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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    My instinct is to keep an additional lefty and hang on to Funderburk over Paddack, and slide Maeda into the relief role rather than Ryan (I don't know that Ryan's stuff plays up at all in relief, so he's then really just a "break glass in case of emergency" player, and if that happens we have bigger problems. Maeda's breaking stuff and no need to pace himself makes him deployable situationally). Paddack is looking good right now, but he's still just coming back from TJ and I think there might be more utility in having a second lefty than a righty who would be behind Duran, Jax, Stewart, Varland, Pagan, and likely Maeda in the pecking order. Otherwise, I agree with this roster for the wild card. Personally I would consider going with 16 position players, but I think there's little chance the Twins will, so I'm just going to hope beyond hope they stick at 15-11 and don't do something silly like carry 12 pitchers and have at least 2 of them never play. This is predicated on Royce & Correa & Buxton being able to play, of course, but I think that's likely. Correa could probably play right now if they really needed him; his absence is about trying to get him as right as possible. Buxton is an interesting question, but for a short series I think he's likely to be able to go, even if it might not be in the field. As a right-hand bat I still would rather bet on his talent than the other options. Royce is the biggest concern...hamstring injuries are what they are and you just won't know until you know if he can go. I hope he can't; he's an energizer and a heck of a player. I think he makes it. If one of the "injured three" can't go, Luplow seems like a good option to add as a RH bat.
  2. jmlease1
    Good job finishing off the division title! Always good to get it done on your own terms, at home, and without having to take multiple shots at it. Good job by the Twins not letting it hang around. Happy to see Kirilloff get a dinger; if he's elevating the ball and flashing power it's a great sign for this club. I'm a huge fan of him as a hitter, but when he gets dinged up it really shows for him at the plate. And props to Julien for drawing a walk against a lefty for the first time this season. (Twins drew 10 walks. 10! that's crazy) Lopez looked really great early. Had a wobbly inning but still gave us a solid 6. Varland looked pretty great; that cutter seems to be really playing up now that he's hucking it at 90+. Duran's command was a bit off, but the bloody Angels also took good ABs against him. (plus you could see some of their guys up there really hoping for the walk). Glad he finished it. Rest up, get everyone as healthy as possible and let's get ready for the post-season!
  3. jmlease1
    Seriously. Gray & Lopez have been the MVPs this season, leading the rotation and providing impact innings. The lineup this year is filled with a bunch of guys who have been good for partial seasons or solid starting quality for most if not all of the year, but none of them has been as truly impactful and valuable as those two starters. Gray is going to finish top 5 in the AL Cy Young. Lopez is likely to get votes and could land top 10. Castro has been excellent for the team, come up in big moments, added an additional dimension and been available basically all season. That's important and we love him. But in terms of team MVP is he really more valuable than any one of Julien, Lewis, Jeffers, or Taylor? They've all been important, especially in a year where Buxton and Correa haven't performed to their standards (ugh, I hate injuries!). Arguably, the MVP on this team is simply depth. We haven't given away as many innings or ABs to players who just aren't up to MLB quality this year as last and it's made a huge difference. Instead of 240 innings going to Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer they've gone to Pablo Lopez and more of Sonny Gray. Instead of Celestino, we've had Michael A. Taylor. as the injuries piled up, there were a lot of ABs that went to guys that either weren't ready, were playing through injury, or not MLB players. This year, we have guys like Farmer and Solano, and Castro to absorb those rather than hoping Palacios or Contreras might get lucky. Very nice win against a Cincy team fighting for the playoffs. Never complain about winning a series on the road. Division is basically locked up, so let's get everyone healthy and ready for playoffs!
  4. jmlease1
    Gray has been excellent this season, and done exactly what the Twins hoped he could do when they traded for him. It's been great. he's been healthy and effective, and he's having one of his best seasons of his career. (appropriate, in Sonny Gray's 3 best seasons, he's also been an all-star) His previous other excellent seasons he's finished in the top 10 of Cy Young voting, and deserve that accolade again this season. he's not going to win this year. And that's ok: Cole has been better. Not massively, not absurdly...but he has. More innings, more Ks, fewer walks and basically the same ERA. I'd give it to Cole. Gray should be top 5 for sure.
