jmlease1

Part of the problem Mauer has is he's not particularly media-friendly (he doesn't say much, speaks in cliches, and would generally rather just go about his business and be left alone), which opens the door for some twits in the local sports media to a) clock him regularly for perceived flaws in his production, or encourage fans to do the same. (Dan Barreiro, please pick up the white courtesy phone...Dan Barreiro, to the white phone) Coming off a terrible, injury-plagued season where the entire team collapsed, Joe became an easy target of blame for the lazy and uninformed, and so that's why you see crap like this. Mauer's the best catcher in the AL right now, even though he's only played half his games there. Mauer is an all-star. Willingham is having a very nice year, but the competition at OF is a lot tougher. Plouffe's surge probably came a little bit too late, and his start was so awful that you can't object too much to leaving him out.

I think Span is the Twins best trade asset right now; he's a solid MLB CF who is under contract for a couple of years at a very good price. He's proven to be a real asset at the top of the order, and the health concerns appear to be a thing of the past. He should be a very attractive to a number of teams. I'd hate to lose Span for all of those reasons, but for the right price he should be traded. We do have a replacement for him in CF in Ben Revere, who seems to be showing that he can hit at this level. (would I be happier if Revere got a few more walks, had a little more pop in his bat? sure, but if he can hit .320 you just roll with it.) But it has to be the right deal. I don't want to deal a quality MLB starter for a couple of maybe prospects sitting in A-ball. Moving Span for a couple of C prospects isn't a good use of the team's assets. There needs to be some high upside and at least one guy who's not 3 years away. Another $5M in payroll room wouldn't hurt; that could absorb all of the raises to guys currently under contract/control while we spend the money freed up from cutting Pavano, Baker, Liriano, & Capps loose on starting pitching (Zack Greinke to the white courtesy phone...paging Zack Greinke...)

Here's my biggest issue with the "trade all the assets" movement for the Twins: this isn't basketball, where you're better off blowing things up and starting from scratch than being a mediocre team for several years. Anything can happen in a baseball playoff, so getting into the playoffs should be the goal, rather than trying to tear everything down with the hope of building a dynasty in the future. How much real value to Perkins & Burton have in trade? Smart GMs know that you can build a good bullpen on the cheap and that spending big money for a closer is probably wasting money. So we're really looking at getting back C-level prospects at best, in exchange for MLB pitchers that are filling a valuable role. Considering who much of a crap-shoot the MLB draft is, bottoming out the team seems to have marginal benefit. I agree with the idea that the twins have a serious problem with their rotation, but that doesn't mean it can't be turned around relatively quickly. But we won't really know until the off-season at least. Scott Diamond could be a solid starter. Gibson may be ready by next season, depending on how he responds this year. Liam Hendriks might be ready to be in the back end. Blackburn should be able to fit in the back of the rotation. The Twins are short at the top of the rotation, but there should be some options on the free agent market, and the Twins will have the money to spend on one if they so choose. And choose they should: with Pavano, Baker, Liriano, and Capps' contracts off the books, that gives the Twins $26M to spend without raising payroll. (Use the Marquis contract to cover some of the inevitable payroll increases?) Zack Greinke sounds pretty good and the Twins should be a viable suitor. But not if we decimate the roster. The offense sure looks solid enough. The defense has improved. The bullpen is solid. The ballpark is awesome. If ownership is willing to spend...why not, if the young players can go? But tear it all down and we guarantee 3 years or more of crap.

If there's a real bidding war for Span and we can get some high-upside prospects for him, then I guess you have to seriously consider it. but considering Span's value as A) a lead-off hitter and a good CF, and C) a guy who has proven to be a superior defensive player at LF, and D) has a good contract I don't want him dumped near the trade deadline. Span should only get moved for the right trade. I agree with John, there should be multiple teams interested in dealing for Span for all of those factors. But I don't know if there are enough teams willing to give up serious prospects to make it a value move for the twins. I understand that the twins have some serious rotation issues and 1 arm isn't going to fix it...but the team should also have money to spend on more than one in free agency, and if guys like Diamond prove it over the course of the season, we're not quite as far back as one might think, especially since the offense seems to be solid. The Twins are in an interesting and difficult position in their rebuild. They don't want to tear the whole thing down because they have some nice pieces, they just moved into a new stadium and don't want to crash the attendance, and they don't want to become KC/Pittsburgh rolling the dice on prospects for a decade. At the same time, they're not well-constructed to win in the short-term because the starting rotation has collapsed through age & injury & ineffectiveness.

