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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Totally get it. I think my point was more that you can reasonably put someone as crazy talented as Soto 8th...and that's awesome. He's a huge upside pitcher and in many years over the past 20 would have been top 4 without having really done anything yet.
  2. jmlease1
    Lot of good news in this report. Culpepper and DeBarge has good starts to their careers in Ft. Myers; early days but nice to see them look comfortable and produce at Ft. Myers out the gate. (passing the Lemon Test as Gleeman like to say) Schobel has had a tough season so it's good to see him have a good run. He's hit a bit of a wall in AA, and it really is a level where guys can flame out against top competition. But he jumped up fast, so maybe with a little time and development he can get back on track. Really happy to see Raya and Lewis go 6 and have excellent starts. Bummer about Keaschall needing TJ. I know it's not as bad for position players and the recovery time is quite a bit less, but he's really been putting together a great season and had risen in the prospect rankings. Hope it's not a trend.
  3. jmlease1
    That's a pretty fun list! Soto is incredibly talented and you have him 8th...and I can't say that you're definitely wrong. (Personally, I have to drop Prielipp down the rankings until he has something resembling a healthy season, but I recognize the talent) Twins have done a good job of drafting enough pitchers with skills they could develop in the later rounds to put a volume of pitchers into the organization where guys can emerge. The competition level to move up in the ranks for the Twins is higher now, and it sure seems like fewer guys are moving up a level on scholarship.
  4. jmlease1
    An excellent win. I love beating KC and they're certainly not going away this year. freakin' Bobby Witt Jr is a beast. Isbel has been meh offensively...but not against the twins! (If it makes anyone feel better, he's beaten up on St. L, AZ, Cle, NYY as well) Singer is having an excellent season and just laid waste to Chicago over his last 3 starts, so it was great to hammer him and give Pablo a solid lead to work with. I was a little nervous after he gave up runs in each of the first two innings. Lewis and Wallner are carrying the offense right now. Hopefully they can keep it up while other guys get healthy and/or fight their way out of slumps. (encouraging signs from Kepler with 2 hits last night?) Starting the series with a win is great. Lot easier to win the series that way!
  5. jmlease1
    And Polanco has put up an 88 OPS+ and a 0.5 bWAR, and has been hurt this season. For comparison, Ed Julien has basically done the same production in 100 fewer ABs and was sent down. This may have been why Polanco had much lower trade value than we Twins fans had thought/hoped this offseason. Gonzalez had a modest improvement this season in high A, but has also dealt with injuries which may have hampered his power production. He did ok as a 20-year old in high A, but has things to work on.
  6. jmlease1
    Tough loss. SWR pitched quite well, normally a couple of solo shots aren't going to hurt you much. He did a nice job of being around the zone and it got him some extra strikes. Offense just wasn't going. The Jeffers out at 3B really hurt, but it was a difficult read and Kwan is an excellent defender and made the play with a perfect throw. Too bad, because bases loaded and zero outs is pretty different than first & second and 1 out. A little more offense and we would have stolen that one. Shame to waste such a good pitching performance. Nice job by Winder as well in finishing the game off and letting the rest of the bullpen get the day off. Sure would be nice if he can be a 2 inning guy on a consistent basis; I feel good about the bullpen even with the injuries, but having a guy who can give 2 good innings when a starter only goes 4-5 is sort of what's been missing here. Fewer games where you need 4 relievers to finish it out helps keep everyone fresh and ensures you have one of your best arms available
  7. jmlease1
    It's going to see how Severino finishes the season. He's in a slump right now, but if he can pull himself out of it and finish August strong then he'll be giving himself a chance to earn a job next season. I think he's been more than a 1-month guy (he had a very good July as well) but he need to not let his season look like a bell curve. Kirilloff's star is awfully tarnished at this point. A switch-hitting 1B with good power potential and a decent eye at the plate could play up if he can make enough contact and continue to develop defensively. I certainly like him as a depth option for sure.
  8. jmlease1
    Hard to complain about sweeping a doubleheader (although clearly there are plenty around here who are; why so mad when we win?). Thought it was a balk, but some of the replays didn't show it well. A little silly for the manager to lose his mind on that call, kinda felt like a guy in the middle of a losing streak just trying to spark his team as much as anything. You're not going to change the umpire's mind on that one. It was a nice insurance run, but hardly game-altering, either. Wallner is absolutely crushing it right now, and it's great to see. Twins have needed some thump from the left side and Wallner is absolutely bringing it. When he's locked in he's very very dangerous. Sands and Thielbar did a great job getting the game to the 9th. Feels a little strange to see Thielbar go 2 innings, but he was so efficient it wasn't a problem and they needed someone to pick up an extra inning with the doubleheader. Excellent work by the bullpen to close down the game, Richards did well too. Only 47 pitches to get through 4 1/3, that's impressive.
