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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I think Vazquez will bounce back at the plate somewhat (and I suspect other teams would agree with that) so with his superior defense he still has some value and certainly could be worth the $10M he's due for 2024. The real question on dealing him comes down to two things for me: how confident are you that Jeffers can stay healthy enough to catch 100+ games, and how ready do you think Camargo is to not only handle the position defensively, but also hold his own at the plate. If the team feels strongly about Camargo's readiness to play in MLB (including handling full-time catching duties in case of an injury), then looking to move on from Vazquez is reasonable, especially if there's a decent deal out there. It would make it easier to hang on to Polanco, and they could add a catcher to hang out in AAA if injuries strike. I suspect right now the Twins are pushing Farmer, Polanco, and Vazquez out there to see what kind of market there is as they look to cut some payroll and stabilize the rotation. Without knowing how highly they think of Camargo, it's hard to know who serious they are about moving Vazquez. It's also hard to know what the market is for him: he was so awful on offense last season that even with his defense if he doesn't bounce back he's worth very little, and certainly not $10M. Camargo has a solid reputation behind the plate and he's been a quality bat at multiple levels, so last season at AAA isn't just an International League-fueled fluke. It's an interesting question.
  2. jmlease1
    Yeah...no. Maybe he's misunderstood, but he also might be just kind of a jackass, who got away with stuff when he was playing well and now people are like "Eff this guy". (You can be an innocent bystander only so many times...) he certainly doesn't fit in anywhere for the twins, who a) would have to reshuffle contracts and playing time to accommodate a player coming off a bad season, and b) have been working towards a "no jackasses" clubhouse. to fit Anderson on the Twins you would have to move Farmer and Polanco, both of whom played a LOT better than Anderson last year, and are well-liked by their teammates. Swapping Polanco for Anderson doesn't make you better and doesn't save you money, and now you've dumped a long-time veteran with positive relationships and a track record of being a good teammate for a guy who needs a big rebound and has a checkered history (even if it not might be totally fair). This is the sort of move the twins might have tried before signing Correa, desperately searching for a SS. Now? Hard pass.
  3. jmlease1
    Not to cast aspersions on Sonny Gray, but if the Twins had been the highest bidder, I suspect Sonny might have had a lovely sounding quote about the Twins all ready to go. "We started talking about an extension during the season, and I really felt like we had something special going here..." StL made sense for him; the only other baseball town closer to his hometown was Atlanta, and I'm sure that mattered somewhat. not as much as $75M over 3, but... I think Paddack will be able to replace Maeda's innings, possibly with more upside. Maeda's fastball is starting to get awfully hittable, and while he doesn't rely on it too heavily, at a certain point the slider and split struggle without something to play off of...and sometimes you need to put a pitch in the strike zone. Losing Gray is a loss, especially since he pitched very well for us this year. but there's decent odds he won't get through this contract without an injury and at $25M per, that could get rough. but the draft pick compensation is good and moreover, we're not in the same position we were when we dealt for Gray in the first place: desperate for starting pitching with few reliable options in place. I certainly hope we do better than signing a scrap-heap retread like Archer or Bundy this time, but at least they would be fighting for the 5th spot and wouldn't be the 2nd or 3rd man in the rotation from the jump...
