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  1. At the 2022 trade deadline, the Twins front office evaluated their needs honestly, and acted decisively based on the information they had available. Regardless of the outcome, I commend their approach. The opposite is true of this year's downright negligent handling of the trade deadline. We are already seeing the cost, and it threatens to be far greater than a few lost prospects. Image courtesy of Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports With the benefit of hindsight, no one would say Minnesota's big trades at the deadline last year worked out. If they could go back and do it all over again, knowing what they know now, the front office certainly would not have traded away a bunch of prospects for Tyler Mahle and Jorge Lopez. But you know what? They didn't have the benefit of hindsight when they made those moves. All they had was the information available in real-time, which was this: The Twins were in first place in a winnable division, and they had some clear flaws that they needed to address if they were going to make a real run at the thing. Last July, those needs were pretty significant. They needed a credible frontline starter to plug in alongside Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan, and a high-caliber reliever to complement Jhoan Duran in the late innings. The Twins swung big. They gave up decent prospect packages to acquire Mahle and Lopez all along with extra years of service for both. The front office knew the risk factors attached to both players -- Mahle's injury concerns and Lopez's unconvincing long-term track record -- but didn't know both would come fully to fruition. The front office also couldn't have guessed that even if both pickups played exactly up to optimistic expectations, it wouldn't have mattered because the entire roster collapsed in an injury epidemic. All the Twins front office knew at the time was where they were at and what they needed. They acted accordingly. The last takeaway you'd want the club to draw from this experience is that risks aren't worth taking. After all, some of this regime's greatest and most impactful moves have been the payoffs of bold risk-taking, for example: Dealing their 100+ MPH throwing top pitching prospect Brusdar Graterol to the Dodgers for Kenta Maeda. Dealing their 100+ MPH throwing top draft pick Chase Petty to the Reds for Sonny Gray. Trading their reigning batting champ Luis Arraez to the Marlins for Pablo Lopez. Those moves led us to where the Twins are at today, with an elite rotation featuring three playoff-caliber starters. And for some reason, upon reaching this long-awaited moment they've been building toward, the front office passed up the opportunity to provide much-needed help for that unit and the rest of this team as it aims to reach the postseason and snap a 20-year curse. The team's needs at this past deadline were lesser in scale, but no less clearly evident. They needed bullpen help -- ideally a high-leverage arm, but even middle relief depth would help. Injuries to Brock Stewart and Jorge Alcala, combined with Jorge Lopez proving unusably bad, left the team's planned late-inning core severely lacking, in need of support. Adding one or two relatively trusted relief arms of the Michael Fulmer ilk would've done worlds for this unit's depth and stability. The cost for such assets would've been vastly less than a Mahle or Lopez haul. It was, seemingly, a pretty simple assignment. Alas, the Twins front office failed it. Aside from a swap of struggling relievers that brought in Dylan Floro, they sat on their hands. And the negligence of this approach is only growing more apparent and upsetting as the exact scenario they were supposed to be protecting against plays out before our eyes. Minnesota's bullpen has fallen apart since the trade deadline. Over the past 20 days they've collectively been sub-replacement level with a -0.2 fWAR that ranks 26th in the majors. The have a 6.13 ERA during this span, compared to 3.01 for the starters. The relief corps completely melted down in Milwaukee over the past two days, blowing mid-game leads in both losses. Floro was at the head of the struggles with a nightmare outing on Tuesday. Now the Twins head into a four-game series against the Rangers in a beleaguered state, with Duran having thrown 33 pitches in taking the loss Wednesday. I'm not trying to oversimplify things here, by suggesting that one or two reliever additions at the deadline were going to definitively change the course of this bullpen. Maybe the acquisitions wouldn't work out; we've been there. Maybe they wouldn't have made enough difference; if Duran and other late-inning arms can't get on track, there will be no saving this bullpen. But to not even try? To not even add a single impact reliever who might reduce your reliance on Emilio Pagan to succeed in high leverage, or Caleb Thielbar to stay healthy, or Jax and Duran to not get run into the ground? It's truly one of the most baffling things I've ever seen. And if the Twins fall short in the playoffs, AGAIN, because they are one quality relief arm short ... or worse yet, miss the playoffs entirely because their bullpen isn't equipped for the task of holding up down the stretch ... it'll be tough to forgive this bizarrely complacent lapse from a front office that uncharacteristically played scared this time around. View full article
  2. With the benefit of hindsight, no one would say Minnesota's big trades at the deadline last year worked out. If they could go back and do it all over again, knowing what they know now, the front office certainly would not have traded away a bunch of prospects for Tyler Mahle and Jorge Lopez. But you know what? They didn't have the benefit of hindsight when they made those moves. All they had was the information available in real-time, which was this: The Twins were in first place in a winnable division, and they had some clear flaws that they needed to address if they were going to make a real run at the thing. Last July, those needs were pretty significant. They needed a credible frontline starter to plug in alongside Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan, and a high-caliber reliever to complement Jhoan Duran in the late innings. The Twins swung big. They gave up decent prospect packages to acquire Mahle and Lopez all along with extra years of service for both. The front office knew the risk factors attached to both players -- Mahle's injury concerns and Lopez's unconvincing long-term track record -- but didn't know both would come fully to fruition. The front office also couldn't have guessed that even if both pickups played exactly up to optimistic expectations, it wouldn't have mattered because the entire roster collapsed in an injury epidemic. All the Twins front office knew at the time was where they were at and what they needed. They acted accordingly. The last takeaway you'd want the club to draw from this experience is that risks aren't worth taking. After all, some of this regime's greatest and most impactful moves have been the payoffs of bold risk-taking, for example: Dealing their 100+ MPH throwing top pitching prospect Brusdar Graterol to the Dodgers for Kenta Maeda. Dealing their 100+ MPH throwing top draft pick Chase Petty to the Reds for Sonny Gray. Trading their reigning batting champ Luis Arraez to the Marlins for Pablo Lopez. Those moves led us to where the Twins are at today, with an elite rotation featuring three playoff-caliber starters. And for some reason, upon reaching this long-awaited moment they've been building toward, the front office passed up the opportunity to provide much-needed help for that unit and the rest of this team as it aims to reach the postseason and snap a 20-year curse. The team's needs at this past deadline were lesser in scale, but no less clearly evident. They needed bullpen help -- ideally a high-leverage arm, but even middle relief depth would help. Injuries to Brock Stewart and Jorge Alcala, combined with Jorge Lopez proving unusably bad, left the team's planned late-inning core severely lacking, in need of support. Adding one or two relatively trusted relief arms of the Michael Fulmer ilk would've done worlds for this unit's depth and stability. The cost for such assets would've been vastly less than a Mahle or Lopez haul. It was, seemingly, a pretty simple assignment. Alas, the Twins front office failed it. Aside from a swap of struggling relievers that brought in Dylan Floro, they sat on their hands. And the negligence of this approach is only growing more apparent and upsetting as the exact scenario they were supposed to be protecting against plays out before our eyes. Minnesota's bullpen has fallen apart since the trade deadline. Over the past 20 days they've collectively been sub-replacement level with a -0.2 fWAR that ranks 26th in the majors. The have a 6.13 ERA during this span, compared to 3.01 for the starters. The relief corps completely melted down in Milwaukee over the past two days, blowing mid-game leads in both losses. Floro was at the head of the struggles with a nightmare outing on Tuesday. Now the Twins head into a four-game series against the Rangers in a beleaguered state, with Duran having thrown 33 pitches in taking the loss Wednesday. I'm not trying to oversimplify things here, by suggesting that one or two reliever additions at the deadline were going to definitively change the course of this bullpen. Maybe the acquisitions wouldn't work out; we've been there. Maybe they wouldn't have made enough difference; if Duran and other late-inning arms can't get on track, there will be no saving this bullpen. But to not even try? To not even add a single impact reliever who might reduce your reliance on Emilio Pagan to succeed in high leverage, or Caleb Thielbar to stay healthy, or Jax and Duran to not get run into the ground? It's truly one of the most baffling things I've ever seen. And if the Twins fall short in the playoffs, AGAIN, because they are one quality relief arm short ... or worse yet, miss the playoffs entirely because their bullpen isn't equipped for the task of holding up down the stretch ... it'll be tough to forgive this bizarrely complacent lapse from a front office that uncharacteristically played scared this time around.
  3. The Minnesota Twins made it their mission to have substantial depth this season. They have accomplished that both on the mound and in the field, but there is somewhat of an exodus in the rotation heading into 2024. Will any of the free agents come back, and if so, which one? Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports After seeing Rocco Baldelli hamstrung with bad pitching performances and exhausting his options over the past few seasons, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine built a strong stable for the starting rotation. That led to Bailey Ober and Louie Varland beginning the year with Triple-A St. Paul, and Toby Gardenhire’s group had plenty of mouths to feed. Beyond the big-league rotation, Minnesota still has Varland at Triple-A. Dallas Keuchel has now made two starts for the Twins. Simeon Woods Richardson has shown flashes, and Brent Headrick is a prospect in limbo. Marco Raya and David Festa could also be options to debut next season. Looking forward to 2024, the Twins will have open spots in the rotation as Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, and the currently-injured Tyler Mahle all head out into free agency. The question is, do any of them come back, and what would that look like? Least Likely - Sonny Gray Minnesota never seriously wanted to consider dealing Gray during the season but was approached by the Tigers about a three-way opportunity with them landing Eduardo Rodriguez. Either way, they would likely pitch him into the postseason and hand him a qualifying offer when the dust settled. Gray has floated the idea of retiring, but it was likely positioning more than reality. The Twins would love to have him back at $20 million on a one-year deal, but it makes much more sense for him to target multiple years. A month ago, I outlined what that may look like, and the rich price tag there would take Minnesota out of competition for his services. Somewhat Unlikely - Kenta Maeda Brought to Major League Baseball by the Los Angeles Dodgers way back in 2016, Maeda’s contract was immediately weird in how it was structured. Just a $25 million deal through 2023, he had plenty of incentives to take things higher while protecting an organization against his potential arm issues. Minnesota flipped Brusdar Graterol for Maeda, and he provided the Twins with a Cy Young-caliber performance in 2020. His arm blew out, and the Tommy John surgery, always thought possible, reared its head. Across eight starts since returning from the IL, Maeda owns a shiny 2.47 ERA and is allowing just a .597 OPS against. Maeda’s market is unknown, but the Twins could be interested in sticking with a veteran they know. He’s 35 years old and unlikely to find a mega deal. A one or two-year agreement could make sense, and Maeda has shown well within the Twins organization. Familiarity could be something he values; even with the strong performance of late, his valuation shouldn’t be absurd. Most Likely - Tyler Mahle This move may irk fans who still hate the trade that sent Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand to the Cincinnati Reds. At the time, although aggressive, the move was very good, and blew up solely with Mahle blowing out his elbow. Minnesota should not bring him back exclusively to save face and pull something out of the deal, but this is a path they have taken before. Mahle will undoubtedly be unavailable to pitch in 2024. He underwent Tommy John surgery in May and will be eased back into action. There was some shoulder soreness briefly with the Reds, and regardless of where he rehabs, Mahle will look to get everything built back to competition level. This front office offered Michael Pineda an opportunity to work through surgery under the organization’s direction, and he rewarded them with some solid output. Chris Paddack was acquired as the focal point of a trade that included Emilio Pagan, and the controllable starter was available because of his injury concerns. The Twins also extended him, and he seems to be trending toward an Opening Day roster spot next year. If the Twins still believe in the upside they saw in Mahle when he was acquired, bringing him back on a team-friendly deal makes a lot of sense. He noted that Minnesota felt like a good place to be, and pitching depth with strong upside while avoiding substantial cost is a good way to build. Is there a starter that you want the Twins to bring back for 2024? How far do you want them to go to make that happen? View full article
  4. After seeing Rocco Baldelli hamstrung with bad pitching performances and exhausting his options over the past few seasons, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine built a strong stable for the starting rotation. That led to Bailey Ober and Louie Varland beginning the year with Triple-A St. Paul, and Toby Gardenhire’s group had plenty of mouths to feed. Beyond the big-league rotation, Minnesota still has Varland at Triple-A. Dallas Keuchel has now made two starts for the Twins. Simeon Woods Richardson has shown flashes, and Brent Headrick is a prospect in limbo. Marco Raya and David Festa could also be options to debut next season. Looking forward to 2024, the Twins will have open spots in the rotation as Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, and the currently-injured Tyler Mahle all head out into free agency. The question is, do any of them come back, and what would that look like? Least Likely - Sonny Gray Minnesota never seriously wanted to consider dealing Gray during the season but was approached by the Tigers about a three-way opportunity with them landing Eduardo Rodriguez. Either way, they would likely pitch him into the postseason and hand him a qualifying offer when the dust settled. Gray has floated the idea of retiring, but it was likely positioning more than reality. The Twins would love to have him back at $20 million on a one-year deal, but it makes much more sense for him to target multiple years. A month ago, I outlined what that may look like, and the rich price tag there would take Minnesota out of competition for his services. Somewhat Unlikely - Kenta Maeda Brought to Major League Baseball by the Los Angeles Dodgers way back in 2016, Maeda’s contract was immediately weird in how it was structured. Just a $25 million deal through 2023, he had plenty of incentives to take things higher while protecting an organization against his potential arm issues. Minnesota flipped Brusdar Graterol for Maeda, and he provided the Twins with a Cy Young-caliber performance in 2020. His arm blew out, and the Tommy John surgery, always thought possible, reared its head. Across eight starts since returning from the IL, Maeda owns a shiny 2.47 ERA and is allowing just a .597 OPS against. Maeda’s market is unknown, but the Twins could be interested in sticking with a veteran they know. He’s 35 years old and unlikely to find a mega deal. A one or two-year agreement could make sense, and Maeda has shown well within the Twins organization. Familiarity could be something he values; even with the strong performance of late, his valuation shouldn’t be absurd. Most Likely - Tyler Mahle This move may irk fans who still hate the trade that sent Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand to the Cincinnati Reds. At the time, although aggressive, the move was very good, and blew up solely with Mahle blowing out his elbow. Minnesota should not bring him back exclusively to save face and pull something out of the deal, but this is a path they have taken before. Mahle will undoubtedly be unavailable to pitch in 2024. He underwent Tommy John surgery in May and will be eased back into action. There was some shoulder soreness briefly with the Reds, and regardless of where he rehabs, Mahle will look to get everything built back to competition level. This front office offered Michael Pineda an opportunity to work through surgery under the organization’s direction, and he rewarded them with some solid output. Chris Paddack was acquired as the focal point of a trade that included Emilio Pagan, and the controllable starter was available because of his injury concerns. The Twins also extended him, and he seems to be trending toward an Opening Day roster spot next year. If the Twins still believe in the upside they saw in Mahle when he was acquired, bringing him back on a team-friendly deal makes a lot of sense. He noted that Minnesota felt like a good place to be, and pitching depth with strong upside while avoiding substantial cost is a good way to build. Is there a starter that you want the Twins to bring back for 2024? How far do you want them to go to make that happen?
