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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Very nice win for the Twins. Mahle looked good, and it's good to see the velocity where it's supposed to be. With such a huge lead, it was probably the right decision to pull him after 5 and let Alcala (who looked pretty good) and Sands (who did not) finish it off. Trevor Larnach is off to a very nice start, and with Kepler picking up a ding he's going to be needed even more to provide left-handed thump in the lineup. He's looking capable so far, but we've seen him kick butt in limited supply before, so if he stays healthy he should be a strong contributor. Gallo is making me hate the signing much less right now, lol. But this is why they signed him and this is what he can do. He's also going to have 4 K days, so gotta hope the good ones can carry you through. I know there a little "meh, it's just the Royals and the Marlins" to this win streak, but road wins can be hard to come by, even if the teams aren't very good. KC is still going to win 50-60 games from someone even they're dreadful so sweeping them on the road is big. Winning the series opener in Miami is big; take 1 of 2 the rest of the way and they win the series and come home with a 5-1 road trip and two series wins. I love seeing the Twins winning road series. Team is off to a really good start.
  2. jmlease1
    I think this is a fine list. The Hrbek & Puckett HRs are deeply ingrained in my Twins memory. I'll admit, I'd sorta forgotten about the Baylor one because the Hrbek blast was just so awesome. As an honorable mention I want to name the Cuddyer/Morneau back-to-back jacks in the playoffs from the aughts (definitely not "important" enough to make the list, since we lost that game) because that was a) as loud as I'd ever gotten to experience the Metrodome, and b) it's the only time I've made a called shot. Turned to my pal after the first one and screamed, "He's going to hit one out, we're going back-to-back" (had to scream, because it was ear-bleeding loud in there) and then we all went mad as another one sailed into the seat. I'm still kinda mad at Torii for diving after that stupid single.
  3. jmlease1
    I know it's only one appearance and one inning, but oooof, Pagan. There's a legion of fans who have wanted him gone from the jump and he's doing nothing to sell anyone on the idea that he's somehow been fixed. Good to see Gallo get it going. He's likely to be a boom or bust player all year, but maybe he'll have enough games like this. Larnach has been playing very well and it's nice to see. I hope he stays healthy. I know some may be "meh, who cares it's just sorry, no-account KC" but a sweep is a sweep, especially on the road. It's a fine way to start the season. Hopefully we can keep it going and win the series in Miami. Coming home at 5-1 would be awesome.
  4. jmlease1
    In these examples, with all 4 players on a roster at the same time, I think the rookie in question is most likely to go to Cruz or Correa, depending on what kind of mentorship they're looking for: do they want something a little more paternal? Then it's going to be the elder statesman in Cruz. If they'd rather talk to someone closer to their own age and experience, then it's probably Correa. Buxton is probably the next most likely if they're needing the mental & emotional boost; he's a guy who could help someone restore confidence in themselves. A Donaldson is the least likely: he's provide technical advice, but the prickly nature would make him less approachable for a player in a hole. Guys that provide technocratic leadership like Donaldson often struggle to add to the mix when things are going wrong, and won't be as good at "rallying the troops" so to speak. And when you're a difficult personality (like Donaldson is) they can sometimes make things worse. Correa is a really smart guy, and I think part of what makes people gravitate towards him as a leader is he's not dogmatic in his approaches. He's got the flexibility to adjust in response to the situation and the player(s). He's got that force of personality that people gravitate towards, but without being an ass.
  5. jmlease1
    Remember when people were falling all over themselves to proclaim how the front office had made the most disastrous mistake in the world leaving Akil Baddoo exposed to the Rule 5 draft? Hmmm...
  6. jmlease1
    Offense needs to get in gear, but the bullpen did a fine job shutting KC down. I'm not sad about starting the season with consecutive 2-0 victories. On the road, I take any victory I can get. Buxton is a guy who can create runs out of nothing. He's off to a nice start at the plate.
  7. jmlease1
    Julien didn't draw a walk? I'm vaguely shocked.
  8. jmlease1
    There's some interesting players to watch in Saint Paul. Really want to see how Balazovic responds to a) coming off an injury-filled and ineffective season and b) dealing with the broken jaw and the team's resultant unhappiness. Wallner is worth keeping an eye on: he'll hit HRs, but I'll be watching to see if he keeps the K rates manageable and makes enough contact. Hope Martin doesn't need surgery and comes back soon. Laweryson is an interesting pitcher. Sounds like the Twins may have locked him in to the bullpen and I feel like that's the right choice for him. He did some good stuff in the minors last season and I think we could see him in MLB this season if some guys in the bullpen falter. There's room for a guy with a funky delivery.
