jmlease1

Provus is very skilled and should do well. I hope people will give him a little time to find his feet with doing baseball on TV and with his broadcast partners, because it will take a little time for them to get in rhythm. I think Morneau does well as the primary partner and I appreciate how much he brings in analysis beyond "when I played". (I think he does a good job of bringing in his experiences as well, it's just not the only tool in his bag, and he's also good about saying that things have changed without being judgmental about it.) I do like having a 3rd man in from time to time, and both Plouffe and Perkins have done pretty well there. I would also be interested to see how Hawkins would fit in the 3-man booth from time to time, as i do like it when they have the hitter perspective and the pitcher perspective in place. I love it when Perk is really breaking something down, talking stats and why they matter. Same with Hawk when he's really digging in on a pitcher. Both are less successful when they try to make the broadcast into a comedy act. I feel like that's the bad legacy from Bert during the losing years, making them think they need to yuk it up to keep the audience entertained. When Bert was on his game he could predict an entire sequence of pitches to a hitter and then would tell you exactly why it was a good idea or bad one. that's the legacy I want our broadcasters thinking about not rehashing the same jokes and looking for the laugh line. I liked Smalley more than I thought I would recently, and he does bring a different perspective than any of the other guys, and there's no question he knows baseball. Feels like we have a good team in place that can work together and grow even more over a sustained period of time. That's nice, and it would be good if we can keep the team together for that sustained period. Big shoes to fill from Dick Bremer, who was the consummate professional and kept working and evolving with the game. he had a great voice, did the spade-work, and loved the game and the Twins. he'll be missed, he won't be forgotten, but I also know that he'll be rooting for Provus to be great from Day One.

I think this would be true a month into the season if Paddack looks like he can compete as a starter and get through 5-6 innings effectively. Right now, he's still quite an unknown when it comes to how he'll compete as a starter after TJ #2, and there are certainly critics out there who think he has little future as anything other than a bullpen arm, and bullpen arms with little history in high leverage situations aren't as good from an asset standpoint. I think this is about right for now; his value jumps quite a bit if he's really a mid-rotation starter like the Twins seem to believe. (I'm still unsure; I think he has a strong fastball-changeup combo, but needs that 3rd pitch to show to stick in the rotation and we haven't seen that from him enough yet. Healthy with good coaching maybe he gets there, as he's shown flashes. Cautiously optimistic.) I think Martin has the talent to rank higher, but he's battled enough injuries and hasn't developed the power people hoped for that this is more than fair. But I still really like him.

I think he's a great player, and would prefer that he stay with the Twins, playing multiple positions and DHing this season. He makes the lineup stronger and I love his switch-hitting. The only way he should be moved is if we get real value for him, the kind of value for a player that would have been the #1 2B option if he were a free agent and would have gotten a multi-year deal we a substantial raise over his current deal. He's no bag of balls, he's the Twins best trade asset because we have depth at his best positions, he has a good contract, and he's a proven veteran. His only real deficit is health, but he finished the season healthy and played well (and was healthy) the last 2 months of the season, so it shouldn't be the biggest issue. I'd rather keep him, he's still one of the Twins better players and a consistent producer. By all accounts he's a good dude and great teammate. But because of our self-imposed payroll reduction, he makes sense to be a trade option. If he's given away in a salary dump, I'm going to be furious. As part of a package that lands us the starter we need, I can live with dealing Polanco, but I'll be bummed to see him go.

Oh, I don't disagree. I just thought it was interesting that Martin wasn't someone who got tossed from games by the umpire at a particularly high rate. I find Martin to be a fascinating character in baseball history: the ultimate turnaround artist, a shockingly self-destructive persona, a brilliant baseball mind, and a real SOB.

The 1970 squad was very good, but just not deep enough to overcome a few key injuries/under-performance. (Plus running into the Balto juggernaut; unbelievable that they only used 4 pitchers in taking out the Twins in the ALCS) The drop-off from Rod Carew to Danny Thompson was pretty massive at the plate and they just didn't have enough hitters. Pitching staff was pretty great, though. (another "wow, the game has changed!" moment: 1970 Twins only used 13 pitchers the whole season. Now, they start the season with 13 pitchers!) Would Billy Martin have made a difference? Or had he already worn out his welcome even without the fistfight with one of his own players? (amusingly: Martin was only actually tossed 48 times in 16 season; Rigney was thrown 64 times in 19, despite Martin having the reputation as the biggest hothead this side of Durocher) Martin was a lunatic who destroyed himself by his inability to control his demons, but Rigney was just another guy as a manager, really. Martin finished first or second in 8 out of his 10 full-seasons with a team (i'm counting the '81 season as full, since he was the manager for every game there was). Not sure anyone would have beaten those damn O's teams, though.

