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Jeremy Nygaard

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About Jeremy Nygaard

  • Birthday 05/27/1983

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    Elementary Teacher

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  1. Ceiling - if the power comes and he irons out all the defensive questions: Mookie Betts, with less speed. His floor: Marwin Gonzalez, Twins 2020. I do like my comp as a more versatile Luis Arraez as a median.
  2. I wouldn't worry too much about being a RP yet. He's going to end up there if he doesn't get the walks under control, but he's had a really weird year with the Olympics interrupting his year. I'll give his 2021 year of stats a pass.
  3. I love Martin and might drive the hype train. He was playing 3B at Vandy, but questions about his arm strength and accuracy led to a move to CF. You can live with seeing how that plays out while developing, but the likelihood is that SS/3B and CF won't be long-term homes. 2B/LF is probably how this plays out. He could turn out to be what you wish Arraez would be defensively, with a very similar offensive profile if the power doesn't develop.
  4. I think the organization is probably ok with their CF depth if Buxton sticks around. Celestino and Cave (I know) with Gordon and, potentially, Royce Lewis. With no Buxton, the depth chart is scary. (But in that event, you're signing someone to a one-year deal hoping to cash in at this time next year.)
  5. Traditionally, buying teams aren't trading major league contributors. And the selling teams are content to turn their major league players into younger, cheaper, controllable players. It's how the Padres got Fernando Tatis Jr for James Shields. It's how the Brewers got Josh Hader for Carlos Gomez. It's how the Mets got Noah Syndergaard for R.A. Dickey. All seem lopsided towards the prospect side now. (And each team getting the prospects got more than just the guy I mentioned.) Obviously they don't always turn out. But that's what makes this all so entertaining.
  6. I wrote the Pineda piece prior to him pitching last night. His value is higher today than yesterday. Great question about the CBA... I have no idea. I'd *guess* it would still happen.
  7. All of these returns include a "big name" and I think that's the cover charge on doing business with the Twins about Berrios.
  8. It's one thing to say "we plan to compete" and another to make the moves to actually compete. I really think the FO planned/plans to compete in 2022, but then realized that moving Berrios/closing the 2022 window that was only slightly opened anyway might be less favorable then moving Berrios for a haul. If it's not a haul, they say, "Yeah, we always planned to compete in 2022." (Before trading Berrios in the offseason.)
  9. The trade deadline is fast approaching, and Twins Daily has explored many of the teams that the Twins could potentially trade with. Let's take a shot at putting all of those puzzle pieces together and preview what the organization could look like when the dust settles. The Twins made their first big move sending Nelson Cruz to Tampa Bay in exchange for two pitching prospects. There were reports over the weekend that Byron Buxton won't be signing a contract extension with the club and rumors of willingness to listen on team-controlled players such as Jose Berrios, Taylor Rogers, and Max Kepler. So, where do we go from here? We're going to start with the players on expiring contracts. Trade Andrelton Simmons to the Reds for SS Gus Steiger. Steiger, who is from Minnetonka and played collegiately at South Dakota State, signed with the Reds as an undrafted free agent in 2020 and would provide organizational depth in Fort Myers. The Twins would send no cash in the deal, leaving the Reds on the hook for the remaining $3.5 million on Simmons' contract. Trade Michael Pineda to the Astros for P Misaell Tamarez. Tamarez has less than 75 professional innings under his belt and has a walk rate over six, but he also strikes out more than a hitter per inning and has some ceiling. Tamarez would join the Fort Myers staff, where he could start or relieve. The Twins would get all of next year to evaluate Tamarez before deciding whether or not to add him to the 40-man roster. Pineda has $3.4 million left on his contract, which the Astros would pick up. I'd also expect Big Mike to be back with the Twins on a two-year deal this offseason. Trade Hansel Robles to the Red Sox for RP Durbin Feltman. Boston will give up Feltman, who may help in a bullpen someday, for Robles, who will help them in the bullpen for the rest of the year. Robles is owed less than $700,000 for the remainder of the year. Feltman, who has seen his velocity dip since turning pro in 2018, is the type of prospect on who the Twins could take a chance. If they can unlock some of that lost velocity, there is a chance he could be added to the 40-man when first eligible this upcoming offseason. Trade J.A. Happ to the Phillies for a PTBNL or cash. Happ broke into the big leagues with Philadelphia in 2007 and can