jmlease1

Games played is a ridiculous metric to use when comping a starter against a reliever. And I'm sorry, including spring training stats from 2023 is meaningless. Graterol has only thrown 106 innings since the deal to Maeda's 173. is that a fair comparison? They took a risk on the potential injury. It paid off in 2020 and crapped out in 2021. But we desperately needed a starter in 2020 and because we had Maeda in the rotation that year we won the division. (we would not have won the division with Graterol replacing Maeda on the roster) BTW, Graterol was on the injured list twice last season, missed time for injury in 2021...shouldn't the Dodgers have seen that coming? Graterol is a nice reliever, but hardly game-changing. To put him into context, Graterol in 2022 (Probably his best season as a pro, when you consider health, effectiveness, and production) was much more than Griffin Jax. Graterol had a bit better FIP & ERA+, Jax pitched more innings, had a better K/9 and contributed more bWAR. Their WPA (a useful tool for comparing relievers) was basically even. The injury may end meaning the deal wasn't as great as it could have been for the Twins, but they hardly got taken for a ride. You have to give up something to get something, and in the pandemic season Maeda pitched like the ace people on this board keep screaming for.

Why? Maeda was great for us in 2020 and we needed him. Graterol has been a good but not great relief pitcher. (nothing else in the deal really mattered; Raley is out of the Dodgers system and Tanner Dodson doesn't look like anything...certainly not any better than Carmago) both teams got what they wanted, but I'd still trade relievers for starters every time. We'll see on Maeda. I expect him to be the 5th starter now, not the staff leader and it's always hard to know with spring training numbers because guys are sometimes just working on stuff. I would guess that absent an early injury, he's the guy who might miss a turn early in the season when we don't need that 5th guy. Maybe he'll be able to sharpen it back up with a few more games under his belt, or maybe he gets pushed into the bullpen in favor of Ober, Varland, or Woods Richardson. It is one of the nice things about the way the rotation is shaping up this season is there's no need to keep someone in there on scholarship. the depth isn't just for injuries.

Which is why the Twins traded Berrios. His value was high, the Twins didn't see him re-signing, and so they moved him. but they waited until not just his value was high but also when they were closing in on decision point for him. 1 1/2 seasons left of team control. they made a similar move on Pressly: high value, closing in on decision point. With Berrios you had rumblings that he wasn't going to sign, with Pressly you probably had the issue of he would have commanded more than the Twins are interested in paying for relievers. Polanco is a very different case. After 2021 (his supposed "max value" year), Polanco still had 4 years of team control available at well below market rate. Sure, the Twins could have gotten a lot of value for Polanco if they had put him on the market, but a) would have also lost a lot of present day value, b) assumed a lot more risk, and c) torpedoed opportunities to rebound quickly. If Polanco has a mostly healthy season (and missing a week or two out the gate won't change much about his value) he'd still command a pretty big return with two below market options remaining on his deal in the off-season. It might make sense to deal Polanco, with Royce Lewis returning, Brooks Lee and Ed Julien rising quickly, and Jose Miranda already arrived. But the time to make that move is next offseason, not 2021. (and saying they missed the window because he got hurt last year is 20/20 hindsight. Polanco had just come off 3 seasons in a row where he played a full season; presuming he'd get hurt in 2022 isn't the sort of guess you can realistically make)

Rodriguez is probably projected as more of a power tool guy, than a contact/hit tool player? DeAndrade might be a fun player to track this season to see how he develops.

