jmlease1

The baseball fit is pretty good: platoon partner for Kirilloff, good DH fit, nice 3rd catcher to have on hand. the money and health make it less good. While the Twins should be able to afford a deal like this, they're probably not going to spend that high, especially not for a 2-year deal, because of their self-imposed payroll limitations. but I do think garver's health issues make it a gamble that they might not be too excited about: we've got several players already with health concerns (Buxton, Kirilloff, Lewis, Gordon, Miranda, Polanco, and even Correa), so adding another just increases the odds against healthy seasons. I think this would be a move that might happen if we were maintaining payroll closer to even with 2023, but the predicted decline of $20-30M makes it exceptionally unlikely, even if we are able to drop payroll with a Polanco/Vazquez/Kepler/Farmer deal of some kind.

It's definitely got some recentcy bias in picking 2023. breaking a playoff drought doesn't make you better; it makes you luckier than some of the other teams. that said...there are a lot of things going for the 2023 Twins: they're a deep team, and a balanced one. there's a lot of quality all over the place, and not a lot of true weaknesses. You have quality starting pitching with top-end guys (Lopez was excellent and Gray deservedly was Cy Young runner up. Maybe they don't jump above Sweet Music in '87, but...over the '87 version of Bert?). The bullpen had real weapons, including a closer that would slot in fine on any championship team. A deep and dangerous lineup with top-end talent and very few holes. They're not truly a top 10 squad in Twins history...but it's also a little boring to pick 4 slight variations of the same 6 teams from Killer's run.

how many serious knee injuries has Chourio had?

I would absolutely explore it. Royce is the kind of player you want in your franchise: high-level talent on the field, magnetic personality and generator of excitement and positivity off the field. There's some risk because of his injury history, but that's what makes it doable for the player. While I'm sure the supremely confident Royce Lewis (amazing how he can be this way without sounding like an arrogant ass) would be comfortable betting on himself, I also think he might be interested in locking in generational wealth for himself and his family. he also seems like the kind of player that would rather know where he's going to be playing and not have any contract nonsense hanging over his head. That said: I know I'm not entirely rational when it comes to Royce Lewis. I just love the dude.

I'll take that bet. Unless the motor city kitties add a significant piece or two to their lineup they're still also-rans. They might pass Cleveland (who are cutting payroll too and lost an excellent manager), and will probably be a little bit better, but their top prospects haven't really developed and that lineup scares me not. Their record against the Twins last season doesn't mean much; that's just noise in the context of a 162 game season.

Seniority within the division doesn't mean much because a) we overrate the impact of managers in baseball, b) seniority has a lot more to do with the talent level of the roster (bad teams churn managers, good teams tend to have more stability), and c) who cares if a manager has the most time in-division, when divisions mean less than they have? Hinch is a good manager, but his involvement (or refusal to get involved) in the sign-stealing scam from the Astros is a black mark on his record and is going to come up in tandem with his world series championship, deservedly. He's been fine in Detroit, but hardly a world-beater...and a lot of that has to do with the deficiencies in the roster. They were decent last season and might be a real competitor this season, but we'll see. Their lineup still doesn't scare me, and we'll see if their pitching can hold up for a full season. Having MLB experience as a manager likely makes some difference. You've hopefully established a bit of an identity, you're less surprised by anything, and there's hopefully a comfort levels that's been built. But time in division says a lot more about the club than the manager. Baldelli is fine. He's never going to satisfy people that don't like modern analytics and theories of baseball (the constant mocking of "spreadsheets" and other nonsense shows that) and he's going to be the focus of that hatred at all times. But generally makes reasonable decisions, his lineup construction is fine, he handles his clubhouse well be all accounts, and there's really no evidence that players do anything other than play hard for him. He's aggressive about using his bench (YMMV on how good that is, but I don't hate it), and other than needing to have an 8th reliever on-hand even if they don't get used handles the bullpen fairly well. (I appreciate his willingness to deploy his best relievers to shut down the other team's best hitter late in a game regardless of whether it's the 7th, 8th or 9th, rather than always play a classic "closer")

