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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Seattle hasn't lost a home series in like 2 months, so this is a really nice win. Good road trip too; can't complaint about going 6-3 on the road and winning all three series. Sure, would have been nice to have grabbed one of those 1-run losses, but if you're winning your road series then you're good shape as a team. Larnach is having a solid season. He's still got some things to work on, and he's probably been a bit unlucky, but he's battling and not getting overwhelmed. He was super hot out the gate when he got his chance, slumped when the league reacted to him, but he seems to be making the adjustments right now to get back on track. Saw him laying off pitches this road trip that were K's last season which is a good sign. Good to see Ryan do ok with runners on base. As long as he's not giving up the dinger when ducks are on the pond, I feel good about him. Keep winning series, boys.
  2. jmlease1
    Not too many CFs hitting this season. Judge is in a different class, but Buck should start getting his reputation back. (Bleday isn't a great defender out there, but he can hit in a year when few guys can. Oakland actually has more than one not-terrible pick this year for their token all-star, maybe?) The lineup is producing like most of us thought it could at the start of the season, albeit with some different characters in the cast. But it's awfully nice to have Correa and Buxton leading the way
  3. jmlease1
    he may be 27, but he's earned a shot. Just don't know if they'll find it for him with the Twins. I wouldn't mind seeing him get a real shot at being the 4th OF in 2025. Nice to see Severino continuing to rake. He's had a truly awesome June. Doncon seems to be settling in a bit at Cedar Rapids, nice to see him rip a dinger.
  4. jmlease1
    Excellent win. Seattle is a good team, especially their pitching. Overall a good outing from Pablo, and hopefully he's getting back to form. The dingers are a little concerning, but the solo shots won't sink you (see Ryan, Joe). Alcala is a nice add to the back end of the 'pen, so if we can get Stewart back soon and Duran's issues sorted we'll be in good shape there, especially with Jax being so dominant. Uncharacteristic struggles from Castro; no one likes to see the Golden Sombrero, but he's been so good this season you have to allow for the occasional stinker. And with Buxton on a heater right now and Carlos Santana refusing to change his Evil Ways the offense came through nicely. Winning the series on sunday would be an excellent way to wrap up the road trip!
  5. jmlease1
    Is he? seems to be about average so far this season, but it's all a small sample size. Arm appears good enough for 3B, but of course if it is too weak for 3B then 2B would be an option. (Miranda is the one with the poor arm) Royce looks like he'll have good range at 3B and he's doing a good job learning the position on the fly. Pretty much every professional talent evaluator out there thinks that Brooks Lee would be above average defensively at 2B or 3B, with several thinking he could be elite at 3B, so I'm confused why you think he's trash defensively. He's been able to hold his own at SS past people thinking he was going to get moved off it too. Teams drop players in all the time at positions they didn't play much in the minors or previously, particularly when they're moving down the defensive spectrum. Polanco had no trouble handling 2B when they moved him off SS and was immediately a solid defender there.
  6. jmlease1
    Because they would have lost him in the Rule 5 Draft for nothing if they didn't add him to the 40-man? Someone would have taken a flier on him, it's not like Sabato who was still down in AA. Maybe he makes it maybe he doesn't, but if you're a bad team why wouldn't you take a shot at him and see if you might find a hitter? We'll see how he finishes the year. If he keeps hammering the ball and has reasonable K rates then he has a chance to compete for a spot or be more than a throw-in for a trade.
  7. jmlease1
    Hopefully guys are wearing wrist guards and so forth to protect more vulnerable parts of the body. Because I suspect it's not going to lighten up much (Martin has a long minor league history of getting plunked even if it hasn't shown up so far in MLB), especially with the pitching focus on max effort. It's going to send more and more pitches into guys when they can't control it as well trying to gas it up more.
  8. jmlease1
    Yunior is on a real heater right now. But he need to sustain his production for more than just June. It doesn't have to be at this level, but right now his season is one great month: he had a terrible start to the season and even in May he was just ok. But this is what we hoped for from him. Keaschall continues to do well. I like that he's taking his walks, and I think a little more power will come along, but it's great to see him making good contact, getting on base and staying within himself. He's having an excellent season and it's hard to believe this is his first full professional season.