provide rotational depth. The return for Happ would likely be a little bit of cash to offset his contract. He's still owed just shy of $3 million. The Twins would stay on the hook for almost all of that. The only other impending free agent is Alex Colome, who has been bad this year. If there's a team interested, he could be had for a meager price. Even if the Twins pay the remainder of his salary, the return will be low… in fact, it would be a win if someone else would be responsible for buying out his option. Before going on to the next - and definitely more debatable - part, one thing that needs to be discussed (because it will get a lot of consideration) is the 40-man roster. Except for Drew Strotman, none of the actual or projected returns to this point include someone on the 40-man roster. The Twins also have five players on the 60-day IL that will need to be activated this offseason. Now, granted, the roster has several fringe-40-man players that can be removed, but the organization has to be very careful about the position they put themselves in with acquiring players. Part of the reason Tampa Bay was ok giving up two of their top prospects for Cruz likely had to do with the crunch they were going to face this offseason. (They probably would have lost Strotman on outright waivers.) Just by my quick estimation, there are eight players (seven pitchers!) that I think are more likely to get added to the 40-man than not either later this season or in the offseason. If the Twins are going to rebuild, they would be wise to acquire prospects who are at least a year away from needing to be added to the 40-man roster. Whatever Taylor Rogers did to his finger last night puts his status on the trade market in question. If healthy - and if I were calling the shots - I would have him very available. But for this exercise, he will remain with the Twins. I'm not going to trade Josh Donaldson either. My stance would be that I would make him available, but I want a fair prospect return. The money complicates that. The Twins, in my opinion, will move Donaldson if someone is willing to take on the remainder of his contract. That will minimize the return. Josh Donaldson is too good of a baseball player just to give away. I'll listen on Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco, but I don't see either getting moved. Kenta Maeda as well. For an overpay, I'd move every one of them. Now for the big dogs… Not only do I think Byron Buxton will not be moved, I believe a whirlwind Trade Deadline Week is going to be capped off with a Byron Buxton extension. Maybe it won't be Friday because the front office will be busy. But soon enough that the fanbase won't be able to check out for the year. Jose Berrios is a different story. Even a week ago, I wasn't convinced that Berrios was going anywhere. Now I've done a complete 180 and think there is no way he's not traded. And there's going to be a market. Take your pick… San Diego is aggressive, has prospects, and is forward-thinking enough to pull off another blockbuster. Would they include any of their four top prospects? Would MacKenzie Gore, who's been a mess lately, even be enough? Or would the Twins shoot for the injured CJ Abrams or Robert Hassell? Could the Twins bring back Eric Hosmer's bad contract to help the Padres out financially and ask for another top prospect too? The Dodgers don't want to share the spotlight. Is it really a possibility that they offer Dustin May? If so, that is a conversation that needs to be had. Maybe the Giants won't want to be outdone, and though they can't offer a top-end pitching prospect, they do have prospect currency, including SS Marco Luciano and C Joey Bart. There should be enough interest that the Twins don't have to settle for prospects that aren't in the top tier. The AL East is also worth watching. Toronto (P Nate Pearson and SS Austin Martin) and New York (P Deivi Garcia) would both be able to move the needle. The NL East is just as interesting. The Mets have the prospects, but all are a few promotions from the major yet. (Plus, Kevin Mulvey is no longer available.) The Braves could be a match. So what would I do….? I'd call Trader Jerry and make a deal with the Mariners. The basic framework would be Jose Berrios for P George Kirby. Kirby is a Top 20 prospect and hasn't reached AA yet (but will soon). The Mariners are also in the market for an infielder. Does expanding the deal to include Jorge Polanco make sense? Would the Mariners have any interest in taking on Josh Donaldson? Does DiPoto want to roll the dice on Taylor Rogers being ready soon and helping out down the stretch? It would be hard to bet against the Mets, Dodgers, Padres, or Yankees in a bidding war, but the Mariners are a longshot who could make the best deal for both teams. Maybe the holes these trades would create would have to be filled internally, which may not seem to scream "we're competing in 2022," but in a season with so many questions and so few answers, do we really want to be tricked into thinking that's possible anyway? View full article
