Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

jharaldson

Verified Member
  • Posts

    371
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by jharaldson

  1. As this lockout stretches on I have been thinking back to the last time this happened. The year was 1994 and Friends had just premiered on NBC, OJ Simpson captured all of our interest while slowly evading police in his white Bronco, and the MLB and MLBPA buzzkilled my fall by killing baseball and the World Series. I thought it might be fun to take the issues that were being discussed during that work stoppage and see in hindsight who had it right. Drug Testing In 1994 the owners submitted a drug testing program as part of their proposal for a labor agreement. Selig commented on this in testimony to Congress later: While MLB gave up way too quickly on this, it was the MLBPA that pushed back. David Cone, a rep for the players at the time, had some negative memories of his experience: In retrospect, with all of the issues impacting the Hall of Fame and the steroid class that followed I would say that the players truly screwed up this part of the negotiations. Arbitration As part of their proposal to the players the MLB was willing to reduce the years of team control from 6 years to 4 years: The players maintained a hardline opposition to a hard cap, which the owners had tied this proposal to, and ultimately rejected it. In 2022 they have given up on their request to remove 1 year of team control and are now shooting for more Super 2 status. In addition, the good, young players of this generation are feeling some pressure to sign early extensions that are team friendly because of the team control and I bet they would appreciate being 2 years closer to free agency now. Another loss in hindsight for the players. Cap In 1994 the owners submitted a proposal where they would split revenues with the players 50/50 in exchange for a hard cap across all team. The players rejected this equal distribution of revenue and instead compromised on a luxury tax that is not based on revenue and has effectively been used as a cap since. In 2021, the payroll for all teams was roughly $4B while the revenue for all teams was roughly $12B. My math has that at a 33% distribution which means the revered Donald Fehr and the MLB Players negotiated themselves a deal where they earn 17% less revenue. In 2021 that means the players could have earned $2B more under the owners 1994 proposal. I don't think that all would have gone to the best players either because even with all that new obligation I would think that the Angels would not increase the money they pay Trout from $37M a year to $56M a year and it would likely mean a lot bigger floor of minimum salaries to meet the %50 revenue obligation. I would call this a 3rd strike for players. Conclusion In short, we wouldn't have had the steroid era as badly, players could be free agents 2 years quicker, players would be making 50% more, and we would have had a 1994 World Series if the players hadn't declared a strike and accepted the owners offer. If only Mr. Peabody's Wayback machine was real?
  2. One of the things I think gets forgotten in these negotiations is that the owners are likely still remembering back to the end of 2020 where, according to Forbes, they lost $1 Billion due to empty stadiums but full paychecks to players. They look at the NBA where their players worked with ownership and agreed to a %25 paycut to reflect empty stadiums and to the NHL where the players agreed to a %20 paycut and a %10 deferral. The owners must remember when they put an 82 season on the table with some paycuts to try and put a dent in those losses and the players rejecting it. In the proposal the owners put forward a minimum salaried guy like Luis Arraez would have made $256K in 82 games but guys like Donaldson would have taken a good sized cut. The players preferred a system where Arraez made $208K in 60 games so Donaldson could get his full pay. I don't see any good will the players have built with the owners that would incentivize them to negotiate a favorable deal to the players. They probably think they gave enough in 2020.
  3. Let's look at the regular season then. The Twins have gone 32-109 against the Yankees since 2002. That .227 Winning% is worse than the New York Mets baseline of 40-120 that is commonly used as replacement level. Seeing the Twins getting dominated by the Yankees year after year and seeing the Twins and AL Central have so many issues in the postseason make me think that we need to weight your "mediocre" scale. In FIP they often have a ballpark rating to adjust expected ERA up or down depending on ease of hitting HR and such. I am going to apply a factor to teams in the AL Central. An 81-81 team in the AL East is better than an 81-81 team in the Central so while you used +-10 games to get to 76-86 and 86-76 I am going to use 80 as my starting point and go 80-82 and 90-72 which means requiring 4 additional wins per season to get out of "mediocre" for an AL Central team. This adjusts your table to the following: 2002: 94-67 - Good 2003: 90-72 - Mediocre 2004: 92-70 - Good 2005: 83-79 - Mediocre 2006: 96-66 - Good 2007: 79-83 - Bad 2008: 88-75 - Mediocre 2009: 87-76 - Mediocre 2010: 94-68 - Good 2011: 63-99 - Bad 2012: 66-96 - Bad 2013: 66-96 - Bad 2014: 70-92 - Bad 2015: 83-79 - Mediocre 2016: 59-103 - Bad 2017: 85-77 - Mediocre 2018: 78-84 - Bad 2019: 101-61 - Good 2020: Too short to compare 2021: 73-89 - Bad I personally view 14 of the past 20 season as either mediocre or bad.
