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Bailey Ober takes the bump as the Twins try to halt the losing streak. Come join the discussion! ×
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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Gray was very effective but not cruising. He was also at 94 pitches, not 91 if that makes a difference. He did a really good job but it wasn't easy for him to finish off a lot of those guys, and he definitely got the occasional "strike" that was out of the zone, which gets dangerous later in the game if you don't keep getting them. Think it's a coin flip whether you let him try and finish the 6th, but considering Happ had already gotten Gray twice I can understand not liking the matchup. The offense is the real problem, though. They've got to get more hits, they've got to put more baserunners on. Disappointing from Buxton who just couldn't seem to adjust to Smyly's stuff; he wasn't off by much, but those towering pop-ups were frustrating. The bullpen wasn't great, but I'm not going to bark about them not holding the lead when the offense only puts 2 on the board and looks very toothless all day.
  2. jmlease1
    That describes Mahle. Who else? Dyson? We bought damaged goods there, but there was no history of it. (Paddack, Pagan, Maeda, and P.Lopez were acquired in the offseason. Pineda had injury issues but was signed as a free agent. Jorge Lopez wasn't injury-prone. Happ was signed in the offseason and had no recent history of real health problems. Romo didn't have injury problems. Ryan had no injury problems) This team hasn't made a lot of moves for pitching around the deadline, and there's little to suggest they've got a pattern of going for injury-prone pitchers at the deadline.
  3. jmlease1
    I'm just happy to have Royce back out on the field. Hope he's feeling good. Hope Emmanuel Rodriguez is starting to settle in. He's a really interesting prospect. feels like he's still adjusting to a new level coming off the injury, because holy cow is he whiffing a ton. Hoping he stays healthy and in the lineup for the next month or so and we can really see where he's at, because he has a ton of talent.
  4. jmlease1
    I dunno. Steer doesn't look like he has that much of a ceiling to me. He's playing ok right now, but he's looking like a below average hitter and average defender, and would be behind Miranda, Julien, Lewis, Martin, and Lee in the infield prospect pecking order. Hajjar may or may not ever be anything; he's only got 52 innings of pro baseball so far, none above A ball and hasn't pitched this season because of injury. (and has already been dealt a second time) CES was the best prospect of the bunch, and might have a special bat...but as much as he's torn up AAA so far, it's only been 16 games (he's already missed almost 20 games this year?) and he's a butcher in the field. It was a risk that didn't turn out, but at least the process made sense. This wasn't dumping our only catching prospect for a mediocre reliever or a massive overpay. It's a miss on the front office's ledger for sure, but at least it's one that was a calculated risk with upside to the play. regarding the "we could have had Castillo for basically the same amount!" comment: No, we couldn't. Marte was a consensus top-20 prospect; we would have needed to put Royce Lewis in the deal to get Castillo and still have Hajjar and at least Steer or CES to get that deal done. None of the guys we had in the Mahle trade were near Marte's rating at the time, and Arroyo was well thought of as well (a consensus top 100 prospect going into this season) and Moore is pretty even with Hajjar.
  5. jmlease1
    right about where he should be. wOBA: .356 xwOBA: .361 He's crushing the ball when he makes contact (exit velocity is in the top 2% of the league), his hard hit % is the top 1% of the league. and he misses a lot: bottom 1% in the league in xBA and bottom 5% in K rate. Draws his walks. Might not be the most aesthetically pleasing player in baseball, but he's adding pretty good value for the Twins. (The fact that he's a plus defender in the OF and quality at 1B makes the Ks a lot easier to swallow for me) He hasn't been particularly lucky or unlucky this season, he's just looking like Joey Gallo.
  6. jmlease1
    Any series win is a good win, but taking two of three against a pretty good Padres teams feels even better. they're doing a very fine job of defending home territory this season. Still some issues to work on with the offense, but the rotation will keep us in every game. Ober was good enough today to get the job done. I was a little underwhelmed with the Farmer acquisition at the time, but that was also when it looked like he might be our starting SS. He's definitely a tough guy who plays hard and his ability to slot in easily at so many positions is excellent. Really impressed that after getting hit again he came back with a Big Fly. (FYI, the "What's Next" has the days wrong for the Cubs series)
  7. jmlease1
    It's a shame. I think the Twins were willing to take the risk on the shoulder because there hadn't been signs of real structural issues, plus they were trading from areas of strength. Until this year, to my knowledge, there wasn't any indicators of a elbow problem; doubtful they would have made anywhere near the same kind of investment in prospects if that was on the table. I thought it was a fair trade at the time (you have to give to get) and Mahle could have stabilized the rotation last season and positioned the Twins well for this year. CES was the only prospect I was really missing from whom we sent over (while Steer is playing for Cincy, I think his upside is limited. CES is a butcher on defense basically everywhere, but the bat might be special. Hajjar was interesting, but hasn't even pitched this season). Reasonable risk, especially considering where the Twins were in the standings and the needs in the rotation, but it didn't pan out. I'd be willing to consider a "rehab contract" for Mahle, but let's see where the 40-man shakes out. Is saving him for a last 2024 return/2025 option going to be worth it? It really depends on how many guys we need to protect next year, I think and who knows where we'll be by then. We do have some guys that are for sure moving off the roster this off-season: Castro, Solano, Gray (seems likely), Maeda (seems likely), Garlick, maybe Kepler or Polanco, possibly Gallo depending on how the year goes, or guys like Pagan, Henriquez, or maybe Celestino...but there will also be prospects that need to be protected too. You can never have too many starting pitchers, but Mahle's not an option that can be counted on.
