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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    It'll be really interesting to see where Royce Lewis lands after a full season, and whether or not he can make it through a season injury-free. (he hasn't played anywhere near a full season since 2019, so it's more than fair to be concerned) It's fair to expect a little regression this season...because he was playing at an all-star level last season! There's room for him to still be pretty dang great even if he slips back a little as the league adjusts to him and he has to start adjusting back. But there's a lot to like in his performance from last season: he still took walks and didn't just hack at everything. He got better at 3B as the season went along. The work-ethic and attitude are fantastic. The depth behind him is good: Farmer and Castro can fill in short-term easily, and Lee is projected to be superior defensively at 3B and his bat certainly looks quality. I think Miranda is not much of an option there any longer; he struggled defensively before and with the lingering shoulder problems it's hard to see him being able to make those throws. 1B seems to be more of his destiny (though it's important to remember that his preferred position is actually 2B, not that he's jumping in front of Julien or Lee there either). I'm pretty happy to pencil Mr. Grand Slam into the lineup every day at 3B and letting him cook. Getting another 70 games of Royce Lewis on the Twins this season is one of the big areas where they can be better than last season, and I'm frankly just excited for him to get to show his talent. Hoping for good health for a good dude.
  2. jmlease1
    the other reason farmer is still around is his high levels of positional flexibility. he can play any position in the infield (he's even the emergency 3rd catcher) and is still probably our best option to play SS behind Correa if needed. He's even viable to run out to LF in a pinch. There's a ton of value in that, especially if he can keep thumping LHP pitching effectively; when you don't have to make a corresponding defensive move when using a player as a pinch hitter, it keeps your bench available for another move if needed. It's part of why Castro is so useful late in games, even if he's only an average-ish offensive player: he can come in and pinch-run, make some noise on the bases and then take whatever position is needed in the field. Farmer brings some of the same. Vazquez was probably the harder one to swallow: he had such a rough year at the plate that it dragged his overall value way down. But he was still quality defensively, and it seems likely that he helped Jeffers grow behind the plate as well. I think Vazquez is back based on risk-avoidance: while the twins might have felt ok about a a catching combo of jeffers and Camargo, the lack of anything proven behind them probably wasn't a risk they were willing to take. It's pretty remarkable that jeffers and vazquez were the only two guys behind the plate at all in 2023 and they reasonably thought they could be in a lot of trouble if they moved vazquez. The poor return opportunity certainly didn't help; this FO doesn't seem to like letting go of players they think have value for less than what they think they are worth. Happy to have them both back.
  3. jmlease1
    It's not a very inspiring list. Lot of guys who look like they are washed up (Grienke, Cueto, Keuchel) or are coming off significant injuries/haven't seemingly bounced back from a significant injury (Syndergaard, Odorizzi, Boyd, Velasquez, Clevinger) plus the ancient wonder of Rich Hill. On a minor league contract? Some of these guys might fit. but if Desclafani isn't ready by opening day I'd rather have Varland than anyone on this list. Syndergaard or Odorizzi probably have the best chance to get it back together, but I'm sure they both want MLB deals. I don't think I'd give it to them. (the less said about Clevinger the better, IMHO)
  4. jmlease1
    I feel like it's going to take a significant injury to have a non-roster hitter make much of an impact, if any. Guys like Larnach, Martin, Camargo, and Severino are well-positioned to step in for the short-term dings players pick up during the season, and we having even mentioned Brooks Lee who will likely be pushing for a chance. Martin (and Lee) also has a lot of positional flexibility, which limits the opportunities that someone like Helman might normally get a shot at. For Goodrum, Prato, or Helman to even have a chance to make a significant contribution will likely require not just one substantial injury but a second one at a similar position. The 40-man has tightened up with the season approaching, so without players moving on to the 60-day IL there's just not a lot of room and it seems like a lot of room at the back will be grabbed by pitchers. Pleased to have this kind of depth in AAA...but honestly I'm hoping not to see these guys at Target Field.