  5. August 1st is quickly approaching and the Minnesota Twins are leading the AL Central. They should be expected to win the division, and that could be argued as true even without reinforcements. They will bring some in, but don’t expect the big splashes. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports A season ago Derek Falvey and Thad Levine swung some of the biggest trades in franchise history. They acquired Sonny Gray before the season, sending top pitching prospect Chase Petty to Cincinnati. They flipped Taylor Rogers on the doorstep of Opening Day to acquire Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan. Then at the deadline they went gangbusters adding Tyler Mahle, Michael Fulmer, and Jorge Lopez. The trades the front office made prior to the season have worked out well for the Twins, but the group they made at the deadline have virtually all blown up. Mahle blew out his arm. Lopez has often looked lost. While Fulmer was fine, he faded down the stretch. Aside from the Baltimore deal, none of those swaps were all the egregious when considering track record and future value. Still though, even with a sound process, Minnesota has to feel a bit more cautious. Then there’s the reality that Rocco Baldelli’s roster doesn’t have many openings. Where are the Twins going to play new faces? Would Paul Goldschmidt or Cody Bellinger find their way into a regular rotation? Sure they would. Do the Twins really want to part with the prospect capital and further complicate a left-hand heavy outfield, or move Alex Kirilloff around the diamond? Max Kepler has played right field all year in spite of Matt Wallner’s emergence, and that is a swap that could have been made internally. Left field is manned by Joey Gallo and whatever other rotational outfielder figures in. Michael A. Taylor is stretched as an every day player, but his defense has been exceptional with Byron Buxton unable to contribute defensively. Buxton himself blocks the designated hitter spot. Second base has been taken over by Edouard Julien with Jorge Polanco coming back. No one is bumping Carlos Correa off of shortstop, and the starting rotation may be among the best in baseball. While Minnesota has succumbed to a level of mediocrity for most of the year, the reality is that it’s a byproduct of already-talented players underperforming. The Twins simply don’t have enough positional flexibility, or openings, for the front office to add like crazy this season. It still stands to reason that a right-handed bat makes sense. Ideally, that player would also play the outfield, and come with some team control. The Twins haven’t been keen on trading for rentals, and someone like Dylan Carlson would fit that bill nicely. He’s still going to command a premium being under team control through 2026, but Carlson is just a 24-year-old with league average offensive numbers and can play strong defense. Beyond that type of addition, it makes sense for Baldelli to be given more help in the bullpen. With both Brock Stewart and Caleb Thielbar still on the injured list, the group of Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and Jorge Lopez need more help. Emilio Pagan has rebounded nicely, but finding a way to avoid rostering Cole Sands or cycling through arms has to be a goal. The Twins aren’t going to go and grab the best closer on the market, but getting someone capable of pitching in high-leverage situations, and propping up the overall ability of the bullpen, seems like a logical ask. Those types are always plentiful, and they shouldn’t cost much in terms of exchanged assets. Minnesota is absolutely looking to play well into the playoffs. Just because they have a weak schedule the rest of the way doesn’t mean they’ll coast and be content with where they are now. They aren’t going to blow the doors off the competition at the deadline, and their ability to win in October centers much more around the players already in the clubhouse. Inserting Royce Lewis and Jorge Polanco back into the lineup should help. The rotation will continue to give them a chance. How far they go from there is up to the performers needing to show up. I’m not sure what should be considered a well-executed trade deadline for Minnesota this year, but temper expectations if you think big names will be acquired. View full article
  6. A season ago Derek Falvey and Thad Levine swung some of the biggest trades in franchise history. They acquired Sonny Gray before the season, sending top pitching prospect Chase Petty to Cincinnati. They flipped Taylor Rogers on the doorstep of Opening Day to acquire Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan. Then at the deadline they went gangbusters adding Tyler Mahle, Michael Fulmer, and Jorge Lopez. The trades the front office made prior to the season have worked out well for the Twins, but the group they made at the deadline have virtually all blown up. Mahle blew out his arm. Lopez has often looked lost. While Fulmer was fine, he faded down the stretch. Aside from the Baltimore deal, none of those swaps were all the egregious when considering track record and future value. Still though, even with a sound process, Minnesota has to feel a bit more cautious. Then there’s the reality that Rocco Baldelli’s roster doesn’t have many openings. Where are the Twins going to play new faces? Would Paul Goldschmidt or Cody Bellinger find their way into a regular rotation? Sure they would. Do the Twins really want to part with the prospect capital and further complicate a left-hand heavy outfield, or move Alex Kirilloff around the diamond? Max Kepler has played right field all year in spite of Matt Wallner’s emergence, and that is a swap that could have been made internally. Left field is manned by Joey Gallo and whatever other rotational outfielder figures in. Michael A. Taylor is stretched as an every day player, but his defense has been exceptional with Byron Buxton unable to contribute defensively. Buxton himself blocks the designated hitter spot. Second base has been taken over by Edouard Julien with Jorge Polanco coming back. No one is bumping Carlos Correa off of shortstop, and the starting rotation may be among the best in baseball. While Minnesota has succumbed to a level of mediocrity for most of the year, the reality is that it’s a byproduct of already-talented players underperforming. The Twins simply don’t have enough positional flexibility, or openings, for the front office to add like crazy this season. It still stands to reason that a right-handed bat makes sense. Ideally, that player would also play the outfield, and come with some team control. The Twins haven’t been keen on trading for rentals, and someone like Dylan Carlson would fit that bill nicely. He’s still going to command a premium being under team control through 2026, but Carlson is just a 24-year-old with league average offensive numbers and can play strong defense. Beyond that type of addition, it makes sense for Baldelli to be given more help in the bullpen. With both Brock Stewart and Caleb Thielbar still on the injured list, the group of Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and Jorge Lopez need more help. Emilio Pagan has rebounded nicely, but finding a way to avoid rostering Cole Sands or cycling through arms has to be a goal. The Twins aren’t going to go and grab the best closer on the market, but getting someone capable of pitching in high-leverage situations, and propping up the overall ability of the bullpen, seems like a logical ask. Those types are always plentiful, and they shouldn’t cost much in terms of exchanged assets. Minnesota is absolutely looking to play well into the playoffs. Just because they have a weak schedule the rest of the way doesn’t mean they’ll coast and be content with where they are now. They aren’t going to blow the doors off the competition at the deadline, and their ability to win in October centers much more around the players already in the clubhouse. Inserting Royce Lewis and Jorge Polanco back into the lineup should help. The rotation will continue to give them a chance. How far they go from there is up to the performers needing to show up. I’m not sure what should be considered a well-executed trade deadline for Minnesota this year, but temper expectations if you think big names will be acquired.