  8. jmlease1
    Yeah, I'll be interested to see where this goes. I don't have a good feel for how much room we have to maneuver on the 40-man for 2024 right now. I wouldn't be opposed to a "rehab extention" if we're not too sqeezed on the 40-man in the offseason?
  9. jmlease1
    Tough beat. Probably good to make the call now and get it over with I guess? As much as it makes sense to try and avoid surgery whenever possible, it would be even worse for him if he tried to rest and rehab it for a couple of months and then still had to have the TJ anyways. Bummer. I liked Mahle and thought he could have been a difference-maker.
  10. jmlease1
    Vazquez is having a rotten month at the plate and really looks bad right now.
  11. jmlease1
    I'm going to be very interested to see if Cossetti can legit stick at catcher. It would be very nice to have someone with his hit tool moving up through the system at that position.
  12. jmlease1
    Same. I am a huge fan of his bat, and if his wrist problems are finally behind him he could be a monster in this lineup. He looks pretty good defensively at 1B, even if he couldn't quite make that pick on the 2 hop throw from Correa last night (which would have been an outstanding play, really). When his wrist hasn't been barking at him, he's smashed line drives; when it's been hurting him the power vanishes, so that definitely an area I'll be watching for. I hope he's finally right and the xbh start piling up.
  13. jmlease1
    Meh. Correa missed a HR on that ball by about 3 inches. No, he didn't run hard out of the box, but presuming that he could have gotten a triple is kinda silly: Correa isn't particularly fast. He's not Buxton, and even if he'd run hard out of the box he probably just has a stand-up double, and he would have gotten buried for it if he'd tried to stretch the double into a triple. Lopez did a nice job holding down a really tough lineup on a night where he was fighting his command. Soto, Tatis, Bogaerts, and Machado is a tough group even they've been having some of the same problems scoring runs that the Twins have. A little disappointing to see the bullpen struggle to hold the lead again, but the offense needs to provide a bigger margin to work with. It did look like they were taking better ABs last night. (except for Vazquez, who is in a dreadful slump. Time to give Jeffers some more ABs?) Nice to see Solano come through, always interesting to see a guy step up when the groundswell starts up to have them replaced. Hope he can keep it up, but he's definitely just a bench bat now. defense was pretty good last night, nice to see them tighten it up after some sloppy outings. believe there was a closed door meeting, I'm guessing the sloppy play, bad approaches at the plate, and lack of focus were the topic.
  14. jmlease1
    I think if he could finish the season throwing deep into games and re-establishing himself as a potential rotation piece for 2024, it would be a great result for him. Would be wonderful if he continues to settle in and position himself to debut sometime this season, even if it's just for a cup of coffee to get his feet wet (and maybe one or three more metaphors...)
  15. jmlease1
    He's looked worse at the plate lately, suggesting that he's pressing and maybe dropping him down would help. There's definitely some data to suggest that he's been pretty unlucky so far (looking at his profile on Baseball savant is instructive) but at the same time the quality of his ABs has looked worse the last few games.
  16. jmlease1
    The total lack of any power from Solano is also worrisome. He just doesn't look like he's adding anything right now, and I'd hate for them to keep giving him chance to work out of it simply because he's a veteran that they gave $2M to. Give Helman a shot until Lewis is ready; Helman is 27 so it's not like we're stunting his development by not playing him every day and he can slide in at a bunch of spots with his RH bat. Maybe he can give them a spark. Gallo has pretty even splits over his career anyways and can still move back to 1B on days they give Kirilloff the day off. He was a reasonable insurance policy when Kirilloff wasn't ready to start the season, but Alex is back and Solano looks awful. Feels like it's time to move on.
