jmlease1

I really like Raya as a player. I don't mind treating him very carefully so as not to blow out his arm, but if they do see him as a MLB starter I would like to see him stretched out a little more this season. Let's see what happens when he goes 75 pitches or heads into the 5th inning. They can space out his starts a little more if they want to go carefully on him, but at a certain point he's not a starting pitcher prospect if he never throws more than about 3 innings in an outing. #4 seems a reasonable spot for him, I wouldn't run any higher.

Duran's case is a little bit different; he didn't exactly flunk out as a starter (4 starts in AAA in an injury-filled season isn't enough for me) and he basically never got his AA development season in 2020 as a starter at all because of the pandemic. So the team just made the call that his lightning bolt of an arm played up immediately as a reliever and might also keep him healthy. We'll never really know if he could have still made it as a starter. I think missing out on a key developmental year in 2020 hurt Balazovic considerably. (as I recall, he scrapped the changeup in 2021 and started working on a split in AA; starting that process sooner would almost certainly have helped) The injury year in 2022 set him back significantly as well. And this is where drafting teenage pitchers starts getting to be a problem: he's now spent 7 seasons in our system, has to be on the 40-man or possibly get snapped up by someone else, but he's still not ready. You end up having to make the decision on those young pitchers faster than maybe you want to, but in this case you had a lost development year on top of it. The missing 2020 minor league season messed up some careers, and I think Balazovic's was one of them.

If you're going to be relying on younger players and guys coming up through your system, it makes sense that when you're picking your vets to come in and fill roles that you would look for guys that are going to have additional character traits and intangibles to bring to the table. While some young players are ready to be leaders out the gate, most aren't. And even ones with huge talent and the right makeup to excel can benefit be having mentors to show them all sorts of little tricks and habits that might otherwise take years to develop. Sometimes a couple of a$$holes can crash a team, especially over the long grind of a season. You shouldn't pass on a superior talent for a lesser one just because the lesser talent is a good guy and the much better player has a reputation for being difficult, but limiting the number of jackwagons on a squad is often a good call. Good team guys can come in on a one-year deal or after a trade and be fine. The prickly/disgruntled/cranky guys can't always do that. Selfishness can rub off on people.

It's too bad that Balazovic crapped out here, but last year was really his key year and between the bar fight (even if he wasn't at fault), lack of control, injuries, and lack of performance made it another poor season. He really does illustrate the risk of high school pitchers; even when they look like they're breaking out in the low minors it can easily fall apart in the high minors, which is exactly what happened to Balazovic. I wasn't confident in him making the roster after they signed Staumont, frankly, and it's only gotten worse for him since with Topa and Jackson coming in. I do think the bullpen looks pretty good and they've wisely not dropped real money on middle relievers.

I think the biggest difference is in the number of pitches Festa has that are established already as it relates to Balazovic, who ended up having to scrap his changeup for a different one at AA, Sands hasn't had Festa's velocity and figuring out a 3rd pitch has been a bit of a struggle for him as well. Winder has velocity on his fastball, but it's been incredibly hittable and it looks like Festa's doesn't have the same issues. Winder also never had a 3rd pitch settled on either: the slider is great, but his changeup is just ok and he's been trying to land a 3rd pitch for a while. Look it can all change when you hit MLB and even the crap hitters there are only crap against the best in the world. but Festa looks very promising, and looks on track to be a rotation option in 2025 after getting a taste this season. Hopefully we only need him for 10 starts or so, but as AAA depth he's awfully nice to be looking at as your 7th/8th/9th starter going into the year.

