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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Not when he can't hit his weight in MLB. There's little to suggest that he's improved as a hitter at all, and it gets harder and harder to draw walks as you go up a level with no power to punish a pitcher for throwing a "get over" pitch. He's never finished a season with a SLG close to .400, and his BA this season is propped up by an unsustainable BABIP. Did he improve last season in the vaunted Dodgers farm system, away from the evils of the Twins supposedly dogmatic ways that were holding him back? He did not. OPS of .633, which is pretty poor. Yes, he's doing better this season to date, but he's had stretches like this before...and has always reverted to being an empty singles hitter who gets overwhelmed at the plate by quality pitchers who can locate their stuff. The glove plays, but he's profiling as a no-hit, all glove infielder and even at SS that's not enough to keep you on a roster in MLB. He's Christian Vazquez at a position where there are actual options, not utter desperation. Who would you rather have, Kaelen Culpepper or Noah Miller?
  2. jmlease1
    It's not an easy call, but I think I have Ryan as one of the 3, with deGrom and Eovaldi, though I go back and forth on Bubic vs Eovaldi; the 1.75 ERA is gaudy and the ERA+ of 216 is remarkable for Eovaldi...but the 77 innings is not. Ryan got snubbed in that he was more than worthy of pitching in the all-star game, but at the same time it's not like he's gotten passed over for selection by someone truly unworthy. Unfortunately, the fact that the Twins have swooned in June likely counted against him, along with playing in a smaller media market (of course, our media reach would be better if ownership hadn't been incompetent boobs with the team's media rights and so forth over the past decade, but that's a different issue)
  3. jmlease1
    I'll admit, I'm always a little blown away seeing pitchers throw so poorly to 1B. There's been several really wild ones this season on what should be a routine play (not just from the bullpen, either) and every time one goes flying past 1B with basically no chance I wonder "what in the hell is going on there?" It's got to be a mental thing where they start thinking about it, rather than just effing throwing the ball, but it's the sort of mistake that really sticks out and drives you batty. This series is one where the order of the games probably impacts our perception of the series too much; If we win game 1, lose game 2, and win game 3 to win the series, everyone probably feels pretty good about taking down a quality TB team (TB is consistently good these days, and they've been very good at retooling on the fly. they might have awful stadium issues, but their professional staff is excellent). Lose the last game when you're gunning for a sweep and it's a bit of a downer. I didn't hate the Bader signing when the Twins made it (though I was a little nervous about the money and whether he'd get overused in LF) but it's really been a good one. The defense has been as advertised, and the flair he shows out there is a nice, fun bonus. There's been enough big hits and the homers have more than compensated for additional Ks. Pretty good in a season when we haven't actually needed the Buxton insurance.
  4. jmlease1
    He's had a complicated season, I think. Just an awful start that's kept his overall numbers down, but until yesterday's breakout he'd been in a little mini-slump again to start July. His K rate and ability to make consistent contact is still a concern? A quick look at his splits shows he's pounding away at LHP, but really struggling vs RHP, and I think he needs to even that up a little just because there are so many more RHPs. But points to him for crawling out of a rotten start to make us think about him again. It's a nice collection of hitters going right now at Wichita, even with Sabato & Schobel getting promoted. Jenkins, Culpepper, GG, Fedko, Rosario, and Olivar are all looking good. Even Cossetti's having a nice bounce back season after a rotten 2024, though his low average at this level is still concerning and probably limiting, Ben Ross is looking like he's hit a AA wall, though.
  5. jmlease1
    I'd almost forgotten about Christian Macleod (there can be only one?), would not mind at all seeing a LHP move up the ranks and maybe be a rotation option going forward. It does feel like the Twins have a lot of "maybes" in the rotations at the higher levels in the minors, but no one who is really stepping forwards and dominating with consistency. But LHP has a lot of utility, so many this gets Macleod moving again. De Andrade is having a fine season and seems to have himself back on track after a lost season from injury. Great to see. A little surprised he's not playing SS, as I thought the Twins liked his defense there, but it seems that he's behind several players now on the pecking order there and looks like he's shifting over. But he's still a fine prospect.
  6. jmlease1
    I think the biggest difference between 2024 GG and 2025 GG is not about age as much as it's about health. He started out well in 2024, but missed about 6 weeks and never really got back on track. This season he's healthy and hitting. (I'm sure age and development mattered as well, but never discount the importance of being healthy) He's doing great this year. Love seeing him take his walks, and he's been a doubles machine. Since he's only 21, hopefully he has room for growth in the field and can get up higher than "acceptable".
