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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I think Kala'i Rosario has done enough to merit a higher placement; he's producing well at high A at age 20 and looking like an interesting corner OF prospect. A little surprised that Cossetti didn't crack the top 30; I get that he's older, but if he can stick at catcher he's someone to watch. Again, I get that he's older, but he's crushing it in the FSL and that's not the easiest environment and he's almost certainly going to be moved up by midseason unless he completely tanks or gets hurt...I would think. I have no idea where to place Kyle Jones, Cory Lewis, and Zebby Matthews right now. they're all interesting college arms, but it's hard to know if anything they do in A-ball matters much?
  2. jmlease1
    It's in interesting question. It does look like his future might be as a multi-inning reliever in MLB, but at the same time with us having already delved into our starter depth, there may be a need for a spot start (or more) still before Maeda comes back and right now the only real other options are Headrick and SWR. At the same time, the twins are still looking for another reliable bullpen arm. Interesting question. the good news is Balazovic seems to have righted the ship for himself and is pitching like a real prospect again, rather than a guy looking for a life raft.
  3. jmlease1
    That was an absolutely elite play. Correa first had to go a ways to get it, had to react to farmer not being able to make a play on it in front of him, and then make a really long throw with velocity and accuracy. he placed the skip perfectly so the ball came off the grass cleanly and turned it into almost an easy play for Kirilloff. Loved that. Correa may be scrabbling and inconsistent at the plate right now, but it's not impacting his defense. Funny how Solano and Castro (who have been the most frequent "get rid of them!" targets around here, including by me) stepped up tonight. But it was good to get as many RH bats in the lineup tonight against Kershaw, who is still a monster, and the 2 LH bats were Kirilloff and Gallo who have relative neutral splits. I'm a big fan of Moran, even if his control can be maddening. I just love that change-up, and he got the job done last night with the bullpen a bit overtaxed from the long game the night before.
  4. jmlease1
    Nice game from Brooks Lee, who had been scuffling a little bit. Especially good to see him flash the power. But Royce Lewis is the story. Jumping back into the AAA and looking good. There might be a setback along the way, but he really does look healthy. I'm rooting so hard for this dude.
  5. jmlease1
    Early in the game I was thinking "here we go again" when Buxton got rung up on a curveball that never entered any part of the zone and you had to wonder if Kershaw was going to get the marginal pitches and Ober wasn't. (and to be fair, Kershaw was closer to the zone more often than Ober early) but the Twins hitters stuck with the game plan and made Kershaw really work. Ober looked wobbly in the first and then really settled down to contain a tough lineup with 6 very good innings. Very nice win. Here's hoping they pull off the win this afternoon and take the series.
  6. jmlease1
    we don't really have a right-handed option at 1B right now, and I guess Solano fills that role if needed. He's been a little disappointing offensively and surprisingly poor defensively, but as an occasional option I can see why they might be willing to give him more rope. Kirilloff's return is rightly pushing him down in the pecking order and hopefully reduces his actual impact.
  7. jmlease1
    That's fine if they're guys like Arraez at the plate (and can stay healthy, and play decent defense, etc); that's not fine when they're more like Astudillo. Willans Astudillo had a career Batting Average of .267. That's higher than 9 guys currently on the 16 man roster, and 14 of the 18 hitters that have taken ABs for the Twins this season, for this season. You will lose a LOT more games with a lineup of Astudillos over the current group. But the ball will be in play!
  8. jmlease1
    I'm a little surprised to see Julien on the list. Not because I don't think he's a very talented hitting prospect, but these lists always seem to favor projection over production and are much less interested in prospects who are 24 and in AAA. 4 prospects on the list for a team that's currently in contention is pretty good, especially when we have the #5 pick in the upcoming draft.
  9. jmlease1
    Talented player and will have to be protected this year in the Rule 5, but he's got to cut down on the Ks. I'm thrilled to see his power output blossom, but this level of K-rate seems unsustainable. He's even higher than Wallner was last season at Wichita, and it certainly made Wallner's life difficult in his first attempts at MLB.