I think that's fair. I think Martin has more upside and utility than Gordon, who was bad last season before the very unfortunate injury, is just ok as a CF, doesn't really have the arm to be the corners, and isn't an infield option anywhere but 2B. Martin's RH bat is also a better fit than another LH bat for the OF, and despite Gordon being reasonable fast, Martin is the better baserunner. But after the way 2022 imploded due to insufficient depth and acceptable players to put into MLB roles, the FO is putting a premium on depth and has become significantly more risk-adverse on this issue. I'm not sure they're wrong? But I suspect that's why Gordon will hang on to his spot on the roster rather than get surpassed by Martin unless Gordon gets hurt again or implodes. I was happy to see Martin ranked this high, but pretty surprised. I thought I was one of the last believers, but his AFL time plus how well he responded to his injury recovery at AAA seems to have changed some minds. I really think he can be a quality CF even if he's not showing a lot of power, because he will get on base, and he will advance on the base paths. (much like Wallner, he's not afraid to Don Baylor his way on base) He looks like a really good fit as a 4th OF who can also step on to the dirt in a pinch so long as he stays off of SS. (might not have the arm for 3B either, but he wouldn't embarrass himself). The real question is whether or not he can drive enough balls into the gap to have a respectable slugging %. he doesn't need to be ripping 15-20 HRs, but he needs to not be empty BA. He'll take his walks and HBPs, but if he gets enough doubles to keep that SLG north of .400 he'll be pretty valuable.

Castro could play SS, but I'd rather have Farmer there. And I agree: Farmer is an almost perfect backup on this team: he pairs well with Julien, is average to above average defensively at multiple infield spots, and can even run out to the OF in a pinch. Plus he's very well respected as a veteran leader and seen as a future coach/manager if he wants it.

Well, he had a blowout this year with Twins fans when he listed out their potential starters and had Balazovic in the mix and not Paddack; when people pointed out that Paddack was a starting pitching option (and not in a mean way, either) he proceeded to insult anyone who considers Chris Paddack a starter in spectacularly douchey fashion. (as if Balazovic is?) not the first time he's done that kind of BS, either. When I mean that he won't admit to being wrong, it partly means "Only KLaw is allowed to criticize KLaw".

He can be a cantankerous jerk, but his evaluations are usually pretty fair and he's upfront about his biases (preferring ceiling, etc). he's also not afraid to swerve from the CW on players, which I respect. He's also pretty much never willing to admit he screwed up, and will double-down and insult people if called on it. So kind of an ass, but a good prospect evaluator.

Lewis is a really interesting case and a bit of the showcase for development kind of player if he can continue to get it done. now, as a college player from a reasonably-sized school with a serious baseball program, I would hope that he would do well out the gate in low A, and the expectations for him in high A would be a little higher than a 20-year old kid as well. That said...he's met those expectations. He had more starts and more innings in his first year as a pro and handled it well. He showed respectable control, solid numbers of Ks, and did a very nice job of keeping the ball in the park, while not being terribly easy to hit. he jumped all the way up to high A in his first season of pro ball and had ERAs that are hard to ignore. I think AA will be a very good test for him. Can he keep throwing so many different pitches against more refined hitters? Will his stuff hold up, or does he need more velocity (or bite on the offspeed) to succeed? I'm excited to find out. If he can legitimately throw 6 different pitches...the guessing games involved might help his pitches all play up a bit more. how do you sit on a pitch when the guy can throw enough of them that you might never see that one in 2 ABs or more? Plus, I love a knuckleball, at any velocity, so I'm rooting hard for this kid.

The "Duran to the rotation" bit is entirely driven by fans, not anything from team or player sources, though. There's really been no indicator at all that they have any interest or intention towards this kind of move. It might be fun to speculate about, but it's sort of like the "just move Royce Lewis to the OF" ideas that pop up during roster construction conversations. not just unlikely, so improbable as to border on impossible.