  9. jmlease1
    I'm very enthusiastic about the starting pitching depth right now, but we're not at the point where we can seriously consider trading any of it for help/upgrades in other areas, unless the season collapses on us and we have to go into sell mode near the deadline. (or if everyone is healthy and crushing it, I guess?) Because the reality is, Gray, Mahle, and Maeda may not be back next season. (I think the Twins would be wise to try and sign one of them, but there's complicating factors for all of them) So while the depth looks great this year, it does potentially thin out for next season. (Though again, assembling a rotation from Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, and Varland/Woods Richardson is a much better place to start than in recent years!) Hopefully, players like Ryan & Ober, Varland & Woods Richardson become mainstays to the point where we're consistently looking at only needing one young pitcher from the pipeline to step up per season at the start and have 2-3 others ready to go in Saint Paul. That's what a true starting pitching pipeline looks like, and we're seeing signs that we might be getting there. The rotation is good and deep this year, with real potential for next even if all the free agents go. There are talented prospects rising through the system with arrivals ranging from 2023-2025 (Balazovic, Prielipp, Festa, Raya...man, I want to put Canterino on here but I just can't). Never enough pitching. The way the Twins are evolving we also are going to be much less reliant on signing veteran retreads hoping for a bounceback to fill a big role. (I think it's fine to sign one to fill the 5th slot now and then...but the Twins were having to go for 2-3 of those guys because the system wasn't producing talent that could compete)
  10. jmlease1
    I think that's right. With no off-day and later in the season he likely leaves Lopez in, but with a planned off-day and a full bullpen why not get some guys some work and make sure you secure the win? Hopefully the follies with the bases loaded is more of a fluke than a trend. I tend to think that if we load up the bases a lot the runs will come.
  11. jmlease1
    Some people would rather be angry, I guess. I'm very happy with a win. Lopez did quite well, he should be pretty fun to watch this season.
  12. jmlease1
    twins are the better team, but it's baseball and anything can happen. Would be great to get off to a good start by whipping up on KC out the gate. Frankly, I'm just happy we're starting on the road since we might have snow flying this week in Mpls!
  13. jmlease1
    I'm pretty sure you're overstating the number of no-hitters the Twins had going last year, but whatever. My point was there was no predetermined yank point for the staff as a whole. Each pitcher is going to have a different calculus even if the results ended up being similar. Here's an example: Chris Archer was on a general pitch limit because of his health and effectiveness. He would get pulled from a start when he neared that limit regardless of how well he was pitching, because of that limit. Joe Ryan didn't have a limit anywhere near that. The Twins were perfectly comfortable letting him run up 90-100 pitches. He got pulled from a game after 7 innings of no-hit ball, though. Why? Because he was at 106 pitches, and was slated to start against Cleveland for his next start in a game that at the time was looked at as being critical to win the division. (We weren't totally out of it by then). If it had been the last week of the season and we were already eliminated, would they have let him go longer and try for the no-hitter? We'll never know for sure, but it seems likely. The decision on when to pull Joe Ryan wasn't predetermined before the game. let's look at Sonny Gray, since he always gets thrown into this conversation: he threw 75 or less pitches 6 times last season. 1 of those he had an injury, 2 he was making his first start coming off injury, and the remainder were games where he wasn't particularly effective (or just bad). he got pulled when he'd only given up 1 hit twice: once when he pulled up lame early in the year, and the other late in the season when he had walked 4 guys and was at 90 pitches through 5.
  14. jmlease1
    It's really more about a philosophical divide. There's a number of people who are particularly agitated about this because they don't like the ways the game of baseball has changed and evolved over the past 20-30 years. Longer starts (along with things like more hit & run plays, stolen bases, bunts, and a focus on hitting for average over hitting for power) are part of what they believe makes baseball "better". Others are less concerned about it.
  15. jmlease1
    There wasn't a predetermined "yank point" last year either. Each pitcher was evaluated based on their track record, their health, the game situation, their effectiveness, the pitch count, who was coming up, what the status of the bullpen was, etc. the fact that our starters got yanked after 5ish inning last season had a lot more to do with their performance than any pre-determined yank point. I'm expect similar evaluations to take place this season, but with a better starting rotation, the odds of them pitching more innings is higher. Gray gets cited all the time about being unhappy for getting pulled "early", but dude only made 24 starts last season because of various injuries and he's also said that he never got his legs under him after the fast spring training. So his lower inning totals might have something to do with protecting the pitcher from himself too. Dude can pitch, but he's also 10 years in and only thrown 150 innings in a MLB season 4 times, and made 30+ starts 4 times. He's not exactly the poster child for durability.