  4. From what I can see in the link below it is actually less than 1.5 seconds. Washington Post Baseball Swing Study I'm not saying that this is easy, it is incredibly hard. But being able to identify a pitch is part of what distinguishes a professional from a minor leaguer and is a defined and recognized skill in major league baseball. In regards to Chapman, from what I can read his injury was caused as a result of the ball being excessively darkened by spit, dirt, and other substances plus the fact the game had extended into the late afternoon with no artificial lights. Not being able to react because you can't see the ball vs. not reacting well to a ball that is fully visible and is well-lit are two entirely different things.
  5. I will disagree with the fact that this injury is not Buxton's fault. Below I have 2 screenshots from the pitch that hit him. The first shows him with his hands protected behind his triceps and the second is from a fraction of a second later when he had brought his hands in to start a swinging motion. He obviously massively misjudged this ball and instead of protecting his hands during a non-swing he had to instead try to protect them mid-swing which is why they were out there in plain sight. Better pitch identification and him reacting by turning his left shoulder in instead of bringing his hands into the zone would have prevented this injury.
  6. Something a little outside the box I would like to see is the Twins go after Yu Darvish on a trade. He ranked 7th among all starters in K% and 10th in xFIP. His ERA and FIP were inflated due to uncharacteristically high HR% which may be solved by leaving Wrigley and can help reduce his trade cost. he is down to 4Y/$81M on his contract which helps reduce the risk.
  7. In regards to the 3AM discussion, I would ask that people would evaluate this based on the culture of the Dominican Republic and not in US standards. I traveled to Brazil last year and because they are used to having American guests they worked with a restaurant to ensure they would be open at 8PM when they were going to take us out to eat. I asked why this is and they said because it is so hot out during the day that most activity takes place at night and that late dinners at 10,11,12 is fairly common. I am not sure how many cultural norms Brazil and the Dominican Republic share but it seems like a possibility that this is one.
  8. 5 years ago I took my kids to a game and we got there early. We hung around the dugout and Tony Oliva saw my kids and autographed a couple of balls and rolled them over the limestone to them. Made their night.
  9. Just to confirm, I had done some research and found that Mike Beradino reported it as an "OR" in 2014 when the contract was signed: https://www.twincities.com/2014/12/12/twins-signing-ervin-santana-about-more-than-the-arm/ I would trust Beradino over all of the other sources as I think he may have actually spoken to someone vs just being an aggregator of news articles written by others. Are you saying Mike is wrong as well?
  10. Pioneer Press reporter Mike Beradino reported it as an "OR" in his article in December of 2014 covering the signing: https://www.twincities.com/2014/12/12/twins-signing-ervin-santana-about-more-than-the-arm/
  11. Here are 3 things I take as facts: - Joe Mauer revealed in March of 2016 that he had been experiencing vision issues during the previous season. - The Twins were surprised at this fact and were not aware of Joe's vision issues. - The Twins medical staff asked Joe dozens, if not hundreds of times, a set of specific concussion related questions between August 2013 and March 2016. I would be interested in another theory as to how these can all be true that doesn't involve Joe Mauer lying about his symptoms to the Twins medical staff.
  12. I have had a concussion and had to follow up on it with my doctor. At every visit I was specifically asked a number of questions: 1. Are you having headaches or memory issues? 2. Are you experiencing any vision issues including blurred vision, sensitivity to light, etc... 3. Are you feeling sluggish? etc... I would answer these honestly each time because a concussion is a serious injury. I have a hard time believing that Mauer was not asked these questions on a frequent basis by the Twins staff because after the Morneau concussion they truly understood how serious an injury this is. By frequently I mean no less than once a week and more likely it was once before any game. I would guess he was asked these questions hundreds of times between having the concussion and revealing his vision issues in spring training, 2016. Based on the Twins surprise when Mauer revealed these vision issues I have to assume that when he was asked these questions that he lied to the Twins.
  13. I think Mike is on point here and I think I have a pathway that the Twins can use to get this done. The Twins have a big advantage over the competition, they can influence the amount he can get paid this year. I would go to Brian with the following points: 1. Daniel Murphy was right after you in WAR for 2B last season and his free agent contract in 2016 was 3 years/$37.5 million. 2. $5.5 million of that was deferred. 3. We have room in our 2018 budget due to BAMTech to get you more money immediately. My formal offer would be the following: - 3 years/$45 million - No deferred money - $6 million raise in 2018 to bring his salary up to $15 million - $5 million signing bonus This would allow us to use our financial flexibility over the next few years but comes off the books as guys like Buxton, Sano, and Rosario hit free agency.
