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Pitching

Pen Options

I figured with spring training starting and all of the pitcher signings, someone should list all of our potential bullpen candidates going into spring training and lets see how we think the pen will do.  One thing I can say is we definitely have options and depth for this season.  Which relievers do you see making an impact for the club this year? And who would you take north at this point?  Twins Bullpen 2026 Rogers Sands Topa Funderburk Orze Banda Festa
Brandon

Brandon in Pitching

11
offseason

New Found Revenue!

No one seems to be talking about this so I thought I would post it here.  The Pohlad's said they paid off the debt from the new investors investing in the team.  How much were the payments on that debt that the Twins are no longer paying.  Let's look at some possibilities.  First the amount of the debt.  I understand the debt to be in the neighborhood of 425 million.   what is the interest on that debt and is it interest only or fully amortizing? let's look at 5%, 8% 10% and 12%.  on i
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Brandon in offseason

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Pitching

Dobnak's value, What does he need to do to justify this season's 3 million salary?

Dobnak is set to earn 3 million in salary this season.  He has value in that if he is sent to the minors, it's doubtful someone would claim his contract.  He can be optioned for a fresh arm and brought back up again later in the season.  There is value in that.  as a reliever and maybe a spot start here or there, I am guessing he is the bulk reliever for multi-inning assignments.  I wouldn't be surprised if he is pitching well for the Twins that he would get a spot start or two.  So what would a
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Brandon in Pitching

7
offense

Elite offense and Health and / or deep lineup conundrum

The Twins have a knack for developing pretty deep lineups 1-9 in terms of how the bottom third of our lineups typically stack up way better than the rest of the league at these spots.  That and a deep productive bench is how we have managed to stay above average on offense for the last few years.  This season, however, there is a potential wrench in this deal.  Our new 1B is in a 2-year slump and could play himself off the roster before the season begins and Julien had an awful sophomore slump s
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Brandon in offense

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offseason

Trade Idea Framework .... Help even it out....

Here is a trade Idea How about trading Vazquez and Paddack and a prospect to the Brewers for Rhys Hoskins and 5-7 million to help lower payroll.  There is a savings of 10 and 7.5 million in the two players and with cash back the Twins save money net after taking on Hoskins 18 million The Brewers get a back up C, and back end starter but we would likely need to send a prospect or two to even things out but what do you think.  is there a potential deal here or is a back up C and starting pitcher a
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Brandon in offseason

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Relief Pitching

A Different View Shows Theilbar's Season as More OK than Awful

Relievers are a different then starters so judging a reliever by just his ERA doesn’t tell the whole story.  So lets look at Theilbar and see if he has been successful for the season or not so far.  We are going to start by going through game logs and comparing to a reliever with a similar ERA and another who is getting the job done and make notes. As of the All-Star break Theilbar has pitched in 31 games with 22.1 innings and given up 14 earned runs for a 5.64 ERA.  In his 31 games he has
Brandon

Brandon in Relief Pitching

11
offseason

My offseason review to this point of the offseason

The Twins came into the offseason with very few needs as a whole.  They were set to lose Gray and Maeda and Mahle to free agency.  This was planned in advance with Lopez extension and the return of Paddack with his extension and the development of Varland.  To get into the season the Twins felt that they needed at least 1 depth starter to make it to at least the trade deadline where they could trade for the pitcher, they need for the post season run.  That is how I view what has happened so far
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Brandon in offseason

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Pitching

The Pre-Offseason Move that helps sets up the rotation for years to come.