  7. Even in a diminished state, the former Cy Young winner could play a valuable role in preserving the Twins' elite rotation for the later stages of the season. (And beyond?) Image courtesy of Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports When the Twins signed Dallas Keuchel to a minor-league contract last month, it caught many of us off-guard. Once known as one of the best left-handed starters in the game, Keuchel had faded in recent years as his already modest velocity dropped to untenable levels. Last year, three different teams gave him chances. Keuchel pitched poorly for the White Sox, Diamondbacks and Rangers, finishing the season with a 9.20 ERA in 14 starts. In 2022, he posted a 5.28 ERA in 162 innings for Chicago. Turning 35 in January and unsigned during the offseason, it appeared as though the southpaw might hang 'em up. Instead, he committed himself to a comeback, working out at the esteemed Driveline facilities in hopes of regaining a few ticks on his fastball and attracting a curious team's attention. That it turned out to be the Twins he attracted – or, the team that most attracted him, if had multiple suitors – is interesting. They have an amazingly strong rotation featuring stable, rock-solid, healthy options from front to back. Even after losing Tyler Mahle. But within the scope of this high-quality quintet – now lacking contingencies, with Mahle down and Louie Varland struggling in Triple-A – we find the possible underlying driver of Keuchel's acquisition. Minnesota's rotation has been the class of the league in the first half, but there's an elephant in the room: these pitchers are at major risk for running out of gas down the stretch. Among all Twins starters, only Pablo López threw more than 150 innings last year, at 180. Joe Ryan set a new professional workload high last year with 147 innings – he'd never thrown even 125 in a season before. Sonny Gray was limited to 120 innings due to multiple injured list stints, and hasn't thrown 150 in a season since 2019. (For what it's worth, both have seen their results falter somewhat in recent weeks as they've approached the 100-IP mark.) Kenta Maeda missed all of last season while recovering from elbow surgery, after throwing 106 innings in 2021 and 67 in 2020. Bailey Ober threw only 77 innings for the Twins in a 2022 campaign tanked by injuries, and he's never surpassed 100 innings in a season as a pro. While we should all be enjoying the epic greatness of this Twins rotation, we should also recognize its precariousness heading into uncharted waters for the stretch run. Or, more pertinently: the front office needs to recognize it. And the Keuchel signing seems like a sign that they do. This front office, and Rocco Baldelli, are evidently keen to the idea of a six-man rotation. They opened the season with one in 2022, and assembled the personnel for one again this year by acquiring López. They instead opted to stick with five starters out of the gates, and have kept it that way mostly due to circumstance. But as workloads mount and depth options thin out, the Twins saw a need for another semi-reliable pitcher to potentially groom for that arm-preserving sixth starter role. Enter: Dallas Keuchel. The five current Twins starters have set an incredibly high bar with their performance that Keuchel, in his present form, has almost no hope of reaching. But the Twins aren't realistically asking for that – merely a capable arm that can give them some innings at a league average-ish level while giving the team's other starters (not to mention their beleaguered bullpen) a break. Minnesota is no lock to make the playoffs as is, but they have zero hope if their starters or top relievers start breaking down. Keuchel strikes me as a strategic reinforcement intended to increase the chances of key fixtures like Gray, Ober, and Jhoan Duran staying healthy and effective into September and (hopefully) October. The question becomes: is Keuchel up to the task? The Twins cannot afford to be throwing away games with replacement-level starters, and needless to say, their offense doesn't provide much margin for error. If you're getting the 2021-22 version of Keuchel, then you might as well just give the nod to Varland and let him take the lumps. The Twins are hoping Keuchel can prove to be a better option for this utility on multiple levels. First, performance – whereas Varland has an 8.28 ERA in three starts since returning to the Saints, Keuchel comparatively has a 0.64 ERA in three starts since coming aboard. There's also this, though: Varland himself is a young developing arm whose usage needs to be managed carefully. The same is even more true for Simeon Woods Richardson, another (underperforming) option in Triple-A, who might soon be in line for a move to the bullpen. Therein lies the hidden appeal of Keuchel: He is a historically durable and resilient veteran arm whose longevity the Twins need not worry about one iota. To the extent his on-field results make it feasible, Baldelli could ride Keuchel a little bit and squeeze some innings for the benefit of his other starters and relievers. Already Keuchel has pushed to almost 90 pitches in his minor-league build-up, which seems a promising sign. Again, this whole concept is contingent on Keuchel pitching to an acceptable level, which is perhaps a reach. That said, the Twins have reason to be heartened by some of the other success stories they've seen out of Driveline, and the southpaw's initial results for St. Paul – albeit against Triple-A hitters – are encouraging. The 11-to-8 K/BB ratio, maybe not so much, but Keuchel is keeping his pitches off the barrels of opposing hitters and that's something he made his name on. With an opt-out reportedly upcoming in his contract later this month, a decision point is not far off for the Twins. Surely Keuchel did not sign here with an intention of pitching at Triple-A for two months. If my (speculative!) suspicion is correct, and the rotation is able to keep avoiding injures, we will likely see Keuchel up in the majors as an additive piece to the rotation, ideally helping the Twins navigate the second half – including a stretch coming out of the break where they play 29 games in 31 days – without need to fret as much over the compounding workloads for the starting pitching corps that their fate depends on. View full article
  8. The Minnesota Twins wrapped up their first half of baseball with a sweep at the hands of the Baltimore Orioles. After taking two of three at Camden Yards a week ago, they fell a game below .500 heading into the All-Star Break. What can we make of the season thus far? Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports To say that Rocco Baldelli, Derek Falvey, and Thad Levine hoped this collection would be playing better is selling it short. There is no denying that a Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa-led offense should be better, and one of the game's best starting rotations is suffering for it. Although the Cleveland Guardians don't look like a juggernaut, they will begin the second half leading the division, and it's on the players in Minnesota's clubhouse to find a way to close the gap. What was remarkable, ugly, and everything in between at times? Here are some takeaways from the first half. 1. The AL Central is a Terrible Division Maybe this could have been expected with the Guardians doing so little over the offseason and the White Sox's most significant move being Andrew Benintendi, or the removal of Tony La Russa. At any rate, the latter has continued to be terrible, while the former has remained mediocre. Terry Francona took the division for Cleveland last year when the Twins threw it away. They are trying to do it again at the halfway point this season, but calling any of the contending teams' real playoff threats would be lying. 2. Pitching and Defense Aren't Enough Coming into the year, this Twins team looked like it was going to pitch, and there was hope they could field. Questions about the lineup were present, and additions such as Joey Gallo and Christian Vazquez didn't bring the warm fuzzies to consistent production. Seeing Buxton be limited to a hit-or-miss designated hitter and Correa a shell of himself, the lineup has been among the worst in the sport. 3. The Old Guard is Dug In Over the offseason, the front office had opportunities to move on from Max Kepler and chose not to. They are determined for him to show a shred of value, which continues to come at the expense of such youth as Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner. The Twins roster is hampered enough by having a strict designated hitter, but their handedness in the outfield, and a right fielder producing little value, has drug things down further. 4. Bullpen Depth Wasn't Considered As has been the case for most of the tenure under this front office, the bullpen remains an afterthought. You don't have to spend big like the White Sox have, but not doing anything has continued to bite this group. Adding nothing more than minor league free agents left Brock Stewart and Jose De Leon as necessary developments rather than pleasant surprises. With Jorge Lopez regressing, Emilio Pagan unable to pitch in leverage, and Joah Duran only backed by Griffin Jax, Baldelli is hamstrung on a nightly basis. 5. A Big Deadline Looms, Again Last year the Twins found themselves floundering as they approached the trade deadline. With injuries crushing them all over the roster, they swung big, landing Tyler Mahle and Lopez. The former was an upside play, while the latter was a response to a poor unit. They have less prospect capital they want to trade this year, and the roster has fewer logical places to add. A bat has to come, and relief help must be on the way, but Minnesota can't get burned for the second year. 6. Belief in Better Only Goes So Far It's fair to assume that this Twins team should be much better. They lead the division in run differential by a substantial amount, and their Pythagorean record is far better than the mark in the standings. Expecting those things to correct themselves over 162 games is a logical ask, but at some point, time runs out. It's getting late early for this squad if they want to be better than what they have shown thus far. Thankfully the AL Central continues to leave the door wide open for Minnesota, but that will close as games go on, and this collection should only be given a pass if they capitalize on the opportunity. It will be a sprint to the finish, and anything but a division title following the regular season would be a failure. View full article
  9. To say that Rocco Baldelli, Derek Falvey, and Thad Levine hoped this collection would be playing better is selling it short. There is no denying that a Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa-led offense should be better, and one of the game's best starting rotations is suffering for it. Although the Cleveland Guardians don't look like a juggernaut, they will begin the second half leading the division, and it's on the players in Minnesota's clubhouse to find a way to close the gap. What was remarkable, ugly, and everything in between at times? Here are some takeaways from the first half. 1. The AL Central is a Terrible Division Maybe this could have been expected with the Guardians doing so little over the offseason and the White Sox's most significant move being Andrew Benintendi, or the removal of Tony La Russa. At any rate, the latter has continued to be terrible, while the former has remained mediocre. Terry Francona took the division for Cleveland last year when the Twins threw it away. They are trying to do it again at the halfway point this season, but calling any of the contending teams' real playoff threats would be lying. 2. Pitching and Defense Aren't Enough Coming into the year, this Twins team looked like it was going to pitch, and there was hope they could field. Questions about the lineup were present, and additions such as Joey Gallo and Christian Vazquez didn't bring the warm fuzzies to consistent production. Seeing Buxton be limited to a hit-or-miss designated hitter and Correa a shell of himself, the lineup has been among the worst in the sport. 3. The Old Guard is Dug In Over the offseason, the front office had opportunities to move on from Max Kepler and chose not to. They are determined for him to show a shred of value, which continues to come at the expense of such youth as Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner. The Twins roster is hampered enough by having a strict designated hitter, but their handedness in the outfield, and a right fielder producing little value, has drug things down further. 4. Bullpen Depth Wasn't Considered As has been the case for most of the tenure under this front office, the bullpen remains an afterthought. You don't have to spend big like the White Sox have, but not doing anything has continued to bite this group. Adding nothing more than minor league free agents left Brock Stewart and Jose De Leon as necessary developments rather than pleasant surprises. With Jorge Lopez regressing, Emilio Pagan unable to pitch in leverage, and Joah Duran only backed by Griffin Jax, Baldelli is hamstrung on a nightly basis. 5. A Big Deadline Looms, Again Last year the Twins found themselves floundering as they approached the trade deadline. With injuries crushing them all over the roster, they swung big, landing Tyler Mahle and Lopez. The former was an upside play, while the latter was a response to a poor unit. They have less prospect capital they want to trade this year, and the roster has fewer logical places to add. A bat has to come, and relief help must be on the way, but Minnesota can't get burned for the second year. 6. Belief in Better Only Goes So Far It's fair to assume that this Twins team should be much better. They lead the division in run differential by a substantial amount, and their Pythagorean record is far better than the mark in the standings. Expecting those things to correct themselves over 162 games is a logical ask, but at some point, time runs out. It's getting late early for this squad if they want to be better than what they have shown thus far. Thankfully the AL Central continues to leave the door wide open for Minnesota, but that will close as games go on, and this collection should only be given a pass if they capitalize on the opportunity. It will be a sprint to the finish, and anything but a division title following the regular season would be a failure.