I think he's an interesting prospect and a good risk to take at that spot in the draft. It'll be interesting to see if he starts the season in Low-A at Ft. Myers or if he gets some repeat time in the complex league/rookie ball; it would be a sign of the Twins confidence in his progress if he begins in full-season pro ball already. His contact rates will probably define him as he advances, especially with his size.

not far at all. All three of them had better come into camp locked in and ready to go, because their careers are teetering. none of them did enough last season to feel comfortable at all. Even before this signing I had Winder, Sands, and Balazovic all missing the cut and either getting traded or DFA'd. I'd suggest this puts Alcala, Funderburk, and Staumont on the bubble too. I'm interested by Jackson; if he can hit the zone he does well. He's not easy to hit even if he doesn't always put up video game Ks. Twins have a lot of options for the bullpen out the gate this season; hopefully they pick the right ones, though I'm sure some of this will get decided by health.

Polanco is a better hitter than Julien vs LHP. This is not news. There's also a lot more RHP in MLB, so being able to hit LHP is good, it's not as impactful as being able to hit RHP. Despite doing poorly against LHP last season, Julien was substantially better on offense than Polanco last season. This is simply a fact. Julien is 5 years younger than Polanco with no real injury history as a pro; Polanco has had substantial injury issues the last 2 seasons (and in 2018 as well). This is also a fact. The idea that Julien is half the offensive player that Polanco is just because Polanco is better vs LHP doesn't pass the smell test. (BTW, Julien is a much better baserunner than Polanco)

well, he was close to a league average hitter, but overall he was a quality starter with 2.7 bWAR. And if he moves to mostly just playing against LHP, he might actually be more productive as a hitter.

I prefer Santana to Solano; Solano is not a good 1B and Santana is, Solano doesn't really possess splits and we're looking more for a platoon partner than an every day player, and Santana's strength at this point is hitting LHP. While Solano gives quality ABs, so does Santana, and Solano has zero pop in his bat despite his nickname while Santana still has that thump. I wasn't all that high on Santana as an option when I thought Miranda would be healthy coming in to the season; right now it's looking like he's still not pass the injury and the surgery, which makes me like this move more. The fit is very good for this team, so long as Santana can still hit LHP. He did it last season while still playing basically full time; it's reasonable to think that when you shift him to a smaller role that the extra rest might keep him in good enough nick to cancel any further degradation due to age. He's definitely a better defensive player at 1B than anyone on our roster right now (Kirilloff has potential still but hasn't put it all together yet) so that's a nice bonus. If Miranda were clearly recovered, I might have wanted us to spend the money elsewhere, but with his status looking shakier having a guy who can hit LHP and play quality 1B is a sound investment.

I mean, asking whether DeSclafani boosts the rotation for the playoffs is the wrong question from the jump, since that's not why he was signed. He's here to provide depth at the back of the rotation with the expectation that the team will need 7-9 pitchers taking starts across the season because of injuries, ineffectiveness, rest, etc. Now, we're going 6 deep (assuming Varland stays a starter, which I suspect he will) before asking Festa, SWR, etc to take the mound in MLB. this was a regular season move all the way, not a playoff one. Maybe the team will look to upgrade the rotation midseason, but this is also a season where Ryan, Ober, or Paddack show that they can be a real partner for Lopez in the playoffs. Certainly could happen; none of these guys are someone who would be embarrassing in the playoffs and all 3 would give you a chance to win. I'm still high on Ryan, and I suspect he's learned his lesson about hiding an injury. Ober was very good last season, and I'm not going to write him off as a playoff-caliber starter after 1 chance. If DeSclafani is healthy, he'll be useful and a good contributor. I think he can replace Maeda's innings in the regular season. That feels like what he's here for. Higher end work will need to come from improvement/consistency from Ober/Ryan and a return to form from Paddack.