This offseason there is little heavy lifting to do to improve our team.  The main move needed is to find a starting pitcher who can come somewhat close to replacing what Sonny Gray provided the Twins last season.  beyond that we are looking for a backup CF and keep in mind we have several available in-house options too like Castro, Gordon, and Austin Martin.  and either an upgrade at 1B or someone who can add to it.  Keep in mind we have a supposedly now healthy Killeroff and Miranda who both de
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Brandon in Pitching

17
Trade stuff

Seattle wants Polanco

Seattle just traded their 3B to AZ for a back up C and pitching prospect.  They were looking for a second base upgrade before but this makes it even more important for them to trade a starting Pitcher to Minnesota for a package around Polanco.  The pitcher acquired may not replace the starter we acquire but will help give them more depth.   https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/dbacks-trade-seby-zavala-mariners-catcher.html A deal with trader Dipoto in Seattle will get done.
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Brandon in Trade stuff

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Pitching

The Other Guys

On our pitching staff we have a rock solid starting 5 or even 6 if you count Mahle.  (Lopez, Gray, Ryan, Ober, and Meada) In the pen we have Duran, Jax, Pagan, and Thielbar and then we have the other guys.  Who are the other guys?  They are the depth starters and relievers used to round out the staff.  The other guys include:  Varland, Winder, Keuchel, Headrick, Balazovic, Sands, Brock, Deleon, Ortega and Funderburk.  These guys combined to make 17 starts and pitch 283.33 innings givin
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Brandon in Pitching

2
Draft Grading

Are We Getting Enough Talent From our Drafts during Falvey's Tenure?

Andy MacPhail, a former Twins GM who helped construct the 87 and 91 World Series Teams once said his goal was to promote 2-3 players per season up to the majors to fill roles on the team.  A good farm system can do that.  So, with that in mind let’s review the previous drafts in the Falvey era, not to grade them but to see how Falvey. Levine and company are doing in developing 2-3 starters/ regulars (or really players who can stay on the roster all year including bench and relievers) a year. Bel
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Brandon in Draft Grading

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average

Batting Average is important. Who knew?

I was looking at individual players on the team when I noticed a trend.  Correa who is having a terrible year by our standards is actually walking and hitting the same power numbers as years past.  but his batting average is way down.  last season he hit .291 This year he is at .217 and his average has been climbing.  If Correa was hitting closer to his career norms, say .270 what would his OPS be?  It would be over .800 So I looked at the next punching bag.  Gallo.  He is also having a goo
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Brandon in average

23
Line Up Construction

Optimizing the Line Up with What We Already Have on the Team.

Our lineup clearly has issues this season and we have players who succeed at inconsistent intervals.  But if you look at our players and bench and prospects you will find a lineup full of players with over a 100 OPS+ stats.  That means they are above average hitting.  And if we field a lineup of above average hitting players we might score more consistently and more often resulting in more wins.  Here is one way I see we can optimize our lineup and put our best foot forward based on various stat
500 HRs

500 HRs

Looking back on the 2009 International Signing Period, We signed 3 really good productive players who are all still with the Twins today.  While that may change soon.  Here is some fun with numbers to show what they have done with us. In 2009 we signed Polanco, Kepler and Sano.  Sano was the star of the entire signing period and there was much debate over his actual age that teams were scared off from signing him and we were able to get him for 3.15 million.  I think Kepler got 800,000 and
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Brandon in 500 HRs

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CBA

Competitive Balance Tax Wobbly Floor

I was just thinking about the Competitive Balance Tax in Baseball and the negotiations going on and was thinking about the concept that was proposed of a 100 million floor.  for a lot of small market teams that would be too high of a floor as it makes sense to dip down when doing a rebuild.  but the thought that crossed my mind is.... why does it have to be a solid floor?  I mean with the competitive balance tax on the top end of teams payrolls they have an escalating penalty each year they are
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Brandon in CBA

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Grading the management

Grading Falvey and CO

I guess its time to grade Falvey and CO at the 5 year mark of their run.  They came in with a young roster with lots of promise in 2017.  They were on the fringes of contention so they decided to go for it and traded for a pitcher.  They traded Ynoa who is now a starter for the Braves.  It took the Braves 4+ year to develop him so I don't hold that against this regime.  I consider it similar to when we acquired Bartlett who panned out but wasn't a name prospect.  after a week He changed course a
Pineda

Pineda's return for 2022? What is his contract like?

