Always disingenuous to analyze a relief pitcher when you take out his bad appearances.  Of course he will look good when you do that.  The fact is he gave up those runs.  Plus he gives up too many inherited runs.  I think he is just what his stats for the season show.  He's just a below average relief pitcher.  

1 hour ago, Whitey333 said:

Always disingenuous to analyze a relief pitcher when you take out his bad appearances.  Of course he will look good when you do that.  The fact is he gave up those runs.  Plus he gives up too many inherited runs.  I think he is just what his stats for the season show.  He's just a below average relief pitcher.  

The idea was to show how much those two appearances affected his overall numbers compared to how much it affects the numbers of other relievers.  I used Funderburk because he has a similar ERA.  And Funderburk was less affected by his worst two performances and Jax even less so.  This illustrates that two performances are skewing his overall effectiveness.  Relievers are more volatile from year to year and it’s usually a bad appearance or two is why.  While the bad appearance is a part of their record.  I’m trying to show how his pitching is overall.  By comparing the damage done from 2 worst appearances and overlapping with percentage of appearances with earned runs, you see that Theilbar is closer to the effectiveness of Jax then he is to Funderburk.  As I said at the end of the post,  it’s not a full proof way to evaluate.  But it does help normalize the numbers so the two appearances don’t young what else he’s done. 

No! Just look at his last outing. He's a specialist, right?  Vs the Giants he gets the RH hitters but if memory serves me the 2 LH hitters he faced reached base. If your specialty is getting out same handed hitters and you can't do that, then there's problems. He has not been effective this year. 

1 hour ago, Whitey333 said:

Always disingenuous to analyze a relief pitcher when you take out his bad appearances.  Of course he will look good when you do that.  The fact is he gave up those runs.  Plus he gives up too many inherited runs.  I think he is just what his stats for the season show.  He's just a below average relief pitcher.  

I sometimes wonder why Rocco is reluctant to pull any pitcher (starter or reliever) in the middle of an inning.

Then I see the inherited runner stats.. whoa. And not just Thielbar. Okert, Staumont. Funderburk. Ish.

I love Thielbar...don't get me wrong. To say he has been ineffective so far would be wrong. he's not going to be the Thielbar that we all thought was lights out last year. Is he cooked? I don't think so. don't forget he was the only left handed reliever we even had before the season started, and I still trust him more than Okert or Funderbirk.. Out of 8 or 9 bullpen guys we need at least 2  be effective lefties. if we see the road ahead we know Varland or Paddack are ending up in the pen. I would have Thielbar out there no matter who else is. Dude knows how to pitch.

Also...if I am correct....a reliever must pitch to three batters. however, if you bring in a ...say lefty to pitch to a lefty with 2 outs....you can replace him with another reliever at the start of the next inning. Maybe we should look at Baldelli and his staff for mismanaging this entire aspect of the games?

Thielbar has looked better recently. Age is bound to catch up with all athletes, its an outcome that can't be changed. Caleb will fill a purpose the rest of the season, just not that reliable late inning guy he has been. I still trust him more than Okert or Funderburk.

48 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Thielbar has looked better recently. Age is bound to catch up with all athletes, its an outcome that can't be changed. Caleb will fill a purpose the rest of the season, just not that reliable late inning guy he has been. I still trust him more than Okert or Funderburk.

I like Okert to start an inning. He is much cleaner than when he comes in to clean up a mess.. we have nobody who excels there. 

Twins relief pitchers have been horrible at not allowing inherited runners to score - an MLB worst 45% (49/109 inherited runners) have scored. But the 3 lefties are the worst offenders; Thielbar 57% (8/14), Okert 54% (7/13) and Funderburk 47% (9/19) have combined to allow 24 of 46 inherited runners, 52%, to score. I don't know if this is because they are brought into face a LHB with runners on and don't get him out and then have to face a bunch of RHB or what, but this needs to be corrected or it will cost the team in close games and possibly the play-offs. 

My personal opinion is that all 3 nibble at the edges too much and get beat when they have to throw it in the zone. Challenge the batters early and make them chase a pitchers pitch with two strikes instead of the other way around.

On 7/17/2024 at 10:23 PM, Charlie19 said:

I love Thielbar...don't get me wrong. To say he has been ineffective so far would be wrong. he's not going to be the Thielbar that we all thought was lights out last year. Is he cooked? I don't think so. don't forget he was the only left handed reliever we even had before the season started, and I still trust him more than Okert or Funderbirk.. Out of 8 or 9 bullpen guys we need at least 2  be effective lefties. if we see the road ahead we know Varland or Paddack are ending up in the pen. I would have Thielbar out there no matter who else is. Dude knows how to pitch.

Also...if I am correct....a reliever must pitch to three batters. however, if you bring in a ...say lefty to pitch to a lefty with 2 outs....you can replace him with another reliever at the start of the next inning. Maybe we should look at Baldelli and his staff for mismanaging this entire aspect of the games?

Baldelli has nothing to do with Thielbar’s  ineptitude! …… pretty sure Caleb would confirm that. Professional Athletes not performing & that getting put on their Manager is old.

Thielbar can get guys out if he’s on - like pretty much every reliever in the game. His % of “on” has dropped off considerably. When your stuff is on fine margins you can’t afford to walk people or get behind 3-0 when entering games and there’s been too much of him putting himself in a hole.

Either of the other lefties have had their bad days as well - Okert’s ERA is 3.86 though……seems that tells the story of effectiveness.

On 7/18/2024 at 5:42 AM, Patzky said:

I like Okert to start an inning. He is much cleaner than when he comes in to clean up a mess.. we have nobody who excels there. 

That's an old school Tom Kelly thing like, "let them clean up their own mess". I just think if you are going to use the new rules...you should use them. I am sure (correct me if I'm wrong), that if you have one out and 2 big lefties coming up...bring the lefty(if you have ANY) I am sure you could bring Jax or Alcala for the start of the next inning. These are high leverage spots, and that's what they get paid for

On 7/19/2024 at 10:52 AM, JD-TWINS said:

Baldelli has nothing to do with Thielbar’s  ineptitude! …… pretty sure Caleb would confirm that. Professional Athletes not performing & that getting put on their Manager is old.

Thielbar can get guys out if he’s on - like pretty much every reliever in the game. His % of “on” has dropped off considerably. When your stuff is on fine margins you can’t afford to walk people or get behind 3-0 when entering games and there’s been too much of him putting himself in a hole.

Either of the other lefties have had their bad days as well - Okert’s ERA is 3.86 though……seems that tells the story of effectiveness.

I did not say it was baldelli's fault....I meant maybe they can manage the bullpen better. We all know who pulls the strings