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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I took a look at the Twins hit rate on first round picks (including compensatory picks) going back through MacPhail. There's some grim pickings. Andy MacPhail had 16 picks. 12 of them at least made it to MLB, and you had 2 legit star players in Torii Hunter and Chuck Knoblauch. After that? I wouldn't call any of them even a decent starter (Todd Walker is the closest: career bWAR of 10.5, only 1 season where he posted a bWAR over 2). He did draft Varitek, but since he couldn't get him to sign, I ruled him out. 3 top 10 picks, none were quality starters Terry Ryan (I) had 20 picks and 15 of them made it to MLB. 1 star (Mauer), though I was on the fence about Span. 6 more guys who were at least solid starters (this is where I put Span, who never made an all-star team, etc) 6 top 10 picks, only 2 hits in Mauer and Cuddyer. Smith had 9 picks, and only 3 made it to MLB. No stars here, only two solid players (Gibson and Hicks). Not great. Xero top 10 picks, though. Ryan (II) had 7 picks and all 7 made it to MLB. But outside of Buxton (a star, even with his injuries) and Berrios (a solid pitcher for sure) none of the other firsts did anything. 4 top 10 picks; only hit was Buxton. Falvey has made 15 picks and 6 have made MLB so far. (I'd argue you can't exactly count picks from 2023 onwards against him for not already being in MLB?) No stars yet. 2 solid players...but Rooker really "made it" in Oakland. But he was drafted here. I know some people hate Wallner, but in this context he has to be treated as a solid player. 3 top 10 picks to date: Lewis has been injured and lately ineffective, jury still out on Lee, and Jenkins hasn't made the majors yet. Where does that leave us? Several things come to mind: Just looking at first round picks doesn't tell us enough It's pretty common for Twins first round picks to make it to MLB, but that doesn't mean a lot The Bill Smith era was pretty bad, but no high draft picks Ryan II started good and fell off fast, with 4 top 10 picks and only Buxton yielding anything Falvey needs Jenkins to hit or his record on firsts gets very thin Those supplemental picks have missed a lot in the last 40 years.
  2. jmlease1
    They do, but the economics for the NFL are pretty different. revenue sharing is much stronger, and the locality differences are much less pronounced. No one in the NFL has to rely on localized media rights deals to form a substantial part of the revenue, and the actual costs to putting on a game in terms of overhead are also less (an NFL stadium is much bigger, but you're looking at 9-12 games a season to put on, including preseason & playoffs, as opposed to 81-90). There's no farm system to support either. We have no idea how the Wilfs would behave as owners of the Twins. That said, we've seen enough of Team Pohlad over the past 40 years to be ready to take a risk with about anyone this side of John Fisher...
  3. jmlease1
    well, you've said it yourself: a GOOD 1B makes that play. an average or below average one doesn't. France maybe makes that play (he was doing well with scoops) but he's also had a lot more experience at the position. Santana makes that play, but he's a gold glover. Julien has been ok at 1B, just looks inexperienced. He's made some nice plays (looked confident starting that double play) and some shaky ones. If he's gone it'll be because he's not hitting enough.
  4. jmlease1
    Seriously. It's really a shocker how staggeringly tone-deaf the organization has been over the past 2 seasons. Starting with the "right-sizing" of payroll it's been blunder after blunder, a textbook case in how not to speak or act about your franchise. (If I were a marketing major in need of a capstone project, a "What Not to Do" about the MN Twins would be a slam dunk.) I can't think of a single statement from ownership that has been well-received since 2023, except for them saying they were putting the team up for sale. (which if course, was a bait & switch) Every public comment from the front office has been meaningless pablum. Rocco almost seems life-like in comparison, but as team spokesperson he hasn't done well either. (not that he's got much to work with with the team struggling so much) They've bungled their media rights, and compounded their lack of foresight and ability to negotiate with a staggering inability to communicate effectively with fans about it. FFS, even once they finally pulled the plug on Bally they still couldn't get their act together so people knew how to watch games until the last minute, and were incommunicado throughout. Everything from them screams cluelessness or disinterest. Their most recent public statement look like they were written by AI, not an actual human with any connection of compassion for fans. There are some players on this team and prospects that could make it worth watching, and even possibly turn the ship around more quickly than seems likely with the frequently lifeless product we're getting right now...but the leadership has given us no reason to believe in them. The Pohlads are prioritizing their bottom line (again). We don't even know who the new partners are, and there's little reason to believe they'll get a real voice, especially if 3rd Generation Joe is still calling the shots. Falvey handled the sell-off in callous fashion and then didn't have the courage to really stand up behind it. While I don't have the built-in hate for Rocco that some do...what has he done recently to instill any additional faith that things are going in the right direction? Or calm the waters after a massive sell-off? Worst part is, ownership does not care.
