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Ted Schwerzler

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  1. While the offseason can be a slog from the perspective of a fan looking for news across the Major League Baseball landscape, at no point does the stove get hotter than during the Winter Meetings. Expect things to heat up for the Twins as they head to the Meetings Dec. 4-7, in Nashville. Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports Derek Falvey hasn’t offered much in the way of concrete plans for Rocco Baldelli’s 2024 club thus far. We have heard how uncertainty regarding a new broadcasting deal will impact the payroll. There have been rumors of veteran players whom the Twins could make available. The team has watched three talented pitchers sign elsewhere as free agents. Subtractions (and speculation about them) abound, but there haven't yet been additions or replacements. The ball has to get rolling at some point, though. What are a few focal points when teams convene during baseball’s offseason get-together? Do the Twins Make a Move? A year ago, the Minnesota Twins were active before the Winter Meetings. On November 18, they traded Gio Urshela to the Los Angeles Angels for Alejandro Hidalgo, and followed that up by acquiring Kyle Farmer from the Cincinnati Reds for Casey Legumina. A few minor-league deals happened earlier in the month, but Christian Vazquez didn’t agree to their first free-agent deal until December 16. Joey Gallo then followed suit not long after. Unfortunately, there isn’t a condensed, football- or basketball-style free-agent frenzy in baseball, as is the case in other sports. We saw a one after the lockout was lifted a couple of years ago, but traditionally, the hot stove heats up most during the Winter Meetings, and simmers (rather than boiling aggressively) throughout the winter. As Minnesota looks to scale back payroll, how aggressive they will be on the free agency front remains to be seen. This front office has traditionally waited out the market, but they could look to spend the dollars they have allocated early and create a modicum of certainty. The Twins shouldn’t be considered prominent players for the biggest names on the open market, and there was evidence of that in allowing Sonny Gray to play elsewhere for $75 million in total guarantees from St. Louis. Finding players to do one-year deals this early on in the winter can be tough, but it may be where Minnesota looks to shoot their shot. What Groundwork is Laid for a Trade? More than the free-agent market, it stands to reason that the front office will be active in making trades. Darren Wolfson has mentioned on Twitter that the trade market is the team's focus, and the groundwork for any deal could be months in the making. The Twins have holes in the rotation and center field, where some intriguing options could be available from other organizations. A year ago, there were rumblings of a Luis Arraez swap to the Miami Marlins for weeks before it happened. Ultimately, the Twins landed their new ace, Pablo Lopez, but the names exchanged in that deal shifted multiple times before it eventually came to fruition. The Winter Meetings are a place for those conversations to ramp up, and while the deal may not come together during the week, many decisions can be traced back to it. Does a Rule 5 Selection Happen? The Twins protected four players from the Rule 5 Draft when they added Yunior Severino, Jair Camargo, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Austin Martin to their 40-man roster. Each of them should have been considered locks, but that leaves a couple of additional players exposed to the opposition. DaShawn Keirsey played at a high level during 2023 and looked the part of a big-league outfielder for the St. Paul Saints. Maybe Anthony Prato, Michael Helman, or Andrew Bechtold interests a team. Conversely, the Twins could add a player, especially if suppressing payroll is a focal point. A Rule 5 addition would come with cost certainty, and hitting on a pre-arb player would also have future ramifications regarding raises and team control. There don’t seem to be many straightforward paths for a player to stick all year with Minnesota, but an extra bullpen arm or utility player might be worthwhile. Not every player turns into Johan Santana, but finding another Ryan Pressly or your version of Akil Baddoo, Tyler Wells, or someone similar would be a boost. What Happens to the Competition? So far, the most aggressive team in the AL Central has been the Detroit Tigers. They locked up former Minnesota starter Kenta Maeda on a two-year deal. A.J. Hinch’s club has young talent like Riley Greene, Tarik Skubal, and Spencer Torkelson. They have money to spend, with Miguel Cabrera’s deal also coming off the books. How much do the Tigers continue to spend, and are they hesitant to go big after getting burned by Javier Baez? Expect a selloff to happen for the Chicago White Sox, and a transition in the clubhouse seems logical there. Where does their former shortstop Tim Anderson end up, and how much belief is there that he can bounce back? They did bring in Paul DeJong to take over the position, but will they also be replacing Luis Robert or Dylan Cease after dealing either player for a prospect haul? Cleveland remains a wild card, in that they are twisting in the wind. Jose Ramirez isn’t going anywhere, but what type of talent will he have around him? Will the Guardians spend any money, or will they be focused on finding another Kyle Manzardo-type return from someone interested in Shane Bieber? Does Ohtani Choose the Central? The greatest free agent in Major League Baseball history will sign a contract this offseason, but for how much and where Shohei Ohtani lands remains to be seen. He has been linked heavily to the Los Angeles Dodgers, and the Angels say they’ll try to keep him. Maybe the San Francisco Giants make sense, and are the Seattle Mariners being truthful in opting out of his courtship? There has been talk of the Blue Jays wanting to bring Ohtani north of the border, but the Texas Rangers could have interest in bringing him down south. We haven’t heard any links to the AL Central, and it seems unlikely for him to wind up in the Midwest, but it would send shockwaves to see the dual-threat talent playing routinely against the Twins for the next decade. What are you most interested in seeing take place during the Winter Meetings? What are you hoping the Minnesota Twins do? Share your thoughts in the comments below. View full article
  2. Derek Falvey hasn’t offered much in the way of concrete plans for Rocco Baldelli’s 2024 club thus far. We have heard how uncertainty regarding a new broadcasting deal will impact the payroll. There have been rumors of veteran players whom the Twins could make available. The team has watched three talented pitchers sign elsewhere as free agents. Subtractions (and speculation about them) abound, but there haven't yet been additions or replacements. The ball has to get rolling at some point, though. What are a few focal points when teams convene during baseball’s offseason get-together? Do the Twins Make a Move? A year ago, the Minnesota Twins were active before the Winter Meetings. On November 18, they traded Gio Urshela to the Los Angeles Angels for Alejandro Hidalgo, and followed that up by acquiring Kyle Farmer from the Cincinnati Reds for Casey Legumina. A few minor-league deals happened earlier in the month, but Christian Vazquez didn’t agree to their first free-agent deal until December 16. Joey Gallo then followed suit not long after. Unfortunately, there isn’t a condensed, football- or basketball-style free-agent frenzy in baseball, as is the case in other sports. We saw a one after the lockout was lifted a couple of years ago, but traditionally, the hot stove heats up most during the Winter Meetings, and simmers (rather than boiling aggressively) throughout the winter. As Minnesota looks to scale back payroll, how aggressive they will be on the free agency front remains to be seen. This front office has traditionally waited out the market, but they could look to spend the dollars they have allocated early and create a modicum of certainty. The Twins shouldn’t be considered prominent players for the biggest names on the open market, and there was evidence of that in allowing Sonny Gray to play elsewhere for $75 million in total