jmlease1

What a bummer about Moran. I know he was wild and a little inconsistent, but that changeup was such a weapon. Was really hoping he could get things under control and be a factor. Hope he will come back on a 2-year minor league deal, but it's a shame that he needs TJ. Henriquez feels a bit like a 4A player: too good for AAA, but not quite good enough to succeed consistently in MLB. Probably the right move to non-tender him. Twins big challenge this off-season really isn't the 40-man, it's the 26-man. they don't have a lot of spots available on the 26-man, and they're not giving themselves a lot of payroll room either (self-imposed problem, but still a problem). The 40-man seems to be in good shape.

Castro was too integral to the team last season for them to option him in favor of a more limited player. And if Farmer gets moved, he's also the only backup SS they realistically have. the 26-man roster is very tight right now unless the Twins suddenly have a change in philosophy and start carrying only 12 pitchers (which is something I think they should consider, frankly; having 2 pitchers that only get used once a week is a redundancy they maybe can't afford; there were stretches were a guy like Winder or sands was on the roster but only threw once every 10-14 days). I agree the FO doesn't like to give a away a player for nothing, and would rather exercise options when they can...but Castro is just ahead of Gordon on the depth chart now. Moreover, I think they increasingly see him as an OF rather than an INF, which means they'd need to be finding room for a 5th OF, since he's not going to take Kepler or Wallner's spot, unless they seriously think he can be the primary backup to Buxton in CF...which seems unlikely.

Tough to find room for him on this roster. He's essentially just an OF for the Twins at this point (he's only a "break glass in case of emergency" SS, there are too many guys ahead of him at 2B, the Twins haven't shown any interest in playing him at 3B, and first base doesn't look like a good fit for him) but he's hardly a prototypical corner OF, and Wallner and Kepler are both LH options ahead of him. He was passable in CF and could still improve there in time, but it might be asking a lot to have him be the primary backup to Buxton...and I think the Twins would prefer to have a 4th OF who hits RH. Hardly playing (and being mired in a deep slump when he did play early) really reduces his trade value. But I would still look to move him. Otherwise I think he gets cut out of training camp and someone will pick him up on waivers for free. besides, the Twins could probably use the 40-man spot. Not sure you get more than an A-ball reliever at this point, but maybe he can be part of a package. Too bad. Seems like a good dude, and he's been really unlucky with his health and injuries.

That's fair. Jenkins is a major talent and so far has met every challenge with seeming ease. But a high school draft pick debuting at 21 is still pretty fantastic. That's the Joe Mauer path, and Jenkins is already a little ahead of that (Joe spent his first season in rookie ball, Jenkins has low-A games under his belt). He's been so good so far that it's easy to see him rocketing up tp AA in 2024, but it would still be a huge success if he finishes the year in Cedar Rapids. Keaschall and Schobel have the same problem in front of them to get up to MLB by 2025/26: lot of guys in front of them. Hard not to see Julien, Lee, and Lewis owning 2B/3B for a while and I could see either of them being used as trade bait at some point. So while I think the timeline might be realistic, I also think there's a real chance it'll be with someone else for one of them. Lot to feel good about in the top 10 prospect list: you have high-end talent, guys that have emerged through development, and relatively few with low ceilings. It's going to be exciting if the really young guys advance fairly quickly; always better to be adding guys to the 40-man when they're in AA/AAA rather than having to sort out whether they need to be protected while still in A-ball. Soto is the wildest wild card of the bunch: he's got oodles of talent, but he's also a high school pitcher and we literally haven't seen him throw a professional inning yet.

