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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    WAG = Wild-Ass Guess. (Think this started as military slang?)
  2. jmlease1
    I don't think moving on from Span & Revere is what killed the Twins in 2013; they were awful with a staggeringly bad rotation that relied on Correia, Pelfrey, Diamond and the smoke & mirrors of Deduno. There were too many problems in the lineup far beyond Span being gone to make up for. And the immortal Ben Revere and his career 7.9 bWAR wasn't the answer. That team was just bad. And Polanco has been worse than Julien this year, so we haven't exactly been hurt by moving on from him. And I'm still happy to have Pablo. This really doesn't resemble 2013 much at all, which was a bad team team and had been a bad team for a while and would continue to be a bad team because we couldn't develop pitching, spent little, and our best players got hurt while we got little from the farm system. This team has a winning record, is coming off a division win and some playoff success, with real pitchers and some young players rising. Julien will be ok, I think, and a reset isn't unfair. I'd like him to get a little time at 1B while he's in AAA with Brooks Lee coming up, but we'll see. It's fair to be frustrated about the Twins keeping veteran assets that aren't playing well as we get later in the season. Margot is looking better in a limited role...but it's such a limited role that I have to wonder if you can keep him around. Farmer is having the same problem. At least Farmer is still a solid defender, but if he can't mash LHP any longer he's going to be starting his coaching career sooner than maybe he planned.
  3. jmlease1
    Because the front office is extremely adverse to losing control over what they see as an asset. 2022 fell apart when we didn't have enough legitimate outfielders to hold things together (that team was tied for 1st on September 4th and finished 14 back) and they've clearly taken the position that they're never going to let the floor drop that far out again. Which I don't think is unreasonable, even if all of their decisions in trying to maintain a floor with veteran signings haven't worked out too well with guys like Gallo and Margot. I think the problem now is that once you get into June, that level of depth becomes less vital, you fall into the sunk cost fallacy when you keep hoping veterans will rebound and you can extract value from them, and organizationally we have more options in the high minors with young players that are able to perform as well if not better. they're guarding against injuries to high levels and risking on-field performance in a different way now.
  4. jmlease1
    Miranda can play 2B (played it a lot in the minors and it was his personal preference), Castro is an option there, plus Farmer vs LHP. I still think Margot would have been the right choice to part ways with, but this front office strongly prefers not to lose an asset unless they absolutely have to as they maintain depth against injuries (understandable considering how OF injuries ruined a season for this franchise a couple of years ago, but I would argue you can take it too far...and that maybe they have).
  5. jmlease1
    Winning a series is great. Winning a series on the road is even better. No complaints. Houston may not be up to snuff this year, but they still have some scary players in the lineup. That top half is scary even with Bregman off to a slow start (and he's heated up recently to be sure). Winning is excellent. Glad the bullpen was able to keep things down. I have no problem with going to them early with a day off for monday. Hopefully, we can go into NY and play without fear and get the job done. Royce should inject some confidence into the lineup; he fears nothing and no one.
  6. jmlease1
    I'm intrigued by Lares. He's having a very good season in Ft. Myers and seems to have figured some things out. Might be another guy to watch. Lee and Jenkins both look ready to move back to their proper levels, hope to see that soon.
  7. jmlease1
    I vote Margot. It's not April any longer, so the need for depth for the season is less important now than it was at the start of the year. Margot may be getting more run right now, and has been less terrible...the upside is limited. If they need another RH OF, Austin Martin is in AAA and also has the ability to play CF (and 2B if needed). The Twins tendency is to try to preserve options and hold on to assets, but Margot performance and limitations in his role, along with the low upside make him the right choice to get the boot this time.
  8. jmlease1
    Lopez looked great last night. I don't care if some of those guys from Houston have been playing this season to date, they still scare me, and he shut them down nicely. Great to see guys taking good ABs last night, fouling off pitches and making their starter really work. Eventually, the Twins were going to get some breaks and have hits come through with runners on base too. Exactly the right way to start the series, and I'm glad Okert and Sands were able to finish it off with no drama. Good to give Duran and Jax some additional days off.