  10. When the Twins signed Dallas Keuchel to a minor-league contract last month, it caught many of us off-guard. Once known as one of the best left-handed starters in the game, Keuchel had faded in recent years as his already modest velocity dropped to untenable levels. Last year, three different teams gave him chances. Keuchel pitched poorly for the White Sox, Diamondbacks and Rangers, finishing the season with a 9.20 ERA in 14 starts. In 2022, he posted a 5.28 ERA in 162 innings for Chicago. Turning 35 in January and unsigned during the offseason, it appeared as though the southpaw might hang 'em up. Instead, he committed himself to a comeback, working out at the esteemed Driveline facilities in hopes of regaining a few ticks on his fastball and attracting a curious team's attention. That it turned out to be the Twins he attracted – or, the team that most attracted him, if had multiple suitors – is interesting. They have an amazingly strong rotation featuring stable, rock-solid, healthy options from front to back. Even after losing Tyler Mahle. But within the scope of this high-quality quintet – now lacking contingencies, with Mahle down and Louie Varland struggling in Triple-A – we find the possible underlying driver of Keuchel's acquisition. Minnesota's rotation has been the class of the league in the first half, but there's an elephant in the room: these pitchers are at major risk for running out of gas down the stretch. Among all Twins starters, only Pablo López threw more than 150 innings last year, at 180. Joe Ryan set a new professional workload high last year with 147 innings – he'd never thrown even 125 in a season before. Sonny Gray was limited to 120 innings due to multiple injured list stints, and hasn't thrown 150 in a season since 2019. (For what it's worth, both have seen their results falter somewhat in recent weeks as they've approached the 100-IP mark.) Kenta Maeda missed all of last season while recovering from elbow surgery, after throwing 106 innings in 2021 and 67 in 2020. Bailey Ober threw only 77 innings for the Twins in a 2022 campaign tanked by injuries, and he's never surpassed 100 innings in a season as a pro. While we should all be enjoying the epic greatness of this Twins rotation, we should also recognize its precariousness heading into uncharted waters for the stretch run. Or, more pertinently: the front office needs to recognize it. And the Keuchel signing seems like a sign that they do. This front office, and Rocco Baldelli, are evidently keen to the idea of a six-man rotation. They opened the season with one in 2022, and assembled the personnel for one again this year by acquiring López. They instead opted to stick with five starters out of the gates, and have kept it that way mostly due to circumstance. But as workloads mount and depth options thin out, the Twins saw a need for another semi-reliable pitcher to potentially groom for that arm-preserving sixth starter role. Enter: Dallas Keuchel. The five current Twins starters have set an incredibly high bar with their performance that Keuchel, in his present form, has almost no hope of reaching. But the Twins aren't realistically asking for that – merely a capable arm that can give them some innings at a league average-ish level while giving the team's other starters (not to mention their beleaguered bullpen) a break. Minnesota is no lock to make the playoffs as is, but they have zero hope if their starters or top relievers start breaking down. Keuchel strikes me as a strategic reinforcement intended to increase the chances of key fixtures like Gray, Ober, and Jhoan Duran staying healthy and effective into September and (hopefully) October. The question becomes: is Keuchel up to the task? The Twins cannot afford to be throwing away games with replacement-level starters, and needless to say, their offense doesn't provide much margin for error. If you're getting the 2021-22 version of Keuchel, then you might as well just give the nod to Varland and let him take the lumps. The Twins are hoping Keuchel can prove to be a better option for this utility on multiple levels. First, performance – whereas Varland has an 8.28 ERA in three starts since returning to the Saints, Keuchel comparatively has a 0.64 ERA in three starts since coming aboard. There's also this, though: Varland himself is a young developing arm whose usage needs to be managed carefully. The same is even more true for Simeon Woods Richardson, another (underperforming) option in Triple-A, who might soon be in line for a move to the bullpen. Therein lies the hidden appeal of Keuchel: He is a historically durable and resilient veteran arm whose longevity the Twins need not worry about one iota. To the extent his on-field results make it feasible, Baldelli could ride Keuchel a little bit and squeeze some innings for the benefit of his other starters and relievers. Already Keuchel has pushed to almost 90 pitches in his minor-league build-up, which seems a promising sign. Again, this whole concept is contingent on Keuchel pitching to an acceptable level, which is perhaps a reach. That said, the Twins have reason to be heartened by some of the other success stories they've seen out of Driveline, and the southpaw's initial results for St. Paul – albeit against Triple-A hitters – are encouraging. The 11-to-8 K/BB ratio, maybe not so much, but Keuchel is keeping his pitches off the barrels of opposing hitters and that's something he made his name on. With an opt-out reportedly upcoming in his contract later this month, a decision point is not far off for the Twins. Surely Keuchel did not sign here with an intention of pitching at Triple-A for two months. If my (speculative!) suspicion is correct, and the rotation is able to keep avoiding injures, we will likely see Keuchel up in the majors as an additive piece to the rotation, ideally helping the Twins navigate the second half – including a stretch coming out of the break where they play 29 games in 31 days – without need to fret as much over the compounding workloads for the starting pitching corps that their fate depends on.
  11. Every team makes bad trades, but some trades look even worse in retrospect. Here is a ranking of the five worst trades made by the current front office. Image courtesy of Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports MLB’s 2023 Trade Deadline is scheduled for August 1st, and the Twins will likely need to add pieces to keep themselves in contention. Before the deadline, looking at previous years and how this front office has approached the trading process is critical. This series will look at some of the best and worst trades made by the current front office. 5. Luis Arraez for Pablo Lopez, Jose Salas, and Byron Chourio Trade Date: January 20th, 2023 Many fans may view the Arraez for Lopez swap as a bad deal because of Arraez’s start to his Marlins tenure. However, the Twins wanted more starting pitching depth, and the Marlins wanted a hitter. Salas was the top prospect acquired by the Twins, and he started slowly in 2023. There is still time for the Twins to gain value from the Lopez-Arraez swap, but it’s hard not to imagine what Arraez could mean to Minnesota’s offense, which has struggled to make consistent contact. 4. Prelander Berroa, Kai-Wei Teng, and Jaylin Davis for Sam Dyson Trade Date: July 31st, 2019 Dyson was Minnesota’s key bullpen acquisition at the 2019 trade deadline, but poor performance and injury marred his Twins tenure. In 12 appearances (11 1/3 innings), he allowed nine earned runs with a 1.77 WHIP and 2.4 HR/9. Dyson eventually revealed that he had been pitching with some discomfort, and the Twins investigated what the Giants knew about the injury before the trade. There was no evidence that San Francisco had any knowledge of an injury. Dyson hasn’t pitched since his last appearance for the Twins, and MLB suspended him for the entire 2021 season for violating the league’s domestic violence policy. Overall, it was a bad trade from start to finish for the Twins. 3. Juan Nunez, Cade Povich, Juan Rojas, and Yennier Cano for Jorge Lopez Trade Date: August 2, 2022 Last season, Lopez was an All-Star in his first year as a reliever, and he was supposed to be the missing piece from the Twins’ bullpen. Following the trade, he posted a 4.37 ERA with a 1.63 WHIP and an 18-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 22 2/3 innings. His 2023 season started strongly as he didn’t allow an earned run in the first month, but his on-field performance declined in recent weeks, and the team put him on the IL to work on his mental health. Yennier Cano has been one of the AL’s best relievers this season, while Cade Povich has pitched well and is on the cusp of making his big-league debut. This trade has looked bad so far and might only look worse in the future. 2. Taylor Rogers and Brent Rooker for Chris Paddack, Emilio Pagan, and Brayan Medina Trade Date: April 7th, 2022 The timing of this trade will always be questionable. On the eve of Opening Day, the Twins shipped out their best late-inning reliever to the Padres in a five-person trade. Rogers was entering his final year of team control, and there was some value in the return package. Chris Paddack pitched well in five starts for the Twins, but he eventually needed Tommy John surgery. Emilio Pagan has been one of baseball’s worst relievers since the trade while posting a -1.60 WPA. Rogers and Rooker provided little value to the Padres, but it will always seem odd that the club made this move close to Opening Day. 1. Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Steve Hajjar for Tyler Mahle Trade Date: August 2nd, 2022 Interestingly, one of Minnesota’s best trades has been with the Reds organization, and their worst trade has been with the same club. Evaluating players is tough, and the Twins knew they were surrendering significant value to acquire a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher. Mahle struggled to stay healthy and was limited to nine starts with the Twins. He underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this summer. Spencer Steer started slowly for the Reds but has turned a corner and looks like an above-average big leaguer. Christian Encarnacion-Strand has been dominating Triple-A pitching and is on pace to make his debut later this season. This trade will only look worse in the coming years. Check out the Twins Daily forums for more trade discussion from the current front office. How would you rank the above-listed trades? Would you have different trades on the list? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article
  12. MLB’s 2023 Trade Deadline is scheduled for August 1st, and the Twins will likely need to add pieces to keep themselves in contention. Before the deadline, looking at previous years and how this front office has approached the trading process is critical. This series will look at some of the best and worst trades made by the current front office. 5. Luis Arraez for Pablo Lopez, Jose Salas, and Byron Chourio Trade Date: January 20th, 2023 Many fans may view the Arraez for Lopez swap as a bad deal because of Arraez’s start to his Marlins tenure. However, the Twins wanted more starting pitching depth, and the Marlins wanted a hitter. Salas was the top prospect acquired by the Twins, and he started slowly in 2023. There is still time for the Twins to gain value from the Lopez-Arraez swap, but it’s hard not to imagine what Arraez could mean to Minnesota’s offense, which has struggled to make consistent contact. 4. Prelander Berroa, Kai-Wei Teng, and Jaylin Davis for Sam Dyson Trade Date: July 31st, 2019 Dyson was Minnesota’s key bullpen acquisition at the 2019 trade deadline, but poor performance and injury marred his Twins tenure. In 12 appearances (11 1/3 innings), he allowed nine earned runs with a 1.77 WHIP and 2.4 HR/9. Dyson eventually revealed that he had been pitching with some discomfort, and the Twins investigated what the Giants knew about the injury before the trade. There was no evidence that San Francisco had any knowledge of an injury. Dyson hasn’t pitched since his last appearance for the Twins, and MLB suspended him for the entire 2021 season for violating the league’s domestic violence policy. Overall, it was a bad trade from start to finish for the Twins. 3. Juan Nunez, Cade Povich, Juan Rojas, and Yennier Cano for Jorge Lopez Trade Date: August 2, 2022 Last season, Lopez was an All-Star in his first year as a reliever, and he was supposed to be the missing piece from the Twins’ bullpen. Following the trade, he posted a 4.37 ERA with a 1.63 WHIP and an 18-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 22 2/3 innings. His 2023 season started strongly as he didn’t allow an earned run in the first month, but his on-field performance declined in recent weeks, and the team put him on the IL to work on his mental health. Yennier Cano has been one of the AL’s best relievers this season, while Cade Povich has pitched well and is on the cusp of making his big-league debut. This trade has looked bad so far and might only look worse in the future. 2. Taylor Rogers and Brent Rooker for Chris Paddack, Emilio Pagan, and Brayan Medina Trade Date: April 7th, 2022 The timing of this trade will always be questionable. On the eve of Opening Day, the Twins shipped out their best late-inning reliever to the Padres in a five-person trade. Rogers was entering his final year of team control, and there was some value in the return package. Chris Paddack pitched well in five starts for the Twins, but he eventually needed Tommy John surgery. Emilio Pagan has been one of baseball’s worst relievers since the trade while posting a -1.60 WPA. Rogers and Rooker provided little value to the Padres, but it will always seem odd that the club made this move close to Opening Day. 1. Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Steve Hajjar for Tyler Mahle Trade Date: August 2nd, 2022 Interestingly, one of Minnesota’s best trades has been with the Reds organization, and their worst trade has been with the same club. Evaluating players is tough, and the Twins knew they were surrendering significant value to acquire a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher. Mahle struggled to stay healthy and was limited to nine starts with the Twins. He underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this summer. Spencer Steer started slowly for the Reds but has turned a corner and looks like an above-average big leaguer. Christian Encarnacion-Strand has been dominating Triple-A pitching and is on pace to make his debut later this season. This trade will only look worse in the coming years. Check out the Twins Daily forums for more trade discussion from the current front office. How would you rank the above-listed trades? Would you have different trades on the list? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
  13. The Minnesota Twins have arguably the best roster in the American League Central, but they have done very little to capitalize on opportunity and put distance between them and the competition. Looking at the trade deadline as an opportunity to improve, does the roster actually allow them an ability to do so? Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports Coming into the season Derek Falvey and Thad Levine did plenty to put a strong foot forward with 2023 being an opportunity to rebound. Joey Gallo was a decent bet as a comeback player, and Carlos Correa was signed to a long-term deal. Donovan Solano has proven to be a great utility option, and Kyle Farmer has been the glue guy you want in a clubhouse. If there were glaring areas that went untouched, it was the addition of a right-handed outfield bat, and the bullpen. Now though, with slightly more than a month until the Major League Baseball trade deadline, is there truly an opportunity for Minnesota to get better? The first part of the equation is what the club would be willing to give up. A season ago we saw aggressive moves made when parting with prospects like Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Cade Povich, and Yennier Cano. Those types are less evident across the Twins current top prospect landscape. Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee aren’t going anywhere. Edouard Julien and Emmanuel Rodriguez are likely untouchable as well. Dipping down beyond that, you get into players like Matt Wallner, Simeon Woods Richardson, Jose Salas, and David Festa. The former is really the only one that is currently producing, and he could find immediate time with the Twins should they move on from Max Kepler. Dealing anyone else at a depreciated value seems less than ideal. You could attempt to put Jose Miranda in this group as well, but piecing him out at pennies on the dollar doesn’t seem like a wise move. Then there is the current roster construction for Rocco Baldelli’s big league club. The infield spots are all but established with Alex Kirilloff at first, and Julien at second while Jorge Polanco is shelved. The left side isn’t changing, and catcher is already a committed spot with Ryan Jeffers eating into Christian Vazquez’s time despite his $30 million offseason deal. In the outfield there is need for center help behind Michael A. Taylor since Byron Buxton can’t play the field. On the corners though, there are more than enough suitors to make things work. Minnesota built rotation depth behind their top starters thanks to the emergence of Bailey Ober and Louie Varland. The latter is not quite there, but he can continue to be a security blanket for Kenta Maeda with the veteran returning from injury. Another arm may make sense, but it would need to be one near the top of the stable. If anything, the bullpen is where you have the most straightforward path to add. Behind Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and the nice surprise that has been Brock Stewart, leverage spots generate nail biting for the Twins. Jorge Lopez has regressed and may not work his way back, while Emilio Pagan has continued to show he can’t be trusted in key spots. Minnesota continues to work arms through, and while Caleb Thielbar has a spot when healthy, he’s been limited with injury of late. A season after going gangbusters at the deadline, it seems unlikely for Minnesota to have a similar path this time around. Both in assets they want to part with, and places to put new talent, there are more questions than answers. Adding a right-handed outfield bat and a reliever this offseason seemingly would’ve been much more straightforward simply dealing in dollars. The front office will need to acquire reinforcements of some sort if they want this group to hang onto the division, and make noise in the postseason. However, the way in which they find avenues to make it work could take a great deal of juggling. View full article
