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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Right now I see Miranda starting the season in AAA trying to rebuild his value to the team and on the trade market..
  2. jmlease1
    How is it biting us, though? He's basically unplayable for us right now, so either we carry a pitcher on the roster we can't use (unless they let us DL him again?) in order to hope that he can get right for next season and commit to him for another $5M or we move on with a pitcher who is likely to be better this season. there's essentially no long term harm, only the opportunity cost of him maybe regaining his half-season all-star form next season before becoming a free agent.
  3. jmlease1
    Cano is an all-star now...he was a fringe player when traded and as bad as Lopez was for the Twins last season, Cano was worse in Baltimore. Check the stats: Cano was awful. he completely changed who he was as a pitcher, and you simply can't assume that he would have done that here. Sometimes the player can't or won't change who they are until they get dealt and find themselves in a las chance situation. And let's not pretend Povich is lighting it up. People around here liked him as a prospect, but he's still who he was: a fringe prospect who needs to develop better command or he's going to be trying to reinvent himself in the pen in 2 years. there was ONE other player from the Twins in the trade: a rookie ball lottery ticket who has only thrown 15 innings since being dealt. not that big of a bundle. It didn't work out, but we didn't damage the farm system in any significant way.
  4. jmlease1
    what difference does it make in the context of Jorge Lopez, though? For him we gave up Povich (who was in A-ball with control issues...and is now in AA with control issues), Cano (who was awful last year for the O's in AAA and MLB; he's been great this season after making a massive change to how he pitches and is 29), and Rojas (who has only thrown 15 innings in rookie ball). Right now Povich is going to need some serious work to be an MLB pitcher, because while he hunts Ks, he walks too many guys, is too hittable, and can't get through enough innings. Cano is the star of that trade, but sometimes players need to change teams before they're willing to make a major change in how they play. the trade didn't work out, mostly because Lopez struggled to while he was here...and a lot of that may have been because of his personal situation. But we didn't get destroyed, and anyone who walks in and says they knew Cano was going to do this at the time of the deal is flat-out lying. there's liuterally nothing in his career that suggests this is who he could be, because he had to make a radical change to get there, after nearly flunking out with a second organization. I like the trade we did here because we get a pitcher that can be used now and we were able to move on from a guy whom we simply couldn't trust in any kind of leverage situation. one of my biggest concerns about this FO isn't about the trades they make or who they sign, it's whether or not they stick with a guy too long and get trapped in the sunk cost fallacy. (they ain't alone on this one in MLB, but it's still an issue) I'm glad they didn't keep trying to "fix" Jorge Lopez, and in this deal they got someone who they should be able to use now, and found a place for a player who seems like a good guy that will help him out in life. I approve of both the humanity of this action and the baseball move.
  5. jmlease1
    I realize the Lopez deal and the Mahle deal were made at the same trade deadline last season, but they really have nothing to do with each other. Maybe leave the Mahle trade out of this? The Lopez deal didn't work, but a lot of it seems to be for reasons unrelated to talent. Dude is going through something you don't wish on anyone, and while some people can leave it aside when they go to work or even find solace in being able to focus on something else...Lopez doesn't seem to be that guy. That's how it goes, and there's no way to know it until you live it. (and it's not like Povich is looking great, and cano stunk last year before figuring it out at...28?) There seems to be some good humanity behind this deal as well as some good baseball reasons in it. Sounds like both pitchers needed a new environment, and this deal could end up being a win for everyone. That's nice. Floro should slot in nicely in the bullpen to pitch in the 6th and 7th innings with Pagan (who has been reasonable this year) and if Stewart and Thielbar can get back healthy to where they were...suddenly the bullpen doesn't look bad at all.
  6. jmlease1
    I love sweeping the CWS. Always great, never bad. Sure it would have been nice if the offense didn't wait until very very late to get moving...but a sweep is a sweep. Lot of people picked CWS to be above the Twins this season. As frustrating as the Twins have been this season, imagine being a CWS fan. Their offense has been sub-par as well (as some of us predicted, though they appear to have been right in moving on from Abreu), their starting pitching has just been ok (and Lynn has been awful), and their defense has been dreadful (again). They look like a team on the way down and 2021 looks like the fluke instead of 2022 being a blip. When your enemy is drowning, don't throw them a floater, throw them an anvil. This sweep was an anvil. I like seeing it.