guarantees from St. Louis. Finding players to do one-year deals this early on in the winter can be tough, but it may be where Minnesota looks to shoot their shot. What Groundwork is Laid for a Trade? More than the free-agent market, it stands to reason that the front office will be active in making trades. Darren Wolfson has mentioned on Twitter that the trade market is the team's focus, and the groundwork for any deal could be months in the making. The Twins have holes in the rotation and center field, where some intriguing options could be available from other organizations. A year ago, there were rumblings of a Luis Arraez swap to the Miami Marlins for weeks before it happened. Ultimately, the Twins landed their new ace, Pablo Lopez, but the names exchanged in that deal shifted multiple times before it eventually came to fruition. The Winter Meetings are a place for those conversations to ramp up, and while the deal may not come together during the week, many decisions can be traced back to it. Does a Rule 5 Selection Happen? The Twins protected four players from the Rule 5 Draft when they added Yunior Severino, Jair Camargo, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Austin Martin to their 40-man roster. Each of them should have been considered locks, but that leaves a couple of additional players exposed to the opposition. DaShawn Keirsey played at a high level during 2023 and looked the part of a big-league outfielder for the St. Paul Saints. Maybe Anthony Prato, Michael Helman, or Andrew Bechtold interests a team. Conversely, the Twins could add a player, especially if suppressing payroll is a focal point. A Rule 5 addition would come with cost certainty, and hitting on a pre-arb player would also have future ramifications regarding raises and team control. There don’t seem to be many straightforward paths for a player to stick all year with Minnesota, but an extra bullpen arm or utility player might be worthwhile. Not every player turns into Johan Santana, but finding another Ryan Pressly or your version of Akil Baddoo, Tyler Wells, or someone similar would be a boost. What Happens to the Competition? So far, the most aggressive team in the AL Central has been the Detroit Tigers. They locked up former Minnesota starter Kenta Maeda on a two-year deal. A.J. Hinch’s club has young talent like Riley Greene, Tarik Skubal, and Spencer Torkelson. They have money to spend, with Miguel Cabrera’s deal also coming off the books. How much do the Tigers continue to spend, and are they hesitant to go big after getting burned by Javier Baez? Expect a selloff to happen for the Chicago White Sox, and a transition in the clubhouse seems logical there. Where does their former shortstop Tim Anderson end up, and how much belief is there that he can bounce back? They did bring in Paul DeJong to take over the position, but will they also be replacing Luis Robert or Dylan Cease after dealing either player for a prospect haul? Cleveland remains a wild card, in that they are twisting in the wind. Jose Ramirez isn’t going anywhere, but what type of talent will he have around him? Will the Guardians spend any money, or will they be focused on finding another Kyle Manzardo-type return from someone interested in Shane Bieber? Does Ohtani Choose the Central? The greatest free agent in Major League Baseball history will sign a contract this offseason, but for how much and where Shohei Ohtani lands remains to be seen. He has been linked heavily to the Los Angeles Dodgers, and the Angels say they’ll try to keep him. Maybe the San Francisco Giants make sense, and are the Seattle Mariners being truthful in opting out of his courtship? There has been talk of the Blue Jays wanting to bring Ohtani north of the border, but the Texas Rangers could have interest in bringing him down south. We haven’t heard any links to the AL Central, and it seems unlikely for him to wind up in the Midwest, but it would send shockwaves to see the dual-threat talent playing routinely against the Twins for the next decade. What are you most interested in seeing take place during the Winter Meetings? What are you hoping the Minnesota Twins do? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
  3. I don't think it really matters what positions get paid. The pitching not being one of them is reflective of astute development and trading.
  4. Keller is 27 and a free agent after 2025. Is he really going to be there when they are ready to compete? I think banking on Kirilloff in any form is about as trustworthy as Buxton at this point. Hoskins is the lone big dollar addition above, and a $138M total bill is still over $20M down from 2023.
  5. The Minnesota Twins have a few places to add this offseason, and if they want to repeat as winners of the American League Central Division, they’ll need to get things right yet again. Derek Falvey is operating with a different payroll, but there is a natural avenue to be better while staying cheaper. Image courtesy of Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports Last season, the Minnesota Twins front office provided Rocco Baldelli with a franchise-record Opening Day payroll. It was a raise on the pocketbooks for another year and has been consistently moving that way for a while. With decreasing television revenues, it always made sense Minnesota may dial things back. Beyond that, though, having the possibility of ten players all pre-arbitration and making a league minimum of $740,000, dialing back was just part of an expected reset. Using the Twins Daily Payroll Tool this is the starting point I am operating from. Working with the parameters we know now, buckle up for the moves I would make before Opening Day. 1. Sign Rhys Hoskins for two years and $40 million This is probably a bit on the high side for Hoskins, as I’d prefer to get him at $18 million annually, but the Twins should do what they can to make him say no. They need a right-handed bat. Check. They need a middle-of-the-order bat. Check. They need a serious player at first base. Check. Hoskins checks so many boxes for Minnesota that it becomes difficult not to love that fit. He costs money rather than prospects, as Pete Alonso would, and takes significant pressure off any expectations for Alex Kirilloff. Coming off a knee injury that kept him out all of last season, there shouldn’t be any concerns in the future, and he doesn’t hamstring the roster construction in any way. 2. Trade Matt Wallner, Yasser Mercedes, and Andrew Bechtold to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Mitch Keller and Canaan Smith-Njigba Moving Wallner, as a Minnesota prospect right after his debut, won’t be well received. Getting Keller, a Cedar Rapids prospect, after his first All-Star Game might help to soften the blow. Wallner is penciled in to start as Minnesota’s left fielder, but there’s an immediate alternative in the form of Trevor Larnach. You could make the case to include Emmanuel Rodriguez, but his ceiling is substantially higher, and Keller only has two years of team control left. Mercedes is only 19 and made his stateside debut in 2023. He has incredible tools but is raw as a prospect. Bechtold is at Triple-A and plays every position, including pitcher. Acquiring Smith-Njigba in the deal, whose brother is the Seattle Seahawks wide receiver, also gives Minnesota another outfield option. He isn’t a free agent until 2029, but has fallen down the Pirates depth chart despite being on the 40-man roster. He posted an .839 OPS at Triple-A in 2023 and will be 25 years old in 2024. 3. Trade Kyle Farmer to the St. Louis Cardinals for Dylan Carlson Minnesota tender Farmer a contract not because they intend to keep a backup at nearly $7 million in 2024 but because the shortstop class in free agency is horrible, and he has the talent to start. Sending Farmer to the Cardinals gives them an immediate veteran alongside Nolan Arenado and shores up their roster should they keep Paul Goldschmidt in the final year of his deal. Prospect Masyn Winn is waiting in the wings, but he posted just a 29 OPS+ in his first 37 games last season, and this would allow him more time to develop. Carlson is a name the Twins have been tied to previously, and he has former top-10 prospect allure to him. The luster has worn off, but he hit 18 home runs while finishing third in Rookie of the Year voting just two years ago. Carlson was hurt some in 2023, but even at depreciated production in 2022, he posted a 99 OPS+ across 128 games. The Twins may unlock more production from him, and he provides a switch-hitting bat that is substantially better against lefties. He could be the Byron Buxton insurance Minnesota needs to replace Michael A. Taylor or become a high-quality bench option. 