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Optimizing the Line Up with What We Already Have on the Team.


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Our lineup clearly has issues this season and we have players who succeed at inconsistent intervals.  But if you look at our players and bench and prospects you will find a lineup full of players with over a 100 OPS+ stats.  That means they are above average hitting.  And if we field a lineup of above average hitting players we might score more consistently and more often resulting in more wins.  Here is one way I see we can optimize our lineup and put our best foot forward based on various stats.  for this I am using the following for consideration.  OPS+ (the main stat)  Average, BB, XBH per 10, BB per 10

First let's sort through our starting 9 then figure out a proper batting order.

C  Ryan Jeffers is the better hitter between him and Vazquez with an .804 OPS and 124 OPS+

1B Solano is hitting .773 OPS with a 116 OPS + He probably should be our leadoff hitter with that On Base Percentage of his .379

2B  Edouard Julien .783 OPS and 116 OPS +  he is even with 12 XBH and 13 BB in 127 AB and he has a solid .341 OBP

3B Lewis has a .863 OPS and 137 OPS+ he hits with a high average and decent HRs.  however only 3 BB and 6 XBH in 81 AB so not patient and not quite at the 1 XBH per 10 AB you want to see but kinda small sample size.

SS Kyle Farmer and Correa are pretty interchangeable here right now.  Correa has more HRs and Farmer the higher OBP though not by too much.  Correa is 91 OPS+ but has 28 XBH and 29 BB in 268 AB so he has a slight positive number in these 2 categories which means he just needs to get his batting average up to be a better contributer.

OF  Killeroff in LF with a .763 OPS and 113 OPS+ with a .366 OBP he could hit 2nd since he isnt reaching full power potential yet.

OF Gallo in CF  three true outcome player.  over 60% of his plate appearances end in a HR, BB, or Strike out.  with a .768 OPS and .110 OPS+ He still starts.  

OF Rf is a toss up of Larnarch, Kepler, or Castro.  all are within a few points of each other in OPS Castro has more speed and Kepler has been great with the glove.  OR we could give Walner a chance with his 1.099 OPS and 206 OPS+  while I doubt he would stay hitting at that pace he could hit .750 OPS and be better then the trio in front of him.  

DH Buxton and Polanco are interchangeable as long as Buxton is somewhat hurt.  they both have a 103 and 102 OPS+ at this point.  Though when healthy Buxton can hit.  

so lets configure a lineup from this and see what we think.  Clearly this lineup is a defensive downgrade but much better hitting lineup.

RHB 1b Solano 116 OPS+

LHB 2B Julien 116 OPS +

RHB 3B Lewis 137 OPS +

LHB LF Killeroff 113 OPS +

RHB DH Buxton 103 OPS +

LHB CF Gallo 110 OPS +

RHB SS Correa 91 OPS +

LHB RF Wallner 206 OPS + (SSS)

RHB C Jeffers 124 OPS+

This lineup breaks up the RHB and LHB evenly throughout the lineup.  it also gives us a lineup with everyone but Correa over 100 OPS +.  it puts the high on base percentage guys at the top of the lineup.  power is in the 5-8 lineup slots, and Jeffers has a great on base percentage at this point which helps serve as a line up catalyst at the bottom of the lineup.  I left Correa in to help keep defense as good as possible.  Taylor is ready to be deployed into CF for defense upgrade when needed.  

How would you try to maximize our offense with what we have.  

7 Comments


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Rod Carews Birthday

Posted

I like the concept a lot, since we need something (anything!) to get the offense going.  First glance seems pretty good but I'm not sure that Gallo is up to playing CF, although he's a pretty good outfielder in general.  I'm also not sure that it is "OK" to drop Correa that far in the lineup, although I think it's a good idea as well.  The biggest key though is that we still have to get better production out of Correa and Buxton.  They are supposed to be franchise cornerstones and they aren't playing like it at the moment. 

jorgenswest

Posted

Your main stat OPS+ is based on slash stats and they need a very large sample to stabilize. Would it be wise to devise a lineup for the rest of the season based on the first (almost) half of the season?

Brandon

Posted

17 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Your main stat OPS+ is based on slash stats and they need a very large sample to stabilize. Would it be wise to devise a lineup for the rest of the season based on the first (almost) half of the season?

It doesn’t have to be the rest of the season.  Obviously Gallo is not a full time CF but this lineup is designed by using our best players in a spot we can maximize the offensive contributions we have been getting.  The lineup will change from day to day but using a lineup like this for a few weeks may see us scoring more and that is the point.  Jump starting the offense into consistency and constant scoring.

also I believe Correa will hit and move up in the lineup.

and I wanted to get a discussion about this as it feels like we have the pieces for a good offense but they are not being deployed optimally.  

 

jorgenswest

Posted

If I tried anything for a few weeks it would to try to reduce strike outs and start more often the hitters that tend to put the ball in play. I would also be more aggressive on the bases in front of batters like Correa that tend to hit into double plays. Balls in play and running can energize a bench.

Without the support of a study, I wonder if the volume of those strike outs are giving a boost to the pitcher and have a negative impact taking away some energy from the rest of the offense. There is no chance of stringing together a few bloop hits with all of those strike outs. In the baseball environment of the 90s there was almost no correlation between runs scored and strike outs. Is that still true in the 2023 environment. I might be worth the time to take a look.

In a put the ball in play plan Miranda and Celestino might be the additions. I have been biased for quite a while by OPS driven up by power and walks. I wonder if baseball is shifting and I haven’t noticed.

edit: A graph of team strikeouts per 100 games and runs per 100 games. The line looks similar as the 90s. If there is a relationship it may be quadratic. The teams that score the most runs happen to be more in the middle of the strike out list. They must have a balance between contact and power in their line up. If that is true in the new environment of 2023, how can the Twins achieve that balance?

 

 

 

desmos-graph - 2023-06-27T190641.691.png

Karbo

Posted

There just isn't anything good that can happen when they strikeout! Put the ball in play and there is at least a chance something good will happen!

saviking

Posted

How about:

Julian 2B

Lewis 3B

Krilloff 1B

Wallner RF

Larnach LF

Correa SS

Buxton DH

Castillo CF

Jefferson C

Blyleven2011

Posted

I vote Brandon manager of the twins , at least he's trying something solid for two week's  ...

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