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Greglw3

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  1. Here’s a play by the average at best defensive third baseman. It might be the best defensive play I’ve ever see a 3rd baseman make.
  2. I agree with you Mark. One easy solution would be to start Sanchez 70% at C, Jeffers 30% and have Miranda DH full time. I calculated his batting average a few days back starting on May 20. It was .343. Hmm. .345, .344, .343, AA, AAA, MLB. I’ve been assured by Latroy and Roy Smalley that they and the Twins have no doubt he’s gonna hit. I also agree with you on Urshela. Roy Smalley said on the Twins telecast that Urshela was the best defensive 3rd baseman in the league and I agree. I also agree with you that Urshela has played a level of defense at 3rd that I just haven’t seen in years. Rocco Baldelli said that Urshela’s defense was exceptional and he had a very high IQ for the game. I loathe those SABR defensive statistics. They’re so out of touch with what solid baseball men can easily see. Especially Smalley who has a brilliant baseball mind. After all he’s Gene Mauch’s nephew and Mauch was a tactical genius.
  3. Just another misleading statistic like WPA, OAA, UZR, WAR, OPS+ (slanted heavily toward power hitters and against Arraez), launch speed (Arraez’s probably low but hitting ~.350). Correa and Arraez are the only 2 holding the offense together. I think this recent phenomenon of these very questionable SABR type statistics is quite unfortunate. All of the defensive statistics are meaningless and almost always misleading if you compare to Scouts, managers, broadcasters - people that deeply understand baseball - takes.
  4. I agree with those who say don’t trade Correa and would add they must sign him to a long term deal. IMO just as important or more (due to Correa’s relative durability) than signing Buxton last offseason. I would not trade Urshela because he provides somewhat of an iron wall with Correa on the left side. I would trade Kepler and think the Twins OF would be just fine with Kirilloff, Larnach, Buxton, Celestino, Garlick. And the no brainer is that Sano is getting passed by, perhaps by Miranda. So I’ve got Kepler as the main trade chip and they could tap the minors for the extra ingredients.
  5. We can’t have a discussion on Urshela’s defense vs. anyone because you completely lost Me by considering it necessary to state that Urshela’s metrics put him as one of the worst in the league and that he isn’t even top 10 by the eye test. Ridiculous!!! I don’t know of any other player that has made a reaching, near miraculous diving stop, roll over on his back and laying on the ground, on his back, from his but get enough on the throw to throw the runner out. Cite me an example where another player has done that. Plus, his throwing arm is strong and reliable and he has made many more spectacular plays than the one I described. I’ve followed baseball for 58 years and NEVER, not once, see a 3rd baseman make a play like that. And he almost did it again. Per Aaron Gleeman quoting Rocco Baldelli: Rocco Baldelli, pregame, on Gio Urshela's defense: "He's been exceptional at third base. Really on all kinds of plays. His feel for the game is high-end. He has one of the better baseball minds of anyone. His feel is exceptional, his awareness is great."
  6. Those metrics, in my opinion, any defensive metric except errors (which is of limited value) is attempting an unobtainable reading of a defensive player’s worth. This was an accepted fact until what I would call the SABR fad grew into increasing, but ill-placed popularity. I don’t reject SABR stats because I’m old school but because I constantly see them being used to draw conclusions that any good scout will tell you is unwarranted. But, in the end, anyone - be they a fan or a front office person is free to use UZR and whatever evolving version of WAR they like or the flawed OPS+ to make their evaluations. Stats are exciting. I took 6 courses in Northwestern’s Masters in Predictive Analytics courses so I love stats. But the expression, "there are lies, damned lies and statistics" kind of holds true when new, unproven statistics are used to come up with such silly conclusions as " Eddie Rosario with his ~300 batting average and team leading 109 RBIs and overall at least average defense, fantastic throwing arm, is the worst left fielder in the league. Or in the current case Gio Urshela is not a good fielder due to UZR or some other totally unreliable defensive statistic. WHen some Twins fans (a lot?) were saying Eddie was a bad overall LF. I did some research and his WAR was north of 3. Then they subtracted all the way from 3.2 or 3.4 down to a final 0.9 due to defense. No way his defense was so bad that it took about 75% of his overall value away! He caught most balls hit to him, made an occasional bonehead play but then contributed to winning with his throwing arm I don’t think that in the tradition of statistical analysis, there is any way to run a two group trial and prove whether any of the statistics are accurate or not.