  9. jmlease1
    Ober is having an excellent year, and seems to have really figured it out. (He has to have tipped his pitches against KC right?) I like using Game Score as a way to evaluate a starter, and Ober has 12 of his 22 with a Game Score of 60 or better, only 4 with a Game Score under 40. He's really giving the Twins a great chance to win when he takes the hill. Excellent way to start a doubleheader and a series!
  10. jmlease1
    It's going to be a challenge. The incentive for Lewis to sign a long-term deal is to lock in guaranteed money against the risk of injury, insuring that he gets generational wealth even if he has another catastrophic injury. A lot of players would do that deal, especially knowing that even if they bet wrong and stay healthy and productive the whole time, there's almost certainly another big deal available. But Royce Lewis has as much confidence and faith in himself as any player I've ever seen. Might be harder for him to not bet on himself, you know? That said, he's also the sort of player that isn't going to want to bounce around to different clubs and feel like a mercenary. I think he'd rather be a Twins legend. Still doesn't mean he's going to take significant discounts, though.
  11. jmlease1
    It's going to be Lee or Martin when Farmer is done with his rehab assignment (unless someone else gets dinged and is sent to IL). This front office is exceptionally reticent to lose control of a player they think could be an asset or even move on from sunk costs. They got burned hard by not having enough depth a few years ago and seem to have said to themselves that they'll never end up like that again. It's made them a little more risk-adverse than I think they should be, but at the same time the injuries do keep flowing. Moving on from sunk costs is something most franchises struggle with, i think, but teams with smaller payrolls tend to have it worse. we're always chasing getting value out of a guy, in part because there might not be any money in the self-imposed team budget to get a replacement if the contingency plan doesn't work. I also would argue the generally risk-adverse nature of this front office comes into play here too, preferring to bank on a veteran finding their form over a younger player figuring it out for the first time.
  12. jmlease1
    Fun night for the pitching pipeline. Good to see Matthews have a strong outing. I'll be very happy if he finishes the season in AAA strong and has people thinking about him for the rotation next season, even if I think it's most likely that he starts the season in AAA. Lewis is looking healthy, which is the most important thing, but having positive results that make him look like the guy we got hyped about last season is excellent. Looking forward to him finishing strong as well. Tanner Hall is interesting, and doing ok in his first professional season. The last 2 starts have been quite good, and if he can show that kind of consistency, he'll move up quickly. I love a pitcher with an elite changeup, and if he's figuring out his command/control issues from earlier in the season, he's got some possibilities. Especially if the twins are able to add a little more velocity to his fastball along the way... I feel like SWR has done enough to have the inside track for a rotation job next season (with the assumption that Lopez, Ryan, Ober, and Paddack are the presumptives on the other 4 slots), which could potentially give us a rotation in AAA featuring Festa, Varland, Matthews, Lewis. And make it unnecessary to throw money at a journeyman veteran 5th starter type and have options in AAA that have real futures as the call-ups against injury. I've been feeling better about our starting options in AAA every year lately, which is relatively new and fun. Kinda cool to go from hoping 1-2 guys might be able to do something to feeling good about 1-2 guys, to feeling good about 3 or more...
  13. jmlease1
    haven't had the opportunity, but isn't this the pure scouting fallacy? You've watched him several times, but at this point he's started 9 games and made 15 total appearances for 46 2/3 innings. If 2 of the starts you saw were 6/20 & 6/26, your impression isn't going to be very good I suspect. If you watched his last 2 starts, I suspect you'd be more impressed. It's why the overall stats have to be included. When I think of a guy who doesn't miss enough bats, those guys can't hunt Ks. It sounds like his issue is more about commanding his pitches (the walk rate and HBP numbers are good indicators there) so that when he throws the change or slider with good break guys are more likely to chase it, while keeping a few more runners off the basepaths. Looking at his pitch counts, you can see he's had those type of games where he's racking up 70 pitches in 3 innings, which again goes to his command & control questions. He seems like an interesting prospect who is doing ok in A-ball in his first professional season.
  14. jmlease1
    Terrific start by Morris who is having a very good season. It's great to see him get deep into a game like that too. A 0.1 HR/9 rate is unsustainable for anyone, but he's always been good at keeping the ball in the yard, which may serve him well as he rises in the minors. He's only got 10 starts at AA, so let's maybe pump the brakes a little before bumping him up to MLB, but I could see him getting a late call-up to AAA this season. He almost certainly starts there next year, I'd think. AAA rotation next season should be pretty strong and provide that starting pitching depth effectively with Morris, Matthews, and either SWR or Festa likely starting the season there, not to mention Cory Lewis still coming along and Marco Raya. There's been a lot of jokes about the twins "pitching pipeline"...but it's starting to show out, I'd say.
  15. jmlease1
    11.8 K/9 suggests that he is missing some bats out there.
  16. jmlease1
    as Hawk noted on the broadcast, it's probably the first time that's ever happened to Larnach...and will never happen again. It wasn't good, but I'm also pretty sure he was extremely embarrassed and mad at himself over it. If he makes that kind of a baserunning botch again, then we can get mad at him. This one you can laugh it off. ("Nice baserunning, Trev: don't ever effing do it again.")
