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Everything posted by Greglw3

  1. Falvey and Levine 60%. I give the a big part in the injuries because they didn’t do nearly enough to build depth in the offseason. I was hoping for Michael Brantley to be added. They are to blame for constructing a roster where two huge question marks in Cave and Kepler played so much even though both players are deeply flawed. I also was advocating for them to sign a viable MLB center fielder for the inevitable Buxton injuries. And, even though in the minority, I think it was a big mistake to let Eddie Rosario walk for nothing, replacing him with Cave and a struggling Larnach. How does that make the team better? baseball reference Rosario baseball reference Cave We see that Cave went .221/.285/.389 = .674 in 2020 and .188/.253/.302 = .555 in 2021 Rosario is at .254 (66 points higher than Cave)/ .299 (+46 on Cave) / .416 (+114 on Cave). RBIs are 56 - 12. SB 10-1. Cave has been bad two years in a row and so has Kepler. FO fault for not obtaining viable backups. All 3 OF positions were ? going into this season and the front office sat on their hands. Cave should be released and Kepler either traded or slotted for a 4th or 5th OF position. His continual pulling the ball into the shift, refusing to change his approach is a major drag on the potential of the team. All in all, last offseason with letting several viable players walk or trading them, choosing inept replacements for the departed and not having contingency plans for the many question marks equals one of the all time worst offseason in baseball history, much worse than 2019-2020 when they only let Schoop and Cron walk (the start of the decline). I include the signing of Simmons as part of their failure but the failure was so widespread that it’s not as magnified Injuries 10%. With a couple of viable MLB replacements they would have been in about the same position as every other team in baseball. Failure to build depth is mostly on the FO. Baldelli 30%. I’ve watched for 3 years now. I’ve seen Gene Mauch as Twins manager (a freakin’ tactical genius), Leyland, Tony LaRussa, Terry Francona, Joe Madden and yes Paul Molitor - all of them vastly better than Baldelli who overall makes the strangest pitching staff moves and non-moves (take a pitcher out when he’s getting battered instead of leaving him in 2,3,4,5 batters too long so the game is out of reach, often early). Plays the infield in almost all the time, spent the entire year largely eschewing the bunt in extra innings. Sloppy fundamentals. I think Rocco is a likable guy but this is a business and a game where you have to measure up against your peers. If he gets another chance next year, I think he has a lot of reflection and soul searching to do as does Kepler. If he’s back, best of luck since people can learn from their mistakes and improve, possibly a lot. I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s let go but put the chances only at 30%.
  2. Barring an increased risk of injury at SS as opposed to 2B, I offer this: Polanco SS, Twins 101 wins Polanco 2B, Twins ~70 wins I’m not saying that Polanco caused the dropoff or caused the 101 wins but to show what is possible with him at each position. That said, see my response to John Bonnes request for prospective 2022 lineups. My thinking has evolved a little. My response is near the end as of 2 pm Friday.
  3. Batting order vs RHP for 2022 (spot in the order only applies to the primary choice, listed first): 1-Arraez 3B / (Miranda) 2-Michael Brantley LF 3-Buxton CF (Billy Hamilton) (Mark Contreras) (Jimmy Kerrigan) (Gordon) 4-Polanco SS (Gordon) (Maggi) 5-Kirilloff RF 6-Donaldson DH (Miranda) 7-Sano 1B (Kirilloff) 8-Gordon 2B / (Arraez) 9-Garver/ (Jeffers), (Jeffers-> Garver just as likely) / Rortvedt C Top backups either on Twins roster or Saints: Mark Contreras LF, CF, RF Jimmy Kerrigan LF, CF, RF Larnach LF, RF Kepler RF Drew Maggi SS Release Cave Use the money saved by only increasing spending on Brantley and possibly Hamilton as eveyday players to get this starting rotation: 1-Robbie Ray or Syndergaard 2-Danny Duffy 3-Michael Pineda 4-Joe Ryan 5-Bailey Ober
  4. I’m very excited to see Woods-Richardson have a dominant outing like that finally. Maybe his season can be like Brant Alyea’s 1970 season, hot at the start and end but icy cld in the middle of the season.
  5. I agree that Polanco, Gordon and Arraez could fill the bill and Drew Maggi has had a fine season. I would be amenable to having Gordon play the majority of games at 2B. Ironically Arraez’s best position is 3B but with Donaldson increasingly brittle, that could work out. I’m probably in the minority but think Polanco could go back to SS. After all Twins won 101 games with him at SS in 2019. Miranda also is pounding on the MLB door!
