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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I'm all in on Joe Ryan, who pounds the zone and piles up the outs. Excellent performance tonight, 7 nifty innings to put the Evil Empire to sleep. Gray, Lopez, and Ryan sure gives me a lot of confidence at the top of the rotation. I'm not surprised to see Polanco be such a catalyst for the offense, but it's very welcome. Nice to see Larnach making the necessary adjustments to never seeing a fastball. Be great to see him get on a run slamming slop around and see whether he starts seeing more fastballs.
  2. jmlease1
    Polanco is one of the top 3 position players on this team until someone knocks him off the perch, so it's fantastic to have him back and looking healthy. Even in a bit of an off year last season where he tried to fight through injury (and offense was down all across the league anyways) he was still a dang good player and one of the best offensive players in the league at 2B. I'm thrilled to have him back in the lineup and his switch-hitting is important. It's a little unfortunate that several of our best prospects all play his position, but they're going to have to take his spot not get it on scholarship.
  3. jmlease1
    11th best record in all of baseball. They're not as good as they were last season, but they're not a bad team. (as so far they're only 2-3 vs the Twins; last year they went 5-2 vs us. we're one of the reasons they don't look as good)
  4. jmlease1
    Very good team game last night. Gray was very tough and bullied the Evil Empire for 7 innings, but also had some nice defense behind him. And I'll probably always be happy with 10 hits and 6 BBs from the offense. Sure helps to have Polanco back in there. Neither Jax or Moran were sharp last night, but both were able to limit the damage. Would have been nice for them to be a little cleaner, but it's not always going to go that way. Moran might need a re-set in AAA, but it's also still pretty early. Good to see two LH OFs who haven't been great lately come through in Larnach (1 hit, 2 walks) and Kepler (3 hits).
  5. jmlease1
    Very impressive start to the season for Noah Miller. Sure, it's only 12 games, but so far he's showing everything you would have hoped to see this year: improved contact, harder hit balls, while maintaining a good eye at the plate and patience to draw walks. It's only his 2nd year of full-year pro ball, but it looks like he thriving so far in high A at age 20. No complaints and the team must feel pretty good about what they're seeing so far.
  6. jmlease1
    I'd say the Donaldson trade was a net win for the Twins: they got out from under a contract that wasn't a fit for where they were going and away from a player that was increasingly burdensome in the clubhouse and less effective on the field. That's really important for a team with greater payroll constraints. IKF is a decent enough utility guy, but not a significant contributor; the twins got as much value back from Gio Urshela who had a very nice year for the Twins. Sanchez was better than advertised behind the plate but never found his swing again. In just pure baseball value on the field, the Yankees did a bit better when you look at last season's production, but the contract impacts tilt it towards the Twins. I was a big Rortvedt booster but he's been totally unimpactful in that deal. In the end, trading Donaldson is definitely a net positive for the Twins and overall I think the Yankees might prefer a do-over, even if they managed to get ok production out of Donaldson and IKF collectively last season.
  7. jmlease1
    It is a bit of a complicated situation. the Twins like Gordon, but he's off to a dreadful start at the plate. Larnach has more upside, has an option, and has slowed a lot after a fast start. Castro has the same kinds of positional flexibility that Gordon has, but has an option left, and hasn't exactly lit the world on fire with his offense. I think there's a decent argument to be made that you hold on Gordon until Farmer is ready to come back, given that if Kirilloff joins the squad there isn't much available for ABs for Larnach if Buxton keeps DHing...but the choice is coming. Gordon is caught in the worst of the worst: he's been a little unlucky, but he's also been bad. there's basically no trade market for him now, and someone will take a chance on him, so I see little opportunity that he passes through waivers. I this team (like many others) struggles with knowing when to give up on one of their guys. It's one thing to cut bait on a Joe Smith 3 months in; he was an old player on a 1-year deal with no history. It's harder to be that ruthless with one of your own guys who you've seen perform better, I think. (or if it's an asset you traded for, like Pagan) Even if maybe you should. Which seems to be part of why we're sticking with kepler and Gordon, even if they really don't fit as well on the roster any longer. Sunk cost fallacy is hard to rise above.
