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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I'm not quite ready to say that Miller is back as a significant SS prospect yet; he's had one good month as a hitter, 2 sorta ok ones, and 2 awful ones. He's on a really good run right now, and as you note: prospect development is not linear, so this could easily be him figuring out something and putting himself on a good track. but it also could be small sample size. But it is important to remember that he's still pretty young and there's no need to rush him, especially with all of the infield talent we have in MLB and the high minors right now. If he starts out next season repeating high A it's hardly a crime. I think he's the 3rd youngest player at Cedar Rapids? (Behind Rodriguez and Salas) So it's not like it's a big concern if he slows down a little right now to get his bat where it needs to be with that quality defense. Severino continues to have an excellent season. There are always going to be some concerns about him with the big K totals, but the power is real and he doesn't just hack at everything. I'm pretty confident we'll see him at Target Field next season unless he becomes part of a trade.
  2. jmlease1
    The box is a little bit of a problem for showing balls and strikes because it's a flat plane rather than a 3D box of the strike zone. Home plate is big enough that a pitch can dip into or out of the strike zone and not always be reflected on the basic window they show on screen. And they've also said on the broadcast that what they show on screen isn't the exact zone that umpires are evaluated on (probably in part because the umpires are evaluated on a 3D box rather than a flat plane as well). The ones where it's tight on the border but look low or outside or whatever don't bother me much, so long as it's consistent. The ones where it was always 3-5 inches off the plate and they call it a strike drive me crazy. Consistency is the most important thing, which is why I'm ready to go with the electronic zone. We still need a home plate umpire to handle the oddball stuff, keep the game going if the technology fails, resolve balks, tags, foul tips, etc. but giving them the electronic assist to keep the strike zone consistent would be good for the game. It's not fun to frequently be unhappy with the way they're calling balls and strikes.
  3. jmlease1
    Royce Lewis is definitely back. We may need to encase him in bubble wrap or something, but dang he's good when he plays. Texas has been good this season; they have some big time players, and if not for Ohtani Seager would be the MVP (with Ohtani's injury, it's still possible Seager could take it if he continues to roll like he has been; dude has been awesome this year). So this is a really big series for the Twins and taking the first game really helps. Correa was clutch last night and that was great to see too. His double could not have come at a better time. Winder really did the job last night. It would be great if he could be a guy who could be counted on to pitch 2 innings in the middle innings on those days when a starter isn't able to get deeper into a game, or even when the bullpen needs a break. It's an important role to be more than just a mop-up guy and Winder did great last night. He's hard to figure out: really good breaking ball, good velocity on the fastball, but he's never been able to put it together consistently in MLB.
  4. jmlease1
    Nellie's 2019 was excellent and a 168 OPS+ gets you into the conversation, but he also didn't offer anything on the base paths like Carew did and hit into twice as many DPs.
  5. jmlease1
    Really happy for Austin Martin; he's had a bumpy ride with the trade, some injuries, COVID...but the talent is definitely there. I know he's in a hitter's environment right now, but it's still great to see him flashing some power while still getting on base and doing all the other things he does well on offense. His elbow seems to be doing ok, and I hope it doesn't flare up on him. If he finishes the season healthy and strong he'll definitely be contending for a job on the MLB roster next season. quality defense at multiple positions plus a good RH bat and impressive baserunning skills? Sign me up. Congrats to Walker Jenkins for his first promotion. He showed immediately that he could play and it should be fun to see how he handles better competition and a tougher hitting environment. Sky is the limit on this kid.
  6. jmlease1
    It's probably a combination of a lot of factors. I'm sure Kepler was trying to get himself back to where he was in 2019 (and he wasn't bad in 2020 either) and it's going to take time and failure to move off of that approach (which was spectacular...with the superball they were using that season). And I'm sure it took some time to build up a data set where they could show, "hey, you're getting a pitch you can really do damage on early in the count and being more aggressive will help". but also even when Kepler was struggling to get hit and show the power that had made a difference for him, he was having an impact with being patient and taking walks, so it was probably a little difficult for him to risk lowering one of the things where he was still being successful. We'll see if this is a true change or a statistical blip. Being more aggressive early in the count has worked to help twins hitters in the past: Sano made this move in 2021 (before people panic too much, it was the injuries that ruined him not the change in approach) and it helped him do damage again.