  6. Only 2 of 3 of Ray, Duffy, Syndergaard. So, how much would Ray, Duffy, Brantley cost? It would be money well spent! Contreras is at St. Paul so would be making major league minimum. They could trade Donaldson’s salary and maybe Arraez together for more pitching and use Miranda at 3B to help afford the 3 players. Gordon, Polanco, Drew Maggi could cover SS, 2B, Utility. Put the payroll at $155 million. Maggi:
  7. We can surely do better than Thorpe, Jax, Dobnak and maybe Duran (the mystery man!). What if #1 above was Robby Ray and #5 was Danny Duffy. #1 could also be Noah Syndergaard. The offense needs help too. Cave should go. Michael Brantley or Mark Contreras could be good depth in the OF, a factor that the FO inexplicably did not address on 2020-2021 offseason.
  8. Roy Smalley said tonight that he had no doubt that Gant’s stuff is major league stuff.
  9. That rotation would be a good prescription for losing 100 games. Zero chance, I hope!!!
  10. I agree that they can put together a contending staff and I agree that Pineda should be one. I’m pretty sure he’s said he wants to be with the Twins. I also agree with your evaluation of Ober. He looks to have bright future. What I’d like to see Falvey do is rather than sitting back and waiting for players to drop to them, set high goals and go very aggressively for 2 of these 3. Syndergaard, Robby Ray, Danny Duffy. While not a Dobnak fan, I’m open to him in the 5 spot. It remains to be seen if Ryan is a better choice or needs more seasoning. I wish Balazovic could pull it all together because every time I see him, he has really high upside on his breaking stuff. I also don’t think the offense is good enough. Cave should be released. The Twins should try to sign Michael Brantly who could help form a great 1-2 with Arraez. Buxton in cf. Kirilloff in rf. Kepler to 4th OF or traded. They also need to sign an inexpensive defensive stud like Billy Hamilton or me, Greg Allen to fill in when Buxton is down. In the IF, I envision Miranda at 3rd, a SS depending on how much they spend on other players (maybe Polanco). Arraez or Polanco at 2B but Arraez gets his 450-500 AB.. Sano at 1B. Garver/Jeffers and depending on how fast he comes, Rortvedt. His defense could be very very good and I see him hitting eventually. Then, like you said, Winder, Strotaman, Dobnak or Ryan, Canterino, Balazovic hopefully produces a real deal pitcher. Dursn coming back would be a big bonus. I think Contreras and Larnach could help in some role. Possibly even Jimmy Kerrigan. Good analysis. I’m in basic agreement with you that the Twins can contend with the right moves.
  11. All I can say about that rotation is Yuk. They should make an all out play for Robby Ray and as a #2, Danny Duffy. That shouldn’t break the bank but would bring two of the best ERA pitchers to the Twins. Then re-sign Pineda for stability. Final two Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober. Also sign Brantley for LF so the OF is Brantley, Buxton, Kirilloff. Miranda, SS, Arraez, Sano with Donaldson moving further toward the DH told. Jeffers/Garver and Nick Gordon (U). This would all be affordable and show that Twins really want to win. Syndergaard could be a backup for Ray.
  12. I agree, that’s exactly what they have to have, a 1 a 2 and a 3 or 4. My suggestion was Robbie Ray, Danny Duffy and Michael Pineda. Then Ober and Ryan plus improve the offense by signing a LF like Brantley. Kepler is iffy, I think Kirilloff could do a better job. Brantley, Buxton, Kirilloff in the OF and sign Billy Hamilton or Greg Allen to fill in as a defensive stud when and if Buxton is injured, Kepler 4th OF. Cave gone. Miranda, ? (feel like spending? Carlos Correa). Arraez, Sano in the IF with Donaldson at DH. Garver/ Jeffers and please keep Nick Gordon, he has a lot of tools and just needs experience.
  13. Best I can determine the recent White Sox FA signings or extensions to ward off FA are: Adam Eaton Jose Abreau Liam Hendricks Dallas Keuchel Lance Lynn Yasmani Grandal Gio Gonzalez
