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Greglw3

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Everything posted by Greglw3

  1. Greglw3
    For the two thumbs downers and the laughing person, from Baseball America, for gosh sakes! DaShawn Keirsey = BEST DEFENSIVE OUTFIELDER in the Twins system!
  2. Greglw3
    Google result, not sure the date .462 OBP in camp, 3 steals and .883 OPS! Hitting against the same pitchers as Wallner. Does Baseball America hold credibility? Does his camp performance work for him or against him?
  3. Greglw3
    "it's unclear to me that Keirsey ranks higher than "average" in this realm." I don’t think you've seen enough of Keirsey, Jr. Ask those who know him very, very well as a player like Tom Froemming, Seth Stohs, Aaron Gleeman, John Bonnes, Nick Nelson....I bet a survey of all of the above would yield at lease 3 good to great reviews of Keirsey’s defense.
  4. Greglw3
    Your eyes are far more skilled than the unsophisticated, immature and NOT scientifically validated range factor numbers. His wRC+ should not be compared with non-leadoff hitters as the emphasis there is a higher batting average and getting on base. Besides he had 81 RBIs as a leadoff hitter last year. I don’t let any of the new numbers sway me but believe in MLB scouts and the 20-80 grading system for each skill.
  5. Greglw3
    I just googled "Will DaShawn Keirsey make the Twins out of spring training 2025?" and landed on your article. First, I’m a huge Keirsey fan. I also like Austin Martin a lot. Why not find a way to keep them both? That’s a lot of speed! Very painful to say but if the Twins won’t give him a chance in his prime athletic year of 27 years old, they should set him free to a team that can use him. It would be a LaMonte Wade or Denard Span trade kind of mistake, IMO but it’s not fair to Keirsey. I noticed in today’s game he has an OBP well over .400 for the spring, has stolen some bases and dazzled with the glove. He’s already dominated AAA. There’s little doubt in my mind that Keirsey is 1 of the 26 best players but they have to give him a chance.
  6. Greglw3
    No, definitely wasn’t suggesting ahead of Castro, and it’s a tough fit, but I’d sure try to make it work. Julien would be a possibility although I like him a lot, but all their prospects can’t be what I thought they were gonna be.
  7. Greglw3
    Sands is a definite keeper, to my surprise last season. Tonkin, I’m not quite sure why they value him so much but maybe he’ll help.
  8. Greglw3
    I'm with you all the way on Keirsey! It’s time!
  9. Greglw3
    Better would be Keirsey, they need his defense, speed dimension and if he hits, it’s a big win. He reminds me of their approach with Lamonte Wade, Jr. He deserves a real shot in MLB, in my opinion.
  10. Greglw3
    The new defensive metrics are wildly unreliable. Anyone who’s see extensive footage of Keirsey knows that he is an ace defensive cf, steals bases in buckets every year and has a really pretty, sweet swing. I like both Martin and Keirsey. They both would be infinitely better than Margot was, or Jake Cave or Joey Gallo. Further last time I checked Keirsey hit LH as well as RH.
  11. Greglw3
    Rocco Baldelli, a veteran baseball man as a player and a manager said, "The seventh-year manager sees Martin as someone who has “the ability to [be a defensive star], and the work ethic to do so.” Forget the "advanced" defensive metrics. Anybody that knows the game: a scout, a manager, a former accomplished player consistently gives a different message than the neophyte immature defensive metrics. Nobody’s done double blind or any t-test to prove that what the new defensive metrics are saying. They are totally counterintuitive to me. I’ve heard from fans and [lazy] writers that Gio Urshela was a below average defensive player, that Correa was having an off defensive season a couple of years ago because OAA didn’t like him, he was in the 18th percentile and people eat this crap up. Correa to seconds to analyze it correctly. I’m playing on a fly ball staff, of course I won’t record as many outs as a SS playing behind a ground ball staff. The eye test hs taken a beating but if you’ve watched decades of baseball, loved and studied the game obsessively and have a frame of reference, having seen Allan Trammell, Ozzie Smith, Roy Smalley, Mark Belanger, Campy Campaneris, Freddie Patek etc., your eye test is way better than the counter-intuitive advance defensive metrics (which weren’t used for 150 years for good reason. I see that Correa is the best defensive SS in my lifetime save possibly Ozzie Smith and no advanced defensive stats can change that. I think Rocco is right. Austin Martin is a superior athlete who made some out of this world catches last year and will get better. Plus he puts the bat on the ball and can steal bases.
