Greglw3

If they re-sign him, it’s a sign they are even more clueless than we thought and have zero interest in upgrading the offense. To me, it’s an unthinkable nightmare. I can’t imagine them sending that kind of signal and doing that to the new manager.

No, no, no, a thousand times no! It was a bad signing and no matter the position, the Twins need better offense everywhere except Buxton and maybe Martin and of course, Keaschall, if he can stay healthy. The dearth of offense has been fatal. It was a bad signing, though I was in favor initially but I was wrong. Jeffers and someone like Danny Jansen depending on whether his option is picked up.

The story, I think from the Twins broadcast booth that Jayce Tingler went to Rocco and suggested the accelerated running game. It’s a shame to have wasted that component to winning so long. I think a great manager who is a brilliant tactician can mean something around +5-8 wins. This is a small group in my lifetime but I firmly believe it for Gene Mauch, Terry Francona and Jim Leyland. From that perspective Rocco was worth - x-x wins, whether that was dictated from the top or Rocco’s head scratching decisions, like playing the infield in about 99% oof the time, eschewing the bunt in late innings when it might have won a game, taking out a pitcher with 7 IP, 1 H and 87 pitches, etc etc. I’m thinking Joe Pohlad, Derek Falvey may straighten up and assemble a decent team after all the turmoil and the upheaval of having to fire Rocco and now bringing in a new manager who they really do owe an honest effort to. And they do know the fanbase is disgusted.

I'm in basic agreement with you. I’m very hopeful on the players you named and highest on Gonzalez. I did do a Google on Luis Arraez 2025 scouting report and found a few surprises, that if true, make him even more of a fit. Might have to consider the source, the Google AI, which seems 80% brilliant, 10% iffy and 10% flat out wrong. I’ll post the Arraez scouting report but wanted to mention that I’m maybe an aberration among current Twins fans, as the advent of the "new metrics" (based on SABR research mostly) and the metrics I and many early Twins fans grew up with kind of create a 'generation gap' of statistical understanding. That is what it is and it’s hard to buck the current lines of thinking but then, when I give my opinion, I have to have my own personal integrity behind it. There are probably a lot of areas where the olds stats and scouting reports might agree with the defensive metrics OAA, Zone, etc and OPS+ but I largely find them misleading and placing too much emphasis on power. This is why I think the Twins can’t hit, too much emphasis on pulling (Kepler), launch angle and launch speed. By way of insight, I grew up on 1970s Twins baseball, filled with high batting averages but only the occasional power hitter like Larry Hisle or Bobby Darwin. Ubiquitous were hitters that hit .280 and above, often over .300 and the Twins scored runs in bunches for most of the 70s behind such hitters as Jim Holt, Steve Braun, Tony Oliva, Rod Carew, Lyman Bostock, Glenn Adams, Mickey Hatcher, Ken Landreaux....almost all hit .300 and many well over .300 but with moderate power. Anyway, here’s Arraez’s scouting report:

I’m pretty sure this won’t be so popular but my economical solution for the Twins would be to sign Ryan O’ Hearn with his .281 batting average and .366 OBP to play LF/RF/1B/DH. Then sign Luis Arraez and his National League Leading hit total and .316 career batting average to play 1B. Let’s not forget that Arraez has hit .354 for an entire major league season, which maybe 1/10 of 1% of MLB players since 1960 have ever done. $12-14 MM / yr for each player on 3 yr deals optimally. Then I’d plug Gabriel Gonzalez into RF if he appears ready in spring. I think he’s a pure hitter. Austin Martin and Walker Jenkins could be in the running for lots of OF at bats also. Worst case, an outfield of Austin Martin, Byron Buxton and O’Hearn would be a big improvement. The long shot, but apparently really talented hitter is Hendry Mendez. I would also set up a competition at SS where Brooks Lee has to beat out Kaelen Culpepper for the SS job. I don’t want to run it back with Wallner or Larnach, most likely.

Funny!

I agree very much with you in the points you made. The idea is to get as far away from this recent ill-conceived Twins way as possible. That’s why I think a proven winner in Scott Servais would be the best choice of this group.