4. Sign Harrison Bader for one year and $7 million We saw last season that having a viable full-time starting centerfield option alongside Buxton is a must. Given the uncertainty of health at the centerfield position for Minnesota, having a couple of guys makes sense. Cody Bellinger is the gold standard, but that isn’t going to fit from a logic or dollars standpoint. Kevin Kiermaier could be an option, but coming off a strong year for the Blue Jays, he’s much more likely to get a multi-year deal. Taylor should be paid handsomely after his season with Minnesota, but Bader could potentially be had on a prove-it deal. Looking at some projections and the fit with Taylor leaving via free agency, Bader would be a seamless transition for the Twins. He plays at a Gold Glove-caliber defensively, and while he doesn’t bring much to the table offensively (77 OPS+ since 2022) at this point, he was exactly league average by OPS across his first 451 major league games. He has also gone 37/43 in his last two seasons of steal attempts, and replacing that for Baldelli would be beneficial. 5. Sign Matt Moore for one year and $6 million By payroll measures, this pushes the total dollars close to the high end of where Minnesota is projected to be, and that may not work. I’d love to see Lou Trivino, but he won’t be ready until midway through 2024 and may wait until then to sign. Dakota Hudson isn’t a reliever, and while Spencer Turnbull could be used as a long man or depth starter, pushing the envelope at the back end of Minnesota’s pen makes sense. Moore was designated for assignment by the Los Angeles Angels, and Minnesota put in a claim for him, but he was awarded to the Cleveland Guardians. After Cleveland fell out of it, Moore was claimed by the Miami Marlins. He made $7.55 million last year, and a similar contract makes sense as he will be in his age-35 season. Moore wasn’t as good in 2023 as he was with the Rangers in 2022, but his 2.56 ERA substantiated the strong transition to relief. The Twins bullpen could have five players making the league minimum, so adding the largest contract since Addison Reed could make sense even for a front office that has avoided spending on that group. There may be a consideration for trading Nick Gordon, as Willi Castro has surpassed him for the main utility role. That said, he’s going to command a little over the league minimum and was very good in the Castro role a year ago when healthy. If he gets to the point of ineffectiveness, there’s no reason he can’t be released at some point during the year. At that time, Austin Martin may be ready for the same type of role. Along with Polanco, Max Kepler’s name will be heard this offseason, as shedding him would result in a $10 million gain for the books. How the Twins handle the outfield configuration concerning Kepler, Larnach, and Wallner should be very interesting, but it’s Kepler’s 2023 that has me intrigued. He decided to lift the ball over the shift rather than hitting through it, and unlike in 2019, this time, it didn’t have the help of a juiced baseball. Kepler is still a great defender, and keeping him throughout his extension makes sense. With the dust settling there, the Twins would be on the hook for a $138 million Opening Day payroll. Of course, that will rise throughout the season as incentives are hit, but they could also ship players if things go sideways. Cutting further could be done with a similar talent at a lesser amount than Moore, but a $140 million bill is still nearly a $20 million savings from 2023. Unfortunately, the franchise isn’t run with a bit more spending correlation to the talent present or expectations in front of them, but this is maybe the best of both worlds. Losing the television contract means those dollars will need to come elsewhere, but even if taken over by a new entity, $30 million in revenues for 2024 would represent almost a halving of what was considered among the worst broadcast deals in the sport previously. No one should be crying poor here, and the Twins still get to field a team capable of making a run for the division and beyond. What are your thoughts? What would you do differently? Give it a try for real using the Twins Daily Payroll Tool here. View full article
  6. Last season, the Minnesota Twins front office provided Rocco Baldelli with a franchise-record Opening Day payroll. It was a raise on the pocketbooks for another year and has been consistently moving that way for a while. With decreasing television revenues, it always made sense Minnesota may dial things back. Beyond that, though, having the possibility of ten players all pre-arbitration and making a league minimum of $740,000, dialing back was just part of an expected reset. Using the Twins Daily Payroll Tool this is the starting point I am operating from. Working with the parameters we know now, buckle up for the moves I would make before Opening Day. 1. Sign Rhys Hoskins for two years and $40 million This is probably a bit on the high side for Hoskins, as I’d prefer to get him at $18 million annually, but the Twins should do what they can to make him say no. They need a right-handed bat. Check. They need a middle-of-the-order bat. Check. They need a serious player at first base. Check. Hoskins checks so many boxes for Minnesota that it becomes difficult not to love that fit. He costs money rather than prospects, as Pete Alonso would, and takes significant pressure off any expectations for Alex Kirilloff. Coming off a knee injury that kept him out all of last season, there shouldn’t be any concerns in the future, and he doesn’t hamstring the roster construction in any way. 2. Trade Matt Wallner, Yasser Mercedes, and Andrew Bechtold to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Mitch Keller and Canaan Smith-Njigba Moving Wallner, as a Minnesota prospect right after his debut, won’t be well received. Getting Keller, a Cedar Rapids prospect, after his first All-Star Game might help to soften the blow. Wallner is penciled in to start as Minnesota’s left fielder, but there’s an immediate alternative in the form of Trevor Larnach. You could make the case to include Emmanuel Rodriguez, but his ceiling is substantially higher, and Keller only has two years of team control left. Mercedes is only 19 and made his stateside debut in 2023. He has incredible tools but is raw as a prospect. Bechtold is at Triple-A and plays every position, including pitcher. Acquiring Smith-Njigba in the deal, whose brother is the Seattle Seahawks wide receiver, also gives Minnesota another outfield option. He isn’t a free agent until 2029, but has fallen down the Pirates depth chart despite being on the 40-man roster. He posted an .839 OPS at Triple-A in 2023 and will be 25 years old in 2024. 3. Trade Kyle Farmer to the St. Louis Cardinals for Dylan Carlson Minnesota tender Farmer a contract not because they intend to keep a backup at nearly $7 million in 2024 but because the shortstop class in free agency is horrible, and he has the talent to start. Sending Farmer to the Cardinals gives them an immediate veteran alongside Nolan Arenado and shores up their roster should they keep Paul Goldschmidt in the final year of his deal. Prospect Masyn Winn is waiting in the wings, but he posted just a 29 OPS+ in his first 37 games last season, and this would allow him more time to develop. Carlson is a name the Twins have been tied to previously, and he has former top-10 prospect allure to him. The luster has worn off, but he hit 18 home runs while finishing third in Rookie of the Year voting just two years ago. Carlson was hurt some in 2023, but even at depreciated production in 2022, he posted a 99 OPS+ across 128 games. The Twins may unlock more production from him, and he provides a switch-hitting bat that is substantially better against lefties. He could be the Byron Buxton insurance Minnesota needs to replace Michael A. Taylor or become a high-quality bench option. 