  4. jmlease1
    He finished (correctly) 2nd in the Cy Young voting. even if he had gone 18-6, he wouldn't have won it. I find the argument that Gray wanted to get out of here so badly, and was treated poorly somehow to be absolutely baffling. He's gone because he got an offer for 3 years at $25M per with an organization he was interested in going to. He got more from the Cards than he was going to get from the Twins. Gray didn't go the the Cards for more run support; Twins scored significantly more runs last season. he didn't go there to win more games next season; Cards were a last place team, behind the sorry, no-account Pirates and have a lot of work to do to get back to average (the offense is aging and they signed a lot of old pitchers...maybe not a great combo). He took the $75M at one of the few non-costal teams that might have paid it to him. (and good for him on that, but let's not start making up ways the Twins mystically offended the great Sonny Gray)
  5. jmlease1
    I thought the Gray signing was pretty decent for StL; they didn't have to put in a 4th year, and while one of those 3 years is likely to not pan out because of age/injury, there's also an excellent chance that he provides surplus value in one or more of those seasons, and they really needed someone legitimate at the top of the rotation, much like the Twins did when we acquired Gray 2 years ago. (I do agree that the Gibson/Lynn signings are questionable) Starting pitching is expensive on the FA market, and even if Gray goes back to being more like a 150 IP guy over the next three years, he's got a very good chance of equaling or exceeding the value of his contract. That said, the Twins did a nice piece of business with Gray: they needed MLB pitching immediately and got it. They needed a front-line starter while trying to get their rotation and pipeline in order, and they got it. And they're getting a useful draft pick, akin to the one they gave up to get Gray in the first place. No regrets
  6. jmlease1
    Balazovic is on the shakiest ground. In addition to his ineffectiveness and recent injury history, the team was unquestionably unhappy with him getting into a bar fight (even if it wasn't his fault and he didn't start anything). Hard to say he has any value in a deal, so it's really a matter of whether or not he can come into camp healthy enough and pitching well enough to grab one of the last slots on the roster, otherwise he's probably going to get cut. The order here makes a lot of sense to me. I hope Winder is going to Driveline or somewhere like that in the offseason to try to find a better fastball result. He can't survive with the one he's got. I'm still a believer in SWR, who I think will be in line to start for the Twins in 2024 at some point. We'll see how his offseason goes, but he's shown things that make me awfully reluctant to give up on him at his age. (I'm sure he'll get a shot in the bullpen before that) Sadly, all of these are distressed assets that don't have much value in a trade right now.
  7. jmlease1
    It tells me someone was willing to offer him at least 3 years and $25M AAV. The idea that Gray left because of analytics or frustration in MN says more about the people expressing the opinion than it does about Sonny Gray. They are the ones that are frustrated with the approach. Highly doubt StL is going to treat Gray much differently than the Twins did this season, and Gray is going to be mad almost every time he comes out of the game (and will be over it by the next day. rinse, repeat).
  8. jmlease1
    Asserts facts not in evidence. Mauer led the league twice in caught stealing % and really only had one bad year in throwing guys out. He's was excellent at it in his first few seasons, slid back to around average, had a bad season and led the league again in his last season behind the plate. I'd say his arm was just fine. BTW, he did pretty well at blocking the plate too: 1 Passed Ball every 197 innings. (Molina was 1 every 190) And before anyone starts presuming that Mauer only caught pitcher with great control, his pitchers uncorked a WP 1 every 33 innings...exactly the same as Molina.
  9. jmlease1
    Even if I knew that Mauer was going to miss a bunch of time and have to quit catching at 31, I'd still take Mauer every single time. Molina was an excellent defensive catcher and remained a quality defender for his entire career, which is remarkable. But Mauer was a quality defender (even though he wasn't as good as Molina) and was so much better offensively that it's just not close. Molina's best seasons at the plate are akin to Joe Mauer's average seasons at the plate, and Molina didn't have very many good seasons as a hitter. Molina was only above league average 7 times in 19 seasons; Mauer had ONE season where he was below league average, and that wasn't until his skills had been lessened by concussions. Molina may have made 10 all-star games, but he only deserved about 3, maybe 4. Mauer deserved all 6 of his. Having a quality defender at catcher who can also hit is a massive competitive advantage. Having an elite hitter at catcher is amazing. Molina played 400 more games and only had 50 more hits. Mauer played 400 fewer games and drew 400 more walks. Molina played on better teams, but Mauer was the better player. Bigger peak, longer peak. Better career, even if it was shorter. They're really not close and shouldn't be comps. (Posey v Molina is more interesting; Molina played a LOT longer, Posey had a much higher peak. But they're much more comparable as players than either is to Joe Mauer, who should be a first-ballot HoFer)
  10. jmlease1
