jmlease1

I'm on record as saying that baseball managers have less overall impact on the game than a lot of other pro sports. A lot of the impact that a manager has is behind the scenes in keeping the clubhouse together and managing all the personalities...which is something we mostly don't see and can't know for sure if he's doing a great job or not at, unless something bad breaks out and someone talks to a reporter. We haven't really seen anything like that where there have been anonymous comments in the press crapping on the manager; the closest has been the Sonny Gray stuff about wanting to pitch deeper in games...and that's been pretty overblown (IMHO) in terms of how much actual criticism of the manager it really was (perhaps by people who already had an agenda against Rocco?). The overall quality of managing in MLB is better now that it was 20 or 30 years ago, but that's also flattened out the impact of managers, I think. There's a handful in the league that are superior, showing a consistent ability to not only keep their clubhouse in order, but also manipulate their lineups to their advantage, handle the bullpens well, not make mistakes in game management, etc. There's a handful that seem to step in it often, can't get out of their own way, and aren't up to the task. Most of them fall into a muddled middle where most outsiders look at them and think they're probably fine, but will have some quirks that drive the locals batty, or become focal points for the fans when things are going perfectly, but are maybe only noticeable to people watching the team every day. Rocco lands in the middle for me. He's doing what the front office wants in terms of general strategy and approach. He seems to handle the clubhouse well, and does a better job of managing his lineup and bullpen than some other Twins managers. He's been more conservative than I'd like in some things and overly aggressive in others...but in the final analysis he's been generally fine. When his teams have talent and health, he's won. When they don't, he's not likely to manufacture it out of nothing. I don't think Rocco has done anything worth firing him; unless the front office gets swept out at the same time a lot of the stuff people find deeply offensive about Rocco as a manager will still be happening under the next guy. They're still not going to be playing a lot of small ball, they're unlikely to be stealing tons of bases (until the players turn over more), they won't be bunting a lot, and they're still going to have hitters that strike out a lot. They're still going to take out starters earlier than some people will like, and they're not going to have a 90's era style closer. They're still going to take an analytically-driven approach to baseball. So who are you going to get that will be demonstrably better than Rocco? Firing him will make some fans happy in the short term, but it will take little time for those fans to turn on the next manager for the exact same reasons, so what's the point? If healthy enough, this team should contend for the division this season and if they get in the playoffs anything could happen. (I think they're better positioned to win in the playoffs with this squad than many of their others than have struggled in the playoffs)

I'm not super worried about Rodriguez; he's coming off an injury and not everyone is Royce Lewis. The talent is great and I think he just needs the time to get back into a groove. He's also adjusting to a new level, so the slow start isn't a huge shocker. SWR was the big surprise to me. I really liked the way he was profiling and he did well in his cup of coffee in MLB so to see him struggling in AAA so far this season was not something I saw coming. He's had stretches where his control has wobbled before so hopefully he can get it back together. Salas is hard to know. He's pretty young, and sometimes it takes a while for these toolsy kids to figure it how to translate it into production. But it's a little concerning seeing such a big jump in Ks, no power, and a loss of plate discipline.

He's had some injuries, so it looks like they're trying to build him up slowly. He's very talented, but only 20, so I'm sure they're trying to make sure they do right by him and are being cautious about his development. YMMV on whether they're being too cautious? I would like to see him start going deeper into games, but the other end of the spectrum is Matt Canterino whose arm and MLB career may have been ruined by overwork at a young age at Rice (the poster child college for running up pitch counts).

Love Royce. Seems like a really great guy, love his positive energy and enthusiasm, and looking forward to seeing him show his talent and drive. He's had a really impressive rehab. It would have been totally reasonable for someone who has played as little as he has (because of injury, pandemic, and injury again) to struggle as he got back on the field, at least a little. He just refuses to accept barriers, apparently.

I'm not sure people are really saying he's improved at this point, more that he's healthy and showing his talent again. The HR/9 is a little high, but it doesn't take much to bump that number (the difference between where he is right now and his career average is literally like 2 HRs) so it's not particularly concerning for now. If he stays above 1 HR/9 all year? That will be less great. Honestly, the most important stat for Enlow is right now he's averaging 5+ innings per start. More healthy innings for this kid, please.

