jmlease1

agreed. Which is why Luplow will probably go and Gordon and Alcala will get arbitration offers. We know they like Alcala and Gordon and $1M in arbitration is nothing in the big picture. It would be another matter if they were due to get $3M or $6M in arbitration, but they're not, so it's only going to come down to the 40-man or the 26-man spots. Right now, Alcala and Gordon have value, even with their injury season(s) and the Twins aren't going to dump assets until they absolutely have to.

I have no idea how he got a nod as a Gold Glove finalist; he hasn't been a quality defender in 5 years, including this one. And Rosario was 2-12 in this year's playoffs (both of which were in a loss), so let's calm down about him coming up in big moments. Twins have adequately replaced him in LF, with Matt Wallner, and produced more value before that with Larnach and Kirilloff. The only way to say they haven't is to pretend that 2018 Eddie Rosario was the same guy in 2019 and 2020...and he wasn't. The reason people like me keep banging back every time someone brings up Rosario like this is we're tired of the fiction. He was a pretty good player with the Twins who had some solid seasons in his prime, and as he slowed down and didn't improve his patience at the plate became less reliable and valuable overall, which happened to coincide with him becoming more expensive. That's not hating on Rosario, that's just fact. I really like the possibilities of Miranda plus Julien filling in if Kirilloff isn't ready to go. It means Severino doesn't get pushed before he's ready, and keeps a depth piece in place, but also gives another opportunity to a player whose struggles last season were clearly tied to injury. Miranda has shown flashes of real ability and as a RH-bat can help protect some of our LH hitters. A little positional flexibility for Julien will help keep his bat in the lineup as well.

Moving Vazquez would be a poor choice. Because of his contract coming off a poor offensive season, he's not going to bring anything significant back, so all it would be is a salary dump...and even then the Twins would have to eat a decent portion of the contract to get someone else to take him off their hands, so how much do you really save? And then you need to get a backup in place, because even if you want to ride Jeffers a little more heavily you just can't count on a catcher going more than 120 games these days. If they go with Carmago for that role, they have no options if he's not ready to handle it, and pretty screwed if Jeffers goes down with injury. Might they look to move Vazquez after next season, if Carmago looks ready/continues to show things? Sure. And hopefully at that point he's rebounded a little more value on the offensive side and on an expiring deal would be much easier to move: not much risk in a 1-year deal. The defense is still good from Vazquez, and he can be a quality backup for Jeffers next season that can add more value than this season. If they really need to save payroll, Farmer or Polanco are more likely options to be dealt: both would bring back a better return and could be moved without having to retain any of their salary, and both are in positions of better depth from the team.

They really didn't. He was maybe the 7th best regular on that team. It has nothing to do with liking him or not (I actually liked Eddie quite a bit when he was a Twin). And regardless: he wouldn't be playing 1B for the Twins even if he was somehow still here, so throwing his name around in a discussion of who fills in at 1B if Kirilloff's injury pushes his recovery into next season is just weird. Twins 100% made the right call in declining to offer him arbitration, and it's worked out just fine for them.

It's definitely an issue, because it means his superior arm doesn't play as well. Correa used to be able to position himself deeper to get to more balls and use his arm to gun them out. The rule change favors quicker/faster players (and hitters, a little). I do think one thing keeping Correa's defensive reputation high is the lack of errors and that lack of big play creation for the other team via a major gaffe or wild throw. And that certainly matters: even if you're not getting to more balls, not making mistakes (especially in big situations) really does make a difference...but it's probably a bit harder to quantify because you can't presume that every throwing error leads to a big inning by the other team. I think it's likely his numbers tick up next season if the plantar fasciitis is no longer an issue, but with the rule changes limiting his positioning, it's going to put a ceiling on how much it goes up. He's still more than solid there defensively, and it's awfully nice to have that level of consistency even if he might not be adding as much high end defensive value any longer.

There's no wrong answer: these are all great! I think if I had to pick one it's either Royce's first Grand Salami or Wallner's GS. Goodness, those were big-time no-doubters. Maybe there's a little extra spark when it's a rookie doing it?