Difficult to project 2014 right now, but here's an idea: C: Mauer 1B: Parmelee 2B: Veteran Free Agent That Many People Think is Washed-up SS: Dozier 3B: Plouffe LF: Willingham CF: Revere RF: Benson DH: Veteran Free Agent That Many People Think is Washed-up Rotation: Gibson Diamond Hendriks Wimmers Veteran Free Agent That Many People Think is Washed-up Bullpen: Glen Perkins Deolis Guerra A bunch of guys we can't possibly know...yet (and that's ok) I suspect Gardy hates Valencia and will run him out of town. Plouffe is enough of an enigma he won't go away, which will drive a close friend of mine nuts, so clearly he has to be in the Opening Day lineup. I 'massuming Willingham doesn't get dealt to be the "veteran slugger" and I'm actually ok with it, since his contract is reasonable and we need his kind of power. This presumes Span gets dealt, and I just pray we got something good for him and not a couple of A-ball prospects and/or a reliever. Benson looks like he has no shot right now, so I have to pick him, since someone is coming out of nowhere to make the 2014 roster. Rosario won't be ready yet (mid-season call up), so the Twins will sign a guy like Jamey Carroll to caddy for a while. the rotation is not my preference, just what i think might happen; I'd rather see the Twins drop some serious money on a front-line starter (Zack Greinke might be my top choice), but I can't say they'll do it. So I'm assuming it'll be guys working through the system with an old veteran in the back (the tradition of Livan Hernandez, Jason Marquis, etc. lives on!). Guerra should be in the 'pen by 2014; absent injury, I expect him there in 2013, with Perkins taking over as closer. The rest of the jobs should be filled as needed like we did this year: without spending stupid money on anyone, or signing guys for their name.

Parmelee's evolution as a player is pretty interesting. He's always had good control of the strike zone, consistently posting good OBP numbers throughout his minor league career, but started out as a low-average, slugging player, who retooled his swing along the way to increase the batting average. What's especially interesting to me about him (and what gives me hope for his future as a solid MLB player) is how he always does better the second time around. he's always been able to hit once he gets comfortable at a level, which makes me hopeful that when he gets back to the bigs he'll stick. The current numbers at Rochester are the product of a small sample size to be sure, but it's encouraging that he got sent down, didn't pout, made some adjustments and started hitting the hell out of the ball. I think he's got a chance. Now, he's not really all that young of a player any longer; the need to spend 2 stints at most levels in the minors means this is his Year 24 season and the window is closing. Last sept he was a little lucky (BABIP of .390?), a little bit the beneficiary of Sept baseball, and it wasn't sustainable. I don't think his early stats this year are indicative of his truly ability either: he was a little unlucky (BABIP of .238?) needed to make some adjustments, and struggled with the pressure. Somewhere in the middle is probably the true Chris Parmelee; the combo line is .263/.344/.419 with an OPS+ of 112 and that's not a bad ball player. I think there's a bit more ceiling in OBP & SLG for Parmelee as he gets more comfortable in MLB, too. Don't expect him to be Justin Morneau, but he can be a solid hitter and nice asset for this team, especially if he gets protection against the really tough LHPs.

This is exactly the problem with tossing Willingham/Morneau/Span or even Mauer over the side for prospects. If a bunch of those prospects all come together at the right time and are supplemented with smart FA acquisitions, then the team is back as a contender and could have another lengthy run. The other side of that coin is the Royals, who have been rebuilding for 20 years (2 winning records in 20 years. And how many times have we heard about all the great KC prospects about to break through?). Pittsburgh is even worse (and has made even more foolish FA veteran signings). It's tough to catch lightning in a bottle. Here's the other argument in favor of hanging on to at least some of your veterans: it positions you better to win when a couple of prospects break through, instead of needing 4-6 to be ready at the same time. When the Twins were still in the Dome it made more sense to flip the vets and go looking for more prospects because it didn't make sense to lose money on a team that couldn't win. This Twins team isn't going to win, but as constructed it won't lose money. Keeping some of these veteran assets will help it stay more competitive on the field, too, which will keep butts in the seats.

Willingham has been excellent and a value buy at $7M per. Who would replace him? And what would we really get for him, even if he was on the table? A couple of A-ball pitching prospects? No one is going to be breaking down the doors for him right now, and by mid-summer you have to expect that his BA is going to settle in around .260-.270. Even with his 30-hr pop, is he going to be a guy that someone is going to part with a top prospect for? Seems unlikely. So how much of a benefit is it to deal a guy with a good contract that fills a real team need for a roll of a dice on prospects? If this were the last year of his deal, or even the 2nd-to-last, I'd consider it (perhaps be all for it), but not in year 1 of a 3 year deal. There's a lot of talk right now about the Twins dealing their veteran players, but most of it seems unrealistic/foolish, and everybody wants us to get pitching. Mauer would cause a PR hit and either require taking on a bad contract or not getting good value, and we don't have a viable replacement. Morneau's injury history makes him difficult to move, and until Parmelee proves it, we don't have a full-time replacement. Span's the most easily moved, but why would we? He's in his prime, can play multiple positions in the OF, his contract is good...and we don't know yet if Revere can hit enough to take his place. (and we don't have a replacement leading off, unless Gardy defies all prior history and puts Mauer in there) Flipping veterans sounds good in concept, but the reality for this team is much more problematic.