  7. jmlease1
    Baseball's a funny game init? :P
  8. jmlease1
    Platooning actually might have been more popular back then, at least with some of the best managers. no, you're not going to yank your stars early for a platoon advantage, but that's because they're stars. Less accomplished players need the platoon advantage to bring the team more success. Jacque Jones is one of the best examples of this in Twins history. He could mash righties, especially in his prime. But lefties were his kryptonite. 2002 was his best season at the plate, and would have come off even better if he'd been protected against lefties, because he hit like andrelton simmons against them. Luplow is here for one reason: hit lefties. it's helpful that he's also a quality option defensively. it's reasonable to get him in early against a lefty starter, even if they're an opener, to try and get runs early, rather than wait and hope there's a good pinch-hitting opportunity...because it might not come. It's a reasonable move. The opener strategy is a challenging one if the team employing it has a couple of guys it can run out to take 2-3 innings each in part because you can't hide or deploy the guys who can't hit the same side pitcher as easily. And if Luplow has an objection to getting pulled, that's on him: he's a fringe MLB player who doesn't have the skills to be a regular starter.
  9. jmlease1
    Mauer's 2009 is definitely worthy. Not sure there's a bad choice between Mauer '09, Killebrew '69, or Carew '77. It's a shame we never got to find out if Morneau could have kept rolling like that in 2010. And while I think those three seasons from Mauer, Carew, and Killer are the top 3 in Twins history, I would like to throw a little love to Bob Allison '64, who finished the year with an absurd 163 OPS+ the year after having the highest OPS+ in the AL in '63 (at 151). If you made me choose, it's probably Carew '77; He did everything that year. You have to really look to find a flaw; the worst thing you can say about his offense that season is he could have been a little more efficient stealing bases. Dude didn't ever hit into DPs that year. Just an amazing season.
  10. jmlease1
    I'm always amazed when the "Fire Rocco" crowd is out in force after a win, and a series win. Despite what some constantly insist on, Rocco knows his players just fine; they play hard for him and there's been basically no problems in the clubhouse. The biggest issue this season has been a guy hiding an injury to try and stay in the rotation. People think they want managers who "go with their gut", but will turn on them as soon as one of those gut-shots bombs in a critical moment. I mean, how great was it when Gardy would bat Nick Punto 2nd in the order (a player who was never a league average hitter in any of his 7 seasons with the Twins)? That was an "intuition" move.
  11. jmlease1
    Keuchel did great today. Very impressive. And Duran was filthy in closing it out (I know he gave up a hit, but come on). Winning a series is always good. That's the goal. Keep winning series. I like having that 6 game lead, and hopefully the Twins can push it a little higher before the series against Cleveland next week. Not so thrilled with the billion strikeouts on offense, though. I can live with it better when they're also drawing walks and getting on base, but this wasn't great. Polanco had a rough day (of course one of those Ks was a shot clock violation so....) And the...expansive strike zone that definitely helped Keuchel also made it hard on the offense, so I guess it's a bit of a push.
  12. jmlease1
    Martin's defense at 2B is at least average, and he's got the range and skills to be good in all three OF spots (and possibly great in the corners, sort of like Kepler). But I do agree he's unlikely to get added to the 40-man until the offseason. Just finishing the season healthy and doing well would be a great sign. Right now he's shaping up nicely to contend for a roster spot in 2024.
  13. jmlease1
    I'm baffled how Willi Castro's performance this season and injury absence has become a forum for bashing the manager. Castro has been very useful to the Twins this season, especially with Miranda not being able to seize the 3B job and injuries to guys like Nick Gordon, Royce Lewis, and Jorge Polanco. But probably the biggest key has been unleashing Castro's ability as a baserunner, and he's made a quantum leap in that area. But let's not get too crazy here: he's still got a 90 OPS+ and can't hit enough to be a regular. His value is in his flexibility and that you can use him as a late-game pinch-runner with no additional defensive moves needed pretty much no matter who he slots in for. Instead of the last slot on the active roster being a "break glass in case of emergency" player, he's someone you can use often to take advantage of his skills. But he's not a starter and will get exposed if his bat is relied on too much.