This is a good article but I’d say competent is not a good label for Falvey. You’re right, he’s had a few successes but overwhelmingly more bad moves and has wasted 10s of millions of dollars on below average players, much like diving in the bargain basement record bin when LPs were king. I think he may be just above incompetent but as many tries as he’s had and the total cluster* he’s trotted out in 2025 cries incompetence. Probably some or many will disagree but he showed a bit of competence in going out and getting Tait, Abel, possibly Rodon and the real offensive gem, Hendry Mendez. But then Outman was overmatched at the plate, though I pulled hard for him and he showed flashes on the bases, power-wise and defensively. He looks like a guy they should not plan on. The real strength of the org is the hope that Gabriel Gonzalez, Kyler Fedko, Hendry Mendez, Walker Jenkins, Kaelen Culpepper, Austin Martin bring to the table. Now who gets the credit for all the good scouting and drafting, Falvey or Sean Johnson? I always though it was Johnson but maybe they work together. Falvey needs to not hibernate for 2-3 months this offseason and acquire some offense to mix with all the strong hitting prospects. Without a better offense, the Twins are sunk (so please don’t count on Larnach, Wallner or Kody Clemens. I would be happy, as a minimum to start with and outfield of Martin, Buxton and Gonzalez and if anyone beats one of them out, great! I would have fired Falvey a couple of years ago, definitely after the 2025 season and super definitely if he stumbles around for yet another season in 2026. I like Maddon, Servais and Punto of the managerial candidates - I think they all would run a game much better than Rocco (or was it pre-plan Derek) did. Sorry for using my "response space" for an article but I usually get expansive when answering Twins posts due to all I see is wrong and what I think needs to change (ditch the exit velocity, launch angle philosophy and start putting the ball in play, moving runners, etc.)

Joe Maddon would be the clear best choice, not even close. He is a Hall of Fame Manager and probably one of the top 5 managers of the last 60 years. (Francona, Leyland, Gene Mauch, Maddon would be my top 4). I somehow reckon that none of the group of 5 or 6 so far will ever come close to having the achievements to be a near certain Hall of Fame manager. Maddon is a master strategist, in total command in running a game. To me, there’s zero reason to consider any of these others unless Maddon was the first interviewed and said no.

think he would if promised by Falvey, no pre-planned or any time interference, i.e. let me do what I did in Tampa. I heard he wants to manage again under those conditions but Falvey probably won’t call him.

I like your plan with all the hirings but I think the most important influence would be Rod Carew! Wallner is unusable anywhere, IMO, if he doesn’t start making better contact, stop swinging from the hips constantly and put the ball in play more often. I totally discount wRC+ and OPS+ in his case because those stats are biased very strongly in his direction, ignoring the .204 batting average and the historic low of about 40 RBIs on 22 HRs, which indicate aside from the HR (which were not as a group as impactful to games as Clemens’) means for the whole season, he drove in roughly 5-10 runs on SF, Groundout, 1B, 2B, 3B, BB, HBP. All the while making no attempt at adjusting his approach to mitigate the massive holes in his strike zone. I think he’s a big risk for a team looking to clean house, start over, new approach, different direction, etc. I’d rather try Gabriel Gonzalez there, if he has a good spring due to his monster offensive numbers at 3 levels in 2025. Or sign a 1B who hits like Binentendi in or near his prime. Every position is crucial to fixing this severe offensive problem the Twins have.

Weeks would be a good selection for giving the team a good direction, I think!

I’d choose Joe Maddon, arguably the most effective manager and strategist in MLB over the last 30 years (only Francona and Leyland in his class and neither a likely candidate). It would have to come with a promise from Falvey that he would give Maddon full reign in decision making. Maddon’s formidable abilities as a manager who runs a game extremely well, and as a tactician would be a big improvement over Rocco’s often head scratching decisions. A Google search got me this: Joe Maddon has a strong case for the Baseball Hall of Fame, primarily due to his 2008 World Series win with the Chicago Cubs after a 108-year drought, two World Series appearances, three Manager of the Year awards, and success turning around the Tampa Bay Rays

I agree about the changes to the 13 position players. The Twins need to get back to their roots and have a good hitting team. The farm system offers hope in combination with maybe two trades or free agents. Only sure things for me are Buxton, Keaschall, Lewis and Martin, maybe Jeffers. I had heard that the running game thing emanated from Jayce Tingler going to Baldelli and suggesting it. I hope they keep that up and find a lineup that can win in multiple ways rather than the wait for the HR approach they’ve embraced since the intoxication of 2019! And a really good manager capable of being on top of in game management, strategy and hopefully more stable lineups.

