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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I love the fact that Duran pitched the 8th and took down the 1-3 hitters in the MKE lineup. Team was very willing to take a walk today, and 7 free passes really piles up. Correa is definitely on a bit of a heater right now, and it's just what the team needs. I worry a little when Ober gives up the long balls, but he settled down nicely. Very nice win.
  2. jmlease1
    I love Julien's eye at the plate. I hope the lack of the electronic strike zone and the occasionally wobbly umpiring doesn't cause him to alter his approach and expand his zone. His ability to get on base would make him a real asset at the top of the lineup if he's able to keep taking walks while being a threat at the dish. I like his hit tool a lot, and he's been looking good at the plate in this latest call-up. It's still a small sample, so it'll be interesting to see if he can keep this up. The defense isn't good. His arm is below par and he makes routine plays look harder than they need to be at times. Despite his experience at 2B, he doesn't seem to have great instincts there for where to go and what to do when a play is coming into his zone. He could certainly improve; despite his age he doesn't have tons of game experience at 2B (Jose Miranda, despite not playing any 2B in MLB is basically even with Julien in innings played in the minors) so maybe he'll develop more with time. I do like that bat and eye at the plate, though!
  3. jmlease1
    Buxton is an excellent DH when healthy; his production collapsed when his knee started barking at him again. he had the 2nd highest OPS+ on the team last season; even this season (when he's been struggling recently) he's still tied for 3rd highest OPS+ among players with at least 150 PAs for the Twins. As always, the only issue with Byron Buxton is health: when he's healthy, he's great at any position he plays. We'd be better off if he were healthy enough to play in CF, because it frees up DH for other players with less ability, but his bat plays at DH just fine.
  4. jmlease1
    It's not like Miranda is out of options after this season, so we're probably getting a little ahead of ourselves. yes, he's not just a kid any longer, but the window isn't closed for him to be a successful MLB player. The problem (as much as there is one) is really more one for Miranda to solve than the Twins. He was given a big opportunity at the start of the year and couldn't handle it. He needed to go back down to the minors to get a re-set on his approach, and the jury's still out on whether he's made it, though the last week or so has been encouraging. now Royce Lewis is healthy and has passed him on the depth chart and maybe Ed Julien has as well. For Miranda to get back up to MLB, he has to force his way there again. he needs to hit, he needs to improve his defense, and he needs to show that he's a better option for the team than a player like Donovan Solano going forward and can push players like Lewis and Julien, rather than be pushed down by them. I think there are options, especially if Miranda finds his hitting stroke and again and shows that ability to not just make a lot of contact but also to punish the ball when he swings. maybe it's more of a platoon role with Julien (especially if the twins move on from Polanco), maybe he can seize the 3B job again and Royce slides over to 2B. Maybe Royce goes out to CF if Buxton's knee just doesn't make him viable in the OF for more than occasional jaunts. He could be a trade chip in the future, but right now it'd be a sell-low job that I don't think anyone wants. The real problem with Miranda is we don't know for sure if his massive 2021 was a fluke year or who he really is as a hitter. His only other really strong minor league season was in 2017 back in rookie ball; while he didn't spend much time in Saint Paul in 2022 he wasn't lighting it up either (nor was he bad). His time in MLB in 2022 was up and down: horrific start in May, excellent June & July, bit of a fade in Aug & Sept. It's on Jose Miranda to show how good he is and can be and seize a job; it's not going to be given to him on scholarship.
  5. jmlease1
    Good to see Celestino back on the field. I think he spends most if not all of the season in AAA this year, unless Michael A. Taylor goes down for an extended period, and that's fine. Frankly, Celestino needs a couple of months in the minors in the same place working a program and getting himself back on track. He's got talent, but his development really got screwed up and the injury this year has set him back. Severino has been pretty great at the plate; a little worried about him in the field, but if he keeps hitting like this, they will find a spot for him. (but players have shown the ability to grow and develop at 3B before, so maybe he'll start figuring it out. But oof he's a bit of a butcher there right now) I'd say Rosario has earned a promotion to AA. He's making good hard contact and racking up the hits, but also piling up the walks. yes, he Ks a fair bit, but he's actually brought it down a little bit and with with everything else he's doing right it's hard to see his approach at the plate being a problem. Let's see how he does against more advanced pitchers. He looks ready for the challenge, and 232 PAs isn't that small of a sample any longer.
  6. jmlease1
    Sure. But it was still a pretty funny crack to overhear, Also, it was abysmal getting out of the ramp last night. never taken so long to get anything moving before, literally just sitting in cars and nothing moving at all.