  5. jmlease1
    Is the question "what is the biggest question at 2B in 2024" or "when will Brooks Lee be in MLB and where will he play?" because I don't think they're the same question at all. The biggest questions at 2B in 2024 are: will Julien continue to improve defensively, will Julien get any opportunities vs LHP to see if he can improve there, can Farmer effectively punish LHP when he does play and hold up against RHP, and can Julien make a little more contact when he does swing at pitches in the zone? You might notice that Brooks Lee isn't involved in any of those. Because if Julien is hitting like he did last season and fielding like he did at the end of the year, the only way Brooks Lee comes up to play 2B in 2024 is going to be based on injury. Maybe it's Julien going down, or Kirilloff getting hurt and Julien moving to 1B. Lewis getting hurt again (please, no!) and Lee jumping in at 3B. And that's ok. I'm a huge Brooks Lee fan; absolutely thrilled that we were able to draft him and I think he's going to be an excellent player for the Twins. But last season was his first full season as a pro, and he didn't exactly light AAA (which was a hitter's environment) on fire. We don't need to be looking to clear space for Lee to play in MLB this year; space will likely make its own way through injury or ineffectiveness as it almost always does. 2025 might be where the tougher decisions will happen...but 2024 performance will probably dictate some of that as well.
  6. jmlease1
    Well, he's probably not there for that long with Lee waiting in the wings, but calling Julien "lousy" seems a bit harsh: he wasn't great defensively at 2B, but he a) wasn't awful, and b) got quite a bit better as the season progressed. Farmer is more than solid defensively at 2B, Castro is fine there as well, so there's plenty of depth. With Lee, Martin, Schobel, Keaschall in the pipeline as well 2B is well-stocked. So, no: we won't miss Arraez greatly. Julien and Arraez had almost identical OPS+ last season and we were able to get the front-line starter the team desperately needed. We would miss Pablo Lopez a heck of a lot more. Maybe it's time to move on regarding Arraez, eh?
  7. jmlease1
    interesting year. There's almost always someone you didn't expect to make the team that makes the team out of spring training...but it's hard to find one this season absent an injury. the position players are set unless someone gets hurt; even if Miranda absolutely destroys every baseball he meets, he's not getting a job out of spring training unless Kirilloff or lewis pull up lame or something. Larnach could show mastery of curveball destruction (for the first time), but isn't getting an opportunity unless Wallner or kepler can't go. Starters are set with Lopez, Ober, Ryan, Paddack, and deSclafani; Varland could add another 2 mph to his fastball and he's still not getting the nod unless someone else is dinged up. Last bullpen spot might be it. I expect it to be Staumont's if he's healthy. I have a hunch they're not going to take a long man north this season, at least not at the start, and will try to have some of their middle relievers throw more than 3 outs when a starter doesn't get past the 5th. it's a good and deep roster. There are some real ifs that will determine if this is a good team or a real contender, mostly health-related. (Buxton, Lewis, Correa, Kirilloff, Paddack, DeSclafani, Stewart come to mind) the others are things like : which Max Kepler do we get, 1st half or 2nd? how much (if any) will Wallner drop off? Do Ryan/Ober have another gear? Should be fun to figure out. but right now, not much heat in a positional battle anywhere.
  8. jmlease1
    He really has had a messed up development track: between trades, the pandemic, getting pushed up levels, and some injuries it's been a pretty rocky road for the dude. But the good news is he's also just turned 23 this season. I still like his talent and if adjusting his release point helps his velocity and he can still sharpen his command, then he's got a chance. Right now he's somewhere in the 7th-9th place in potential Twins starters IMHO (clearly behind Varland, but could be ahead or behind guys like Festa or Headrick) and I'm looking forward to seeing how he responds in spring training and starting the season in AAA. he's showed he can be effective, but he needs to command his pitches and not hand out too many free passes. when he has that BB/9 down closer to 3 he looks a heck of a lot better than when it climbs over 4.
  9. jmlease1
    the prospect they got in return seems fine, I was just a fan of Miller's glove at a position the Twins have had some trouble finding guys who could really be plus defenders at for some time. And let's be fair to Miller: career .644 OPS, which he basically was in high-A last season as well: not .600. Is that 44 pts of OPS enough to think he can hit his weight in MLB? Maybe not, but the glove is legit. he hasn't hit well at all in the minors, but he's also just turned 21. I'm mostly just worried the Margot, who is clearly slowing down, won't be good enough in the field or at the plate to be worth the ABs he could get. I'm less worried that the Twins have missed out on spotting a sudden increase in Miller's hit tool, but I did like his glove. Maybe DeAndrade is a better fielder than I think.