Bullpens are a challenge. but overall, I agree with the Twins philosophies on building one. they clearly don't think this is an area where spending big money in free agency money gets you good value, and considering how fungible relievers are I generally agree. They don't want to have a Designated 9th Inning Pitcher (formerly called a closer), because they want their best bullpen guys to be firemen who can take out a team's most dangerous hitters late game, even it's the 7th or 8th inning. I absolutely agree with that! they definitely believe in giving guys who flamed out as starters or couldn't stay healthy in the role a chance in relief and shown success that way and I'm also a huge fan of the method. And they'll churn through back end bullpen guys during the season to figure out who they can count on, and it's shown pretty good success there too. Right now I feel ok about the bullpen. there's some high end talent there, there are guys that have proven success in the role, and they are definitely guys with upside. there are also question marks...but it's going to be rare not to have them. JMO. Having Duran at the back end is awesome; he's an absolute weapon. Jax and Thielbar had good seasons last year and there's every reason to believe Thielbar should be good again and a real possibility that Jax might improve. Alcala and Lopez have high end talent for sure, and I would argue Moran does as well with the awesome changeup. the last two spots have the most questions. Hoffman is interesting, but wild. As a middle relief guy to see what he's capable of he's an interesting option. He's certainly worth looking at to see how he converts over from starting and whether his spring training numbers translate. Pagan is the guy where I wonder if the front office is stuck in the ol' sunk cost fallacy. maybe they've "fixed" him, but maybe they've just convinced themselves that they can get something out of a guy they traded for, even after a pretty awful season from a guy who has had 2 good relief years out of 6 and none in the last 3. I would have moved on from him, just to save the psyche of twins fans from a guy who at best seems pretty fungible, but I could be wrong. It's interesting that Nick makes mention of Joe Smith as a troubling jack of judgment related to the bullpen. Smith was pretty good for the Twins the first 6 weeks of the season, and was doing what they signed him for: getting ground balls. The wheels started falling off the wagon, but the Twins still cut bait on him rather than hope he might regain his form (probably waited a little too long, but it's always a little tough with relievers to be sure with the small sample sizes) and even with his midseason collapse, he finished the year with a positive WPA. The Pagan decision-making is much more concerning than how they managed Smith IMHO.

Here's the thing though: is the goal to maximize value or to win games? After 2021, Polanco's value was super high...but the Twins were trying to figure out of they were in a rebuild or rebound situation. And while 2022 didn't go like they wanted, it was mostly injury related and the team was in contention for the division all the way until September before the wheels fell off. It seems unlikely that any return on Polanco would have provided MLB-ready talent, making the roster even thinner and less competitive. Thielbar is a 36 year-old reliever, and while he's coming off an excellent season, he's unlikely to bring back value equal to what he's going to provide the twins this season. The bullpen right now is pretty decent, with some solid pieces (Jax, Thielbar) a stud in Duran, and several guys who have question marks/variance (Alcala, Moran, Lopez, Pagan). Dealing Thielbar isn't going to bring back a player who can slot in to the bullpen right now. even with his value as high as it's ever going to be, he's still a 36 year-old reliever and it'd be very surprising to get anything more than a C prospect for him (likely an A-ball pitcher)...and that's the same deal that's going to be available at the trade deadline if he's pitching well and the Twins aren't contending. KC's mistakes in not trading were more related to their veterans rather than their prospects, though. they kept Alex Gordon & Whit Merrifield past their sell dates, even after it was clear that the team was in a rebuild. Mondesi had a good half season at age 22...if you're rebuilding you need to keep your young guys to see if you have a core to build around. I'm not sure it was obvious that they should have dealt him at that point. But their bigger mistake was in prospect development and draft evaluation, where they couldn't turn those highly rated/drafted prospects into significant MLB players.

I root so hard for Royce Lewis. I really hope he gets all the way back and gets to maximize his talent. If he doesn't, it won't be because of a lack of effort or heart! Everything I read about him, everything I hear something from him it just screams "Good Dude".

Here's hoping for good healthy in the twins rotation this year, because there's definitely a lot of talent there. It's easily the deepest Twins rotation I can recall; no one is in there on scholarship and there's no desperate veteran signing that we hope isn't washed up either. The minor league depth is good with Ober, Varland, and Woods Richardson...but it thins out after that to unproven guys and veteran retreads, but you can't expect to have 5 quality MLB starters waiting in AAA. The good part is after having years where we needed to sign 3-4 starters just to have a possibly functional rotation, we're nicely loaded up this year with a good design for next season even if the free agents all move on with Lopez, Ryan, and Paddack already being in place and at least one of Ober, Varland, and Woods Richardson likely to be ready to be a full time guy in MLB in 2024.

Cleveland should be very good again. The Josh Bell signing was exactly the kind of move they've needed to do for some time and with their payroll they really should have been in on a guy like Gallo as well: they need more offense. Ramirez is great, Gimenez had a breakout year, Kwan had an excellent rookie season, and Naylor had a nice breakout as well. Their pitching pipeline has continued to roll and is good enough to compete with anyone. They've also got one of the best managers in baseball, one of the few that is truly a difference-maker. They were a bit lucky last season: their pythagorean tips that one off, they were great in one-run games last season, and they were very healthy compared to the rest of the league, and with several young players having breakouts they could be subject to some regression. but they look like the team to beat in the AL Central right now. I think the Twins can make a run at them, but they should be a very good team.