  7. jmlease1
    Overheard at the end of the game last night: "Plus, we took all that Milwaukee money!" 🤣 Very fun game last night, with an ideal ending. Royce trying to stretch a single to a double wasn't so great; he didn't get a fast enough start out of the box to have a a chance and that ball didn't die or slice enough to really give him a chance. Glad the mistake didn't end up hurting us. The phantom walk that Pablo Lopez issues didn't look great from the stands, much like poor Kirilloff getting rung up looked...questionable as well. Again: ready for the electronic strike zone. Taylor and Correa's HRs were no-doubters right off the bat. Very fun celebration at the plate with Correa; they really looked like they were having fun there. Winder got the job done, but I still am not sure about him. His fastball looks a little too straight and 95mph doesn't play like it used to. The curve was good, but the slider didn't move enough. Changeup was solid and got him the swing and miss he was looking for, but I'm just not sure he's got enough stuff. It would be huge if he could be a 2 inning guy every 3 days or so, but his fastball looks hittable and he didn't seem confident in it. All in all, though, a pretty great win. And nice job by Castro pinch running, even if it was maybe a little more exciting than it needed to be (almost oversliding 2B, then starting his slide into home so early that from the stands it looked like he was going to Willie Mays Hayes it and come up 2 feet short. But he got it done!).
  8. jmlease1
    congrats to Blayne Enlow on his promotion! It's been a long road for him.
  9. jmlease1
    I'm a no on this one. The concept has worked for the Twins before, but the price tag it would take to keep Mahle in the fold isn't going to be cheap and he's been unavailable too much to feel confident about him having a clean recovery from TJ. There's another price that you have to pay when you make a deal like this too: the 40-man roster spot. While teams usually have several fringe players on their 40-man by the end of a season that can get dropped, right now with the Twins farm system depth they're going to be tighter up against it when it comes to protecting prospects from the Rule 5 draft. Injured players can't get moved to the 60-day list and exempted from the 40-man until the start of the season after the Rule 5, so you're also potentially costing yourself a player that way as well. The trade busted. It was a reasonable move at the time (I still think the only one we'll truly regret losing is CES, but YMMV) but it crapped out because Mahle got hurt in both seasons. That sucks for the Twins (especially because Mahle could have been a difference-maker last season in holding the rotation together) but in this case you're throwing good money after bad in trying to find a way to extract value from this one. Move on.
  10. jmlease1
    I'm not sure that's true, it's hard to tell when a catcher in the minors takes the leap. Cardenas and Olivar are making prospect lists, Isola is still playing the position, Cossetti has been good enough to get an early promotion, and they've been aggressive in moving up Camargo now. (and Silva is certainly interesting) some pretty good depth, but maybe not a break-out star. We'll see how the season goes for Camargo, but right now he's lining himself up to be the first choice call-up if/when one of the Twins catchers gets hurt in 2024. I have to say, I'd rather have a younger player with upside potential in that role than a no-hit journeyman on the wrong side of 30 as the option. I'm impressed with how well Camargo has handled the aggressive promotion in the last 2 years, and he's definitely got some pop in his bat. I'd like to see him finish the year taking a few more walks and making more contact before I consider him a catcher of the future, though.
  11. jmlease1
    Man, Vazquez looks awful at the plate right now. Can't catch up to fastballs, toothless when he makes contact. It's getting a little concerning. I don't expect him to be a major offensive force or anything, but he's been brutal at the plate this season.
  12. jmlease1
    Good to see Prielipp pitching again. Hope this was just a blip for a guy still working his way back from TJ and we'll get to see him working off the mound some more. Raya really looks like a serious pitcher. I'd like to see them stretch him out a little more. I understand they're being careful with him after some injuries, but only 51 pitches? I have no expectation that they'll let him start going 90-100, but maybe let's stretch him out to 70-75 and see how he does. Good signs from E-Rod. Maybe he's heating up a little after the slow start. Really talented player, and good to see him blast the HR and take a walk.
  13. jmlease1
    It's not really that complicated: Garlick has crushed lefties his whole career. That's literally his reason for being in the majors. It makes perfect sense to slot him in there against a tough lefty and then when the bullpen starts rolling out you can slot one of your better lefties into the middle of the order as a pinch hitter. Lewis isn't going to come out, so this opens up opportunities to make moves later in the game. Garlick's numbers aren't good so far this season against lefties, but that's only like 20 ABs. It didn't end up working out last night (neither Garlick nor Larnach got a hit) but the logic and strategy is sound. Would Wallner make sense to call up on this roster? Sure, but the problem is his lefty bat doesn't probably help you that much against Kikuchi and you're still probably not going to start him over Garlick (if he's still on the roster) against the lefty.