  10. jmlease1
    I'm unenthusiastic about this move. As insurance against a significant Buxton injury I guess it adds to the depth, but I don't see Margot really being the kind of lefty-masher we'd like to see as an OF option. He's gone from a quality defender to a not-so quality defender over the last three seasons and while he does have splits in his career that favor hitting against LHP, it's not like he's been consistently great at it. I'll be concerned that he's going to be one of those veteran players than if he struggles out the gate will keep getting chance after chance or more playing time than he merits with a better option available in Martin (or even Larnach) staying buried in the minors. TB sure seemed to want to get out from under his contract, and LAD barely assigned him a uniform before moving him out. It's a little concerning. I guess this also means the Twins are feeling certain that Miller won't hit? they might be right, but his glove seemed like it was worth keeping in the system. It's hardly a disaster, but I'm not feeling very inspired by this move.
  11. jmlease1
    Paparesta's ability to keep Buxton, Correa, Lewis, and Kirilloff on the field will be his big sign-posts for success this season. All three have had significant injury issues, and while Correa was able to keep playing and got healthy by the end of the season he was unquestionably hampered for most of the year. It's probably not fair to judge him on his ability to keep 4 guys who have struggled with durability playing and playing well...but it's going to be the key question this year for position players. Despite moving on from Polanco, Gordon, and possibly Taylor the Twins still have good depth amongst their position players with a quality bench and prospects ready to step forward. We have 2 catchers we can count on in MLB plus a prospect in AAA who looks ready to take on some of the burden if needed. Castro and Farmer provide a lot of flexibility even if they might be overstretched as every day players, and Austin Martin and Brooks Lee are high quality prospects who also seem ready for trials in MLB. (not to mention guys like Miranda, Severino, or Helman). Staring pitching is the other area where you hope Paparesta can help keep guys whole, because that is an area where they are a little thinner on proven guys. Lopez was a horse last season and hopefully Ryan learned his lesson about trying to hide an injury. (maybe the biggest knock on the new trainer, that he wasn't able to instill enough trust in the program that Ryan still thought not telling anyone and trying to play through it was a good idea?) but Ober has had issues before and Paddack and DeSclafani are both coming off a lot of missed time. Team has enough relief depth that while making sure Duran and Stewart stay healthy is obviously a priority, there's a ton of depth in the relief corps going into the season.
  12. jmlease1
    Festa has the stuff and the pitches to be successful in MLB, and I expect to see him in 2024. I wouldn't be surprised if he wobbles a bit in his first taste, but that's also not the sort of thing that will necessarily downgrade him. What will be interesting to me is how he does with his command in AAA. If he can get the BBs down to 3 or so per 9 then his stuff will play and he's be on a great path to be in the rotation in 2025. And if AAA has the same tight automatic zone as last season, then if he's able to compete effectively there and command his pitches then he'll be looking up. Festa does a great job of keeping the ball in the park and he's not super hittable. He hunts Ks effectively and has the pitches to get really good hitters out. But he's got to sharpen that command and avoid too many free passes. I'll be watching his WHIP this season to see where he's landing. I think Canterino has the stuff to be more dominant, and Raya might be as well, but until Canterino shows he can stay healthy and Raya shows he can throw 5+ innings consistently then Festa is the best prospect we have to add to the rotation in the near term. Hope one of these promising starters can transition into the rotation for next season.
  13. jmlease1
    The real question for Paddack is going to be what is his primary 3rd pitch and will he find effectiveness with it against RH batters. The fastball is good enough (especially if he's able to sustain a little more velocity on it) but if hitters can sit on it because his curve/cutter/slider isn't sharp enough that someone sitting fastball can still react to it, then he's going to have some issues. The changeup is quite good, and effective against LH batters, but he hasn't been able to consistently nail that other off-speed pitch, especially against RH. Keith Law should have still considered him a rotation option for the Twins, and shouldn't have been such a d!ck about it when he was called on it...but there's a reason why Paddack was available when the Twins got him, and it wasn't just the elbow. Paddack has flirted with the cutter before (didn't work), a slider (not enough evidence), and has varying results with the curveball. If the staff gets one of these to work consistently (especially against RH hitters), then I think Paddack is going to have a heck of a season. If it's only moderately successful, then he'll be fine but not great (and a bullpen candidate late in the season), and if none of them really work, then he's going to be a meh 5th starter and we'll all be looking for Varland or Festa to take his spot.