I rooted for Outman like nobody’s business but he just didn’t hit. I think he has to be cut loose even though he showed flashes of defense, speed and power but he hit below .200. Kody Clemens hit .215 and Wallner .204 and was historically inept in driving in runs. For Outman, but all these guys, a 26 man roster spot over Jenkins, G. Gonzalez (possibly the Twins best hitting prospect), Fedko, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Hendry Mendez, Kaelen Culpepper, Allen Roden or a possible traded-for hitter that hits .280-.290 isn’t warranted IMO. I even still think Eddie Julien has a chance. Maybe somewhere else. I think the Twins offense has been a chronic limiting factor for most of the last 5 years with way too many sub .200 hitters and low .200s hitters. I just don’t think you can win that way.. I think the pitching with Lopez, Ryan, Woods Richardson, Abel, Taj Bradley, Andrew Morris is way ahead of the offense which is a five alarm fire. The 8 hitting prospects I named are very exciting, IMO, and I would try as many of them as necessary around Buxton. I think the risk at this critical juncture in Twins history with Larnach and Wallner’s mediocrity and ineptitude respectively is not worth it. I could possibly see retaining Outman at AAA and if he could fight his way back and excel, great.

Bring back Andy McPhail!!! Best was GM ever by a landslide.

And therein lies the rest of the problem with the Twins hierarchy.... short of the "damn we failed to contract the team" Pohlads.

Joe Maddon would be the best on field tactician and run a game by far better than Rocco. Must add hitting but Madden is in a small group of 3 living managers who would instantly solve the myriad quirky ways Baldelli managed games including his lineups. Terry Francona (not available), Jim Leyland (too old??) and Joe Maddon. For me, he way he managed the Rays was flat out intimidating as his opponent. Excellence to the core.

The above league average hitter shows the weakness and depth of the flaw of the OPS+ stat, which rewards hitters with a high slugging percentage very disproportionately vs a play who can really hit, like Austin Martin or Luke Keaschall. I watch all the games, have a long history following the Twins and for a key cog in a team’s batting order, that was one of the worst offensive season’s in Twins history. I’ve never seen a player with a bigger hole in his swing than Wallner and he made no attempt to adjust but soon from the heals all season long. Bringing back Larnach and Wallner would conjure up the old saying, "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. I don’ thin the Twins can take that risk. I agree a trade for a .280+ hitter with .360+ on base skills would be a good start to fixing this long broken offense. Plus we have Walker Jenkins, Gabriel Gonzalez (who hit .300 at all levels this year for a cumulative .329), Kyler Fedko, Emmanuel Rodriguez at AAA who I would start developing over the two incumbents who haven’t worked out if you’re a team aiming for excellence. They also have 21 year old Hendry Mendez, acquired in the Bader trade, who hit very well at Wichita, well over .300. And we have Kaelen Culpepper. Allen Roden may pan out. Even though I really rooted for him, Outman looks iffy, at best, but I’d still bring him to spring training. If the Pohlads would step aside and new owners replace the inept Falvey and fire Baldelli and his coaching staff, a significant turnaround could be possible.

I’d say, acknowledging that this is a very painful period in Twins history, equaled only by Calvin Griffith’s mass exodus allowed in the 70s, that it is a good thing. I firmly believe that being a fan that gets the most out of fandom is sticking with it through thick and thin, which I’ve done from 1964-5 until today, having seen my first Twins game as an exhibition game in 1964 as an 8 year old at Tinker Field in Orlando. Despite the painful periods, there’s been a lot of highs. Rod Carew and his 4 seasons of .350 - .388 averages in a 5 year period. Joe Mauer in his prime. The incomparable Herb Carneal. Roy Smalley’s color commentary. Getting to watch the brilliant Gene Mauch. Loving Lyman Bostock. The 1977 team, the best offensive team I ever saw (and probably the worst pitching team). Even now, when the Twins seem to have no cohesive, winning approach to hitting at the MLB level, I enjoy Brooks Lee, Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis, Austin Martin, and very excited about: Gabriel Gonzalez, Walker Jenkins, Kyler Fedko, Kaelin Culpepper, Hendry Mendez, Ka’lai Rosario, maybe Gallagher and Armstrong, maybe Kendry Rojas and even possibly Aaron Sabato. Hoping for the best with Abel and Bradley. And I really love and believe in Zebby Matthews! I still watch every game, even though it can be very frustrating but I do see Lewis growing, Lee a few chases from being a good hitter. So, that’s my long winded endorsement for the value of hanging in there, as tough as that is!

