jmlease1

sigh. duplicate! I do think the best and most likely options to protect against Kirilloff not being ready to start the season are internal ones.

Not that Eddie Rosario plays 1B, or anything, but since leaving the Twins he's accumulated 0.6 bWAR over three seasons while making $26M. While Larnach hasn't managed to solidify his place in MLB, he's still generated 2.0 bWAR in MLB for the Twins over the same time period, while making less than 1/10th of the salary and playing 40% less. Kirilloff's injuries have really held him back from being a significant contributor, but he's been roughly as valuable as Eddie Rosario (Kirilloff had 0.7 bWAR) over this same 3-year stretch, while making the same kind of money as Larnach. So let's review: the Twins got 4 times more value out of Larnach and Kirilloff over the last 3 years (combined they played roughly the same number of games as Rosario) while saving $20M in payroll (to date). And now we have room on the roster for Matt Wallner, who played roughly half a season and was more productive (2.2 bWAR) than Rosario has been in any season since 2018, and more productive in half a season that Rosario has been in the last 3 combined seasons. So yes, there's been adequate return: we have more than replaced Rosario's production. What we haven't gotten yet is superior performance from Larnach or Kirilloff, but there's still time and if Kirilloff gets healthy it's quite likely that he surpasses Rosario's production next season. But hey, I would expect Atlanta to decline the club option on Eddie for 2024, so he'll be available.

There's only so many people that get to be "the guy" for a franchise and be the ultimate decision-maker and designer (non-owner category), and it would also come with a pretty healthy pay bump. I could see Levine taking it if offered. Those chances don't come around that often, and I suspect he would like the opportunity. Don't really want to see him go, I think he's been an important part of the success the Twins have had since he came with Falvey, but good organizations don't object to someone getting a promotion, and it's a good sign for your organizational culture if other organizations want your people to come work for them in more senior positions. Worry when people leave for laterals or downgrades: then you know things have gone sideways...

I think Miranda will get another opportunity with the Twins, and should if he comes back from the shoulder injury. He should practice reps at 1B and 3B as soon as he's cleared for drills, because he looks like a fine option to spell Kirilloff with his RH bat, or even jump on the job if Kirilloff isn't ready to start the season (possibly platooning with Julien at 1B). Maybe Brooks Lee is ready to be the first infielder up if there's an injury next season, but Miranda has the hit tool to make it a race. Royce missed time even after returning from the 2nd ACL tear, so Miranda should be ready to go, and look for his opportunity. I think if everyone is mostly healthy to start the season, Miranda starts in AAA, but he will get a chance. If he's hitting in AAA like he did before, then he'll either force his way back up to MLB or be one very nice trade chip. i haven't forgotten about Jose Miranda and neither has the Twins organization.

yes, but every team "needs" an MVP-caliber LF. I mean, what are we talking about here? the choice can't be between what we currently have and getting an MVP candidate. No front office can realistically produce that.

I think some of it depends on how long into the season the twins think Kirilloff's recovery might go. (and this is presuming already that he won't be ready in spring training, which we're way too early to actually know) I suspect that if the Twins are sure that Kirilloff is going to miss time well into May or longer, they'll make an attempt at a veteran signing on the cheap (like they did with Solano this year) to provide insurance and not spend their depth at the start of the season. That's not unreasonable, and it worked out fairly well with Solano who got on base and showed good contact skills, even if there was little pop left in his bat and he wasn't particularly good defensively. I do think this FO likes to keep the floor high and I agree with the methodology of giving as few ABs to bad players as possible. But unless the recovery for Kirilloff is going to be really lengthy (i.e., extending well into the summer), I think the better choice is to look internally. There's some assumption of risk there, but if you have Julien prepare in the off-season to play at 1B (while still working at 2B) and do the same with Miranda (while still having him work at 3B) and Severino...I think there are enough options in-house to cover things. Heck Chris Williams could come back on a minor-league deal (giving him an extra $100K probably keeps him in the organization and doesn't break the bank one bit) and be an option. And frankly, I think I'd rather go this way even if Kirilloff's recovery is going to go well into the season. Why? because I do think this FO is a bit prone to the sunk-cost fallacy when it comes to veteran players. (most teams are, so I'm not bagging on them that much for it) Look at how Gallo managed to stick on the roster for the full year. What I don't want to see is them taking a flyer on a vet who turns out to be washed up, but sticks around long past the sell date because there's no need for the roster spot yet, and they keep hoping he'll figure it out, blah blah blah regressioncakes. I'd rather give the chances on the younger guys. Miranda has shown flashes of serious talent. Julien deserves to play every day. Severino has been hitting the snot out of the ball in the minors and could be an interesting hitting talent (gotta love switch-hitters on the bench!).