4. Sign Harrison Bader for one year and $7 million We saw last season that having a viable full-time starting centerfield option alongside Buxton is a must. Given the uncertainty of health at the centerfield position for Minnesota, having a couple of guys makes sense. Cody Bellinger is the gold standard, but that isn’t going to fit from a logic or dollars standpoint. Kevin Kiermaier could be an option, but coming off a strong year for the Blue Jays, he’s much more likely to get a multi-year deal. Taylor should be paid handsomely after his season with Minnesota, but Bader could potentially be had on a prove-it deal. Looking at some projections and the fit with Taylor leaving via free agency, Bader would be a seamless transition for the Twins. He plays at a Gold Glove-caliber defensively, and while he doesn’t bring much to the table offensively (77 OPS+ since 2022) at this point, he was exactly league average by OPS across his first 451 major league games. He has also gone 37/43 in his last two seasons of steal attempts, and replacing that for Baldelli would be beneficial. 5. Sign Matt Moore for one year and $6 million By payroll measures, this pushes the total dollars close to the high end of where Minnesota is projected to be, and that may not work. I’d love to see Lou Trivino, but he won’t be ready until midway through 2024 and may wait until then to sign. Dakota Hudson isn’t a reliever, and while Spencer Turnbull could be used as a long man or depth starter, pushing the envelope at the back end of Minnesota’s pen makes sense. Moore was designated for assignment by the Los Angeles Angels, and Minnesota put in a claim for him, but he was awarded to the Cleveland Guardians. After Cleveland fell out of it, Moore was claimed by the Miami Marlins. He made $7.55 million last year, and a similar contract makes sense as he will be in his age-35 season. Moore wasn’t as good in 2023 as he was with the Rangers in 2022, but his 2.56 ERA substantiated the strong transition to relief. The Twins bullpen could have five players making the league minimum, so adding the largest contract since Addison Reed could make sense even for a front office that has avoided spending on that group. There may be a consideration for trading Nick Gordon, as Willi Castro has surpassed him for the main utility role. That said, he’s going to command a little over the league minimum and was very good in the Castro role a year ago when healthy. If he gets to the point of ineffectiveness, there’s no reason he can’t be released at some point during the year. At that time, Austin Martin may be ready for the same type of role. Along with Polanco, Max Kepler’s name will be heard this offseason, as shedding him would result in a $10 million gain for the books. How the Twins handle the outfield configuration concerning Kepler, Larnach, and Wallner should be very interesting, but it’s Kepler’s 2023 that has me intrigued. He decided to lift the ball over the shift rather than hitting through it, and unlike in 2019, this time, it didn’t have the help of a juiced baseball. Kepler is still a great defender, and keeping him throughout his extension makes sense. With the dust settling there, the Twins would be on the hook for a $138 million Opening Day payroll. Of course, that will rise throughout the season as incentives are hit, but they could also ship players if things go sideways. Cutting further could be done with a similar talent at a lesser amount than Moore, but a $140 million bill is still nearly a $20 million savings from 2023. Unfortunately, the franchise isn’t run with a bit more spending correlation to the talent present or expectations in front of them, but this is maybe the best of both worlds. Losing the television contract means those dollars will need to come elsewhere, but even if taken over by a new entity, $30 million in revenues for 2024 would represent almost a halving of what was considered among the worst broadcast deals in the sport previously. No one should be crying poor here, and the Twins still get to field a team capable of making a run for the division and beyond. What are your thoughts? What would you do differently? Give it a try for real using the Twins Daily Payroll Tool here.
  7. At this point, the Minnesota Twins have yet to make a significant move this offseason. We have heard plenty about the payroll sliding backward, but does that have anything to do with the front office opting against bringing back Sonny Gray or Kenta Maeda? Image courtesy of Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports Heading into the winter, Derek Falvey’s shopping list was expected to include a right-handed bat, a center fielder, and a starting pitcher. That last item on the list could be the most important, after Rocco Baldelli’s club had one of the better groups in the game a season ago. Minnesota still has depth, but Pablo Lopez will be looking for a running mate. Both Kenta Maeda and Sonny Gray threw substantial innings for the Twins last season. The latter finished runner-up to Gerrit Cole for the American League Cy Young award. That reflected how good of a season he had and indicated the payday he would command from any potential suitor. While Maeda didn’t have the same tier of results, he fared well, and deals for pitchers like Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson paved a path for him to benefit financially. So why didn’t the Twins show a greater desire to retain either of their departing starters? That answer is multi-faceted, but it isn’t exactly complicated. This front office has shied away from paying arms in free agency. That’s a logical stance when you understand that you’re getting someone else’s leftovers. Every free agent is hitting the market because their former employer allowed them to do so, and they are likely doing so at what baseball calls an advanced age. The Twins, under Falvey, have never spent more than $20 million on a starting pitcher, and that was a two-year deal for Michael Pineda that allowed him to bide his time during rehab from Tommy John surgery. Expecting them to change course on that process with Maeda (as he enters his late 30s) or Gray (as he’s paid more based on recent performance) never seemed like a good bet. Realistically, the Twins didn’t retain the services of either Gray or Maeda because the length of each deal wouldn’t make sense. Maeda finally landed a deal that wasn’t full of incentives, and he’ll make a base salary nearly the same as the eight-year deal he signed when coming over from Japan. A total guarantee of $24 million didn’t need to be prohibitive for Minnesota, but their focus was on Maeda being a one-year arm for them, if he was to be back at all. Scott Boras was set on finding at least a two-year deal, and with the Tigers having more of a need, they were the team that bit. Regarding Gray, Minnesota was interested in making a short-term deal. They proved the earnestness of that sentiment by making the Qualifying Offer. Of course, Gray would never accept that one-year pact, so it was a moot point, but the Twins would have gladly paid $25 million for a season or two of his services. The problem is that the market was always going to give Gray a third year, and Minnesota being interested in that seemed like a non-starter. He hasn’t been the most durable arm throughout his career, and it’s unlikely that will change for the better as he ages. St. Louis had to find their ace, and pairing talent with Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt before it got too late was necessary. Now, the front office is tasked with replacing the innings and starts made by both Maeda and Gray. They went into the offseason assuming that would be the case, and now it has become a reality. That the Twins will stand pat remains highly unlikely, and expecting them to add someone like Dylan Bundy, J.A. Happ, or Matt Shoemaker doesn’t seem realistic, either. They are already exploring the trade market, and it seems most likely that they will make their addition that way. Whom they land remains uncertain, but plenty of fine candidates are out there. After a successful run in 2023, it may have been fun to run it back. A similar outcome with everyone repeating success or performing at a higher level wouldn't have been probable, though, and Minnesota must carve a new path toward more optimal results. Maeda was a fun way to get involved in the Mookie Betts excitement with the Dodgers, and acquiring Gray was a well-executed move that has come full circle. It’s okay to be sad that both are gone, while understanding that the right decision was made. View full article
