jmlease1

I believe in his ability as a defensive player (despite the pop-gun arm), but remain a little skeptical of his ceiling on offense if he can't learn to draw a few more walks. I hope the recent trend of driving the ball deeper in the OF will result in an increase in his line drive %, which should help his BABIP.

I'm just happy to see him playing and playing well. I hope he gets a well-deserved run of good health.

I've seen no indicators that Willingham would be any worse in RF than he would be in LF, considering his ugly approach to balls in LF, I'd think having less territory (and a decent enough arm) would make him better off in RF. And while I understand the idea of not jacking around your best hitter...I don't like the general Gardy philosophy of kowtowing to a player's wishes for where they get to play in the field. Right now the Twins best OF alignment would be Span in LF, Revere in CF, and Willingham in RF, but we won't see it because Span wants to play CF and Willingham apparently prefers to play LF. The inmates shouldn't run the asylum, but this is how Gardy keeps his rep as a player's coach. Plouffe is acceptable right now against LHP, but is a disaster against RHP, so he needs a platoon partner. Doumit should be able to fill it once he gets a bit healthier. I mean, come on, we all know that Butera is re-installed as the backup catcher, and will be there even if he goes 0-50. twins just need another bat or any kind, really.

I didn't realize that Guerra's fastball topped out so low. I really thought his stuff was more consistently in the low 90's, so I may have to re-evaluate my thinking on his ability to succeed in MLB. It will be interesting to see if Oliveros has the control to make the Twins roster in the next year or two. I also wonder if Cuellar will be able to work up a change-up for him at AAA. If he can get a good change to go with the mid-90's fb and a hard slider, he could be quite exciting if he can throw strikes. Fair number of ifs, but some interesting possibilities too.

I'm fine with giving DeVries a shot as the 5th starter. My expectations are minimal, but you'd think he can't do worse than Marquis. Marquis' total collapse is a bit surprising, frankly. I never expected great things out of him, but thought as a 5th starter he'd be a guy who could eat up a lot of innings if he was healthy. Which is why I was vaguely ok with a 1 year $3M deal on him. It wasn't a great move, but it didn't look awful, which it has turned out to be. He looks totally done. The error is magnified, of course, due to the rest of the staff that was projected for the rotation struggling or getting hurt as well. It makes the Marquis signing look significantly worse than it really was, I think. (It's still a minimal commitment to a guy who supposedly was signed to fill a lesser role) At the start of the season I called this twins club the hardest I'd ever seen to project, because there were so many questions and so few certainties in both the rotation, bullpen, and lineup. So far the rotation has crapped out on all of those questions (while the bullpen has pretty much answered them).

I would prefer the Twins go big on Grienke and sign a modest FA for the back of the rotation then split the money more evenly on 2 starters with less ability, just this once. Why? Because I think the Twins can actually sign Grienke, who has elite ability, which won't happen too often. I think he'd look at the Twins and see a lot of things that would make it an attractive place to play for him (ballpark, market, team concepts, etc.) and I suspect that will be more important to him than anything else. A rotation of Grienke, Gibson, Diamond, Blackburn, and Free Agent X with Hendricks/Walters/Swarzak/Duensing as the alternatives for if/when someone fails would be a nice base to work from.

Last sentence of the 3rd paragraph is the money quote: "making him an ideal fit between Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau." Happy he's finally slotted in there rather than batting 5th behind Morneau. It's nice to turn LH relievers back into the LOOGYs they should be, instead of having them rack up too many outs against the M&M boys.

He's playing quite well, although it would be nice to see a little more power production. It's still early, and I expect we'll see more doubles flying around the park. But the anti-Mauer folks (Dan Barreiro, please pick up the white courtesy phone) will cherry-pick any failure as proof that he's crap and unworthy of his contract. He's a great player and with his legs under him this season, i think he's going to prove it all year. With Doumit available to catch, it's far less painful to have Joe plays a little 1B, DH, etc. and hopefully it will keep him able to play a lot more games. That said, if Mauer is trying to prove anything, it won't be seen by a lot of the haters until a) he drives in a ton of runs (still too many people who rely on the RBI to show who a "good" player is), hits more home runs (chicks dig the long ball?), and c) plays a full season appearing in 140+ games. But I'll be perfectly happy if he plays a lot, hits like Joe Mauer, and quietly gives a big ol' middle finger to the critics.