  7. jmlease1
    Steamy day at the stadium today with some brief showers dropping in. It was very concerning when the Twins couldn't get more than 1 when the bases were loaded up; there was a fair amount of furor over the umpire refusing the call the balk, which cost the team a run. Started to feel like one of those games where the breaks weren't going to go the Twins way. We get a liner that looks like it's heading to left field and their SS manages to leap up and snare it. Similar play happens and the ball just goes over our fielder's glove. We have a couple of well-hit balls go tot eh warning track; they get an "excuse me" hit that end up going for a double. It was feeling like one of those games...but the Twins didn't quit on it, and Kody Klubbed one to the opposite field. Lovely play in the 9th. Buck works the walk (BTW, he should have had a hit in the first, not reaching on an error IMHO; that was a rocket and a tough play), Willi slashes a single, and Lee spots the 1B playing way off the line and drops down a lovely bunt. As soon as it got past the pitcher, the only hope was it rolling foul, but Lee placed it perfectly. Adams...didn't look good. Lot of hard contact. He limited the damage, but did not impress. He did miss some bats, even if he wasn't generating Ks, so maybe he gets another chance. But definitely a lot of loud contact and hard hit balls. Nice win.
  8. jmlease1
    Love seeing that from Walker Jenkins! Stay healthy, dude, because you are a player. Excellent to see Raya getting back on track. He really struggled early in the season, but he's looking a lot more like the top prospect he's been touted as. Considering where our starting pitching depth is right now, his success could end up being imprtant. DeBarge and GG with multi-hit games again. Ho hum. :P
  9. jmlease1
    A good win. The offense still needs work, but 4 was enough today. Paddack looked very good early, thought he might cruise. But he still did well enough on a hot day. Tough day for Correa at the plate. not great from Stewart either, was looking like it was his turn in the "player who's been good all year dorks it up" barrel, but the team pulled it out. Very nice game by Bader, who has wobbled at the plate a little lately. Whose hat/helmet comes off more, his or Castro's?
  10. jmlease1
    I'm confused. GG didn't have a hit today. :P Would like to see DeBarge move up; I'm really wondering how his running plays against better catching and pitchers that might have learned more about holding runners on. Sure looks like this is going to be a weapon for him, and it's fun to see someone pile up this many steals in the minors. Preilipp did ok; I'm mostly happy with him being healthy this year. Would like to see him be more efficient in getting through innings, but health is the biggest thing for him this year. If he can finish the season without any injury issues then this season will be a huge victory.
  11. jmlease1
    I think my comprehension skills are just fine. I laid out the scenarios where the Twins had a runner on first with no outs after having scored their second run. All of them. You seem to be arguing that the stats are wrong about how useful it is to bunt a player over because situationally it might be better to do it with the top of the order coming up and the hitter in question being bad. But at the end of the day you're still giving up an out for a base. If you can do the math where it shows how having the 9th man in the lineup sacrificing the runner from first to second with the top of the lineup is better than just having them hit followed by the top of the lineup, be my guest. If Bader is bunting for a hit, it's a different story. Bunting for a hit is very different than a sacrifice. But you don't appear to be arguing that, only for moving the runner over and seeing what happens.
  12. jmlease1
    A little thin on the offense in the system, but it goes that way from time to time. Nice to see GG continuing to play well: can't complain about a hit and 2 walks. He's really having a great season, and has to be rising up the prospect rankings. Twins seem to have him in a good place, he's been healthy this season, and is well positioned to maybe get a cup of coffee in AAA this year. Good for him, hope he keeps it up. Interesting to see Noah Miller; he still looks the same to me. Good defense, might hit for average, no power, seems destined to be a utility guy for a team with good hitting and defensive needs in the infield for a few years at best. Doncon is having a poor, injury-filled season, but I don't see Miller being more than organizational filler at this point. Trade looks like one that will mean little for either team. Very nice outing for Bohorquez; he's got talent, but he needs to find some consistency throwing strikes. It'll be interesting to see if this kind of start gets him on a run, or if he keeps having games where he can't find the zone without taking something off...which leads to him getting hit. in 10 outings this only the 2nd time he hasn't given out 2+ free passes; both games where he's kept the walks down he's done well. The formula for success for him doesn't look that complicated, but getting him through it is the tough part.