  14. Coming into the season Derek Falvey and Thad Levine did plenty to put a strong foot forward with 2023 being an opportunity to rebound. Joey Gallo was a decent bet as a comeback player, and Carlos Correa was signed to a long-term deal. Donovan Solano has proven to be a great utility option, and Kyle Farmer has been the glue guy you want in a clubhouse. If there were glaring areas that went untouched, it was the addition of a right-handed outfield bat, and the bullpen. Now though, with slightly more than a month until the Major League Baseball trade deadline, is there truly an opportunity for Minnesota to get better? The first part of the equation is what the club would be willing to give up. A season ago we saw aggressive moves made when parting with prospects like Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Cade Povich, and Yennier Cano. Those types are less evident across the Twins current top prospect landscape. Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee aren’t going anywhere. Edouard Julien and Emmanuel Rodriguez are likely untouchable as well. Dipping down beyond that, you get into players like Matt Wallner, Simeon Woods Richardson, Jose Salas, and David Festa. The former is really the only one that is currently producing, and he could find immediate time with the Twins should they move on from Max Kepler. Dealing anyone else at a depreciated value seems less than ideal. You could attempt to put Jose Miranda in this group as well, but piecing him out at pennies on the dollar doesn’t seem like a wise move. Then there is the current roster construction for Rocco Baldelli’s big league club. The infield spots are all but established with Alex Kirilloff at first, and Julien at second while Jorge Polanco is shelved. The left side isn’t changing, and catcher is already a committed spot with Ryan Jeffers eating into Christian Vazquez’s time despite his $30 million offseason deal. In the outfield there is need for center help behind Michael A. Taylor since Byron Buxton can’t play the field. On the corners though, there are more than enough suitors to make things work. Minnesota built rotation depth behind their top starters thanks to the emergence of Bailey Ober and Louie Varland. The latter is not quite there, but he can continue to be a security blanket for Kenta Maeda with the veteran returning from injury. Another arm may make sense, but it would need to be one near the top of the stable. If anything, the bullpen is where you have the most straightforward path to add. Behind Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and the nice surprise that has been Brock Stewart, leverage spots generate nail biting for the Twins. Jorge Lopez has regressed and may not work his way back, while Emilio Pagan has continued to show he can’t be trusted in key spots. Minnesota continues to work arms through, and while Caleb Thielbar has a spot when healthy, he’s been limited with injury of late. A season after going gangbusters at the deadline, it seems unlikely for Minnesota to have a similar path this time around. Both in assets they want to part with, and places to put new talent, there are more questions than answers. Adding a right-handed outfield bat and a reliever this offseason seemingly would’ve been much more straightforward simply dealing in dollars. The front office will need to acquire reinforcements of some sort if they want this group to hang onto the division, and make noise in the postseason. However, the way in which they find avenues to make it work could take a great deal of juggling.
  15. As the trade deadline gets closer, and knowing the Minnesota Twins could use help in 2023, it makes sense to look back at how this front office has made moves. They seem to have a pattern when it comes to extracting value, and it hasn’t always gone the right way for them. What can we learn for the moves yet to come? Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Whether evaluating offseason or deadline deals, the Twins have made a handful of aggressive moves over the past couple of years. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have sought to construct a roster capable of sustained winning, and they have done so in looking to provide depth across all position groups. Not knowing exactly what the Twins targets will be, or where, we can gain an understanding of what this regime has previously tried to do when acquiring value. The Mahle Move Last season, the Twins attempted to sustain their division lead by acquiring a starting pitcher. Rather than going for Frankie Montas, who was the top arm with the big name, they looked at the Reds Tyler Mahle. He put up very good underlying numbers in 2021 and a tweak or two could be argued to push him toward being an ace. In parting with both Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Minnesota saw two prospects that were really bat-only players. Steer has some positional flexibility, but shouldn't be expected to win any Gold Gloves. Encarnacion-Strand was definitely not going to defend at all, and that left both behind at least a few players in the pecking order. Two prospect bats for a starting arm with upside is where this one likely fell. The Paddack Acquisition Although it was moving their closer Taylor Rogers for a San Diego reliever in Emilio Pagan, the Opening Day trade was absolutely about Chris Paddack. Minnesota’s front office was clearly unsure of Rogers’ health coming off an injury, and heading into free agency, he wasn’t likely going to be back. Pagan gave the Twins an opportunity for an immediate relief replacement, but Paddack and his team control were too much to pass up. He could be had for a reliever because the health and durability concerns are real, but that was baked into the cost. Paddack looked strong for Minnesota before blowing out last season, but he’ll get an opportunity to contribute again as he works his way back. Capitalizing on a leverage reliever for a shot at a proven arm (when healthy) seems to be this thought process. Working Into Maeda When the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers were attempting to swap pieces for Mookie Betts, Minnesota did well to get involved. Needing serious pitching help at the time, Kenta Maeda was an arm that had shown good run in California. He’d been bumped from the rotation at times, but also flashed much of the promise that made him a heralded free agent acquisition. Despite not having much firepower in relief, the Twins gave away Brusdar Graterol. Though he could pump triple-digits and looked like a future closer, finding an opportunity to get a high quality starter out of him was definitely a win. Maeda’s contract was written to plan for injury, ultimately happening for the Twins, but not before some very strong work after coming to Minnesota. Swapping a reliever for a starter with upside again was the gamble being taken. Lopez For Closer Last season, when the Twins needed help at the deadline, they looked at the bullpen as an area to upgrade. Jorge Lopez was an All-Star for the Baltimore Orioles, and despite a career of futility as a starter, 48 innings as a reliever made him coveted. The Twins wanted Lopez so badly they parted with a prominent pitching prospect in Cade Povich, and also parted with Yennier Cano. The former was the prize of this package while the latter was a likely DFA candidate for Minnesota during the offseason. Relief pitching can be fickle and nothing highlights that more than the directions Lopez and Cano have gone since. Minnesota made this move at the height of a reliever’s value and did so, giving up a prospect that could burn them later. Starting With Lopez Arguably the most contentious trade the Twins have made in recent years involved Luis Arraez. The Miami Marlins had a few coveted pitchers and while the Twins would've liked to grab Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara, they did well to target Pablo Lopez. Coming off of three strong years posting a 3.52 ERA, Lopez has underlying numbers that suggest he can be a quality arm with the ability to pitch up in the rotation. Minnesota needing pitching and to create depth, he was acquired and then extended to a long term deal. It was never going to be easy moving on from Arraez. He was absolutely a fan favorite and is elite when it comes to arguably the most important skill in the game, hitting. Now batting .400 with Miami, there was never a doubt that he would be an asset with the bat. Minnesota didn't believe in his knees long term, and as a poor defender, it was clear that was a price they felt comfortable paying to get a good pitcher. Again, a difficult pill to swallow, a relatively one-dimensional hitter was the guy they felt ok with using to acquire strong pitching. For the most part we can see that this front office has looked for unique ways to generate additional value. Whether that be gambling on injury as was the case with Maeda and Paddack, or playing for upside with blocked prospects as they did with Mahle. The outlier seems to be a true go-for-it type or immediate move that Lopez could be defined as, and that’s an outcome they’ll need to avoid in the future. If there's a win for both sides, the most straightforward move to pin that on would have been the Marlins trade. How the Twins navigate this trade deadline remains to be seen, but the pattern is an established one. Clearly they have a level of risk tolerance that trends towards them seeking future value with some current question. They have often avoided reactionary moves as a whole. That plan is an understandable one, but they need it to bear more fruit than they have seen of late. View full article
  16. Whether evaluating offseason or deadline deals, the Twins have made a handful of aggressive moves over the past couple of years. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have sought to construct a roster capable of sustained winning, and they have done so in looking to provide depth across all position groups. Not knowing exactly what the Twins targets will be, or where, we can gain an understanding of what this regime has previously tried to do when acquiring value. The Mahle Move Last season, the Twins attempted to sustain their division lead by acquiring a starting pitcher. Rather than going for Frankie Montas, who was the top arm with the big name, they looked at the Reds Tyler Mahle. He put up very good underlying numbers in 2021 and a tweak or two could be argued to push him toward being an ace. In parting with both Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Minnesota saw two prospects that were really bat-only players. Steer has some positional flexibility, but shouldn't be expected to win any Gold Gloves. Encarnacion-Strand was definitely not going to defend at all, and that left both behind at least a few players in the pecking order. Two prospect bats for a starting arm with upside is where this one likely fell. The Paddack Acquisition Although it was moving their closer Taylor Rogers for a San Diego reliever in Emilio Pagan, the Opening Day trade was absolutely about Chris Paddack. Minnesota’s front office was clearly unsure of Rogers’ health coming off an injury, and heading into free agency, he wasn’t likely going to be back. Pagan gave the Twins an opportunity for an immediate relief replacement, but Paddack and his team control were too much to pass up. He could be had for a reliever because the health and durability concerns are real, but that was baked into the cost. Paddack looked strong for Minnesota before blowing out last season, but he’ll get an opportunity to contribute again as he works his way back. Capitalizing on a leverage reliever for a shot at a proven arm (when healthy) seems to be this thought process. Working Into Maeda When the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers were attempting to swap pieces for Mookie Betts, Minnesota did well to get involved. Needing serious pitching help at the time, Kenta Maeda was an arm that had shown good run in California. He’d been bumped from the rotation at times, but also flashed much of the promise that made him a heralded free agent acquisition. Despite not having much firepower in relief, the Twins gave away Brusdar Graterol. Though he could pump triple-digits and looked like a future closer, finding an opportunity to get a high quality starter out of him was definitely a win. Maeda’s contract was written to plan for injury, ultimately happening for the Twins, but not before some very strong work after coming to Minnesota. Swapping a reliever for a starter with upside again was the gamble being taken. Lopez For Closer Last season, when the Twins needed help at the deadline, they looked at the bullpen as an area to upgrade. Jorge Lopez was an All-Star for the Baltimore Orioles, and despite a career of futility as a starter, 48 innings as a reliever made him coveted. The Twins wanted Lopez so badly they parted with a prominent pitching prospect in Cade Povich, and also parted with Yennier Cano. The former was the prize of this package while the latter was a likely DFA candidate for Minnesota during the offseason. Relief pitching can be fickle and nothing highlights that more than the directions Lopez and Cano have gone since. Minnesota made this move at the height of a reliever’s value and did so, giving up a prospect that could burn them later. Starting With Lopez Arguably the most contentious trade the Twins have made in recent years involved Luis Arraez. The Miami Marlins had a few coveted pitchers and while the Twins would've liked to grab Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara, they did well to target Pablo Lopez. Coming off of three strong years posting a 3.52 ERA, Lopez has underlying numbers that suggest he can be a quality arm with the ability to pitch up in the rotation. Minnesota needing pitching and to create depth, he was acquired and then extended to a long term deal. It was never going to be easy moving on from Arraez. He was absolutely a fan favorite and is elite when it comes to arguably the most important skill in the game, hitting. Now batting .400 with Miami, there was never a doubt that he would be an asset with the bat. Minnesota didn't believe in his knees long term, and as a poor defender, it was clear that was a price they felt comfortable paying to get a good pitcher. Again, a difficult pill to swallow, a relatively one-dimensional hitter was the guy they felt ok with using to acquire strong pitching. For the most part we can see that this front office has looked for unique ways to generate additional value. Whether that be gambling on injury as was the case with Maeda and Paddack, or playing for upside with blocked prospects as they did with Mahle. The outlier seems to be a true go-for-it type or immediate move that Lopez could be defined as, and that’s an outcome they’ll need to avoid in the future. If there's a win for both sides, the most straightforward move to pin that on would have been the Marlins trade. How the Twins navigate this trade deadline remains to be seen, but the pattern is an established one. Clearly they have a level of risk tolerance that trends towards them seeking future value with some current question. They have often avoided reactionary moves as a whole. That plan is an understandable one, but they need it to bear more fruit than they have seen of late.