I'm a fan of Moran. he's always going to be a little wild at times, but that change-up is ridiculous and can bail himself out of trouble (that he usually creates for himself). He's a risky pitcher to bring in with men on base, but I have a fair amount of confidence in him to hold down any part of an opposing lineup. (I'm less inclined to think Castro has much of a future, despite him doing solid work as a stop-gap lately)

Good to see Lee have a good game since he's been scrabbling a bit at the plate. Royce Lewis is something else. Apparently long layoffs mean little for him! He's definitely putting himself on track for a call-up if and when he gets done with his rehab assignment. Enlow is looking like he's ready to reclaim his prospect status. Good for him.

I think the earlier comment might have been a "the twins offense is garbage right now and so is Brooks Lee at the plate" bit of snark.

Cossetti earned the promotion, glad to see it. Looking forward to seeing how he does against better competition. If he can keep hitting and stick at catcher, he's going to jump up on the TD prospect lists. (Unless he goes absolutely berserk as a hitter he'll never crack the national lists; he'll be considered to be too old) Did someone slip Kala'i Rosario the TD updated prospect list? he seems to be taking his exclusion personally. :P It'll be interesting to see if he can keep this up and/or get an early promotion to AA. He's doing a great job taking walks, he's making consistent contact, and the power seems to be developing nicely. Emmanuel Rodriguez may be the higher rated prospect, but Rosario is out-performing him so far at the same age. (to be fair, Rodriguez is still working his way back from a not-insignificant injury) I would have no complaints about having two 20 year-old corner OFs (one from the right and one from the left-hand side) pushing each other through the system! A little worrisome that all of the Twins infield prospects at high A are scrabbling at the plate right now (Tanner Schobel is the "star" with a .684 OPS; neither Salas nor Miller are hitting a lick. and not that he's really a prospect any longer, but Cavaco is sadly looking like a total bust again after showing a little improvement last season in Ft Myers). It's still early, but it would be nice if at least one of these guys showed they had a capable bat.

Laweryson should be higher as a relief option, IMHO. He's been pretty impressive ever since going to the AFL and looks like someone who can get guys out. He hunted Ks pretty effectively at basically every level and has gotten harder to hit...he looks like the best internal option to me to come up and get guys out in the middle innings right now. Sometimes you have to trust performance over things like velocity. I'd have to say they need to keep Balazovic, SWR, and Headrick stretched out as starting options, because injuries just happen to starters, so again, they'd have to drop lower for me. Even if Balazovic isn't in a traditional starting role, I think they need to keep him throwing more innings. Ortega is just behind Laweryson for me. He looks like a fungible reliever in a lot of ways, but he's getting it done in Saint Paul and has the experience. Laweryson, then Ortega for me before trying to flip any of the starters. And leave Enlow alone. Dude is finally healthy and getting back on track. Gotta think long-term with him and set him up to be part of next season's "shadow rotation" waiting in Saint Paul. Winder has really disappointed,

Kyle Wright finished TENTH last season for the NL Cy Young. He had a nice season, but was nowhere near contending for the Cy. he got a couple of votes (a 4th and a 5th), that's it. Doesn't really look like an ace yet.

Great to see Royce Lewis looking recovered and healthy. rehab can be a tricky thing, but he seems to have managed it very very well. Julien seems to have handled his demotion without any trouble and looks ready for call up at any time. Great to have him available. If Polanco is going to miss real time, I think he should come back up.

Joe Ryan's K/BB ratio is siiiiiiick. I love having two starters who are being floated as Cy contenders. Is it likely to happen? eh, maybe not but hopefully it's not because of regression bringing them too far back down. If Cole keeps going like this he'll be hard to beat between his excellent performance, stature in the game, NY media market, and the fact that if Gray and Ryan both keep kicking butt like this they'll potentially pull votes from each other. Gotta say, I might be ok with someone else winning because voters couldn't decide if Gray or Ryan was most worthy by the end of the year. :)

Great to see Enlow healthy and pitching to his talent. He will be back on the 40-man after this season, and I will be surprised if he doesn't finish the year at AAA. He'll fit in nicely as rotation depth for next season and I think we will see him get his first chance in MLB in 2024. Severino still makes me nervous with the Ks, but he's doing everything else right at the plate. Be very interesting to see where he lands at the end of the season.