  9. jmlease1
    I thought Festa did ok for a first start. There's real talent there and he's got the stuff and the tools and the makeup to do just fine while Paddack is on the IL. He might go back down at that point to to finish the season in AAA/wait for his next chance based on injury but he should be able to compete for a rotation spot in 2025. AZ knows how to score runs, so this was a good test. BTW, the idea that Jack Morris "pitched to the score" has always been part of the Jack Morris Fantasy; there's little evidence that he actually did it outside of blowouts (like every other starter) but Jack's never been shy about promoting his own mythology, even if it's 100% Bee Ess. Great night for the offense and good to see contributions from all over the lineup. Sure, AZ's defense was poor, but 13 hits is 13 hits. Hopefully Correa is ok; he's been awesome. If Buxton is rolling along with him it's a great sign for the Twins. Miranda is looking great, and I love it. Sucks to see Farmer struggling so much. He's been better after a horrific start, but there's no pop in his bat, he's not hitting the ball hard and if Castro wasn't playing so well it'd be a huge hole. You have to think they'd be better off with Lee at 2B and Castro as the regular LF; while Margot is hitting LHP like he was expected to, he's still awful against RHP. It's always a little complicated with veterans like this especially onces who are great clubhouse guys, can play multiple positions, etc. Patience paid off with Santana (lot of people around here wanted him cut back in April), Margot has grown into the role he was primarily acquired for as well...how much time should Farmer get?
  10. jmlease1
    I don't mind the talk of SWR for ROY. He's been doing really well for the twins, grinding his way through games and letting his talent and work ethic shine. I've been on his corner for a while and always felt like he had the ability to get it done, but had gone through one of the more screwed up developmental processes, one that was almost perfectly "designed" to make it harder on him. Think about it: drafted at 17 shows promise at 18 in low A ball with 20 starts traded at 18 new organization bumps him up to high A immediately age 19, no minor season for COVID age 20, gets promoted again having only 6 starts in high A and not having pitched for a season age 20 picked for the Olympic team, but doesn't actually play age 20 traded again repeats a level at age 21 for the first time in his career age 21 promoted to AAA age 21 gets his first MLB start because he's been around for a while I think there was an assumption that he was experienced. But Toronto was extremely aggressive with him and I think they really blew it. they never should have jumped him to AA like they did and I think the move from the Mets to Toronto nearly wrecked his career. Props to the Twins development staff for basically throwing out 2021 and treating it as a re-set season. I'm really impressed with how he's managed to get his free passes under control this season in MLB. Lots of players see that tick up when they go to the big leagues and SWR has actually brought it down. he's always been good at keeping the ball in the park and while it would be nice to see a few more Ks, he hasn't been easy to rack up hits on. They've been careful not to expose him too much, but he's also done his part by not having two clunkers in a row this year in MLB. And it's not just beating up bad teams either: his best start was against Seattle (division leader) and while he took the loss against Cleveland, he certainly pitched well enough to win. Always liked SWR. Glad to see it paying out for him.
  11. jmlease1
    I think that's fair. I'm leaning that way as well, because we're talking about AA at this point. It's not like we're talking about a guy still down in Ft. Myers. There's only 1 stop left in the minors and if he's not going to ever get a starter's workload even at AA, then maybe it's time to shift him to relief. He turns 22 in about a month, so it's not like he's a kid any longer either, and they're going to have to make a 40-man decision on him soon too. Must be something in the medicals with him, which would be a bummer. But harder and harder to see him as a starting pitching prospect.
