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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I think there's a decent chance that both start back in AA, just because of the crowd in Saint Paul. I'm expecting Varland to graduate into the bullpen and SWR has done enough to earn a presumption for MLB rotation in 2025, but Ryan and Paddack are going to be back so that would mean Festa, Matthews, Morris, Adams, and Nowlin might make up the initial AAA crop. That would keep Raya, Lewis, and Culpepper in AA to start. but regardless of how it shuffles out, I'm pretty excited to have that many starting pitching prospects in the high minors for 2025.
  2. jmlease1
    Is it no leash, or they're just running too far out on it? If they're needing 20+ pitches to get through every inning, then no, they're not lasting out there. Festa 72 pitches and 3 BBs in 3 2/3 SWR 69 pitches and 3 BBs in 3 Zebby 61 pitches and 2 BBs in 3 1/3 They haven't exactly been efficient lately. Festa's the only one who has done 3 scoreless to start. but this is also the Kobayashi Maru for the manager: if he leaves Festa, SWR, or Matthews out there as their pitch counts rise and they wobble through innings and they get hammered, he's a fool for not pulling them sooner as they "obviously" didn't have it; if he yanks them before they collapse and the bullpen fails, he's a fool for not rising with his starter.
  3. jmlease1
    Dang, I kind of forgot about Culpepper! I expect he'll start back in AA, but if he stays healthy he'll be Saint Paul next season as the pitching pipeline continues to roll on. Wish Walker Jenkins had more time to get acclimated to AA before the end of the season. Really wonder if they'll send him to the AFL since he missed a big chunk of time at the start of the season or if they'll just let him have an offseason. He might not have immediately set Wichita on fire, but I think he's probably ready for it next season. What a talent.
  4. jmlease1
    Hopefully we can get Correa back on the field so he can help steady the defense. He's so steady back there, so smart with his positioning that it helps everyone. he's definitely been a little more nervy for us lately, but a lot of the underlying numbers are still very good. He's had a bizarre level of balls drop in for hits when guys actually manage to put one in play lately, and you have to think that will even out. I also have to keep reminding myself that this is only his 3rd season in MLB!
  5. jmlease1
    Glad to see Cory Lewis finishing the year strong. he certainly looks like he's back in the groove and I expect we'll have him in AAA next season. It's going to be very interesting to see how the Twins figure out the back end of the rotation in MLB and staff AAA to start next season, but there should be very good depth from the jump and if/when we need starting pitcher reinforcements in MLB we're going to be drawing on real prospects again, which is exactly where we want to be. (My guess on the rotations as of right now: MLB is Lopez, Ober, Ryan, SWR, Paddack and AAA is Festa, Matthews, Morris, Adams, Lewis, Nowlin. yes, i think they'll run a 6-man in AAA. But maybe Nowlin or Lewis starts in AA. I think Varland is done being a starter; he's been passed by SWR, Festa, and Matthews and there's enough other depth that they're better off moving him to the bullpen and letting him be a force there. I'm betting Raya repeats AA at the start of the season.) That's real depth. will any of the AAA guys emerge as a playoff-caliber starter? we'll see but there's plenty to like from guys like Festa, Matthews, and Lewis. Lot of good development being done in the the minors. Now, if we could just keep the hitters healthy...
  6. jmlease1
    Glad to see Rosario healthy to finish the season. I'm a fan of his and he's had a solid enough season despite the injuries in his first crack at AA. I think winter ball might do him some good since he missed so much time. Noah Miller is showing exactly why the Twins traded him. He just can't hit much. Nice for him to get a couple of doubles, but overall he's not much of a threat at the plate and pitchers are treating him accordingly. The glove is excellent and the only reason he's in AA, but he'll be back in Tulsa next season. he's still young enough to develop into a better hitter, but he's got a big hill to climb.
  7. jmlease1
    As noted on the broadcast, Matthews appeared to be having a blister problem last night. That might have been part of his struggles last night as well as the early hook. I'll take the series win: if the Twins get back to winning series down the stretch they'll be in the playoffs for sure, where they belong. Nice to see Royce bust out last night, although it's too bad he didn't convert the Grand Slam. Missed it by THAT much. Keep grinding, boys!