Sure, but Wallner showed he could dominate at AAA before he got his call-up and even Julien was getting rolling in his first 2 weeks of the season in AAA before coming up the first time. I'm more talking about clearing space for guys in advance of the season anyways, before they'd had a chance to show much. It also makes a difference if you have other options as well. because some of these rookies are going to struggle and even need to get a re-set back in AAA, and then you still have to fill the position in MLB. Catcher is a good example for this right now: if the Twins move Vazquez to create a spot for Camargo...what happens if Jeffers gets hurt and Camargo struggles? Right now our options would be very thin (and yes, we're likely to stash a veteran borderline catcher in AAA before the season starts just in case, but we haven't done it yet). the talent level in AAA is higher than it was 2 years ago, which certainly makes a difference, but the Twins clearly have no interest in getting into a situation where they're running out their 9th choice at OF while trying to stay in contention again. We've got room to move someone like Farmer or Polanco because we have depth in the middle infield (although SS is definitely lean) and Julien has already shown he can handle 2B on a regular basis. But it'd be a lot riskier if we packaged up farmer, Polanco and Julien for pitching and handed 2B to Brooks Lee...

A mixed bag in the AFL for the twins this year. Rosario did pretty well, but the low average will make people (rightfully) nervous. It'll be interesting to see how he does in AA this season. Cossetti struggled at the plate, but still had a solid season overall. not exactly the springboard we were hoping for, but we'll see how he does next season. carr was pretty impressive, nice to see at least one pitcher do well. Sabato...this was a bit of Last Chance to Impress time for him, and i don't know if he did. The HRs were impressive, but his contact problems remain, and are the sort of thing that will only get worse in all likelihood. he will be exposed to the Rule 5 draft...not sure anyone is going to take him, though. a slugging 1B who doesn't make much contact at AA isn't exactly promising for the MLB roster.

That's fair, but when the team is in a competitive cycle like the Twins currently are I'd rather have prospects force their way on to the MLB squad rather than get there on scholarship. Brooks Lee is a heck of a prospect, and I'm very high on him but he hasn't crushed AAA in ways that demand the Twins make room for him immediately...yet. He earned his promotion to AAA for sure. I'm fine with having him keep earning it; I think he's going to have a great year in Saint Paul and be up early if/when we have an injury in the infield. Austin Martin has overcome a lot and has had a bumpy road as a prospect. he earned his promotion to AAA with his AFL performance, and did a good job coming back from injury again. But he really had one great month, so while I'm still thinking he can be a valuable player for the Twins (he profiles wonderfully for this team as a potential 4th OF/super utility player who can get on base, steal bases, play good defense in multiple positions, and have a little pop in his bat) he didn't do so well that the Twins shouldn't still look for a more proven backup CF first. Do I think he can carve out a role some time in 2024? You betcha, but he doesn't need to do it on scholarship. Severino is interesting as a 1B option (switch-hitter with loads of power) but again: I wouldn't move someone out to find him a job in MLB. Camargo is interesting, but the only way to put him in MLB is to move on from Vazquez, and if we do that we have no other catchers ready to step in in case of injury. Right now we'd have to eat part of Vazquez's contract anyways. I'm really excited about our prospects; there's some definite talents moving up through the system, but having depth is good and there's no need to create openings yet.

I don't entirely disagree, but by the time Larnach really got himself back on track, Kepler had also gotten himself back on track and Wallner was getting the job done in the other corner, so there really wasn't a spot for Larnach to play very often let alone every day. I too would have moved on from Gallo sooner, but Gallo barely played in the OF in August when he did play so it's not like he was blocking Larnach at that point. Larnach finished the season really strong but wasn't exactly lighting it up in June-Aug (10 hrs and 9 2Bs total in 3 months, mostly playing in the International League? not exactly the kind of production you need if you're also hitting .225) I thought Larnach didn't have an option left, so if he does I'm happy to keep him on the 40-man and see if his stock can improve and/or he carves out a role on the team. If there's an injury to a corner OF/DH, he looks like the first call if he's performing well in AAA. If there's no space and he's hitting, he can get dealt at the deadline to fill a gap or as part of a package. No reason to make the call on him when his stock is low and there's no need to move him (there's room on the 40-man). The bigger issue is a guy like Nick Gordon, who is also left-handed, also best suited to a corner OF role from a defensive standpoint, had a rough year in 2023, and IS out of options. He's the guy who looks to be the odd-man out and you hope you can move him for something rather than just have to cut him and hope he passes through waivers (which he probably won't; someone will take a chance on him, especially if they're a bad team like the A's were with Rooker). because just like there's no room for Larnach right now in MLB if everyone comes back and everyone is healthy, there's no room for Gordon either.

