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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    That would be unbelievable. (especially if he's healthier) Larry Walker was a ridiculously great player and a worthy Hall of Famer. I get that comps like this are projecting out to a maximum ceiling, but it sure is fun to think about our own version of Larry freakin' Walker out there. (seriously, that guy was crazy, crazy good)
  2. jmlease1
    So far last year's draft is coming along nicely! Now, they did focus on college players in that draft (first 13 picks were all college guys) and I would expect those to have a greater chance of initial success in pro ball, due to their greater experience and development than a HS kid...but it's still an impressive hit rate so far.
  3. jmlease1
    That's an interesting statement; they seem to be saying that they don't like Soto that much because his stuff doesn't work up in the zone which is where modern analytics are telling pitchers to go...but one of the things a progressive team is also thinking about is not needing to have every pitcher be the same guy. On Keaschall that kinda reads like they don't have a great reason to downgrade him but want to anyways, so they're picking "competition". By that measure, every HS player should probably get a ding? I'm not really sure why they were surprised by these picks: none of them are a reach, all of them have some standout abilities on them...did they just expect the twins to take a chunky college slugger in all their mocks?
  4. jmlease1
    there are 4 college pitchers on KLaw's top 10 "best available" list, and it would be great if one of them slipped to the Twins today. (I'm personally less enthusiastic about the HS shortstops sitting out there on that same list, but YMMV) I think we'll see the Twins take some college pitchers from smaller college programs again, and I'm fine with that.
  5. jmlease1
    Blew it? Feels a little harsh. And if Carrigg doesn't stick at catcher (and notably, his primary position this spring was CF) then what is he? KLaw had him all the way down at 70 on his big board because he doesn't make hard contact and expands the zone too much (and as a result doesn't get on base enough). If he's the 2nd best college catcher, why didn't he play there for SDSU this spring? Keaschall has the speed for CF, so if he doesn't stick on the dirt he's got another position when he can add value on defense. I just don't think you can try and draft for need and be successful in the MLB draft, unless the players are pretty close in terms of overall evaluation; then it makes sense as a tie-breaker, but right now it doesn't look like Carrigg is seen by many evaluators as a serious catching prospect and there's some real questions about his hit tool in comparison to other guys who were drafted ahead of him.
  6. jmlease1
    Looks like a good pick. The velocity is impressive, and it sounds like he has 2 off-speed pitches to refine already; I'll admit I'm always a little biased toward pitchers that have a change-up. Lot of HS pitchers don't really have all that much in that area: they can overwhelm kids with the velocity and then any kind of off-speed pitch, even if it's not really all that great still looks like it's falling off a table. So it's good to hear that he's got two in the arsenal that are already developing and he won't have to create one from scratch. It'll be interesting to see what the team can do with him to refine his command and control early? he's likely to get stronger working as a professional, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the velocity tick up a bit more, so if he can find the zone consistently he could do very well.
  7. jmlease1
    Hopefully he gets signed quickly, passes all the medicals and can jump into some rookie ball games in the complex league immediately and the teams can really get to work with him. Assuming reasonable health and so forth, I think it's likely he starts next season in Ft. Myers at Low-A and from there his advancement will be driven by his performance and development.
  8. jmlease1
    I do find it funny how several of the national prognosticators & evaluators were very sure that the Twins weren't going to take a HS player with their first pick because of their "clear preference" for college bats and were going to go off-script, blah blah blah overreachingcakes.
  9. jmlease1
    Nice tribute to Mike Radcliff, classy move by the Twins there. Nice group of Day 1 picks, should be fun to watch them develop. Glad the Twins didn't try to get too cute with their first pick and took one of the consensus top 5 guys. I get the strategy of picking guys based on slot number and using some early savings to get more highly rated talent later (and it's seemed to work for the Twins before), but there's also real advantage to getting one of the consensus 5 best players in a draft.
  10. jmlease1
    It would be great. I definitely had him in "bust" category going into this season, but maybe he's salvaging it.
  11. jmlease1
    I think it's kind of amazing that midway through Brooks Lee's first full season in professional baseball you've already decided the Twins blew it and his ceiling is only as a backup infielder/utility guy. He's the youngest player on the Wichita roster, he's barely played a hundred games in pro ball, and he's having a solid season in AA after hardly spending any time in A-ball. Maybe we could give him at least one full season in AA before deciding he won't be a star hitter.
  12. jmlease1
    It's all part of the package, and I think I do get to complain about it. It's not about whether it cost the game or the mistakes even out: it's about getting it right and getting obvious calls wrong is bad for baseball, especially when there are solutions to fix it that won't slow down the game. Gray might have walked in the run anyways, but we'll never know because the ump made a terrible call. He called an obvious strike a ball, and literally everyone knew it. But the only way we're going to see baseball (which is still the slowest to change of any of the major professional team sports) do anything about it it is to keep pointing it out and complain about it.