  5. jmlease1
    Yes, but he's slow and strikes out, so we'd better get rid of him quick. /sarcasm.
  6. jmlease1
    I'll give Ober credit for battling and limiting the damage, but he did not look good. Fastball velocity was down again (season low) and the Jays were dialed in on him. Springer especially had his number. Have to wonder if Pablo were back if Ober wouldn't be getting shut down again. The baserunning is a mess. Martin keeps making big mistakes and it doesn't seem like Tommy Watkins helps anyone out there. I'm not really sure what Keaschall is doing out there at times, taking a nice lead and then dancing out further when the pitcher throws but not actually running? He's distracting his own hitter more than anything with some of that. Give a little credit to the offense, who kept grinding and did a good job of getting runners on base, and some big flies brought 'em home. Nice to see Wallner hit a bomb with runners on, but I'm sure many people still want him sent packing. An actual Gasper sighting! Still think he's more of a Quad-A player, but you never know. I'm fine with giving him regular time the rest of the season and figuring it our for sure. He did well against the Jays, at least. Not impressed with Outman, who has an unfortunate name for a hitter.
  7. jmlease1
    Considering the Pohlads have been leaking that they were losing $40M this season on a $135M payroll (YMMV on whether you believe them; I don't believe they have earned any trust on finances), expecting them to put a payroll of $120M together is...optimistic. It's part of why I expect them to move Pablo in the offseason, not sign any marquee free agents, and have the whole thing sitting at more like $80M, with plenty of excuses related to local tv revenue.
  8. jmlease1
    I kind of doubt Jeffers will be flipped at the deadline next season; despite being a quality bat that can still catch effectively, it doesn't sound like there was a great market for him this year so it's unlikely there will be much market for him next season as a rental. So what's the point of flipping him? Right now I'd say it's more likely we see Gonzalez in the OF at this time next season than Emma, just because Rodriguez can't seem to stay on the field. That said, I wouldn't be sad if GG has earned a call-up because of his play. We'll see whether Culpepper is starting in MLB this time next season; I'm guessing he might not. He's gotten a little worn down in his first full professional season, and with a lockout on the horizon for 2027 the Cheaply and Poorly Run Twins might look to leave him in AAA rather than start the clock. Regardless, I think Lewis will be at 3B unless he too is hurt; seems unlikely to be traded (right now it's sell low) unless it's part of more payroll reductions mandated by the Pohlads. (he won't make that much, but anyone with a salary above league minimum could be in doubt with this ownership and their desire to ensure an operating profit meeting their requirements) 1B is a real hole. I think they see Sabato more like McCusker: Quad A, not MLB. They may be right. 2B will probably be Keaschall; his defense needs work, but he missed so much time that it shouldn't be a surprise. He's got the skills to well there and probably just needs to the reps. Twins lineup will need several experienced players to find their form/show improvement and a couple of rookies to hit the ground running in order to have a quality offense next season. It seems unlikely they'll add anyone significant; it'll probably be another Ty France type out of the bargain bin if anyone. Buxton, Wallner, Lewis, Keaschall, Jenkins could form the basis for a good offense...but there's plenty of uncertainty there, and if any of them falter you're needing something significant from Jeffers, Lee, Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Fedko, or Culpepper...the odds aren't really great. Hope I'm wrong. Hope Keaschall & Jenkins are great, Buxton is healthy, Wallner regresses back to his mean, and Lewis finds his hitting stroke again. Hope Rodriguez or Gonzalez is ready to come up and hit the cover off the ball. But betting on hope for a Twins fan hasn't worked too well in the past 30 years.