  14. I am all for silver linings but I think you have a couple items in here that do not qualify: I don't get how this is a silver lining. There were 15 players last year that pitched 200+ innings. The average WAR was 4.4 with the lowest being 2.0. I don't know any contending team that would turn down a 1 year/$14 million contract for that kind of production. WAR Link For comparison purposes, the 4 big free agent pitchers this year (Darvish, Arrieta, Cobb, Lynn) had an average WAR of 2.5 with the low being 1.4 and they seem to be in line for 4-6 year contracts for $15-21 million a year. Free Agent WAR Link The Twins are a mid-market team and should be expected to be middle of the pack on payroll. The median salary in MLB is about $135 million (Link). Inflation was 2.13% in 2017 (Link). If we project that over the next 6 years the median payroll in 2023 will be $153 million or higher, as MLB payroll has grown significantly faster than inflation in the past. The Twins have no payroll obligations past 2019 and should easily be able to absorb 13.7% of their payroll being dead money. They got by this year with Phil Hughes, Nolasco, Park, and Perkins consuming 25% of their payroll.
  15. When I hear “4 or 5 years” I interpret that as meaning 4 guaranteed years and a vesting option for a 5th. Doogie also seemed to imply the yearly value was in the $20-22 million range. He was projected to get 6 years and $160 million by mlbtraderumors and the Twins could be offering 4 years and $80 million. This is a lowball offer if true.
  16. Here is a link to my most recent blog post, Twins Analytics Infrastructure. It is a little on the nerdier side but I would love to get any feedback and/or comments. Thanks!
  17. This Twins have had a bit of a tortured history with analytics. In 2010 Rob Antony did an interview with TwinsDaily’s own Parker Hageman and revealed some interesting facts about the Twins and Sabermetrics. Antony stated this about their analytics department, “we're probably one of the last, if not the last, team to address it with a person dedicated solely to that.”. He went on further to fail to understand some fairly basic concepts about Sabermetrics. He thought FIP was “first strike in inning pitched” and was unable to guess about BABIP. He then revealed they had just hired their analytics guy and stated he would be “Gathering information and creating databases. This will be his first year. The guy that we brought in will start creating systems to build a foundation of our own that we can look at.” This is what I primarily want to get into as I have a background in IT. In corporate America one of the techniques we use to understand what our competition is doing is to analyze their job postings. Have they posted an unusually large amount of Sales positions? Are they looking at specific geographic locations that have a concentration of talent? Are they asking for specific or unusual technical skills? These are all things we can look at to try to get an idea of intent and structure. I applied this technique to the Twins and their development job postings and found some interesting things. 2014 Posting 2015 Posting One of the common details in both job postings is the fact that the Twins were looking for a developer who had experience doing front-end work (HTML, JavaScript), middle tier (.NET Framework, ASP.MVC), and the data layer (SQL Server). This implies a couple of things. The first is that the Twins are employing a standard three-tier architecture for their analytics. It also implies that they only have “full stack” developers, which means they are required to know and to be able to develop in all 3 of their architecture tiers. This is problematic because is you are required to be able to code in everything that usually means you are unable to specialize or gain really in-depth knowledge on any single tier. For the Twins to take the next step in analytics I think they need to be hiring specialists in each of these areas. Another thing I noticed is that the only data store they referred to is SQL Server. The reason that this is important is that the industry still values relational datamarts like SQL Server but they are also moving in the direction of unstructured Big Data repositories as well. Applications like Hadoop, HBASE, MongoDB, and many others allow unstructured data to be quickly stored and analyzed which allows for more experimentation by analysts when compared to a structured DB. I think the PITCH f/x and Trackman data has likely been analyzed enough but I think the next frontier is going into some less structured data. Putting medical records into a big data store and analyzing test results and notes to find patterns in identifying healthier players. Putting free text scouting reports into it and running natural language analytics on them using IBM Watson or some other AI service to identify key language or sentiments that indicate a player that is more likely to succeed. The addition of weather data and the analysis of its impact on specific players. I think there is a lot of room to grow here. In short, I think it is likely this lack of specialization and not embracing the newer Big Data technologies led Thad Levine and Derek Falvey to go in a new direction this last fall with the analytics department. I wouldn’t be surprised if the hiring surge described in a recent article by Pat Reusse did not include hires to address these concerns. I am interested in your thoughts and feedback.
  18. Then you say no and let Darvish figure out if he wants to accept that 3 or 4 year deal he can get right now from this depressed market. Does he want to earn more money in 1 year than any MLB player has ever done and go to free agency in 2019 when the Yankees and Dodgers would be in the mix? Or does he want to accept half that annual contract value and not get the 5-6 year term he wants?
  19. I agree the idea could be repurposed. A 4 year/$140 million contract with $60 million being a signing bonus using the BAMTech money might get him to agree to a reduced term from the 5-7 years he is likely looking for. I wouldn't be opposed to Falvine putting both options on the table.
×
×
  • Create New...