  12. Greglw3
    I found this on a Mariners based site, which may be an indication of what France is capable of - credit Ben Ranieri (SODOMOJO powered by Fansided). March 2022. * https://sodomojo.com/2022/03/14/seattle-mariners-expect-ty-france-2022/ * Maybe this is why Rocco seems so confident in him and the foot fracture was a factor last year.
  13. Greglw3
    I think we could talk for 5,000 hours and still be in disagreement. I will say Cron, School and Cruz were all accomplished. Cruz was very good for a long time. Cron whacked 20+ homers the year before and has had some good power years since. Schoop had been good and was good, then fell apart. I don’t agree that Falvey has brought in anywhere near the caliber of that trio since.
  14. Greglw3
    If you think that his most recent season is less predictive of the season to follow than past seasons, you may have a point. I’ve seen many late bloomers over my decades of following baseball. Nelson Cruz for one. Many, many others including Mickey Tettleton, etc. It’s a matter of taste. I am and have been for a couple years a Jurickson Profar fan and you, obviously are not. WHat’s your solution? Do you want to go with the same team that was 15 games below .500 for an extended period in crunch time, using 3 rookies in the rotation with horrid offensive struggles MINUS Kepler, Farmer and Thielbar? I think the Twins are gonna have to draw an inside straight or close with their young players, Lee, Lewis, Miranda, Rodriguez, Keaschall, Julien, Morris, Festa and Zebby, Keirsey Jr, Martin to be winners in 2025 unless Falvey gets up off his can and makes some real trades to improve the team. I do like every one of the young guys I named but usually experience counts in MLB and young players struggle. Maybe, Lee, Julien and Lewis have that out of the way. I, for one, yearn for the outlier Falvey, who only once in his 8 year tenure, went out and kicked ass in the offseason, bringing in almost 100 home runs in C.J. Cron, Schoop and Nelson Cruz. Since, for the last 5 years, the Twins average 81.8 wins per season with the two following the 101 win season being dreadful and last year being a huge disappointment. Now, this historically dreadful offseason so far. I’m actually an optimist with the Twins, I would have never lasted from 65 to 25 as an unrelentingly avid Twins fan if I couldn’t take the lows of Griffith post free agency, Terry Ryan part 2 and this mediocre Falvey reign so far. Logical, no, An in-love-with-the-Minnesota-Twins-since-very-young ultra fan. Yes. Sean Johnson would be my #1 pick for most important organization member due to the farm system being a huge bright spot. My disappointment, is, I’m afraid, born of my high aspirations for the Twins and profound disappointment with the Happ’s, Shoemakers, Mahler, Bundy’s, and our 0 for 30 pinch hitting friend.
  15. Greglw3
    Profar 2023 and 2024 over .280 BA combined. His 2024 was truly outstanding, 668 Plate appearances. That’s valuable. Way beyond any Twin. 94 Runs scored. One of three seasons with at least 82 runs scored. 85 RBIs, more than any Twin in 2024. 10/13 SB, a real roadrunner for the Twins. .380 OBP. Who on the Twins came even remotely close to that? 14th in the MVP voting. None of the 8 Twins were even within an eon of 14 in MVP voting. All Star. 76 walks, Mauer-esque. One hundred and fifty eight games played. Which of the 8 = question marks on the Twins played 158 games? My point is Profar has shown flashes before, was thought highly of. 24 Home runs, one of three career seasons 20 or more HR. Profar’s season in LF was staggeringly superior to Larnach’s work. In fact significantly better than any Twin in an area where they’ve been weakest, hitting. They could have signed him by now. I read Falvey had a taker for Paddack’s 7.5 million salary but wasn’t getting much back. And the Twins likely are getting up to $15MM out of the record 311 MM luxury tax collected in 2024 plus up to $15 for markets that suffered lost revenue due to TV contract issues. From Baseball Almanac: Was Profar a top prospect? No prospect this side of Mike Trout has a better minor leaguer resume than Profar.hen for an encore won MVP honors in the low Class A South Atlantic League in 2011 after posting an . 883 OPS at age 18.