  9. jmlease1
    Wallner has a .322 on-base %. He's 3rd on the Twins in walks, despite being 8th in plate appearances. It's pretty clear he knows the strike zone. Walker Jenkins probably could come up right now and have a higher batting average since he's one of the best prospects in all of baseball. If you want to make that comp...sure? Not sure it's quite the insult you're trying to make it seem. Wallner's OPS+ is 122. Only Twins hitters that are above that are Buxton (who is having an excellent season) and Keaschall (who only has 25 games). He's one of the best hitters on the Twins, so go ahead keep insulting him.
  10. jmlease1
    So the only stat that matters for prospects now is K-rate? I have trouble taking "analysis" seriously that only looks at 1 number to evaluate a prospect's hitting potential. Fedko is unquestionably the hottest of hot right now and has been doing a great job this season. I've still got questions about him, because until this season his power has been inconsistent and he's never really hit for average before, so you have to worry about his contact rates. It's a small sample so far in Saint Paul, but you never know: he may be a late bloomer who figured something out. Saw him play a little CF the other day and I think his future is in a corner, but he wasn't a butcher there.
  11. jmlease1
    Yeah, Baldelli pulling the infield in early in the game was the problem last night, not Ryan & Kriske both getting hit hard. Or the offense only getting 5 hits. I mean Toronto had 10 hits and drew 5 walks while the Twins had 5 hits and 3 walks, but I'm sure that if Baldelli hadn't pulled the infield in everything would have changed. 🙄 Wallner did a nice job jumping on pitches he could drive last night and hammered two homers. Nicely done. Kriske doesn't look like much more than filler. Cabrera at least is on the right side of 30, but he issues a lot of free passes. Bullpen needs a lot of work
  12. jmlease1
    Ryan has said he wants to be here, but we know there's at least one player who said off the record that the flurry of trades made people want out. Who they are is pure speculation. not that it will stop people from stating "they know" who wants out.
  13. jmlease1
    I don't know that Roden is a bright spot at all yet. It's still early to say he can't hit MLB pitching, but he'll be 26 next season, so he also can't be called a young player for much longer. The tools are intriguing, but he has to hit to make it. His AAA performances have been strong, but the leap from AAA to MLB is a really hard one, and there are a lot of players who can consistently abuse AAA pitchers by waiting for the inevitable mistake or punishing the known weakness that keep a pitcher from making it in MLB who get exposed in MLB by pitchers who don't make those same kind of mistakes or have easily exploitable weaknesses. Roden will get a chance next season, and there's been enough AAA performance to warrant it...but he has to start hitting. If he doesn't he'll be a Quad-A guy, and unfortunately we've seen a few of those lately. At least he can fill in at CF and be a good defender in LF, but we also have Walker Jenkins pushing his way up and there's only so many LH outfielders the Twins can carry...