Miranda and Kirilloff have been bitten by injury. Miranda had a very solid rookie season and this year instead of taking the next step his hurt his shoulder and needed season-ending surgery after not being able to get back through rest and rehab. Kirilloff has performed well when healthy, and struggled when trying to play through injury. Steer & CES (especially CES) were well-regarded prospects that were moved in an attempt to improve pitching. Steer struggled mightily in his first taste of MLB and played very well last season (though him already moving down to 1B is not ideal for his long-term value); CES looks like the hitter we thought he was, but has the problem of not really having a defensive home. Rooker flunked out not only with the Twins, but also the Padres and the Royals, it wasn't until he joined the staggeringly awful A's that he performed well...and even then there's a real question whether he'd replicate that on a semi-competitive team. the only thing that's held Lewis back was injury; he's now locked in at 3B. Wallner has done great in moving to MLB. Julien got rookie of the year votes. not entirely sure what the Twins have done wrong there, other than maybe not giving Wallner more opportunity sooner? Once Larnach started figuring things out in AAA again, there wasn't much opportunity in MLB. Why would you give him ABs over Kepler and Wallner, who were both playing very well? Would I had rather had him than Gallo? Sure, but it still wouldn't have freed up many ABs, especially unless Larnach learned to play 1B in a hurry. I'm fine with moving on from Larnach if we need to, but if he still has an option left I wouldn't send him packing without a good offer, and after last season who knows if we get one? I think the more likely one to get moved might be Gordon from the LH OFs. Gordon doesn't have an option left and without an injury doesn't have a roster spot, unless he's become a heck of a lot better CF than I remember.

This. While it's never good to be reducing payroll, and I'm disappointed in ownership for this, we do have depth in the top of the minor leagues. But from a position player standpoint, all the self-imposed payroll restrictions really do is prevent them from improving substantially at a position like 1B or signing a higher quality backup CF. For the most part we weren't likely going to be in on position players for this team because of the emergence of several young players that need and should play: Julien, Lewis, and Wallner. It doesn't make sense to add a veteran and send any of them back down to AAA: none have anything left to prove there, and all three showed more than enough for the team to be comfortable with them as starting players. Where the payroll reduction hurts is for pitching. While we are in substantially better shape than we were for the rotation 2 years ago, there's a real concern that we're going to be a bit thin on starters for next season. I like Varland, but if he's in the rotation on day 1 then we don't have a lot of depth if/when any of the starters gets dinged up. Paddack did great late in coming back and looks better than he did before the injury, but he might need some time off during the season as he adjusts to pitching every 5th day again. Ryan missed some time in 2023 with the kind of injury that can hit any player. Ober was the healthiest he's ever been and they still slipped him down to AAA for a couple of weeks to try to manage his workload. You just never know with this stuff. I feel good about the Twins from a position player side of things overall, and like the young talent they have on the MLB roster and pushing their way up from AAA. But the self-imposed payroll restrictions are going to hurt the rotation and potential for this club.

He looks like a good add to the 40-man, a player who is on the cusp of finding out whether or not he can play in MLB. I think he makes the most sense as the first man up to play 1B for the Twins next season, rather than getting on the 26-man out the gate. His K-rate is a concern and will be one in MLB once pitchers get a look and some tape on him, because you can really see him becoming someone that chases sliders out of the zone. So he still has some things to work on. Despite that, he still has real talent with the bat, and the ball explodes off of it. Sure, he was only around average in AAA in comparison to the the rest of the hitter-friendly league, but he also played 2/3 of his games at AA last season and dominated there with really stellar numbers. Landing around average as a hitter in his first 30-40 games in AAA isn't too bad in that context. He looks like a nice fit as a depth piece for the franchise right now. Let him keep working on the things he needs to improve on and earn his way up to MLB. No scholarships. Having a switch-hitting power bat in the high minors if/when injuries come a-calling is a good thing.