  16. Greglw3
    Celebrate the Palindrome! Two lyrical lines that are palindromes from the group that’s a palindrome!
  17. Greglw3
    I immediately thought the same thing! It’s gotta be somebody good. I wonder the Twins will sign Austin Hays or Ramon Laureano or trade for Arenado?
  18. Greglw3
    Gregg, Excellent article, which explores lots of very important nuances! It’s an important topic as nobody really knows if Falvey/Zoll have been directed to a particular figure, nobody really knows what the upper limit they could push is and, as you alluded to in a very revelatory exploration/study, nobody even knows what the Twins salary commitment is as of now. One thing you touched on, that nobody mentions, is that the Twins are the recipient of what would appear to be significant competitive balance money. The Dodgers are paying over ~ $103 MM for their 2024 spending, the Mets $97MM and the Yankees 62.5 MM. Also, Phillies, ~14 MM, Braves $14MM, Rangers ~ $11MM, Astros 6.5 MM, Giants 2.4 MM and Cubs 600 K. A record total of 311 MM in luxury tax payments!!! [Credit Reuters Dec 24, 2025 So we talk about, we can free up $12-17 MM by trading Paddack and Vazquez. But wait, half of the $311 MM is paid to teams needing revenue sharing. Half is paid for player benefits and retirement funds. Straight Arrow News cites ~ $15 per team. Bingo! There’s the $15 MM the Twins need to sign a solid major leaguer, my preference is Jurickson Profar, some disagree with me but it’s a significant factor to consider. PLUS, teams that lost media revenue are able to collect up to $15 MM out of a total pool of $ 75 MM [awfulannouncing.com]. (Media Disruption Distribution) How much of that are the Twins receiving? It’s not easy to find the Twins exact share of revenue sharing so the documented ~ 15 MM is the best I can do, consistent with the complexities you encountered in your fine analysis! I appreciate your article, from one Greg to the other Gregg! https://www.reuters.com/sports/report-3-mlb-teams-paying-bulk-record-311m-luxury-taxes-2024-12-24/#:~:text=The tax rate goes up,to $241 million next season. https://san.com/cc/record-9-teams-will-pay-mlb-luxury-tax-totaling-311-million-in-january/#:~:text=The cumulative $311 million tax,revenue sharing to stay competitive. https://awfulannouncing.com/mlb/teams-payments-lost-media-rights-revenue-15-million.html
  19. Greglw3
    I want nothing but the best for the Twins, which is why I would be much more aggressive. I’ve just been frustrated with the FO since the 101-61 season that they could have built on, instead averaging 81.8 wins per year the last 5 years. Not horrible but what happened to the GM that got Cruz, Cron and Schoop and reaped the benefits. He now seems like hibernator in chief. Sorry. I do have to give precedence to the very strong seasons turned in by Profar and Iglesias and I think WInker’s a hitter and this team can always use a .360 OBP. I’m an on-base moneyball believer. I grew up with the Twins in the 1970s when they did nothing but hit, hit and hit some more with Braun, Brye, Holt, Oliva, Carew, Bostock, Glenn Adams, Hisle, Cubbage, Bobby Darwin, Smalley. It’s super tough watching this FO leave the offense vulnerable year after year. If we can get good health from the coming stars in Lee, Julien, Lewis, Rodriguez, Wallner, Keaschall, then we’ll surprise!
  20. Greglw3
    It is a good point and a bit more realistic look at what the Twins should have been and should be looking to correct.
  21. Greglw3
    It's the team that has talked to him and had him working out there this off-season, if reporting is correct. The Twins ambiguity communication machine hasn’t made it clear yet as far as I can tell. He can probably improve there as Julien did.