  9. jmlease1
    Colome had been a closer for 5 season at this point; why exactly would we have brought him to be a low-leverage pitcher? he was brought in to close, and flunked out. Bundy pitched into the 7th inning exactly once in 2022; it was his best start of the season by a mile. He wasn't any better in limited innings; he just wasn't very good. Simmons had a good first week of the season that propped up his early stats, and was passable hitting with his defense (which was still very good, just no longer Hall of Fame worthy) until July, when he collapsed utterly; the idea that the Twins "trained" him in their way that wrecked him during his IL stint with COVID is a) not backed up by evidence, and b) laughable. he sucked at the plate the next season with the Cubs and was out of the league at 32. Which is more likely: these veterans were washed up, or the Twins didn't handle them right? Because Colome and Simmons both sucked in their next stops too.
  10. jmlease1
    That was a bad trade, not a bad free agent. 🤣
  11. jmlease1
    Gallo was a bad signing, but he at least added 0.5 bWAR with that hot start to the season. Those games count too. Donaldson shouldn't be on the list; he actually produced about like we thought he would. The bigger issue was he got hurt by the time playoffs rolled around in 2020 and the team wasn't competitive in 2021. It just didn't synch up right. We were correct to move off him in 2022, but the signing itself isn't close to top five bad. I'd give the last slot to Happ. He sucked for us, and didn't work out at all.
  12. jmlease1
    Seems like a good idea to make the move; Paddack has been doing well, but the drop in velocity is concerning. I'd rather be proactive with him and Festa seems like he's ready to be challenged. (moving Canterino to the IL? If not, there are some other pitchers that would likely slip through waivers) I'd rather Paddack miss a couple of starts for rest purposes in June and come back than need a longer stint on the IL in July or August because he's actually dinged up rather than just worn down coming off a serious surgery.
  13. jmlease1
    An important win; it feels very different taking 3 out of 4 in a series against a division rival at home as opposed to splitting the 4 game set. Wish Duran had made the 9th a little less nervous, but we got there. Paddack could probably use to get skipped a turn in the rotation to give him a little extra rest; do you give him 2 off and IL him for 10 days to take a look at Festa? interesting question. Not a lot of other movable parts right now. Alcala needs to stay in the bullpen (and I would avoid asking him to go 2 innings for sure). He's looking locked in on the mound. Hopefully he can keep his head in the game and do all the other things (like covering the bases like he's supposed to) that you need from a professional. The talent is there and he looks healthy and strong. When we get Stewart back we'll have some big-time weapons in the back of the bullpen, which should also help keep Duran from getting overworked. Castro's ability to move around defensively and be effective is such a weapon. What a steal signing him turned out to be! I will admit it: I totally missed seeing what he could become, and the Twins have done very well in helping him reach his potential.
  14. jmlease1
    Much as I bear them no ill-will...it has been nice to no longer be getting texts from my friend the Reds fan about how Steer was the Second Coming, which were non-stop for the first 3 week or so of the season. May has been much...quieter.
  15. jmlease1
    Lol, not the best framing. Keaschall is an interesting prospect who is off to an excellent start to his career, moving up quickly through the minors and playing well at every stop. Getting to AA in his 2nd season of pro ball, when he only had the opportunity to play in 31 games after being drafted last year, at age 21 is impressive. but he doesn't have anything to do with the Reds, Steer, or CES. And it's not like the 2nd base pipeline ran out of prospects after we dealt Steer and before acquiring Keaschall. Still had Martin and Lee. Bad trade, because Mahle got injured and that sucked. Having a good draft and getting a player like Keaschall, who seems to be a legit prospect doesn't fix it. nothing fixes being wrong about a pitcher's health.
  16. jmlease1
    what games are you watching? because both the metrics and the eye test say the Julien has improved his defense. I mean, maybe not leaps and bounds over where he was at the end of last season, but that's because he was significantly better by the end of the season than from the start. Sure sounds like you're madder about him striking out too often and have presumed it's dragged his defense down.