  5. jmlease1
    They've had some busts at the top of the draft (Cavaco & Sabato are notable) that were questionable at the time, but overall their drafts are producing and they've done a good job of finding value in later round picks, so it's not just dependent on the first rounder making good. Sure, Sabato probably isn't going to be anything...but Kal'ai Rosario and Marco Raya might. Even after dealing significant assets from the 2021 draft away, they still have guys like Festa, Ohl, and Nowlin developing in the pipeline. I'm pretty impressed overall with their drafts and subsequent development of players in the minors. They're not all going to work, but it's easy to see where talent is starting to flow upwards on a consistent basis. They're going to be facing some real questions on who to add to the 40-man and could have real competition for spots on the MLB roster even without free agent signings, and that's a great problem to have. Julien, Wallner, Lewis, Ober are all important contributors to this team, Varland coming in late to shore up the bullpen is big...and the cupboard is not bare!
  6. jmlease1
    Castro really had a excellent game. He's exactly what you like to have in this kind of super-utility role: switch hitter, loads of positional flexibility without major defensive downgrades, and speed. He's close to league average as a hitter, they've been able to keep him for being over-stretched at SS (while still being an option if needed)...he's been a great for for this team and was really important last night. I will admit, I didn't think a lot of the move. I thought it was a depth move that wouldn't have much impact, but since he had an option left I figured he'd end up as a "break glass" replacement in AAA. The utilization of his speed and development of his skill as a baserunner has really increased his value. It's interesting that he didn't do this much in Detroit; he had shown some signs in the minors of having the ability. He's also done a good job this season of being more patient at the plate and taking his walks.
  7. jmlease1
    I really hope it's not something significant with Royce. Considering how he looked when he felt something during that AB, I'm definitely worried. It would be a real shame for him to go down at the end of a breakout season, after fighting his way back from injury again, and possibly have to miss the playoffs. Maeda did very nicely and the bullpen finished it off. Thought Funderburke looked pretty good out there and he's an interesting case to be the second lefty in the bullpen. Just get healthy, stay healthy, guys. Division title is almost officially secured.
  8. jmlease1
    I just want the roster to be 15 position players and 11 pitchers. (I would consider 16 and 10 frankly, but that seems a bridge too far for a team that prefers to have 1-2 pitchers do nothing most of the time as insurance than have another bench bat) Stevenson seems like a reasonable choice as a 15th man, considering he provides defense and baserunning. I don't know about Ober; feels like he'd be the 4th starter who would then be the 11th pitcher since you only need 3 in the Wild Card. (Maeda has a history of being an impact reliever in the playoffs and would get used; would Ober?) I think there's still probably room for him (there's not much difference between carrying 7 relievers and carrying 8 in short series) but for the WC he's not the greatest fit.
  9. jmlease1
    I think they do want him back and would be happy to sign him to a 3-year deal...I just think he's going to get 4-5 year offers from someone, and the Twins won't want to go that long on a pitcher who's almost 34 already. Putting the QO on him makes perfect sense and will return value. I think the Twins have a better chance of retaining Maeda on a shorter term deal, and they might be interested in that to maintain rotation depth.
  10. jmlease1

    Royce Lewis: ROY?

    jmlease1 commented on Obie's blog entry in Blog Obie

    I don't think it's really east coast bias on Henderson: he's been a beast for the last 4 months (and while he started a little slower, it's not like he was terrible). Might be the best hitter on a team that could win a very difficult division, plays good defense...he's a very worthy pick. Lewis & Julien both deserve some votes, but I'd give it to Henderson. If Royce doesn't miss July and half of August with the oblique injury? He probably is right there. but Henderson did play during that time and was great.
  11. jmlease1
    well, arguably Yunior Severino could be seen as an international free agent, and Emmanuel Rodriguez was an international signing as well. But there hasn't been much in the way of pitching in a while. That said, as much of a crap shoot as the draft still is in baseball, international signings are even more variable, I think.
  12. jmlease1
    I don't miss hitters stepping out after every pitch to adjust 27 pieces of equipment, re-velcro their batting gloves, etc. I don't miss pitchers meditating on the mound for an eternity before throwing the ball I don't miss throwing over to 1B eleventy-billion times when anyone with a modicum of speed got to 1B
  13. jmlease1
    Excellent series win. Taking 3 of 4 on the road against a division rival is very good baseball, even if the ChiSox stink this year. Gray looked very good and it was nice to see him bounce back after an outing he wasn't happy with to shut things down. he's looking healthy and ready and will start either game 1 or game 2 of whatever playoff series we land in. He's done a great job keeping the ball in the park this season. After he next start, he'll have thrown more innings this year since he was 25. Twins have done a good job keeping him healthy and strong this season. Good work by Pagan and Jax, but hopefully we'll be able to get Jax some additional days off. He's been worked pretty hard this season. On to Cincy!