As noted above, for the 2023 hitters leaderboard at BP, they have Vazquez 8th for the Twins with a 0.8 WARP and Jeffers 12th with a 0.5. Which is relevant in talking about where PECOTA landed for their predictions on Twins players; if their final WARP calculations are so out of whack from where fWAR and bWAR landed those two players, it makes me question their metrics period. Maybe the punishment for Jeffers taking some ABs at DH is more significant than I thought? But Vazquez had a staggeringly bad year at the plate and Jeffers was excellent. I haven't seen any defensive metrics that put Jeffers so much further below Vazquez as to make up that difference, let alone exceed it.

The fact that Petty reached AA at age 20 is impressive development. 18 starts is close to a full season's worth (20-22 is a full mix for a guy who doesn't miss time for injury or being skipped out of caution) His lack of innings is worrisome much in the same way some of us are concerned about Marco Raya for the Twins. Petty was always talented, which is why the Twins drafted him in the first place, but he's still another 2 years away from entering an MLB rotation for more than a cup of coffee (it seems likely that he'll spend next season in AA and 2025 in AAA pushing for an chance in MLB, if he stays healthy and doesn't have any developmental bumps). What's especially interesting about Petty is how few HRs he's given up. If he can maintain a HR/9 rate under 1, then I'll be very impressed. (he gave up zero dingers in 2023! I'm sure that's a bit of a fluke, but so far he's been terrific at keeping the ball in the park. It will be interesting to see if he can continue that as his innings increase) Gray fit the Twins window better and was more of a sure thing. The Reds were in rebuild mode and could afford to wait and absorb the risk. The fact that the QO was an opportunity for the Twins makes this a big win on the trade regardless of what Petty does because of the additional value it brings in from sources outside of the Reds. Clever way to make a win-now move while still getting future investment.

I'll admit to not understanding how Jeffers still finished below Vazquez in BP's WARP.

Pitcher wins don't tell you very much about how good of a starter they actually were. Are you suggesting Sonny Gray is likely for TJ? Why? His injury issues over the years haven't shown elbow problems. Good luck signing anyone of Gray's caliber that is 25-26 for a 2-3 year contract!

I feel like "Finding a front-line starter to replace Sonny Gray" and "Gamble on another high-upside starting pitcher" are an either/or proposition for this team...unless you are willing to consider Chris Paddack as an option to fill one of these roles. I just don't see the Twins adding more than one starting pitcher with the rotation currently looking like Lopez, Paddack, Ryan, Ober, and Varland. I think it's very possible (even likely) that they will look to add a veteran to compete for that last starting spot, but seems much less likely that they'll add 2 (unless they convince Varland that his future is in the bullpen). It's hard to know exactly how good Paddack will be as a starter next year but he was solid pre-injury for the Twins and his stuff looked excellent in his bullpen stints this fall and with a healthy offseason to prepare he should be ready form Day 1. Lopez and Ryan are locks, and Ober should be as well. Ober was really good and showed it's possible for him to stay healthy. I'm more interested in looking for internal options to shore up 1B and provide insurance for Kirilloff, unless they get an early indicator that he won't be ready for spring training. Miranda seems to be an obvious fit with his RH bat, but I would also be telling Severino to work on his 1B skills in the offseason (Julien too). Making sure they manage CF effectively will be key. They were smart last season bringing in Michael A. Taylor to ensure they had a quality fielder regardless of Buck's health. I feel like the roster is tighter now, but Castro's emergence as an effective defender basically anywhere but catcher certainly helps, and Austin Martin might be ready to step in as well. If they bring back someone like Taylor, they probably need to move an infielder? (Farmer or Polanco seems the most likely choice; both have real value as trade candidates, but also play in areas where we have depth. Julien can slot in at 2B for Polanco just fine, and we'd still have Lee, Martin, and even Miranda as depth options to come up to deal with injuries; Farmer is a backup for us who could start for other teams and I think the front office would be comfortable with Castro, Lewis, or maybe even Lee backing up SS and we have options to support 2B and 3B as well.) I'm not sure what the right choice is, and suspect the twins won't know either until December when they get a better feel for where Buxton's knee is.