Looking forward to this series, and hoping the team bounces back after the Blue Screwjob and a disappointing result to the series. That late start saturday is going to be a bit rough, lol. I think our starting pitching gives us a chance in any series, but I wouldn't have minded skipping past Sandoval and Ohtani.

I'll admit, it has kind of felt like the FO was trying to convince itself that they hadn't made a mistake with Pagan, but I don't have any inside information. And as a low-leverage middle reliever he's been basically acceptable this season, and available. (say what you will about Pagan, and I can say plenty, there's never a question about whether or not he can take the ball) Despite the "Manfred Man" the Twins have been in 3 games this month that have gone 11+ innings; without those, I dunno if Pagan sees enough high leverage spots to matter. I don't particularly want Pagan on this roster, and going into this season I was pretty adamant that we could do better and for exactly the amount we're paying this guy. If there were trades available to the Twins I would have taken basically any of them and signed someone else. but they didn't do that, and I think that was a mistake by this front office. But I don't know how much we actually gain by cutting Pagan right now. We're on the hook for his salary regardless. No one is going to give us anything in trade, so that's not an option. And replacements are only coming from internal options in AAA or maybe AA right now. Maybe Laweryson would be better? or Balazovic? Maybe? But the biggest benefit is probably to the fan psyche, not really on the field.

Thiebar being hurt definitely causes more problems than I might have anticipated. Sands and Winder have both been very disappointing (really thought Winder might be a weapon in the bullpen, but maybe all of his injury travails have sapped his ability too much). If Jax can find his form from last season it would make a real difference. They need one more arm to keep pagan out of high leverage situations, and they basically need to find it in-house right now. (Help for the bullpen will be available later in the season, but basically nobody is going to be moving bullpen arms right now unless you make a colossal overpay)

Please show your receipts. he's been pitching in the 7th lately (with our starters usually going 6 innings, that's when relief starts) and his later inning work has been things like pitching the 11th when the bullpen was empty or finishing off the 9th when we were down 6. 13 of his 16 appearances have been when we were losing or ahead by 4+ runs. not exactly sure how this is a Rocco failure.

Isola is doing well enough at the plate, but I'm disappointed that he hasn't caught in a month. Starting to look like he's not seen as really an option there if he's behind Banuelos on the catching depth chart, and I'm not sure he can hit enough to be a legit prospect at 1B. I thought Kala'i Rosario was showing enough to crack the top 20, and he seems to be trying to confirm my opinion, which I appreciate. :P

Well, this is why Pagan isn't a late-inning reliever. When he's wild and can't find the zone, the only way he has to get a strike is to drop a meatball over the heart of the plate. He's ok as a middle inning guy who can get 1+ innings for you of relatively low leverage work that probably needs to be yanked quickly if he's not throwing strikes, because he's liable to have that blowup inning when he gets lit up trying to throw a "get over" pitch. I don't know that it's really mental? I didn't want Pagan on this team this year because a) I didn't think he was going to be significantly better, b) the PTSD for the fanbase didn't make it worth the cost or the roster spot, and c) I thought there were plenty of veteran RH relief arms available in FA that were at least as good and had far less baggage. That opinion hasn't changed much, but cutting him because he blew the game last night doesn't really help much. he's been adequate as a middle inning guy so far. He blew last night, but before that he actually had a positive WPA. The FIP was very good, and in 11 of his 15 appearances before last night, he hadn't given up any runs. (before this west coast trip, he'd actually dropped his ERA back under 4, which was pretty good considering he had to eat a bad outing in Boston when Maeda got hurt) he is who we thought he'd be, really. The bigger issue is Alcala and Thielbar are hurt, Jax has been disappointing, and Moran is inconsistent so Pagan has been forced to work in higher leverage situations than he's really capable of. Unfortunately, not enough of the relief options from AAA have impressed (Stewart is ok, but is a little like Moran in his wildness). Winder and Sands have both disappointed, Rodriguez and De Leon look like just another guy, so that leaves Pagan doing work in situations where none of us are comfortable. Not doing more to support the bullpen is on the front office. It's probably the biggest miss this season from them really, because they could have done something for limited cost that would have shored things up. I understand why they thought they had this covered, but they've always had too much faith in Pagan's peripherals and "stuff".