  10. The Twins made their first big move sending Nelson Cruz to Tampa Bay in exchange for two pitching prospects. There were reports over the weekend that Byron Buxton won't be signing a contract extension with the club and rumors of willingness to listen on team-controlled players such as Jose Berrios, Taylor Rogers, and Max Kepler. So, where do we go from here? We're going to start with the players on expiring contracts. Trade Andrelton Simmons to the Reds for SS Gus Steiger. Steiger, who is from Minnetonka and played collegiately at South Dakota State, signed with the Reds as an undrafted free agent in 2020 and would provide organizational depth in Fort Myers. The Twins would send no cash in the deal, leaving the Reds on the hook for the remaining $3.5 million on Simmons' contract. Trade Michael Pineda to the Astros for P Misaell Tamarez. Tamarez has less than 75 professional innings under his belt and has a walk rate over six, but he also strikes out more than a hitter per inning and has some ceiling. Tamarez would join the Fort Myers staff, where he could start or relieve. The Twins would get all of next year to evaluate Tamarez before deciding whether or not to add him to the 40-man roster. Pineda has $3.4 million left on his contract, which the Astros would pick up. I'd also expect Big Mike to be back with the Twins on a two-year deal this offseason. Trade Hansel Robles to the Red Sox for RP Durbin Feltman. Boston will give up Feltman, who may help in a bullpen someday, for Robles, who will help them in the bullpen for the rest of the year. Robles is owed less than $700,000 for the remainder of the year. Feltman, who has seen his velocity dip since turning pro in 2018, is the type of prospect on who the Twins could take a chance. If they can unlock some of that lost velocity, there is a chance he could be added to the 40-man when first eligible this upcoming offseason. Trade J.A. Happ to the Phillies for a PTBNL or cash. Happ broke into the big leagues with Philadelphia in 2007 and can provide rotational depth. The return for Happ would likely be a little bit of cash to offset his contract. He's still owed just shy of $3 million. The Twins would stay on the hook for almost all of that. The only other impending free agent is Alex Colome, who has been bad this year. If there's a team interested, he could be had for a meager price. Even if the Twins pay the remainder of his salary, the return will be low… in fact, it would be a win if someone else would be responsible for buying out his option. Before going on to the next - and definitely more debatable - part, one thing that needs to be discussed (because it will get a lot of consideration) is the 40-man roster. Except for Drew Strotman, none of the actual or projected returns to this point include someone on the 40-man roster. The Twins also have five players on the 60-day IL that will need to be activated this offseason. Now, granted, the roster has several fringe-40-man players that can be removed, but the organization has to be very careful about the position they put themselves in with acquiring players. Part of the reason Tampa Bay was ok giving up two of their top prospects for Cruz likely had to do with the crunch they were going to face this offseason. (They probably would have lost Strotman on outright waivers.) Just by my quick estimation, there are eight players (seven pitchers!) that I think are more likely to get added to the 40-man than not either later this season or in the offseason. If the Twins are going to rebuild, they would be wise to acquire prospects who are at least a year away from needing to be added to the 40-man roster. Whatever Taylor Rogers did to his finger last night puts his status on the trade market in question. If healthy - and if I were calling the shots - I would have him very available. But for this exercise, he will remain with the Twins. I'm not going to trade Josh Donaldson either. My stance would be that I would make him available, but I want a fair prospect return. The money complicates that. The Twins, in my opinion, will move Donaldson if someone is willing to take on the remainder of his contract. That will minimize the return. Josh Donaldson is too good of a baseball player just to give away. I'll listen on Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco, but I don't see either getting moved. Kenta Maeda as well. For an overpay, I'd move every one of them. Now for the big dogs… Not only do I think Byron Buxton will not be moved, I believe a whirlwind Trade Deadline Week is going to be capped off with a Byron Buxton extension. Maybe it won't be Friday because the front office will be busy. But soon enough that the fanbase won't be able to check out for the year. Jose Berrios is a different story. Even a week ago, I wasn't convinced that Berrios was going anywhere. Now I've done a complete 180 and think there is no way he's not traded. And there's going to be a market. Take your pick… San Diego is aggressive, has prospects, and is forward-thinking enough to pull off another blockbuster. Would they include any of their four top prospects? Would MacKenzie Gore, who's