  8. jmlease1
    Exactly the kind of game the Twins wanted to have. Really good offensive output, quality start from Ryan, and Headrick let the rest of the bullpen take the night off. Sets them up nicely for the rubber match tomorrow. Be great to steal the afternoon tilt on getaway day and finish the road trip with a series win and positive win total for the whole trip. Gallo sure seems to be determined to prove the doubters (like me) wrong. I hope he makes me look like the biggest damn fool of all time. :P
  9. jmlease1
    Rehab assignments have a pretty short timeline (20 days, I think?). After that, you have to put that player back on the 26-man roster or exercise an option to send them back down to the minors. Pretty sure that's impossible with Polanco. Kirilloff has one left I think, but I'm not sure sending him back down to AAA longer really changes anything for him. Lewis is very likely to have the option exercised to give him playing time since he's coming off a serious injury and didn't play at all in spring training. But once Polanco's rehab assignment is up, he's back on the MLB roster absent a relapse that puts him on the IL again.
  10. jmlease1
    Julien probably goes back down first, he's got an option and need to play every day. Castro goes down when Polanco comes back. Garlick is probably the next to be dropped; with his contract he will likely slide through and can come off the 40-man again, and I don't see him sticking unless Larnach is still slumping. With no options, Gordon gets more rope, same with Kepler. Twins fans need to get right with the idea that teams simply won't toss away an asset for nothing unless they have no other choice. Looking forward to having Kirilloff back on the squad, I'm a huge fan of his ability at the plate. Any time his wrist has been ok he's stung the ball, and hopefully his Kirk Gibson operation has fixed it for him.
  11. jmlease1
    very happy to see Noah Miller off to a good start at the plate. That "HR" is inflating his SLG a bit, but he's still off to a very nice start at the dish, getting hits and taking some walks. The glove looks pretty smooth with him, so it really comes down to how much his hit tool develops. If he can keep making consistent good contact I think we'll all be pretty pleased. (I'm less concerned about his power production at age 20) Enlow is off to a good start as well. It'll be interesting to see where he finishes the season. Maybe he's finally all the way back from injury. Dude has had some tough breaks: missed a key developmental year in 2020, major injury in 2021 after starting the season looking strong, tough year breaking back in as a pitcher in 2022 while also moving up a level, to getting left off the 40-man this season. He's 24 and we've been waiting and hoping for a long time with him, but if he's able to get it back together for the full season then he's an interesting player to watch.
  12. jmlease1
    With the top or the red Sox order featuring 3 LH hitters in the next 4 (including the first 2) projecting Thielbar to take the 7th makes a ton of sense. So really you're talking about maybe flipping Lopez & Jax for 6th v 8th...unless you wanted to put Pagan or Moran out against the Red Sox in the 6th, but that puts you in a different kind of problem where you're "saving" one of your best relievers for a 10th inning that might never happen. Did the manager really make an error here or did things just get weird in the 8th with Jax on the mound and it went sideways? Gray was really struggling last night, but did a fine job gutting through 5. Scattered a lot of baserunners and wriggled out of trouble. Offense needs to do better, that's just a reality. But sale was taking everything the ump was giving him...and he got a fair amount.
  13. jmlease1
    Winning road trips are great. If you go 41-40 on the road and 51-30 at home that's a nice 92 win season.
  14. jmlease1
    Feeling generally positive about the Twins chances in Boston. Would love for them to jump all over Sale a player I've never liked. Playing Boston right now is a great reminder of just how wrong i was about Trevor Story being a perfect fit for the Twins that they should have gone all in on.
  15. jmlease1
    I think it was a fine trade for both teams. Twins needed a starter, badly. LA needed bullpen help, especially cheap bullpen help. Both teams got what they wanted. Maeda's injury keeps this from being a total unqualified success for the Twins; instead of getting 4 seasons of a quality starter with the ability to be a front-line playoff pitcher, we're looking at more like 2 1/2, which is a bummer. But he was gold in 2020 and a key performer on a division winning team. Graterol hasn't been the lock-down flamethrower that can anchor the back of a bullpen like LA hoped, but he hasn't been bad either. more of a solid guy that a star, he's missed some time and arguably under performed his stuff a little, but as is more and more clear: 100mph doesn't mean that much in MLB if it's flat and straight. He's a bit too hittable for me. I think both teams are fairly happy with the results of the trade. If forced to pick a winner, I'd say it's the Twins because starters are just more valuable and harder to find than relievers.
  16. jmlease1
    This year's efforts could significantly change their FA signing track record; Correa (he was a FA after all), Vazquez, Solano, and Gallo (even if I'm still queasy about Gallo) are all FA signings that are looking pretty smart so far. We'll see. I definitely like the extension for Lopez, feels very different than say the one we made for Hughes.