  8. Heading into the winter, Derek Falvey’s shopping list was expected to include a right-handed bat, a center fielder, and a starting pitcher. That last item on the list could be the most important, after Rocco Baldelli’s club had one of the better groups in the game a season ago. Minnesota still has depth, but Pablo Lopez will be looking for a running mate. Both Kenta Maeda and Sonny Gray threw substantial innings for the Twins last season. The latter finished runner-up to Gerrit Cole for the American League Cy Young award. That reflected how good of a season he had and indicated the payday he would command from any potential suitor. While Maeda didn’t have the same tier of results, he fared well, and deals for pitchers like Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson paved a path for him to benefit financially. So why didn’t the Twins show a greater desire to retain either of their departing starters? That answer is multi-faceted, but it isn’t exactly complicated. This front office has shied away from paying arms in free agency. That’s a logical stance when you understand that you’re getting someone else’s leftovers. Every free agent is hitting the market because their former employer allowed them to do so, and they are likely doing so at what baseball calls an advanced age. The Twins, under Falvey, have never spent more than $20 million on a starting pitcher, and that was a two-year deal for Michael Pineda that allowed him to bide his time during rehab from Tommy John surgery. Expecting them to change course on that process with Maeda (as he enters his late 30s) or Gray (as he’s paid more based on recent performance) never seemed like a good bet. Realistically, the Twins didn’t retain the services of either Gray or Maeda because the length of each deal wouldn’t make sense. Maeda finally landed a deal that wasn’t full of incentives, and he’ll make a base salary nearly the same as the eight-year deal he signed when coming over from Japan. A total guarantee of $24 million didn’t need to be prohibitive for Minnesota, but their focus was on Maeda being a one-year arm for them, if he was to be back at all. Scott Boras was set on finding at least a two-year deal, and with the Tigers having more of a need, they were the team that bit. Regarding Gray, Minnesota was interested in making a short-term deal. They proved the earnestness of that sentiment by making the Qualifying Offer. Of course, Gray would never accept that one-year pact, so it was a moot point, but the Twins would have gladly paid $25 million for a season or two of his services. The problem is that the market was always going to give Gray a third year, and Minnesota being interested in that seemed like a non-starter. He hasn’t been the most durable arm throughout his career, and it’s unlikely that will change for the better as he ages. St. Louis had to find their ace, and pairing talent with Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt before it got too late was necessary. Now, the front office is tasked with replacing the innings and starts made by both Maeda and Gray. They went into the offseason assuming that would be the case, and now it has become a reality. That the Twins will stand pat remains highly unlikely, and expecting them to add someone like Dylan Bundy, J.A. Happ, or Matt Shoemaker doesn’t seem realistic, either. They are already exploring the trade market, and it seems most likely that they will make their addition that way. Whom they land remains uncertain, but plenty of fine candidates are out there. After a successful run in 2023, it may have been fun to run it back. A similar outcome with everyone repeating success or performing at a higher level wouldn't have been probable, though, and Minnesota must carve a new path toward more optimal results. Maeda was a fun way to get involved in the Mookie Betts excitement with the Dodgers, and acquiring Gray was a well-executed move that has come full circle. It’s okay to be sad that both are gone, while understanding that the right decision was made.
  9. The Baseball Writers Association of America recently unveiled the 2024 Major League Baseball Hall of Fame ballot. With voting taking place this offseason and enshrinement set for the summer, it could be fun for Minnesota Twins fans looking to celebrate Joe Mauer. Since his playing days, Joe Mauer has been recognized with a few key accolades. The Minnesota Twins wasted no time making sure no player in franchise history would again wear the number 7. Last season, they brought Mauer back onto the field and inducted him into the franchise Hall of Fame with a ceremony at Target Field. The only thing left is to create a bronze bust in Cooperstown's plaque room, which in my opinion should happen during the first voting cycle. No player in franchise history seems to have their production more scrutinized than Mauer. From a fanbase that continually clamors for ownership to spend money, his record-breaking contract was primarily held against him despite providing surplus value and having to move positions following a career-threatening injury. Beyond that, his mild-mannered personality doesn’t often elicit significant favor, and his true talent somehow flew under the radar. As a catcher, Mauer was among the best to play the game. He won three batting titles from behind the plate, something no other player has done in major league history. At the most demanding position on a baseball diamond, Mauer won three offensive awards that tested durability and the chief offensive ability in the sport. While he was not the current iteration of Luis Arraez, Mauer earned his batting titles through plate discipline, consistency, and a picturesque left-handed swing. He never slid defensively during that time either, racking up three Gold Glove awards while needing to compete with Ivan Rodriguez and Matt Wieters. The move to first base is where Mauer’s Hall of Fame candidacy hits a snag. His offensive production dropped mightily as a corner infielder, but the move was forced as a result of his traumatic brain injury. Although he never fit the bill for the position, hitting just 38 home runs after moving to first full-time, he remained an above-average offensive producer with a 105 OPS+ across 680 games. His .278 average in that span was plenty respectable, and he still finished with a career .306 average. Beyond transitioning to an entirely new position at age 31, Mauer again found a way to excel. He recorded 1,000 innings at first base in 2015 and posted a -4 DRS (defensive runs saved). In 2016, he turned that on its head by tallying 7 DRS and 9 outs above average (OAA in the first year Statcast recorded the metric). By 2017, he was worth 13 DRS and 11 OAA, making him the best defensive player at the position statistically. Antiquated voting gave Eric Hosmer the Gold Glove as a reflection of his offensive prowess despite owning -5 DRS and OAA numbers. Had Mauer been correctly given the award, he would have been the third player in major league history to win a Gold Gloves at multiple positions, joining Darin Erstad and Placido Polanco. So often, Mauer’s case for Cooperstown is compared to that of St. Louis Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina. Despite having been a historically below-average offensive producer, the latter is seen as a surefire first-ballot candidate because of his defensive prowess and team accolades. Mauer is often denigrated for his time spent at first base after being forced out behind the plate. When voting for the first time, though, it’s not about comparison to outside noise as much as it should be a yes or no. Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system, which focuses on the worthiness of Hall of Fame enshrinement, places Mauer seventh among catchers. The six above him are all in, and Bill Dickey, along with six others behind him, are in as well. With a ballot introducing only Adrian Beltre as a sure inductee and Todd Helton as a worthy holdover, the ability to vote for ten players should have Mauer’s as an easy name to check. Last week, Cody Christie looked at the ballot, where Mauer falls amongst his competition, and the case he has. The outline seems to set the record relatively straight. We haven’t seen the acceptance of controversial players, whether steroids or other transgressions, be moved in, but Mauer has none to overcome. His most significant detriment may have been getting hurt and taking a payday that rubs some the wrong way. He was the Sandy Koufax or Johan Santana of his time behind the plate, and he continued on from that. What ballot a player gets in on is as inconsequential as forcing a guy to wait for the sake of merit. You can track the results with Ryan Thibodaux on X at @NotMrTibbs. If done right, this one shouldn’t be hard. Vote Mauer and call Joe in January. View full article