Really rough for Twins hitters. I don't want to read too much into this: while we've seen some players use the AFL as a springboard to bigger things, other players have gone down there and done little but still kept right along on their prospect course. But it's still disappointing to see really none of the hitters doing well.

And now the Astros are getting handled by the Rangers. Astros are getting no production from 2B, SS, C, CF, and RF; have no bench, and now that Valdez has been found out they need Urquidy to dominate again or they're going to be down to one starter they can trust. reality is, the Astros got a massive performance from Alvarez (who continues to destroy everyone) and had a few bursts from other parts of their lineup (Abreu, Altuve, etc) to squeak by the Twins. Regarding Farmer: it's going to be interesting to see what the Twins do there. He's been a gamer for them, hits lefties well, and can slide into a lot of positions well defensively. Moving him would open up opportunity on the roster, but he was also a solid veteran presence and the preferred backup to Correa. I guess it would really come down to what kind of value you could get for him; I doubt I'd want to move him for an A-ball reliever and that kind of return would suggest a salary dump that would be...disappointing. The Twins depth in the infield with Correa, Polanco, Julien, Lewis, Castro, Kirilloff, Miranda, Lee, and Martin does give them some room to use Farmer as a trade chip.

I really don't get the people who are definitively stating that the Twins have to move on from Buxton. I assume they're saying it because they think he's damaged goods and will never play a full season or close to it again. So...just exactly how are they supposed to move on from his guaranteed contract? Do you really expect them to just eat $15M a year for the next however many seasons? If you're arguing they're supposed to trade him...until he shows he's healthy, other teams probably aren't interested in his contract, so not only are you not getting anything in return right now, in fact you're probably having to take money back or pay off some it ongoing. Alternatively, if there's a real trade market, then other teams (who would have to have him do a medical to complete a deal) would have to think he's going to be able to play. This isn't fantasy baseball. "Just move on from this guy" doesn't really work when you have someone signed to a substantial long-term deal. But again, with the people pushing this narrative there is this whiff of contempt for Buxton's injuries coming off the comments, as if he's morally culpable for getting hurt that I find very strange and more than a little toxic.

This. I generally think Rocco is fine as a manager. But I've also felt that baseball managers are frequently overrated for their actual impact on a team. (at least from an in-game, tactical sense) There's a handful that are superior, and a larger handful that aren't very good, but most of them fall into the middle where if their players are good, they look good. I do think one of the areas a manager has the biggest impact is in the clubhouse, and that's the area that's easily the most difficult for fans to evaluate, at least until things go south and the leaks start a-flying (by then, the deal is usually done, I'd say). Right now, Rocco by all appearances has the support of both the front-office and his players, with good professional relationships. That's a good thing, and it stayed that way even during the prior two disappointing seasons, which is often when the cracks appear. I'd say he's ranged from average to above-average in his time with the Twins. Moving on from him probably accomplishes little.

Cutting down on the Ks is the easiest and most simplistic answer. Getting more consistency in the team's offense will likely take more than that, but subtracting Joey Gallo from the lineup probably won't hurt. Better health would go a long ways: a healthier Buxton & Correa are both likely to hit for higher averages next season, even if both are still likely to have a big chunk of strikeouts as part of their stat lines. More time from Polanco & Lewis will step the averages up as well. Jeffers had an excellent season, but there's also a real likelihood of regression on his part (that BABIP suggests he got a little lucky in addition to his good work). He could be a contender to actually K more. Replacing Michael A. Taylor with Austin Martin could make an impact as well; Martin is definitely a higher contact hitter and less K-prone, but presuming he'll do well in his first tastes of MLB might be putting the cart before the horse. Despite all the Ks, the Twins still finished the season 10th in MLB in OPS+. The team did fairly well in baserunning last season, but has room to grow with Lewis & Julien being on the team from Day One and also getting more opportunities, along with better health from someone like Buxton. More stolen bases and taking some extra bases while still maintaining their quality success rates will also help keep runs flowing next season. Julien has shown real ability to swipe a bag in the past, and Royce certainly has the wheels for it. A little more focus on situational hitting, a little better health, running a bit more, no more Gallo...the Twins will likely still K more than some folks find acceptable, but they should also do a little better overall offensively. they were pretty strong in the second half of the season and no one that's expected to be a significant offensive contributor returning should be looking at immediate age-related regression/fall-off.