  10. jmlease1
    Two highly impactful calls, though. Umps botching it up in high leverage situations is at least as frustrating as players striking out when the bases are loaded or a pitcher walking in a run. WPA tells a lot about who is most responsible for a win or a loss: last night the worst performers for the Twins were (in order) Alex Kirilloff, Pablo Lopez, and Griffin Jax. How much of Kirilloff's -0.391 should be assigned to Cuzzi? because I'm pretty sure that phantom K in the 10th accounts for a big ol' chunk of it.
  11. jmlease1
    I don't really understand this kind of comment. Do you expect Rocco to rip his own players in the post-game? That's just not how modern managing works. It's always been super-overrated as a motivational tactic, and ends up being counter-productive. Who calls the pitches? that would be the catcher. Lopez did a great job in the 11th, and couldn't quite hold it in the 12th when he didn't get a borderline call on the 5th pitch of the AB (considering Cuzzi's "strike zone"). It's not like he couldn't find the strike zone at all.
  12. jmlease1
    They would not be talking about him like he was a Hall of Famer today. Kingman wasn't that good of an offensive player. He hit HRs, but that was it; Kingman only hit 20+ doubles 3 times in 16 seasons. He didn't walk much; only cleared 50 BBs 3 times as well. He's a more neutral version of Adam Dunn (Dunn was significantly better on offense and one of the worst defensive players in MLB, impressively worse than Kingman) and no one is considering Dunn for the Hall. Kingman wasn't exactly a great teammate either, but that's less relevant. Dunn was a 2 time all-star, Kingman got 3...both of them probably deserved maybe ONE. Joey Gallo is closing in on Kingman in terms of bWAR already and he hasn't even finished his 9th season yet. No one is talking about Gallo has a Hall of Fame-type player either, although Gallo was more deserving in both of his all-star campaigns than Dunn or Kingman in any of theirs. Carew absolutely would not have been in the Hall if he hit .209. I I guess I don't understand the point? It's like saying Wade Boggs wouldn't have been in the Hall if he hit .209. Or Reggie Jackson wouldn't be in the hall if he'd only hit 400 HRs. Getting a lot of hits was key to Carew's success, but he's not in the hall just because he got a ton of singles: Carew drew 50+ BBs 10 times. 20+ 2Bs 13 times. 10+ 3Bs 5 times. OBP over .400 8 times. SLG% over .425 9 times. (for comparison, Arraez hasn't finished with an OBP over .400 yet in his career, though he's on track right now. SLG of .425 once, but again on track this year.) Bating average isn't meaningless, but it is limited. It describes only a small portion of a player's offensive contributions. It still seems to be focused on by a lot of people because does illustrate players that play an aesthetically pleasing style of baseball, even if it's not necessarily always a winning one.
  13. jmlease1
    wow. when the other announcing team is that explicit in how badly Kirilloff got screwed...that's something. I am indeed ready for the electronic strike zone. It seems like it's every game now that there's a howler.