  22. Greglw3
    Cleveland acquired Luis Ortiz from Pittsburgh, a starter with an ~ 3.20 ERA in about 120 IP last year, they resigned Lane Thomas, they sign Carlos Santana and signed Shane Bieber for maybe half the season. Plus Cleveland drafted Travis Bazzana with the 2024 #1 pick and he’s thought to be close as a 2nd baseman. Tigers added Cobb and Gleybar Torres and could be in on Flaherty and/or Bergman. KC brought back Lorenzen and added Cavan Biggio, Jonathon India and Joey Weimer and extended Michael Wacha for 3 more years. The White Sox got the good haul from the Red Sox, added Cam Boozer and Bryce Wilson from the Brewers 5-4 4.04 last year. The Sox signed Omar Narváez.
  23. Greglw3
    Miranda, Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Duran, Jax, Sands. I like Martin as a likely solid major leaguer. I think Keaschall will very likely be good. I personally like DaShawn Keirsey a lot. I’ve watched this whole off season and Cleveland, Detroit, Kansas City and White Sox have all made more significant moves than Twins. The Twins have a lot of needs offensively on a team that’s been inconsistent and sluggish, at best, for the last few years , sprinkled with sub .200 batting averages and low .200 batting averages and the genius acquisition of a .177 hitter. The Mike Ford acquisition was weak. My plan, made in November, had the Twins doing a modest amount in acquiring Profar (still out there), Jose Iglesias, who hit .338 last year to back up Correa and Jesse Winker to play OF and DH, the Winker of the .360 OBP last year, shedding Vazquez, Paddack, Castro’s salaries and I came in at 129.xx MM. Do you disagree with me on any of the 8 question marks? If so, which of the 8 are you confident will likely have relatively healthy and productive seasons? My other positives for the offseason are Cartaya, Gasper (due to his high OBPs and .366 AAA avg and .477 OBP in 200 PA). I think the recent acquisition from Oakland, Armando Alvarez has some chance. I also think the Eiberson Castellanos Rule 5 pick was a good pick. My objection is to not shedding any salary or acquiring major league talent like Profar, Iglesias, Winker. These 3 would help the Twins offense a lot. If the Twins add some real MLB level offensive talent before spring training I’ll up my grade from F upward. Just Profar, Winker and Iglesias, all still available would move it to C+ or B. SO, we’ll see.
  24. Greglw3
    I think everyone could agree that if nothing else is done, it’s the worst offseason in baseball and deserves a solid F. I see the Twins with a question mark at every position. C-Two substandard catchers return. Both are question marks, both with horrible BA last year. LF-Larnach has a .236 lifetime BA. Definite ? CF-Buxton is always a ? due to his missing a colossal amount of games virtually every season. RF-Wallner would be my pick as most solid but he had to be sent back down last year for K ineptitude. IF he performs as in 2nd half of last season, he’ll be a ? positively answered. 3B Lee-Can he stay healthy and can he rebound from rookie hitting struggles SS-Correa-Can see stay healthy for the 1st time in 3 years? 2B-Lewis Can he stay healthy and can he overcome a horrid 2nd half slump 1B-? I do like Martin and Keirsey as insurance but they carry their own ? My overriding point is how does the Twins FO feel happy with 8 question marks. Some will be answered positively but highly unlikely all and maybe only 1/3. That’s why they get an F for their miserable offseason.
  25. Greglw3
    I think after the HR success of 2019 that Kepler got into pull happy mode and that destroyed his offensive game. It may be worth noting that 3 players who have taken a dive in their offense due to the Twins over emphasis on Home Runs, launch angle, launch speed, may include Kepler, Sano, Austin Martin (who’s hitting cratered when he changed his swing as prescribed by the Twins for more power and hitting recovered when he went back to his old approach). Noteworthy too that the Twins over emphasis on HR has lead to some dreadful strikeout totals the last 5 years and to a horrific signing of Joey Gallo, he of the .177 batting average and near 50% K rate.
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