  13. jmlease1
    Odd game. All the O's hits were in one inning, and it's not like they were bashing them off the walls. Julien missed a play that he probably should have made. Ump makes one of the most inexplicable ball 4 calls I've seen this side of Phil Cuzzi. Frustrating. If you'd told me before the game that the Twins were going to out-hit the O's and lose by 4 runs, that the O's would have zero extra base hits and the Twins would have 5, my response would have been what in the holy hell happened in the game?!? And I was there today, and I still only kinda understand it. But you know what? Today was still a lovely day to be at the ol' ballpark.
  14. jmlease1
    Frankly, I just wish their broadcasts were better. the production values are quality, but the announcing team is mediocre and superficial.
  15. jmlease1
    The injury combined with the lost pandemic year really hurt Enlow, and makes it hard to evaluate where he really is right now. He's probably having some adjustment challenges to the new level, so let's see where he lands at the end of the season. If he finishes the year healthy and has some good starts to show his ability I think he'll get a lot of consideration going forward. If he can keep the walks under control I think he'll be fine. Schobel is definitely on a roll after a bit of a slow start: 4 XBH in April, 7 in May, 10 in June, and 3 already in July. Good to see he can be more than just a slap hitter. Same kind of progression on BBs: 5 in April, with 11 each in June & July. Multi-hit games: only 3 in April, but 7 in May, 8 in June (and that includes three 3 hit games and a 4 hit game), so it really looks like all the pieces are coming together at the plate for Schobel. He's even brought his Ks down every month. We're seeing a lot of early value emerging form the 2022 draft: Lee & Schobel, Morris, Jones, Lewis, Matthews (all interesting pitchers), Cossetti is doing well...Prielipp looks like he needs more time and rehab, but there's oodles of talent in his arm and he's the only guy who hasn't really performed yet. ben Ross has been solid, Jorel Ortega pasted low-A so hard he got a quick promotion. Could end up being a really deep draft, which is always exciting.
  16. jmlease1
    Seems like a zero chance he slips to 5, but I'd take him in a heartbeat if he's there. He doesn't have 2 above average pitches, he has 2 PLUS pitches in that fastball and slider. The changeup is useable now, if it becomes average to above average then he could be ridiculous (and changeups frequently take a little time to develop, so it's not surprising his isn't great yet). Terrific prospect. No chance he's here at 5, but I would enjoy seeing Twins execs stampeding to the podium to draft him if someone else screwed up (possibly trampling Manfred in the process).
  17. jmlease1
    This. It's the biggest difference between the MLB draft and the NBA/NFL drafts. there's almost always 2-4 years of development time even for top picks. Joe Mauer is one of the greatest prospects in Twins history and he still spent 280 games in the minors before debuting at age 21. Jenkins looks like a great prospect (I think I like Max Clark better of the two HS kids, but I'm basing this on my opinion of the aggregation of public evaluations of others, so...wtf do I really know?) but he's likely to need 3-4 years before he gets serious consideration for the MLB club. By then, who knows what the OF looks like? We might be clamoring for a LH platoon bat to pair with Kala'i Rosario in RF by then. there still seems to be a consensus top 5 and Jenkins is in there, so I'm good with picking him at #5 if he's there.
  18. jmlease1
    I think the 1970 staff is an interesting comp for this year's crew. (Hopefully the 2023 group finishes as well as they've started!) But what's interesting is how good the 1970 bullpen was with Perranowski, Williams, and Tom Hall in a swing role. (Boswell completely fell apart in '70, and was out of the league by '72 which is a real shame). the starters in '70 have a better pedigree than '23, but so far today's rotation has been more effective behind Gray, Ryan, Ober and Lopez. Ryan's ERA+ of 127 is higher than any of the the '70 regulars (just edging out Perry, who won the Cy...and probably shouldn't have) but it's only 3rd today, behind Gray and Ober. But this year's staff will need Thielbar and Stewart to get healthy and keep performing or someone else to really step up to match the '70 bullpen. I do think the 2004 Twins pitching staff is a little underrated: Johan was awesome, Radke was very very good, Silva was solid and chewed up a million innings, and the bullpen had the law firm of Nathan, Rincon, and Romero handing out indictments to every hitter who came up late...
  19. jmlease1
    Clark seems fine? Lot of talent, lot of development that will need to happen. He won't be going to AA immediately with an ETA of arrival in MLB in 2025, so some patience will be required. (although that would be amazing if he starts off in Ft. Myers and just kills it) The tools are there. I'm not afraid of taking a HS player with a top 5 pick; I get nervous about players projected as being a reach. Haven't seen any of that on Clark. Right now I want them to take the best player available, because I'm hoping they don't have another year where they get access to the top 5 in a while.