  14. jmlease1
    Not a bad draft. Lewis, Rooker, Ober, Contreras, and Barnes all made it to MLB with the Twins, and Lewis' problems have had nothing to do with talent or ability to translate his tools into production, only injury which you just can't predict. (admittedly, Rooker & Contreras didn't really produce anything for the Twins and Barnes was a fill-in...but just making it to MLB is hard!) Leach was a miss, but a lot of 2nd round picks bust. especially teenage pitchers. Enlow looks like he might be back on track and he's another player whose problem is entirely tied to injury rather than to ability. If he's back on the 40-man after this season and finishes in AAA, that will be very nice. Was Lewis the right pick? It's still too early to tell. Wright had one good season, but at 27 hasn't really produced for Atlanta, despite pitching in parts of 6 different seasons for them. 2.6 bWAR over 6 is not great. Greene definitely looks good for the Reds, but McKay is a bust, and while Gore has been pretty good this season his control has been shaky his whole pro career and I question whether he'll be looking good by fall. Not one single star has emerged from the top 10 picks to this point (Greene is the closest) reminding us again what a crapshoot the MLB draft still is. Only 1 all-star appearance from anyone in the 1st round to date (Trevor Rogers, and that's looking a little fluky). It'll be interesting to see if Rooker holds up all season or if he's just shining on a truly terrible team. I can't fault the Twins for moving him; he didn't look good in 2021 for the Twins and got a fair number of chances. He couldn't crack the KC lineup last season either, despite them being terrible and needing hitting. It was pretty understandable if people thought he was a AAAA player at his age, and it looks like he's made some substantial changes in his approach this year. Unusual for a guy to figure it out at 28, but good for him.
  15. jmlease1
    I think he might have challenged for Castro's spot without the injury in spring training. This latest injury stinks for him because until Lewis is ready, he might have gotten a chance if someone else had gone down. He doesn't have a big window in which to impress, unfortunately, because there are a lot of prospects that play his positions with a better pedigree and higher upside.
  16. jmlease1
    Rod Carew was a hall of famer, so...no. Carew was substantially better on offense for his career, in part because he also walked more than Kingman. Carew also didn't just slap a bunch of singles; he had 45% more doubles and 4 1/2 times as many triples than Kingman, which makes up to a degree for the many more HRs that Kingman hit. Kingman was also a rotten defender, and Carew was a decent one. The Twins were better off with Carew not because of just his batting average, but because he also had a better on-base %, a better OPS, a better OPS+, and was a much better defensive player. I mean, you're comparing an 18-time all-star vs a 3 time all-star (who played on teams that didn't have a lot of other options and was a marginal to poor choice all three years), a no-doubt Hall of Famer, MVP, and RoY against a guy who was...just a guy. Arraez is a very good player and currently having a Carew-like year. but it's been less than 1/4 of the season for a player that struggled down the stretch last year because of chronic leg problems. He's healthy now and playing great (good for him! I love Luis Arraez) but he did similar things for the Twins last season before falling off significantly. he's struggled against lefties his whole career and has a pretty significant split again this season. So far, Gallo and Arraez have been pretty similar in terms of their overall offensive contributions, albeit in very different ways. Arraez could end up providing more total value over the course of the season (and has so far) if he's able to stay healthy and at 2B...but that's a pretty huge if. Too early to really compare him to Rod Carew.
  17. jmlease1
    The lineup definitely got off to a slow start this season, with some players underperforming and others getting pretty unlucky out there (i.e., hard hit balls going straight at someone). Obviously the offensive explosion from this weekend isn't sustainable, but there's a real likelihood that more consistent run support is on the way. A lot of us have ben very hopeful about Kirilloff; the bat plays, it's just a question of whether or not he's healthy. So far, so good on that end of things, and he adds something a little different to the lineup, potentially. It's still relatively small sample sizes, but he also hasn't presented big splits either, so he shouldn't need to be platooned much. I'll be interested to see if he's still showing this excellent strike zone judgment as the season progresses, because if he's refined that and keeps drawing walks when they don't give him anything worth swinging at, he's going to continue to be a force. Having Polanco back is also a big addition, even if he's dropped off a bit from his season debut. He's a threat in the lineup and one of the things we saw from Bomba Squad days was how much a deeper lineup could exhaust a pitcher. With Taylor showing a better power stroke this season, Vazquez is really the only zero in the lineup right now. The big question for me is whether or not Gordon can find his form again. he's still not looking good at the plate and while he's been a little unlucky, he's also been bad, reverting back to some old habits i think. It would be nice to have him be a more solid bench bat, especially with Solano and Castro doing little to impress.