I think you have to discount the secondary and trinary impacts of trades like this rather than just tot up the bWAR and go "holy cow, the team really blew it there!". It's one thing to look at the direct returns on a deal, but a different ballgame to look at the value accrued from the players that were traded again; isn't that on the other teams that were in on the deal? An assessment like this shows how well the Rays front office was functioning and how well that spotted talent in other team's farm systems and leveraged their assets to get those players. But you can't hang any blame on the Twins for Pittsburgh making a trade to acquire Chris Archer and sending the Rays quality prospects in exchange that quickly outstripped Archer's value. The original deal has some interesting parts and other questions that need to be answered, like how much influence did Ron Gardenhire have over personnel decisions in that off-season and during the Bill Smith years? It's also notable that Jason Bartlett had one of the more notable "fluke years" in recent baseball history for TB in 2009, hitting far far better than he ever had in his MLB career, and better than he ever would again and it wasn't really close. Please tell me who could have seen that #*%$ coming? But I don't think this deal haunts the Twins any longer. Bad trade at the time, but also part of quite a few bad decisions that all piled up together for a stretch where we couldn't get our infield right and the rotation wasn't good enough. Dealing Bartlett was a bad decision because we didn't have a proper SS ready to step in, but acted like we did (I remember back then believing that Gardy didn't care for Bartlett that much). Harris almost immediately got dropped in the pecking order because Gardy seemed to prefer Punto there. Garza was a bad decision because we didn't have enough pitching, even if he didn't like being with the Twins or their coaches.

The problem is the in-house replacement aren't all that plentiful; the most likely options are: Gordon, who had a dreadful year along with a major injury. Larnach, who hasn't shown he can adjust to MLB pitching once they make their first adjustment to him. After that it's....Martin? Who has never played a game in MLB, but still might be needed to backup CF. Looking at the big picture is correct, and what I see is that the Twins are a playoff team in 2024, but don't have a lot of corner OF depth that's close in the system. The best prospects to fill those roles are in AA or A ball and are realistically another year away. (Rodriguez, Rosario, and Jenkins currently). Going into last season it was easier to look at moving on from Kepler because Gordon was coming off a good season, Larnach had promise, and Wallner was knocking at the door and the team had signed Gallo (whom we didn't know would be a zero after a hot month). If we move on from Kepler, we'll need some reinforcements otherwise we're blowing a hole in what right now looks like a strong lineup. Right now Kepler would probably be hitting 6th or 8th in the lineup, which is exciting. not interested in screwing that up unless it's part of a deal that improves the rotation. (My proposed batting order, as of today: Julien, Polanco, Correa, Wallner, Buxton, Kirilloff, Lewis, Kepler, Jeffers. That's a tough one to navigate!)

Miranda didn't work out last year at 3B because he got hurt and couldn't hit or throw with that bum shoulder. You can't predict injury. Julien had a terrific season (better than the 2022 year from Miranda that had many of us enthusiastic about his future) and finished strong after a wobble in August, while showing real improvement in the field. the only way you can really say they're going to have similar results is if you know Julien is going to get hurt. Are you predicting injury for Ed Julien?

Lee and Martin are close, but ideally they're guys that start in AAA and are the first wave of replacements for the inevitable injury bug dings some guys and can get their feet wet filling in for a few weeks to show whether they can Pipp someone. But neither are 1B, which is where Kirilloff is going to be locked in (and after a minor cleanup procedure in his shoulder and no wrist problems for the first time in several years...I have more faith in Kirilloff than you) Lewis is not moving to the OF. period. It's doesn't matter how many people think it's a good idea on the message boards, it is not going to happen. I doubt it would happen even if Buxton, Gordon, Castro, and Martin all got hurt. They are committed to him in the infield and are not sliding him into the OF. Everyone needs to move on from this, because it is never going to happen. Never.