  7. jmlease1
    Gray looked pretty wobbly at the start, great work by him to limit the damage and settle down into a quality start again. Julien had a tough night at the plate; it'll be interesting to see if this is a blip or if MLB has started to find a way to pitch to him and he'll need to make real adjustments. I think he'll be fine, but how young players react to games like this tells you some things about them. Correa has been so consistent since moving into the leadoff spot. He's been making a big impact. (can't bang on him for not making the play in the 9th; that was a really tough one, a highlight reel play if he somehow pulls it off) While some of our best relievers have made it a little nervvy out there lately, they've come through in the end. Good job by the pen last night. And how many times is that now this season that the Twins have had a ball bounce off the top of the padding?!? It's got to be at least 3 now in that exact same spot. Crazy.
  8. jmlease1
    I'm not sure there's much of a market for Keuchel right now. He was bad in 2021 and worse in 2022, becoming very hittable and pairing it with too many walks. The ERA looks good right now, but the as you noted, the WHIP is concerning. He's arguably pitching worse this year in AAA than he did last season in AAA for Texas, even if the overall results have been better, so I'm sure teams are looking at him and thinking "how is he going to survive in MLB if he's giving up that many hits and walks in AAA?" I think he might have a better chance just after the trade deadline when 1-2 teams didn't get the starting pitching help they wanted/needed, but I'm still not sure he's a great option. It's just hard for a guy who gives up a lot of hits and an average to above average number of walks without being a strikeout king to get it done in MLB. I would not promise him a spot in the Twins rotation, I would not go to a 6-man rotation to bring him up. Someone might take a chance on him if he gets his release, but I don't know if it's going to be on a contender, which I imagine is what he wants.
  9. jmlease1
    Good work by the offense last night. Much as I love seeing them jump all over a pitcher for a big number in the first inning, it's frustrating when the offense doesn't do anything for the rest of the game, as has happened a few times. Last night they kept it going and did a nice job adding additional runs on top and giving the pitching staff plenty of room to work with. Ryan had a bit of an odd night: the stuff was humming nicely, but he left too many pitches in the heart of the plate. He needs to keep that splitter down in the zone and work the fastball more on the edges of the zone. He's not going to be successful leaving pitches middle-middle very often. But I'm not that worried; I think he'll get his command back and be fine. Nice to see Buxton have a big game at the plate. He'd really been struggling and you could see his frustration. What a relief for him to hammer that first dinger and you could see how pumped up he was about it. Hope this is the start of a big run for him again. I love beating the CWS. I don't care if they kinda stink this year, beating them is a real pleasure every time.
  10. jmlease1
    It's interesting. I have a feeling he might get priced out of our range, because I have no interest in sending anyone like Festa or Raya out for him (or Kirilloff, but the Cubs seem to be looking for pitching). If they want to start talking about guys like Cory Lewis or Zebby Matthews, I'm much more interested in the idea. Would he keep slamming lefties like he has this season? He's never had bad splits over his career, and when he's been going good he hits everyone. It's a concern, but he sure seems to be healthy and rolling right now.
  11. jmlease1
    I don't always agree with KLaw, but I definitely respect him. And he's pretty transparent about his methodologies and aware of his potential biases. So if he's ranking three Twins prospects in his Top 25, that's awfully nice. I'm not sure we'd get anyone else in his top 100, but I think he likes our overall organizational depth
  12. jmlease1
    Severino is having a terrific season; the Ks are still a little worrisome, but ever since moving up to High A he's really shown his power potential. If there's room for him to play consistently in AAA, I'd like to see what he could do up a level. Happy to see Austin Martin get a couple of hits, but even happier to see him playing. Hope his health stays good. He's had some rotten luck, but I believe in his talent. Cossetti seems to have settled in at Cedar Rapids just fine. He's a very interesting prospect to me: he's never going to hit national lists because of age, but if his hit tool continues to play and he can be a viable catcher...that's a nice player to have coming along in the system. He's looking like someone who is in AA next season, and that's excellent news.
  13. jmlease1
    Ryan is in that sweet spot where he's both one of the Twins most valuable players and most valuable assets in a trade. Which means there's little to no chance the Twins would even consider dealing him. he's basically in the "unless you're offering something monumental, we're hanging up now" category if anyone calls the twins about him. The Twins are not shopping him in any way shape or form. Joe Ryan is exactly what the Twins have been working to find for years now: a cost-controlled playoff caliber starter under team control for multiple seasons. Even if the Twins stunk this season, he's not a guy you'd look to deal even if you were trying to blow up the whole thing, unless you decided you weren't going to try and be good for three years and there's very little reason to think that's a good decision for the franchise. I get we're closing in on the trade deadline and the site is trying to generate related content, but this isn't great. On the other hand, you suckered me into commenting, so...