  14. jmlease1
    Financially, there might be low risk, but he's still a 33 year-old starter who hasn't been in MLB in 3 years, so that's a lot of risk in whether he can be effective at this point in his career. (And let's not pretend he's been consistently great for many years; he was great in 2018, and back down in 2019. He was great in 2020...for 11 starts. he was very good in 2021, but had a big split between his FIP and his ERA, so...how good would he have finished the year if he'd hadn't imploded?) And that's without the PR risk associated with signing a player with his...history. Negative publicity is a real thing that can cause problems both on and off the field. (how happy do you think Correa, Buxton, Jeffers, and the rest of the Twins pitchers would be about having to answer Bauer questions every day for months?) So there's clubhouse risk as well. This isn't fantasy baseball. not interested.
  15. jmlease1
    I'm sure they didn't budget based on getting 85-90% of their TV deal, but they also shouldn't have budgeted based on getting 15% either. Regardless, they're getting 80-90% of last year's TV deal in revenue and one would think they would be at least holding steady if not increasing in tickets, merch, concessions etc after last year's very successful season and a group of highly marketable players. I'm pretty comfortable saying the Twins are going to make a significant profit this season if they keep their payroll as is. I'll never be able to prove it, of course, and no one will really be able to prove it going the other way either...but the indicators suggest I'm right. And if ever there was a time to take a loss (which they would write off anyways) on a franchise that keeps increasing in value, it's now. If the Twins are valued at $1.4B by Forbes now, they'll be valued at $1.5B or more next year, so it's not like an operating loss really harms ownership, even if there is one. especially measured against the many years where they assuredly turned an operating profit while experiencing substantial growth in valuation.
  16. jmlease1
    It's hard to say, since MLB teams (with the exception of Atlanta) are notorious about not letting anyone see their books. So while TV revenue probably went down 1`5-20% for the Twins we have no idea where any of the other revenue sources are sitting. But just based on tv revenue, we're looking at a drop of $10-15M and a payroll reduction of $25M. Considering the Twins keep saying roughly 50% of revenue goes towards team payroll...ownership might be pocketing anywhere from $10-20M back to "the bottom line". I've been in the "as long as payroll is in the middle of the pack, I'm not going to complain too much" group. I don't expect them to have a top 5 payroll or even top 10. But I also don't expect them to be drifting back down to the 20's either. We're $35M below league average according to Spotrack, $24M below if you only consider 26-man rosters. The Pohlads can do better and should do better. Signing one of the "Boras Four" would make a difference. They paid $36M for the team, it's worth at least $1.4B right now, and they've had a lot of years where they made money off the club. They got an amazing new stadium paid for mostly by tax payers, and the team is build to contend right now. Pohlads deserve all the stick they're going to get for this if they don't make a significant move. not that they'll care: they'll still be insanely rich.
  17. jmlease1
    I'm guessing that MAT's agent is seriously considering holding to see if there's a significant injury in spring training that will improve his market at this point? It's interesting to see what ends up happening for the "Boras Four" and whether they're able to find the contracts they want with the teams they prefer. Sometimes the market doesn't give you what you want, even for Boras. I think the Twins are more than comfortable being the safe landing for one of these guys on a pillow contract (a Correa-type deal where it's "officially" 3 years, but likely to be a 1 year because of an opt-out) and if they spent the kind of money needed to get it done it would certainly help turn things around from a PR standpoint. Not really holding out hope, though. I think Boras was holding on these guys on the belief that settling the Diamond bankruptcy would open up the market more and get multiple teams bidding. But there's a real possibility that those same teams who were in payroll-cutting mode stay that way and pocket the cash, much like the Twins seem to be doing. I mean, the poor billionaires took a hit during the pandemic year, won't anyone think of their bottom line?!? (#sarcasm)
  18. jmlease1
    Lopez has shown that he can put together incredible, dominant games where he can shut down any team. He's absolutely a number one starter, an ace by almost any definition. To contend for a Cy, he'll need to string some of those dominant games together to build a narrative too. He only had 2 stretches where he had a few poor outings bunched together; dropping those off is the other part to it. (2 weeks in May/June where he had Game Scores under 50 in 3 out of 4 outings, and then a relative meh finish to the season, with only one really standout performance in the last 7) I think he has all of the qualities to keep improving as a pitcher. I think he'll be a serious contender, and that's great for the Twins.
  19. jmlease1
    I'm guessing Staumont gets the last spot if he's healthy, Alcala would be my bet to land it if he's not.