I think this regime values depth and is making it a priority to have players with positional flexibility and ensuring that the team is giving as few innings and ABs to bad players as possible. I do think they have a preference for veterans in bench roles over young players and believe in rotation depth. They're definitely less interested in investing money in the bullpen; they'll put assets in there, but I wouldn't expect to see big contracts handed out to anything beyond retaining someone like Duran. It will be interesting to see how the front office looks to have similar depth options in 2024 to what they did in 2023; I think they have more internal options this season than they thought they had at this point last season, and definitely more than they had in 2022. That may impact their thinking on how to approach free agency and the trade market. yes, there's still a bit of a glut of infielders on this roster, but there are also guys with injury histories. I think they're likely to try and add another starter, either through retaining Gray/Maeda, if they can make the contract terms work, and if not I can definitely see them looking for another guy, so as not to put too many eggs in Chris Paddack's basket and/ot Louie Varland's. It's not an indictment on either player, I just think they assume they're going to need at least 7-10 guys making starts to get through a season, and are more comfortable having another veteran in the rotation rather than rolling the dice on Varland/SWR/Festa being ready on Opening Day or coming in when someone gets a ding and needs 2-3 weeks off. that plus, they know that while they had excellent health from starters this season overall, they still had 8 pitchers make 5 or more starts...and right now I have no idea who that 8th guy would be for the Twins. Randy Dobnak? He was healthy, but not good in AAA. Winder, Sands, and Balazovic sure look like they're transitioned to the bullpen, though it's still possible one of them could get tried again in a starting role.

sigh. duplicate! I do think the best and most likely options to protect against Kirilloff not being ready to start the season are internal ones.

Not that Eddie Rosario plays 1B, or anything, but since leaving the Twins he's accumulated 0.6 bWAR over three seasons while making $26M. While Larnach hasn't managed to solidify his place in MLB, he's still generated 2.0 bWAR in MLB for the Twins over the same time period, while making less than 1/10th of the salary and playing 40% less. Kirilloff's injuries have really held him back from being a significant contributor, but he's been roughly as valuable as Eddie Rosario (Kirilloff had 0.7 bWAR) over this same 3-year stretch, while making the same kind of money as Larnach. So let's review: the Twins got 4 times more value out of Larnach and Kirilloff over the last 3 years (combined they played roughly the same number of games as Rosario) while saving $20M in payroll (to date). And now we have room on the roster for Matt Wallner, who played roughly half a season and was more productive (2.2 bWAR) than Rosario has been in any season since 2018, and more productive in half a season that Rosario has been in the last 3 combined seasons. So yes, there's been adequate return: we have more than replaced Rosario's production. What we haven't gotten yet is superior performance from Larnach or Kirilloff, but there's still time and if Kirilloff gets healthy it's quite likely that he surpasses Rosario's production next season. But hey, I would expect Atlanta to decline the club option on Eddie for 2024, so he'll be available.

There's only so many people that get to be "the guy" for a franchise and be the ultimate decision-maker and designer (non-owner category), and it would also come with a pretty healthy pay bump. I could see Levine taking it if offered. Those chances don't come around that often, and I suspect he would like the opportunity. Don't really want to see him go, I think he's been an important part of the success the Twins have had since he came with Falvey, but good organizations don't object to someone getting a promotion, and it's a good sign for your organizational culture if other organizations want your people to come work for them in more senior positions. Worry when people leave for laterals or downgrades: then you know things have gone sideways...

I think Miranda will get another opportunity with the Twins, and should if he comes back from the shoulder injury. He should practice reps at 1B and 3B as soon as he's cleared for drills, because he looks like a fine option to spell Kirilloff with his RH bat, or even jump on the job if Kirilloff isn't ready to start the season (possibly platooning with Julien at 1B). Maybe Brooks Lee is ready to be the first infielder up if there's an injury next season, but Miranda has the hit tool to make it a race. Royce missed time even after returning from the 2nd ACL tear, so Miranda should be ready to go, and look for his opportunity. I think if everyone is mostly healthy to start the season, Miranda starts in AAA, but he will get a chance. If he's hitting in AAA like he did before, then he'll either force his way back up to MLB or be one very nice trade chip. i haven't forgotten about Jose Miranda and neither has the Twins organization.

yes, but every team "needs" an MVP-caliber LF. I mean, what are we talking about here? the choice can't be between what we currently have and getting an MVP candidate. No front office can realistically produce that.

