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jharaldson

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About jharaldson

  • Birthday 10/04/1978

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  1. Let's look at the regular season then. The Twins have gone 32-109 against the Yankees since 2002. That .227 Winning% is worse than the New York Mets baseline of 40-120 that is commonly used as replacement level. Seeing the Twins getting dominated by the Yankees year after year and seeing the Twins and AL Central have so many issues in the postseason make me think that we need to weight your "mediocre" scale. In FIP they often have a ballpark rating to adjust expected ERA up or down depending on ease of hitting HR and such. I am going to apply a factor to teams in the AL Central. An 81-81 team in the AL East is better than an 81-81 team in the Central so while you used +-10 games to get to 76-86 and 86-76 I am going to use 80 as my starting point and go 80-82 and 90-72 which means requiring 4 additional wins per season to get out of "mediocre" for an AL Central team. This adjusts your table to the following: 2002: 94-67 - Good 2003: 90-72 - Mediocre 2004: 92-70 - Good 2005: 83-79 - Mediocre 2006: 96-66 - Good 2007: 79-83 - Bad 2008: 88-75 - Mediocre 2009: 87-76 - Mediocre 2010: 94-68 - Good 2011: 63-99 - Bad 2012: 66-96 - Bad 2013: 66-96 - Bad 2014: 70-92 - Bad 2015: 83-79 - Mediocre 2016: 59-103 - Bad 2017: 85-77 - Mediocre 2018: 78-84 - Bad 2019: 101-61 - Good 2020: Too short to compare 2021: 73-89 - Bad I personally view 14 of the past 20 season as either mediocre or bad.
  2. From what I can see in the link below it is actually less than 1.5 seconds. Washington Post Baseball Swing Study I'm not saying that this is easy, it is incredibly hard. But being able to identify a pitch is part of what distinguishes a professional from a minor leaguer and is a defined and recognized skill in major league baseball. In regards to Chapman, from what I can read his injury was caused as a result of the ball being excessively darkened by spit, dirt, and other substances plus the fact the game had extended into the late afternoon with no artificial lights. Not being able to react because you can't see the ball vs. not reacting well to a ball that is fully visible and is well-lit are two entirely different things.
  3. I will disagree with the fact that this injury is not Buxton's fault. Below I have 2 screenshots from the pitch that hit him. The first shows him with his hands protected behind his triceps and the second is from a fraction of a second later when he had brought his hands in to start a swinging motion. He obviously massively misjudged this ball and instead of protecting his hands during a non-swing he had to instead try to protect them mid-swing which is why they were out there in plain sight. Better pitch identification and him reacting by turning his left shoulder in instead of bringing his hands into the zone would have prevented this injury.
  4. Something a little outside the box I would like to see is the Twins go after Yu Darvish on a trade. He ranked 7th among all starters in K% and 10th in xFIP. His ERA and FIP were inflated due to uncharacteristically high HR% which may be solved by leaving Wrigley and can help reduce his trade cost. he is down to 4Y/$81M on his contract which helps reduce the risk.
  5. In regards to the 3AM discussion, I would ask that people would evaluate this based on the culture of the Dominican Republic and not in US standards. I traveled to Brazil last year and because they are used to having American guests they worked with a restaurant to ensure they would be open at 8PM when they were going to take us out to eat. I asked why this is and they said because it is so hot out during the day that most activity takes place at night and that late dinners at 10,11,12 is fairly common. I am not sure how many cultural norms Brazil and the Dominican Republic share but it seems like a possibility that this is one.
  6. 5 years ago I took my kids to a game and we got there early. We hung around the dugout and Tony Oliva saw my kids and autographed a couple of balls and rolled them over the limestone to them. Made their night.
  7. Just to confirm, I had done some research and found that Mike Beradino reported it as an "OR" in 2014 when the contract was signed: https://www.twincities.com/2014/12/12/twins-signing-ervin-santana-about-more-than-the-arm/ I would trust Beradino over all of the other sources as I think he may have actually spoken to someone vs just being an aggregator of news articles written by others. Are you saying Mike is wrong as well?
  8. Pioneer Press reporter Mike Beradino reported it as an "OR" in his article in December of 2014 covering the signing: https://www.twincities.com/2014/12/12/twins-signing-ervin-santana-about-more-than-the-arm/
  9. Here are 3 things I take as facts: - Joe Mauer revealed in March of 2016 that he had been experiencing vision issues during the previous season. - The Twins were surprised at this fact and were not aware of Joe's vision issues. - The Twins medical staff asked Joe dozens, if not hundreds of times, a set of specific concussion related questions between August 2013 and March 2016. I would be interested in another theory as to how these can all be true that doesn't involve Joe Mauer lying about his symptoms to the Twins medical staff.
  10. I have had a concussion and had to follow up on it with my doctor. At every visit I was specifically asked a number of questions: 1. Are you having headaches or memory issues? 2. Are you experiencing any vision issues including blurred vision, sensitivity to light, etc... 3. Are you feeling sluggish? etc... I would answer these honestly each time because a concussion is a serious injury. I have a hard time believing that Mauer was not asked these questions on a frequent basis by the Twins staff because after the Morneau concussion they truly understood how serious an injury this is. By frequently I mean no less than once a week and more likely it was once before any game. I would guess he was asked these questions hundreds of times between having the concussion and revealing his vision issues in spring training, 2016. Based on the Twins surprise when Mauer revealed these vision issues I have to assume that when he was asked these questions that he lied to the Twins.
  11. I think Mike is on point here and I think I have a pathway that the Twins can use to get this done. The Twins have a big advantage over the competition, they can influence the amount he can get paid this year. I would go to Brian with the following points: 1. Daniel Murphy was right after you in WAR for 2B last season and his free agent contract in 2016 was 3 years/$37.5 million. 2. $5.5 million of that was deferred. 3. We have room in our 2018 budget due to BAMTech to get you more money immediately. My formal offer would be the following: - 3 years/$45 million - No deferred money - $6 million raise in 2018 to bring his salary up to $15 million - $5 million signing bonus This would allow us to use our financial flexibility over the next few years but comes off the books as guys like Buxton, Sano, and Rosario hit free agency.
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