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IT's Offseason Blueprint

The idea of taking a shot at an offseason plan is always a fun one. Here's my attempt. As best as I could, I used the arbitration projections cited elsewhere. I also used the free agent projections at MLBTradeRumors as starting points. And I had the advantage of being able to include the Urshela and Farmer moves and other action that's happened to date.    First, the sunk costs – options that didn’t get picked up: Bundy $1M, Archer $.75M and Sano $2.75M for a total cost of $4.5M N

IndianaTwin

IndianaTwin in Rosters

November 16th Bleacher Report Farm System Ranking

Looks like my previous Blog had a bad link. This one seems to be working for me. I prefer the tier rankings over 1-100 type. Most tier 1's are in your top 100 type listings. Tier 2 prospects are usually 75-200 range. Keith Law pointed out that the difference between a #1 prospect and a #25 is usually huge. Where a 50th ranked player and a 100th ranked player is pretty small. Updated MLB Farm System Rankings at Start of the 2022-23 Offseason | News, Scores, Highlights, Stats, and Rumors

weitz41

weitz41 in Farm System

Did The Twins Get What They Paid For? Part Two (By Daddy Warbucks)

Okay, so the Twins have "Farmed" out shortstop. Unless of course the FO goal is to quickly swap Farmer for two PTBNL, a broken down reliever and a partridge in a pear tree. Anyway, I asked Daddy Warbucks to give us a quick assessment of the financial impact of swapping the two shortstops. Stats (2022) Player       Salary     WAR     HR     Ave (Maria?)     RibEyes       OPS      Cost per WAR     Cost Per RBI Correa      $35 mill    5.4      22        .291                     64   

Dave The Dastardly

Dave The Dastardly in Blog

Top 3 FA Rule 5 moves for Twins

With the deadline for finalizing 40 man roster in advance of the Rule 5,  There are some very cheap, low risk high reward type players out there.  These are right in teh Twins wheelhouse.  Gamble on the cheap and see if you hit the lottery. So the first one isn't a FA or rule 5 but he is the type of player that COULD be.  1B/OF Dom Smiht of the Mets.  Dom is a GG caliber 1B.  This kid actually CAN hit. He has just never been given consistent ABs in a consistent position in the field being b

Lets go big!!

There have been a number of wild posts that are not based in any sort of reality. This is another of those. Twins should sign Verlander, Correa (I would prefer Turner but let's stick with Correa), and Judge. Because of course it is only that easy.  lol...   But.., they CAN afford it. Reason #1,  Verlander's deal will be no more than 3 years, so that will come and go before you know it and not impact long-term roster building.  the other 2... well that is a different stor

Short starts wasn't "The Plan"

Quite a number of posts have railed about “The Plan” for Twins starters to make short starts and never face the Third Time Through the Order, but I did a fairly deep dive into looking at box scores and would offer a different analysis of their starter usage this season. Here’s an alternative take for consideration, arguing that The Plan was not the plan:  From Opening Day until about May 31, the Twins tried using starters in a “normal” pattern. If you look at starters across the board (e

IndianaTwin

IndianaTwin in Rosters

1st MLB Draft Lottery this year, but there is a better way

I believe I had shared this thought last year, If I hadn't., I thought I'd throw it out there for your thoughts While a draft lottery for the top 6 positions is at least a start to preventing tanking, still there is an incentive to losing. Albeit not as great as before, btu ask any team, would you rather have a16.5% chance (like teams with worst records) or a 0.9% chance like the Twins have.  I am guessing any GM that wants to rebuild will take the 16.5% chance and tank.  The way to prevent tank

Doc Munson

Doc Munson in Hot Stove

Carlos Correa Option. Would this be legal?

I am not an expert on the MLB CBA, but I am wondering if something like this would be legal... Could the Twins and Correa come to an agreement where he opts in for 2023, and teh Twins agree to allow him to negotiate with other teams for a long term contract?   Hasnt something like this happened before with disgruntled (not the case with Correa, he just wants long term deal) players who "demand trades"?  Maybe it is only in other sports, like NBA, but I could swear I remember stori

Twins 2022 MVP picks

I know this list is late, as the team MVP awards have already been announced but I wanted to do mine anyway. The subject that gets overlooked in much MVP discussion, is the definition of value. So, I want to start this off by explaining my definition, which will hopefully make my picks understandable even if they are not agreeable. When it comes to defining valuable, in my experience, often the answer you’ll get is “the player who helped their team win most”. However, that leaves open the questi

Shobae

Shobae in Twins

The Lantern Bearer (Revisited)

Since this week was the 20th anniversary of Senator Paul Wellstone's death, I thought I might run one of my favorite columns, which I wrote to eulogize him.  I got quite a bit of feedback on it, and it mostly left me depressed, since many missed the point of the column.  Many readers who were critical of the column couldn't see beyond his politics, and even more sadly, neither could many of his supporters who praised it.  For me, the magic of Wellstone wasn't what he fought for, it was how he fo

John Bonnes

John Bonnes in Not Twins

Did The Twins Get What They Paid For?