  14. jmlease1
    Experienced manager or good health from pretty much everyone except deGrom?. Experienced manager or epic levels of spending in free agency over the past two seasons (Semien 7/$175M, Seager 10/$315M, Eovaldi 3/$52M, Gray 4/$56M, Heaney 2/$25M, deGrom 5/$185M)? Texas is bottom 10 in baseball in players lost to injury and bottom 10 in days lost to injury. They lost deGrom (and Seager has missed some time) but otherwise they're about as healthy as you could expect.
  15. jmlease1
    I like Nelson Cruz and I think he might have a future in managing, if he wants it. But let's pump the brakes for a second: you're talking about him going from playing directly to the top dugout job, which is a major challenge and could be setting him up to fail. Let's look at your list a little more closely on guys who supposedly moved to managing right after playing: Craig Counsell, Brewers (2016): 73-89 (retired from playing in 2011) Dave Roberts, Dodgers (2016): 91-71 (retired from playing in 2008) Aaron Boone, Yankees (2018): 100-62 (retired from playing in 2009) Alex Cora, Red Sox (2018): 108-54 (WS Champions) (retired from playing in 2011) Gabe Kapler, Phillies (2018): 80-82 (retired from playing in 2010) Rocco Baldelli, Twins (2019): 101-60 (retired from playing in 2010) David Ross, Cubs (2020): 34-26 (retired from playing in 2016) Mark Kotsay, Athletics (2022): 60-102 (retired from playing in 2013) Skip Schumaker, Marlins (2023): Currently 53-43 (retired from playing in 2015) Only David Ross had fewer than 5 years between playing and MLB managing. The average here is like 7 years. Expecting Cruz to step in a year after retiring (and not entirely on his own terms) with essentially no coaching experience seems like a risky move. He'd probably be well served to spend some time on someone's staff (he'd likely make an excellent hitting coach or bench coach immediately) first. Literally no one on this list went straight from playing to managing; all of them had several years before starting their first MLB managing job.
  16. jmlease1
    Be interesting to see if the Twins can add some velocity for him. I'm guessing they were attracted to the slider, maybe saw some promise in the splitter as a potential quality 3rd pitch? I think his comments about the ACC were interesting, relating to the coaching/playing time issue. Maybe he's just a no-BS kinda guy who doesn't play political games in the clubhouse. Maybe he's harder to coach. he certainly didn't get much of an opportunity at VA Tech, so might just a be little residual unhappiness...
  17. jmlease1
    Worry about next year's 40-man next year. there's always some chaff that can be slid off and we will have openings from guys like Gray and Maeda and Solano likely moving on. And frankly, Nick Gordon has to worry about whether he can get the 26-man spot back. because Julien is not going anywhere, so he's got to show that he's better than Castro and/or Gallo or he's going to be waived. Paddack will need a spot at some point, but he may not complete rehab before the end of the year. But there are still options for the 40-man this season.
  18. jmlease1
    Kirilloff is 25; Goldschmidt is 35. they have the exact same OPS+ right now. Goldschmidt is having one of his worst seasons at the plate as a pro, Kirilloff is having his best. Goldschmidt makes $26M per season, Kirilloff makes what...league minimum? there's no question that Goldschmidt is a far more accomplished player with a consistent track record of being a great hitter (and has deserved to win at least some of the defensive hardware he's gotten), and his right-handed bat would fit great in the Twins lineup, but trading Kirilloff feels like a move the Twins would seriously regret in a year.
  19. jmlease1
    Great to see Brooks Lee on fire like this. He's having a fine season and looking very much like the prospect we want him to be. (30 doubles in 77 games is a LOT. Love it) I go back and forth between promoting him right now. He seems capable of going up another level, but at the same time this is his first full season in pro ball and he's doing great at AA already. I guess this is one of those ones where I'll defer to the development staff and be ok with whatever call they make, whether it's pushing him up to AAA or letting him roll in AA. So far he's doing great, and I'm very happy to see it. Schobel got off to a nice start. I didn't expect him to be scared of AA, but I'm sure it felt good to get a couple of knocks out the gate. He's been moved fairly aggressively and responded well. very curious to see what his ceiling is as a player. E-Rod is having an interesting season. I have some concerns about his ability to make consistent contact, but the ball jumps off his bat and he's certainly very willing to take a walk. I suppose the biggest thing he needs is ABs and continued good health. He didn't have a major knee injury, but any surgery sets a player back. I can definitely see why he's so highly regarded as a prospect.