  14. jmlease1
    Another fine win for the Twins. More shoddy and sloppy defense from Chicago; how much is it them quitting on the season and already mentally being on the beach and how much of it is them being a sloppy and poor defensive team for quite a while now? This isn't a new issue for them, but it's certainly a reason to clean house over there. Royce Lewis! Huzzah for Royce Lewis. Such a fun player to watch, so glad he's healthy and showing what he can do. Loved seeing him hammer out another slam, but almost as happy to see him comfortably draw 3 free passes in a game. Pitchers are going to adjust to him; showing patience like this will make it harder on them. I wonder what happened with Kopech; really thought he was going to be a big part of making Chicago a team to be concerned about this season and he's been a mess. Varland looks good as a 2-inning guy; I can see him being a weapon in a playoff game where one of our starters guts through 5 tough innings and Varland comes in and bridges the game to the back of the bullpen. I still think he has a future as a starter (and I think the Twins do as well), but he adds real firepower to the bullpen right now and I'm glad to see him sliding into that role.
  15. jmlease1
    Except Julien does hit for power and can run (he was a fine basestealer in the minors). Julien's weaknesses are: hitting LHP (which was an issue for Arraez as well, but so far in a small sample, Julien has been brutal there) and defense (has looked shaky at times and has a poor arm, but has done better lately). Julien also has what...5 more seasons of team control? This is a guy who can be part of the core, especially if he starts figuring out how to hit lefties. I miss Arraez: good guy, great hitter for average, fun player and adds a lot to the team. But we needed stalwarts in the rotation, and we got that in Lopez, who is also awfully fun to watch, is a good dude, an excellent pitcher, and adds a lot to the team. I don't think either team has any real regrets. It'll be interesting to see if Miami signs Arraez to a long-term deal and what the terms are if they do; signing Lopez to a below rate extension really makes me feel good about the Twins business in this one. And who knows? Maybe one of the prospects will show out.
  16. jmlease1
    It's a good point. If the only way you'll deal with a team is if you're screwing them, then why would anyone deal with you? there are going to be cases where one team values a player differently than another team, but for the most part there's going to be fairly close valuations.
  17. jmlease1
    I'm sorry, but do you actually believe this? That the Twins front office didn't want Arraez's influence over other hitters? Or that the players have simply all taken it upon themselves to now go their own way and ignore input from the coaching staff, scouts, etc? because that's just silliness. The current FO is the same one that promoted him from A+ to AA, then to AAA, then to MLB. They moved him from AA to MLB in the same year, and then kept rolling with him. the idea that they traded him to keep his voice out of the room is ludicrous. They dealt Arraez not because they didn't like him, but because he had a lot of value at a position they had a lot of depth at. In order to get what they really needed (and boy did we still need pitching) we had to give up someone that was established and had real value. That's Arraez. the other option was Polanco, but Polanco's value was likely lower at the time because of the injury he'd had last season, the time he had missed, the contract he had, and being older. It was a good trade for the Twins, even if it meant giving up a player that everyone loved. That includes the front office: they loved him too. But Pablo Lopez has been very good for us and is lined up to lead the rotation for the next several year, which is something we didn't have: an established, all-star quality starter in his prime to lead the rotation.
  18. jmlease1
    Gallo and Wallner both have more raw power than Lewis for sure. But it's awfully nice to see Royce pound one like that. You can really see the talent that made the Twins grab him in the draft. So nice that he's finally getting to show it. Hope he stays healthy because the dude can play.
  19. jmlease1
    Very nice game. ChiSox do still have some talent in their lineup, so it's good to see the Twins handle them fairly easily. Wallner had been scuffling a bit, so it's good to see him getting some hits again. Julien's approach really doesn't change whether he's getting the balls to drop or not, and that's pretty advanced for a rookie. Royce Lewis made me nervous when he rolled the ankle; dude has had way too much injury bad luck, so I'm glad it didn't take him out of the lineup. Moved to the edge of my seat when he came up with the bases loaded. Would have loved to see the dinger there, but I love the fact that he calmly drew the run-scoring walk and didn't expand the zone and chase looking for glory. A good game for the Twins. I love beating Chicago. I thought they were being overrated going into the season (a lot of people picked them ahead of the Twins this year) and they stink. Let's beat up on a team that desperately needs the season to be over and shrink that magic number fast!