Continual health issues? He was injured last season, but healthy enough the previous 3 to play in 94%, 92%, and 94% of the Twins games. In 7 seasons he's missed significant time twice (I'm skipping his 2 "cup of coffee" seasons, but he was plenty healthy those years in the minors). i think you've got a little recency bias going on here. I like the twins plan for the DH spot: unless you have a Nelson Cruz who is a dominant hitter and has no defensive position, there's little gain to be had in slotting someone in there every day, and better chances of maximizing your lineup and roster if you move guys through there based on matchups, injuries, and rest needs.

well, Polanco was injured last season. The previous 3 years he played a full season. So I wouldn't put Polanco in the "perpetually injured" group yet. Most of this seems pretty normal to me. While I would love for every player to be 100% healthy, playing in spring training games to ease the Twins fan's psyche, it rarely goes that way: guys pick up nicks and strains and bruises in camp, and guys who are coming off surgery have setbacks. So far, it doesn't look like anything major (nobody is slated for another surgery, unlike with some teams). There seems to be a perception from some fans that the Twins are hiding something by not providing detailed schedules or something for each player and daily updates on whether each player is meeting some set of benchmarks to be ready for Opening Day, but the reality is there's zero benefit for the team and players by doing that. Whatever added support they might get by giving information-hungry fans something they crave right now would be wiped out the minute one player misses something or takes a day off from swinging and the finger-pointing begins and the same cadre of fans demanding total information starts screaming at them for lying. This stuff isn't linear, and setback will happen...and some of them are also going to be nothing more than a 1-day hiccup. Just remember what Vin Scully said: "He's listed as day-to-day, but aren't we all day-to-day?" I'm not panicking. Losing Polanco for extended time would stink; when healthy he's an all-star caliber player, our 3rd best position player. but if he misses a week or so in April it won't break us. Is Kirilloff going to break camp and go north? Maybe not, might need a little more time...but he also doesn't appear to having any kind of real setbacks, which is good news coming off a significant surgery. Nick Gordon rolled an ankle and people freaked out that he was going to miss a month and here we go again, blah blah blah injurycakes. he's already back. Everybody try to breathe.

The Wild & Wolves are an important part of this equation; having pro baseball, basketball, and hockey all on the same network made it more attractive to cable and satellite systems and positioned it to command a better rate. if that splits off? That influences streaming as well. Much easier to sell a streaming service that bring all three sports to the table than just one.

My point was less about the article than the comments, both on this article and elsewhere. They should be prepared for him to miss time, but solutions based on him missing months are premature, and solutions designed around him being hurt all season or no longer being a Twin seem foolish.

I'm really surprised at how many people seem ready to throw Kirilloff on the trash heap. When he was right (admittedly, hasn't happened for long enough) he was lashing line drives and really punishing the ball. He's a little behind schedule coming off a fairly radical and unusual procedure. That's not a massive deal: he's been swinging the bat and hasn't been shut down in spring training. He just might not be ready by Opening Day. So the most likely outcome is Gallo plays 1B against righties, Solano plays 1B against lefties, and Nick Gordon or Trevor Larnach slides in to LF against righties (and Gallo, who has relatively neutral splits, jumps back to the OF against lefties). That should be fine for a couple of weeks. There's nothing that says Kirilloff is going to need months, literally nothing, other than Twins fans assuming the worst must be true. I'm unenthusiastic about moving Miranda over; he wasn't great at 1B and would probably be best served to just slot in at 3B every day. It's waaaaay too early to look at making a deal for 1B, especially with the options the Twins have. Ed Julien is a player I like a lot, but he's never played above AA. Let's calm down a little. (Same with the people ready to drop Brooks Lee in the lineup already, a dude who has barely played at AA)

I think you're cherry-picking a little here, calling out his struggles in certain months and then using his aggregate in others to downplay his successes. Correa had a slow start, but he was great in May and June. His first half of the season the OPS was .803; the second half was .866. He had essentially 2 months where he struggled at the plate a bit and 4 months where he was good to great. Those august and september games absolutely mattered: the Twins were tied for the division lead on Sept 4th (BTW, Correa had a double and HR in a win against the ChiSox that day). Not his fault the injuries got to be insurmountable and we were starting guys like Jake Cave and Mark Contreras in the OF and Sandy Leon was catching. He did his best to carry the team offensively when everyone else was dropping like flies. I think Correa is going to have a very very good year. all-star quality. I expect the defensive stats to tick back up a bit (I think he's a player with a lot of pride and we know he looks at advanced stats) but I also think he's going to be damn good at the plate. I think the numbers will be pretty similar to last season, but with a bit more power behind it. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he compiles an MVP caliber season. He's talented, driven, and focused. He's a really smart player who looks for flaws in his game and figures out how to eradicate them. And I think he'll want to stick it to SF & NY a little.