Shortstop Angst According to Team Rankings (https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/double-plays-per-game) the Twins ranked 23 out of 30 teams in double plays per game with an average of .73. Pre-Correa (2021) the Twins averaged .85 per game. Twins finish in the division? 3rd in 2022, 5th in 2021. Number One on the list, St. Louis at 1.11 per game. Last on the List? NY Yankees at .65. Which of the three teams made it to the play-offs? Cards and Yankees. Ponder that. Fielding htt

C'mon there's a big hole for you to walk through.

The Twins will soon officially have a shortstop vacancy. Carlos Correa has informed the media (and I presume the Twins) that he will opt-out of the second year of his contract. One possibility, Jermaine Palacios, has been DFAed and claimed by the Detroit Tigers. The Twins have shown no tendency to use in-house options Jorge Polanco, Nick Gordon or Gio Urshela as a regular shortstop. Brooks Lee hasn't been with the organization a year out of college and looked pretty rough on defense in the minor

My Pitching Profiling, Part 2- What's an ace?/ SP profiling

What qualifies to be an ace? How to profile SPs? I'd like to give you my take. As was previously stated in part 1, a SP is a pitcher who can regularly give you at least 5 quality innings & sustain that, otherwise is better off in long relief. I'd like to categorize them as 5th, 4th, 3rd, 2nd & top SP, ace and workhorse. I will rate them accordingly by stuff & arm strength. Stuff= quality of pitch, # of quality pitches in his repertroire, command & location. Arm strength that

Picking the Postseason

The Minnesota Twins are not going to make the 2022 Major League Baseball postseason, but there's plenty of exciting action on tap for October. With the field set, I figured it's time to put my predictions on paper. Rays over Guardians, Blue Jays over Mariners Tampa wins the battle of pitching having been a bit more battle tested in a ridiculously difficult AL East division. I like the Mariners, but think the Blue Jays lineup is too deep. What Jose Berrios looks like in October could be

My Pitching Profiling- Part 1 intro/ SP/ RP

IMO evaluating pitching is absolutely essential. Therefore profiling pitching is essential in how to use your pitchers that you have on hand. My goal here is to give my very simplified version of profiling. 1st what's the difference between a SP and a closer or set up man? And who do I put where? 1st of all, the arm strength of a SP is able to take him at least 5 innings where a RP can't, closer/ setup man normally pitches 1 inning. 2ndly SP needs to pace himself thru the 5+ innings where a

High Marks??

OK, Honestly I really do not enjoy being critical or a pessimist.  But I nearly did a spit-take when I saw Dave St Peter give the Twins FO and "Falvine"   "High Marks".  Seriously, from what benchmark can you give this FO high marks? Can you blame them for the injuries and the failures down the stretch?  Well yeah, at least a little bit. They trade for TWO starting pitchers that had injury histories.  Anyone could see Paddack's injury coming, and it was called here and many other places at

2022 Twins--What Went Wrong and How to Fix It

Some time after the All-Star break, I was pondering how the Twins could fit all of their quality major league position players on the active roster. A few weeks later, baseball immortals Mark Contreras and Caleb Hamilton were on the big club. Fast forward to a crucial five-game series in Cleveland and the Twins were starting Bailey Ober, Josh Winder (both coming off injuries) and having Louie Varland make his second major league start and Jake Cave and Gilberto Celestino were considered regular

stringer bell

stringer bell in Analysis

OK, not Twins, but ... Judge V Ohtani? Who ya got?

Both Judge and Ohtani are having potentially historic seasons, which one would you give MVP to? Judge: Has hit 60, will break the AL (and TRUE) HR mark of 61.  He also while absolutely running away with HR and RBI title could be having a triple crown season. Leads league in... HR, RBI, BB, AVG (as of yesterday), OBP, SLugging, OPS, WRC+, XBH, WAR, and has 16 SB. plus Yankees are in 1st place, with him being the major reason why.   Ohtani: While "just" a DH when

Doc Munson

Doc Munson in Season So Far

Why no heart? THIS is why... Continuation Discussion

Everyone has their own opinions, and I LOVE debating each side. In discussion one commenter (Seth Stohs) Who I love reading his stuff and so should you!!! look up his posts they are great!!!  basically asked "what does "no heart" look like on TV"?   Well, win or lose against teh Angels tonight we are being shown the answer.  Yes people can make errors. That is not playign without heart, but allowing errors to compoun dis a part of that.   I luned in late, and literally t

Doc Munson

Doc Munson in Season So Far

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