  8. jmlease1
    I think this is the issue: we're seeing too many guys get thrown out where the play isn't close. If it was a bunch of close plays and the ball gets there just in time or it was a perfect strike or a great tag or something...that's one thing. Even if all of them happen to go against the team then you're talking about great plays by the other team or bad luck and it's ok. but it's not just one or two memorable ones where the guy is out easily. There's a whole litany at this point. Maybe it means that the players need to know when to take the foot off the gas earlier coming around second knowing they won't have enough in the tank to make it home...but it sure feels like Watkins needs to have better judgment and be a little more conservative in sending our fairly slow and oft-injured roster.
  9. jmlease1
    Winning is the best deodorant. Nice to see the bats get going early and often. The big blast from Farmer made a difference. Pablo looked pretty good, so it was a bit odd to see him have the wobbly inning, but still nice to see him roll through 7 with good efficiency. His velocity looks good, the movement on the sweeper is pretty nasty. I'm terrible at estimating HR distances. I would have thought that Wallner's was longer, because boy howdy that was a blast. Certainly no doubt about it!
  10. jmlease1
    Rocco Baldelli has a .529 Win % with the MN Twins (as you noted: 2019 counts). Since that fantastic season, he also had a .600 Win % in 2020, then 2 losing seasons, another playoff team in 2023 and despite the horrid stretch their in right now, the Twins are still likely to finish with a winning record and still have pretty good odds of making the playoffs. But I find it interesting that you so easily find a way to discount Baldelli's best seasons with the club? Let's take Ron Gardenhire if we want to a) do the "how's he been lately?" bit, and b) address the issue of whether Rocco would get another managing job if he wanted one, since that was the point I was trying to make anyways. Gardy had a .507 Win % with the franchise in 13 seasons. 8 winning seasons, 5 losing ones. he never cracked 60% wins in his career, though he came close a couple of times. Following the 2010 season, easily his best season in several years, the team absolutely cratered and Gardy never had another winning season as Twins manager. Rocco may have had a couple of poor seasons after his initial success, but the team also rebounded to win their first playoff series in over 20 years and first playoff game since Gardy's 3rd season as manager. YMMV on whether the Twins stuck with Gardy too long or not, but the reality is Gardy had 10 consecutive seasons to end his tenure with the franchise where they did not win a playoff game. That said, Gardy, despite his exceptionally long tenure and relationship with the Twins and being more than 15 years older than Rocco is now got another chance to manage in MLB. It didn't go well for him, but that's another matter. The case for Rocco not getting another chance to manage in MLB if the team fires him at the end of the season is basically a group of fans saying "I don't like him".
  11. jmlease1
    The fact that you think a former AL Manager of the Year with a quality record and win % and a sterling reputation around MLB won't get another chance to manage says a lot. If Rocco loses his job in the offseason, the only reason he won't manage another team is if he decides he doesn't want to do it. He made good money as a player, has made good money as a manager and doesn't need it. But if he's willing to go to Miami or Texas or Anaheim etc he'll definitely be managing again. If he wants it.
  12. jmlease1
    The real issue this team is facing right now is that they've been missing guys like Correa, Buxton, and Ryan for a long stretch now (and Ryan ain't coming back). That's a talent deficit, and it makes it harder to find room to rest guys. What I find ridiculous is this idea that the Twins need more "fire" (whatever the hell that means) or that players can't be tired because they're paid a lot. There's absolutely no way that these players don't care about the result and aren't giving their best effort; I dare anyone to call someone on the roster a malingerer and actually have anything to back it up other than being mad about their performance or because they just don't like that player's game. (hint: no one will have anything. no one.) They're struggling right now, and it sucks. The manager will probably get fired if they collapse all the way out of the playoffs, not because it's really Rocco's fault or because he's a bad manager but because it's a lot easier to change the manager than to change the players. Sometimes it even works, just getting a different voice can matter even if they're saying the same things. But unless this front office changes (and I know there are many on this site who want nothing more), the next manager won't substantively change all that much, it'll just be a change in personality.