  20. jmlease1
    I appreciate that the guys at BP try to be clear about what the PECOTA projections really mean and what they're looking at. they aren't afraid to talk about what it means for someone like Julien and why the system is going to downgrade him when his performance on the field and the kind of hitter he is suggests otherwise. There's a good chance PECOTA is wrong about him this year because he's an outlier of a player and projection systems are notoriously bad at handling outliers. I do think it's hilarious that they did a projection on Emma, who I doubt spends any time on the active roster at Target Field this season. He's never taken an AB above A-ball, so a 2024 debut seems silly, even if he's a legit top 50 prospect. Kinda fun to see Max Kepler compared to Hall of Famer Harry Hooper. I'd say Hooper is a bit of a marginal pick, with a lot of good seasons, but few that were even all-star level; he never made an all-star team but probably deserved a couple. And he played well for a long time, but he wasn't as good another Boston RF who isn't in the Hall: Dwight Evans. Kepler's a step down from Hooper career-wise; Hooper was good for 3 bWAR or better most years and Kepler has been more in the 2.5 range, but it's a fun little comp.
  21. jmlease1
    The reality is there aren't very many positional battles for the Twins this year, There might have been a little more of a fight in LF if Gordon has stuck on the roster (it was his best position defensively and if he's pulling the ball effectively he can hit enough to be a positive there) but with him gone it's Wallner's job unless he gets hurt in Spring Training. And it should be: he did more than enough last season to show he deserves to be the default guy there. I was particularly impressed that even when Wallner had a rough stretch where he wasn't making contact and was racking up a bunch of Ks, he didn't fall into the trap of expanding the zone. He stayed disciplined, kept taking walks, and the contact came back around for him. He's going to frustrate people this season, but he's also going to have big games and big moments. He's better defensively than the eye test, and I pity the fool who tests his arm. Wallner was really good last season. he might slip back a little as teams really develop pitching plans to attack him, but disciplined hitters survive and adapt, and I think he's one of those guys. And the ball explodes off his bat.
  22. jmlease1
    agreed. at a certainly point you have to stop insuring against worst-case scenarios. 13 pitchers is an absurdly large number to begin with, but having one that you don't use and try to avoid having pitch? blech.
  23. jmlease1
    I think this is a non-issue if 2-3 of your guys in the bullpen can go more than 1 inning without needing a week off afterwards. And if the Twins bullpen really has no one that can throw 2 innings in a time of need and come back and throw another inning after 2 days of rest, then we have a problem. Because there's going to be starts where the starter doesn't get into the 5th and the bullpen is going to need to get 4-6 innings done to get through the game, win or loss. but we're going to have 8 freakin' guys in the bullpen, they really can't all be 1 inning only dudes, right? Having a long man who only pitches in mop-up duty or disasters can be a waste of a spot, and roster spots are precious. I'd rather have guys who the manager wants to use. And if you roster 2 guys who can throw 2 innings without needing a week off you can do without a "long man" who just eats up 4 innings in a lost cause game that might only happen twice a month.
  24. jmlease1
    I would be thrilled to have 3 of the top 40 starters in MLB. We will win a lot of games that way if they stay healthy. I think the bullpen looks strong to start the season, but relievers are fungible enough for all but the absolute best (like Duran) that it's hard to be sure. and projection can be challenging. I do think we have solid reinforcements ready to go as well, though so if some of them show signs of not really having it we're pretty well positioned to adjust. We will miss Sonny Gray, who was a bulldog and threw a lot of great innings for us, but it's not like it was 2-3 years ago when we had 2 starters and prayer going into the season.
  25. jmlease1
    I'll admit, i'm surprised he passed through waivers, but maybe the timing got it done. but I'm also a little surprised his agent wasn't trying to get another team to claim him to get his client a fresh start with a new club, since things went a little sideways last year. But I'm not unhappy about keeping him in the organization and I hope he can get healthy and figure it out. I don't think there's much chance for the spring training invitees to jump on the 26-man roster, but I've been surprised before and could be again. It just seems like there's pretty good depth and a bit of a pecking order established by the 40-man that's going to be tougher to crack until necessary; if anything I'd be less surprised if a last-minute FA fell into our laps. The front office has been very open to grabbing someone late and doesn't mind being used as a safe harbor for a 1 year deal if said player didn't find the long-term deal they were hoping for...
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