  17. Although the Tyler Mahle trade has been deemed a failure, the Twins shouldn't cut the cord just yet. Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports On August 2, 2022, the Minnesota Twins traded Spencer Steer (7th-ranked prospect), Christian Encarnacion-Strand (23rd-ranked prospect), and Steve Hajjar (18th-ranked prospect) to the Cincinnati Reds for starting pitcher Tyler Mahle. At the time, fans and analysts almost unanimously viewed the trade as a win for the Twins. Ten months later, the trade is considered one of the worst in Twins history. Steer has become an everyday utility player for the Reds, hitting .286/.365/.482 (.861) and a wRC+ of 124. Steer also sports an fWAR of 0.8 which is higher than every Twins position player not named Ryan Jeffers (1.0 fWAR), Michael A. Taylor (1.0 fWAR), Byron Buxton (0.9 fWAR), Willi Castro (0.8 fWAR), or Alex Kirilloff (0.8 fWAR). As he did in the Twins system last year, Encarnacion-Strand has skyrocketed through the Cincinnati Reds minor league system and is hitting .353/.413/.706 (1.11) with a wRC+ of 172 with the Triple-A Louisville Bats, and Hajjar has since been traded to the Cleveland Guardians as part of the Will Benson trade between the Reds and Guardians on March 25. Meanwhile, Mahle started nine games and pitched 42.0 innings before the Twins announced that Mahle would need to undergo Tommy John surgery on May 11. The Twins lost this trade. There is no more room for interpretation. Steer has been incredible, Encarnacion-Strand looks like he will be incredible, and Twins fans will inevitably be upset when Hajjar throws seven scoreless innings against the Twins while pitching for the Guardians in 2026. Although the Twins gave away three talented prospects that fans will have to watch perform well for other teams for what could be the next decade, those who follow the Twins shouldn't be too upset with the organization as the process the front office took in trading for Mahle was sound and the right move at the time, as the Twins were in first place and contending for a division title, it just happened not to work out. That said, the Twins should not be done with Mahle just yet. Instead, they should extend him to a multiyear contract. It may seem like I am falling victim to the sunk-cost fallacy, but Mahle is an above-average pitcher that the Twins should look to sign while his perceived value is relatively low. Through nine games with the Twins, Mahle has achieved a 3.64 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 4.73 FIP while giving up nine walks, 35 hits, and 40 strikeouts. When looking at Mahle's performance as a Twin, the number that catches one's eye is his elite WHIP of just 1.05. Mahle is elite when it comes to limiting baserunners, which is a skill that every franchise values highly. Mahle throws an above-average slider and splitter to confuse both left and right-handed batters, but what makes Mahle truly special is his elite fastball. Mahle, who stands at six-foot-three, pointedly bends his knee at the end of his wind-up, creating a rising effect on his fastball, similar to fellow Twins pitcher Joe Ryan and Cleveland Guardians pitcher Triston McKenzie. Mahle's ability to generate what is essentially a "rising fastball," which is an optical illusion in itself, is evidenced by Mahle's 80th-percentile extension rate and 76th-percentile Fastball Spin rate. Mahle's elite fastball, which sits around 93-94 MPH, led to him generating a K% of 27.5% and a BB% of just 4.9%, both elite numbers on each end of the spectrum. Mahle, like any pitcher, is not perfect. Mahle is a fly-ball pitcher, and although this archetype tends to work well while pitching most of one’s games at Target Field, it does mean that Mahle is prone to giving up home runs, especially on the road, which was evidenced during his start against the Yankees on April 15, when he gave up two home runs through only 4.1 innings pitched. Although Mahle occasionally struggles with home runs, he is an above-average pitcher who, if given more opportunities while healthy, would greatly benefit from throwing most of his starts at Target Field, where Ballpark Pal currently ranks as the tenth hardest ballpark to hit home runs. What would Mahle's contract extension look like? Although signing a pitcher who recently underwent Tommy John surgery feels like something that would be complicated to work through, this iteration of the Twins front office has done this more than once. In December 2017, the Twins signed Michael Pineda, who had undergone Tommy John surgery in July of that year, to a two-year, $10 million contract that paid him $2 million while he recovered during the 2018 season and eight million dollars during what was expected to be Pineda's first full year back from surgery. Also, the Twins recently signed Chris Paddack, who underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2022, to a three-year, $12 million contract on January 14, 2023. Using Pineda and Paddack's contract as reference points, it would be fair to assume that Mahle's hypothetical contract would be in a similar ballpark. Mahle is a better pitcher than Pineda and Paddack were when they signed their respective contracts, so it is fair to assume that Mahle would require more of an investment if the Twins wanted to extend him. To predict, Mahle would likely request a contract somewhere in the two-year $20 million range that would pay him five million dollars to recover with the Twins in 2024 and then $15 million to pitch in what would hopefully be his first completely healthy season since his surgery in 2025. Evidently, the Twins find value in signing or extending high-variance starting pitchers whose value is low since they recently underwent Tommy John surgery. Many fans will label this as the Twins shopping in the "bargain section" for pitchers, but, on the flip side, this process could be seen as a savvy process in accruing low-cost pitching talent, especially when it comes to an above-average pitcher like Mahle. Should the Twins extend Mahle? What do you think Mahle's contract would look like? View full article
  18. On August 2, 2022, the Minnesota Twins traded Spencer Steer (7th-ranked prospect), Christian Encarnacion-Strand (23rd-ranked prospect), and Steve Hajjar (18th-ranked prospect) to the Cincinnati Reds for starting pitcher Tyler Mahle. At the time, fans and analysts almost unanimously viewed the trade as a win for the Twins. Ten months later, the trade is considered one of the worst in Twins history. Steer has become an everyday utility player for the Reds, hitting .286/.365/.482 (.861) and a wRC+ of 124. Steer also sports an fWAR of 0.8 which is higher than every Twins position player not named Ryan Jeffers (1.0 fWAR), Michael A. Taylor (1.0 fWAR), Byron Buxton (0.9 fWAR), Willi Castro (0.8 fWAR), or Alex Kirilloff (0.8 fWAR). As he did in the Twins system last year, Encarnacion-Strand has skyrocketed through the Cincinnati Reds minor league system and is hitting .353/.413/.706 (1.11) with a wRC+ of 172 with the Triple-A Louisville Bats, and Hajjar has since been traded to the Cleveland Guardians as part of the Will Benson trade between the Reds and Guardians on March 25. Meanwhile, Mahle started nine games and pitched 42.0 innings before the Twins announced that Mahle would need to undergo Tommy John surgery on May 11. The Twins lost this trade. There is no more room for interpretation. Steer has been incredible, Encarnacion-Strand looks like he will be incredible, and Twins fans will inevitably be upset when Hajjar throws seven scoreless innings against the Twins while pitching for the Guardians in 2026. Although the Twins gave away three talented prospects that fans will have to watch perform well for other teams for what could be the next decade, those who follow the Twins shouldn't be too upset with the organization as the process the front office took in trading for Mahle was sound and the right move at the time, as the Twins were in first place and contending for a division title, it just happened not to work out. That said, the Twins should not be done with Mahle just yet. Instead, they should extend him to a multiyear contract. It may seem like I am falling victim to the sunk-cost fallacy, but Mahle is an above-average pitcher that the Twins should look to sign while his perceived value is relatively low. Through nine games with the Twins, Mahle has achieved a 3.64 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 4.73 FIP while giving up nine walks, 35 hits, and 40 strikeouts. When looking at Mahle's performance as a Twin, the number that catches one's eye is his elite WHIP of just 1.05. Mahle is elite when it comes to limiting baserunners, which is a skill that every franchise values highly. Mahle throws an above-average slider and splitter to confuse both left and right-handed batters, but what makes Mahle truly special is his elite fastball. Mahle, who stands at six-foot-three, pointedly bends his knee at the end of his wind-up, creating a rising effect on his fastball, similar to fellow Twins pitcher Joe Ryan and Cleveland Guardians pitcher Triston McKenzie. Mahle's ability to generate what is essentially a "rising fastball," which is an optical illusion in itself, is evidenced by Mahle's 80th-percentile extension rate and 76th-percentile Fastball Spin rate. Mahle's elite fastball, which sits around 93-94 MPH, led to him generating a K% of 27.5% and a BB% of just 4.9%, both elite numbers on each end of the spectrum. Mahle, like any pitcher, is not perfect. Mahle is a fly-ball pitcher, and although this archetype tends to work well while pitching most of one’s games at Target Field, it does mean that Mahle is prone to giving up home runs, especially on the road, which was evidenced during his start against the Yankees on April 15, when he gave up two home runs through only 4.1 innings pitched. Although Mahle occasionally struggles with home runs, he is an above-average pitcher who, if given more opportunities while healthy, would greatly benefit from throwing most of his starts at Target Field, where Ballpark Pal currently ranks as the tenth hardest ballpark to hit home runs. What would Mahle's contract extension look like? Although signing a pitcher who recently underwent Tommy John surgery feels like something that would be complicated to work through, this iteration of the Twins front office has done this more than once. In December 2017, the Twins signed Michael Pineda, who had undergone Tommy John surgery in July of that year, to a two-year, $10 million contract that paid him $2 million while he recovered during the 2018 season and eight million dollars during what was expected to be Pineda's first full year back from surgery. Also, the Twins recently signed Chris Paddack, who underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2022, to a three-year, $12 million contract on January 14, 2023. Using Pineda and Paddack's contract as reference points, it would be fair to assume that Mahle's hypothetical contract would be in a similar ballpark. Mahle is a better pitcher than Pineda and Paddack were when they signed their respective contracts, so it is fair to assume that Mahle would require more of an investment if the Twins wanted to extend him. To predict, Mahle would likely request a contract somewhere in the two-year $20 million range that would pay him five million dollars to recover with the Twins in 2024 and then $15 million to pitch in what would hopefully be his first completely healthy season since his surgery in 2025. Evidently, the Twins find value in signing or extending high-variance starting pitchers whose value is low since they recently underwent Tommy John surgery. Many fans will label this as the Twins shopping in the "bargain section" for pitchers, but, on the flip side, this process could be seen as a savvy process in accruing low-cost pitching talent, especially when it comes to an above-average pitcher like Mahle. Should the Twins extend Mahle? What do you think Mahle's contract would look like?