  13. jmlease1
    Going to be a lot of starting pitching depth at AAA next season, which is great. Not going to be much room for a retread veteran there, which seems fine. Wonder if Lewis might start the season in AA just because of the crowding (and the fact that he missed a fair amount of time this year). Assuming no FA signings, the MLB rotation could be: Lopez, Ober, Ryan, SWR, and Paddack with AAA having Festa, Matthews, Morris, Raya, and Lewis (I think Varland moves to the bullpen from the jump next season). That's quite a bit of starting pitching depth. (and we still have guys like Culpepper, Adams, Jones, and Nowlin coming along) Good progress by the hitters this season in the minors, but the injuries were a bummer. Jenkins is the real deal, I keep having to remind myself that it's his first full pro season, because he's not acting like it. Thought GG and Doncon did fine in Cedar Rapids at age 20. Hopefully Keaschall comes back strong from the surgery; he was doing great before getting hurt. Emma will be the first OF called up next season, I think, and he has star power. Always interesting how you can have a ton of talent in the minors and the teams don't win, but guys cycle through quickly at times.
  14. jmlease1
    I think the Twins absolutely learned that lesson (maybe too well) about having backup and injury replacement options, which is why we acquired Margot, rather than just running with Martin. We went into this season with many options behind Buxton this season: Margot (in theory), Castro, then Martin, plus Helman, Kiersey... and of course in 2023 we had Michael A. Taylor. We're not calling up guys out of A-ball to start games on the MLB roster any longer.
  15. jmlease1
    Walker Jenkins continues to impress. Please stay healthy! I keep having to remind myself that this is his first full season in pro ball. But I'm increasingly of the opinion that he will start next season in AA. Maybe the Twins will want to see more than 35-40 games at high A, but...maybe not! He's so good.
  16. jmlease1
    I'm not sure it matters much where he starts next season; I suspect he'll be in Wichita pretty quickly even if he starts in Cedar Rapids. he's flying through the minors at his age and I expect he'll make his MLB debut in 2026. What a talent.
  17. jmlease1
    He's exceptionally well-suited to play RF, where his cannon of an arm plays up and his range is less of an issue. His speed is more than enough to cover the area, but it does take him a while to get going, so he's not going to do as well on those balls where you need a great jump to get there. that's not as important in RF, though. he'll handle the balls that he can get under just fine, and has the ability to play balls effectively off the wall and keep runners from freely advancing. It's going to be interesting to see how he manages at the plate. He's right in his physical prime so it shouldn't be a surprise that a player who has always crushed baseballs is absolutely crushing baseballs. He's hitting the ball hard, he's hitting it in the air, and it goes a long way. If he makes enough contact, he should be able to do this, for as long as he's able to catch up to fastballs. I think where things fell apart for Sano was when the injuries started to take their toll and he couldn't catch up to the good fastball up in the zone any longer, but YMMV. nothing wrong with having a player with a unique profile. Wallner has a full season's worth of MLB games under his belt now and has put up an OPS+ of 140. He's improved at the plate every season, despite the Ks. Maybe he's just a different guy?
  18. jmlease1
    I'm going to be interested to see if/where Doncon lands on the prospect list next year. He's had a solid season this year, showing real improvement over his last year with the Dodgers and earning his way up to high A at 20. He's still playing plenty of SS, which says there's still decent performance defensively. It's a bummer that he missed basically all of August, so hopefully he can get in a little more game time before the end of the minor league season, but it seems like a successful one for him. I'm guessing he starts next season in Cedar Rapids and we'll see if he can earn his way to AA by midseason. His trade partner Noah Miller got promoted to AA recently, and has struggled with the bat. While his glove is excellent, I think we can see exactly why the Twins were ready to move on from him: he's simply no threat at the plate at all. While it's a small sample size in AA so far, it looks like facing pitchers with better command is going to be a real problem: he can't buff his numbers with walks the same way, not against guys who aren't afraid to throw him a strike and have the ability to do it when they need it. He's showing no real pop in his bat and without superior contact skills, even his excellent glove isn't going to be enough. I don't think the Dodgers "fixed" anything here. he's still fairly young and could develop as a hitter, but in 3 full seasons of professional baseball, he hasn't improved at the plate. Winokur is finishing the season strong, and that's good to see. he certainly had some challenges this season, but seems to have found his power stroke again. I think he'll move up to Cedar Rapids as well next year.