  17. jmlease1
    He's played 3 games in the OF his entire career. i think it would be asking a lot to ask him to move out there except in an emergency. Larnach is better in the OF than I think most people realize, but the recovery from turf toe isn't helping. I think it's more likely for Castro to spend more time in the OF and Miranda get some chances at 2B. he was moved off SS because he couldn't handle it, but the move to 3B was more about opportunity than him being particularly lacking at 2B. (we've been generating 2B like crazy the last 5 years: Arraez, Julien, Lee, Martin, Steer, Gordon...not to mention Polanco moving over there) I do think Miranda's future is at 1B/DH. And he does not deserve a demotion.
  18. jmlease1
    and this is a big part of why they brought him back this season: to hit LHP and provide quality defense at a number of positions. It was nice when you could bring in Castro or Farmer and not have to juggle your defensive alignment a bunch in order to pinch-hit or pinch-run for someone, and Farmer was adding value there. If they've lost confidence in his ability to play SS and he can't hit LHP any longer, then sadly his days are numbered. Good guy, and I value players who can provide positional flexibility and utility around a platoon bat. But boy he's struggled this year. While there have been a few instances of bad luck for him where he's hammered the ball hard and it's gone right at someone or something...there simply haven't been enough instances of him barreling up on the ball. all of those secondary indicators are showing a guy getting overwhelmed at the plate with poor bat speed unable to square up on pitches with any consistency. Miranda actually can play 2B, as well (it was his preferred position in the minors before they moved him over to 3B, since there looked to be little opportunity for him at 2B). The clock is ticking. I don't expect teams to jettison a veteran in May. I do expect them to be thinking hard about it come June.
  19. jmlease1
    Maybe Margot or Farmer will get the "Sore Back" stint on the IL if everyone else is still healthy when Lewis comes back? (old NBA roster manipulation trick) Margot makes sense to DFA because he's not hitting and his defense has been worse than advertised by a fair bit, but it would leave us a little bit thin at OF on the active roster. Farmer makes sense to DFA because his role is diminished, he's not hitting, he's at the age where he's less likely to recover, and it would be an INF for INF swap. But Miranda is showing the bat that got him up here in the first place and having him as another RH bat on the roster makes sense. Santana has recovered enough from his horrid start (and is hitting LHP better than either Margot or Farmer) that dropping him isn't as appealing as it was in mid-April when he looked washed. Santana is taking good ABs again, drawing walks, etc. but Miranda deserves to stay. He's earned it, he's healthy again, and while he's been better against LHP, he's still been quality against RHP; his splits are way smaller than someone like Margot.
  20. jmlease1
    Little off-base, I'm afraid. He's still running a BB/9 of 4.5 (which is not good) and is actually slightly above his career average of 4.3. I mean, he's been a bit better than he was in Wichita last season...but worse than in Cedar Rapids last year, so it's something of a wash. I'd argue he's still got the same issues on his control, but he's been effective at run prevention despite it. That WHIP is just not sustainable. Hope Matthews is ok. Any roster move like that makes me twitchy, especially with our pitchers, lol. keaschall seems to be doing fine in AA so far. How much longer will Brooks Lee stay in Ft. Myers, I wonder? Until they have him in the field a few more times?
  21. jmlease1
    I'm not a huge fan of fWAR for pitchers because it doesn't reflect as well what actually occurred in the game as well as bWAR does. (It can be a better predictor of future results, but in terms of what actually happened, maybe not) If all you're looking at is pure performance than sure you might take Berrios over SWR, but cost has to be part of the equation here. SWR is a minimum salary guy and Berrios is clocking $18M per. Pablo has been better than Berrios the last 2 seasons; so far Berrios has been better this year. The biggest advantage Berrios has over Lopez is better health. Berrios is at least as close Ryan as he is to Lopez, but the comps are always going to be troublesome because Lopez is 2 years younger than Berrios as is Ryan (who also didn't get a chance to pitch in MLB until he was 25) A big part of why Berrios was dealt and SWR was acquired was due to salary and contracts and ignoring that is a little silly.
  22. jmlease1
    Was it leadership they missed in 1992 or the fact that Pagliarulo didn't even play 50 games, Hrbek missed 50 games, and the pitching staff needed a better 4th starter than Bill Krueger? Keeping in mind that they still won 90 games, but there was no wild card and only 2 divisions back then. I don't think the issue was "no Dan Gladden or Al Newman in the clubhouse".