been a mess lately, even be enough? Or would the Twins shoot for the injured CJ Abrams or Robert Hassell? Could the Twins bring back Eric Hosmer's bad contract to help the Padres out financially and ask for another top prospect too? The Dodgers don't want to share the spotlight. Is it really a possibility that they offer Dustin May? If so, that is a conversation that needs to be had. Maybe the Giants won't want to be outdone, and though they can't offer a top-end pitching prospect, they do have prospect currency, including SS Marco Luciano and C Joey Bart. There should be enough interest that the Twins don't have to settle for prospects that aren't in the top tier. The AL East is also worth watching. Toronto (P Nate Pearson and SS Austin Martin) and New York (P Deivi Garcia) would both be able to move the needle. The NL East is just as interesting. The Mets have the prospects, but all are a few promotions from the major yet. (Plus, Kevin Mulvey is no longer available.) The Braves could be a match. So what would I do….? I'd call Trader Jerry and make a deal with the Mariners. The basic framework would be Jose Berrios for P George Kirby. Kirby is a Top 20 prospect and hasn't reached AA yet (but will soon). The Mariners are also in the market for an infielder. Does expanding the deal to include Jorge Polanco make sense? Would the Mariners have any interest in taking on Josh Donaldson? Does DiPoto want to roll the dice on Taylor Rogers being ready soon and helping out down the stretch? It would be hard to bet against the Mets, Dodgers, Padres, or Yankees in a bidding war, but the Mariners are a longshot who could make the best deal for both teams. Maybe the holes these trades would create would have to be filled internally, which may not seem to scream "we're competing in 2022," but in a season with so many questions and so few answers, do we really want to be tricked into thinking that's possible anyway?
  11. What’s Their Situation? Atlanta is the three-time defending division champs and came one game short of the World Series last year. They currently find themselves behind the Mets and neck-and-neck with the Phillies. Their odds to win the division, though, trail only New York, according to Vegas Insider. What Do They Need? Down all three outfield starters from Opening Day, the Braves would need to start there. Acuna is out for the season (at least), Marcell Ozuna’s status in society needs to be resolved before a Major League team even considers playing him again and Christian Pache, recovered from injury, is back in the minor leagues after struggling. The Braves started out their second half by acquiring Joc Pederson from the Cubs. Pederson fills a spot for this season, but has a hefty mutual option for next year that will likely lead to the Braves choosing to let Pederson head to free agency Looking ahead, you can’t confidently place a single player in their 2022 Opening Day outfield. The pitching staff is in pretty good shape. While it’s possible they add some reinforcements, the priority for the Braves - if they choose to add - is the outfield. Which Twins Are the Best Fit? Max Kepler, under contract for around $20 million and three more seasons after this one, is the most obvious fit. He’s both versatile and affordable and could be viewed as expendable with the emergence of Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach. In 2019, Austin Riley, currently manning third base for the Braves, primarily played left field. The reason: Josh Donaldson. Donaldson had a great year (124 OPS+) and used it to sucker a team into committing at least $90 million to him. The Braves didn’t want to commit the years and cash to Donaldson in free agency, so it would require the Twins to kick in a large amount of money. Hansel Robles could be a cheap bullpen option for any team looking to make a bullpen upgrade. Especially if that team isn’t sure where it’s going to stand in August. Jose Berrios and Taylor Rogers could help out any team who plans to compete in 2022, though if the Twins were motivated to move them, that market would probably grow in the off-season. Who Could The Twins Get Back? Kyle Muller, RHP, 23yo - Muller is MLB-ready and has spent time both with the Braves and at AAA. He may not project as more than a mid- to late-rotation contributor if he can’t bring his walk rate down. But at 23, Muller still has upside. Freddy Tarnok, RHP, 22yo - Tarnok is a prospect who comes with both a high-ceiling and a low-floor. The fastball that nearly reaches triple-digits is something to like. His slider and changeup are still works in progress. If both improve, you have a starter with a lot of potential. If neither become a usable pitch, you likely end up with someone who never cracks the big-league roster. Ambioris Tavarez, SS, 17yo - The Twins have added a number of shortstops to their system over the last ten years, yet there is no obvious answer to the question, “Who is the Twins shortstop of the future?” Tavarez has yet to make his professional debut. But if the Twins are building for the future, adding another shortstop would make sense.
