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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    It was an intelligently constructed roster overall, and addressed the biggest weaknesses from the 2022 Twins: depth and starting pitching. It wasn't near perfect: Gallo was a real miss (one great month doesn't make the next 4 worth it), they didn't shore up the bullpen early enough, and the Buxton DH experiment was problematic as the season went on. They also carried a 13th pitcher too often that didn't get used and limited their own options. But overall it was a good job of roster construction. They clearly prioritized depth and flexibility, and it is interesting that it was a cohesive team that seemed to like each other and the manager and didn't have any of those conflicts and blowups. YMMV on how much that matters, but it does seem to impact a team in baseball with the really long grind of the season. A couple of depth moves they made really worked out that seemed a bit questionable at the time: Solano & Castro. It wasn't clear they needed Solano and it did keep Julien from being on the roster from the jump, but Solano had a solid season and his presence meant that when the injuries were piling up (again) they had a quality veteran bat who could make consistent contact stepping in. Castro was a revelation; his positional flexibility was outstanding and while he's not a plus hitter, he's good enough (ended the season slightly above average) and his baserunning is a real plus. He also turned out to be average to above average defensively at pretty much every position he played. They're also pretty well positioned for 2024, which is a plus mark for this season's roster construction as well: even with the potential losses of several players through free agency, we're not looking at gaping holes anywhere, and sustainable success was also a stated goal of this front office.
  2. jmlease1
    Tough break for Kirilloff. Every time it looks like he's taking a step forward something else gets him. I was so happy that it looked like they had finally solved his wrist issue, so it's a bummer to have a shoulder problem take him down again. I still believe in his bat and was really hoping to see him as the starting 1B from Day 1 next year. The good thing for the Twins is they should have options. Seems increasingly likely that Polanco is back next year and Julien gets the shift over to 1B (give Julien a whole offseason to prepare for 1B duty and I expect he'll do fine). Miranda could be an option if he's healthy and his RH bat could protect Julien from too many tough matchups against LHP. Depth was hugely important to the 2023 Twins and I think they will be looking to match that again next season. It will be interesting to see how much of that comes from within or if they look for reinforcements in free agency. (I have zero fear that Gallo will be back.)
  3. jmlease1
    Kirk Gibson would like a word. :P An argument can be made the MAT and Byron Buxton are pretty much equal, but I don't think it's a very good one, and certainly not a good enough one to unequivocally call the move "stupidity". the only way to make them equal as hitters is to ignore everything except this season. Where during the grind of a long season and battling injuries, Byron Buxton had one of his worst seasons as a pro...but notably was excellent out the gate before trying to grind through it eventually made him unplayable for full games. This season was Michael A. Taylor's 2nd best in his whole career as a hitter, and it ended up being roughly comparable to one of Buxton's worst. Buxton has a career OPS+ of 106, MAT is at 83. Prior to this season Buxton had 4 straight seasons with an OPS+ of 115 or better. MAT has never had an OPS+ over 105. he's only been over 100 (league average) once. Maybe on Oct 11th MAT was a better hitter than Byron Buxton because he'd been facing live, opposing MLB pitching for the past several weeks, but during the playoffs he was 2-13 with 5 Ks and no BBs, no XBHs, and hit into a DP. He struggled at the plate. based on pure talent level and sheer ability to hit a baseball...not a bad case to give Buxton a shot, and it lit up the stadium. It didn't work out, but there's little evidence MAT would have done better.
  4. jmlease1
    It was a fun team to watch this season. Never felt like they didn't have a chance going into any game the whole year, which is definitely a new feeling. If there's disappointment, it's because they increased expectations through their own performance. It's because after the Pablo Lopez Game you could see the path forward and how they could win the series...and then it went south. If you don't care, you can't be disappointed, and this team made people care. Lot of new and fun players on this team. lot of guys who absolutely will be back next year as key contributors: Lopez, Julien, Lewis, Wallner, Castro should all be around. Ober, Varland, Jax, and Jeffers all stepped up. there's a lot of upside for this team, and potential to improve. Sometimes you get a good team that's not very fun (the Jimmy Butler T-Wolves come to mind), but this was a group that was super easy to root for. Farmer, Polanco, Kepler with a resurgent season, bulldog Sonny Gray, and electric super lightning Duran! Lot of good dudes that really seemed to enjoy playing together. Fun to imagine what happens if better health reigns for Correa and Buxton (and Miranda, and Kirilloff, and Alcala...)
