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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Severino is having a fantastic June. but he was just ok in May and started horrifically. He's going to need to show that this is more than just a hot streak. But it's great that he seems to have figuring some things out, you have to love seeing him pull more walks than Ks in June while still crushing the ball. He needs to hit his way to MLB but a power-hitting switch-hitter would be a nice add... Lee looks awesome. I love it. Morris is having a great season so far. His WHIP in AA is sick! Not bad at all for the Texas League. the 2022 draft is looking very strong right now for the Twins: they went heavy on college players and they seem to be developing fast. And this is without Prielipp being healthy at all!
  2. jmlease1
    I think he has the ability to be at least average defensively at 1B and he'll hit enough for the position. Backup 3B if needed, play some DH...hard not to see him having a full-time role in 2025 for sure. The injury last season really wrecked his whole year, and he probably should have shut it down and had surgery sooner, but it's understandable why he and the team would try and rehab and play through it. He's clearly feeling much better at the plate, and is able to swing hard and confidently again.
  3. jmlease1
    What a difference a year and good health makes. Jose Miranda is back to being the kind of hitter we thought he could be and really looks locked in. (oddly, he's struggling the most against LHP, which I expect will start to norm out as the season goes on) Love the way he's insisting that he get in the lineup with his play. This is the kind of offense we expected this team to produce this season, even if it's not exactly the group of guys we thought would be doing it. SWR just keeps grinding away. He's doing a very good job of keeping the ball in the park and not handing out free passes and just keeping the team in the game and giving them a chance to win. He's been really important this season.
  4. jmlease1
    Exciting opportunity for Festa! AZ will be a very good challenge; they score plenty of runs. But he's a legit 3-pitch guy: the slider is an effective pitch and the changeup really helps against lefty hitters, so if he can keep hitters from squaring up on his fastball he should do well. Looking forward to seeing how he does. It would be a nice win for the scouting and development departments too. Festa was hardly a significant name coming out of college, and converting a 13th round college pitcher into a legit MLB starter would be massive.
  5. jmlease1
    Usually injuries work out the playing time issues, so i expect to see Wallner and/or Lee at least some time in the second half. And I expect a portion of the fan base to hate having Wallner back because of the K's, regardless of what his overall production is. I do think the twins will need to move on from some of the veterans for 2025 and it would be good if some of the young guys show out again this season to inspire confidence for that path. Potential lineup for 2025: C - Jeffers/Camargo 1B - Miranda/Julien 2B - Lee SS - Correa 3B - Lewis RF - Wallner CF - Buxton LF - Martin/Castro DH - By committee (Jeffers/Buxton/Miranda/Julien) that could be a very exciting lineup. Absent injury, I'm not expecting Camargo until next season, really but I could see him getting a chance to be the catching pair if they can move off Vazquez's contract.
  6. jmlease1
    He also had a rotten June hitting, that would have been almost impossibly bad if not for a good last week, so the idea that the Twins have been failing Jeffers by not playing him more recently is an interesting one. If he doesn't get hurt (which is something they're working hard to guard against because he's an important player) he's going to easily play in more than 50% of the games this season and hit career highs for starts and games played. Seems fine, especially with Vazquez no longer looking helpless at the plate (in an admittedly small sample, but his June was certainly good enough). I mean, i think we want Miranda's bat in the lineup too. Maybe it would be better to play Jeffers and extra 3-4 games a month at catcher and tilt the balance, but this is also getting into the part of the season where players start getting worn down and dinged up. Since Jeffers slumped badly for most of June, maybe he was feeling a little worn down from handling a bigger workload (in total) at this point in a season than he's ever experienced in his entire MLB career...
  7. jmlease1
    He's 4th on the team in games played, 4th on the team in plate appearances. Currently appearing in 80% of the games, not 50%. He's only catching 50%, but they're still getting his bat in the lineup.
  8. jmlease1
    i think you have him pretty well evaluated here. he's absolutely got to be able to command the zone better and keep the free passes down. If he's able to get the BB/9 down closer to 3 and do it without needing to back off his stuff to throw strikes, then I suspect we'll see the K-rate tick up a bit and his H/9 tick down/stay reasonable as well. Too often a player with his profile starts tossing a "get-over" pitch in 3 ball counts that lead to more hits (Pagan was a great example of this, IMHO) He's doing a good job keeping the ball in the park this year, which is no small feat in the Texas League. Disagree that he was primarily a reliever in 2022, though: 22 appearances, 14 were starts.