  13. jmlease1
    You wanted Wallner to bunt Brooks Lee to 3rd in the 4th inning? Because that's the actual situation before Jeffers grounded into the DP. And with Correa being the runner at 1B, there's a real possibility they could have turned a DP on the bunt, and then you're looking at a runner at 3B with 2 outs. Yes, it sucked that Wallner struck out and Jeffers grounded into a DP, but playing for an insurance run in the 4th is a strategy that's going to lose more than it wins. Next inning we got the leadoff single and didn't do anything with it, but how much benefit do we get with Clemens on 2B and giving up the out? Unless one of the next 2 batters gets a hit, the bunt means nothing. The next opportunity is when Royce gets the walk in the 7th to lead off the inning. Nice job by him. But he's coming off a hammy injury and doesn't have the speed he used to. Is Jeffers supposed to bunt Royce over to 2B to avoid Ty France hitting into a DP there? Say he does: 2B and 1 out doesn't get us further unless France gets a hit. The DP sucked but bunting probably doesn't help much. 9th inning, Twins tried to be aggressive in get the insurance run: Castro tried for the steal with 2 strikes (good time for it, he's got good speed and an ability to steal) but he got caught. Lee's been one of the better hitters over the last month, why take the bat out of his hands with no outs? If Castro had stolen 2B before Lee K's, then you have Lee send him to 3B with a bunt. Bunting is an exciting play at times and can put pressure on the defense, and I'm fine with players with good speed bunting for hits. I'm fine with playing for 1 run late in the game to either get the win or an insurance run, when the situation makes sense. But there's this obsession around here about bunting that makes no sense to me. Most of the time, you're trading an out for a base at best, and when it's only moving a runner from 1B to 2B, it's just not worth losing the out. Yes, it sucks when the other team turns a DP, but the idea that it's fixed by bunting is really just hindsight talking and damage mitigation, not actually getting us an advantage.
  14. jmlease1
    SWR did a nice job. The miss on the homer was frustrating (it seems like we have no ability to keep a hot hitter from smashing homers sometimes) but overall he pitched quite well. Bader's defense was excellent, really fun to see. It's why we signed him for sure, and good to see him have that kind of impact in LF. The offense still needs work for sure. The DPs killed them, and they were never able to get a knockout on Junk, who threw a ton of it early. (I truly disliked the home plate umpire's zone early, though, where he was very inconsistent on the outside of the zone and was missing pitches. Both teams were simply guessing at what was a strike or a ball on the outside of the zone against that clown for the first few innings, and I'm guessing it was driving both teams nuts) Castro looks in the zone right now, but we need a few other guys to get going. Taking the win. Let's keep it going, win the series. That's all they need is a few series wins.
  15. jmlease1
    Good. It needed to happen. Ober wasn't doing anyone any favors by continuing to try and gut through this and try to find mechanical fixes while compensating for a ding. Hells bells, some people around here were ready to throw everything he'd accomplished in his MLB career prior to 2025 out the window because he'd struggled so much for a month. Get some rest on the hip, try to get right physically, and then adjust the mechanics in a rehab assignment. See you after the all-star break, Bailey. Funderburk for now seems fine, but wouldn't mind seeing Adams get a chance He'll be back. And I think he'll be good again.
  16. jmlease1
    Beltre has really been struggling this season, so nice to see him have a good day. You just never know with the kids in rookie ball. Julien is doing great. Who knows how he'd do in a return to MLB, but I'm sure after he takes his first K people will demand for him to be cut. With Lewis back and Lee having been playing well all June, Julien probably won't get another chance until someone else gets hurt in the infield. It's too bad for Julien, but this is why you can't stink out the gate in MLB: someone will come and take your job. Klein is doing a nice job this season and it's fair to say it's been a breakout. He's increased the K's while dropping the free passes, and that's almost always going to be a recipe for improvement. Since this is his first taste of AA, I'm not going to get too spun up if he rolls there for the rest of the season; if he keeps pitching like this he'll be well-positioned to go to AAA in 2026 and see what he can make happen for himself. Wichita looks like the team to watch right now for the Twins minor league system: bunch of fun hitting and pitching prospects to track. Jenkins continuing to swipe bags suggests the ankle isn't bothering him, and the fact that he's allowed to do it suggests the club isn't worried about him reinjuring it. Hoping for a nice long stretch of health for him, but he's looking good otherwise. I was momentarily excited about Fedko's steals, and then I looked at Rosario (not exactly a speedster, IMHO) and saw he was at a pretty similar rate, so I'm back on the "maybe don't take minor league steals too seriously" train.
  17. jmlease1
    If you only have a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.
  18. jmlease1
    I'm not really convinced on Chaney. As with all Twins prospects, I'm rooting for the guy, but...eh. Klein is interesting, if he's able to sustain the velocity up around 97mph consistently and get swings and misses on the fastball, then you never know. At the very least, he's putting himself in contention as someone who could be a hard-throwing reliever. He should be fun to watch. Fedko is the one who has really impressed. He seems to need an offseason to make adjustments to a level, which has definitely held him back, but he's having a very nice run of it in AA this season. I'll be interested to see if/when he gets a promotion up to AAA and what his reaction to it is.