A comment like this from Falvey makes me think that Miranda's shoulder surgery was more serious than Kirilloff's, and that they don't see him as being any kind of potential platoon partner for AK early in the season. Which would be a bummer, but understandable. Finding a RH 1B who can at least whack around LHP shouldn't be the hardest thing in the world; there's usually a few of those types floating around that don't cost too much. The question is, can you pick out who is going to be the 2021-2022 CJ Cron and not the 2023 version...

The only way I want Bader on this team is if I was convinced that Buxton could play 100 games in CF...and that's just a bet that the team can't really afford to make. (I wish it was different!) As pointed out very clearly here, Bader makes sense as a defensive replacement and platoon bat. If asked to play every day, he looks out of his depth and it's hard to have faith he'd be able to hit RHP at a passable level to fill in at CF for weeks at a time. The need for a strong CF contender is because you simply can't count on Buxton's health until he's had a full season again. Twins were smart to get MAT last year to insure themselves against Buck not being able to play in CF, and Castro's emergence added support as well. I guess I'd be a little too nervous that Buxton is going to miss a month and have a backup that is going to be a zero on offense too often. At that point why not try Martin? If MAT or Kiermaier are going elsewhere/not in the budget, I guess it's not the worst alternative...and keeping depth in place was important for this team in 2023. But we also saw in the Gallo escapades that they tend to be reluctant to cut a veteran loose even if they're not performing. If Bader can't hit his weight, would they move on in June and give Martin a chance or would they keep him hanging around as a zero offensively for 2 extra months?

I'm interested in the starting pitchers like Imanaga and Uwasawa? You can never have too many good starting pitchers and it certainly wouldn't hurt the Twins to have a southpaw starter like Imanaga. $15M per season is market rate for #3/4 starters. If Maeda is a comp for Uwasawa, that certainly doesn't offend my sensibilities. Some interesting players in here, I'd love to know what this FO thinks of the starters for sure. Uwasawa would also let us reference the "Ham Fighters" much more, which is always a bonus. I'm probably less interested in the position players/relievers; I just don't see a lot of room for anyone on the position side right now, and less budget allocation. While I wouldn't mind another more proven option in the bullpen, I do think the Twins have been smart not to hand out sizeable contracts to relievers, most of whom tend to be pretty fungible.

My bigger issue with bringing in someone like Turner is the only way to do it is to trade Farmer or Polanco, because there just isn't a roster spot otherwise, and while moving Farmer opens up some salary and a roster spot, we lose positional flexibility and defense. Moving Polanco will pretty much offset the salary, but it's unclear to me if the move upgrades the offense much (except against LHP) and again, you lose positional flexibility. Right now, the Twins are going to have 13 position players on the 26-man roster. Jeffers, Kirilloff, Julien, Polanco, Correa, Lewis, Buxton, Kepler, Wallner, Vazquez, Castro, and Farmer all have jobs. That's 12, and we still need one more OF, preferably one who can play CF (otherwise we're relying on Castro a lot). Turner is not an OF, so signing him while keeping everyone else means that Kirilloff has to play the OF and the only backup CF is Castro. Maybe trading Polanco for pitching and signing Turner works, but I get nervous about FA moves that rely on a trade as well.

I think this is right. I think the Twins internal options at 1B are pretty solid (Kirilloff's surgery was relatively minor, Miranda's RH bat would be a good fit to take the Solano role if he comes back healthy, and the Twins just added Severino (a switch-hitter) to the 40-man) and unless the Twins deal Polanco or Farmer, there's not a lot of space on the 26-man roster. Julien is also capable of playing 1B if Polanco isn't moved and I'm not sure we'd be doing all that much to improve the lineup by swapping Polanco's bat for Turner's and paying more. It's important to realize that Turner's splits historically have been pretty neutral; last season's destruction of LHP is the aberration not the rule. Maybe he's going to trend that way as he winds down his career...or maybe it was a blip from a relatively small sample size. Now, he's a very good hitter, period, even at this age so he's certainly a reasonable fit. (interesting how he's been so much better in his 30's than his 20's!) I think I would still rather keep Polanco than try and grab Turner (It's hard to see it being possible to have both, both from a roster space and a payroll standpoint).