It's a pretty good and fair list of questions so far. I assume in part 2 there will be some things about the rotation and the bullpen (as there almost always will be). I tend not to worry about the concept of too many guys for some positions, like the Twins potentially have for the infield. These things do tend to sort themselves out in time, either through injury or ineffectiveness...or someone seizing the day and taking a position over through superior play. And while I'm as big a fan of Brooks Lee as anyone, he did not exactly crush AAA as a hitter, he's barely more than a full season in the minors as a pro player, and it would hardly be a sin if he starts next season in AAA with Royce Lewis starting at 3B in MLB. I tend to think Bonnes is right that there won't be a big RH bat added to this squad, for all the reasons stated...but I do think the team also still likes Miranda and I'm also interested in how Severino might fit into this equation as well (he's a switch hitter but looked very solid hitting from the right side this season). I suspect Severino's future is at 1B and while I don't expect him to start the season with the Twins, I do think he's got interesting upside as a hitter and will be good depth in AAA.

I'm very much hoping that this addresses the knee issue and that Buxton will be able to come into training camp fully healthy and ready to go. Regardless, I think the team will be careful to make sure he gets regular rest and DHs to try to make sure he gets through the season healthy and ready to go when the playoffs start, assuming the team is back in contention again (as they should be considering their talent level and their competition in the division). I think what bothers me the most about some of the Buxton commentary is how many people seem to treat his injury issues as if it's a personal and moral failing. As if by being a highly paid player they should now be immune to injury and if they get hurt than it's "eff that jerk". (The Mauer comparison is probably apt in that we saw similar scorn heaped upon Joe for his injuries, as if he wanted to get hurt or something.) If there's one thing I'm pretty certain of, it's that Byron Buxton ain't dogging it. If anything his desire to play and try to help the team probably leads to him not going on the IL soon enough. (Much like Sonny Gray will always say he can go another inning, Buxton would probably always say "yeah, I can play" if asked. "I'll be ready to go tomorrow, I'm sure of it!" lol) That's commendable, but not always helpful. The Twins have to prepare for next season to have backup options in place if Buxton's knee doesn't respond like we hope. Maybe that's bringing back Michael A. Taylor, maybe that's trusting in Austin Martin, or maybe it's finding a way to keep Nick Gordon or an Andrew Stevenson type around in the organization. But there's no question in my mind that the Twins are a better team with Byron Buxton playing, and I hope he can patrol CF next season, slam some HRs, and terrify the occasional OF into screwing up a relay because he flew out of the batter's box at Warp Factor 9.

It was an intelligently constructed roster overall, and addressed the biggest weaknesses from the 2022 Twins: depth and starting pitching. It wasn't near perfect: Gallo was a real miss (one great month doesn't make the next 4 worth it), they didn't shore up the bullpen early enough, and the Buxton DH experiment was problematic as the season went on. They also carried a 13th pitcher too often that didn't get used and limited their own options. But overall it was a good job of roster construction. They clearly prioritized depth and flexibility, and it is interesting that it was a cohesive team that seemed to like each other and the manager and didn't have any of those conflicts and blowups. YMMV on how much that matters, but it does seem to impact a team in baseball with the really long grind of the season. A couple of depth moves they made really worked out that seemed a bit questionable at the time: Solano & Castro. It wasn't clear they needed Solano and it did keep Julien from being on the roster from the jump, but Solano had a solid season and his presence meant that when the injuries were piling up (again) they had a quality veteran bat who could make consistent contact stepping in. Castro was a revelation; his positional flexibility was outstanding and while he's not a plus hitter, he's good enough (ended the season slightly above average) and his baserunning is a real plus. He also turned out to be average to above average defensively at pretty much every position he played. They're also pretty well positioned for 2024, which is a plus mark for this season's roster construction as well: even with the potential losses of several players through free agency, we're not looking at gaping holes anywhere, and sustainable success was also a stated goal of this front office.