  19. Or, when the ecstasy of the deal wears off, what are you left with? Image courtesy of Brent Skeen-USA TODAY Sports Typically, analyzing deals less than a year after they occur is bad process. Players often make massive, gigantic strides in their game, and performance fluctuates—lagging before suddenly clicking, perhaps. But the outcomes of two of the trades are already mostly apparent, allowing us to play anthropologist and unearth what happened on August 2nd, 2022. But first: the historical context. It’s always easy to admonish trades long after the fact, but with some exceptions (hello, Pirates and Chris Archer), every trade makes sense at the time. Front office executives aren’t fools; they may be desperate to varying degrees, but the heat of the moment will always justify whatever eventual poor trade they make. And so we must travel back in time a little to where the Twins were at the trade deadline. Sitting six games above .500—comfortable, perhaps not cozy—Minnesota could easily command the AL Central crown over yet another tepid division. Things weren’t perfect, but they were good, and sometimes that’s all one can get in baseball. Still, the duel swear words “Dylan Bundy” and “Chris Archer” (there he is again!) made up 40% of the starting rotation, and Emilio Pagán was Emilio Pagán-ing, leaving the Twins hungry for upgrades to the pitching staff. Traded by the Baltimore Orioles with cash to the Minnesota Twins for Juan Nunez (minors), Cade Povich (minors), Juan Rojas (minors), and Yennier Cano. The Jorge López deal was the first to break that day. I was still sleeping when news hit Twitter—I’m on the West Coast; not lazy, mind you—so waking up to a sudden All-Star influx of closing ability was more pungent and invigorating than the first cup of coffee. The deal hurt, given that Cade Povich was a tremendous talent laying waste to minor-league hitters, but that’s the price the devil extracts when you don’t plan your bullpen well. And López would be worth it, right? This was a blatant breaking of a very serious rule the A’s have known about for decades: closers are built, not bought. High-octane relievers are alluring, but like a sports car purchased to flaunt opulence, they can break easily. López’s ERA has jumped almost two runs since his half-season of elite play in Baltimore, while Yennier Cano currently leads MLB in reliever fWAR. That’s the kind of swindle that appears in documentaries with Very Smart people wondering how the hell a team could get duped that badly. For your health, don’t look up Povich’s peripherals at AA this year. Traded by the Cincinnati Reds to the Minnesota Twins for Christian Encarnacion-Strand (minors), Steve Hajjar (minors), and Spencer Steer. The monkey’s paw curled once more before the day ended, and suddenly the common troubles of a talented and underperforming starter became Minnesota’s problem to figure out. They didn’t. Or, rather, they never got the chance to: Tyler Mahle’s Twins career lasted 42 innings (less than Gabriel Moya’s), and he will likely spend 2024 on a different team—one fine with eating a few months of Tommy John recovery in the hopes that he can be an effective pitcher in the nebulous sometime future. As tragic as this deal was as well, it had to be done, sort of. The value of a competent starter has never been higher than now; the vast dearth of arms capable of eating five, six innings with any consistency has created a market of desperation where teams are taking risks on players in the hopes that the low odds of them breaking out turn favorable. They have to; there’s no other choice. It’s why Minnesota stirred up all the hoopla over acquiring Chris Paddack; it’s why Toronto sends Yusei Kikuchi out to the mound every handful of days. The Twins were burned—obviously—but so were the Yankees when they signed Carlos Rodón and traded for Frankie Montas. And I think if you ask any team with a similar situation, they would say that they remain fine with the chance they took. Ironically, the depth Minnesota sought to avoid and protect now appears to be the answer in front of their face: Bailey Ober and Louie Varland are solid rotation fixtures. So let this be the lesson: risks are good and necessary, but the Twins may best avoid future disasters if they choose to trust themselves. They’ve proven excellent off-season identifiers of pitching talent, but their nervous in-season trade decisions have almost always bitten themselves, save for one awesome Sergio Romo addition. Hopefully, they realize this before it’s too late this season. View full article
  20. On every team, some players enter the season with high expectations, but baseball can be a cruel game. Here are some of the players that have failed to meet their lofty preseason projections. Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports In the preseason, fans can use multiple projection systems to analyze any team and its outlook for the upcoming campaign. The Twins used the offseason to build depth at multiple positions, which has helped the team stay near the top of the AL Central. Each player below was expected to fill a specific role for the 2023 squad, and they have yet to meet expectations. Here are five players whose performances have been disappointments so far in 2023. 5. Tyler Mahle Injuries are tough to predict, but Mahle has dealt with shoulder and elbow problems over the last two seasons. ZiPS projected Mahle to finish second on the team in WAR for pitchers, but he was limited to five starts with a 3.16 ERA. He had Tommy John surgery in May and will miss the remainder of the 2023 season. He will be a free agent at season's end, but the Twins can try and sign him to a contract that buys out some of his free agent seasons. Mahle ranks at this spot on the list because some injury concerns surrounded him entering the season. 4. Nick Gordon Gordon ended the 2023 season on a high note, so there was some hope that the former first-round pick was ready to take the next step. He was given a more prominent role to begin the 2023 season because of injuries to other left-handed hitters, but he failed to reproduce his numbers from last season. In his first 34 games, he hit .176/.185/.319 (.503) with eight extra-base hits and a 37 OPS+. ZiPS projected him to have a .309 wOBA, but he has been limited to a .214 wOBA. Gordon might have started to find his swing, but then he fouled a ball off his leg and broke his shin. The team moved him to the 60-day IL earlier this week, and now he will have to wait until the season's second half to get back on track. 3. Christian Vazquez The Twins signed Vazquez to a three-year, $30 million deal this winter to take over as the team's primary catcher. However, his first year in Minnesota could have started better. He has his lowest OPS+ since 2018 and is on pace for career lows in multiple other categories. ZiPS projected him to hit .250/.303/.351 (.654) with 16 extra-base hits. He has yet to hit his first home run for the season, and there have been little signs of offensive improvements. To be fair, he wasn't signed to be an offensive force, but Minnesota had to be expecting to get a better performance from him. There have been some positive impacts on the pitching staff, and the Twins hope he can start to provide more offensive value. 2. Jose Miranda Entering the season, ZiPS projected Jose Miranda to finish fourth on the team in WAR behind Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, and Jorge Polanco. The Twins handed the starting third base job to Miranda after a tremendous rookie campaign where he had a 114 OPS+ with 25 doubles and 15 home runs. Miranda has struggled this season while hitting .220/.275/.318 (.593) with seven extra-base hits in 35 games. Minnesota demoted him to Triple-A in the middle of May, and he has a .383 OPS in his first 14 games at that level. Miranda can still be a middle-of-the-order bat for the next decade, but no one expected this kind of start to the 2023 campaign. 1. Carlos Correa The Twins invested $200 million in Carlos Correa this winter to be a franchise-altering player. Two months into his new deal, it's hard to imagine things going much worse. He is off to a slow start for the second straight season, hitting .210/.304/.381 (.686) with 18 extra-base hits in his first 47 games. He is playing through a recently diagnosed plantar fasciitis injury, but that hasn't impacted him for the entire season. ZiPS projected him to lead the team in WAR and post a .355 wOBA. Baseball-Reference ranks him 19th on the team in WAR, behind players like Caleb Thielbar and Tyler Mahle. Correa's offensive performance improved throughout the 2022 season, so the Twins have to hope the veteran will start to figure it out at the plate. Do you agree with the rankings? Who else would you add to the list? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article
  21. Typically, analyzing deals less than a year after they occur is bad process. Players often make massive, gigantic strides in their game, and performance fluctuates—lagging before suddenly clicking, perhaps. But the outcomes of two of the trades are already mostly apparent, allowing us to play anthropologist and unearth what happened on August 2nd, 2022. But first: the historical context. It’s always easy to admonish trades long after the fact, but with some exceptions (hello, Pirates and Chris Archer), every trade makes sense at the time. Front office executives aren’t fools; they may be desperate to varying degrees, but the heat of the moment will always justify whatever eventual poor trade they make. And so we must travel back in time a little to where the Twins were at the trade deadline. Sitting six games above .500—comfortable, perhaps not cozy—Minnesota could easily command the AL Central crown over yet another tepid division. Things weren’t perfect, but they were good, and sometimes that’s all one can get in baseball. Still, the duel swear words “Dylan Bundy” and “Chris Archer” (there he is again!) made up 40% of the starting rotation, and Emilio Pagán was Emilio Pagán-ing, leaving the Twins hungry for upgrades to the pitching staff. Traded by the Baltimore Orioles with cash to the Minnesota Twins for Juan Nunez (minors), Cade Povich (minors), Juan Rojas (minors), and Yennier Cano. The Jorge López deal was the first to break that day. I was still sleeping when news hit Twitter—I’m on the West Coast; not lazy, mind you—so waking up to a sudden All-Star influx of closing ability was more pungent and invigorating than the first cup of coffee. The deal hurt, given that Cade Povich was a tremendous talent laying waste to minor-league hitters, but that’s the price the devil extracts when you don’t plan your bullpen well. And López would be worth it, right? This was a blatant breaking of a very serious rule the A’s have known about for decades: closers are built, not bought. High-octane relievers are alluring, but like a sports car purchased to flaunt opulence, they can break easily. López’s ERA has jumped almost two runs since his half-season of elite play in Baltimore, while Yennier Cano currently leads MLB in reliever fWAR. That’s the kind of swindle that appears in documentaries with Very Smart people wondering how the hell a team could get duped that badly. For your health, don’t look up Povich’s peripherals at AA this year. Traded by the Cincinnati Reds to the Minnesota Twins for Christian Encarnacion-Strand (minors), Steve Hajjar (minors), and Spencer Steer. The monkey’s paw curled once more before the day ended, and suddenly the common troubles of a talented and underperforming starter became Minnesota’s problem to figure out. They didn’t. Or, rather, they never got the chance to: Tyler Mahle’s Twins career lasted 42 innings (less than Gabriel Moya’s), and he will likely spend 2024 on a different team—one fine with eating a few months of Tommy John recovery in the hopes that he can be an effective pitcher in the nebulous sometime future. As tragic as this deal was as well, it had to be done, sort of. The value of a competent starter has never been higher than now; the vast dearth of arms capable of eating five, six innings with any consistency has created a market of desperation where teams are taking risks on players in the hopes that the low odds of them breaking out turn favorable. They have to; there’s no other choice. It’s why Minnesota stirred up all the hoopla over acquiring Chris Paddack; it’s why Toronto sends Yusei Kikuchi out to the mound every handful of days. The Twins were burned—obviously—but so were the Yankees when they signed Carlos Rodón and traded for Frankie Montas. And I think if you ask any team with a similar situation, they would say that they remain fine with the chance they took. Ironically, the depth Minnesota sought to avoid and protect now appears to be the answer in front of their face: Bailey Ober and Louie Varland are solid rotation fixtures. So let this be the lesson: risks are good and necessary, but the Twins may best avoid future disasters if they choose to trust themselves. They’ve proven excellent off-season identifiers of pitching talent, but their nervous in-season trade decisions have almost always bitten themselves, save for one awesome Sergio Romo addition. Hopefully, they realize this before it’s too late this season.