  20. jmlease1
    Yeah, nice outing from Nowlin, but he definitely has some things to work on. WHIP isn't the end-all, be-all for pitching stats, but it does tell a few things and they haven't been good for Nowlin. Right now he looks like a pitcher who is struggling to consistently command his pitches, walks a fair number of guys, and then gives up hits when he tries to get over on a guy with a pitch well in the zone. a 1.4 WHIP just isn't going to get it done. be interesting to see if he can build on this very successful start. Salas had a really really slow start to the season. Hopefully that was more about adjustment period and he's starting to get on a roll. Big talent, but it's been rough so far. Good to see him have a better run.
  21. jmlease1
    Lopez was brilliant. Really fun to watch, he was pitching so well. With a nice lead and no more starts before the all-star break it made total sense to let him go for the shutout, especially after a pretty quick 8th. Didn't expect him to get through the 9th that quickly, lol! (Phil Cuzzi certainly helped him out a few times in another classic Cuzzi performance. KC got a few calls from him too, but the weight was definitely on the Twins side this time. Another game to put in the "we need the electronic strike zone" ledger) I've taken some shots at Kepler for his declining defense this season (and the stats back it up), so of course he makes multiple fine plays today. Maybe we should spend the week mocking his baserunning or something, see if that ticks up. Would have been nice to see a few more hits, but battling for 6 walks makes up the difference just fine. Buxton and Correa both drew a couple of impressive ones after falling behind in the count and that's usually a good sign. Jeffers is doing a very nice job this season, and it's great to see consistent offense from him, especially with Vazquez not hitting anything. This is why the Twins had zero interest on moving on from Jeffers: he's a good catcher. Sweep! I love a sweep.
  22. jmlease1
    Why are people so down on Kepler and ready to move on? because since his breakout year in 2019, he's been worse on offense every single full season since. (he's been really good lately, but still below league average for the season, so we'll see where this lands) he no longer plays any CF, which lessens his value, and his defense has often appeared to have slipped (he was pretty good last year, but the numbers this season look less than great, and he didn't perform particularly well in 2021). He's gotten dinged with injuries in 2021, 2022, and again this season. He's gotten increasingly frustrating as a player since his big year, and while it may be completely unfair to expect him to have another performance like that juiced-ball year, it's not unfair to wonder why we invest so much money and playing time in a corner OF who isn't much of an offensive player. Kepler has been a regular for 8 seasons (including this one) and been an above average hitter exactly twice (one year was the juice ball, the other year was the pandemic shortened season). Kepler isn't a bad guy or even a bad player...but should he be a starter? He's on pace for less than 2 bWAR this year and even with a hot few weeks is still below league average as a hitter. this team needs more offense, and we have hitting prospects in the minors that have little left to prove there.
  23. jmlease1
    River Town playing for the River Bandits is simply delightful. Yay, for Austin Martin being in the lineup. (It's a bit of a bummer to be so happy for someone to just be healthy enough to play, but I still believe in Martin's talent and really hope he's healthy the rest of the year and finishes strong) Zebby Matthews is one of those pitching prospects I'm still not sure how to rate: he destroyed low A hitters, but has wobbled a bit at high A. Is it better competition showing him up or did he just need time to adjust? It'll be interesting to see if this game is more of a blip or an indicator of him settling in. Only giving up 3 hits is a major improvement on where he's been since promotion, so hopefully he's made some adjustments and can start rolling again.
  24. jmlease1
    I think a lot of teams have handled veterans coming back from injury the same way, though. There's frequently deference to the veteran player (especially position players) in coming back from an injury on whether they go out on a rehab assignment. I also wonder if there's any rules about it in the CBA? For the Twins it's going to be easier to convince a guy to go down on a rehab assignment when they can just slide over to Saint Paul for a week, another potential advantage to having their AAA affiliate on the opposite end of a light rail line. This is one of those clubhouse management aspects. Easy for us to say "Go down to the minors for a week or two and get your timing back", but some of the veterans might easily respond with "I'm a professional, I'm ready to go, I don't need that, stop wasting my time." How you manage your way through those potential conflicts will matter.
  25. jmlease1
    I'm glad this is settled for the season. Can't say enough bad things about Sinclair and everything they do: they're the worst. And as per usual, in a battle between billion dollar businesses it's the regular people that suffer, with struggles to access the games they love, escalating prices, and more. It will be very interesting to see how this all shakes out with the RSNs. For a lot of people, live sports is the only thing keeping people tethered to cable, especially when most/all of their local teams are on a single network. I'm not a particular fan of the FSN/Bally's network (a lot of that is related more to the shoddy ownership than the on-air talent and production), but it's very convenient to have the Twins/Wolves/Wild all in one place. I'm unenthusiastic about potentially needing to ensure multiple channels/streamers/options to watch MN sports. Good news for the Twins, acceptable news for the fans for the 2023 Twins season. Lots of questions to be answered.
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