Except in 2023 the plan was to start Kirilloff at 1B and Gallo in LF, but Kirilloff took longer to recover from his unusual wrist surgery than they had hoped. Now, that may have been a different sort of malpractice (signing Gallo for $11M) but at the time it wasn't crazy to have Larnach in the OF and Gallo at 1B, with Wallner pushing in AAA. The malpractice would be after an unimpressive season from Larnach and no one knocking on the door in AAA relying on internal depth to step in by trading Kepler. We don't have a corner OF in AAA knocking on the door going into this season; the next wave of OF in the system are in AA or lower (Rodriguez, Rosario, Jenkins, etc) The situations are different, which is why it makes more sense to keep Kepler unless he's needed to be part of a significant trade for pitching. he's not untouchable to me if a team wants him as a real piece in a deal for a starter, but I'm not dealing him for prospects or searching out someone to drop his contract on.

He really wasn't, though. They'd been fairly close in total value (Eddie a more consistent hitter, Kepler a much better defender) and had fairly similar value in 2020. Since the Twins non-tendered Rosario, Kepler (despite his flaws and struggles at the plate) has easily been the better player (and cheaper). but that's also the sort of player that's going to be out there if Kepler gets dealt and the Twins are looking for an OF on a 1-year deal. Rosario was ok last season but not an average starter. Maybe there's some juice left there...but also might be a replacement level guy (or worse) at 32.

He's the sort of player that's worth taking a flyer on to see if you can unlock something through coaching/refinement. he's not the sort of player that's worth spending trade capital on. No offense to the Varland family or anything, but Gus is in the throw-in territory for a bigger trade. Twins are going to need someone to fill that middle relief role where they can make 50-60 appearances and throw 60-70 innings. Is Gus Varland better than Balazovic, Sands, or Winder? That's where we're looking. Bullpen right now looks like: Duran, Thielbar, Jax, Stewart, Alcala, Balazovic, Funderburk, and Winder. I think the Twins will try to find another guy by bringing in someone to compete for one of those middle relief roles with Balazovic and Winder (If Alcala is healthy, he's going to get a shot and Funderburk showed enough last season to be in the bullpen as a second lefty). I'd love for there to be one more righty in the 'pen that is more than a middle/long relief guy from day one to keep Stewart and Jax (especially Jax) from getting overworked, but it's also not where I would put significant resources.

It's an interesting question because Kepler has (deservedly) incurred the wrath of a lot of Twins fans in recent years for his struggles at the plate, but had such a strong second half of the season that he had real trade value again but also looks like an important cog for the twins lineup. I was getting close to the DFA period with him last season when he had a dreadful May, got hurt, and when he came back he stunk again but finally decided "DFA Gallo first, you need to keep one of them for now". Then Maxie got hot, finding his stroke at the end of June/early July and keeping it going through the end of the year. I probably wouldn't be looking to trade him, but he's hardly untouchable. The contract is still reasonable and there's no one really hammering down the door in the OF...yet. (Martin is the closest to me and there's a real chance he's not ready for an every day role) I'd be a lot more interested in having this conversation about moving on from Kepler in a year after Emmanuel Rodriguez has terrorized AA and maybe AAA, Kala'i Rosario is closer, Walker Jenkins has gotten out of A-ball, etc. Jettisoning Kepler right now likely puts Nick Gordon in left, Wallner in right, and Martin as the 4th OF to backup/cover for Buxton. That COULD work...but Gordon is coming off such a rough year that it's hard to feel great about it. You just can't hand Larnach a starting job right now; that's malpractice for a playoff team, and I say that as someone who has been a fan of Larnach. The Gallo experience shows the risk of the retread bin, but there are going to be guys out there you can get on a 1 year $8M deal. but the only real reason to trade Kepler is if that's how you get a deal done for starting pitching that improves the top end of the team. I think Kepler is going to have a solid season, probably a bit less productive than last year but also more consistent. (I'm also convinced that if he gets hurt and ends up on the IL for more than a few days, he's going to get sent out on a rehab assignment whether he wants to or not this time).