His mechanics are all over the place right now and he has long stretches where he's just a mess on the mound. If he's willing to do it, a little time down in AAA to get things straightened out would probably be just the ticket. Scott Diamond doesn't have the upside of a Liriano, but he's more likely to give quality starts right now. I disagree that the peripherals on him are the same as last year; the K rate is the same, but the walks are down, the hits are down, and he's keeping the ball in the park better right now. It's a small sample size, so I'm not going to pretend that he's going to be some savior. But Liriano is spiraling out of control and I'm not sure he's going to correct the problem in MLB. Diamond could provide a little better consistency for a team that should be able to score enough runs for him.

Considering the injuries and struggles with the Twins MLB pitching staff, is DeVries a guy that could be called upon to help? Does he have the talent to stick? Too soon to tell where he's at?

Agreed. I go with "true" as well. I think he has the capability to hit for a high average, especially with his speed. I have concerns that he may not master the strike zone well enough to get on base at the clip he needs to if he has an unlucky year with BABIP, but even if he ends up more like Juan Pierre as a hitter he can be a starting CF for many years with his skills in CF. I hope this means that the days of speculation that we'll deal Span for a relief pitcher are long past!

That's garbage. Pohlads will spend if the baseball staff says it's worth it.

I think the concern is that Clete is going to start getting more PT than Doumit when Mauer is in the lineup so as to ensure gardy has a catcher on the bench. or that with Morneau playing in the field again, Parmelee is going to be sent down in favor of having a (useless) 3rd catcher in order to cater to Gardy's fear of losing his DH. Based on prior history, that's a legit concern. I'm willing to wait and see how this plays out afore trashing the manager, especially since he's made the move to break up Mauer & Morneau with Willingham in the batting order. I hope this means he will continue to make the right moves to get the right guys in the right positions and give them and the team their best chance to succeed.

We'll see how much complaining I do about Gardy this year. It may end up being less. My biggest problems with him have been: playing no-hit guys because "they could really pick it" even when their total failures as offensive players vastly outweighed any defensive contribution, playing crappy veterans when it was clear that there wouldn't be an improvement from them while rookies with some promise sat on the bench/rotted in AAA, failing to make out a batting order that played to his team's strengths and downplayed their weaknesses, and playing favorites with players. (I've also been of the opinion that he had significant influence on personnel moves during Billy Smith's tenure and not to the good, but YMMV) This season complaints 1 & 2 seem to be mitigated already by the roster. Our no-hope 3rd catcher Butera has been sent down, and there aren't any veterans on this roster likely to be washed except for possibly Marquis, and he's slotted into a relatively minor role. The batting order remains a concern; Gardy still seems bound and determined to bat LHs together more than seems to make sense, but at least he's got a SS whose OBP makes sense for him to hit in the 2-hole, since we know a middle infielder will hit there, regardless of his ability. The playing favorites issue will bear watching. I'm fine with Span being our starting CF alongside Willingham & Doumit...but when revere was a serious contender to start in the OF, I hated the idea that Revere was going to primarily play LF because Span "likes it better in CF". We'll see how this works out. I'm not convinced Gardy is a great manager. I'm willing to be convinced he's not terrible. But I think he's got some weaknesses and hasn't shone as a game-manager.

Well, since ERA+ accounts for park factors, it's a pretty reasonable stat to look at general value. Try to keep in mind, Tim Lincecum hasn't been the same pitcher the last 2 seasons as those 2 Cy Young years, mmmkay? No, Sabean's not going to deal the guy for Baker (who is 2 years older and has trouble staying healthy), but last season they were fairly comparable until Baker got hurt. And Baker's numbers show pretty clearly that he's capable for being a nice #2 starter if healthy. I think Jim Leland would have been happy to have a guy like Blackburn pitching for him last season, again, before Blackie got hurt. If Nick Blackburn is your 2nd or 3rd guy, that's not good. If he's your 4th or 5th guy, that's not bad at all. I'd rather use stats to look at how good our pitching staff is or can be, than rely on memory. If you're remembering those games at the end of July when he went back-to-back giving up a gazillion hits, runs in bunches, and couldn't get through more than 3-4 innings...yeah, you'll think he stinks. If you remember May when he went 5 straight starts pitching into the 7th inning including a complete game, never giving up more than 2 ER, then you probably think he's a really good pitcher. The truth lies somewhere in between: healthy, Nick Blackburn should be the 4th or 5th starter on a decent pitching staff.

It has to be the walks. That's the only explanation that really makes sense. the twins philosophy is really against walking guys, and Slama has put a few guys on that way. I agree, he hasn't really gotten the chance his stats have suggested he deserves.