I think some of it depends on how long into the season the twins think Kirilloff's recovery might go. (and this is presuming already that he won't be ready in spring training, which we're way too early to actually know) I suspect that if the Twins are sure that Kirilloff is going to miss time well into May or longer, they'll make an attempt at a veteran signing on the cheap (like they did with Solano this year) to provide insurance and not spend their depth at the start of the season. That's not unreasonable, and it worked out fairly well with Solano who got on base and showed good contact skills, even if there was little pop left in his bat and he wasn't particularly good defensively. I do think this FO likes to keep the floor high and I agree with the methodology of giving as few ABs to bad players as possible. But unless the recovery for Kirilloff is going to be really lengthy (i.e., extending well into the summer), I think the better choice is to look internally. There's some assumption of risk there, but if you have Julien prepare in the off-season to play at 1B (while still working at 2B) and do the same with Miranda (while still having him work at 3B) and Severino...I think there are enough options in-house to cover things. Heck Chris Williams could come back on a minor-league deal (giving him an extra $100K probably keeps him in the organization and doesn't break the bank one bit) and be an option. And frankly, I think I'd rather go this way even if Kirilloff's recovery is going to go well into the season. Why? because I do think this FO is a bit prone to the sunk-cost fallacy when it comes to veteran players. (most teams are, so I'm not bagging on them that much for it) Look at how Gallo managed to stick on the roster for the full year. What I don't want to see is them taking a flyer on a vet who turns out to be washed up, but sticks around long past the sell date because there's no need for the roster spot yet, and they keep hoping he'll figure it out, blah blah blah regressioncakes. I'd rather give the chances on the younger guys. Miranda has shown flashes of serious talent. Julien deserves to play every day. Severino has been hitting the snot out of the ball in the minors and could be an interesting hitting talent (gotta love switch-hitters on the bench!).

As noted above, for the 2023 hitters leaderboard at BP, they have Vazquez 8th for the Twins with a 0.8 WARP and Jeffers 12th with a 0.5. Which is relevant in talking about where PECOTA landed for their predictions on Twins players; if their final WARP calculations are so out of whack from where fWAR and bWAR landed those two players, it makes me question their metrics period. Maybe the punishment for Jeffers taking some ABs at DH is more significant than I thought? But Vazquez had a staggeringly bad year at the plate and Jeffers was excellent. I haven't seen any defensive metrics that put Jeffers so much further below Vazquez as to make up that difference, let alone exceed it.

The fact that Petty reached AA at age 20 is impressive development. 18 starts is close to a full season's worth (20-22 is a full mix for a guy who doesn't miss time for injury or being skipped out of caution) His lack of innings is worrisome much in the same way some of us are concerned about Marco Raya for the Twins. Petty was always talented, which is why the Twins drafted him in the first place, but he's still another 2 years away from entering an MLB rotation for more than a cup of coffee (it seems likely that he'll spend next season in AA and 2025 in AAA pushing for an chance in MLB, if he stays healthy and doesn't have any developmental bumps). What's especially interesting about Petty is how few HRs he's given up. If he can maintain a HR/9 rate under 1, then I'll be very impressed. (he gave up zero dingers in 2023! I'm sure that's a bit of a fluke, but so far he's been terrific at keeping the ball in the park. It will be interesting to see if he can continue that as his innings increase) Gray fit the Twins window better and was more of a sure thing. The Reds were in rebuild mode and could afford to wait and absorb the risk. The fact that the QO was an opportunity for the Twins makes this a big win on the trade regardless of what Petty does because of the additional value it brings in from sources outside of the Reds. Clever way to make a win-now move while still getting future investment.

I'll admit to not understanding how Jeffers still finished below Vazquez in BP's WARP.

Pitcher wins don't tell you very much about how good of a starter they actually were. Are you suggesting Sonny Gray is likely for TJ? Why? His injury issues over the years haven't shown elbow problems. Good luck signing anyone of Gray's caliber that is 25-26 for a 2-3 year contract!