  9. jmlease1
    It's certainly preferable that Margot and Farmer are back to performing the way they were anticipated in the roles they were brought in/kept to perform. The problem is that they are only effective in pretty limited roles. Neither Farmer nor Margot hits RHP worth a damn at this point and there are a lot more RHP in MLB. With such a limited roster, it's a little tough to carry 2 specialists like this and not have them get exposed. Particularly in how our LH hitters have done (or failed to do) against RHP this season. Easier to have Farmer as a bench option to come in against a tough LHP later in games if you have Ed Julien raking against RHP, or Margot doing the same when you have Wallner on a roll. Which was certainly the plan at the start of the season, and Margot & Farmer were both expected to be better defensive options than those 2 players as well. Early in the year no one held up their end of the bargain. We've been lucky Buxton has been healthy enough to play extensively in CF, because Margot hasn't looked like a good option there regularly. (I think he's looked better in the OF lately, but it's not crazy at all to prefer Castro or Martin out there) happy to see the twins not get annihilated by LHP so easily now, and Farmer and Margot have certainly helped with that recently. Concerned that their inability to hit their weight against RHP still makes them more of a liability than a true asset.
  10. jmlease1
    You've made it very clear that a) you think the front office doesn't value defense, b) you highly value defense, c) you don't respect the front office for caring about power production from prospects, and d) you think the Dodgers are much better at developing prospects than the Twins. But unless Miller can hit better than this the front office didn't blow anything. Miller's never had an OPS over .700 in his career, and there's little to no evidence that the Dodgers have done anything to significantly improve him as a player. He looks like the exact same player the Twins had: a good glove, no-hit shortstop.
  11. jmlease1
    I would expect most guys need some adjustment time in their first stint at a higher level, but we'll see where Doncon lands at the end of the season. If he's able to show similar power to what he flashed in Ft. Myers it's a good sign. I still don't expect Doncon to stick at SS, though. Miller had a hot stretch when he hit 4 HRs in 3 games at the end of April/beginning of May...since then he's been kinda rough at the plate again: fairly poor OB%, only 7 xbhs in 46 games since the HR barrage, and his OPS has been on a real slide back down under .700. not great for repeating High A. he might still make it because the glove is excellent, but he's likely to just get overwhelmed at the plate unless something changes and not many teams can carry a no-hit defensive specialist. I suspect this is why the twins were willing to deal him.
  12. jmlease1
    Oakland does have some talent; there are some good hitters over there and their bullpen is quality. The starting pitching, on the other hand...injuries, poor performance and hope that a guy like Hogan Harris has figured it out? oof.
  13. jmlease1
    Julien had a good week, so hopefully he's getting himself re-set and back to being the quality hitter he's shown he can be. I think it's fair to have him show it for a few more weeks, though: selective aggression, patience, and making consistent contact when he swings. Development paths aren't always linear. Doncon seems to be settling in at Cedar Rapids, and it'll be interesting to see how he finishes the season. He's still getting most of his time at SS, but they are playing him at 2B and 3B as well. Hopefully he can show a little more pop in the bat, but I'm always happy when I see guys hitting triples.
  14. jmlease1
    Wallner has better range than he looks; he's a player that might not pass the eye test but is actually respectable enough out there. he'll be far better in RF where he belongs, though. Ratings seem about right overall. Correa won't rate as highly as he used to because of the rule changes that don't let him play as far back as his arm would normally allow but he's still a quality defender at SS. Julien was trending up towards average to me, but I have no illusions that he's a plus defender. I expect to see Buxton ranking fairly well next time these are published? It'll be interesting to see how Lewis does. he seems to have the tools but needs more time so that they can play up and he doesn't have to think as much but react and go more. not sure where his ceiling is defensively. but betting against Royce Lewis seems like a fools errand...
  15. jmlease1
    Great job by Pablo. Fun to see that bullpen chart with so many guys registering a zero pitch count for a few games; can't be sad about a well-rested bullpen going into the AZ series. Pablo's stuff had been still good even in this tough stretch, so it's good to see him putting it back together and having a dominating start. No loss of concentration, no hard luck inning, just dominating. Oakland is a poor offensive team, but shutting them down so completely 2 games in a row is still excellent work, and Oakland actually had a decent crowd for Pablo Day. Glad to see Buxton rip a dinger. He's not up to his ability on offense yet this season (though he's not actually been bad; we and he all just expect more and he's capable of more) but it is nice to have him playing so much because the defense is still excellent. If he can tick the offense up a bit he's going to have a nice solid season and maybe a dinger like this that is impactful on the game will help get him going. A hot Buck sure would be fun this summer...
  16. jmlease1
    Complicated on Sabato. While the overall numbers at the AFL were ok, there were some of the same concerns with him inside them: low contact rates, really high Ks, low BA. He certainly doing better this season in AA, but I would hope that a 25-year old in AA repeating a level would show improvement or he'd be looking at the end of his career. It's good to see the improve contact rates and lower Ks, but he's also had to lose a little of patience and isn't piling up the walks quite as well. He's going to be a hard call for the 40-man next season; Twins are facing a bit of a crunch there. Sabato doesn't add anything on the defensive end (mediocre 1B); he absolutely has to hit to have value. Texas league is also a hitters environment...is he hitting enough? It'd be nice to get some value out of Sabato, who was bordering on bust territory. He's had a good stretch, but I'm not sold yet.