  17. jmlease1
    It's just so hard to know with relievers in the minors whether they can keep translating as they move up the ladder. Grace is doing terrific this season in results, but the underlying peripherals are a little concerning: k/9 is way down this season and he still walks guys. The WHIP is excellent, but it wouldn't take much to change that. He's 24 as a reliever in AA. I thought Cody Laweryson was going to be a real relief prospect for the Twins in 2022 and a few of us around here got pretty hyped about him. He struggled in Saint Paul in 2023 and got demoted back to AA this year and suddenly looks like he's going nowhere. If Regi Grace finishes the season strong and stays healthy, he will likely get a chance in AAA next season, but who knows if he's got the chops to make it to MLB. It's a tough road for minor league relievers i think.
  18. jmlease1
    It's great to see Buck playing in CF and hitting so well. He's a key player for the Twins and one of the guys who has an elite ceiling, and you need those guys to contend. He's clearly he trying to pick his moments for when to unleash his top-end speed and do it when it counts to keep himself on the field through the long grind. Fine by me, especially because he's shown that he can do it, throw it into 3rd gear rounding 1B to leg out a double. The knee surgery in the off-season clearly has worked and cleaned up the problem that kept giving him pain last season, and they've managed his workload pretty well. It would be really exciting if he can get through this season like this, and then NOT need any kind of surgery in the offseason. Sometimes that's the cascading effect for a player who had a lot of injuries earlier in their career for staying healthy later: getting that healthy season with no off-season surgery so they can keep building on what they have and not have to start over again. Here's hoping. The defense may not be back to the elite levels it was, but it's still plenty good out there and he's having an excellent season overall after a slower start.
  19. jmlease1
    I'm glad we weren't the ones to break the ChiSox streak, especially since we're the last team they beat. They can get well against someone else. (or not, since some of their vets seems to have quit on the club in august) Sweeping teams isn't easy in baseball. even historically bad teams win 1 out of 3 and even rotten teams can have everything come together for a day. While we should expect the Twins to beat the ChiSox, getting a sweep is a good work. eventually this streak will end, but no one wants to be the team they finally get a W against.
  20. jmlease1
    I love winning. I especially love beating the ChiSox, no matter how crap they are this season. And, yeah, I remember how a couple of seasons ago how all the prognosticators had them as the team on the rise who were going to control the division for years to come. Turns out, 2021 was an utter fluke. They've had an awful front office, been a mess with their managers, and their owner is pretty dreadful. What a shame, lol. Nice to see the bottom half of the lineup carry the club. Got to feel good about the team's approach at the plate drawing 7 walks; as much as I look at WHIP for pitchers, I keep an eye on where the team's combined walks & hits landed for a game. Generating 15 baserunners like this should get you the runs you need. Go for the sweep!
  21. jmlease1
    I liked almost everything about this game. I was annoyed at Ryan giving up the dinger, because it felt like Ryan let them off the hook with that one, but maybe I'm being too hard on him. The other thing was I really don't like the "city connect" uniforms. blegh. Love everything about healthy Royce Lewis and Byron Buxton, though!
  22. jmlease1
    well, sort of. if every HR was a solo shot. those 2 and 3-run HRs certainly increase your run-scoring efficiency. even the solo shot does it efficiently. but the harder guys hit the ball the more likely it's going to go for a hit. Wallner is doing great. even with some regression he's still going to be a very valuable player and hitter. Yes, he's going to K a lot and it's going be frustrating at times. But he's also going to punish pitchers who try to groove one to get a strike and ways that other hitters can't.
  23. jmlease1
    Because he's 27, didn't hit in the minors all that much until last season, and isn't on the 40-man. He's got talent and might be a good fit as a 4th OF because of his skill defensively, but we've had enough OF this season that are on the 40-man that there hasn't been room to add him. If Buxton goes down with a serious injury (god forbid!), I think you might see him get his chance, and there might be a window for him next season as guys like Kepler and Margot likely move on. But he's a late bloomer dealing with a roster squeeze.
  24. jmlease1
    "I can't believe Twins fans would consider Pablo Lopez an ace after a season when he was a deserving all-star and finished 7th in Cy Young voting!" Look, "ace" is a seriously undefined label that has a wide-range for people. Some people consider a #1 starter an ace, others only consider one of the top ten pitchers in the league to be an ace. Some people just look at dominance. Some people look at a guy that would be a top pitcher on most teams in the league who could pitch Game 1 of a playoff series and you'd be happy about that while the team you're facing would not to be an ace. Pablo meets a lot of these categories, even if he's struggled more at times this season than last year. (and looking at his FIP, he's probably been a little unlucky this year too) But it's hardly crazy for Twins fans to look at Pablo Lopez and think of him as the team's ace.
  25. jmlease1
    dammit, I thought the full list was up there in print. I got too excited when I saw Priellipp on the list...
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