Lugo had a nice season last year, but 3 year deals for 34 year-old pitchers who have never thrown 150 innings in a season in their whole professional careers get a little wobbly. (yes, I'm aware that Lugo got asked to relieve for the Mets) I can understand why the Royals made the move; they needed starting pitching like the twins did 2 years ago and desperation usually means overpaying or struggling. Love the Mauer memory. Real shame concussions robbed us of some much from Joe's career, but even with that lingering over him he gave us so many grand moments.

I'm still a big believer in Joe Ryan; his biggest hiccup this season was trying to play through an injury and hiding it from the training staff. That's a mistake, but it comes from a good place. I wouldn't have a problem with him starting a playoff game, and I think his short stint in the playoff game had more to do with it being an elimination game where there was no reason not to empty out all the resources than the team losing faith in him. Ober is a quality starter as well; no fear there either, though it would help if the team doesn't think he needs a break to keep him going through the season. (Obviously, there's no question on Pablo Lopez!) Paddack is a biggest question mark to me than either Ober or Ryan: we don't know how he'll transition back to starting, and we don't know if he's got a 3rd pitch to keep people from keying on his fastball or sitting on the change.

I think what's interesting about Ohtani's deal is that there's no interest. Quite a few major player deals have deferrals built into them (usually for tax purposes on the player side), but usually there's at least some form of interest attached, and there's apparently none of that here. It's a very clever deal that works fine for a player of Ohtani's stature who has massive off-field income streams, but would be much less viable for other players. But the level of deferred money is a little concerning for cap circumvention and what it does to maximize the disproportionate financial power of certain markets. there's no question this is going to come up in the next CBA, and it'll be a complicated one for baseball on all sides. The players union likes this because incentivizing big markets to spend and circumvent the cap is important to raising the overall levels of player salaries. but at the same time, there's only so much you can do to hammer the mid-to-small markets and make them unimpactful in free agency, especially with the collapse of regional cable networks. That hurts more players overall, even if the total economic impact might not be as much. basically, the union is going to be looking at a fight between the superstars and the middle-class player again for what they need and value. MLB wants the deferrals reduced or eliminated to protect owners from themselves, but also because they want teams to be able to be sold with a minimum of impact, which is going to happen with more consistency with fewer family/generational ownerships in the offing. they really don't want a team loading up to win with multiple deferred comp deals, spiking the value of the franchise for a sale, and handing the next owner 10-20 years of contract debt with no value and having to sort that mess out too. Plus, they have real concerns about the competitive value tax thresholds: the less impactful they are, the harder it will be to keep anything moving with a financial floor. revenue-sharing is a real issue in baseball again, and the collapse of the regional sports networks and the solid cable revenues they generated is a significant problem for small to mid-market teams. For as much as the playoff format makes it harder for a big spender to just buy their way to a title, there's also a few too many no-hope teams. messy, very messy.

Until any off-season moves happen, this projection looks about right. The lineup could be the strength of this team in 2024, but it all depends on health for them. the talent is there, but how healthy will Buxton, Correa, Lewis, Kirilloff, Polanco, and Jeffers be? (assuming Polanco stays of course) One of the bigger question marks is Gordon: he was quite effective in 2022, but 2023 was a totally lost season. tough to count on him, but at the same time, his role would likely be backup OF/DH on this roster. I'm not expecting significant changes in the bullpen; maybe they'll add a veteran arm on the cheap, but I'm generally adverse to spending significant money on anything other than retaining your top bullpen guys anyways. I still like Alcala, and if he's healthy and throwing well again I think he could add a lot. the Balazovic/Sands/Winder spots...these are guys with talent that haven't translated. I hope they're spending time at driveline or the equivalent trying to refine something and and improve. I feel confident the FO will make a move to add a starter and push Varland back to AAA; they know they need to have depth.

I love Polo, been a great player for us and a heck of a teammate. But he's the most logical player to move in a trade: very reasonable contract with 2 years of control, proven MLB player, plays a position the Twins have good depth at, will have real value in a deal. I would be hesitant to move him for prospects, however, unless they have another deal in place to move prospects for pitching. Because that's what they need to be looking at acquiring here: starting pitching. Moving Polanco also might mean they could keep Farmer, who would give them a little more insurance at SS, his RH bat is a good compliment to Julien if you need to give him a break against lefties.