It's really disappointing to see the early "we're cutting payroll" move from the franchise, because they have the resources and ability to hold the line, even with the TV contract in limbo, and now is exactly the time where they should be holding the line on payroll and trying to give themselves the opportunity to make waves in the playoffs. It's going to bring back all of the old "cheap Pohlads" conversation that's been so tiresome (especially over the last couple of seasons when it hasn't been true, especially when you look at the Twins in comparison to say Cleveland, whose fans would kill to have our level of payroll). Bad look, bad announcement, and very disappointing. We'll see where the final number lands; if it drops all the way down to the $125M range, then there's going to be a lot of scorn heaps upon the front office and the ownership...and they'll deserve every last bit of it. Twins fans packed their playoffs games and made this a loud and difficult place to play, and to revert down to $125M would be a pretty big insult and almost certainly be a signal that ownership wanted to pocket some additional money this season. If they land closer to $140M...it'll still be a little disappointing, but far less egregious. At that level they can address all the team needs and position themselves to be a contender and not fire-sale guys like Farmer, Polanco, and Kepler. I think that's one of the spots to watch: if any of those three get dealt and the return isn't for MLB players or prospects above A-ball...I think we'll have our answer. I actually think Bonnes is wrong about waving good-bye to prospects; I think a big slash to payroll makes it more likely we roll the dice on our high minor league depth. Which based on how our rookies did last year in comparison to our free agent signings, might not be the worst result for Twins fans, even if it is about money. Our most prominent FA signings last season were Vazquez, Gallo, and Solano. While Vazquez may have been good for the pitching staff and defense...he had one of his worst years as a pro. No one here needs to re-litigate Gallo. Solano was easily the best of the 3 and he was also the cheapest and most replaceable. Wallner, Julien, and Lewis on the other hand... All that said: not happy about this at all. hate to see anything that brings back the "typical Twins" cries and "Cheap Pohlads" days.

I think this is the biggest barrier to Solano coming back: there just isn't a roster spot for him if you keep Farmer and/or Polanco (unless you expect Farmer & Castro to be the 4th and 5th OF, which seems unlikely from the Twins). He was solid and did what was asked of him, but a healthy Miranda seems like as good a fit to fill that role and could still be stashed in AAA until needed. It's nice to have the Twins needing to move players with talent and value in order to find a roster spot for a FA signing. That's the problem I want to have...

I don't mind them sending him to see if he can find something down there, especially since he missed a big chunk of time with injuries. He's got very good strike zone recognition, but he doesn't make enough contact. (Comparing him to wallner is a little instructive: Wallner's minor league BA: .274. Sabato? .212. Similar issues when you comp him to Rooker.) Maybe he's just one of those guys who couldn't handle the change to wooden bats? That happens, but I'm guessing it's harder to spot who can handle the switch and who can't...

It's not even a 40-man spot, it's a 26-man spot. You don't get to just put him on the 40-man and then stash him in AAA and hope that he figures it out: if you take him in the Rule 5 you're committing to him on the MLB roster, and as a slugger who struggles to make contact in the minors, he's got very very slim odds of suddenly making it work in MLB. He doesn't play a premium defensive position or add anything there, so he's got little chance of being taken. Position players that get grabbed are ones that can add something defensively even if their bat isn't ready: catchers, SS, CF. Not slow 1B with a contact problem. I'm rooting for sabato, but he's probably not going to make it. Too little production, too many flaws, not enough other areas where he can impact a game. He's not getting on the 40-man, he's not getting picked in the Rule 5, and unless he starts finding something soon in the minors his pro career might be winding down too. Next season he'll be 25 and unless he makes a real step forward he's going to get released instead of promoted.