Baker & Liriano only get discounted if you punish them for inability to stay healthy. On talent, Liriano is a #1, Baker is a #2. Pavano is a 3-4 at this point in his career, but he's not a 5 because he seems to be able to stay healthy and grind out 200+ innings now. I don't understand why you hate Blackburn so much. Healthy he's absolutely a MLB starter. Marquis is the definition of a "veteran presence, back of the rotation" guy, and as a 5th starter he'll be fine if he can keep the ball on the ground. If not, well, he's a 5th starter and we have other options to fill that role with Hendriks, Swarzak, etc. Also, if you were able to find a couple of candidates in MLB that could be worse than the Twins rotation, even with your deeply pessimistic and seemingly anti-Twins attitude...how can this be the worst rotation in baseball history? I mean seriously. Scott Baker: ERA+ of 128 last season. Tim Lincecum: ERA+ of 130 last season. Nick Blackburn: ERA+ of 89 last season, with injuries Detroit's 2-4 starters last season (Scherzer, Porcello, Penny): 92, 86, 79 respectively Still think he's not MLB-worthy? The real issue with the Twins rotation is health, not ability. There's enough talent there for this club to compete, but if guys like Liriano, Baker, and Blackburn aren't healthy/can't stay healthy, then the team is going to have problems. But it's hard to bet on health one way or the other. Is Carl Pavano a workhorse or injury-riddled? FLA fans would call him a workhorse, after seeing back-to-back 200+ inning seasons. Yankee fans think of him as an injury-riddled mess with 3 straight seasons where he could get on/stay on the field. Since then he's been back to workhorse mode with 4 straight 200+ inning seasons! (ok, I rounded up a bit; the first 2 of those 4 he was actually at 199 1/3 in each of them) Which should we project/count on? The Twins are betting their starters will be healthy enough this season. There's definite risk in that position, especially since Gibson won't be ready to step in this year. I'd feel a lot better about where the starters are if we had BOTH Gibson and Hendriks waiting in AAA if Baker has arm trouble, Marquis is ineffective, or Pavano finally runs out of gas. But it's not an unreasonable risk.

Seriously? I'm not going to pretend that Nick Blackburn is some elite pitcher or anything, and the twins probably made a mistake giving him the long-term deal they did when they did...but if you don't think Nick Blackburn doesn't belong in MLB I just don't know what to tell you. His first 2 full seasons with the Twins he had an ERA+ of 103 and 109 and WAR of 2.2 and 2.8. That's a nice solid number for a back of the rotation guy. Year 3 was awful (75 ERA+ and a negative WAR), but last season was a step back in the right direction, except for the injuries. Healthy, there's no reason to believe Nick Blackburn can't put up an ERA+ of 105-110 and a WAR of 2-3. If you don't think that kind of player doesn't have a place on a big-league roster you're living in fantasyland. The same kind of analysis can apply to Luke Hughes: are we expecting him to be Dustin Pedroia? No! But the Twins 2Bs last season were dismal. It wouldn't take a lot for Hughes to be a significant improvement on what we got out of that position last year, and he seems capable of the job. Having competent, reliable, quality MLB players down the roster goes a long way towards making a team a winning ballclub. The twins aren't going anywhere if Mauer, Morneau, and Liriano don't have good, healthy seasons. But even if they do, the team isn't going to be a winning ballclub if they don't get reasonable production at 2B, CF, 3B, and the bench. (the pitching staff is another issue). Hughes can help the production at 2B; the question is, should he be starting? I'm leaning towards yes.

Blackburn is a MLB-calibre pitcher; on most clubs he'd be a 4th-5th starter. Hughes is a player we don't know about yet. He's got nothing left to prove in AAA, but might not be able to make it in MLB. But if he has a major role on this club it'll mean either A) someone got injured or he played himself into a starting job. If it's A, that could be bad. If it's B, it's awesome. Marquis is a 5th starter for us and would compete for that role on a lot of other clubs too. Starting pitching is still hard to find and if Marquis is getting ground balls, he can be effective. Carroll got a lot of starts for the Dodgers last year...are they a AAA club? If he comes in with a .380 OBP and solid defense he'd start for a lot of teams too. 100 losses are hardly a given. But to Seth's question...I would give Hughes a shot at the starting 2B job. If his defense can hold up I think he'd bring a little power and balance to the lineup. Casilla is probably best suited as a utility guy, and it would make it easy for him to come in as a late-game replacement for Carroll to give him a few more innings off. Casilla is a better option as a pinch runner, which gives him more value on the bench than some other options. The question is: is his defense reliable enough at 2B? The range might be an issue, with Carroll's strength being his ability to make the play cleanly, not ranging far and wide. But I think it's worth seriously considering.