  14. jmlease1
    Absurd, for many reasons. Wallner is a quality player who hits better than any Twins OF not named Byron Buxton Jenkins has the speed and ability to play CF; you don't put that guy in RF from day 1, especially not because some fans are so K-phobic they want to run a good hitter out of town LF is open, and could use a player who can cover ground like Jenkins can. It's a much more likely landing spot that doesn't have an established hitter Happy to have Jenkins get the bump to AAA. He's earned his way up with a fine hitting performance in AA, and with his early-season injury it seems like a perfectly good idea to get him a taste of AAA competition and more ABs this season. I love his skills with the bat. Really seems to know the strike zone, and there's more power potential to unlock. And even if he's not a true slugger, he could still easily be a 20 homer player who also gets on base a ton and hits for average. Very exciting player who has moved quickly and performed well at every stop
  15. jmlease1
    I don't think the shine is coming off Prielipp, it's just he's had 2 major elbow surgeries and there's real concern about whether or not he'll ever be able to hold up as a starter. This season he's thrown more innings than he has in the prior 4 seasons (college and pro) combined...and he's still only thrown 65 innings to date. I don't think anyone has come down on his ability, and if they have they're foolish to do so. It's fair to be concerned about Bradley: he's new to the organization, not new to MLB. But I also think they people pushing for SWR to go to the bullpen are doing a lot of the "oooh, shiny new thing!" for why they want him moved there, rather than reflect what the Twins might think of him. He's been able to compete as a starter, better than some of our other guys, but since he's not an instant star people are already tossing him over the side for the next shiny object that you can project all your hopes and dreams on who hasn't had a chance to disappoint yet.
  16. jmlease1
    Good thing Keaschall continues to hit, because he's been looking rough on defense. If this had been Ed Julien booting the ball like this, people would be calling for his head. Fortunately, Keaschall has a visually pleasing style at the plate or he might be getting criticized for his poor defense. For me, while I'm willing to give him a pass on throwing issues since he's coming back from surgery and a busted arm...it's not too great seeing him boot grounders. Disappointing start from Bradley, who doesn't really get the rookie excuses since he's made more than a few MLB appearances. Definitely not what the Twins wanted to see back-to-back from two of their most notable trade deadline acquisitions. CWS are not a good team and Bradley got rocked. Offense is bad. Need reinforcements here. Seems unlikely we're going to get them with the Cheap Pohlads in charge.
  17. jmlease1
    Lot of arm talent here, just going to be a question of his command. The stuff looks plenty good enough to hold up, especially if that new sweeper is to be believed. (I suspect it may take him an offseason to really command it consistently) I'd certainly rather see what Mick Abel has got than another round of the Urena Experience. I want real competition for the last two spots in the rotation (still praying the Twins don't send off Lopez and Ryan in the offseason in another money-driven fire sale). Love to have Festa, Matthews, Abel, Bradley, and SWR really competing for the last 2 spots, and no one getting a role on scholarship...and not wasting what little money there is on a veteran retread.
  18. jmlease1
    While I'm unenthusiastic about him, Roden isn't at a crossroads yet: he's cheap and has options. Larnach is in more trouble with the Twins as a poor defending platoon bat who hits RHP well but not exceptionally well, while being helpless against LHP. Larnach is also getting more expensive and while he should be affordable, seems unlikely with this ownership. Roden has flunked his first try at MLB, but I suspect he'll get another chance, especially if he shows he could handle CF as needed. Not saying that's the right move, just more likely. Martin is in much more trouble than Lewis; Martin hasn't looked good at any position defensively (I'm still surprised at how much he's struggled in the OF) and he's not hitting. I've owned property on Martin Island for a long time, and I'm increasingly ready to sell. Lewis needs to hit better, but the Twins aren't going to give up on him yet; the upside is still high and he's looking quite good defensively. The only risk with Lewis' status is his price tag is going up. I'm also not too worried about SWR, who may not be more than a back-end rotation guy, he certainly can fill that role and has shown an ability to make adjustments when he struggles. Seems unlikely they're giving up on him because he lost a bunch of time due to illness.
  19. jmlease1
    Battle of the crap bullpens. Good to have Lewis with a good night at the plate. Him finishing strong would be very nice, even if it sounds like he's worrying about his stats a bit too much. He is looking very good at 3B right now, making some impressive plays and looking very comfortable there. Maybe that will quiet the calls for him to move to 1B. Pretty ugly game with 15 walks between the two teams.