  5. jmlease1
    I am definitely on board with Pablo Lopez leading this rotation. He had an excellent year, healthy and consistent. He's got the arsenal to shut down any lineup, and showed he can be a big-game pitcher. He's shown he has the drive to improve and he's super-smart about his craft. And from everything we've heard, he sounds like a fantastic teammate too. Taking a shot at Baldelli related to Pablo Lopez is pretty wild: he just had his best season as a pro under Rocco. They worked with him on several things and made changes with him on his pitches and he finished the season strong and healthy (not hearing anyone knock him for a weak shoulder now are you?). He didn't have the same success with the breaking ball before he came here. So why exactly should anyone be worrying about the manager screwing him up? He didn't come here and do the same thing or worse: he actually got better.
  6. jmlease1
    So any player with a platoon split shouldn't be on this team? That's basically what you're saying here. I'm baffled about the outrage for the supposed "insult" pinch hitting Byron Buxton for MAT somehow is. Buxton is a better hitter. MAT was a fine player for us this season and stepped up when we needed him to, but he's not a great hitter: he's only been above league average one season in his career, and that was 6 years ago. Even hurt, Buxton has produced more value at the plate this season. he's an elite talent than can change a game. MAT was 2-13 with 5 Ks and no xbhs in the playoffs, it's not like we pinch-hit for a guy who was crushing it. And did you hear the crowd when Buxton came to the plate? It didn't work out, but it definitely put a charge into the whole place.
  7. jmlease1
    Cubs fans might disagree with you. Dusty does great when he has great players, like most managers. (check out the Houston side of the world some time, they're pretty convinced that Dusty insisting on playing Maldonaldo every game in the playoffs is going to kill them) Dusty Baker didn't hit any of the HRs that sank the Twins, and I really can't think of a significant managerial move that he made in this series, and certainly not one that was decisive.
  8. jmlease1
    well, there's always next year! A disappointing result, mostly because you could see the path to victory after game 2. So it's a bummer to have it go the other way, especially having the offense going silent. But I still like this team a lot and they were very fun to watch this year. Paddack did great coming in, and it certainly makes me feel a little more confident about him in the rotation for next season. You can certainly see the talent, and after years of needing to bring in 2-4 starters in the offseason just to fill up the rotation it's nice to be in a position where we could sign no one and still have a viable rotation with top-end talent on Opening Day. Julien really proved himself. No question that he's a big-league hitter, and if he gets a little more respect for his strike zone judgment next season he could actually be even better. It's also impressive that he shows good power going the opposite way. He's exciting. Royce proved himself as a player as well...he just needs to figure out how to stay on the field consistently. The talent is awesome, but one of the best abilities is availability. This team steps up another level if Lewis and Buxton are healthy and playing 130-140 games in a season. I can't say I mind going with a bullpen game last night considering the stakes and the situation. You've got all these pitchers, might as well use them. They pitched well enough to win. Kepler taking that last pitch...tough one. On the one hand it sure looked like a ball, and we certainly weren't happy about the Twins expanding the zone and getting themselves out the previous night. On the other, it really stinks to strike out looking like that. (I will admit to being surprised that the broadcast showed the earlier "strike three" that was clearly off the plate and having the booth comment on it; did they do the same on the last pitch....or did MLB orders come down for them to shut up about it?)
  9. jmlease1
    It was a disappointing loss to be sure. Pitching wasn't there, defense wasn't there, and offense wasn't there. It's tough when nothing's really working, and the Astros had it going. Alvarez is absolutely a machine. Fortunately, the Twins still have another bite at it. It would be great to send this back to Houston. Twins did a good job working walks, but they need to pair it up with some hits. Hopefully some guys will be able to re-set themselves, not expand the zone and find contact again. This team still has a lot of power up and down the lineup and that can turn things around in a hurry. Glad to hear the fans in the stands didn't quit on the team yesterday and kept trying to cheer them on, even during a rough game. Hope everyone comes out again tonight ready to yell!