  14. jmlease1
    I might be the biggest Austin Martin booster on this board, but I would pump the brakes on this a little. He doesn't even have 40 games at AAA under his belt, so expecting him to step in immediately and be a contributor in a pennant race is a little ambitious. Stevenson is doing great, but he's another lefty so doesn't fill the role they specifically brought Luplow in to address. He might be the overall better player (though his meh track record so far in MLB at 29 doesn't exactly prove it) but he's almost certainly not the right fit to bash lefties.
  15. jmlease1
    Really great to see Martin showing some pop in his bat. He's really on a nice run again, and looks like he's back to good health. Hopefully he can finish off the season strong. I certainly would have no objection to seeing him get a cup of coffee in MLB this season to see how he reacts, but considering this is his first year in AAA I wouldn't consider it some kind of crime if the Twins look for him to just get through the rest of the season healthy and playing well in Saint Paul. Regardless, he'll be in the mix next spring for a shot at MLB and looks like an excellent fit to be one of our OFs, whether it's starting or being the 4th OF who plays all three spots. De Andrade is putting together a nice season at Ft. Myers at 19. Not showing any power yet, but he's very young and the FSL is notorious for keeping the power number down for guys. He's getting more interesting every day.
  16. jmlease1
    Billy Martin was a drunk and a lunatic, but might be the greatest turnaround artist in baseball history. How many teams immediately became winners when he took over managing? No wonder teams kept giving him chances. And it's no wonder he got fired all the time and couldn't last anywhere either. A fascinating character and monumental pain in the ass. a gifted manager and arguably one of the most self-destructive people in baseball history.
  17. jmlease1
    Good job by Lopez is working around trouble last night. Sometimes you can see giving up those hits and putting the leadoff guy on getting in a pitcher's head, but Lopez seemed unfazed. He's a really good pitcher and he's having an excellent season. Thrilled to have him locked down in the rotation long term. Jax has had his troubles recently, but did a great job cleaning up for Thielbar. Would have been nice to only use 3 relievers last night, but sometimes a guy gets beat and that's what happened to Thielbar. Pagan has been good this season; the WHIP is impressive and he seems much less prone to lobbing in a "get over" pitch that gets smoked this season. Hope all the guys who got plunked are ok, especially Wallner who had the added indignity of getting plunked and having it be a strike. Wallner has been really doing well and I'd hate to see his season get disrupted. Props to Royce Lewis for making a tremendous play at 3B. Turned a double into an out and saved a run. Just stay healthy!
  18. jmlease1
    These are similar signings to Polanco? Segura is 4 years older. Drury is a zero-time all-star who has put up a bWAR of above 2 exactly once in his career. Diaz has never had a season anywhere near Polanco's best in his career; his career best was his rookie year, which was about the same as Polanco last season (which was a down year from Jorge). Carpenter is 7 years older and other than a short stint last season hasn't hit a lick in 4 years. Peterson has been a league average or better hitter only once in his career, in a year that screams "small sample size", and isn't half the player Polanco is. Frazier is the best comp yet, but never had the peak years that Polanco has, and has basically never played anywhere in the infield other than 2B. Myers has basically never played infield anywhere other than 1B, hasn't been a quality starter in 5 years and was only a "we gotta take somebody off this horrible team" all-star. Candelario is a decent comp (though he's still never had the peaks that Polanco has). Longoria is 8 years older and hasn't played a full season since 2017. Andrus is 4 years older and hasn't been a quality starter since 2017; there's a reason no one offered him anything other than backup money. Solano is 5 years older and has never played a full season in his MLB career. Harrison is also 5 years older and much more consistently injured in that time. Castro is easily having his best season as a pro, and still isn't going to be a league average hitter this season. Even coming off another season with injuries, Polanco should do better than any of these guys did on the open market. $10.5M with a team option for another season is cheap. The Twins concern with Polanco is more about playing time: Julien and Lewis have shown they belong, Lee is coming up fast, Kirilloff fits better at 1B, and Correa is locked in at SS with more prospects on the way and quality utility guys already in place. I think the Twins pick up the option but are likely entertaining a lot of trade offers in the offseason. If he can finish out the season looking like a quality player, there will be a significant market for a guy with all-star performances not that far behind him on a contract that's both short-term and very competitive.