  18. jmlease1
    Great to see the offense have another big day. Stroman has been really good this season, so knocking him out early is pretty dang good. Good work on offense up and down the order. Kirilloff's wrist must be feel good, but I'm also glad to see Correa looking like he's rounding into form. Varland did a nice job front-running the game. Good sign when the biggest problem is him giving up a couple of solo shots when we have a big lead. (I do worry a little about his propensity to give up the long ball) Like the way the Twins are defending home territory. Always happy to see a series win. Don't care for having position players pitch, and I have to say it seems pretty silly for 1 out. (though we may have seen why the Twins decided not to bring back Fulmer)
  19. jmlease1
    Batting average is still a bit overrated, but it's still more useful than RBIs in telling you things about who the player is and how much they contribute to the offense.
  20. jmlease1
    Gallo is who he is. He's never going to get a ton of hits, but as hard as he hits the ball he's going to get a high % of doubles and HRs. He's drawing walks, he's hitting for power, and he's got an OPS+ of 143 while playing gold-glove caliber defense. He doesn't need to hit .250 to be a plus for the offense; he just can't be down at .160 like he was in NY and LA, with a serious power outage. Despite the low BA, he's still got one of the best OBPs on the roster.
  21. jmlease1
    What a world we live in where 95mph fastballs are only average-ish velocity. Varland has talent but he needs to keep working on refining his pitches, hitting his spots, and working his pitch mix. The changeup is generating whiffs, but when he misses with it, it's getting hammered. He probably needs that velocity on his 4-seamer to keep the other pitches playing up, but he hasn't been able to consistently spot it enough to keep it from getting thumped way too often. The slider is better than advertised and it's good to see the cutter avoiding hard contact more this season. He's going to get a lot of opportunity this season to show he can be a part of this rotation. Looking forward to seeing how he does.
  22. jmlease1
    I think it's going to be an interesting decision on Severino. He's pounding the ball right now, but he's also got a million strikeouts, which is concerning. Glad to see Royce get a couple of hits early in the rehab assignment. Cossetti sure seems to be lining himself up for an early promotion. Would like to see him moved up sooner rather than later, see how he does against better competition.
  23. jmlease1
    An excellent win. Ryan is off to a fantastic start this season and the new pitch mix sure seems to have him in a groove. It'll be interesting to see if he can improve a little on finishing off hitters faster; it's basically the only thing he needs to get better on right now. Nice to see the offense break out, lot of guys had been scrabbling, so it's good to see several guys get it going at once. Correa looks like he might be heating up, which we need. Gallo is going to be a boom or bust player and that's going to be frustrating, but the highs have been higher than the lows and his defense makes it much more palatable to get through the slumps. Kirilloff is rolling, which is wonderful to see. His bat has always had the potential to be special, and it's really only the injuries that have ever held him back. The power production is the best sign right now: every time his wrist has been barking at him, his power has fallen down through the floor. Sands really can't give up 5 walks when the team is up big like that. He got through it, but next time he's going to get killed. Happy he finished off the game, but he's got to do better. He may be riding a 1.50 ERA, but his FIP and WHIP are dreadful; he's been more lucky than good.
  24. jmlease1
    But there was no injury history on Dyson, who was pitching at the time. Did SF intentionally sell us damaged goods at the deadline? Maybe, but good luck proving it. And without being able to show the Twins knew Dyson was injured, Mahle's the only deadline deal we've made where the guy was a known injury risk.
  25. jmlease1
    well, I'm much higher on Pablo Lopez than you are (I think it's silly to downgrade a player because he's "nice"), but I do think the adjustments Ryan has been making are for real and he's rising as a starter. The split-change is very effective down in the zone and he works his fastball very well up in the zone and being able to consistently change a hitter's eye level with pitches that are hard to square up on is an excellent combo. I've been a big Joe Ryan fan ever since they acquired him, and it's great to see him continue to improve. The pitch clock clearly doesn't bother him as he always worked pretty quickly, and he shows no fear on the mound.
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