I have seen several overtures to Pineda wanting to stay in Minnesota.  That is a hard find in the market and with our need of several starting pitchers, we should take a good look at what it should take to resign the veteran.  Here is the article from MlbTraderumors.com I just saw which spurred this blog post.  Baldelli Hopes Pineda Will Return To Twins In 2022 - MLB Trade Rumors.  I would think its either a 1 or 2 year contract. Since we need money in the budget to sign others its probably in t
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Brandon in Pineda

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Pen

Improving Pen?

Well, Lookey there.  It looks like we have the makings of a solid bullpen again.  WHAT!.  Here is what we have, granted we can still use some upgrades.  Duffey has been solid with a few hiccups earlier in the year and has a 3.61 ERA.  Thielbar has a 3.71 era and is striking out 11.3 per 9 innings.  Alcala is back off the DL and pitched 2 scoreless innings and while his era is high this year due to giving up lots of homers, He didn’t give them up last year and I would expect him to normalize.  Mi
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Brandon in Pen

9

Depth

Looks like the Twins are trying to corner the market on depth this year. Last year they didn't do as well. We didn't have options or options to replace our depth at the major league level (who replace Adrianza and Escobar on the bench when they were pressed into starting?) for when Polanco was suspended for half the season. or when Castro went down, or Buxton, or Mauer or Sano for that matter. This year we signed the following:   1B Willin Rosario and Lucas Duda IF Ronald Torreyes and Adam R
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Trade for or Sign a starting pitcher...Which makes more sense

When I look at all of the starting pitchers who are available for trade I can't help but think that is the best way for us to get a good starting pitcher that we want for our rotation. Its no secret we won't bother trying to sign Lester, Schertzer, or Shields. We probably wont go after Santana either since there are not many options on the open market in his tier of talent so he will likely cost more than he should.   But there are lots of starting pitchers who are on the trade market who are
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1/4 season done at .500 Can This Team Contend?

We are currently 1 of 9 teams within a game and a half of the 2nd wild card spot. Knowing our major weaknesses can we fill them enough to be a contender this season?   Our SS position went hitless in April causing a huge whole in the lineup. Escobar is currently at .347 with around 100 plate appearances. if he even hits.275 its a huge upgrade at that position. CF appears to be a patchwork of Hicks, Fuld, and Santana until something gets figured out. Still a black hole. but one hole is ok.
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Comping Florimons Bat

When I see the type of numbers Florimon ended up with last year I can't help but hope for a replacement. when I dig deeper I see he is not that far off from another long term SS who was at the time considered the fastest Twin and was near gold glove caliber. That SS was Greg Gagne. Gagne has a career batting average of .254 with averaging close to 10 HRs per season and 10-15 SBs too. while Florimon hit .221 with 9 HR and 15 SB. With just a little bit of improvement he could be a fine SS for
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Player Development question for Discussion

Miguel Sano has been tearing it up in AA the last few weeks as he has raised is average from .180ish to .243 as of today and his OPS has increased 100 points or so too. His power in AA has been constant where he slumped initially on arriving but hitting for average the last several weeks. I doubt he gets called up to the Twins this season as he doesn't need to be added to the 40 man roster. However, Rochester is in a playoff race while New Britain is not. Would it be better for Sano to finis
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Trending up is Mike Pelfry

On May 31rst, Mike Pelfry started the day with a 6.85 Era. On that day he gave up 3 runs in 5.33 innings. Not very promising but it was better than what we were getting out of him. Back then we were clamoring for him to get demoted or designated for assignment. Including that start and everything else since then through today, he has averaged right at 6 innings per start with an era of 3.47. His peripherals have improved too as he has 31 k's in 49.33 innings and he has issued 13 walks with
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Bargain shopping

Players the Twinsshould still consider this offseason: The main objective for any of these signings should be to put more competition intoour weakest areas on the team and give Terry Ryan ammunition to do what he doesbest which is to trade these players for other teams minor-leaguers near the trade deadline. All of these players are available or shouldbe at a low cost, Unless the objective of next season is to lose 90+ games forbetter draft position. These signings at the right price could bo
Brandon

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