I think this is right. Twins were hoping Miranda could handle 3B as a mostly every day player this season, but had contingencies in place with Farmer, Castro, and even Solano this year if necessary, with Royce Lewis as a potential option once he got healthy, and Brooks Lee coming up on the rail. Miranda stumbling a bit doesn't really change that much: Farmer has stepped in, and it looks like they're likely to go to Lewis if he continues to kick rehab in the butt...or back to Miranda if he turns his season around. Next season they'll be looking at someone from the Lewis/Miranda/Lee grouping to be the primary 3B, especially if Polanco stays or Julien is looked at a reasonable 2B option. 2025 they're going to be hoping that either Lewis or Lee have settled in at 3B, or Miranda stepped back up and seized the job. and run that forward for the next several years, until maybe Correa needs to shift down to 3B. The legion of infield prospects we're moving through the system has created a lot of depth (and it's why they were very comfortable dealing Steer)

I'm ready for adding something in to address the errors. electronic strike zone, a challenge system...let's just get it right. Clearly there are ways to do it without it slowing the game back down and the technology is there. It's not going to cost any umpiring jobs, so there's no real reason to object. Challenge system is probably fine: as Morneau was saying on the broadcast, we're really only looking at about 10-15 misses in a game, and most of those aren't going to be particularly egregious or in a situation that's very impactful. (smart) teams are going to hold their challenges for when it matters, i think. But it fixes something like Cuzzi's bad day. (Cuzzi's misses on Kirilloff were pretty bad just in absolute terms. but to get him on both sides of the plate in the same AB is pretty much inexcusable)

Maeda was the AL Cy Young runner up in 2020 and gutted through 21 starts (including a very nice July) as his elbow was unraveling. he was also excellent in his first start of the season and looking healthy in spring training. Slamming this decision is just 20/20 hindsight. (and Mahle was doing just fine for the Twins before his elbow exploded this year too) Ober did a great job last night and is absolutely a quality MLB starter. But he had an option and this kept him stretched out and ready. twins starting pitching has been fantastic this season, the decision has worked out fine.

Catcher is just so hard to fill with players that have any kind of balance, so if Crossetti can legit stick there and be an actual hitting threat I feel like you have to give some extra credit on position. I mean, the Dodgers started a guy who basically can't throw to 2nd last night. That tells you something about the dearth of catching in baseball.

The Ryan deal is the easy win: moving a 41-year DH on an expiring contract for a starting pitcher that has already had a very solid rookie season and so far has taken another step forward to be a front-line playoff caliber starter and potential all-star is a heck of a win. The Pressly deal is one that I think a lot of people come back to as a big loss, but I do understand the thought process behind the deal and it's important to note that both of the players the Twins got back in return made it to the majors in relatively short order. When the Twins moved Pressly might have been 2nd in the division, but they were 6 games under .500 and 8 games out of first. Pressly was 29 years old and while the K/9 had taken a big jump, he was still pretty hittable, so it wasn't glaringly obvious that he was going to be a shut-down reliever, especially having come off a pretty forgettable season the year before. I think it's also reasonable to say that the front office was anticipating more of a rebuild; the juiced ball Bomba Squad was a bit of a surprise. Celestino's screwed up development path (and now injury) and Alcala's injury have dinged this more than maybe it should, especially with the big bump in Pressly's salary that followed. The Mahle deal is the one that's worked out the worst, but the process behind it was pretty sound. I'd argue that the decision-making behind the Pressly deal was decent as well. The trade lists for this regime are pretty solid. I think their track record on free agents has been more problematic, where they've generally prioritized value over talent more often than not and taken too many fliers on reclamation projects.