  19. jmlease1
    So happy to see E-Man off the IL and playing. Hope he finishes the season strong in AAA. He was absolutely mashing it before he got hurt. I expect him to start in AAA next season but we will certainly see him in MLB in 2025. Huge talent. Good to have Laweryson pitch well, but he's really had a rough last 2 seasons. I really thought he was going to become a bullpen option for the Twins by now after he looked so good in 2022, but he wasn't very good in 2023 in AAA and got demoted to AA this year...and has somehow been worse? Oof. Outside of some injuries it's been a very good year for the farm system , I think.
  20. jmlease1
    Because as a general rule, players tend to have better results with runners on base?
  21. jmlease1
    Tight win. Not great timing for SWR to have a poor outing; while it's great that the bullpen picked him up, they've been pretty overstretched and it seems unlikely that any of our top guys are available today. Duran may not have the 104 mph velocity this season, but it's pretty ridiculous for him to be throwing a splitter at 99. My goodness. TB is down this season, but they still have guys you've never heard of that will hurt you. Nice to see Rortvedt healthy and in MLB; if he can hit like this he'll be a quality second catcher.
  22. jmlease1
    What are you talking about? Rooker got an extended look in MLB with the Twins and wasn't very good, and then couldn't make a dent with 2 other franchises before finding success in Oakland. Let's not pretend he was disrespected by the Twins. I'm happy for him, but he clearly needed to make adjustments and not play in the field. Raley is kind of the same way, but also didn't spend all that much time with the Twins (and was hurt). But he needed multiple bites at the apple in MLB with a couple of franchises before finding success, and just like Rooker, didn't find success until he was nearly 30. Not sure what Gil is doing in here, other than being lumped in as a player who the Twins had that found success somewhere else, but we dealt him from rookie ball 7 years ago. He's having a fine season now, but he's also (unsurprisingly) gotten hurt and it's taken him forever to get to success in MLB. I mean, if the point is we should be giving chances to older prospects, then you should be thrilled to see Helman come up.
  23. jmlease1
    I would disagree on Castro & Jax. The projections on Castro were about assumptions of regression, since he'd only had one season where he'd shown he could be this level of player. But I think while the Twins weren't expecting him to be an all-star pick, they did think he could be this guy again, and so did the fans. So while the projection systems might not have seen it coming, plenty of other people did. Jax elevated to a different gear this season, but he's been a quality reliever the prior two years, so I'm not sure this was really a shocker either. We'll see whether he's able to sustain this new level next season, but I'm not exactly surprised to see a reliever in his prime have a career season. SWR is the real surprise. He'd been struggling a little in AAA, the velocity had been down, he hadn't really had extended periods of dominance in the minors recently, and while I still believed in his talent, it was hard to envision this level of sustained success in MLB this early. He's been good all season, and hasn't been showing sign of fatigue. It's really impressive to see him crushing the innings projections too: he's never pitched this many innings in a season, and it's not really all that close once you add in his AAA innings from this season. Great job by him in seizing the opportunity and not letting go.
  24. jmlease1
    Glad to see Rosario looking healthy and hitting back in AA. Hoping he keeps developing, would be a nice RH OF option if he can keep sharpening his skills. He's still pretty young, so seeing him do well despite missing a lot of injury time this season is good. Ohl is someone where I think the margins might end up being too fine for him to really make it as a starter in MLB, but you never know. Development is not linear, so maybe there's still a another gear to find, and it's not like he doesn't understand how to pitch. He might have trouble finding a slot in AAA early next season just because of the depth we're projecting up there.
  25. jmlease1
    Ober's change up looked really good. He'd had a little bit of a wobbly August, so good to see him have a strong outing, though the 1st inning HR made me a little nervous. Nice to have Royce get the bomb to win it. Made up nicely for not being able to get the big hit in the first with the bases loaded. Need him to get locked in again. I'm ready to see Varland slide into the bullpen again and give them a real boost, but it's understandable after Matthews awful turn that they're not ready to move him in yet.
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