    3 years $25M per is pretty good business on Sonny Gray. Always knew he would get at least a 3 year deal and the number would be north of $20M per season. Only real question was whether someone might give him the 4th year. There's some risk in it, but not too serious. Good move by the Cards. The combination of money, years, and the lure of the compensatory pick meant there was always going to be little chance of bringing Gray back, but it's ending up being an excellent trade for the Twins. We got a lot of value from Gray over the last 2 seasons and this year he was deserving of every accolade he got. Getting those 2 years plus a pick for Petty is smart business, especially for where the Twins are as a franchise: trying to compete. Petty still looks like a nice prospect, but he has a ways to go. (I wouldn't exactly say he's been bump-free, either: only 68 innings and 18 starts this year? Getting to AA at 20 is impressive, but he still looks another 2 years away even if everything stays on track) Gray and Maeda are gone, but Ober is ready and Paddack looks back so we're not in the scary place we were 2 years ago when we went out to get Sonny Gray. I still expect them to go get a veteran starter either by signing a guy or making a trade, which pushes Varland back down to AAA to start the season. Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, and PTBNL with Varland, Festa, and Woods Richardson providing depth will still put us in a good position for the rotation to be a strength again. Hopefully the starter they sign slots above Paddack (in part so they can monitor Paddack's innings in his first full year back from TJ, in part so they're raising the ceiling a little more rather than the floor) but things still look solid. I just remember that after 2021 we didn't actually have anyone we were sure of in the rotation. Joe Ryan was the closest to a sure thing and he had 5 MLB starts. Ober looked good, but had an injury history (that reared up in 2022). We were talking about maybe bringing back Pineda again. We ended up signing Bundy and Archer, and needed them both. There was This year there's much less desperation and better depth already in place. Good luck to Sonny Gray (except when he faces us!). Great job while he was here and an excellent trade.
  11. jmlease1
    David Wright, but not Mauer? Talk about east-coast bias. Utley is an interesting case: had a massive start, but really faded at the end...but his big WAR numbers depend on high level defensive stats, which is a little complicated for a player that never won a Gold Glove. Admittedly, GG voting is messed up (Mauer not winning at 1B is case in point) but usually if someone is one of the best of their generation at their position they'll collect at least one along the way. The lack of "counting" stats (games played, hits, etc) is going to hurt Utley as well. He's an interesting case and should be debated. But voting for Utley and skipping Mauer seems again, coastal bias.
  12. jmlease1
    The comments sections at The Athletic show some of the weird local sentiment I was talking about. They've got a HoF piece up and there are people saying their MN fans and really throwing shade at Mauer, especially when baseball fans from other parts of the country are like "yeah, seems like an obvious first-ballot guy to me". There's this lingering bitterness that seems based on Mauer getting a huge contract and then not winning a World Series. As if he was responsible for the low payrolls the Pohlads kept, or the bad decisions made by various GMs, or the critical injuries (not just to Joe but Morneau, Liriano, etc), or even Phil Cuzzi. Joe Mauer was an MVP, a 6-time all-star (who deserved them all), 3-time batting champion, 3-time gold glover (should have been 4 with one at 1B in 2017) and did it while spending his first 10 seasons as a primary catcher. Look at what catchers hit these days and think about what Mauer would be worth. A truly great player. I'm still amazed he managed to hit .324 in 2013; that team had nobody else hitting (Morneau was sapped by injury, Dozier hadn't figured it out yet, Willingham was cooked and there was just nothing else there). Mauer only got IBB'd 7 times that season and I'm amazed it wasn't 20. He was on pace for another MVP-caliber season before it ended prematurely.
  13. jmlease1
    Fisk was also on the ballot during a very different time, though. You had more sentiment from voters about being a "first-ballot" HoFer being more special and have additional criteria for some voters. You still had obsessions about unanimous elections, and you had writers still giving players courtesy votes. There was also less understanding of defensive statistics as well. There's enough room on this year's ballot for Mauer to get in, but the biggest barrier will be voters who don't use more of their slots. The other barrier will be Joe's lack of post-season success, which wasn't really his fault (and he was denied a signature moment against the Yankees by Phil Cuzzi on what remains a staggeringly bad call) by some voters might hold it against him in the same idiotic way Dan Barreiro used to hold Mauer's walks against him. (Yes, I'm repeating my shots at DannyB; his near-vendetta against Mauer remains shameful, and I'm convinced half of it was because Mauer had no interest in appearing on his show, which makes it even worse)
  14. jmlease1
    I think the national media and baseball writers from other parts of the country hold Joe Mauer in greater esteem than some of the locals here in the Twin Cities (Dan Barreiro, are your ears burning?) and even (sadly) quite a few Twins fans. I would not be shocked for Mauer to make it on the first ballot, especially since many of the "not on the first ballot" or "if Player X wasn't unanimous, Imma make sure no one is unanimous!" guys are either gone from the voting ranks, have changed their ways, or are simply minimized. Mauer was a truly great player, an elite catcher who could do damn near everything. His swing was spectacular, his eye at the plate impeccable, and he was a leader in the clubhouse as well. (I think his mentorship and leadership late in his career was notable, handing out game balls and so forth) I wish he'd gotten the Gold Glove he deserved at 1B; having that kind of additional singular trait (winning a Gold Glove at two very different positions) would have helped the narrative, but Mauer is worthy regardless. He's one of the best catchers of all-time, and was awesome to see him play his whole career as a Twin.