Carroll has been mildly disappointing at the plate, but I suspect by season end he'll be hitting closer to his career norms and his OBP will make him a reasonable option. But his best position is "utility INF who plays a fair amount", since his defense is more than adequate at SS, 2B, and 3B. I actually think the bigger reason why Dozier is up is because they've tossed Valencia back to AAA, rather than Carroll's performance at SS. And once Dozier came up it made more sense to adjust the roles accordingly. Carroll's a useful piece. But the Twins will be best off if Dozier proves he can handle the position defensively (so far, so good) and offensively (jury very much out) for the next several years.

I'm increasingly leery of the plan for Wimmers. More rehab on an elbow injury for a Twins starter? It's going to really suck if he spends the next 3-4 months rehabbing the injury...and then has to have surgery (Tommy John?) anyways. I hope he's getting second and third opinions.

It's a tough move to deal Morneau. His injury history will keep teams from making a big offer on him, even if he stays healthy and keeps slugging. He's a fan-favorite and draw at the ballpark and if healthy his contract is reasonable. His value just hasn't come back enough yet for me to advocate trading him. Parmelee feel back to earth, so it's not like we have a built-in replacement. (Sorry, sports fans, I refuse to get on the "Joe Mauer will move to 1B" bandwagon, for several reasons. 1) Mauer is a great catcher. 2) Mauer wants to play catcher, and Gardy will play guys where they want to play. 3) If Mauer moves to our primary 1B, Butera will become our regular catcher, which will be very ugly once his OPS comes back down to earth. Eesh.) Now, if a team comes at us with a big offer, it'd be hard to say no. But I don't think we'll get that big offer. I think it's more likely we'll get low-balled as teams hope we'll just dump salary in a losing year and sell low on a former MVP. I don't want to see Justin go. But I'd do it for the right price. But it'd better be for the right price, not just any price.

I believe in his ability as a defensive player (despite the pop-gun arm), but remain a little skeptical of his ceiling on offense if he can't learn to draw a few more walks. I hope the recent trend of driving the ball deeper in the OF will result in an increase in his line drive %, which should help his BABIP.

I'm just happy to see him playing and playing well. I hope he gets a well-deserved run of good health.

I've seen no indicators that Willingham would be any worse in RF than he would be in LF, considering his ugly approach to balls in LF, I'd think having less territory (and a decent enough arm) would make him better off in RF. And while I understand the idea of not jacking around your best hitter...I don't like the general Gardy philosophy of kowtowing to a player's wishes for where they get to play in the field. Right now the Twins best OF alignment would be Span in LF, Revere in CF, and Willingham in RF, but we won't see it because Span wants to play CF and Willingham apparently prefers to play LF. The inmates shouldn't run the asylum, but this is how Gardy keeps his rep as a player's coach. Plouffe is acceptable right now against LHP, but is a disaster against RHP, so he needs a platoon partner. Doumit should be able to fill it once he gets a bit healthier. I mean, come on, we all know that Butera is re-installed as the backup catcher, and will be there even if he goes 0-50. twins just need another bat or any kind, really.

I didn't realize that Guerra's fastball topped out so low. I really thought his stuff was more consistently in the low 90's, so I may have to re-evaluate my thinking on his ability to succeed in MLB. It will be interesting to see if Oliveros has the control to make the Twins roster in the next year or two. I also wonder if Cuellar will be able to work up a change-up for him at AAA. If he can get a good change to go with the mid-90's fb and a hard slider, he could be quite exciting if he can throw strikes. Fair number of ifs, but some interesting possibilities too.

I'm fine with giving DeVries a shot as the 5th starter. My expectations are minimal, but you'd think he can't do worse than Marquis. Marquis' total collapse is a bit surprising, frankly. I never expected great things out of him, but thought as a 5th starter he'd be a guy who could eat up a lot of innings if he was healthy. Which is why I was vaguely ok with a 1 year $3M deal on him. It wasn't a great move, but it didn't look awful, which it has turned out to be. He looks totally done. The error is magnified, of course, due to the rest of the staff that was projected for the rotation struggling or getting hurt as well. It makes the Marquis signing look significantly worse than it really was, I think. (It's still a minimal commitment to a guy who supposedly was signed to fill a lesser role) At the start of the season I called this twins club the hardest I'd ever seen to project, because there were so many questions and so few certainties in both the rotation, bullpen, and lineup. So far the rotation has crapped out on all of those questions (while the bullpen has pretty much answered them).