  10. jmlease1
    I think it's more likely that with 2 outs Rocco wasn't looking to weaken his defense yet to try and exploit the platoon advantage and didn't want to limit his options too much for later in the game. When Julien pinch hit for him in the 7th (which worked out nicely) it was also a reasonable time to slide Castro down to 3B and bring in Stevenson to handle left with the good lead intact. The Twins definitely are looking to exploit the platoon advantage but I think their substitution patterns are more sophisticated than just swapping guys out for that aspect. I do think they're trying to be situational to get that crooked number on the board, pressure the other team's bullpen alignment, and handle things in ways to keep their defense intact while riding a lead.
  11. jmlease1
    I think the starter order is lining up pretty well for the twins. Ober struggled a bit in game 1 and Maeda didn't lock it down behind him, but with Lopez crushing it the twins are now looking at Gray in game 3 at home, Ryan in Game 4 at home, and Lopez ready to go back to Houston on regular rest if needed. But that scenario also means that if Gray and Ryan kick butt (along with the offense providing the juice), we could have Lopez lined up to go game 1 in the ALCS too, which would certainly be ideal. Didn't quite work out with Ober in game 1, but we're still in a good place, and it was a more than reasonable decision. And no shame in getting beat by Alvarez; that dude is a beast. Might be time to just say "we ain't pitching to you" with him, even with Lopez doing great in the matchup. the bottom half of the Astros lineup just isn't as scary as it used to be, and they really need Alvarez, Altuve, Bregman, and Tucker to carry them
  12. jmlease1
    I'm sure you're right, but Wainwright did nothing for me either. Nerves/newness certainly didn't help him, nor being in a crowded booth with a guy like AJ who loves to talk. But he still wasn't very good. None of them seemed to pay attention to obvious strategy considerations and had seemingly no idea how the Twins would likely approach their substituting (as in, it's going to be different based on the game state, not just the platoon advantage, which is why Farmer was left in for another AB in the 5th; no need to weaken the defense with 2 outs and a 5-0 lead. But it's like no one in the booth had any idea, they just assumed the Twins would immediately flip the hitters once valdez was out of the game) A-rod is bad in the studio. He just is. Unoriginal and talks a lot without saying much. Jeter seemed bored. Ortiz didn't seem comfortable on that set.
  13. jmlease1
    Ooof. rough start for the hitters! Carr isn't a guy I know much about, but nice to see him have a good outing. Never know what can launch a player to the next level, but we've seen players take this opportunity in the AFL to show they can contribute. Maybe this helps Carr advance up a little bit.
  14. jmlease1
    Excellent win. Really good job coming back from a tough loss in Game 1 to show that they belonged in this series. Lopez was absolutely fantastic. He did a great job keeping Houston off-balance all night. Very good plan of attack against the Astros and Lopez executed it beautifully. This is the kind of start we acquired him to do for us, and it was wonderful to see. Same thing goes for Correa: he's been a big game player in his career, an excellent playoff competitor and he led the way again. We needed his hitting out there and he absolutely delivered. This is the kind of game we signed him for and he too delivered. Alvarez is a monster. Ooof. Lopez may have shut him down, but he takes any opportunity. Good thing the game was 6-0 before he struck. Despised the announcing team on FS1 last night. Thought they added nothing to the broadcast at all (Verducci wasn't bad with the dugout interviews, I guess) and missed the significance of various strategy points, probably because they spent more time talking about each other than the actual game. AJ's usually better than this, but it was a poor team. I guess it was nice to hear Smoltz wax poetic about how great Lopez was, but he spent more time talking about Lopez's interview after coming out than talking about how he actually pitched and attacked the Houston lineup. (the FS1 studio crew stinks too: Vasgerian isn't horrid, but A-Rod, Big Papi, and Jeter are a bad group. A-Rod acts like a try-hard kid desperately wanting everyone to like him, Ortiz only vaguely seems interested in what actually happened in the game, and Jeter seemed to mostly be there to say he had Lopez in Miami so he knew how great he was. Blegh) Great win. Looking forward to Gray kicking butt on Tuesday!