I feel like "Finding a front-line starter to replace Sonny Gray" and "Gamble on another high-upside starting pitcher" are an either/or proposition for this team...unless you are willing to consider Chris Paddack as an option to fill one of these roles. I just don't see the Twins adding more than one starting pitcher with the rotation currently looking like Lopez, Paddack, Ryan, Ober, and Varland. I think it's very possible (even likely) that they will look to add a veteran to compete for that last starting spot, but seems much less likely that they'll add 2 (unless they convince Varland that his future is in the bullpen). It's hard to know exactly how good Paddack will be as a starter next year but he was solid pre-injury for the Twins and his stuff looked excellent in his bullpen stints this fall and with a healthy offseason to prepare he should be ready form Day 1. Lopez and Ryan are locks, and Ober should be as well. Ober was really good and showed it's possible for him to stay healthy. I'm more interested in looking for internal options to shore up 1B and provide insurance for Kirilloff, unless they get an early indicator that he won't be ready for spring training. Miranda seems to be an obvious fit with his RH bat, but I would also be telling Severino to work on his 1B skills in the offseason (Julien too). Making sure they manage CF effectively will be key. They were smart last season bringing in Michael A. Taylor to ensure they had a quality fielder regardless of Buck's health. I feel like the roster is tighter now, but Castro's emergence as an effective defender basically anywhere but catcher certainly helps, and Austin Martin might be ready to step in as well. If they bring back someone like Taylor, they probably need to move an infielder? (Farmer or Polanco seems the most likely choice; both have real value as trade candidates, but also play in areas where we have depth. Julien can slot in at 2B for Polanco just fine, and we'd still have Lee, Martin, and even Miranda as depth options to come up to deal with injuries; Farmer is a backup for us who could start for other teams and I think the front office would be comfortable with Castro, Lewis, or maybe even Lee backing up SS and we have options to support 2B and 3B as well.) I'm not sure what the right choice is, and suspect the twins won't know either until December when they get a better feel for where Buxton's knee is.

Really rough for Twins hitters. I don't want to read too much into this: while we've seen some players use the AFL as a springboard to bigger things, other players have gone down there and done little but still kept right along on their prospect course. But it's still disappointing to see really none of the hitters doing well.

And now the Astros are getting handled by the Rangers. Astros are getting no production from 2B, SS, C, CF, and RF; have no bench, and now that Valdez has been found out they need Urquidy to dominate again or they're going to be down to one starter they can trust. reality is, the Astros got a massive performance from Alvarez (who continues to destroy everyone) and had a few bursts from other parts of their lineup (Abreu, Altuve, etc) to squeak by the Twins. Regarding Farmer: it's going to be interesting to see what the Twins do there. He's been a gamer for them, hits lefties well, and can slide into a lot of positions well defensively. Moving him would open up opportunity on the roster, but he was also a solid veteran presence and the preferred backup to Correa. I guess it would really come down to what kind of value you could get for him; I doubt I'd want to move him for an A-ball reliever and that kind of return would suggest a salary dump that would be...disappointing. The Twins depth in the infield with Correa, Polanco, Julien, Lewis, Castro, Kirilloff, Miranda, Lee, and Martin does give them some room to use Farmer as a trade chip.

I really don't get the people who are definitively stating that the Twins have to move on from Buxton. I assume they're saying it because they think he's damaged goods and will never play a full season or close to it again. So...just exactly how are they supposed to move on from his guaranteed contract? Do you really expect them to just eat $15M a year for the next however many seasons? If you're arguing they're supposed to trade him...until he shows he's healthy, other teams probably aren't interested in his contract, so not only are you not getting anything in return right now, in fact you're probably having to take money back or pay off some it ongoing. Alternatively, if there's a real trade market, then other teams (who would have to have him do a medical to complete a deal) would have to think he's going to be able to play. This isn't fantasy baseball. "Just move on from this guy" doesn't really work when you have someone signed to a substantial long-term deal. But again, with the people pushing this narrative there is this whiff of contempt for Buxton's injuries coming off the comments, as if he's morally culpable for getting hurt that I find very strange and more than a little toxic.

This. I generally think Rocco is fine as a manager. But I've also felt that baseball managers are frequently overrated for their actual impact on a team. (at least from an in-game, tactical sense) There's a handful that are superior, and a larger handful that aren't very good, but most of them fall into the middle where if their players are good, they look good. I do think one of the areas a manager has the biggest impact is in the clubhouse, and that's the area that's easily the most difficult for fans to evaluate, at least until things go south and the leaks start a-flying (by then, the deal is usually done, I'd say). Right now, Rocco by all appearances has the support of both the front-office and his players, with good professional relationships. That's a good thing, and it stayed that way even during the prior two disappointing seasons, which is often when the cracks appear. I'd say he's ranged from average to above-average in his time with the Twins. Moving on from him probably accomplishes little.