I would prefer the Twins go big on Grienke and sign a modest FA for the back of the rotation then split the money more evenly on 2 starters with less ability, just this once. Why? Because I think the Twins can actually sign Grienke, who has elite ability, which won't happen too often. I think he'd look at the Twins and see a lot of things that would make it an attractive place to play for him (ballpark, market, team concepts, etc.) and I suspect that will be more important to him than anything else. A rotation of Grienke, Gibson, Diamond, Blackburn, and Free Agent X with Hendricks/Walters/Swarzak/Duensing as the alternatives for if/when someone fails would be a nice base to work from.

Last sentence of the 3rd paragraph is the money quote: "making him an ideal fit between Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau." Happy he's finally slotted in there rather than batting 5th behind Morneau. It's nice to turn LH relievers back into the LOOGYs they should be, instead of having them rack up too many outs against the M&M boys.

He's playing quite well, although it would be nice to see a little more power production. It's still early, and I expect we'll see more doubles flying around the park. But the anti-Mauer folks (Dan Barreiro, please pick up the white courtesy phone) will cherry-pick any failure as proof that he's crap and unworthy of his contract. He's a great player and with his legs under him this season, i think he's going to prove it all year. With Doumit available to catch, it's far less painful to have Joe plays a little 1B, DH, etc. and hopefully it will keep him able to play a lot more games. That said, if Mauer is trying to prove anything, it won't be seen by a lot of the haters until a) he drives in a ton of runs (still too many people who rely on the RBI to show who a "good" player is), hits more home runs (chicks dig the long ball?), and c) plays a full season appearing in 140+ games. But I'll be perfectly happy if he plays a lot, hits like Joe Mauer, and quietly gives a big ol' middle finger to the critics.

His mechanics are all over the place right now and he has long stretches where he's just a mess on the mound. If he's willing to do it, a little time down in AAA to get things straightened out would probably be just the ticket. Scott Diamond doesn't have the upside of a Liriano, but he's more likely to give quality starts right now. I disagree that the peripherals on him are the same as last year; the K rate is the same, but the walks are down, the hits are down, and he's keeping the ball in the park better right now. It's a small sample size, so I'm not going to pretend that he's going to be some savior. But Liriano is spiraling out of control and I'm not sure he's going to correct the problem in MLB. Diamond could provide a little better consistency for a team that should be able to score enough runs for him.

Considering the injuries and struggles with the Twins MLB pitching staff, is DeVries a guy that could be called upon to help? Does he have the talent to stick? Too soon to tell where he's at?

Agreed. I go with "true" as well. I think he has the capability to hit for a high average, especially with his speed. I have concerns that he may not master the strike zone well enough to get on base at the clip he needs to if he has an unlucky year with BABIP, but even if he ends up more like Juan Pierre as a hitter he can be a starting CF for many years with his skills in CF. I hope this means that the days of speculation that we'll deal Span for a relief pitcher are long past!

That's garbage. Pohlads will spend if the baseball staff says it's worth it.

I think the concern is that Clete is going to start getting more PT than Doumit when Mauer is in the lineup so as to ensure gardy has a catcher on the bench. or that with Morneau playing in the field again, Parmelee is going to be sent down in favor of having a (useless) 3rd catcher in order to cater to Gardy's fear of losing his DH. Based on prior history, that's a legit concern. I'm willing to wait and see how this plays out afore trashing the manager, especially since he's made the move to break up Mauer & Morneau with Willingham in the batting order. I hope this means he will continue to make the right moves to get the right guys in the right positions and give them and the team their best chance to succeed.

We'll see how much complaining I do about Gardy this year. It may end up being less. My biggest problems with him have been: playing no-hit guys because "they could really pick it" even when their total failures as offensive players vastly outweighed any defensive contribution, playing crappy veterans when it was clear that there wouldn't be an improvement from them while rookies with some promise sat on the bench/rotted in AAA, failing to make out a batting order that played to his team's strengths and downplayed their weaknesses, and playing favorites with players. (I've also been of the opinion that he had significant influence on personnel moves during Billy Smith's tenure and not to the good, but YMMV) This season complaints 1 & 2 seem to be mitigated already by the roster. Our no-hope 3rd catcher Butera has been sent down, and there aren't any veterans on this roster likely to be washed except for possibly Marquis, and he's slotted into a relatively minor role. The batting order remains a concern; Gardy still seems bound and determined to bat LHs together more than seems to make sense, but at least he's got a SS whose OBP makes sense for him to hit in the 2-hole, since we know a middle infielder will hit there, regardless of his ability. The playing favorites issue will bear watching. I'm fine with Span being our starting CF alongside Willingham & Doumit...but when revere was a serious contender to start in the OF, I hated the idea that Revere was going to primarily play LF because Span "likes it better in CF". We'll see how this works out. I'm not convinced Gardy is a great manager. I'm willing to be convinced he's not terrible. But I think he's got some weaknesses and hasn't shone as a game-manager.