I think they do need to replace these innings from Pagan, and his health and ability to pitch frequently was definitely an asset last season. I'm fairly confident in their ability to find middle innings internally from the 40-man without spending much on one of those fungible relievers that always seem to get 1-2 year deals at $6-8M and then disappoint because they simply aren't consistent enough in the later innings. I think the Twins are right not to allocate significant budget on free agent relievers and on relatively average pitchers. It's nice to have the guy with the rubber arm who can make 70 appearances in the middle innings and do the job, but it's also a lot easier to churn through a few guys early in the season until you find one or two of them to handle the load. Alcala and Balazovic seem like reasonable choices to start the year to me.

I think there's a excellent chance for Correa to have a big rebound at the plate in 2024. A foot injury like that can really sap a player's power, and I think it's very likely that he'll be driving the ball better, getting it in the air more consistently, and hitting into fewer DPs. He's had a few tough years at the plate, but every one of them has been marked by injury (or the weird pandemic season), so we'll see if he's healthy. Sure looked it in the post-season! A healthy season from Correa will be a very productive one at the plate, I'm convinced of that. The off-season should be good for his bum foot, and an average season at the plate for him would make a big difference for the Twins. I feel pretty confident in the offense for the Twins right now: a return to health for Correa, full seasons from Julien, Lewis, and Wallner are all a good start. That's without expecting significant contributions from Buxton. I think the offense could be a real strength in 2024.

I think that aspect to MLB roster management is making it much harder to take a position player in the Rule 5. Even with pitchers it's hard because the expectation is that you are using your entire 26-man roster the whole season and not carry players than don't play much by design. Now, I do think teams mis-use that 13th pitching slot; the impact of a reliever who only throws once every ten days is pretty limited, but good luck changing the mid-set of teams who are trying to hedge against worst-case scenarios at all times...

It's certainly less meaningful. Clubs realize that it's more difficult to hold a player on the 26-man all season, especially if they're not ready to contribute in some way, with the way injuries stack up and constant need for more pitchers in today's game. It could still be a useful tool for rebuilding clubs, but going into a season with the expanded playoffs there are fewer teams that are going into a season with no hope as well. I'm a little surprised someone didn't take a flyer on Kiersey, but minor league evaluators are getting better, especially when a guy has 5 seasons of minor league experience. Not mad about keeping him around as CF insurance, but at the same he wouldn't have been a major loss.

I think the Twins would like to keep Keirsey as a depth option in CF in AAA, but probably don't see him being able to hit much in MLB and not consistently. The assessment looks right to me, so I don't think the team will regret losing him very much. I would gamble on him in the Rule 5 if I were a bad team with needs in the OF. And if you're a bad team, you probably have needs in the OF. The risk-reward for a rebuilding team is pretty good. You know that Keirsey can handle things defensively so there's an acceptable floor while you figure out if he can hit at all in MLB, and if he can't what have you lost? But that also means there's only a small slate of teams that are going to pick him, or will have the capacity to keep him on a roster all season. So it makes sense to expose him.

KLaw's piece really was weird. He's always been high on Balazovic and was the first national guy to highlight him as a prospect to watch, so it's understandable that he's holding a torch for him, but the mention suggested he hadn't really been paying attention to what had been going on with him recently. Missing Paddack was equally odd: even if Law doesn't think he's a viable rotation option coming off TJ and with his track record, he's obviously in the mix for the Twins and shown improved stuff in his relief appearances that would make him intriguing to most. Instead of just stating "hey, I don't think this guy can be a quality starter and here's why" when challenged in the comments, he got pretty nasty, insulting both the commenters and the Twins front office...which has earned better. Paddack seems like a very reasonable 5th starter for most teams; he's got real upside if his pitch mix has developed (Law is correct that he hadn't consistently shown a 3rd pitch) but might have an innings limitation based on his surgery. But as a 5th starter who might get skipped a couple of times to keep him fresh? Seems reasonable.