  7. Every commentator with baseball knowledge has piped in that Urshela is having a spectacular defensive season. Have you been watching the games? And sorry, there is no metric that can measure defense range, the SABR metric UZR? is worthless based on my experience. I think that you have to go all the way back to Brooks Robinson to find a better defensive 3rd baseman than Gio Urshela. We agree to disagree on this but we couldn’t disagree more. But that’s what makes it interesting. Two Twins fans looking at the same player with 360 degrees different opinions. I know, however, that we both sincerely want what it takes to make the Twins a World Series Champion. Heck, I want 1972-1974 Oakland A's kind of success and think it’s possible building around Urshela, Correa, Buxton, Arraez, Polanco and hopefully Larnach, Kirilloff and Miranda although all 3 might not stay if 1 is traded for a top level pitcher.
  8. I’ve sensed that the Twins FO and everybody around believe that Miranda will hit. Latroy Hawkins emphasized this. He’s just in the beginning of his rookie year. Remember how Sano wa s thought to be lacking defensively at third when he first came up. I’ve seen some really poor defensive play from Miranda but also some flashes of a good defensive player. Remember the play at first where he angled into foul territory to avoid collision and shorten the distance to the ball? Painful as it would be, I’d rather trade Kirilloff for a true #1 starter. Also Martin could be available. For me Urshela and Correa should be fixtures for at least the next 5 years with Buxton and Arraez. Lewis and Celestino are both special talents. If they’re going to trade a guy with 5-6 years control, then the #1 coming back, Castillo, Montas or Mahle needs to be extended. I think a World Series Championship is possible this year if Gray and Ryan are moved to #2 and #3. So let’s do it!!!
  9. I believe that Urshela and Correa are two of the main reasons why the Twins have turned it around and are winning now because of their gold glove caliber defense and strong hitting. They are winning players from winning cultures/organizations and should both be extended as part of a potential WS level team. Also add in Sanchez as I read or heard that he also came in and set about imparting "winning culture" habits by talking to some players as needed.
  10. I believe that the Twins will sign Correa t a long term contract and that they can’t afford not to. It’s similar in importance for them to sign Correa to a long term contract as it was with Buxton last offseason. Correa is a franchise player. For those of us who remember, it would be akin to letting Lyman Bostock walk after the 1977 season. Correa likes it here and has expressed an openness to negotiate a long term contract with the Twins. They Twins must extend him and in doing so, they will have a vastly greater chance of winning playoff games and advancing to the World Series and winning it.
  11. I agree, Kirilloff for the long haul and even the rest of the season seems a better bet than Kepler. How about an OF of Kirilloff, Lewis and Larnach when Buxton’s not playing. I like Arraez at 1B. My belief is that there is no better option than a .358 hitter with a .445 OBP (at any position, really). Kirilloff could DH some, especially since Jeffers at DH has been a colossal weakness. And play 1st some but Arraez needs to play every game and bat leadoff. I happen to think a top 2 of Arraez and Celestino would be awesome. Both high average and both very high on base. Depending on whether Buxton can make a big improvement, A top 4 of Arraez, Celestino, Correa and Kirilloff could intrigue. Then Larnach and Sanchez the Urshela. Then you need to fit Lewis in. I believe the Twins should sign Correa long term and play both Lewis and Correa in the same lineup for the long haul. I think trading Kepler well would be a good start. I also love Gordon and think the Twins need to keep him because he’s - and Chris Archer said this recently, even if just dazzled by one game - he called Gordon a 5 tool player. He does have power, when you consider triples and HRs. He generates a lot of bat speed with that whippet quick swing.
  12. Ultimately, I like and OF of Lewis, Kirilloff, Buxton, Larnach and Celestino than any OF with Kepler. I could be wrong.
  13. That trade simulator must have sprung a gasket. No way Laureano is worth that much relative to Montas and Kepler. He has a .691 OPS right now.
  14. You mean Kepler and Martin and not Lewis and Miranda, right? I think Lewis and Miranda have a chance to be the equivalent or reasonably close to it of Gaetti and Hrbek on the 1987 Twins.
  15. I think it’s far less complicated than all that. I think it’s likely his ankle is bothering him again. I thought I heard that mentioned from at least one credible Twins person.
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