  15. jmlease1
    If the only way to acquire a player like Alonso is to overpay with prospect capital so the other team will eat some salary, then it's a non-starter for me. And I do think dealing a global top-50 prospect for a one-year rental is an overpay. He's a nice fit on the team, playing 1B and DH with his RH power bat (and I would expect his BA to bounce back some), but the payroll issue makes it challenging. And I'm just not sure the Mets would even be interested. Who knows what their plan is right now, and while I'm sure they'd like to get a top-50 prospect, they also play in NY where total rebuilds don't go over very well. they moved out players that were really old last season, not guys under 30 and they still have talent on the squad. I think it's more likely they sign Alonso to long-term extension as a partner for Lindor and bridge to the future than try to send him along for a prospect. The other issue of course is the Twins need to have have prospects like ER graduate from the system and be the next wave of stars or the project is not sustainable. 1B isn't enough of a need to jeopardize that. i don't think this FO would risk that move for anything other than cost-controlled starting pitching. Can't say I blame them.
  16. jmlease1
    List seems about right. All of these players are pretty untouchable for the Twins absent a massive overpay in a deal. All of them are cheap with the exception of Lopez, and considering how hard it is to find an ace he's actually relatively underpaid. Part of the key for the Twins to stay competitive is to keep a flow of cost-controlled players flowing up from the minor leagues, so moving high-end prospects is only going to be done from a position of depth and strength, and to fill serious needs. For once, the Twins don't have any "oh god oh god, we can't possibly start the season like this!" needs, which makes it even less likely they'd look to move anyone off this list. I understand people questioning Ryan's presence on the list, but he's a cost-controlled starting pitcher who has shown that he can slot in to your rotation and give you a chance to win pretty much every night. He doesn't look like an ace (he's got some warts, like giving up too many HRs) but he's definitely a playoff-caliber starter. I'd say he's the better fit on this list than Ober from a trade value standpoint just because he's shown the ability to throw more innings consistently. YMMV on whether he's the better pitcher, but in terms of automatic trade value, he's the right choice. The only other guy who probably deserves some consideration for an untradable list is Emmanuel Rodriguez; the Twins see him as a high end prospect, and so does the rest of the league. It's hard to put him higher than anyone on this list (3 of these guys have shown/proven it in MLB already, Lee is already in AAA after doing the job in AA, and Jenkins had an amazing start and might have the highest upside of any Twins prospect since Joe Mauer) but he's probably next in line and I see little chance of the Twins moving him either, again, absent a massive overpay. With the Twins in a competitive zone with a strong MLB squad, I think they're more likely to make deals involving guys like Polanco this year or someone like Julien in the next couple of years once they get more expensive and they have quality players coming in behind. The FO was more interested in spending prospect capital when they had bigger holes to fill, but even then: they were always looking to deal from positions of strength.
  17. jmlease1
    Fascinating prospect. It'll be interesting to see if he can maintain a 4-5 pitch mix as he works his way up through the minors; if he can keep refining all of them and keep them in play it gives him an interesting advantage in always having something different throw at a player. He's done a very good job in keeping the ball in the park and the walk rates are very reasonable. Heck of a first professional year for Lewis. Wonder where the Twins will start him this year: back in high A to start or push him up to AA? I'm hoping for the latter. Not sure he'll get much more out of A-ball, and would like to see how he does against more advanced hitters. Always rooting for a dude who throws a knuckleball!