  10. Since his playing days, Joe Mauer has been recognized with a few key accolades. The Minnesota Twins wasted no time making sure no player in franchise history would again wear the number 7. Last season, they brought Mauer back onto the field and inducted him into the franchise Hall of Fame with a ceremony at Target Field. The only thing left is to create a bronze bust in Cooperstown's plaque room, which in my opinion should happen during the first voting cycle. No player in franchise history seems to have their production more scrutinized than Mauer. From a fanbase that continually clamors for ownership to spend money, his record-breaking contract was primarily held against him despite providing surplus value and having to move positions following a career-threatening injury. Beyond that, his mild-mannered personality doesn’t often elicit significant favor, and his true talent somehow flew under the radar. As a catcher, Mauer was among the best to play the game. He won three batting titles from behind the plate, something no other player has done in major league history. At the most demanding position on a baseball diamond, Mauer won three offensive awards that tested durability and the chief offensive ability in the sport. While he was not the current iteration of Luis Arraez, Mauer earned his batting titles through plate discipline, consistency, and a picturesque left-handed swing. He never slid defensively during that time either, racking up three Gold Glove awards while needing to compete with Ivan Rodriguez and Matt Wieters. The move to first base is where Mauer’s Hall of Fame candidacy hits a snag. His offensive production dropped mightily as a corner infielder, but the move was forced as a result of his traumatic brain injury. Although he never fit the bill for the position, hitting just 38 home runs after moving to first full-time, he remained an above-average offensive producer with a 105 OPS+ across 680 games. His .278 average in that span was plenty respectable, and he still finished with a career .306 average. Beyond transitioning to an entirely new position at age 31, Mauer again found a way to excel. He recorded 1,000 innings at first base in 2015 and posted a -4 DRS (defensive runs saved). In 2016, he turned that on its head by tallying 7 DRS and 9 outs above average (OAA in the first year Statcast recorded the metric). By 2017, he was worth 13 DRS and 11 OAA, making him the best defensive player at the position statistically. Antiquated voting gave Eric Hosmer the Gold Glove as a reflection of his offensive prowess despite owning -5 DRS and OAA numbers. Had Mauer been correctly given the award, he would have been the third player in major league history to win a Gold Gloves at multiple positions, joining Darin Erstad and Placido Polanco. So often, Mauer’s case for Cooperstown is compared to that of St. Louis Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina. Despite having been a historically below-average offensive producer, the latter is seen as a surefire first-ballot candidate because of his defensive prowess and team accolades. Mauer is often denigrated for his time spent at first base after being forced out behind the plate. When voting for the first time, though, it’s not about comparison to outside noise as much as it should be a yes or no. Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system, which focuses on the worthiness of Hall of Fame enshrinement, places Mauer seventh among catchers. The six above him are all in, and Bill Dickey, along with six others behind him, are in as well. With a ballot introducing only Adrian Beltre as a sure inductee and Todd Helton as a worthy holdover, the ability to vote for ten players should have Mauer’s as an easy name to check. Last week, Cody Christie looked at the ballot, where Mauer falls amongst his competition, and the case he has. The outline seems to set the record relatively straight. We haven’t seen the acceptance of controversial players, whether steroids or other transgressions, be moved in, but Mauer has none to overcome. His most significant detriment may have been getting hurt and taking a payday that rubs some the wrong way. He was the Sandy Koufax or Johan Santana of his time behind the plate, and he continued on from that. What ballot a player gets in on is as inconsequential as forcing a guy to wait for the sake of merit. You can track the results with Ryan Thibodaux on X at @NotMrTibbs. If done right, this one shouldn’t be hard. Vote Mauer and call Joe in January.
  11. The Minnesota Twins have an unfortunate issue in center field. Despite having understandably paid Byron Buxton, the inability of the talented outfielder to stay healthy has created a hole on the grass. Derek Falvey adequately addressed the issue in 2023, but they must follow a similar blueprint in 2024. Image courtesy of Kirby Lee, USA Today When the Twins front office gave Byron Buxton his $100 million deal, they did so knowing the discount due to his limited ability was baked in. That never became more prominent than in 2023, when Rocco Baldelli was forced to use his best outfield defender solely as a designated hitter. As his aching knee never improved, the defensive position became that of Michael A. Taylor. At this moment, Taylor is still a free agent and is far from a lock to find a re-up with his recent team. Buxton is coming off yet another knee procedure, and what he can provide coming into the year has never been more murky. Needing a legitimate starting-caliber option, it’s an area to be addressed. Cody Bellinger isn’t a realistic free agent target, and while either Harrison Bader or Kevin Kiermaier may be, the trade market could also work. Jack Suwinski - Pittsburgh Pirates Easily the most unlikely of the options here, Suwinski is just 25 years old and doesn’t enter arbitration until 2026. However, he plays for the Pirates, and how soon Pittsburgh believes they can contend could make him expendable. They have Paul Skenes coming, and talents like Oneil Cruz, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Henry Davis, and Endy Rodriguez make them intriguing. If Suwinski is seen as part of that core, he will stay. Should Pittsburgh make him available, Suwinski would give the Twins both an immediate and long-term option as a starter. He’s come into his own as a power hitter, but his defensive value is uncertain. He posted ugly DRS (defensive runs saved) numbers this year but did show well by outs above average. As a left-handed player, he’d fit in between Matt Wallner and Max Kepler. Proposed trade: Suwinski for Emmanuel Rodriguez, Brent Headrick, and Josh Winder (Trade Value Simulator says: Slight disadvantage PIT) Tommy Edman - St. Louis Cardinals This one is fun for a couple of reasons. Minnesota has looked into at least a few outfielders with Cardinals ties during recent seasons, and Edman’s brother, Johnny, works as a Data Quality Engineer in the Twins front office. Traditionally an infielder playing shortstop and second base, he was a defensive dynamo in those spots last year. Defensive analytics don’t love him as much this year, but he added centerfield to his repertoire for the first time consistently this year. Similar to Taylor, Edman is about league average offensively at his best. He has hit double-digit homers during all of his full professional seasons. He also steals a bunch of bags, which would help that aspect of Minnesota’s game. There is a lot to like here, and while he will keep getting more expensive in arbitration (he made $4.2 million in 2023), he is under team control for the next two years. Proposed trade: Edman for David Festa and Jordan Balazovic (TVS says: Slight disadvantage STL) Dylan Carlson - St. Louis Cardinals If the price for Edman is too steep, another center fielder from St. Louis could be the fit. Carlson has faded since finishing third in the Rookie of the Year