  20. jmlease1
    K. Culpepper really scrabbling right now; wonder if he's getting a little worn down after playing more games in a season that he's ever done before? He's still had a fine season, but learning how to handle 120+ games in a season is something he might need to work on. Mendez seems to be having a bit of a breakout season. Seems to have good bat to ball skills, and if the improvement in his power numbers is for real, we may have grabbed an underrated little gem in exchange for Bader. Be a nice piece of business if this is more who he is as a hitter. Would like to know more about his defense; quality in LF or not? Rosario has quietly put together a pretty good season. He's on another hot streak in August, which is a nice recovery after a bit of a wobble in July. I'm always going to be concerned about his contact rates until he proves otherwise, but he takes his walks and causes damage when he swings. With all the LF OF bats we've assembled, his thump from the right could find a place at some point. I expect him in Saint Paul next season. Wonder how he rates with the Twins staff at this point? Glad to see Morris pitching again. This season has been a bit of a mess for him: injuries and struggles, but I still like his talent. Hopefully he can finish strong and be an option.
  21. jmlease1
    I don't think most people WANT to move Lopez or Ryan; we're just expecting that they will get moved by an organization that doesn't expect to win in 2026 and an ownership that wants to cut payroll to increase their own profits. I agree that even when you're going with a youth movement and relying on your prospects that it's smart to have some quality veterans in place to help carry the load, keep things competitive, show the young guys the ropes, etc. I just have no faith that this team under the ownership of the Pohlads, led by Joe Pohlad, will do anything to make this team more competitive or do anything in the offseason to improve the club in the short-term. I do believe that they will shed more payroll, claiming it's the only way to keep from losing money. (please be clear: I don't believe it for a second when the Pohlads cry poverty.)
  22. jmlease1
    Nope. Buxton $15M Lopez $21.5M Ryan $7.5M Jeffers $7.5M That's $51.5M total for 4 players. To get to $59M you'd need one more guy at $7.5M
  23. jmlease1
    I think this is partly right. They didn't sell controlling interest because they couldn't get the price they wanted...but also because they found a solution to their cash issues that let them keep the team, which is an asset that will continue to appreciate. If they get back to their bottom tier spending ways and start turning an operating profit again, they'll be perfectly happy to continue on owning the team and letting Joe Pohlad keep steering the ship for the family. They've likely generated between $450-$500M in cash from what we've heard so far (more than 20% sold and at a valuation above the $1.7B, supposedly); if they use that to wipe the debt off, there's still money left to do a distribution to the Pohlad family to give them a cash infusion for other businesses/activity. They can run 2026 at a profit by not spending on players and dropping the payroll to $75M, and use that to get through the lockout we're likely to see in 2027. If they're in a better financial position in 2028, why would they sell? The asset will continue to appreciate, they're not losing money any longer, and they have a family member willing & eager to be the front man. We could be stuck with them for another 10-15 effing years. I mean, I hope you're right: I hope the Pohlads sell the rest after 2027, if not sooner. But I'm not betting on it. And I'm certainly not going to bet that fan hatred will move them one bit. Most people wouldn't know a Pohlad if they came up and bit them on the leg, and it's easy enough for them to skip out on going to games, especially since most of them aren't all that into baseball anyways. Our ownership situation sucks.
  24. jmlease1
    Good game for Tait, but he's been scrabbling lately. He clearly still needs development time. Jenkins is having a very good season, marred only by a little injury trouble. It's great to see him hitting for more power without sacrificing his batting average, and still taking his walks. He's looking very dangerous out there. I don't that it matters that much whether he finishes his season in AA or AAA at this point? I guess if the AAA season runs later I'd be happy to see him come up to Saint Paul and get some more game action in, and maybe get a jump on next season.
  25. jmlease1
    I don't understand why Urena is on this team. I get that we need innings from someone, but why are we giving them to a bad cast-off who is nearly 34 and has no future with this team? He's given up 17 hits and 8 walks in 17 2/3 innings in 4 outings since coming over to the Twins. That's not good. (nice error to add to the pile, too) He's definition of fungible, being on his 4th team in 2025 alone. Make him go away. I get that SWR is a ways away because of illness, Lopez just made a rehab start, etc...but why not Mick Abel or Taj Bradley? Why not someone who might possibly have a future? Because Urena does not.
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