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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Yeah, I feel like we haven't talked much about Winokur this year (maybe in part because of how Keaschall has risen this season) but he's having a pretty solid season, especially considering it's his first full season of pro ball. He's got some things to work on, like making more consistent contact, but his walk rate is also pretty impressive for someone of his age and experience. That 18-5 steals/CS ratio works just fine too. Culpepper seems to have passed the Gleeman Lemon Test too. Nice to see the new pick off to a good start.
  2. jmlease1
    It was his first game back against a LHP. He's been looking good at the plate again in AAA, so maybe give him a few games before you throw him on the trash heap.
  3. jmlease1
    Minor league deal, with no promises or promotion? Sure. I'd be perfectly happy to have him stashed in saint Paul as injury insurance. but I have no interest in signing any starters that we can't be confident of them raising the ceiling on the rotation. Unless their better than Ober, Ryan, or Lopez...no thanks. And DeSclafani isn't better than any of those guys, healthy or not. Yes, injuries will happen. Yes, the 2025 Twins will have to run out somewhere between 7-10 starters. But I'd much rather have SWR, or Festa, or Matthews as the 5th guy in the rotation than DeSclafani, who is 34 now, and has been neither good nor healthy since 2021. It's a poor use of limited resources, because roster spots are just as precious as dollars. Absent a trade, our rotation to start 2025 is going to be Lopez, Ober, Ryan, Paddack, and one of Festa/SWR/Matthews/Varland. how does that get better with DeSclafani in the mix? If he's rehabbing in AAA...maybe. Otherwise, no.
  4. jmlease1
    A good win. I was impressed with Ober's ability to battle through 6 when he wasn't at his best and had wobbled through the early innings. He kept it together and didn't let things get out of hand and we squeezed out just enough runs to get over. While the offense wasn't exactly sharp, they did do well in getting runners on base and taking walks. 6 in a game is good work, and getting the go-ahead through against Yates is impressive: he's been really really good this season. But walks will haunt you... Congrats to Kyle Farmer, who has been very sharp since coming back off the IL. It's been a rough season for him, but sure would be nice if he stays hot down the stretch and punishes LHP.
  5. jmlease1
    I just think you overrate the competitive advantage for Gagne's hitting when the AL had Cal Ripken, Alan Trammel, Tony Fernandez, and Julio Franco all playing SS, you know? Sure, it's a real advantage over the Angel Salazar's of the world, but not much of one against an Alfredo Griffin-type in '87.
  6. jmlease1
    Greg Gagne's career OPS+ was 83. He never had a season where he had an OPS+ over 100 (you know, average). Slightly more than half of his career bWAR was because of his defense. While he accumulated some decent value on offense for the time, it's because so many SS in his era couldn't hit their weight and they were skinny dudes. He wasn't a particularly good hitter, didn't take many walks, and was a pretty bad baserunner (look at that caught stealing %! ugh.) And I say this as someone who liked Greg Gagne a lot. but competitive advantage is why you leave Royce at 3B to figure it out longer than this. If he can hit like this and provide solid defense it gives you more options to have a deeper and stronger offense.
  7. jmlease1
    Yates doesn't throw lefty, but he'd still be a great add. I'd be very interested in Eovaldi or Scherzer, especially considering our injury situations. Less interested in any of the other RH relievers or Heaney (who hasn't actually been that good). but I kind of doubt that the Rangers will actually waive a bunch of guys or even if they do that the twins will even get a shot on some of these guys because of waiver priority.
  8. jmlease1
    I tend to agree on Lewis, especially because he missed so much time this season. It's not an indictment on him to not get promoted mid-season, especially when he's only had 9 starts in AA. he looks like he's starting to get himself back on track and the most important thing for him this season is to finish the year strong and healthy. he'll be in AAA soon enough. His last few outings have been good and it looks like he's starting to bring the hits down, but 11 BBs in his last 20 1/3 innings says to me that he's still not all the way there yet.
  9. jmlease1
    Players learn a new position in MLB all the time, though. And LF or 1B would be completely new positions for Royce (not sure he's ever played either in the minors), so are you suggesting we pull him down in AAA to learn LF?!? Royce hasn't been great at 3B, but he's been about as good as Miranda was in his first MLB season there...and Miranda has improved substantially with his defense over time. Patience is in order.