  16. jmlease1
    This team should be good. How good depends on a number of different players stepping up, i think, but the good thing is the Twins have depth answers if/when some of them get injured or falter. There's very few players here on scholarship and they clearly are in the mode where rookies will have to force their way on to the team rather than get their shot because there's no one else. Position players to watch for me: Gallo (can he find his swing again and be a useful player on offense again?), Buxton (the most exciting Twin, and if he's healthy for most of the season could contend for the MVP), Miranda (can he take another step forward as a hitter and settle in as a solid 3B?), Gordon (how much power does he bring to the table?), and Kirilloff (if his wrist is right finally, he's got a sweet swing). Pitchers to watch: Ryan (I love the way he works and if that split works for him against lefties he could be great), P. Lopez (am looking forward to watching him pitch, never saw a Marlins game last season), J. Lopez (if he can get it back together, then he's going to be a real weapon in the bullpen), Alcala (he looks healthy and has the talent to be a very effective RH reliever), and Moran (I love guys with filthy changeups. So fun!) There's questions that need to be answered, but also a lot of upside and opportunity. I think this team is contending for the division.
  17. jmlease1
    Larnach, Gordon...those guys can hit too. farmer crushes lefties. Solano hit lefties like he's Arraez, so these guys platoon pretty well until the two guys who were a little behind make their debut. I think you're overly pessimistic about the lineup. But beyond that, it's easier to run out a vet like Castro for a couple of weeks until Polanco comes back (a top 5 offensive 2B, BTW) then to jump a guy like Julien 2 levels just because he looked good in spring training. but this is about Coulombe. He's a fringe-y LHP who isn't elite against lefties, and is just ok against righties. Can't really be counted on to throw multiple innings, and is solidly behind Thielbar (who has been great) and Moran (who has been better than people realize and already thrown almost as many innings in a Twins uniform as Coulombe) who has big time upside with that elite changeup. not sure Coulombe is going to be missed all that much.
  18. jmlease1
    It's always beneficial to have players who can fill multiple roles if needed, especially for bench players. Some players might complain about not having a direct and limited position role (i.e., playing 3B every day and only playing 3B), there's not a lot of evidence that it actually hurts their performance when they're being placed in roles that they can actually do. It's a problem when you ask Miguel Sano to play OF to slot someone else in at 3B or 1B; it's not a problem when you ask Nick Gordon to prepare to play 2B & OF because he can actually play both spots competently and has experience there. Teams have limited bench options and when you have guys that have positional flexibility like Farmer it gives you more options to take a game late through pinch-hitting and/or defensive substitutions. While I would prefer that Polanco & Kirilloff were ready on Opening Day, having a bench of Farmer, Solano, Castro, and Jeffers certainly gives the Twins options throughout the game for the infield and outfield.
  19. jmlease1
    I liked Coulombe as lefty depth, but I'm much higher on Moran as a significant contributor. (and Moran is younger, cheaper, better, and has more upside) And much as I share everyone's frustration with the Twins sticking with Pagan, they're probably not competing for the same spot. How much work would we have gotten out of a 3rd lefty in the bullpen? as a decent, but not elite lefty that's where Coulombe would be in the pecking order behind Thielbar & Moran. Would have loved to have stashed him in AAA as insurance against injury/ineffectiveness, but he had an out and he took it. Good move by him. So let's not get too excited here: he's a 33 year-old reliever who has never had an elite season in his entire career and has bounced between decent and "meh". he was solid but unspectacular in 2021 and didn't pitch enough in 2020 or 2022 to be impactful for the Twins. And other teams are going to know about the out, so it's going to be very very hard to trade him for anything, even a bucket of balls.
  20. jmlease1
    Felt the exact same way. After 1:45 listening to all the ways things could go wrong for this team, and how the depth was already being wiped out, I was expecting predictions of the Twins in 3rd place, and instead both Gleeman and Bonnes have them contending for the division.