Cutting down on the Ks is the easiest and most simplistic answer. Getting more consistency in the team's offense will likely take more than that, but subtracting Joey Gallo from the lineup probably won't hurt. Better health would go a long ways: a healthier Buxton & Correa are both likely to hit for higher averages next season, even if both are still likely to have a big chunk of strikeouts as part of their stat lines. More time from Polanco & Lewis will step the averages up as well. Jeffers had an excellent season, but there's also a real likelihood of regression on his part (that BABIP suggests he got a little lucky in addition to his good work). He could be a contender to actually K more. Replacing Michael A. Taylor with Austin Martin could make an impact as well; Martin is definitely a higher contact hitter and less K-prone, but presuming he'll do well in his first tastes of MLB might be putting the cart before the horse. Despite all the Ks, the Twins still finished the season 10th in MLB in OPS+. The team did fairly well in baserunning last season, but has room to grow with Lewis & Julien being on the team from Day One and also getting more opportunities, along with better health from someone like Buxton. More stolen bases and taking some extra bases while still maintaining their quality success rates will also help keep runs flowing next season. Julien has shown real ability to swipe a bag in the past, and Royce certainly has the wheels for it. A little more focus on situational hitting, a little better health, running a bit more, no more Gallo...the Twins will likely still K more than some folks find acceptable, but they should also do a little better overall offensively. they were pretty strong in the second half of the season and no one that's expected to be a significant offensive contributor returning should be looking at immediate age-related regression/fall-off.

It's a pretty good and fair list of questions so far. I assume in part 2 there will be some things about the rotation and the bullpen (as there almost always will be). I tend not to worry about the concept of too many guys for some positions, like the Twins potentially have for the infield. These things do tend to sort themselves out in time, either through injury or ineffectiveness...or someone seizing the day and taking a position over through superior play. And while I'm as big a fan of Brooks Lee as anyone, he did not exactly crush AAA as a hitter, he's barely more than a full season in the minors as a pro player, and it would hardly be a sin if he starts next season in AAA with Royce Lewis starting at 3B in MLB. I tend to think Bonnes is right that there won't be a big RH bat added to this squad, for all the reasons stated...but I do think the team also still likes Miranda and I'm also interested in how Severino might fit into this equation as well (he's a switch hitter but looked very solid hitting from the right side this season). I suspect Severino's future is at 1B and while I don't expect him to start the season with the Twins, I do think he's got interesting upside as a hitter and will be good depth in AAA.

I'm very much hoping that this addresses the knee issue and that Buxton will be able to come into training camp fully healthy and ready to go. Regardless, I think the team will be careful to make sure he gets regular rest and DHs to try to make sure he gets through the season healthy and ready to go when the playoffs start, assuming the team is back in contention again (as they should be considering their talent level and their competition in the division). I think what bothers me the most about some of the Buxton commentary is how many people seem to treat his injury issues as if it's a personal and moral failing. As if by being a highly paid player they should now be immune to injury and if they get hurt than it's "eff that jerk". (The Mauer comparison is probably apt in that we saw similar scorn heaped upon Joe for his injuries, as if he wanted to get hurt or something.) If there's one thing I'm pretty certain of, it's that Byron Buxton ain't dogging it. If anything his desire to play and try to help the team probably leads to him not going on the IL soon enough. (Much like Sonny Gray will always say he can go another inning, Buxton would probably always say "yeah, I can play" if asked. "I'll be ready to go tomorrow, I'm sure of it!" lol) That's commendable, but not always helpful. The Twins have to prepare for next season to have backup options in place if Buxton's knee doesn't respond like we hope. Maybe that's bringing back Michael A. Taylor, maybe that's trusting in Austin Martin, or maybe it's finding a way to keep Nick Gordon or an Andrew Stevenson type around in the organization. But there's no question in my mind that the Twins are a better team with Byron Buxton playing, and I hope he can patrol CF next season, slam some HRs, and terrify the occasional OF into screwing up a relay because he flew out of the batter's box at Warp Factor 9.