The only real knock against him is the Mike Piazza critique: having to call a grown man "Chipper". He's a lock for the HoF. He was an elite hitter for a long time. 7 all-star games, 1 MVP, 6 times top 10 in MVP balloting, 7 seasons with an OPS+ over 150, 4 seasons with a bRef WAR of 7+, 13 consecutive seasons with a Bref WAR of 4+. He had big seasons, he was great for a long time. He's going to come up a little shy of 3000 hits or 500 HRs, but he's a no-brainer HoF to me.

I'm feeling pretty optimistic about Span, presuming health. Hard to do, but how do you do anything else? A line of .280/.380/.400 wouldn't surprise me one bit, with average to plus defense in the field. CF is a position of strength for the Twins, I think. Revere can easily shift over there and play it and be an outstanding defender there, and his weak arm won't be too much of a killer. Benson is close to being ready, and should be able to fill in capably. My biggest question is whether the twins might not be better off with Span playing LF with Revere in CF when Revere is on the field. Span has enough arm for LF and has played well there before, whereas Revere is a little more questionable as a LF. So far the reasoning I've heard is that Gardy is going to play Span in CF because that's where Span wants to be, which makes me wonder who's running this show.

Disasters is a vast overstatement. None of these guys have long-term deals, so they're hardly going to cripple the franchise. Did they overpay for Capps? Yes, IMHO, but if we get the guy from 2010 instead of 2011, it's not a terrible deal. Marquis was signed to be the 5th starter. Let's see how he does outside of spring training before we bury this one, but again...he didn't cost a ton and won't be a drag on the payroll after this season if he busts. Carroll was signed to be a solid middle INF who could get on base. He looks fine defensively, and again...I'm not going to take the small sample size of spring training as gospel. Let's see how he does in Target Field, eh? He only has a 2 year deal, so even if he turns out to be a better fit as the utility guy, it won't be a terrible fit. A smart fan knows spring training means very little. A smart fan knows that short-term deals are rarely a disaster because the team can move on from them pretty easily. A smart fan knows that you don't judge a GM on one offseason.

I'm thinking it's fairly likely the Twins pick up the option unless Baker has another injury-riddled year. Projecting the rotation at $30M seems reasonable, and with Balckburn/Hendriks costing a combined $6M, leaving $24M for 3 slots...$9.5M is viable. Especially if they think Gibson will be ready to be at least a 5th starter in 2013. That would still leave money in the budget to bring back Liriano even if his free agent number jumps over $12M per. A 2013 rotation of Liriano, Baker, Hendriks, Blackburn, and Gibson sounds pretty good to me, and shouldn't break the bank.

ITA with this. Look at how hard it's been for the Twins to fill the SS position. If Dozier becomes an average MLB starting SS for 4-6 seasons with the club, he won't be considered an "impact" player by some, but it'd be a huge win for the franchise not having to search for a SS every season and enduring the many failures we've had over the years. And a #3 or #4 starter is an impact player too. Teams are always looking for starting pitching, and continuing to develop quality MLB starters is also very good. Filling that #3/4 hole and not overpaying on a replacement-level free agent? Also a big win. I think I look at "impact" players differently than a lot of the so-called experts; my thoughts are much more like Seth's. Impact players in the upper-levels to me are guys who can come up and fill in when someone gets an injury and not drag the club down. They're guys who have the potential to be starters in MLB for several years. They don't have to just be all-stars in the making to be serious impact players for me. And the twins have a number of guys in AA & AAA that meet that definition. People always want to have the Next Big Star one promotion away. But that doesn't happen too often. Hopefully the guy the Twins get with the #2 pick in the draft will be one of those players, but even if it doesn't happen I don't think the cupboard is bare and I think the twins can continue to look to their minor league system first when trying to fill holes in the starting lineup.

Reliable sources say there's an incentive structure in this contract if Perkins starts closing games. So it's not quite as beautiful as it could be. But this is a very good deal. I think of it with 2012 folded in, 4 years, $12M. Pretty good for a top-level set-up guy, a pitcher who could be a classic fireman. He's got closer potential, and even with a salary bump if he gets that role it's still going to be a value buy.