  20. jmlease1
    He's mostly played 2B/3B and while he's not great at either, he's also not a butcher. He's been playing some 1B for the Saints, and last played LF in 2022. He looks like a likely candidate to slide over to 1B but could still potentially play some OF, I guess? Right now he looks like he'll be starting the season next year in AAA and be the likely call up when the Twins need some innings at 1B. His ability as a switch hitter will definitely help him, as so far he's shown ability to hit from both sides of the plate with power. It's been a heck of a season for him and a really easy add to the 40-man.
  21. jmlease1
    Never? Matt Olson has a platoon split, but it's not all that extreme and he's a quality hitter against basically everyone. You don't see Rocco pinch-hitting for Correa based on matchups either (he gets subbed out to give him some time off, not to go find a platoon advantage). I love Ed Julien, and I think he's going to be a big part of the team's success now and in the future...but so far he's been really bad against LHP. Julien draws walks by the bushel, and has exactly zero so far against a LHP. That's a little concerning for a guy who draws one 1 out of 6 PAs. Yes, it's only 42 PAs so far, but zero walks and only 1 xbh and he hasn't looked good against lefties at all. The reality is TB has a great bullpen.
  22. jmlease1
    Laudner really wasn't a first-rate big league catcher. He was just a Twin for 9 years and part of the magical 1987 WS. His all-star appearance was driven by a small sample size hot first half in 1988, plus the fact that TK was picking the reserves and Kent Hrbek refused to go if he couldn't get voted in. (He immediately cratered at the plate for the second half of the season) For all that people have taken shots at Joe Mauer's lack of durability, Laudner never played 120 games in a season and never had 400 ABs. And frankly, he's been overrated defensively, which was supposedly his calling card. while WAR isn't the end-all be-all of stats, 3.2 bWAR/4.0 fWAR over 9 seasons of work is pretty close to replacement-level. Brian Harper, on the other hand...
  23. jmlease1
    Really nice win against a typically excellent and irritating to play TB squad. very impressed with how well Varland did in getting the team through the middle innings, and it was really great to see Duran showing good command and closing out the game. he didn't look stressed at all slinging it at 102! That's just amazing. Happy for Julien and Wallner to get off the schnide. Really appreciate how Julien has still taken his walks throughout this little hitting slump: a lot of young player would have expanded the strike zone looking for something to hit, but he stayed disciplined, kept getting on base and hit some balls hard tonight. that's a really good sign. Series win would be great!
  24. jmlease1
    This. I thought Larnach was out of options after this season, but if he has one remaining there's pretty much no reason for the Twins to move on from him unless they think he's suddenly going to be poison in the locker room in AAA. I expect Kepler to be back until he's actually gone. While Wallner appears to have passed Larnach on the depth chart, it's always possible that Larnach could beat him out in spring training, but he definitely provides good depth against any of the LH OF bats going down with an injury and would make it easier to go into the season with 4 primary OF (say, Buxton, Kepler, Wallner, and Martin) and keep guys like Farmer and Polanco on the roster. There's actually not all that much depth pushing for jobs in the OF in the minors right now outside of Martin (who also can play in the infield) and Larnach (who has struggled mightily against breaking balls in MLB). Severino has little experience in the OF, so from a prospect perspective the next group are A-ball guys like Rosario and Rodriguez who haven't even tasted AA yet. (or walker jenkins, who hasn't left FL) There's real talent rising, but if you take Larnach out of the picture, lock Kirilloff in at 1B (and presume Gallo is gone) the Twins no longer have a huge reservoir of LH corner OFs ready to roll. Keep Larnach. Have him battle with Wallner for the job. Be ready when someone gets hurt. Worry about dealing anyone at midseason or after 2024.
  25. jmlease1
    He hasn't been particularly healthy this season but FanGraphs still pegs him at being worth $11.2M. (other metrics would rank him higher) There's decent odds he'll play more next season than this one, frankly, and while he hasn't been healthy the last 2 seasons...it's the same injury that dropped him from the end of last season and had him missing the time in the middle of this season. If he finishes this season without injury, has a healthy off-season he seems fairly likely to have a reasonably healthy season. And if someone like Farmer is moved, Polanco could slide into a role where the expectation is for him to play 125-140 games at multiple positions with plenty of rest to keep him on the field and producing.
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