Say Carlos Santana had been included in the trade (signed by Seattle before being included in the deal)...how does it look then? I loved Jorge Polanco, I think he was underrated while he was here and while he wasn't a consistent all-star level performer he was a very good player who did everything the team asked of him, was a leader in the clubhouse, and brought a lot of value with his bat playing up the middle. He's also getting older, and has struggled with injuries the last 2 seasons. The Twins gave up the best player in the trade, which is a little unfortunate when you're a contending team trying to improve to go for a title. But that's the way it goes when you're looking to deal 1 guy, and the Twins got good value back that will contribute this season and some prospects that could give more. I wasn't particularly enthusiastic about Santana, but having heard that Miranda might not be fully recovered from shoulder surgery, I'm happier with the decision, and I feel like his acquisition has to be considered as part of the overall trade evaluation. Topa doesn't really deserve the comp to Lopez; Topa's problem before last season was health, which seems to be no longer an issue. Lopez was based on hope that he'd ironed out his performance issues and could stay consistent, but his personal struggles clearly impacted his game; that was unfortunate, but also not really predictable. While Topa might regress this season, there's little reason to believe he'll implode like that. DeSclafani doesn't raise the ceiling on the rotation like we might have hoped, but should raise the floor; he's been good when healthy, and his been poor when he's not. Gonzalez is a prospect with real upside and flaws that need to be ironed out, and Bowen is a lottery ticket. The Twins have better aligned their roster with this trade, getting starting pitching depth, improving the bullpen, and getting a veteran platoon partner at 1B while adding prospects to the farm system. That's a respectable return for a player who has only played about a half a season in 3 of the last 6 seasons and only has 2 seasons left of team control on a contract that's closer to market rate. With Julien already showing out well at 2B, Brooks Lee waiting in the wings, Farmer a better fit in a utility role (cheaper, more positional flexibility, better defense), moving Polanco made sense, and this is a return that works out ok for now and potentially in the future. Was I hoping the Twins could package Polanco into a better starting pitcher? Sure was, but my hopes don't define the market and keeping Polanco would have been the wrong decision.

The only way to make room is if they're better than Nick Gordon. I don't see the Twins dropping Farmer, so the last man on the 26-man for position players is Gordon. I'm ok with that but I don't see the Twins getting rid of Gordon for nothing unless they get a heck of a deal on the RH OF...

It's my biggest concern with Santana, but it's mitigated a little by the belief that he's not intended to be an every day player. If he's going to be playing 1B against LH starters, doing a little pinch-hitting against lefties, and getting the occasional DH/1B start against RHP because of injuries or need to give a guy a day off...that role is more limited and less likely to collapse like Gallo did. I'm also hoping that if Santana is cooked the fact that his salary is half what Gallo was pulling down will keep them from trying to recoup the costs past the point of redemption. But most teams are prisoners of the Sunk Cost Fallacy, so Twins aren't unique here. If he can hammer LHP and keep playing quality D at 1B, this should work out nicely. even with his decline the last few seasons, he's still been good enough to fill that role.

It's also important to remember that the 26-man roster is the biggest sticking point for signings now, not the 40-man. We are going to be running 13 position players (I don't really agree with that; I think there's more value to another position player than a pitcher who might only throw 1 inning in a week, but they're not changing that philosophy) so in order to add another guy we're going to have to drop someone. After adding Santana, the bottom two guys are Gordon and Farmer. Farmer isn't going to get cut; he's got real value as a RH bat off the bench who can slot into many positions and be effective defensively. Gordon doesn't have options left, so adding someone to his spot means we have to either quickly deal him or lose him for nothing. Miranda has the last spot, but he has options still and is coming off a significant injury, so moving Santana into his slot on the 26-man makes a fair amount of sense. I like this fit better than the Gallo move last season, and it's half the price. I like the options we have for dealing with injuries in house right now; there are quite a few young players who look to be ready or close to it who can step in all over the field, which I like. I just hope Carlos still has one good season of lefty mashing left in him. If he can turn in an OPS over .800 against lefties tis season and play good defense at 1B (and maybe teach Kirilloff some tricks there?) then the signing turns out well. If he's cooked, can't turn in an OPS much over .700 (or worse) against LHP, gets nicked up a bunch and can't play, and turns into a statue at 1B...at least it's only a 1 year deal and there are options in the minors.