  17. jmlease1
    Really about the only thing this team doesn't have a lot of depth in right now is guys who can play SS/3B effectively. (Solano seems to be cooked at 3B, Gordon has basically never played the spot and might not really have the arm for it anyways, so that leaves farmer and castro who are also the only real options at SS behind Correa...and I don't love Castro there either) Really don't want Polanco back at SS even in an emergency if we can avoid it. The last week has been pretty rough in terms of hits. Buxton's struggling, Polanco's power has vanished, Gallo is in a big rut, Vazquez has been dreadful, Correa is a mess...lot of bats we are counting on going silent all at once.
  18. jmlease1
    Agreed. He's got a lot of talent and right now he's clearly fighting it. there's no need for him to dig himself deeper in the hole. Let him get a little rest, clear his mind, and rebuild his approach at the plate. he'll be back.
  19. jmlease1
    Helman is really interesting. I think I'd be up for giving him a shot on the MLB roster once Farmer is back (we'd be awfully thin at SS if Castro goes down and Farmer isn't on the team). Unusual for a guy to break out at 27, but it can happen, and it's not like Castro is offering much other than flexibility at this point. The utter lack of pop in Solano's bat so far and his generally poor defense makes him a reasonable candidate to move on from, but this club seems to struggle with sunk costs sometimes. Julien is rolling at AAA to be sure.
  20. jmlease1
    Varland did the job last night, which was good. Wacha was what I feared: threw a lot of slop, got a lot of extra strikes, and a lot of hitters did little to punish him. Really disappointed in where Correa is right now. He's got to turn it around soon. he's way too talented to hit this poorly, but very much looks like a guy who is pressing on every AB. he's taking pitches he should be driving, and swinging through fastballs. Thankfully he's not taking it out into the field with him, but he needs to do better. he's earning the boos. Alcala looks pretty unreliable right now, not that it matters when your team can't hit. The "3 errors in one inning" was shambolic, even if Kirilloff's gets changed today. I also cannot wait for electronic strike zone. castro getting rung up on a pitch nowhere near the zone was abysmal. I'm sick of the inconsistency, I'm sick of the obvious errors, and it's got to stop.
  21. jmlease1
    it's a pretty cheap deal: $2.5M for next season and $7.5M for 2025. relatively low risk for the Twins.
  22. jmlease1
    Exactly. I went and checked to see if my memory was right on Wacha and while he doesn't have an amazing ERA against us (4.13), his WHIP against us is his 2nd best against any club he's ever faced. It's only 5 games total, so not particularly meaningful...just the sort of thing that makes me twitchy. Hope we go the other way on him and send him packing early this series.
  23. jmlease1
    I think the Twins win this series, but it could easily go the other way. SD has some high-end talent on their roster, but they're definitely a little thin once you go past the top guys. I'd feel better about the pitching matchups if Wacha wasn't the sort of guy that seems to inexplicably do well against us? I think the pitching keeps us in the game, so will the offense find its way? I'm excited to have Kirilloff back, and amazed that Kyle Farmer is close to being ready. Goodness me, that was a nasty beaning he took, so I'm pretty dang impressed that he's already been back in action in AAA. Tough fella.
  24. jmlease1
    That's certainly fair. I do think he's a reasonable veteran choice to be competing for the 5th spot in the rotation for '24/'25 though, at a pretty reasonable price, and he was solid enough for the back end of the rotation before his elbow exploded last year. As a bridge option while others advance in the lower minors, he seems a fair pick?
  25. jmlease1
    I think the Twins 98% offer Gray the QO, but I'm pretty sure that he'll decline it unless he suffers a major injury (in which case the Twins probably don't have it on the table). With his track record and the way he's pitching so far this season, I find it unlikely someone won't offer Gray 3 years and $20M+ AAV. Twins would be thrilled if he takes the QO, but I don't think they'll be too upset if they get back a compensatory pick at the end of the 1st round. That's pretty good business for Chase Petty: 2 years of Sonny Gray and a pick for a teenage pitcher who hasn't thrown an inning yet in 2023? After SWR it definitely gets thinner on the developmental list, which is almost certainly why they extended Paddack like they did. Headrick is a possibility, and then we're looking at guys who aren't out of AA yet. (Laweryson, Winder, and Balazovic are starting to look like bullpen options, although Balazovic could still move back over to the rotation) But on the good side, a rotation of Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Varland, and Paddack is also a rotation without a single player over the age of 30. I agree that part varland's task this season is to keep the ball in the park, but he also just needs to be less hittable generally. he's done a great job growing his K-rate, and where he sits on his walks is sustainable...but you probably can't survive for long giving up a hit per inning. That's one of the things that's really impressed with Ober. He's not hunting Ks at the same rate as some other guys, but he's also been tougher to hit. Gives him a little more room to maneuver if he's fighting his command during a start.
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