  19. jmlease1
    That's simply not true. There are a lot of people that care very deeply about stomping out sex crimes, celebrity or not. It wouldn't get covered on ESPN or The Athletic without the fact that Franco plays baseball, however. He's potentially in a great deal of trouble. Grooming underage girls for sex? Having sex with underage girls? This is serious stuff that can mean major legal consequences in this country and other countries. It's also an area of law that systems struggle to manage well, often treating victims abysmally, and needed special training from investigators and prosecutors to handle well. It's also an area where wealth and privilege can have outsized impacts in some complicated ways. Hard to know how much legal trouble he's in for sure at this point, but it's not insignificant or he wouldn't have been placed on the exclusion list. Regardless, he's shown terrible judgment at best...and is a disgusting sexual predator at worst. It's not good in any way.
  20. jmlease1
    There's functionally no difference between playing Jeffers at 1B and Vazquez playing there, really. It still means you have Vazquez's bat in the lineup, and it still means neither of your catchers is getting a day off. Luplow is literally only here to make sure one of our lefty OFs doesn't start against a left-handed starter and occasionally pinch-hit. His ABs against RH pitchers should be strictly limited. If Solano's ankle/knee can handle it, he's the guy we want at 1B with Kirilloff out, unless there's some confidence that Julien can handle it. Throwing Jeffers in there doesn't fix anything.
  21. jmlease1
    He's not going to be an elite CF, but he can handle the position just fine (decent range, solid glove, good enough arm). He'd be fairly elite in either corner with his range and athleticism, especially in LF. I think he'd be a great fit as the 4th OF next season if he can stay healthy: excellent on-base skills, very good baserunner, can handle multiple positions effectively, right-handed bat. He's better than Celestino and should be more consistent at the plate than Taylor (Taylor is still better in the OF, but Taylor is still better than most of baseball in the OF) I love seeing Martin get on a bit of a roll at AAA. Dude has had a lot of tough luck in his career with injuries, and has caught a lot of fire for not being an instant star as well. I still really like him and I think he's going to be a great value piece for the Twins starting next season.
  22. jmlease1
    Increasingly feels like Jenkins and Winokur will be going to A-ball to start the season next year. Maybe I'm wrong, but they seem to be showing they're ready and I feel like the Twins won't be afraid to send a prized draft pick to Ft. Myers early. Love seeing the dinger from Austin Martin. The worry on him has been that he'll just be a slap hitter (I think there's enough power in there, but I get the concern and there's legit reasons for it) so seeing him take a guy deep is encouraging as he looks to finish the year strong. I'd have no problem if he looked a lot like a Shannon Stewart sort of player (with better defense).
  23. jmlease1
    Huge hit by Wallner, an absolute no-doubter to finish off a really good AB. His approach at the plate has been very good and he's doing a very nice job out there. (a little less excited about him nearly wiping out Correa on defense; need a little better communication out there) I'll admit, I enjoyed how much Justin Morneau was into Wallner's slam, that was fun. Hopefully we can find a little more consistency in the offense and it's not just one big inning or bust. Those games get a little nervvy. Thought Royce looked pretty good out there considering the fairly long layoff. I love Correa's defense. I know his stats haven't been as impressive as some other years, but he's still so good out there. He makes plays few Twins have ever made at SS. Polanco had a couple of really nice ones out there too, which was good to see.
  24. jmlease1
    I don't think the Twins have been trying to turn Martin into something he's not; there was a stretch after the first acquired him that they were looking to adjust his swing to see about adding more power, but that hasn't been the case for some time now. They've been letting him play, he's just had his time interrupted by some injuries and COVID. I'm a big believer in his talent, he just needs health.
  25. jmlease1
    Gray has had some starts where the heat/humidity has gotten to him, so after 6 good innings and a lead I can see why they'd want to let him take a seat, and give the bullpen some work before the off day. It was a bit more wobbly with Jax than anyone would have liked, but they got through it. Always good to win a series on the road. Hopefully the Twins can keep it rolling a bit and put some more distance between us and the Guardians. Gray and Lopez are a very nice 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation. Been quite a while since we had that, and I still have a lot of faith in Ryan, Ober and Maeda. Starting pitching will carry this squad (which I don't see Keuchel being part of for long...)
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