  17. jmlease1
    Nice to see Severino on such a heater. It seems unlikely that Santana will be back next year, so there should be an opportunity at 1B for him, and the fact that he's a switch-hitter would be another nice add even as a bench bat. Having a couple of effective switch-hitters in your lineup can really help keep things balanced and make it harder to attack by the other team's bullpen, so hopefully Severino has figured something out and can keep rolling. Considering how the LH OF have let the side down a bit this season, have to wonder if Kiersey might get his shot? Not being on the 40-man might be the biggest barrier at this point, but you have to wonder if he keeps hitting and stays healthy what he'll have to do.
  18. jmlease1
    Come on. You can't just count the cost of Gray's salary this season in a vacuum: you have to look at the total length and value of that contract, Yes, paying Sonny Gray $10M in 2024 is awesome, and a real steal. Paying Gray $35M in 2026? Better hope he's still healthy at 36. Plus the fact that he wanted to play closer to home, etc.
  19. jmlease1
    Jeffers is mired in a dreadful slump right now, with a .345 OPS in June. Vazquez has actually put up a .790 OPS in the same period. More importantly, Jeffers has played 63 out of 76 games this season, and has stayed healthy. Maybe not so asinine. Margot has turned it around and is putting up a .758 OPS in June as well. The idea that these are easy and simple decisions is what's laughable. If they cut Farmer and Lee dings his back again and is out for a month, how's that going to work? I'm pretty sure you'll be back railing on the front office for being stupid, stubborn, and clueless if they drop Margot and Wallner goes 3-24 with 14K's too. Offense really isn't the problem right now: we scored 5. Paddack is looking like he needs a break, a reset, or maybe the league has figured out this iteration and he needs to make some serious adjustments. Funderburk not putting out the fire and Duran blowing one cost us the game, not Vazquez, Margot, or Farmer. The pitching has to step up: we've given up 6 or more runs in 7 games in June, 5 or more in 12. That's not going to get it done. Offense has scored 5 or more in 8 of the last 9.
  20. jmlease1
    The hitting potential of a Twins infield in 2025 with Lewis, Correa, Lee, and Miranda/Julien is tantalizing indeed. The power production is a good indicator that the back isn't giving him any trouble, I think. He hasn't played a ton yet, but all systems look go. If he hadn't gotten hurt early i think we would have already seen him at target Field. let him keep pushing. Good to see him get some time at 2B; that seems to be where he's going to get the first opportunity.
  21. jmlease1
    I think they're going to have to monitor this over the next 6 weeks to be sure. Okert is death to lefties, but is getting crushed by righties, which makes it harder to go to him late in games where he could immediately face at least one pinch hitter and might not get more than 1 lefty out of his minimum 3. Part of Thielbar's strength over the years was he could handle righties as well without getting nuked. I expect he'll get some additional opportunities to see if he can get it back, and he's got the track record that he deserves more rope. Giving Funderburk the opportunity makes the most sense right now. His control is still concerning, but he been good at not giving up hard contact and should have the ability to work around a walk or two.
  22. jmlease1
    The Twins competitiveness has a challenging impact on the bullpen: we're rarely blowing people out or getting blown out, which means that our top bullpen arms are often getting used and can leave us in a position where the lower guys on the list get asked to fill a role they're not really intended to handle. The top of the 'pen is pretty strong with Duran, Jax, and Alcala and when Stewart gets back they're in great shape from the right side late in games. The left side is a little more challenging with Thielbar in a funk and Okert struggling to get RH out, because we're no longer in a world where you can carry a LOOGY. Okert is death to lefties, but as soon as he comes in you have to expect the PH. Hopefully Funderburk can help. Tough beat making the big comeback and then falling short. Great to see Miranda playing so well, and Santana's revival has been impressive. Was surprised to see Jackson get recalled in the first place, glad to see him demoted again. Hopefully this experiment is over: Jackson can't get LH out at all has been just another guy against RH and he's not designed to be a mop-up guy either. He's got no future here and going to that well again and again seems like a waste. Let him fling sliders at AAA hitters. Disappointed to see Royce get thrown out at 3rd; yes, you want to advance a base but you simply can't get thrown out there. Have to wonder if that's a situation where he hasn't really internalized that's he's not as fast as he used to be.
  23. jmlease1
    Considering his injury history, it's probably not a bad idea to give him a little rest here and there. It's pretty incredible what he's done when he's been on the field. He's got the tools and the mindset for success and I love watching him play.
  24. jmlease1
    prime Ichiro also was good for 6-8 triples a season and put up SLG of .425 or better (which is also the mark where you see Arraez getting that OPS+ over 120 and being a more impactful player). But 100% correct: Ichiro wasn't just a singles hitter who did nothing else.
  25. jmlease1
    Thielbar has enough track record that he's going to get more rope unless they're seeing clear signs in his stuff that he's truly degraded. Complicated for relievers because of the small sample sizes. Jackson, on the other hand, should be gone as soon as Stewart is back if not before. He was a reasonable risk, but he seems likely to get through waivers again and even if he doesn't it's not great loss. Alcala, Jax, and Duran are already pretty murderous to face late in games (and did a great job shutting down TB last night) so adding Stewart back to that mix is going to be fun.
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