  21. jmlease1
    It certainly happens, and sometimes it even goes very well. Other times jumping guys straight from AA goes...poorly. My point is that it's hardly a sin to think Julien might be better off starting the season in AAA rather than jumping him straight in to MLB just because he looked good in spring training and had a breakthrough minor league season. I'm sure we will see Julien this season. And I think he's going to do well and get on base even in MLB. But I think they're making the smart play by starting him in AAA.
  22. jmlease1
    Seems about right. The good thing about where the Twins are right now is I don't think they'd finished last in any of these slots either. A couple of guys who are the best hitter at their position in the division, a couple of runners-up, and no one who is trash? That can score you quite a few runs.
  23. jmlease1
    As has been noted: Sands is being kept up to relieve. Ober is a starter, and the Twins (correctly) want to keep him stretched out as a starter to be available in case of injury to one of their current starters. We were never going to keep 6 starters, don't think there's a team in baseball that's going to roll out with a 6-man rotation to start the season. And frankly, all that's likely to do is put more stress on the bullpen. While Ober might have looked better in spring training than Maeda, Kenta is a veteran who, when healthy, was excellent for us. It's also much easier to slide him into a relief role if it proves that he doesn't have the ability to be a quality starter any longer after the injury. I'm a little baffled by the people who think Ed Julien is being wronged in some way by not getting a shot. While I'm really enthusiastic about his talent, let's keep in mind he's faced exactly zero pitches at AAA in his whole career. AA to MLB is a huge jump, even if he has looked good in spring training. With Polanco expected back (I'm also a little shocked at how many people have seemingly already decided that Polanco and Kirilloff are out for the year or something) soon, how much sense does it really make for Julien's development path to throw him in the fire? I mean, it worked so well for Celestino jumping him from AA to MLB! This way makes it easy to hang on to Castro for a couple of weeks and see what they have there and keep Julien on a smarter development path. We've got two minor injuries coming out of spring training from guys rehabbing injuries that knocked them out last season. That's not all that unusual. Miranda might be limited (but might be fine), and Buxton is just getting a little extra caution (he could play CF in an hour if he needed to) and care in the cold weather start. I'm feeling pretty good about where this team stands right now. My biggest questions are actually more about whether or not Gallo has himself back on track and how long a leash the front office will give him to get there, and Pagan...who has basically the same question. The great thing about the team's depth is Nick Gordon slots in easily at 2B against RHP, and Farmer or Solano can spell him against LHP. Larnach slots in easily in LF while Gallo mans 1B. Farmer or Castro can handle 3B if Miranda isn't ready for the field yet. Taylor has CF handled if they choose to give Buxton more time at DH early on. Even with 2 injuries out the gate, we still have no only the starting lineup well covered with established players, we still have backups.
  24. jmlease1
    I love that changeup from Moran. The walks aren't great, but it's a little easier to work around as a reliever who doesn't give up hard contact and hunts Ks. If he can keep the BB/9 to 4 or less, then he's a weapon in the bullpen. There's not much more for him to do in AAA and his upside is definitely higher than Coloumbe, so he'd be my pick if they only keep 2 LHP in the bullpen. But his splits make him viable as more than a lefty specialist, so if they kept another one he still fits nicely on the team. His presence is one of the reasons to feel better about the bullpen depth on this squad.
  25. jmlease1
    I think there's 3 teams that are competing for the division this season (Cle, Chi, MN) and two teams that are not (KC & Det). I don't know how much there really is to separate the three at the top right now, but I think I would tip Cle & MN just a bit of Chi. I think the ChiSox didn't do a lot to improve the team this season (addition by subtraction in LaRussa will help, but replacing Abreu's bat with Benintendi is asking for a lot of improvement on the defensive side to make up for the lesser production) and their depth remains relatively poor. Cleveland is a really interesting question. they probably still need another bat (Zunino doesn't do much for me either) because if any of their young guys regresses it could get thin fast. I did like the Bell signing for them; it's the sort of move the should have been doing for the past couple of years to shore up the offense. they have one of the best managers in baseball, but also overperformed their pythagorean levels last year, were elite in 1-run games, and had the fewest missed games to injury last season. Some of that is luck, and I don't like betting on luck. Twins have a deeper and better rotation, better depth, and a more settled bullpen than the team that led the division for most of the season in 2022. The defense should also be better. The offense should be as good, but it's a little hard to say considering how ruined by injuries the team was last season. Injuries sent this team from being a quality division contender for most of the season to the worst team in baseball the last month or so. If they have average health this season, they'll be there in the end.
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