Injuries have certainly hampered a number of players on the 2020 top 30 list. That's a factor you really can't account for when drafting players and it's hard to put too much blame on the development staff if a player hasn't gotten there because of injury. They've done a pretty good job graduating players to to MLB overall, I'd say even if they haven't necessarily found the all-star quality players in this group (Duran is there, even if he didn't get picked, and Lewis certainly has the quality if he can stay on the field) but there are still others that could get there in time. But they've moved quite a few guys into being contributors at the MLB level with the franchise. I would discount Rooker's "emergence" a little; he finished the season with solid offensive stats, but he's a real negative as a defensive player and sure looks like the definition of a "good stats, bad team" player. Overall the Twins have also done a pretty good job in picking who they've moved on from: Baddoo wouldn't have a role on this team, and I doubt Wade would either. Superficially Rooker looks like a fit as a RH bat but he couldn't stick with either SD or KC last season and had his "big" season on a truly awful team and is a rotten defender. Between injury and awful hitting Rortvedt hasn't been able to stick and carve out a real MLB role. None of the MLB guys that the Twins either moved on from or got Rule 5'd have really come back to haunt them.

A pitching pipeline is more than just drafting and developing prospects, though. It's also about making the deals to pluck a pitcher out of another team's minor league system (a la Joe Ryan) and dealing prospects in a careful way to get MLB talent (Sonny Gray is the good example, Tyler Mahle is the bad one). It's the whole program. We're starting to see some of the prospects emerge.

It's not about the innings, it's the fact that Rice has a history of letting pitchers throw huge numbers of pitches in those outings. There's a real history at the school of junking players arms by not managing their workloads and letting a guy chuck 100-120 pitches at age 20 I wonder if Canterino might be able to go on the Johan Plan and shift to the bullpen as he works his way back from injury and be a weapon for 2 inning stints in the bullpen for a year or two while they work to build up strength and give him time and game experience and some healthy seasons before shifting him back into the rotation? You would think it would be possible. He's got the stuff to pitch in the majors to be sure.

It's kind of hard not to get excited about the massive upside of Jenkins, and so far he's been proving it. I'm still a big fan of Lee, but Jenkins does have a higher ceiling. Keaschall is pretty interesting and rising in my mind. he had zero problems moving into low A after basically getting an orientation to pro baseball in rookie ball and then got a quick promotion to high A where he had no problems in his short stint there either. He looks like someone who starts in High A in 2024 with an eye towards another early promotion to AA. Sure looks like he has the bat to impress. Looking forward to seeing how his power progresses and defense holds up. Kala'i Rosario is definitely a guy to watch as well. The ball explodes off his bat and if he can make enough contact he's going to be a dangerous hitter. He had a great year in Cedar Rapids, he's started punishing the ball in the AFL, and looks very ready for AAA at 21. twins have some fun prospects to watch, for sure.

I think monitoring the health status of Kirilloff and Buxton (and Miranda) as they recover and rehab from surgery is going to be a major factor in the decision-making in both trades and free agency, and frankly should be. Though regardless of how well Buxton looks to be doing and maybe they have solved his knee inflammation issue with this cleanup procedure, they will most certainly need to make a fairly significant decision to ensure they have CF well backed up. Do they have internal options? yes, in that Castro has shown he can field the position increasingly well and Austin Martin is also capable. But Martin is unproven at the plate and has an injury history of his own, so there is risk in managing this internally. That said, letting the rookies play worked out pretty well for the Twins with Julien, Lewis, and Wallner. The trade issue is a very interesting one, because unless they decide to move either Polanco or Farmer, there's really only one roster spot on the MLB club and that one would have to go to an OF. It's simply ridiculous to push Wallner or Julien or Lewis back down to AAA, so unless they move one of those other guys (or Kepler, but I've given up on Kepler going anywhere, and after the second half of the season he doesn't look like a guy you'd want to move on from...and they're much less overstocked on LH OFs than they used to be, for now) there simply isn't a lot of room on the position side, unless they become convinced that one of their recovery guys isn't going to be ready to go at the start of the year. If there's an early move, I would expect it to be on the pitching end of things, but we'll have to see. I suspect it may take a little while to see where the market shakes out on Gray and Maeda. I suspect Pagan moves along as being a little too spendy for the bullpen. Will they spend some money there? It seems out of character (and TBH I don't disagree with their general policy of not handing out 3-4 year deals to fungible relievers at $5-10M per like some teams do) but at the same time there are some holes and not a ton of obvious internal candidates.