voting in 2021. Injuries kept him out of action for a good portion of the season last year, but this is still a former consensus top-20 prospect. He is under team control through 2026, so there is ample opportunity to get him right if the Twins think they can do that. During 2022, Carlson posted six defensive runs saved and was worth four outs above average. He ranked well by Statcast’s metric last year, but obviously, the sample was much more limited. This would be an upside play for Minnesota, and by starting him every day, they’d certainly be looking for the guy who drew rave reviews as a prospect. Proposed trade: Carlson for Simeon Woods Richardson and Keoni Cavaco (TVS says: Essentially neutral) Jo Adell - Los Angeles Angels Last season, Adell played in the fewest games of his pro career at the major league level. After 88 games and a lackluster 78 OPS+ in 2022, the Angels are forcing Adell to prove he has it before committing to him yet again. Although Mike Trout will eventually move away from center field, it doesn’t seem now is the time for Adell. As a former top-five consensus prospect, Adell’s name is well known. He has struggled to replicate minor league success for Los Angeles, though, and he may benefit from a change of scenery. He’s under team control through 2027, and seeing better K/BB rates at Triple-A Salt Lake last season may be enough to warrant someone giving him some real run. As the Opening Day starter, Adell would be a gamble, but the Twins could strike gold if things click. Proposed trade: Adell for Nick Gordon and Christian MacLeod (TVS says: Slight advantage LAA) Mickey Moniak - Los Angeles Angels The first overall pick in the 2016 Major League Draft, the Twins could add a third such player to their active roster. Joining Royce Lewis and Carlos Correa, Moniak seeks to substantiate his 2023 as a late-blooming breakout. He played in just 85 games for the Angels, but it resulted in a 113 OPS+. The sample sizes are small, but that’s lightyears better than the 35 OPS+ he posted over 66 games in his first three major league seasons. Moniak is probably considered part of the Angels' future plans, but the front office has been largely inept for some time. He was strong defensively in center and would give the Twins another young addition to the roster. Moniak is only 25 and doesn’t hit arbitration until after the upcoming season. Should the resurgence be believed, his addition would be nice for Minnesota. Proposed trade: Moniak for Yasser Mercedes and Trevor Larnach (TVS says: Significant advantage LAA) Which of these names do you feel most excited about? Is there a return that would make you uncomfortable to get one in return? View full article
  12. When the Twins front office gave Byron Buxton his $100 million deal, they did so knowing the discount due to his limited ability was baked in. That never became more prominent than in 2023, when Rocco Baldelli was forced to use his best outfield defender solely as a designated hitter. As his aching knee never improved, the defensive position became that of Michael A. Taylor. At this moment, Taylor is still a free agent and is far from a lock to find a re-up with his recent team. Buxton is coming off yet another knee procedure, and what he can provide coming into the year has never been more murky. Needing a legitimate starting-caliber option, it’s an area to be addressed. Cody Bellinger isn’t a realistic free agent target, and while either Harrison Bader or Kevin Kiermaier may be, the trade market could also work. Jack Suwinski - Pittsburgh Pirates Easily the most unlikely of the options here, Suwinski is just 25 years old and doesn’t enter arbitration until 2026. However, he plays for the Pirates, and how soon Pittsburgh believes they can contend could make him expendable. They have Paul Skenes coming, and talents like Oneil Cruz, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Henry Davis, and Endy Rodriguez make them intriguing. If Suwinski is seen as part of that core, he will stay. Should Pittsburgh make him available, Suwinski would give the Twins both an immediate and long-term option as a starter. He’s come into his own as a power hitter, but his defensive value is uncertain. He posted ugly DRS (defensive runs saved) numbers this year but did show well by outs above average. As a left-handed player, he’d fit in between Matt Wallner and Max Kepler. Proposed trade: Suwinski for Emmanuel Rodriguez, Brent Headrick, and Josh Winder (Trade Value Simulator says: Slight disadvantage PIT) Tommy Edman - St. Louis Cardinals This one is fun for a couple of reasons. Minnesota has looked into at least a few outfielders with Cardinals ties during recent seasons, and Edman’s brother, Johnny, works as a Data Quality Engineer in the Twins front office. Traditionally an infielder playing shortstop and second base, he was a defensive dynamo in those spots last year. Defensive analytics don’t love him as much this year, but he added centerfield to his repertoire for the first time consistently this year. Similar to Taylor, Edman is about league average offensively at his best. He has hit double-digit homers during all of his full professional seasons. He also steals a bunch of bags, which would help that aspect of Minnesota’s game. There is a lot to like here, and while he will keep getting more expensive in arbitration (he made $4.2 million in 2023), he is under team control for the next two years. Proposed trade: Edman for David Festa and Jordan Balazovic (TVS says: Slight disadvantage STL) Dylan Carlson - St. Louis Cardinals If the price for Edman is too steep, another center fielder from St. Louis could be the fit. Carlson has faded since finishing third in the Rookie of the Year voting in 2021. Injuries kept him out of action for a good portion of the season last year, but this is still a former consensus top-20 prospect. He is under team control through 2026, so there is ample opportunity to get him right if the Twins think they can do that. During 2022, Carlson posted six defensive runs saved and was worth four outs above average. He ranked well by Statcast’s metric last year, but obviously, the sample was much more limited. This would be an upside play for Minnesota, and by starting him every day, they’d certainly be looking for the guy who drew rave reviews as a prospect. Proposed trade: Carlson for Simeon Woods Richardson and Keoni Cavaco (TVS says: Essentially neutral) Jo Adell - Los Angeles Angels Last season, Adell played in the fewest games of his pro career at the major league level. After 88 games and a lackluster 78 OPS+ in 2022, the Angels are forcing Adell to prove he has it before committing to him yet again. Although Mike Trout will eventually move away from center field, it doesn’t seem now is the time for Adell. As a former top-five consensus prospect, Adell’s name is well known. He has struggled to replicate minor league success for Los Angeles, though, and he may benefit from a change of scenery. He’s under team control through 2027, and seeing better K/BB rates at Triple-A Salt Lake last season may be enough to warrant someone giving him some real run. As the Opening Day starter, Adell would be a gamble, but the Twins could strike gold if things click. Proposed trade: Adell for Nick Gordon and Christian MacLeod (TVS says: Slight advantage LAA) Mickey Moniak - Los Angeles Angels The first overall pick in the 2016 Major League Draft, the Twins could add a third such player to their active roster. Joining Royce Lewis and Carlos Correa, Moniak seeks to substantiate his 2023 as a late-blooming breakout. He played in just 85 games for the Angels, but it resulted in a 113 OPS+. The sample sizes are small, but that’s lightyears better than the 35 OPS+ he posted over 66 games in his first three major league seasons. Moniak is probably considered part of the Angels' future plans, but the front office has been largely inept for some time. He was strong defensively in center and would give the Twins another young addition to the roster. Moniak is only 25 and doesn’t hit arbitration until after the upcoming season. Should the resurgence be believed, his addition would be nice for Minnesota. Proposed trade: Moniak for Yasser Mercedes and Trevor Larnach (TVS says: Significant advantage LAA) Which of these names do you feel most excited about? Is there a return that would make you uncomfortable to get one in return?