  19. jmlease1
    It doesn't matter whether what's going on now is better or worse than what happened previously, it's unacceptable. It doesn't matter what's going on politically in this country, this behavior is unacceptable. It doesn't matter if you paid for a ticket, placed a bet, or purchased a broadcast, this conduct in unacceptable. It doesn't matter if it's being communicated through the internet, it's unacceptable. It doesn't matter if it was intended to be taken seriously or someone was "just blowing off steam", it's unacceptable. I'd say the line gets drawn at booing while you are physically at a game. That's it. Anything more than that and you should think about doing a re-set on your brain and maybe getting some therapy. (and even then, maybe calm the eff down a little) This behavior is despicable and people need to stop. Period.
  20. jmlease1
    Culpepper is very deserving. He's having a good season, proving that he can stick at SS and impressing with the bat. Earned his promotion to AA in his first full season of pro ball, and has done just fine so far at a tougher level. Congratulations to him!
  21. jmlease1
    Yeah, that was absolutely brutal. But Barreiro is notorious for covering for guys who show up on his show and burying guys who don't. National media treat Mauer better than the local guys, which is pretty abnormal, especially in baseball...unless the player gets into a real feud with a specific reporter and things get personal, which never happened with Mauer, who by most accounts is too bland to ever get into something like that. It's a shame that Mauer still doesn't get more credit, but if they're going to let fans vote StL has a much bigger fan base than MN: much longer history, much bigger tradition. St. L is still a baseball town, and in MN the Vikings & hockey outrank baseball. But the idea that Molina was better than Mauer is silly. Better defensively and more durable, sure. But not better, because hitting matters too and Mauer was an outstanding hitter, and not just "outstanding for a catcher". Stupid concussions. What an awful and unpredictable injury.
  22. jmlease1
    Truth. Led by a member of the media actively leading the charge against him and running him down at almost every opportunity (partially because Joe didn't have any interest in going on his show. Not that Mauer had much interest in going on anyone's show, really). Having the MN media whine about Mauer taking too many walks and not getting enough RBIs is still one of the dumbest things that's ever happened in MN sports. (part of my ongoing series on "Why Dan Barreiro should never talk about baseball", part XXXVII)
  23. jmlease1
    I'm on the ":send him to the IL to try and get right" train. The hip is an issue, but he mostly needs a re-set, and he's not really going to get the opportunity in MLB if he's getting his brains bashed in. This is easily the worst he's been in MLB and it almost doesn't matter what the issue is at this point: use the IL to get him a break and cite the hip. Give him some time to get a mental and physical break, and then work on the mechanics and give him a rehab start or two and let's try this against after the all-star break. Give Adams a shot. Even if he gets his brains kicked in (and he might not), it'll be valuable experience for him, and frankly he might give the team a better chance to get a win right now. Ober's been a good pitcher. I'm not letting a rotten month wipe all of that out. He needs to be protected from himself right now and the team needs him to work on things away from the rotation. It sucks that Pablo, Matthews, and Morris are hurt right now and Raya & Lewis aren't ready, but letting Ober give up moonshots isn't the answer either. Give Adams a shot, see if he has a future. Give Dobnak a look; he can certainly chew up some innings (did a good job coming in for Ober in a game Ober shouldn't have started in the first place).
  24. jmlease1
    I don't have a problem with Posey at all. Great player, will be in the Hall one day. The fact that Molina got picked over Mauer is a joke. Molina had 2 great seasons and a lot of ok to good seasons. Most of his all-star appearances were undeserving, and most of his career he was a good to great defensive catcher who didn't hit all that much. It's great that he was in St L forever and they love him, but this is why you can't have a fan vote for important things. Mauer won 3 batting titles as a freakin' catcher and they ignored it because Molina played for a million years. 10 (over half) of Molina's seasons in MLB he had a bWAR under 2 (aka, starter quality). Mauer had half as many, and most of them were after he'd moved to 1B and didn't get the advantage of positional differential that Molina had. Mauer & Posey were the best 2 catchers of the last 25 years, period. Johan's case is complicated; I think he deserves a mention, but excluding him isn't a crime considering the company. Nathan on the other hand deserves more credit, but the injuries and lack of post-season success probably dropped him out. But I'd take Nathan over Kenley Jansen every day of the week.
  25. jmlease1
    Skubal demonstrated that he's a great pitcher. I don't think his manager had anything to do with what happened out there today. Do you think Paddack would have gotten the win if we'd switched managers yesterday? This team struggles against LHP for sure but Skubal is the reigning Cy Young winner and pitching like he wants to go back to back. He's been great all season. He's put up a Game Score under 50 only 3 times this season, never had a single one under 40. by contrast, nearly half his starts he's put up a Game Score of 70 or better. He's absolutely dominant. Hope Lewis is actually ready, but won't miss Bride, who sucked. Offense is healthy, no excuses left for them.
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