  12. The Braves find themselves in a precarious position after losing one of the game’s young superstars, Ronald Acuna, to a season-ending injury right before the All-Star break. They may end up tempted to move some of their pending free agents as the month comes to a close. But with only a handful of games separating them from the East-leading Mets, they are currently one of the few teams in baseball already aggressively buying. What’s Their Situation? Atlanta is the three-time defending division champs and came one game short of the World Series last year. They currently find themselves behind the Mets and neck-and-neck with the Phillies. Their odds to win the division, though, trail only New York, according to Vegas Insider. What Do They Need? Down all three outfield starters from Opening Day, the Braves would need to start there. Acuna is out for the season (at least), Marcell Ozuna’s status in society needs to be resolved before a Major League team even considers playing him again and Christian Pache, recovered from injury, is back in the minor leagues after struggling. The Braves started out their second half by acquiring Joc Pederson from the Cubs. Pederson fills a spot for this season, but has a hefty mutual option for next year that will likely lead to the Braves choosing to let Pederson head to free agency Looking ahead, you can’t confidently place a single player in their 2022 Opening Day outfield. The pitching staff is in pretty good shape. While it’s possible they add some reinforcements, the priority for the Braves - if they choose to add - is the outfield. Which Twins Are the Best Fit? Max Kepler, under contract for around $20 million and three more seasons after this one, is the most obvious fit. He’s both versatile and affordable and could be viewed as expendable with the emergence of Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach. In 2019, Austin Riley, currently manning third base for the Braves, primarily played left field. The reason: Josh Donaldson. Donaldson had a great year (124 OPS+) and used it to sucker a team into committing at least $90 million to him. The Braves didn’t want to commit the years and cash to Donaldson in free agency, so it would require the Twins to kick in a large amount of money. Hansel Robles could be a cheap bullpen option for any team looking to make a bullpen upgrade. Especially if that team isn’t sure where it’s going to stand in August. Jose Berrios and Taylor Rogers could help out any team who plans to compete in 2022, though if the Twins were motivated to move them, that market would probably grow in the off-season. Who Could The Twins Get Back? Kyle Muller, RHP, 23yo - Muller is MLB-ready and has spent time both with the Braves and at AAA. He may not project as more than a mid- to late-rotation contributor if he can’t bring his walk rate down. But at 23, Muller still has upside. Freddy Tarnok, RHP, 22yo - Tarnok is a prospect who comes with both a high-ceiling and a low-floor. The fastball that nearly reaches triple-digits is something to like. His slider and changeup are still works in progress. If both improve, you have a starter with a lot of potential. If neither become a usable pitch, you likely end up with someone who never cracks the big-league roster. Ambioris Tavarez, SS, 17yo - The Twins have added a number of shortstops to their system over the last ten years, yet there is no obvious answer to the question, “Who is the Twins shortstop of the future?” Tavarez has yet to make his professional debut. But if the Twins are building for the future, adding another shortstop would make sense. View full article
  13. 100% agree. And you're getting hardly anything - maybe nothing - for someone taking Donaldson's entire contract. (Might have to throw a prospect in with him.) He's more valuable to the Twins.
  14. For sure, Donaldson's potential return depends almost exclusively on the money the Twins would send. So it would be extremely difficult to cover that whole scope.
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