  10. jmlease1
    Miranda has been good at 3B this season and the metrics reflect it. he's very much improved his play there from his first year in the majors. but he's also played 63 games there this season 2/3 of his total, which has to have helped. Consistent time at a position matters especially for guys who are relatively inexperienced there. remember: Miranda spent most of his time at 2B in the minors and it was his preferred position and he didn't move off it until 2022.
  11. jmlease1
    Way too early to be looking to move Lewis down the defensive spectrum, and I hate seeing any speculation about the OF related to him because that was SUCH a THING on this site. He's struggled defensively this season, but was quality there last year. Seems much more likely that his problems at 3B this season have more to do with injuries, lack of playing time, and small sample size than any kind of definitive statement that "Royce Can't Play 3B". Royce only has 200 innings at 3B this season. Even if he stays healthy the rest of the year he's probably only going to get another 250 innings there this year. Too soon to panic, too soon to make the call based on such a small sample. He's got the talent to play there and the drive to succeed. Patience is required. And please, no more conversations about moving him to the OF!
  12. jmlease1
    I say pass. We're talking 6-8 starts max at this point, not 15-20. Yes, our depth is being tested but so far the young guys are responding to the call. Who has more upside, Rich Hill or David Festa? Rich Hill or Zebby Matthews? Lopez & Ober are locks, SWR should be as well, having stepped up and delivered in the back of the rotation. I'd rather roll with Festa and one of either Matthews or Varland until Paddack comes back. (Last I checked, Paddack wasn't out for the season, right?) If it was June and we had 2 starters down and the rookies were looking wobbly, I'd be more interested but we're talking about hoping that Ancient Rich Hill has enough gas and guile left to fool people for 6-8 starts over a Varland or Matthews that can throw 97 mph. Roll with the young kids.
  13. jmlease1
    Maybe Lewis or Raya. But more likely they fall back on Boushley, Henriquez, or even Dobnak if they have to keep going through starters and no one comes back. It's going to be a problem if Varland totally bombs or someone else gets hurt before Paddack comes back, but there aren't very many teams that aren't going to have a problem if they're on their 10th or 11th choice for the rotation. Twins are a little tight right now because of Ryan's injury, but they've still had 106 out of 119 starts made by 5 guys.
  14. jmlease1
    Winder looking comfortable throwing 2 innings is a great development. You have to expect that the Twins will try and protect some of these young starters so having a reliever who can bridge things to the late innings is important. Winder and Sands are both doing better this year and look like solid middle relief fits.
  15. jmlease1
    Matthews did great. Love seeing that kind of performance from a rookie. He's got some things to work on, but the platform to build from is strong: he was locating pretty well, showed he had the stuff to miss bats in the zone, and got the job done. Nice to see the offense come out in force to support the rookie too. scoring runs in 6 out of the 8 innings the bats went up is impressive. Everybody except Santana had a hit, and Carlos drew 2 walks. Thought Miranda looked good at the plate in particular, and it'll be great if he's back to slashing the ball all over. Great win; Twins needed to win this series after the split with Cleveland. Here's hoping they get the sweep!
  16. jmlease1
    Seriously. It's not like the whole team are rookies. Might be tougher with a bunch of young starters, but it's doable. (and encouraging for the future) Festa's gotten better after a wobbly first 2 outings to be plenty competitive in his next 4. SWR has been quality (I'll take the 110 ERA+ all day) and for those expecting him to fall apart: his ERA and FIP are almost identical, so to paraphrase Denny Green "He is who we thought he was!" And I'm not mad about Varland or Matthews as being the next set of reinforcement. Much better than most seasons. It sucks to lose Joe Ryan, who was having a good season, but we're not chucking out no-hopers here.
  17. jmlease1
    yes, imagine how great it would look if the front office never missed on a single draft pick and no one ever got hurt. This is, of course, a record that no team has now, nor has ever had. (also? Prato was a 7th round pick who is in AAA. I mean, come on. We're gonna take a poke at the FO for not turning a 7th round pick into MLB gold?)
  18. jmlease1
    Their ability to find pitchers with growth potential has been an excellent use of the later rounds of the draft. You can see a lot of obvious markers for why this is working: these guys at smaller collegiate programs might not have had that much exposure to elite training resources and/or coaching. they have measurables that allow for projection. But the twins are also doing it in volume: they're not just drafting 1-2 of these kinds of college pitchers per draft, they're getting 4-5 of these guys, so that when they miss on one they still have more outs. Some of these guys are going to struggle if/when they reach MLB, but I'd rather rely on a stream of young pitchers rising up through the minors to move into the rotation than throwing $8-12M on mediocre veteran 5th starters that are subject to sunk cost fallacies if they flame out. there seems to be a fairly good balance of risk/reward on the picks they're making. It'll be interesting to see if other teams start adopting this strategy and if the twins will still be able to sustain development once there's more competition?