I think WAR is a totally useless statistic and even Bill James agrees with me. It’s wildly flawed by including the advanced defensive metrics, which are a recent "experiment" that produces absurd evaluation after absurd evaluation. When Correa was having his best defensive season here, he ranked in the 18th percentile for OAA, one of the worst. Correa simply said, "of course I have a low outs above average, we have a flyball staff". My first clue was when 2019 Eddie Rosario had a 0.9 WAR. On further research, I found that his WAR was 3.1 but the formula subtracted all but 0.9 for some dubious, neophyte defensive metrics that attempt to measure the impossible - a players range, arm and all the other nuanced factors that go into making a good defensive player. I’ll take a scouts (especially a cross section of scouts) evaluation any day, using the 20 to 80 scale on myriad factors. The other weird thing is Wins against Replacement. Who is this fictitious player? Is it someone on the players team who would be next in line? Or a AAA player? It’s so nebulous on its face. And crazily enough, I’m not sure if it was Rosario or not but I looked at the same player and he had a full 1.0 difference in his WAR from one publisher of WAR to another.

Don't forget the 77 Twins had one of the worst pitching staffs ever assembled, which is why their .282 team batting average was a huge factor in them finishing 7 games above .500. My main point is, it doesn’t have to be Arraez but the Twins have to stop fielding teams with as many as 5 .220 or below hitters. I especially like Gonzalez and Culpepper and Jenkins is maybe a little behind them.

Lies, damned lies and statistics and I got an A in every statistics class I ever took, including some pretty intense stuff in Predictive Analytics at Northwestern. Arraez hit .354 for a whole MLB season with a .393 OBP, .861 OPS. OPS and OPS+ are both distorted by SLG% and those who play the role of setup man, leadoff or #2 hitters don’t need to hit with power. OPS or OPS+ should never be one size fits all statistics. WHo’s the last player in baseball that hit .354 for a whole season? Focusing in 2025 with a month left is very misleading. Arraez full season batting averages are .334, .321, .294, .316, .354, .314, .299, .318 and the partial .283. Luis Arraez has a lifetime batting average of .316, vastly better than any of the current Twins and they’re all of the same generation. Lifetime .363 on base %. I would underscore the failure of the SABR descendent statistics with those claiming Matt Wallner is an above average hitter, hitting about .210 with tons of runners stranded due to his rarely connecting bat and ball. Someone just told me that, that Wallner is an above average hitter. These horrible statistics that require nuance to properly interpret them are misleading a lot of people. Wallner illustrates the folly of OPS+, a very biased stat for HR hitters, with his historic 20 HR and 35 RBIs. As Corey Provus mentioned that’s the lowest RBI total for 20 HR since the advent of the RBI stat in 1920. 15 solo HR, mostly worthless. With the other 5 being at least 2 run HR, he must have about 8-10 RBI on non-HRs, a truly horrible record. .209 average, almost no ability to drive in any meaningful runs and he has a OPS+ of 120! The formula ignores context, even as extreme as Wallner's and as such is laughable to me. My point is in 2025, Luis Arraez has 49 Runs Batted in, RBIs, 14 more than Matt Wallner. To score runs, you have to have hitters capable of driving in runs. Even Brooks Lee has 56 RBIs to Wallner’s 35 RBIs. Power is overrated. The Twins have proven that over the last 5 years. The resulting low batting averages have killed the Twins offenses, Max Kepler, Jake Cave, Kody Clemens, Matt Wallner, Michael A. Taylor, Christian Vazquez all hurting the Twins. I’d like to see Gabriel Gonzalez who’s hit .300 at 3 levels this year get a chance as well as Kaelen Culpepper, Kyler Fedko, And Hendry Mendez with Jenkins when he’s ready. The Twins need to expunge all the low batting averages and replace them with situationally adaptable hitters.

Very well written and long live batting average and RBIs!!! Maybe you have to have experienced it, but my beloved 1977 Twins with batting averages of .388 (Carew), .336 (Bostock), .338 (Glenn Adams) and .302 (Hisle) taught me the value of a team of hitters who could hit for high batting averages and the HRs in that group were 14, 14, 10?, 28. Triples were off the charts with Carew 14 and Bostock 12. Speed and the ability to manipulate the bat of those 1977 players is like Arraez for his career. They called Carew’s ba, 'The Magic Wand'! I’d prefer any of those guys to 2025 Wallner with all the K and low batting average and unprecedented 20 HR with only 35 RBIs!!! What, maybe 8-10 RBIs all year sans HR???!!!

Bill James wrote an article in November of 2021 where he completely picked apart WAR with an intelligent and systematic analysis. It’s a wildly flawed statistic and should never be applied to two totally different types of players. In fact, it shouldn’t be used at all. Bill James concluded that instead of WAR, it should be known as WAG for wild ass guess. Read his article. Yes, the Twins should bring back Luis Arraez. A 3 time batting titlest is just what the Twins need. They’d score a lot more runs with his low strikeout, high contact approach.