  18. jmlease1
    So, here's the thing: Sano & Gallo were both MLB players. Sano accumulated 7.6 bWAR, had a 116 OPS+, and made the all-star team. Gallo was a 2-time all-star, won 2 gold gloves, and has a career OPS+ of 110 even after the past 2 1/2 seasons where he struggled. Sabato is a former 1st round draft pick that is going to be exposed to the Rule 5 draft and doesn't look like he'll ever make it to the majors. I realize there's a real dislike towards players that K a lot around here, and the Gallo experiment flamed out after the first month causing immense frustration as he became unplayable again (yet lingered on the roster and kept getting chances). And Sano's last season was a disaster as the injuries piled up and he couldn't adjust. But early in their careers, Sano and Gallo added a lot of value to their teams. If Rosario is on a Gallo-ish path where he could supply quality defense (I wouldn't expect gold gloves) and light tower power and spends 5+ years in MLB with the Twins...that's a heck of a result for a 5th round pick. But grouping Sabato in with Gallo & Sano is ridiculous. Sabato has never dominated in the minors like Gallo or Sano did. Point of fact, Sabato has never dominated for a full season at any level in professional baseball, only doing it for short bursts. He's never had a season as good as Rosario's 2023 as a pro, despite being an older and more experienced college bat. Rosario had an excellent season in high A and deserves to have risen in his prospect status. He's going to be playing AA next season at 21, which is a great development path for a high school hitter. So far he hasn't needed to repeat a level, either.
  19. jmlease1
    What a bummer about Moran. I know he was wild and a little inconsistent, but that changeup was such a weapon. Was really hoping he could get things under control and be a factor. Hope he will come back on a 2-year minor league deal, but it's a shame that he needs TJ. Henriquez feels a bit like a 4A player: too good for AAA, but not quite good enough to succeed consistently in MLB. Probably the right move to non-tender him. Twins big challenge this off-season really isn't the 40-man, it's the 26-man. they don't have a lot of spots available on the 26-man, and they're not giving themselves a lot of payroll room either (self-imposed problem, but still a problem). The 40-man seems to be in good shape.
  20. jmlease1
    Castro was too integral to the team last season for them to option him in favor of a more limited player. And if Farmer gets moved, he's also the only backup SS they realistically have. the 26-man roster is very tight right now unless the Twins suddenly have a change in philosophy and start carrying only 12 pitchers (which is something I think they should consider, frankly; having 2 pitchers that only get used once a week is a redundancy they maybe can't afford; there were stretches were a guy like Winder or sands was on the roster but only threw once every 10-14 days). I agree the FO doesn't like to give a away a player for nothing, and would rather exercise options when they can...but Castro is just ahead of Gordon on the depth chart now. Moreover, I think they increasingly see him as an OF rather than an INF, which means they'd need to be finding room for a 5th OF, since he's not going to take Kepler or Wallner's spot, unless they seriously think he can be the primary backup to Buxton in CF...which seems unlikely.
  21. jmlease1
    Tough to find room for him on this roster. He's essentially just an OF for the Twins at this point (he's only a "break glass in case of emergency" SS, there are too many guys ahead of him at 2B, the Twins haven't shown any interest in playing him at 3B, and first base doesn't look like a good fit for him) but he's hardly a prototypical corner OF, and Wallner and Kepler are both LH options ahead of him. He was passable in CF and could still improve there in time, but it might be asking a lot to have him be the primary backup to Buxton...and I think the Twins would prefer to have a 4th OF who hits RH. Hardly playing (and being mired in a deep slump when he did play early) really reduces his trade value. But I would still look to move him. Otherwise I think he gets cut out of training camp and someone will pick him up on waivers for free. besides, the Twins could probably use the 40-man spot. Not sure you get more than an A-ball reliever at this point, but maybe he can be part of a package. Too bad. Seems like a good dude, and he's been really unlucky with his health and injuries.