  15. jmlease1
    excellent win by the Twins. It's great to win a series, and have the pitching to get it done. Correa had a tough season (for him) at the plate, but he's been good in the field all year, and he really mattered in this series. Really smart play backing up Polanco in Game 1. Spotting the pickoff opportunity (and executing it) in Game 2. Turning DPs. And he's getting hits. This is exactly what we signed him for. Much as I want him to get 3 months off to heal from the plantar fasciitis...I'm move than ok with him getting 2 months off in exchange for a long run in the playoff, lol. Duran is just filthy, BTW.
  16. jmlease1
    There's no question Royce Lewis will be a fan-favorite if he can stay healthy. He plays with such joy and enthusiasm that you can't help but smile. I just hope he can stay healthy and have the kind of career to match his talent. (sadly, there are a lot of fans who will turn on him if he can't stay healthy as if injuries are a personal moral failing on his part) This is why he was drafted number 1. Looking forward to seeing much much more of Royce!
  17. jmlease1
    I'm surprised people are so ready to toss Polanco over the side. Once he got back into the lineup, he's been a key contributor for the Twins from August on, and an important part of their improved offense and success in locking down the division. He's also been a leader and team player and his switch-hitting makes the lineup more dangerous. Yes, Willi Castro is a better 3B defensively and so is Farmer, but Polanco is a far better hitter than either. Castro is a weapon to have off the bench and his versatility allows him to be deployed anywhere, including the OF, reducing the number of changes that need to be made if you bring him in. Doesn't work as well with Polanco. If Toronto wants to try to take advantage of Polanco's occasionally wobbly defense at 3B by slapping the ball into the ground, I'm all for it. This isn't the NBA or NFL when you can design your offense to target another team's worst defender (which still might be Julien, BTW) and exploit them. Or does anyone really think Toronto is going to light us up by bunting at Polanco all day? It was a great win, and it's so nice to finally be done with the losing streak. Here's hoping Sonny Gray makes Toronto hitters look silly today!
  18. jmlease1
    Excellent win. I was nervous as hell, but every time the Jays tried to get the game, someone stepped up from the Twins and shut it back down. That's really good to see, and hopefully gives the team confidence going into game two. Royce Lewis...what else is there to say? No moment is too big for him. Just stay healthy young man, because your star burns bright. Pablo Lopez sure looked like a Game One starter today. Very nice work from him, and then the bullpen slammed the door. Twins starting pitching looks like a playoff rotation to believe in. I'm not worried about Polanco. No, he didn't have a strong game at 3B, but he's a heck of a player and he will be fine. I see a big impact for him coming. That play by Correa to get Bichette was brilliant. Not a lot of players can make that play: first getting to that ball behind Polanco when you're so far to 2B, then fielding it cleanly, then making the smart and strong throw to home...that's wonderful SS play. I love watching him play defense out there.
  19. jmlease1
    The voting showed a fair result, almost a coin flip between Mr. Grand Slam and the Canadian God of Walks. Both had excellent seasons, leaving us with really only one further question: how much fun is it going to be to have them both with the Twins from Day One next season?!? Tough beat for Cement Bones Wallner, who walks away with this easily in most other years...but I think he'll be fine
  20. jmlease1
    More Colorado nonsense in the thin air. Such a weird place to play, got to be hard for pitchers to adjust, especially relievers who get little time to settle in. But Paddack (who has at least pitched there before) looked good and it seems clear he can be a useful pitcher in the playoffs and is setting himself up for a rotation spot next year. Great to see him bounce back from the second major elbow surgery and look healthy and strong. This front office has a mixed record on trades, but the end result on the Paddack deal is looking promising. I think if the Twins played their games in CO they'd be clearing 300 HRs on the regular. Kepler's dinger isn't out anywhere else. But props to the lineup for taking good ABs, pounding the ball and putting the game out of reach early.
  21. jmlease1
    Colorado definitely plays against Ryan's style and way of pitching. It's just reality. Did he have a great game? No, but it's also the first time he's pitched there and if you ask literally anyone in MLB they'll tell you it's a different deal. Ryan's biggest issue is always the long ball and playing in Colorado magnifies it. Good work by the bullpen to clean it up and finish it off.