  20. jmlease1
    I think the kind of overpay required, along with the fact the Goldschmidt is only under contract for one more season, AND the additional payroll the Twins would be taking on makes this a no. Especially since Kirilloff seems to be really hitting a stride, and is clearly healthy again...so is that good business for the Twins?
  21. jmlease1
    Maeda looked really good. If he's getting that kind of movement on his splitter and slider while holding that velocity on his fastball, he's going to be really hard to face. Glad to see him looking so good. Julien is on a real heater right now. He's looking very confident at the plate and showing superior understanding of the strike zone. I've been very impressed with his ability to cover the whole plate and do damage when he decides to swing. This is what we hoped for from him and he's doing great. Heck he even made a quality play on defense out there, going to his right to make a good play and then making a strong and accurate throw to first! Kirilloff was looking rough last night, just couldn't quite catch up to some pitches. But I think it was a good sign that he kept with his approach, and got rewarded with a big knock late. I'd like Duran to have cleaner outings, but holy cow he's hard to hit.
  22. jmlease1
    It's a shame Gordon hasn't been healthy, but he also stunk to start the season and doesn't have anywhere near the positional flexibility that Castro has. If the call is between the two of them, Castro wins. He's been a solid bench player, his flexibility it valuable when dealing with injuries, and he's got another great ability: availability. but is he as much of an asset beyond this season? Hard to say he is. The flexibility is great, but it might not be as necessary with some of the Twins other options coming up and players like Kirilloff and Julien and Lewis proving their worth at the plate. It's a tough beat for Nick Gordon who seems like a good dude and overcome a lot, but he was staggeringly bad at the plate to start the season, and while he showed signs in May of turning it around, that's still only 9 games. He's not a great defensive player at any position, and basically can only play 2B and OF (doesn't have the range or arm for SS, doesn't have the arm for 3B) and isn't great at any of them (solid in LF, acceptable in CF). Castro is better and more useful defensively. Gordon has more upside offensively, but hasn't shown it consistently.
  23. jmlease1
    reliever makes some sense; we were a little thin there even before Stewart and Thielbar went down with injury. It'd be great to balance out the OF with a RH hitter in theory...but who is really available that is going to be a true upgrade, be an impact bat and not spend tons of prospect capital for? Keep in mind that in the Teoscar Hernandez discussion (a player who seems to be down to one skill, hitting lefties) we're still talking about a player than while tied for 3rd on his team in ABs has still only gotten 84 of them against LHP. he's played in every single game for Seattle. So how much impact is a RH OF really going to have? adding a 3B seems like a waste: Solano is hitting well and can play there, Farmer can play there, and we have Royce Lewis (who was hitting very well) coming back from injury even if Miranda doesn't turn it around. I want Lewis out there when he's healthy again.
  24. jmlease1
    I'm not sure any of these options work for the Twins? Sure, Lane Thomas fits for what we need on the roster and I'd be pretty happy swapping Gallo or Kepler for him, but the Nats are going to want a bomb for him as a breakout player who is under team control for 2 more seasons after this. I don't think they're going to take a discount because he doesn't have a lengthy track record, and he's the kind of player that even assuming the Nats are selling (and they should be) that they can hold on to at least until the off-season if not the next trade deadline unless they get a big bid. Justin Turner doesn't seem like he'd be available; Boston is contending for the Wild Card at 1.5 games back, so I don't expect them to be selling anyone unless someone makes them an idiotic offer and I'd rather than not be us. Maybe if they sink rapidly in the next 10 days, but they'd need to be pretty bad for them to go from buyers to sellers. Teoscar Hernandez is the most likely option/fit: veteran on an expiring with one real role: mash lefties. but not sure Seattle sees themselves as sellers right now. Maybe right up at the deadline they'll be far enough off the pace that they'd look to sell? The bigger issue/risk is whether or not Hernandez has enough value to make a difference as a guy who only plays against lefties.
  25. jmlease1
    I like this analysis of the Twins tendencies in drafting, much more subtle and more insightful. I think it makes total sense that as an organization they try to lean in on the strengths they see in the draft and try to draft players (and I'm sure this applies more to later round picks then say their first couple of picks and impacts those pick more strongly) that can be impacted by what they see as their developmental strengths. Overall I feel like the Twins have put together and maintained a relatively strong farm system; without a ton of high picks their strengths are more in terms of depth now, but even graduating a fair number of players into MLB service (or dealing prospects) they haven't bottomed out the way that we've seen other clubs go. Before this year's draft there was some chatter about how much weaker the Twins system was, but when the rankings came out from various publications the Twins were generally middle of the pack, not bottom 5.
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