  22. jmlease1
    That's fair. Jenkins is a major talent and so far has met every challenge with seeming ease. But a high school draft pick debuting at 21 is still pretty fantastic. That's the Joe Mauer path, and Jenkins is already a little ahead of that (Joe spent his first season in rookie ball, Jenkins has low-A games under his belt). He's been so good so far that it's easy to see him rocketing up tp AA in 2024, but it would still be a huge success if he finishes the year in Cedar Rapids. Keaschall and Schobel have the same problem in front of them to get up to MLB by 2025/26: lot of guys in front of them. Hard not to see Julien, Lee, and Lewis owning 2B/3B for a while and I could see either of them being used as trade bait at some point. So while I think the timeline might be realistic, I also think there's a real chance it'll be with someone else for one of them. Lot to feel good about in the top 10 prospect list: you have high-end talent, guys that have emerged through development, and relatively few with low ceilings. It's going to be exciting if the really young guys advance fairly quickly; always better to be adding guys to the 40-man when they're in AA/AAA rather than having to sort out whether they need to be protected while still in A-ball. Soto is the wildest wild card of the bunch: he's got oodles of talent, but he's also a high school pitcher and we literally haven't seen him throw a professional inning yet.
  23. jmlease1
    Sure, but Wallner showed he could dominate at AAA before he got his call-up and even Julien was getting rolling in his first 2 weeks of the season in AAA before coming up the first time. I'm more talking about clearing space for guys in advance of the season anyways, before they'd had a chance to show much. It also makes a difference if you have other options as well. because some of these rookies are going to struggle and even need to get a re-set back in AAA, and then you still have to fill the position in MLB. Catcher is a good example for this right now: if the Twins move Vazquez to create a spot for Camargo...what happens if Jeffers gets hurt and Camargo struggles? Right now our options would be very thin (and yes, we're likely to stash a veteran borderline catcher in AAA before the season starts just in case, but we haven't done it yet). the talent level in AAA is higher than it was 2 years ago, which certainly makes a difference, but the Twins clearly have no interest in getting into a situation where they're running out their 9th choice at OF while trying to stay in contention again. We've got room to move someone like Farmer or Polanco because we have depth in the middle infield (although SS is definitely lean) and Julien has already shown he can handle 2B on a regular basis. But it'd be a lot riskier if we packaged up farmer, Polanco and Julien for pitching and handed 2B to Brooks Lee...
  24. jmlease1
    A mixed bag in the AFL for the twins this year. Rosario did pretty well, but the low average will make people (rightfully) nervous. It'll be interesting to see how he does in AA this season. Cossetti struggled at the plate, but still had a solid season overall. not exactly the springboard we were hoping for, but we'll see how he does next season. carr was pretty impressive, nice to see at least one pitcher do well. Sabato...this was a bit of Last Chance to Impress time for him, and i don't know if he did. The HRs were impressive, but his contact problems remain, and are the sort of thing that will only get worse in all likelihood. he will be exposed to the Rule 5 draft...not sure anyone is going to take him, though. a slugging 1B who doesn't make much contact at AA isn't exactly promising for the MLB roster.
  25. jmlease1
    That's fair, but when the team is in a competitive cycle like the Twins currently are I'd rather have prospects force their way on to the MLB squad rather than get there on scholarship. Brooks Lee is a heck of a prospect, and I'm very high on him but he hasn't crushed AAA in ways that demand the Twins make room for him immediately...yet. He earned his promotion to AAA for sure. I'm fine with having him keep earning it; I think he's going to have a great year in Saint Paul and be up early if/when we have an injury in the infield. Austin Martin has overcome a lot and has had a bumpy road as a prospect. he earned his promotion to AAA with his AFL performance, and did a good job coming back from injury again. But he really had one great month, so while I'm still thinking he can be a valuable player for the Twins (he profiles wonderfully for this team as a potential 4th OF/super utility player who can get on base, steal bases, play good defense in multiple positions, and have a little pop in his bat) he didn't do so well that the Twins shouldn't still look for a more proven backup CF first. Do I think he can carve out a role some time in 2024? You betcha, but he doesn't need to do it on scholarship. Severino is interesting as a 1B option (switch-hitter with loads of power) but again: I wouldn't move someone out to find him a job in MLB. Camargo is interesting, but the only way to put him in MLB is to move on from Vazquez, and if we do that we have no other catchers ready to step in in case of injury. Right now we'd have to eat part of Vazquez's contract anyways. I'm really excited about our prospects; there's some definite talents moving up through the system, but having depth is good and there's no need to create openings yet.
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