  22. In the preseason, fans can use multiple projection systems to analyze any team and its outlook for the upcoming campaign. The Twins used the offseason to build depth at multiple positions, which has helped the team stay near the top of the AL Central. Each player below was expected to fill a specific role for the 2023 squad, and they have yet to meet expectations. Here are five players whose performances have been disappointments so far in 2023. 5. Tyler Mahle Injuries are tough to predict, but Mahle has dealt with shoulder and elbow problems over the last two seasons. ZiPS projected Mahle to finish second on the team in WAR for pitchers, but he was limited to five starts with a 3.16 ERA. He had Tommy John surgery in May and will miss the remainder of the 2023 season. He will be a free agent at season's end, but the Twins can try and sign him to a contract that buys out some of his free agent seasons. Mahle ranks at this spot on the list because some injury concerns surrounded him entering the season. 4. Nick Gordon Gordon ended the 2023 season on a high note, so there was some hope that the former first-round pick was ready to take the next step. He was given a more prominent role to begin the 2023 season because of injuries to other left-handed hitters, but he failed to reproduce his numbers from last season. In his first 34 games, he hit .176/.185/.319 (.503) with eight extra-base hits and a 37 OPS+. ZiPS projected him to have a .309 wOBA, but he has been limited to a .214 wOBA. Gordon might have started to find his swing, but then he fouled a ball off his leg and broke his shin. The team moved him to the 60-day IL earlier this week, and now he will have to wait until the season's second half to get back on track. 3. Christian Vazquez The Twins signed Vazquez to a three-year, $30 million deal this winter to take over as the team's primary catcher. However, his first year in Minnesota could have started better. He has his lowest OPS+ since 2018 and is on pace for career lows in multiple other categories. ZiPS projected him to hit .250/.303/.351 (.654) with 16 extra-base hits. He has yet to hit his first home run for the season, and there have been little signs of offensive improvements. To be fair, he wasn't signed to be an offensive force, but Minnesota had to be expecting to get a better performance from him. There have been some positive impacts on the pitching staff, and the Twins hope he can start to provide more offensive value. 2. Jose Miranda Entering the season, ZiPS projected Jose Miranda to finish fourth on the team in WAR behind Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, and Jorge Polanco. The Twins handed the starting third base job to Miranda after a tremendous rookie campaign where he had a 114 OPS+ with 25 doubles and 15 home runs. Miranda has struggled this season while hitting .220/.275/.318 (.593) with seven extra-base hits in 35 games. Minnesota demoted him to Triple-A in the middle of May, and he has a .383 OPS in his first 14 games at that level. Miranda can still be a middle-of-the-order bat for the next decade, but no one expected this kind of start to the 2023 campaign. 1. Carlos Correa The Twins invested $200 million in Carlos Correa this winter to be a franchise-altering player. Two months into his new deal, it's hard to imagine things going much worse. He is off to a slow start for the second straight season, hitting .210/.304/.381 (.686) with 18 extra-base hits in his first 47 games. He is playing through a recently diagnosed plantar fasciitis injury, but that hasn't impacted him for the entire season. ZiPS projected him to lead the team in WAR and post a .355 wOBA. Baseball-Reference ranks him 19th on the team in WAR, behind players like Caleb Thielbar and Tyler Mahle. Correa's offensive performance improved throughout the 2022 season, so the Twins have to hope the veteran will start to figure it out at the plate. Do you agree with the rankings? Who else would you add to the list? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
  23. At the 2022 trade deadline the Minnesota Twins traded for starting pitcher Tyler Mahle. While Mahle’s elbow injury threw water on the blockbuster deal, the stellar play from two of the prospects the Twins traded away will be what could haunt them for years to come. Image courtesy of Ray Acevedo-USA TODAY Sports While the Minnesota Twins paid a steep price when they traded for Tyler Mahle (three top-20 prospects), most considered the deal to be a good one as the Twins avoided trading away any of their top-five prospects in the deal. After all, there’s nothing more haunting for a fan base (or a front office) than trading away a future star and watching that player do damage for years on another team. Unfortunately for the Twins, not only did the Mahle Era in Minnesota go completely sideways, but it’s looking like two of the prospects that the Twins gave up in the trade could be guys who do damage on another team for years to come. Spencer Steer was the prized prospect that was traded away to the Cincinnati Reds in the Mahle deal. At the time of the trade, Steer was the sixth ranked prospect in Twins Daily’s prospect ranking as he was performing well at Triple-A at the time and was extremely close to the Majors. Steer got his feet wet in the big leagues late last season, but didn’t knock anyone’s socks off with a meager .632 OPS in 28 games to end the 2022 season. The 2023 season has been a completely different story for the right-hander. Through 50 games, Spencer Steer is slashing .288/.353/.485 with seven home runs and 26 RBI. Steer’s 23 extra base hits and .838 OPS would be first and second, respectively, on the Twins this season. Perhaps the most impressive part of Steer’s offensive numbers is that he had a slow start to the year. Through May 2, Steer had a .699 OPS. Since then, over his last 23 games, Steer has posted a .984 OPS with 14 extra base hits. While Steer’s defense certainly leaves more to be desired, his offensive arrow is pointing upward, and he is certainly someone that the Twins could be kicking themselves for trading away for a long time. The next highest-rated prospect that the Twins traded away for Mahle last July was corner infielder/designated hitter, Christian Encarnacion-Strand. At the time of the deal, Encarnacion-Strand was Twins Daily’s 16th ranked prospect. His bat was always a strength, but his limited defensive abilities hampered his ability to climb higher up the prospect ranks. While Encarnacion-Strand is still likely headed for a career at first base or designated hitter, his numbers at the plate in Triple-A this season have lessened the concerns about his defensive future and instead heightened the excitement about his future at the plate. In 31 games with the Louisville Bats, Encarnacion-Strand is slashing .341/.387/.710 with 13 home runs and 32 RBI. His 1.097 OPS leads all active minor leaguers and his call-up to the big leagues appears to be imminent. CES certainly needs to work on his eye at the plate, as his 39/9 K/BB ratio is less than ideal, but Encarnacion-Strand is mashing at the plate right now unlike any other player in the minors and, similar to Steer, is looking like a guy that could haunt the Minnesota Twins for years to come. How do you think that Steer and Encarnacion-Strand’s careers will play out in Cincinnati? Do you think these players will haunt the Twins? Leave a comment below and start the conversation! View full article
  24. The author would like to note that he conceived this piece prior to Minnesota’s comeback victory over the Astros on Monday. Image courtesy of Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports I was on Twins Daily the other day when the front page struck me with its topics. Around two video links titled "What's Wrong With the Twins" and "The Twins Are Unwatchable Right Now" were three articles: What's Wrong With Griffin Jax, It's Okay to be Disappointed by the Twins, and These 3 Minnesota Twins Prospects Are Off to Disappointing Starts in 2023. That's a lot of consternation! To be clear, these are all legitimate perspectives and relevant topics pertaining to real issues plaguing the franchise. Their timing is extreme, but their subject matter is not; a little healthy skepticism is needed in life, anyways. But—I don't know—does it all seem a little much? The Twins haven't overwhelmed us with legendary and inspiring baseball, but they're 28-26 after play on Monday and currently own one the best pitching staffs in MLB. Trust me; I've sat at Fangraphs longingly staring at the player pages for LaMonte Wade Jr. and Yennier Cano, wondering what cruel creator would allow such searing pain—not seeing excellent players play for my favorite team—to exist in the world, hoping that through sheer sadness, Brent Rooker would somehow apparate into the 4-hole and fix the lineup. And yet, the team is treading water and playing competitive baseball; only eight of their 54 games have resulted in a loss greater than three runs. They've been able to keep it close. Which only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades—I know. And yet the team has outscored their opponents by 44 runs, leading to a record of 32-22 if the Greek philosopher Pythagoras is to be trusted. Most of that success has stemmed from an excellent, genuinely elite starting rotation. Only the Rays—a team that cares not for titles like "starter" and "reliever"—have allowed a lower team batting average; only the Mariners have accrued more fWAR; no one has struck out batters at a higher rate. Minnesota lost Tyler Mahle to Tommy John surgery; Kenta Maeda has stalled on multiple speed bumps while trying to return from his operation, and the team may have actually improved. Their depth is that special. Both Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan have pitched like aces, while Pablo López has teased a potential for ace-ness; I can't remember the last time Minnesota had three legitimate top-tier starters on their team. These things should be celebrated; we should be shouting from the roof that their fifth starter is Louie Varland—a 25-year-old who throws 95, has 60 major-league innings under his belt, and still owns a better xFIP than Gerrit Cole. Bailey Ober ho-hums his way to a 2.68 ERA and one of the highest rWAR totals on the team, and it feels like no one even cares. Now, yes, the bats have been dreadfully inconsistent. I watch the same games as everyone else; I know what it feels like to watch inning after inning go by, all of them melting into an amorphous blob seemingly without life or movement as the team loses 2-4 to the Angels. It's tedium at its worst, considering watching baseball is supposed to be an activity of leisure. Yet it should perhaps be a sign of good things that the bats could be this awful, and the team can still win ball games. And it should improve. Carlos Correa will get better; Jose Miranda will get better; Christian Vázquez… well, he has his own problems, but no one can carry an ISO of .027 forever. This is all to say that it's getting better all the time. No one in the AL Central is even close to having a positive run differential, and that seems unlikely to change soon; those teams stink. It hasn't been aesthetically pleasant baseball at times, but it's still winning baseball, and they've often found themselves playing truly competitive ball against MLB bullies for the first time in a while. Maybe they'll break through and turn elite, and maybe they won't and stay an 85-win team for the rest of the season. All I know is that it'll probably be fine. View full article
  25. While the Minnesota Twins paid a steep price when they traded for Tyler Mahle (three top-20 prospects), most considered the deal to be a good one as the Twins avoided trading away any of their top-five prospects in the deal. After all, there’s nothing more haunting for a fan base (or a front office) than trading away a future star and watching that player do damage for years on another team. Unfortunately for the Twins, not only did the Mahle Era in Minnesota go completely sideways, but it’s looking like two of the prospects that the Twins gave up in the trade could be guys who do damage on another team for years to come. Spencer Steer was the prized prospect that was traded away to the Cincinnati Reds in the Mahle deal. At the time of the trade, Steer was the sixth ranked prospect in Twins Daily’s prospect ranking as he was performing well at Triple-A at the time and was extremely close to the Majors. Steer got his feet wet in the big leagues late last season, but didn’t knock anyone’s socks off with a meager .632 OPS in 28 games to end the 2022 season. The 2023 season has been a completely different story for the right-hander. Through 50 games, Spencer Steer is slashing .288/.353/.485 with seven home runs and 26 RBI. Steer’s 23 extra base hits and .838 OPS would be first and second, respectively, on the Twins this season. Perhaps the most impressive part of Steer’s offensive numbers is that he had a slow start to the year. Through May 2, Steer had a .699 OPS. Since then, over his last 23 games, Steer has posted a .984 OPS with 14 extra base hits. While Steer’s defense certainly leaves more to be desired, his offensive arrow is pointing upward, and he is certainly someone that the Twins could be kicking themselves for trading away for a long time. The next highest-rated prospect that the Twins traded away for Mahle last July was corner infielder/designated hitter, Christian Encarnacion-Strand. At the time of the deal, Encarnacion-Strand was Twins Daily’s 16th ranked prospect. His bat was always a strength, but his limited defensive abilities hampered his ability to climb higher up the prospect ranks. While Encarnacion-Strand is still likely headed for a career at first base or designated hitter, his numbers at the plate in Triple-A this season have lessened the concerns about his defensive future and instead heightened the excitement about his future at the plate. In 31 games with the Louisville Bats, Encarnacion-Strand is slashing .341/.387/.710 with 13 home runs and 32 RBI. His 1.097 OPS leads all active minor leaguers and his call-up to the big leagues appears to be imminent. CES certainly needs to work on his eye at the plate, as his 39/9 K/BB ratio is less than ideal, but Encarnacion-Strand is mashing at the plate right now unlike any other player in the minors and, similar to Steer, is looking like a guy that could haunt the Minnesota Twins for years to come. How do you think that Steer and Encarnacion-Strand’s careers will play out in Cincinnati? Do you think these players will haunt the Twins? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!
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