I think this is the biggest issue with Solano: expecting him to actually be any better in '24 is a little unlikely. For a guy nicknamed "Donnie Barrels", he doesn't actually hit the ball all that hard, so seeing increased production from him is going to be a little hard to find. The other issue is the roster spot: unless there's a move with Polanco/Farmer, I don't have a roster spot for him, so any decision to bring him on board would have to wait until that's resolved. I don't think price is actually going to be the issue; he's going to be in that $2-3M range and even with our self-imposed payroll limitations, that shouldn't be the barrier. It's the roster spot. Have to remember that Royce Lewis and Ed Julien have roster spots from Day One this year when figuring out who is on this squad. If Polanco/Farmer get moved, then it's a question of whether you like Miranda's upside better than Solano's floor. Not an easy decision because we don't know how Miranda is going to respond to his surgery and if he can get that shoulder healthy. I'd probably go for Miranda and bet on upside, but it's not unreasonable to go the other way.

So because you didn't mention stress to the knee in your post, I can't talk about it in my response? Who knows and who cares which is more painful, the issue was that asking someone to do more of an activity that is causing pain, stress, swelling, etc isn't going to be better than having them do less of it. If Buxton had tried to play in the field, he would have been doing more running, jogging, standing, etc and putting more strain on a knee that was never fully healthy, than just DH-ing. The plan didn't really work out because Buxton's knee never responded. It looks like they might have gotten the diagnosis wrong, but people that know a lot more about medicine sure seem to be saying "yeah, this totally could have happened". I suppose if your preference was to get Buxton on the IL faster, he should have just gone out there until he couldn't walk or something, but the team (not unreasonably) thought he could contribute at the plate as a DH. It's important to remember that Buxton had an OPS of .881 through April; the first 20% of the season the plan looked like it was working out ok, because while we missed Buxton in the field, he was producing well at the plate. It wasn't until May that things started going downhill.

What a very silly take. Of course there's more stress on the knee by taking the field and jogging out to the position every inning and chasing after fly balls and line drives in ADDITION to running the bases. You're acting like doing one skips the other. And clearly the feeling and medical opinion was that putting Buxton out in the OF was going to cause enough problems and swelling in the knee that he would have to miss games immediately after playing in the OF (making him unable to even DH). You're also acting like this injury was something Buxton could have just overcome if he's wanted it a little more or the FO had just taken the wraps off, which is proof you don't know anything about Byron Buxton, a player who could have a sword stuck in his gut and would say he's good to go. We'll see what Buxton looks like in spring training. If this cleanup to remove the plica (something most of us had never heard of before now) fixes the swelling and irritation in the knee and allows him to play comfortably...he's likely to be pretty good at the plate. He's still going to be streaky, but there are very few players in MLB that hit well when they have a bum knee, so if he's healthy he'll be better. Can't bet on him staying healthy all season, because he hasn't done it. But past injury history isn't always predictive of future injuries and years of health doesn't guarantee continued health. We'll see, but sometimes all you need is to figure out the real problem to make it happen. Hopefully this cleanup procedure was that.

52 is far too young. RIP, sir.

I don't know if Kepler would be more than an average to below average CF defensively at this point, which is less than good. I think Castro is probably better there at this point (better speed with growing experience) and I'm unclear if he's better than Gordon (Kepler's got the better arm, but I think Gordon has better range), so I just don't know how much of an advantage it is. But the biggest issue is really the fact that the Twins don't have a replacement for Kepler in one of the corner slots ready to go. Sure, Wallner slides into RF easily, but then we're looking at Gordon or Larnach as the internal candidates for LF (with a little Castro/Farmer to support, I guess). Gordon was awful last season before getting hurt, and Larnach has never been able to do it consistently...and they don't compliment each other particularly well either. I'm excited about some of the corner OF coming up in the system: Rodriguez, Rosario, and the Mighty Walker Jenkins, but asking any of them to step in on Day One is a massive risk that's highly unlikely to go well. This is a much easier concept a year from now after (hopefully) E-Rod and Ka'lai have destroyed AA and spent some time mashing in Saint Paul as well, with Walker getting a cup of coffee in AA as well. I think adding a FA 4th OF who can comfortably play in CF still makes the most sense, but rolling with internal options probably makes more sense to me than trying to shift Kepler. Castro, Gordon, and Martin with Kiersey as the "break glass in case of emergency" isn't unreasonable. Castro did well last year, Gordon has had some success at the plate, and I still believe in Martin's talent (he'll get on base if nothing else, and can swipe some bases to boot). Kiersey can certainly handle the position well defensively even if he might not hit his weight. I'm unconcerned with Kepler's beliefs one way or the other, because without an upgrade behind him in the corners, shifting him does nothing for me. (And I'll believe he gets dealt one day after it actually happens, regardless of the rumor mills)

I dunno what a successful career is for Jenkins, but he's off to a great start and clearly doesn't look like a lemon. But it's so hard to predict where he'll land and there are so many potential pitfalls. But he's doing everything right so far and I can't wait to see what his first full year as a pro looks like.