I don't mind the Twins digging through the waiver wire, looking for potential upside options for the bullpen that they can hopefully either DFA and get through or assign to AAA at the start of the season. It's not a bad way to sift through and find a couple of additional options as you churn through some guys at the back end to figure out who can be effective for the season. TB does this all the time and it's worked for them, and the Twins have had some success at it too. It's a marginal move to be sure, but they're trying to give themselves as many outs as possible while avoiding investing significant dollars in what often tend to be fungible relievers (and that's what a lot of those guys who get 1-2 year deals at $4-7M really are). Feels like Jensen can pass waivers at this point?

I look at this move and think, "It's...fine?" Santana hits lefties pretty well and plays a quality 1B, so as a platoon option he's not bad. He's not a black hole against RHP either, so he doesn't need to get subbed out for every pitching change. But he's turning 38 shortly and age is undefeated. My biggest concern is that this franchise won't be able to move on from him if he struggles out the gate or even if he falls off the cliff by June (the Gallo Effect); we've seen them get hung up on the Sunk Cost Fallacy before. While moving in the younger players last year was highly effective for this team, there is something to be said for a) having those players earn their opportunities rather than get them on scholarship, and b) not relying on them to be your first-order depth. The team's depth last season was a real strength for the club, and 2 years ago their lack of depth and quality options to replace players struck down with injury ruined the season (which started out quite promisingly). I think the decision-making of the FO has shown a desire not to get caught out like they were in 2022 and make sure they have veteran depth available. Solano is younger and might have been even cheaper, but I'm unconvinced that he's going to be better. Santana is clearly the better defensive player at 1B, and Solano's positional flexibility is more on paper than in reality now (and not as much of a need for the Twins since we still have Farmer and Castro to cover infield spots). Would I have been willing to roll with Miranda as the primary backup/partner for Kirilloff? I would have been ok with that if the $$ had been rolled into pitching help. But at this point I'm not interested in overpaying to add another reliever, and if the team wasn't going to be able to add another starter...this seems fine? I hope Santana is ok with not being an everyday player now, because he really shouldn't be. He shouldn't take ABs away from guys like Kirilloff or Julien against RHP. And maybe consistent rest will keep him healthy and performing well. It's a 1 year deal for a guy who has a potential fit in a specific role and has a reputation for being good in the clubhouse, so it almost can't be that bad of a move. Could they have done better if they'd moved early? maybe, but we are where we are.

I would not have ranked Soto this high. Yes, he's got huge upside and a ton of talent, but if if the gods have come off the mountain and blessed him by turning his arm into a thunderbolt...he's literally never thrown a professional pitch. So until he passes the lemon test, he shouldn't be in the top ten. There's a lot of things to like about him: the fastball looks great already and he's already made more progress on refining two off-speed pitches than some pitchers have done at 22, but he still hasn't shown he can get professional hitters out at all. He's a fine risk to take with the 34th pick, but he's also a huge risk because there are so many hurdles for high school pitchers to leap over. I like him. I'm fine with the Twins picking him. I love his potential and upside, but he's not the #8 prospect in the Twins organization for me. I don't believe in valuing projection (aka, hope) above all, and the fact that he didn't even throw an inning is mildly worrisome. I expect he'll pitch extended spring training and then rookie ball and then maybe we can do an actual evaluation, but right now this is smoke and mirrors to get him this high, and there might be something else in that smoke.

Charter = Spectrum. (trust me, I used to have them). I'm currently getting my tv through TDS, and have Bally, formerly FSN. Live sports is really the only reason I still have a tv service like this, but dumping Charter/Spectrum for TDS is saving me a lot of $$ So it is available on the #1 and #2 providers, since Xfinity = Comcast. I'm not thrilled about the streaming not being fixed better, but if it's going to available to stream on Prime rather than through the Bally's app that a) sucked, and b) cost an extra bomb even if you were already paying for their cable tier...maybe not so bad.