  19. jmlease1
    Totally get it. I think my point was more that you can reasonably put someone as crazy talented as Soto 8th...and that's awesome. He's a huge upside pitcher and in many years over the past 20 would have been top 4 without having really done anything yet.
  20. jmlease1
    Lot of good news in this report. Culpepper and DeBarge has good starts to their careers in Ft. Myers; early days but nice to see them look comfortable and produce at Ft. Myers out the gate. (passing the Lemon Test as Gleeman like to say) Schobel has had a tough season so it's good to see him have a good run. He's hit a bit of a wall in AA, and it really is a level where guys can flame out against top competition. But he jumped up fast, so maybe with a little time and development he can get back on track. Really happy to see Raya and Lewis go 6 and have excellent starts. Bummer about Keaschall needing TJ. I know it's not as bad for position players and the recovery time is quite a bit less, but he's really been putting together a great season and had risen in the prospect rankings. Hope it's not a trend.
  21. jmlease1
    That's a pretty fun list! Soto is incredibly talented and you have him 8th...and I can't say that you're definitely wrong. (Personally, I have to drop Prielipp down the rankings until he has something resembling a healthy season, but I recognize the talent) Twins have done a good job of drafting enough pitchers with skills they could develop in the later rounds to put a volume of pitchers into the organization where guys can emerge. The competition level to move up in the ranks for the Twins is higher now, and it sure seems like fewer guys are moving up a level on scholarship.
  22. jmlease1
    An excellent win. I love beating KC and they're certainly not going away this year. freakin' Bobby Witt Jr is a beast. Isbel has been meh offensively...but not against the twins! (If it makes anyone feel better, he's beaten up on St. L, AZ, Cle, NYY as well) Singer is having an excellent season and just laid waste to Chicago over his last 3 starts, so it was great to hammer him and give Pablo a solid lead to work with. I was a little nervous after he gave up runs in each of the first two innings. Lewis and Wallner are carrying the offense right now. Hopefully they can keep it up while other guys get healthy and/or fight their way out of slumps. (encouraging signs from Kepler with 2 hits last night?) Starting the series with a win is great. Lot easier to win the series that way!
  23. jmlease1
    And Polanco has put up an 88 OPS+ and a 0.5 bWAR, and has been hurt this season. For comparison, Ed Julien has basically done the same production in 100 fewer ABs and was sent down. This may have been why Polanco had much lower trade value than we Twins fans had thought/hoped this offseason. Gonzalez had a modest improvement this season in high A, but has also dealt with injuries which may have hampered his power production. He did ok as a 20-year old in high A, but has things to work on.
  24. jmlease1
    Tough loss. SWR pitched quite well, normally a couple of solo shots aren't going to hurt you much. He did a nice job of being around the zone and it got him some extra strikes. Offense just wasn't going. The Jeffers out at 3B really hurt, but it was a difficult read and Kwan is an excellent defender and made the play with a perfect throw. Too bad, because bases loaded and zero outs is pretty different than first & second and 1 out. A little more offense and we would have stolen that one. Shame to waste such a good pitching performance. Nice job by Winder as well in finishing the game off and letting the rest of the bullpen get the day off. Sure would be nice if he can be a 2 inning guy on a consistent basis; I feel good about the bullpen even with the injuries, but having a guy who can give 2 good innings when a starter only goes 4-5 is sort of what's been missing here. Fewer games where you need 4 relievers to finish it out helps keep everyone fresh and ensures you have one of your best arms available
  25. jmlease1
    It's going to see how Severino finishes the season. He's in a slump right now, but if he can pull himself out of it and finish August strong then he'll be giving himself a chance to earn a job next season. I think he's been more than a 1-month guy (he had a very good July as well) but he need to not let his season look like a bell curve. Kirilloff's star is awfully tarnished at this point. A switch-hitting 1B with good power potential and a decent eye at the plate could play up if he can make enough contact and continue to develop defensively. I certainly like him as a depth option for sure.
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