  14. jmlease1
    I hope Martin's injury isn't serious and isn't related to his elbow. I'm rooting for the dude, and he just can't seem to catch a break. Miranda seems to be finding the re-set we were hoping for at AAA, which is certainly good to see. he's going to have to battle for a spot on the roster, and maybe that is helping him get locked in? Lewis is a fascinating prospect to think about. I love guys with weird pitches and it'll be fun to see how he does now that he's moved up a level. A good test might be if he pitches in multiple games in one of those 6 game series that seem to happen in the minors and see how he holds up when a team sees him twice in a week.
  15. jmlease1
    It's definitely another one for the case files on "Why You Should Never Give Up on a Starter Until You've Given Him a Real Go as a Reliever". he's definitely a bit wild, but it's a lot easier to dodge around a walk or two as a high-velocity reliever than as a medium-low velocity starter. but he's also one of the reasons the Twins as an organization (and the Rays and a few others) tend to not want to spend on the bullpen: you can find guys like this. But props to the Twins for finding him and having some patience in the transition (he was not good last season) and for him in embracing the change in role to find success. We'll see if it's sustainable: the increased velocity certainly helps a lot, but he's also doing a much better job of keeping the ball in the park and has been less hittable as well, with a major uptick in K/9. If this is closer to who he is as a pitcher, he's going to be a useful bullpen piece.
  16. jmlease1
    I think it would be great if Balazovic can turn into a 2+ inning weapon out of the bullpen. Could be a great way to bridge those middle-ish innings when your starter only goes 5 innings and not burn up your whole bullpen while also chewing up innings if/when a starter gets rocked. And maybe that's where he's going to be most effective. It also doesn't preclude him from a spot start or even trying to stretch him back out as a starter again in an offseason. Kala'i Rosario is amazing: he got a hit in the 7th inning of a 5 inning game! :P (typos happen, I tease because I love) But I am really impressed with how well he's doing this year, it's been a real breakout campaign for him. Thrilled to see Austin Martin playing; right now I'm not even sure I care what his results are, just hoping that he's able to swing the bat and throw without pain. Would be a big deal if the rest & rehab plan worked for him and he doesn't need surgery on that elbow. I think his bat is going to play and I'd love for him to be fighting for a super-utility role next season.
  17. jmlease1
    He hasn't played a ton of OF for the Twins, but the impression I've gotten is they saw enough from him to be like "ok, we know he can play there and be fine" and have had him playing SS to see if he can stick on the dirt. I don't have a lot of concerns about him fielding the OF, but he would have more value as a super utility guy if he can reasonably play the infield too (a la Willi Castro). Oddly, Martin played less SS in college than he has in the pros...have to wonder if that set him back in a chance to stick at SS as a pro?
  18. jmlease1
    I really hope Austin Martin is recovered from the elbow injury and doesn't need surgery. Twins are due for a little luck on the "rest and rehab" plans (they've had several guys where they've tried to do this for several months and then the season-ending surgery happened anyways). But more than that, I'm rooting for Austin Martin, who looked like he was getting back on track after getting healthy and playing well in the AFL. He's had a screwy development path and struggled with some injuries, but he's still very talented and could be a significant contributor. It'll be fun to follow some of these guys at the complex: Chourio is definitely one I want to keep an eye on after seeing some write-ups on him.