  13. If there was something that the Minnesota Twins appeared to need at the trade deadline last season, it was a right-handed slugger. The lineup was left-handed heavy, and it didn’t help when playing for platoon advantages. They never added that guy, but this offseason is a chance to address the issue. Image courtesy of © Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports For most of last season, Rocco Baldelli found himself with left-handed power in the outfield, with Byron Buxton shelved from defensive usage. Michael A. Taylor was a right-handed centerfielder but was playing for his bat more than anything. Max Kepler, Joey Gallo, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner spent significant time on the corners, each batting from the left side. At first base, Gallo filled in plenty, and the position was destined for Alex Kirilloff. When healthy, the plan would be for Kirilloff to hit for power and average, but we have seen that his health is a question mark at best in recent seasons. Still, with many outfield options at their disposal, Minnesota should be more inclined to add a right-handed option at first base to pair with Kirilloff. Rhys Hoskins will be the popular name on the open market, but four alternatives could be had in a trade. Pete Alonso - New York Mets Former Home Run Derby champion Alonso has hit 37 or more dingers in every full season. The Mets and Steve Cohen don’t need salary relief, but it was communicated to Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander that New York intends to reset in 2024. Alonso is in the final year of team control, so there isn’t much reason not to cash in on him. Alonso has posted at least a 122 OPS+ in each of his big league seasons. He draws a good amount of walks, hits for a passable average, and has power with the best names in baseball. He’s also right-handed and would be platoon-proof should Kirilloff never fully return to form for Minnesota. Proposed trade: Alonso for Yasser Mercedes and Aaron Sabato (Trade Value Simulator says: Slight advantage NYM) Brandon Drury - Los Angeles Angels Signed by the Angels before the 2023 season when they thought there was a chance to win with Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout, Drury watched firsthand as the organization continued to waste talent. His 114 OPS+ was a slight dip from 2022, but he has put up three consecutive strong seasons. The power really has come on the past two years, and he added first base as a key component to his arsenal last year. In the final year of a two-year deal worth $17 million, Drury is being paid just $8.5 million this season. He’s shown neutral splits throughout his career and has experience playing several positions. The Twins could find a much better fit for a little more than Kyle Farmer is expected to make this season. Proposed trade: Drury for Kyle Farmer and Michael Helman (TVS says: Neutral) Ryan Mountcastle - Baltimore Orioles It’s a bit odd to think the Orioles would trade one of their younger players while being in a window of contention, but he’s not a great fit for the new configurations of that ballpark. Should they lean more towards Ryan O’Hearn or others, he’d be a great option, and this summer, Matt Braun lined out why. Under team control through 2026, Mouncastle would have the highest acquisition cost of these options. He owns a career 114 OPS+ and hit 33 home runs just two years ago. Allowing him to yank pitches into the bleachers at Target Field would be much easier, and he has crushed southpaws in his young career. Like Kirilloff, he also has experience in the corner outfield. Proposed trade: Mountcastle for David Festa and Brent Headrick (TVS says: Slight disadvantage BAL) Paul Goldschmidt - St. Louis Cardinals There was plenty of talk at the trade deadline as to whether the Cardinals would sell off. That included Goldschmidt and even murmurs of third baseman Nolan Arenado. Recently our own Nash Walker touched on the idea of Minnesota making a move for Goldschmidt. He fits the profile of a strong right-handed bat that can play first base for the Twins. Goldy won an MVP just a year ago, and while there hasn't been a significant decline in his talent, St. Louis could be inclined to get younger and cheaper with the veteran in the final year of his deal. He's due to make $26 million in 2024, and that could go up to $28 million with incentives, which makes this move tough for the Twins as they look to pull back payroll. Neither Max Kepler or Jorge Polanco are a real fit for a team looking to add youth, so they wouldn't get salary relief here either. Giving up a better prospect could entice St. Louis to throw in money for the salary though. Proposed trade: Goldschmidt for Marco Raya, Jose Salas, and Zebby Matthews Which of these names do you feel most excited about? Is there a return that would make you uncomfortable to get one in return? View full article
  14. For most of last season, Rocco Baldelli found himself with left-handed power in the outfield, with Byron Buxton shelved from defensive usage. Michael A. Taylor was a right-handed centerfielder but was playing for his bat more than anything. Max Kepler, Joey Gallo, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner spent significant time on the corners, each batting from the left side. At first base, Gallo filled in plenty, and the position was destined for Alex Kirilloff. When healthy, the plan would be for Kirilloff to hit for power and average, but we have seen that his health is a question mark at best in recent seasons. Still, with many outfield options at their disposal, Minnesota should be more inclined to add a right-handed option at first base to pair with Kirilloff. Rhys Hoskins will be the popular name on the open market, but four alternatives could be had in a trade. Pete Alonso - New York Mets Former Home Run Derby champion Alonso has hit 37 or more dingers in every full season. The Mets and Steve Cohen don’t need salary relief, but it was communicated to Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander that New York intends to reset in 2024. Alonso is in the final year of team control, so there isn’t much reason not to cash in on him. Alonso has posted at least a 122 OPS+ in each of his big league seasons. He draws a good amount of walks, hits for a passable average, and has power with the best names in baseball. He’s also right-handed and would be platoon-proof should Kirilloff never fully return to form for Minnesota. Proposed trade: Alonso for Yasser Mercedes and Aaron Sabato (Trade Value Simulator says: Slight advantage NYM) Brandon Drury - Los Angeles Angels Signed by the Angels before the 2023 season when they thought there was a chance to win with Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout, Drury watched firsthand as the organization continued to waste talent. His 114 OPS+ was a slight dip from 2022, but he has put up three consecutive strong seasons. The power really has come on the past two years, and he added first base as a key component to his arsenal last year. In the final year of a two-year deal worth $17 million, Drury is being paid just $8.5 million this season. He’s shown neutral splits throughout his career and has experience playing several positions. The Twins could find a much better fit for a little more than Kyle Farmer is expected to make this season. Proposed trade: Drury for Kyle Farmer and Michael Helman (TVS says: Neutral) Ryan Mountcastle - Baltimore Orioles It’s a bit odd to think the Orioles would trade one of their younger players while being in a window of contention, but he’s not a great fit for the new configurations of that ballpark. Should they lean more towards Ryan O’Hearn or others, he’d be a great option, and this summer, Matt Braun lined out why. Under team control through 2026, Mouncastle would have the highest acquisition cost of these options. He owns a career 114 OPS+ and hit 33 home runs just two years ago. Allowing him to yank pitches into the bleachers at Target Field would be much easier, and he has crushed southpaws in his young career. Like Kirilloff, he also has experience in the corner outfield. Proposed trade: Mountcastle for David Festa and Brent Headrick (TVS says: Slight disadvantage BAL) Paul Goldschmidt - St. Louis Cardinals There was plenty of talk at the trade deadline as to whether the Cardinals would sell off. That included Goldschmidt and even murmurs of third baseman Nolan Arenado. Recently our own Nash Walker touched on the idea of Minnesota making a move for Goldschmidt. He fits the profile of a strong right-handed bat that can play first base for the Twins. Goldy won an MVP just a year ago, and while there hasn't been a significant decline in his talent, St. Louis could be inclined to get younger and cheaper with the veteran in the final year of his deal. He's due to make $26 million in 2024, and that could go up to $28 million with incentives, which makes this move tough for the Twins as they look to pull back payroll. Neither Max Kepler or Jorge Polanco are a real fit for a team looking to add youth, so they wouldn't get salary relief here either. Giving up a better prospect could entice St. Louis to throw in money for the salary though. Proposed trade: Goldschmidt for Marco Raya, Jose Salas, and Zebby Matthews Which of these names do you feel most excited about? Is there a return that would make you uncomfortable to get one in return?
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