  12. jmlease1
    Severino is having a fantastic June. but he was just ok in May and started horrifically. He's going to need to show that this is more than just a hot streak. But it's great that he seems to have figuring some things out, you have to love seeing him pull more walks than Ks in June while still crushing the ball. He needs to hit his way to MLB but a power-hitting switch-hitter would be a nice add... Lee looks awesome. I love it. Morris is having a great season so far. His WHIP in AA is sick! Not bad at all for the Texas League. the 2022 draft is looking very strong right now for the Twins: they went heavy on college players and they seem to be developing fast. And this is without Prielipp being healthy at all!
  13. jmlease1
    I think he has the ability to be at least average defensively at 1B and he'll hit enough for the position. Backup 3B if needed, play some DH...hard not to see him having a full-time role in 2025 for sure. The injury last season really wrecked his whole year, and he probably should have shut it down and had surgery sooner, but it's understandable why he and the team would try and rehab and play through it. He's clearly feeling much better at the plate, and is able to swing hard and confidently again.
  14. jmlease1
    What a difference a year and good health makes. Jose Miranda is back to being the kind of hitter we thought he could be and really looks locked in. (oddly, he's struggling the most against LHP, which I expect will start to norm out as the season goes on) Love the way he's insisting that he get in the lineup with his play. This is the kind of offense we expected this team to produce this season, even if it's not exactly the group of guys we thought would be doing it. SWR just keeps grinding away. He's doing a very good job of keeping the ball in the park and not handing out free passes and just keeping the team in the game and giving them a chance to win. He's been really important this season.
  15. jmlease1
    Exciting opportunity for Festa! AZ will be a very good challenge; they score plenty of runs. But he's a legit 3-pitch guy: the slider is an effective pitch and the changeup really helps against lefty hitters, so if he can keep hitters from squaring up on his fastball he should do well. Looking forward to seeing how he does. It would be a nice win for the scouting and development departments too. Festa was hardly a significant name coming out of college, and converting a 13th round college pitcher into a legit MLB starter would be massive.
  16. jmlease1
    Usually injuries work out the playing time issues, so i expect to see Wallner and/or Lee at least some time in the second half. And I expect a portion of the fan base to hate having Wallner back because of the K's, regardless of what his overall production is. I do think the twins will need to move on from some of the veterans for 2025 and it would be good if some of the young guys show out again this season to inspire confidence for that path. Potential lineup for 2025: C - Jeffers/Camargo 1B - Miranda/Julien 2B - Lee SS - Correa 3B - Lewis RF - Wallner CF - Buxton LF - Martin/Castro DH - By committee (Jeffers/Buxton/Miranda/Julien) that could be a very exciting lineup. Absent injury, I'm not expecting Camargo until next season, really but I could see him getting a chance to be the catching pair if they can move off Vazquez's contract.
  17. jmlease1
    He also had a rotten June hitting, that would have been almost impossibly bad if not for a good last week, so the idea that the Twins have been failing Jeffers by not playing him more recently is an interesting one. If he doesn't get hurt (which is something they're working hard to guard against because he's an important player) he's going to easily play in more than 50% of the games this season and hit career highs for starts and games played. Seems fine, especially with Vazquez no longer looking helpless at the plate (in an admittedly small sample, but his June was certainly good enough). I mean, i think we want Miranda's bat in the lineup too. Maybe it would be better to play Jeffers and extra 3-4 games a month at catcher and tilt the balance, but this is also getting into the part of the season where players start getting worn down and dinged up. Since Jeffers slumped badly for most of June, maybe he was feeling a little worn down from handling a bigger workload (in total) at this point in a season than he's ever experienced in his entire MLB career...
  18. jmlease1
    He's 4th on the team in games played, 4th on the team in plate appearances. Currently appearing in 80% of the games, not 50%. He's only catching 50%, but they're still getting his bat in the lineup.
  19. jmlease1
    i think you have him pretty well evaluated here. he's absolutely got to be able to command the zone better and keep the free passes down. If he's able to get the BB/9 down closer to 3 and do it without needing to back off his stuff to throw strikes, then I suspect we'll see the K-rate tick up a bit and his H/9 tick down/stay reasonable as well. Too often a player with his profile starts tossing a "get-over" pitch in 3 ball counts that lead to more hits (Pagan was a great example of this, IMHO) He's doing a good job keeping the ball in the park this year, which is no small feat in the Texas League. Disagree that he was primarily a reliever in 2022, though: 22 appearances, 14 were starts.