If Max Clark is the best player available at 5...sure. That's what I want from the Twins at this pick: best player available. Yes, there's some system needs at various positions, but with a top 5 pick I want them to take the best, most talented player available regardless of position. You can try to address system shortages in later rounds, but you should never reach for a player, or talk yourself into a player because you don't have much in the pipeline at that position.

assuming he continues taking walks like he normally does, anyways. but I agree: they'll happily pick up that option and either plug him in for another season or deal him because that number for a player of his age coming off a season that productive is worth that kind of money (also presuming the defense stays good)

It's very easy to say "trade him for a durable player", and much harder to actually to do it. There's now guarantees whomever we would get back in a Buxton deal would be any healthier. but we certainly won't get back anyone as talented, and frankly it's unlikely we'd get back anyone who provides as much overall value even with Buxton's limited games. Buxton put up 4 bWAR in 92 games...and definitely had stretches where he was struggling due to the knee even when he was playing. The hits will come for the Twins offense if they have average health instead of disastrous health, but even with last year's injury problems the Twins were MLB average in runs scored last season, 11th in hits, and 10th in walks. The offense died last season after everyone got hurt, not because of Buxton's batting average. i love Nick Gordon, but on no planet was he the Twins best hitting OF last season: his OPS+ was 117, and Buxton's was 135. he was healthier, not better. (the the problem with Kepler is he puts the ball in play too often with weak contact and doesn't barrel the ball up nearly often enough to make up for all those bounce outs to 2B) Our depth was tested last season and we failed, which is why we signed Gallo & Taylor. We literally started guys like Jake Cave and Mark Contreras in the OF last Sept. (along with Celestino, Wallner, Billy Hamilton...we churned through 12 OFs last season! 12! And that's without counting Royce Lewis' unlucky start. In 2019 it was like 8.)

the Kepler situation is complex. He's a fine defender in the corners and probably stretched at this point in CF, but the range and arm profile very well in RF for him to add value. But goodness he had a rotten year at the plate in so many ways. 2019 is looking very much like a fluke year, so any expectation that it's going to be repeated somehow (shift or no) should really be thrown in the trash. I think the baseball Savant numbers are very instructive: the max exit velocity shows that Kepler can absolutely crush a ball, but the Avg exit velocity, Hard-hit %, and Barrel % shows that he just didn't do it often enough. His K rates and BB rates are fine, but when he does actually swing at a pitch and make contact he's been too inconsistent in really driving ball and doing damage. Now, how much did the busted toe hurt Kepler even after he came back? Maybe being fully healthy plus the shift rules will help him enough to make him viable as a hitter, but I'm still concerned about his inability to make consistent hard contact. It was easy for fans to turn on Sano when he was piling up the Ks, but Kepler has been a less productive player on offense even with 500 additional ABs and Sano's last season being an utter catastrophe (12.3 Offensive bWAR vs 11.8 offensive bWAR) and took less crap for it, even though Kepler's career OPS+ is significantly less than Sano's. It may have been less irritating for some to watch Kepler bounce out to 2B, but it wasn't effective. Kepler was absolutely overwhelmed last season by fastballs, for the first time in several years. was that injury, or was that age slowing him down? he's going to have to show he can catch up to the heat and handle sliders in the zone, because I'd bet the early book on him is going to be "no slop". If he can't get it going again, I'm sure Wallner & Larnach would love a shot. Wallner has sort of the opposite problem of Kepler: he hammers what he hits, but might not connect enough. Is he Adam Dunn or a lefty Brent Rooker? Larnach is the better bet to me to follow on. He won't cover as much ground, but he's got a great arm for the corners and will get to more balls than people think. And healthy, Larnach can hit more consistently than either Kepler or wallner, I think.

I wouldn't think the ChiSox fanbase is feeling all that great about their offseason (other than dumping LaRussa). Clevinger is still under investigation, wasn't good last year, and has been healthy basically once in his career. Abreu was easily their 2nd best hitter last season and Benetendi seems unlikely to come anywhere near replacing that for a team that was below average on offense to begin with. Better health might make a difference with Jimenez, Robert, and Anderson but I wouldn't expect Grandal to play a lot more games at 34. But as much as their 2022 season was hurt by their injuries on offense, their pitching staff was pretty healthy overall. But already Hendriks is going to miss time (good luck to him on his fight), Clevinger might miss time (and based on his track record will miss time even if he's not suspended), Lynn is old enough that you always have to wonder and last season pitched fewer innings in any non-COVID year since he was a rookie. the depth looks thin, the system hasn't been super productive, and they're spending a lot of money on the bullpen when they need some help on offense. They were definitely a bit lucky last season (27-16 in 1 run games is part having a guy like Hendriks slamming the door, but it's also a little luck. They were outscored last season but finished .500 that also some luck) ZiPS and other projection systems are seeing this too.