The key for Paddack is going to be whether or not he finds consistency with a 3rd pitch, whether it's the curve or the slider. the fastball should be fine now that he's had the surgery, should be pain-free, and ticks the velocity back up a touch. The change-up is a very effective pitch for him as well. But he's never really had sustained success with a 3rd pitch. the curve looked good in 2023, but he only threw 12 of them in MLB, so who knows. It'll be interesting to see how the twins manage his innings, but he should be able to be a good 5th starter for them with upside for more. Canterino has all the stuff in the world, but his health just hasn't been there. Sure feels like the staff at Rice did him dirty and should have done more to protect and develop his arm health. It's hard to expect much out of him since he's been injured so much, but he's been incredibly hard to hit when he has been able to throw in pro ball. I think I would look at him being a 2-3 inning kind of pitcher this year (whether it's opening a game or relieving) as he builds up stamina and adjusts to pitching again. I suspect he'll spend a little extra time to start the season in FL so that they can work with him where they have expanded facilities and the weather's warmer. but I could see him bouncing up to Saint Paul quickly, in part to see how he does against more advanced hitters but also so the MLB staff can keep an eye on his arm. Paddack will likely be fine, it's just a question of what his ceiling is. Some prognosticators think he's a bullpen guy who will never have the additional pitch to be an effective starter, others have higher expectations. He showed he was healthy again at the end of 2023 and look good enough to inspire some positivity. Canterino has had so much missed time that it's harder to project him for anything. We don't really know how well he's responded to the TJ until he actually gets back on the mound again, but his stuff has always been impressive. I'd like for him to go to the bullpen to try and get him through a full season healthy...and then try and Johan him back into the rotation in 2025, but I'll take any path that keeps him pitching.

interesting pitcher. I just hope that things aren't so tight on the payroll scale that if he's not able to get it done the $1M salary won't deter the Twins from moving on. Considering how fungible so many middle relievers are, I'm ok with trying to find one this way.

I'm fine with a move like this. It costs very little, and if you do unlock him maybe you find your next Brock Stewart. The trick is to not do it too many times all at once, or pin too many hopes on someone emerging. You should take a flyer on a guy this that has real talent and might just be good health or a mechanical (or even personal) adjustment away from realizing their ability every year. You just shouldn't be doing it with 4 guys at once and banking on at least one of them being able to step in immediately, because then your opportunity costs get too high with the value of the roster spot. This is a minor league deal with no guarantees and no spot on the 40-man. It's worth trying.

Well, I think Alcala is going to get a shot this year if he's healthy: the team likes his stuff and he's shown flashes of real ability in the bullpen before his injury, and one of Balazovic, Winder, or Sands is likely to make the roster as well. Which means there's really only room for Varland in the bullpen if they don't sign anyone, and in the rotation if they're unable to sign/trade for anyone. I strongly suspect they will acquire a starter with some kind of pedigree before the season starts, most likely via trade. (I also expect a great deal of disagreement over how good that starter actually is, with people staking out positions that range between quality #2 and "that bum shouldn't even be on a playoff team!" almost regardless of who it is....) I think there's a real possibility that Varland may land in the bullpen eventually, but I tend to believe that the franchise would be better off, both this season and for the future, in giving him another opportunity to stick as a starter. If he can add that 3rd pitch and keep the ball in the park, then he's a great add to the rotation for 2025...and likely will end up starting 10-20 games this season anyways, with room for him to go to the bullpen for the playoff run this year anyways. And if he can get either the slider or the changeup working consistently...he'll be even more dangerous in any role. But he won't really get enough reps to know with any real confidence in the pitch if he's not throwing it a lot more. Do we really need Varland in the bullpen right now, when the biggest need there is not a high leverage late-inning guy, but someone to throw 1-2 innings in the 5th-7th on a semi-regular basis?