  20. jmlease1
    It's certainly preferable that Margot and Farmer are back to performing the way they were anticipated in the roles they were brought in/kept to perform. The problem is that they are only effective in pretty limited roles. Neither Farmer nor Margot hits RHP worth a damn at this point and there are a lot more RHP in MLB. With such a limited roster, it's a little tough to carry 2 specialists like this and not have them get exposed. Particularly in how our LH hitters have done (or failed to do) against RHP this season. Easier to have Farmer as a bench option to come in against a tough LHP later in games if you have Ed Julien raking against RHP, or Margot doing the same when you have Wallner on a roll. Which was certainly the plan at the start of the season, and Margot & Farmer were both expected to be better defensive options than those 2 players as well. Early in the year no one held up their end of the bargain. We've been lucky Buxton has been healthy enough to play extensively in CF, because Margot hasn't looked like a good option there regularly. (I think he's looked better in the OF lately, but it's not crazy at all to prefer Castro or Martin out there) happy to see the twins not get annihilated by LHP so easily now, and Farmer and Margot have certainly helped with that recently. Concerned that their inability to hit their weight against RHP still makes them more of a liability than a true asset.
  21. jmlease1
    You've made it very clear that a) you think the front office doesn't value defense, b) you highly value defense, c) you don't respect the front office for caring about power production from prospects, and d) you think the Dodgers are much better at developing prospects than the Twins. But unless Miller can hit better than this the front office didn't blow anything. Miller's never had an OPS over .700 in his career, and there's little to no evidence that the Dodgers have done anything to significantly improve him as a player. He looks like the exact same player the Twins had: a good glove, no-hit shortstop.
  22. jmlease1
    I would expect most guys need some adjustment time in their first stint at a higher level, but we'll see where Doncon lands at the end of the season. If he's able to show similar power to what he flashed in Ft. Myers it's a good sign. I still don't expect Doncon to stick at SS, though. Miller had a hot stretch when he hit 4 HRs in 3 games at the end of April/beginning of May...since then he's been kinda rough at the plate again: fairly poor OB%, only 7 xbhs in 46 games since the HR barrage, and his OPS has been on a real slide back down under .700. not great for repeating High A. he might still make it because the glove is excellent, but he's likely to just get overwhelmed at the plate unless something changes and not many teams can carry a no-hit defensive specialist. I suspect this is why the twins were willing to deal him.
  23. jmlease1
    Oakland does have some talent; there are some good hitters over there and their bullpen is quality. The starting pitching, on the other hand...injuries, poor performance and hope that a guy like Hogan Harris has figured it out? oof.
  24. jmlease1
    Julien had a good week, so hopefully he's getting himself re-set and back to being the quality hitter he's shown he can be. I think it's fair to have him show it for a few more weeks, though: selective aggression, patience, and making consistent contact when he swings. Development paths aren't always linear. Doncon seems to be settling in at Cedar Rapids, and it'll be interesting to see how he finishes the season. He's still getting most of his time at SS, but they are playing him at 2B and 3B as well. Hopefully he can show a little more pop in the bat, but I'm always happy when I see guys hitting triples.
  25. jmlease1
    Wallner has better range than he looks; he's a player that might not pass the eye test but is actually respectable enough out there. he'll be far better in RF where he belongs, though. Ratings seem about right overall. Correa won't rate as highly as he used to because of the rule changes that don't let him play as far back as his arm would normally allow but he's still a quality defender at SS. Julien was trending up towards average to me, but I have no illusions that he's a plus defender. I expect to see Buxton ranking fairly well next time these are published? It'll be interesting to see how Lewis does. he seems to have the tools but needs more time so that they can play up and he doesn't have to think as much but react and go more. not sure where his ceiling is defensively. but betting against Royce Lewis seems like a fools errand...
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