  19. jmlease1
    Well, he's probably a bit better than this; right now it's a career low OPS+. But I don't disagree: he's a drag on the offense on a team that can't afford more drags on the offense. He's not going to be better than a league average bat for more than a week or two at a time. But the problem is, Larnach hasn't been able to stay healthy, Gallo has missed time, Gordon is missing a lot of time (and has been bad), and Kirilloff has a significant and recent injury history. If we dump Kepler now, he's gone forever. So it's an issue if you replace him with Wallner and someone else goes down, because now you're down to Garlick (who also has never stayed healthy). The closer you get to the trade deadline and further along you are in the season the less your depth matters, unless you have a pile of guys on the IL. But we're barely into June and have a bunch of injuries again. I'm entirely unenthusiastic about running Max Kepler out there right now, but but I get why it seems like we're stuck with him for another month. The mistake was not dealing him in the offseason and using the money saved to reinforce the bullpen, add a RH corner OF or both. Good news: Twins haven't been playing all that great, the offense is pretty thin, the bullpen could use reinforcements...and we're still leading the division by 3.5
  20. jmlease1
    I think if the Twins had managed to pull off a win on either Sat or Sun and won the series, we'd be feeling a lot different this morning. Kind of amazing how much one game can make a difference, but that's the way for a 4 game series against a division rival: take 3 out of 4 and you're rolling. Split 2-2 after winning the first 2 and the gloom sets in. It's interesting to see so many people finally turning on Kepler; he's in a slump right now, but he hasn't been a plus offensive player for most of his career. In 8 full seasons, he's been an above league average hitter exactly twice, and one of those was the pandemic year (so less than 200 PAs). he'll probably bounce back a little bit this season and push those number back up around a 92-95 OPS+, but there's little chance of more. And it's why some of us wanted to move on from him in the off-season, but once that decision got made to keep him it's really problematic to drop him in May/June. No one is trading for him right now (and it would be the ultimate sell low) and we're on the hook for his entire salary so literally the only thing the Twins gain at this point is a roster spot. That gets easier to accept as the season progresses, but of our corner OFs from the start of the season, Larnach, Gallo, Gordon, Kirilloff, and Kepler have all spent time (or are currently) on the IL this season, making our depth a little more wobbly. So i think the calls to cut Kepler today are unrealistic. But a lot of people were ignoring Kepler's lack of offense for a long time before now.
  21. jmlease1
    It's an interesting analysis. I don't always agree with some of FanGraphs methodologies in prospect evaluation but it's certainly reasonable. And I really have no way to properly evaluate the guys who are in instructional leagues. Thought the most salient point was the evaluation of the system as whole as being deep, despite the trades of prospect capital that have been made. They might have less high-end talent than some, but have a lot of guys who can develop and progress. I think they're a little bit off on Martin; indicators from the Twins looks like they're comfortable with him anywhere in the OF and are trying to see whether or not he can stick on the dirt. I think it's likely he would be playing less SS this season, but he's been injured so that's been off the table. It's a real shame that he's been hurt this season, because it was looking like he'd gotten himself back on track in the AFL.
  22. jmlease1
    Not a great night for the affiliates, nor for most of the prospect list! (though good to see guys like Julien and E-Rod still taking walks even on nights when they're not connecting. Suggests that the approach is right even if the results weren't big) Severino continues to perform well on offense; have to wonder if he has a defensive position, but if he keeps hitting like this he'll find a job somewhere I think. And the Kala'i Rosario Saga continues on: he got dissed a bit in the FanGraphs prospect write-up this week, so of course he just turns in another great game at the plate. Maybe we should just find someone to ding him for something every week to keep giving him someone else to prove wrong? :D Twins have to feel good about his progress this season.
  23. jmlease1
    Not me! Maybe they look to move on from him in the off-season, depending on how various other players have developed this season, but he's a key player for this team and an important offensive cog. Happy to see Polanco in the lineup. Really good win for the Twins on a night when the offense was light. Ober pitched well, but dodged several bullets (a better offense might have hung several on him). Great to see the bullpen hold it down again: Duran is a monster and a real weapon in the 'pen. Getting Thielbar back will help steady things back there, I think, and make us a little less reliant on wild boys like Moran/Stewart/Pagan in tighter games. Cleveland has bigger problems than we do on offense; outside of Ramirez and Maylor there's a massive power outage over there, and with their luck in 1-run games from last year flipping back they're in real trouble if they don't start hitting soon. Hopefully it doesn't happen this weekend at all!
  24. jmlease1
    Positional flexibility makes a huge difference, especially for those last few roster spots. Castro is clearly the better infielder over Gordon, which helps him out; Gordon has more experience in the OF including fairly significant time in CF. If Castro's also an option in CF that's going to make it hard for Gordon to find a role on this squad as long as Castro hits around league average. I didn't think much of the Castro acquisition at the start of the season, thought he was just a retread blocking some of our prospects. Happy to be wrong about him so far, hope he can keep hitting.
  25. jmlease1
    I think you're wrong, but even if you're right and the vast majority of the blame should all land on the twins hitters...there's no excuse for the home plate umpire not knowing how many strikes he'd already called in an AB. This wasn't a case where something weird had happened to interrupt play for a substantial amount of time or anything; dude just lost the plot, and undermined his own credibility.
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