  22. jmlease1
    I would much rather have Duran pitching to the other team's best hitters late in the game than saving him for an opportunity that might never come if you let a lesser reliever try to handle the heart of the other team's order in the 7th or 8th inning. I want my best reliever pitching in a close game. Having your best reliever only pitch the 9th in a save situation is wasting their talent. It's been interesting to see Rooker playing for the sorry, no-account A's (they are a really bad team). He had a really hot start to the season, tailed off drastically, and now is finishing the season on fire again. He's a poor defender, and I still can't figure out if he's a good stats on a bad team guy. Part of me is hoping that when he drove in 2 off Thielbar Solano muttered to him "well, you really knocked the crap out of that one..." :P Nice to keep winning. not worried about Lopez.
  23. jmlease1
    Fun game last night. Twins just keep working the walks, and correctly assuming that the next guy will take care of business. Morneau making the call on Wallner's HR was pretty fantastic. My goodness he pounded that one; I know they reported it at 463 ft, but it seemed even longer. Just an absolute bomb. Nice to see Paddack's stuff playing up. He looked great in the first inning he threw. Not so great in the second one, but it's good to have him back regardless. Should he be in the bullpen for the post-season? Maybe? Oakland is a pretty bad team, though. Yikes.
  24. jmlease1
    They are 100% going to make Sonny Gray the QO, and will be thrilled if he takes it. (spoiler alert: he's not going to take it) I'm also baffled by the presumption that Gray wants to leave. If it's because he's complained about being pulled from a game and/or said he wants to pitch deeper into games, I'll wager you all the money in my pockets against all the money in yours that if he goes somewhere else he'll say something very very similar to what he's been saying the past 2 seasons with the Twins. Sonny Gray basically never wants to come out, will almost always think he can go one more inning, get one more hitter, whatever. (and I like that about him! it's not a knock) He's also never been, basically his whole career, a guy who goes 7+ innings all the time. He hasn't pitched 200 innings in a season since he was 25. he's got some tough numbers that 3rd time through the order. He has had one of his best seasons as a professional this year, and set himself up for a very nice free agent contract. If he doesn't come back for the Twins it's going to be because he's getting a deal for more years and/or more money than the Twins are willing to go on him, not because he doesn't "like it" here. I expect Gray to get at least one 4-year contract offer for an AAV of $20M per season. Twins would bring him back on a 1 year deal, a 2 year deal, and maybe even a 3 (though I'm sure they'll start to get itchy about paying a pitcher $20M in year 3 at 36...), but they seem very unlikely to go 4 or 5. And someone who needs pitching will probably throw a 4+ year deal at him. Maybe he wouldn't be interested in going back to NYC (though being a Met is different than being with the Yankees), but they're not the only team that could toss that kind of money at Gray.
  25. jmlease1
    Really good year for Twins starting pitching and a fantastic change from previous years where we were throwing out a lot of guys to cover innings that were really contingent on them doing things they hadn't done before to be successful. Unsurprisingly, a lot of times they weren't. Health-wise the starters have been pretty good, with the exception of losing Mahle early. Ryan and Maeda missed some time, Ober was shut down to save his arm, but there's generally been good health and that's really great. Only 22 starts this season were made by pitchers not named Gray, Lopez, Ryan, Maeda, and Ober...and 10 of those 22 were given to Louis Varland, a quality prospect, and 5 went to Mahle who pitched as hoped before his elbow exploded. they have 5 starters this season who have at least 20 starts and all of them have an ERA+ of 100 or more. Compare that to last season when the Twins gave 65 starts to the law firm of Bundy, Archer, and Winder and none of them had an ERA+ over 90. They gave 45 starts to pitchers outside of their top 5 starters. It really matters when you don't give innings to poor pitchers. Starting depth doesn't guarantee wins in the playoffs, but at the same time we're also not hoping Randy Dobnak can start game one of playoff series any longer either. We can move arms like Varland and possibly Maeda into the bullpen to give us more strength there and Varland's late season move has paid dividends: in 10 1/3 IP as a reliever he's got 14 Ks, the WHIP is great, and he's been efficient, averaging less than 15 pitches per innings. Twins will need some health from the lineup to win in the playoffs, but starting pitching should give anyone hope, and the depth reinforcing the bullpen absolutely makes a difference.
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