I think this sums it up very well. The cutter does look better and it's a legit second pitch for Varland. for him to stick in the rotation, he'll need a 3rd pitch and I think it's an interesting question which it will be: slider or change? I have to wonder if focusing on developing one of them in the offseason will be the key, or can he work on both of them and see which one emerges once he starts facing live hitters in spring training? The Twins will need more than just 5 starters in 2024, and having someone like Varland to pick up 20-25 starts as a relatively young player who is still refining his repertoire is a big asset. Teams end up using 10+ starters during a season (for more than just spot starts, which I consider 5 or more) when they don't have a guy as that 6th starter who can come in and handle the business when someone misses 2-3 weeks with a groin pull. We used essentially 8 starters in 2023: Lopez, Gray, Ryan, Ober, Maeda, Varland, Kuechel, and Mahle. That doesn't happen if we don't have real options as the 6th and 7th guys in Ober and Varland.

I remember that A's series well; I was coming back to MN for a wedding and checked into the hotel in time to see the end of one of the games and it was delightful.

I'm a little baffled by the opposition to relievers generally and Billy Wagner in particular. As noted, there's only 8 relievers in the Hall to date and it's been a pretty notable position and recognizable in the modern context for 50 years. And it's not something that any decent starter can just shift into and succeed; we've seen plenty of guys fail at it. We've also seen more and more that relievers who are consistently great year over year are actually quite a bit more rare (and definitely more valuable). And Billy Wagner was pretty dang great. The man really only had one bad season as a closer (2000) and dominated in his last season at age 38. Has there ever been a better lefty reliever? Wagner dominated everybody, lefty or righty, home or away. He dominated when he was young and old, struck out a gazillion batters. If relievers are a position in baseball and they're eligible for the Hall, then Wagner should be in.

It will be interesting to see where these guys land next season. I tend to think Julien is the most regression-proof; that plate discipline is incredible and he kept it intact through a small slump in 2023, when a lot of young players even really talented ones start expanding the zone. He might get a little more respect from the umpires in 2024, which could help offset any regression. The real key will be whether he can keep consistently doing damage when he does swing at a pitch in the zone. Lewis is the hardest to judge for me; it seems unlikely that he'll out-slug everyone on the Twins by a fair margin...but at the same time, who wants to doubt Mr. Grand Slam? The good thing is he can have a fair significant regression and still be a fantastic player. Wallner looks like the easiest call to regress because of his Ks and we've seen players who K a lot fall into these holes where it seems like they'll never hit a ball again. But Wallner has shown that he can still do damage when he's not contacting the ball a lot, that he can still draw walks...and Cement Bones isn't getting pushed off the plate, which helps him get the pitches he wants and on-base a little more often. I think all three slip back some...but none quite as much as people predict. Lewis will technically slide the most, but will still be excellent, just maybe not a no-doubt all-star in his sophomore season.

I loved Torii Hunter, but...he's not a Hall of Famer in my book. Only 5 all-star appearances, but probably only deserved 4. A lot of good seasons, but never had a truly great year. It's notable that he only finished top 10 for MVP once, and really shouldn't have been that high. I look at guys like Lofton and Edmonds and have trouble seeing a reasonable argument to put Hunter in when both of them are on the outside. Lofton had a much higher peak, and was a better defender with much better speed that he converted on the basepaths to be an elite base-stealer. Edmonds was a much better hitter; Hunter was healthier, not better. I hope Mauer gets in on the first ballot; I think he's got an outside chance, but will definitely make it into the Hall. And he should: he was an elite catcher, one of the best hitting catchers of all-time who also provided good defense. 3 batting titles at catcher? Good luck seeing that again. The peak was so high that voters (non-MN fan edition) aren't going to hold the lessened version who held down 1B through the end of his career. (though he should have gotten a GG at 1B, which would have been a heck of an accomplishment) Utley is the hardest one for me to judge. The counting stats are pretty low, reflective of his relative lack of longevity and injuries, but also of how poorly he played the last 4 seasons. His peak is really high...but also relies on a ton of defensive value, which is a little complicated for a player who never won a Gold Glove. Now, GG voting has frequently been a mess...but it's also pretty rare for a player who was one of the best at their position to be completely shut out for their entire career, and it's not like there was an automatic choice out there that was blocking him off: the award was going to Orlando Hudson, Brandon Phillips, and Luis Castillo. Fine players, but not exactly Sandberg, Morgan, and Mazeroski. So if Utley was so great defensively...how did no one notice? Defense is still the hardest thing to quantify accurately, IMHO, so I get a little nervous when there seems to be this kind of of disconnect.

I'm sorry, but where exactly are you divining the supposed "advice" the front office gave him to focus on home runs? Because that reads like straight up "I hate the Twins front office, so Imma make some $#!@ up about them". You also talk about "wasted talent" like his getting hurt is somehow a moral failing on his part. Wasted talent would be things like if he was getting fat in the offseason, pissing away his ability on cocaine, or being such a clubhouse cancer that no one wants to play with him. None of that stuff is going on here: he's just been hurt. It sucks, but it happens, and he certainly didn't choose to hurt his knee.