Tough break for Kirilloff. Every time it looks like he's taking a step forward something else gets him. I was so happy that it looked like they had finally solved his wrist issue, so it's a bummer to have a shoulder problem take him down again. I still believe in his bat and was really hoping to see him as the starting 1B from Day 1 next year. The good thing for the Twins is they should have options. Seems increasingly likely that Polanco is back next year and Julien gets the shift over to 1B (give Julien a whole offseason to prepare for 1B duty and I expect he'll do fine). Miranda could be an option if he's healthy and his RH bat could protect Julien from too many tough matchups against LHP. Depth was hugely important to the 2023 Twins and I think they will be looking to match that again next season. It will be interesting to see how much of that comes from within or if they look for reinforcements in free agency. (I have zero fear that Gallo will be back.)

Kirk Gibson would like a word. :P An argument can be made the MAT and Byron Buxton are pretty much equal, but I don't think it's a very good one, and certainly not a good enough one to unequivocally call the move "stupidity". the only way to make them equal as hitters is to ignore everything except this season. Where during the grind of a long season and battling injuries, Byron Buxton had one of his worst seasons as a pro...but notably was excellent out the gate before trying to grind through it eventually made him unplayable for full games. This season was Michael A. Taylor's 2nd best in his whole career as a hitter, and it ended up being roughly comparable to one of Buxton's worst. Buxton has a career OPS+ of 106, MAT is at 83. Prior to this season Buxton had 4 straight seasons with an OPS+ of 115 or better. MAT has never had an OPS+ over 105. he's only been over 100 (league average) once. Maybe on Oct 11th MAT was a better hitter than Byron Buxton because he'd been facing live, opposing MLB pitching for the past several weeks, but during the playoffs he was 2-13 with 5 Ks and no BBs, no XBHs, and hit into a DP. He struggled at the plate. based on pure talent level and sheer ability to hit a baseball...not a bad case to give Buxton a shot, and it lit up the stadium. It didn't work out, but there's little evidence MAT would have done better.

I never need to hear AJ Pierzynski call him "Wain-o" in the booth ever again.

It was a fun team to watch this season. Never felt like they didn't have a chance going into any game the whole year, which is definitely a new feeling. If there's disappointment, it's because they increased expectations through their own performance. It's because after the Pablo Lopez Game you could see the path forward and how they could win the series...and then it went south. If you don't care, you can't be disappointed, and this team made people care. Lot of new and fun players on this team. lot of guys who absolutely will be back next year as key contributors: Lopez, Julien, Lewis, Wallner, Castro should all be around. Ober, Varland, Jax, and Jeffers all stepped up. there's a lot of upside for this team, and potential to improve. Sometimes you get a good team that's not very fun (the Jimmy Butler T-Wolves come to mind), but this was a group that was super easy to root for. Farmer, Polanco, Kepler with a resurgent season, bulldog Sonny Gray, and electric super lightning Duran! Lot of good dudes that really seemed to enjoy playing together. Fun to imagine what happens if better health reigns for Correa and Buxton (and Miranda, and Kirilloff, and Alcala...)

I am definitely on board with Pablo Lopez leading this rotation. He had an excellent year, healthy and consistent. He's got the arsenal to shut down any lineup, and showed he can be a big-game pitcher. He's shown he has the drive to improve and he's super-smart about his craft. And from everything we've heard, he sounds like a fantastic teammate too. Taking a shot at Baldelli related to Pablo Lopez is pretty wild: he just had his best season as a pro under Rocco. They worked with him on several things and made changes with him on his pitches and he finished the season strong and healthy (not hearing anyone knock him for a weak shoulder now are you?). He didn't have the same success with the breaking ball before he came here. So why exactly should anyone be worrying about the manager screwing him up? He didn't come here and do the same thing or worse: he actually got better.

So any player with a platoon split shouldn't be on this team? That's basically what you're saying here. I'm baffled about the outrage for the supposed "insult" pinch hitting Byron Buxton for MAT somehow is. Buxton is a better hitter. MAT was a fine player for us this season and stepped up when we needed him to, but he's not a great hitter: he's only been above league average one season in his career, and that was 6 years ago. Even hurt, Buxton has produced more value at the plate this season. he's an elite talent than can change a game. MAT was 2-13 with 5 Ks and no xbhs in the playoffs, it's not like we pinch-hit for a guy who was crushing it. And did you hear the crowd when Buxton came to the plate? It didn't work out, but it definitely put a charge into the whole place.