  23. jmlease1
    I really don't think "leadership" is why we made the veteran signings we did; it's a value-added piece, sort of like a bonus, and part of the Twins trending towards a "no a$$holes" approach after the Josh Donaldson Experience. Vazquez was signed to be a quality defensive catcher that they thought would be ok at the plate. (they've been half right?) Santana was signed to be a quality defender at 1B who could hit LHP and be decent against RHP (they've been 1/3 right). Farmer was acquired to be the SS before Correa came on board, and was shifted to be the backup SS and more of a utility role to hit LHP and provide quality defense at multiple positions (worked great last season, not so much on the hitting side this year). All were expected to be good in the clubhouse...and I think they have been. Margot was brought in to be a 4th OF who could handle CF and hit LHP. (he's hit LHP a little, but overall this one is 0-3) I don't think he was brought in for "leadership". but who are the 9-10 guys that are here as "leadership" players rather than for what they could do on the field? Pablo Lopez was brought in to be a front-line starter. That he's a leader of the pitching staff is value-added, not a primary reason. Correa was brought in to be a great SS who could both hit and defend, something we haven't gotten here in a gazillion years. His leadership is again, a bonus and a reason why they were comfortable with such a long deal...but his production is why they wanted him. None of the relievers they've brought in were for "leadership", but because they thought they could fill a role. Paddack was acquired to be a rotation guy, not a "leader". The biggest issue with this may be the fact that when a veteran isn't performing well the Twins struggle (like most teams, really) with when to move on. Part of this is sunk-cost fallacy, part of this is knowing that how a team treats its veterans can matter when free agency rolls around, part of it is asset control (most veterans are gone if they get designated for assignment), and part of it is budget limitations to fill the vacancy. Vazquez is a tough nut because of the contract. Twins aren't going to want to just eat the salary, and he is still quality defensively which matters more at catcher than almost anywhere (especially since so many catcher stink at the plate these days). I think it's going to be nigh-impossible to move him now without giving up a prospect we don't want to lose or eating most of that salary. He really has been awful at the plate, like historically bad. He'd need several weeks like his last one in order for anyone to even want him right now...and if he has several weeks like this then the Twins are going to talk themselves into him being ok. This really is where having a big payroll helps: you can buy out your mistakes. And Vazquez has been a mistake, even if he's helped the pitching staff more than is currently measured.
  24. jmlease1
    Zebby Matthews walked a guy! Incroyable! he's doing just fine in AA, even if he took the loss. Nice to see Keaschall have a good debut. One game doesn't really mean anything, but it's still probably nice for him to get that first AA hit out of the way, He's having an excellent season and AA should be a good challenge for him. Winokur is having a good week, and it's nice to see a little more pop in his bat. He hasn't exactly fallen apart, but a lot of 1-4 days where he's only getting a single were dragging him down. Would like to see him driving the ball more consistently and showing a bit better control of the strike zone. But he's still very young, so this is all part of the learning curve I think. Martin is having no trouble with AAA this year. but it's good to see him doing well after getting sent down. Right now he's showing the best side of himself at the plate: really hard to get out, doing some damage when he deigns to swing, never afraid to lean in and get hit to get on base, and even threw in a couple of steals. I wasn't surprised to see him struggle a bit in his first opportunity at MLB, but I still think he can be a quality player. Good to see him playing mostly LF-CF for Saint Paul; I think with some more reps out there he can be a solid defender in CF and plus in LF with his range, even if he doesn't have the strongest arm.
  25. jmlease1
    I think we will see that from Alcala if they don't ask him to go 2 innings any longer; most of his issues this season have been in the second inning when he's been asked to go two. (like the implosion vs Seattle). Hasn't given up a run in the first inning of any stint. He looks healthy and strong and ready to pitch higher leverage situations. Once Stewart gets back, the back end of our bullpen is a scary proposition from the RH side with Duran (even with his recent wobbles), Jax, Stewart, and Alcala. YMMV on Thielbar & Okert, but they've both been death to LH hitters. the trickiest bit might be those middle innings if the starter doesn't go more than 5...
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