  14. Yep, time for a change a/la the White Sox of the last 3 years. They have to pay up if they want to win.
  15. I’ll take an optimistic approach. If they can sign two free agent pitchers that both finish with a record 10 games above .500, then Ryan, Ober and maybe Pineda could be .500 as a group. That’s a rotation that’s 20 games above .500. The offense will need new faces ( Michael Brantley, Carlos Correa, Miranda, Kirilloff RF, Buxton) to get those two FA acquisitions to 20 games over .500. I would suggest Robby Ray and Danny Duffy, both with very good ERAs this season. Then if they can significantly improve the bullpen with aggressive FA and trade efforts, they could increase to 25 above .500
  16. I think Viola is a Twin in good standing. He’s been in the booth in a very affable manner with Dick and xxx and been very personable, showing no sign of any bitterness. I read his tweet as a criticism of management and manager, frankly deserved. How do you manage to pull off taking a 101 win team where Schoop and Cron contributed greatly to the Hr record to a 90 or so loss team. How do you take a pitching staff good enough to win 101 games and totally decimate it in two years. How do you make signings as bad as Happ, Shoemaker, trade away Pressley for insufficient return, cast aside 30 HR hitting Eduardo Escobar, just let Trevor May go for nothing, Wisler for nothing, Clippard for nothing, shed Rich Hill, sign Hansel Robles and Colome to replace the relievers they kicked away. They blew it by not signing a legit cf backup for Buxton. And not signing a LF to replace Rosario. The only way I see to fix the mess with Falvine still in place is to sign Robby Ray and Danny Duffy and re-sign Pineda, hope Ryan is the real deal and use Ober. They still have 5 poisitions that are shaky or subpar, LF where Kirilloff may need to play, RF with Kepler with a .211 average. I admit he’s been better lately but he’s had low averages most of his career. Sano has rebounded nicely but will he slump mightily next year before recovering. I hope he’s turned the corner. Buxton’s a question mark only because he rarely plays a half a season. I’m hoping he plays the rest of this season well and stays healthy and they can come together on an extension. Larnach needs to figure out how to handle breaking balls. I think Frank Viola cares about the Twins and is dismayed. I love the Twins. They’ve been the love of my life since I was 8 yrs old in 1964. That didn’t stop me from being at my wits end when Calvin Griffith let Bill Campbell, Tom Burgmeir, Lyman Bostock, Larry Hisle, Dan Ford, Rod Carew, Gary Ward, Dave Goltz all leave in about a four year period. Admittedly that was worse than this.
  17. I know you’re saying this tongue in cheek but yes, I think analytics can help but they are overused to the detriment of quality baseball oftentimes, especially by the Twins. This includes using the shift too much leaving 2b wide open. Other teams are better able to capitalize on that than the Twins.
  18. Frank Viola had a very interesting tweet this morning. In a recent thread, I intimated that I felt the manager and Falvey and Levine should be dismissed. I’ve vacillated on it but since then, the team and outlook seems even worse. I just found this tweet by Frank Viola, one of the Twins greatest pitchers ever to be a confirmation of what I’ve felt this year. Does what Viola says surprise you? Does it carry weight with you? Do you agree? It rings far too true to me. The last sentence of his Tweet is the most significant one "Wrong leadership equals no chance to succeed." That sounds like a call for change to me. I would argue that the failure of Falvey, Levine and Baldelli has been so spectacular that the Twins would be better off replacing Falvey, Levine and Baldelli with the best GM, Manager and and President of baseball operations that they can find. This is a judgement that is probably analogous to the Twins releasing a player that they really like as a person and had high hopes for. It’s a business and winning is the paramount goal. There are way too many baseball moves that they’ve butchered to mention but the sequence that lead to Cave playing a significant role and still starting as we approach September is perhaps the most egregious of all. Not acquiring a better option for Buxton’s backup and a better replacement for Rosario cost the Twins wins. Happ and Shoemaker didn’t help.
  19. Obviously we disagree rather sharply but my opinion is that Jorge Polanco had great range at SS, struggled with throws for half the 2019 season and then noticeably improved. Further he hit better than some Hall of Fame SSs like Ozzie Smith in 2019 and is hitting at a HOF level this year too.
  20. He made a great play at 2B last night which speaks to range. Not every 2B could have made that play.
  21. Offense counts too, Cave has hurt the Twins a lot with his .18x average a very low OPS.
  22. I have to reiterate that I think the Twins would be making a big mistake to let a guy with Gordon’s tools to get away.
  23. The Twins have Jimmy Kerrigan and Mark Contreras who both have played cf. Kerrigan with 17 HR and Contreras had inched over a .900 OPS recently. Go with them over Cave. And Larnach, even with his brutal slump, has outhit Cave this year and it’s likely he has a pretty high ceiling (when thinking about LF). If Kerrigan or Contreras aren’t better then Cave in cf (I doubt it), then the Twins should sign a true backup to Buxton. I’d rather have a Billy Hamilton type #2 on the cf depth chart than Cave, someone of his ilk that plays superb defense. But I think Kerrigan and Contreras have earned a shot.
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