Very interesting point, and I will admit, I completely missed this fact. For some reason Gallo has always seemed older to me in my head, maybe because Kepler signed with the twins so very very young.

Really good compilation of the rotations over the last 25 years. I might quibble a little with the rankings, but I'm not sure it makes that much difference if one is rated 11 or 13 and so forth. I would probably downgrade the 2020 group just because it requires an awful lot of projection to comp against the others, and injuries have wiped out so many other promising rotations before. The 2006 group feels like the greatest missed opportunity: Liriano was so electric before his elbow unraveled, Johan was dominant, and it felt like something special might be happening. (the team also had Joe Nathan at the peak of his powers with some good bullpen depth, Mauer & Morneau were rolling...Terry Ryan kinda failed this group, though as his veteran dumpster diving completely crapped out: batista, white, nevin, sierra...none of them worked.) oof, the 2012-2013 seasons were rough. what a terrible rotation! I like to think now we would have given Liam Hendriks a shot in the bullpen before giving up on him. but just a rotation bereft of talent. veteran retreads, no young guys stepping up...just a miserable experience. I'm amazed Glen Perkins had 36 games he could save! It'll be interesting to see where this year's crew ranks. they're very deep, which is not something you can really associate with many of these rotations over the last 25 years. There were definitely groups with higher top-end (Johan Santana at the peak of his powers was the best pitcher in baseball) but even with 2004 Lohse wasn't all that good as the 4th guy. (kind of amazing how healthy that rotation was, though! 4 guys started 135 games between them! they only used 8 guys total, only 6 of them threw more than 2 starts! Too bad that team couldn't hit; Mauer was hurt, Morneau wasn't ready, Gardy refused to platoon Jacque Jones, Kubel's knee exploded...)

While I'm fine with banning the shift (it's a little silly IMHO, but if it increases offense while reducing the whining then whatever) but I don't care for the "infielders must have their feet on the dirt" bit. Trading bloop hits to the OF for slow rollers in the infield seems like a wash to me. Let guys stand where they want if they're on the correct side of the base. It's really nice to not have to worry about SS in the near term. We've churned so many guys through at the spot in the last 20 years that it's great to have Correa locked in as the guy for a while. I expect the Twins will continue to draft "shortstops" every year and keep the flow of middle infielders flowing in the system. Hopefully one or more of them will be legit options defensively if and when Correa needs to slide down the defensive spectrum (with his arm, he'll be a fine 3B if it becomes necessary). I'm interested to see if Noah Miller will hit enough to make it, because so far he seems to be a legit defender there.

They don't. Gaetti's Gold Gloves don't exactly line up with his best seasons defensively but the stats show that he was excellent defensively in MN. It's a shame about Martin's injury: he's a talented guy and looked like he was figuring out his approach at the plate again, and had gotten himself healthy after a wrist injury and COVID. His AFL performance was overshadowed by Julien a bit, but he played very well and looked to be using that to launch into his season. It's a shame to have that interrupted again. Someone suggested if he has surgery that we leave him exposed to the Rule 5: that's a pretty bad idea, and I doubt it will happen. Another team, especially one that's rebuilding would snap him up in a heartbeat. They'd be able to stash him on the injured list for a chunk of the season, but even if they had to activate him he could be useful on a major league roster even if it was too early for him to be ready with his defense in the OF and flexibility to roam around. There's pretty much no chance the Twins will risk it.

I don't think there's much question that Lopez didn't have his head right during his time with the Twins last season, and that almost certainly impacted him. I don't expect him to be 1st half Balto dude, but if he's the average of the two halves he'll be a quality guy for the back end and I think that's very achievable. The Twin did buy high on him, but there also a real possibility that he can get back to a high level again. Making moves like that in the midseason are going to cost. I liked the aggression at the time and I'm not going to second-guess now because the season unraveled. It's also important to remember that it doesn't take much to balloon a reliever's stat line, especially in a sample as small as 23 games. As bad as the Cleveland game in Sept looks, he didn't blow the game: we were already down 3, and I like he bounced back after a garbage outing to have 5 straight good ones.