  17. jmlease1
    Very exciting news! The numbers are very good for the twins, IMHO: Lopez is a quality starter and has already shown he's worth that kind of money. Whether you like fWAR or bWAR (I tend to like bWAR more for pitchers as showing what they actually did and their value, and fWAR for trying to get a feel for future value) Lopez has already been worth that kind of contract that last two seasons, and that's even with him missing substantial time in 2021. I'm frankly amazed that it's only a 4 year deal at this money; I honestly would have expected 5-6 years as more likely, or higher money at fewer years. That's really good business for the team. At the same time it's life-changing, generational money for Lopez and his family, so I can understand his desire to get locked in and guaranteed. He'll still have an opportunity to test free agency at an age where guys can still command huge money if he performs anywhere near his capacity over this contract. Locking in Lopez long-term feels like a great move. The interesting comp is Berrios, who was a more accomplished and consistent pitcher when Toronto acquired him than Lopez was when the Twins acquired him. Lopez might have been seen as having a higher ceiling, but Berrios had been both consistent and healthy. Twins got an extra 1/2 season in control by acquiring Lopez in the off-season, but otherwise...lots of similarities. Berrios got a longer and higher AAV for his extension (which to date has been not so great), so this is interesting. the Rodon comp is interesting as well: Rodon had probably more significant health risks, but had also proven that ceiling after 2022. He also had more negotiating power as a free agent, but it's a huge difference in years and dollars. If that's the going rate for starting pitchers...this looks like good business indeed.
  18. jmlease1
    MLB will do nothing. Rocco probably gets no more than a token fine for the ejection, since he didn't cross any lines or get abusive. I expect the umpiring crew to do nothing about Cole today. Will Cole try to get a little advantage with extra rosin or whatever rosin compound NY may or may not be using? Dunno, but nothing would shock me. But I would be watching his spin rates pretty closely if I were the Twins...
  19. jmlease1
    The change in spin rates certainly is suspicious. Can't say I'm surprised to see pitchers still trying to push the limits and bend the rules. Rocco handled this pretty well, putting a spotlight on likely cheating by the Yankees but without crossing any lines on integrity. By couching his ejection based on a violation of procedure (from his perspective) he's standing up for his side without questioning the ump's ethics. Offense didn't get it done, Mahle struggled and it wasn't a great game for the Twins. But a win today washes it all away. And going in to the series I'm pretty sure most of us would have been perfectly ok with a split.
  20. jmlease1
    I'll give you Paddack, whom I rate, and I think will be in the rotation next season. But I think those bastards at Rice ruined Canterino's arm and he'll never be able to stay healthy enough to start. He's probably going to have to go to the 'pen, and it's a damn shame.
  21. jmlease1
    Seriously. With Varland, SWR, and Ober in AAA we might even have 8. Rocco has done a fine job with the pitching staff this season but more importantly the starters are a) deserving of the longer rope, and b) much more talented. Could this be the Year of Lopez for the Twins? Jorge is looking back to form and Pablo has been a stud. Really liked Jorge's work against the Yankees last night. Velocity was great, he worked guys, he's not giving free passes, and he's trusting his stuff.
  22. jmlease1
    Really, really good win last night. Liked how every time a big question was asked the Twins had an answer. Varland looked wobbly to start and just when you wondered if he was going to get rocked against the Evil Empire, he cleans it up and settles into a quality start. Offense looked like it might have gone silent after the big explosion the other night, and then it just started chipping away. Big question on whether Pagan could handle an important inning and he got it done. Jorge Lopez is in a good run of form right now and looks like the reliever we were hoping for when we traded for him. That's going to be huge. And just a great game by Correa. He really looked like the all-star SS. Some very nice defensive plays, the bat was cooking, he was the full package last night.
  23. jmlease1
    I think our rotation last season was totally adverse to the way anyone wants to manage, LOL.
  24. jmlease1
    After 2 starts last season, Sonny Gray landed on the IL. Ryan wasn't bad, but was struggling to get deeper into the games because of his pitch counts. Archer only pitched into the 5th one time in the first two months. Bundy did well the first 3 outings, but it was unsustainable. Ober only stayed healthy for 3 weeks. No question that the rotation is deeper, stronger, and more reliable this season.
  25. jmlease1
    Alex Isola is off to a nice start at AA. Be interesting to see where the Twins have him as a catcher by the end of the season, because if he can hit consistently and be solid behind the plate I'd feel a lot better about our short-term catching depth.
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