I think success means being able to play in the field on a semi-regular basis without needing days off immediately thereafter. If he pulls a hammy and misses 6 weeks that would suck, but it wouldn't be failure to me: things like that happen. But if the knee keeps him off the field for functionally the whole season defensively, then it won't be a particularly successful season, even if he's able to hit well and DH much more often this year. If he is pretty much a DH all season but hits well, then it's a moderate success at best. Unfortunately, it's the one thing that's not entirely in anyone's control. Byron Buxton can't control whether his knee will finally stop barking at him all the time and swelling up like a balloon after he plays. (We know he's doing the work and following the treatment plans) So even if it doesn't work out any better than last season...I'm not going to blame Buxton. He'd certainly would rather be out there playing, and it's not his fault that right now that balky knee is keeping him from realizing his immense talent. A big success involves him playing at least 120 games with half or more of them in the outfield. And I have no doubt if he's healthy enough to do that, he'll be healthy enough to hit the snot out of the ball.

Look, don't get me wrong: I love Polanco and would prefer to keep him. But he's our most tradeable asset if the front office has determined they need to a) cut payroll, and 2) add pitching via trade. But I disagree that playing Julien at 2B compromises the infield. Julien started out wobbly defensively there but definitely improved as the season went along and he hit wonderfully. He can still work on 1B as he goes along, but he's the best bet at 2B if Polanco gets moved. Kirilloff is the one that should be at 1B. (and if Farmer sticks, he makes a nice partner for Julien as a right-handed bat, with Miranda potentially being a good partner for Kirilloff) It's not about selling Polanco short: we're definitely better with him than without him. But if we're trading offensive depth for pitching, he's the most proven asset who also has depth behind him and still frees up payroll space.

I don't need to wait. Unless Petty becomes an elite starter we got exactly what we were looking for at a more than fair price. And even then, you're talking about 5-6 years from the trade, when we needed a starter in MLB immediately. If you're going to swing back in another 3-4 years and say "boy, we shouldn't have traded Chase Petty" then you also need to either admit you would have given up on fielding a competitive team during Gray's time here or explain how exactly you would have filled that hole in the rotation. Because we didn't have anyone internally to do it and Petty (who still has only thrown 8 innings above A-ball) certainly isn't ready. One of the reasons you're pushing Petty out another 3-4 year is dude still hasn't thrown 100 innings in a professional season, He averaged less than 4 innings per start last year and has a long way to go. I still like him, he was a good draft pick for the Twins but he's still got a long way to go and there's still plenty of hurdles to overcome. There's real risk in trading some of our depth on offense to improve the pitching: it's hard to be sure which are going to be the right prospects to move that will maximize our value while hurting us the least by letting them go, but if you're going to make a trade involving prospects to improve the MLB team you can't obsess over whether or not a prospect might be a good MLB player in 2-5 years after the deal. Yeah, it's a bummer to move someone and have them turn into a regular elsewhere, especially if one of the prospects you kept didn't work out, but as long as you didn't give up a real star and you get what you needed, then it's the price of doing business. This is why they were willing to move Petty: they needed a pitcher like Gray, and while Petty is a nice prospect he's not dominating and was far enough away there was substantial risk. Right now, we're looking at moving Polanco, who is proven but more expensive, but should bring a substantial return. Maybe they're looking at moving Kepler, but we've been hearing that for years and it never happens. Twins aren't going to be packaging Polanco, Kepler, and 2 position player prospects for an average starter, either. We have the depth to move a player like Polanco right now without substantially impacting the offense; as much as I still like the guy, his production can be filled by full seasons from Julien and Lewis with the club (and I haven't given up on Miranda). We're not dealing Brooks Lee for a 5th starter or a 1-year rental. There's risk in any trade, but ITA there's just as much risk in standing pat and refusing to deal. We have the ability to compete right now, but we need one more playoff caliber starter to be a real contender. We shouldn't be afraid to make moves to try and compete.

I mean, that's the basic problem here, so I don't think it's glossed over. The Twins likely can't afford to sign a player that isn't going to be available for more than 110 games or so, even with extensive time as a DH at the kind of price that Garver is likely to command. They're dropping some payroll and that makes this unlikely. If we were maintaining roughly last season's payroll, then I'd love to give him the payroll slot taken up by Gallo last season, even with the risk of injury. But the team isn't going to have that kind of money available, and in significantly more constrained payroll the injury risk becomes more problematic as well.