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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    You are correct: Jose has been hitting like he's held a bat before the last week. .824 OPS, back to looking like a pro hitter. He'd definitely got obstacles in his path, though.
  2. jmlease1
    True, because they're not interested in playing McCusker and Wallner looks ready and healthy. But are you saying they should have activated Wallner without any rehab assignment? And if he did need a rehab assignment, aren't we just arguing about 1-2 games at this point? (seems like he's going to be joining the team after the TB series to me)
  3. jmlease1
    The "good" thing is injuries usually have a way of resolving this sort of roster crunch for us? It will be interesting to see whether Kiersey or Bride go down when Buxton & Wallner are both back. In terms of role, keeping Kiersey makes the most sense: he's really just there to be a defensive replacement/pinch runner, which Bride can't do. But he's also a zero at the plate. The other aspect is if you waive Bride, will he get picked up by someone else who needs the fill-in & hope that he finds his old form skill set that Bride brings? This front office has been very hesitant to let go of an asset for nothing and do anything that could deplete their options for depth in the future. Neither Kiersey or Bride have done enough to make keeping them important, frankly, and we're no longer at a point where we simply don't have a warm body who can play 3B with Lewis back, Lee & Castro available along with Correa being back and coverage available for him too. Clemens is the one who has earned playing time as a waiver-wire guy. I'd probably move on from Bride just because Kiersey has some utility beyond his (lack of) bat and can give guys like Wallner, Larnach, and Buxton time off their feet in the field. But the clock is ticking on one of them for sure.
  4. jmlease1
    Winokur is experiencing some developmental bumps. He's still very young, and young for the level. Too soon to worry about him. Rodriguez isn't doing poorly; OPS is over .800 and he still controls the strike zone incredibly well, he's just not destroying AAA yet. Still hasn't reached 200 AB in AAA. Lewis has definitely struggled. AAA has kicked his butt so far, but this is also the first time in his pro career that he's struggled. Development isn't linear. He might need to drop back to AA for a reset, or he might just need time to work through it. It's also possible that he's hit the wall, but it's a little too early to judge. Fortunately, there's several guys ahead of him in the pecking order if we need more help in the rotation. No-win situation on Wallner for management: if he hits bombs in AAA we're "wasting" them, if he doesn't immediately crush it in MLB after a lengthy layoff then they should have made him do rehab. It's been 4 games. He's getting his timing back and will be up very soon.
  5. jmlease1
    Fedko's an interesting player. At this point he's established a bit of a pattern on his development track: needing a second look at a level to figure it out. He struggled in his first try and low A, high A, and AA, but in his second go-around he's done much much better, showing increases of 100-200 points of OPS between the first year in a level and the second. I'm not sure what that means for his prospects, but the consistency of needing that second time around at a level to figure it out is interesting (maybe it's about his off-season program? Maybe he just needs more time and experience to internalize the adjustments?) He's getting a bit older to be a prospect, but just because you're older doesn't mean you can't contribute. Good for him.
  6. jmlease1
    They talked about it on the broadcast and had interviewed Bader about it, how he'd gotten stingers like this before but this was one of the worst, that normally he'd play through it but was trying to get healthy because he knew he was going to struggle at the plate. I get that he's been good for us, but give the guy a day or three off from gripping the bat so his fingers can heal (you could see them taped up) and he can swing the bat without pain. and not for nothing, but the "play through it" mentality is how players end up hiding injuries from the training staff. Players are frequently the worst evaluators of their own condition. (Buxton are Lewis are both known for being guys who if you asked them "you good to play?" they will say yes even if they just got hit by a combine and had a limb flopping off.) Interesting decision on pulling Ryan. I expect it had a fair bit to do with the heat? Normally I'd be excited to see Ryan go 7 there with his pitch count sitting where it was but this was probably wise with guys available in the bullpen. Correa looks pretty good right now, and it's great to have him back in the lineup. Can't wait to get Buxton and Wallner in as well to hopefully juice up the offense some more. I have a lot of faith in this pitching staff, but it's easier for everyone if they can get more runs on the board.
  7. jmlease1
    Schobel is a reminder that prospect development is not always linear. He'll need at least another month of good hitting to earn a promotion to AAA IMHO, but he's doing what he needed to do to keep advancing his career. It was starting to look like he had his the AA wall and couldn't handle more advanced pitching, but he's made adjustments and is starting to look more like the kind of player we hoped he could be. Good timing because there's a wave of infielders coming in behind from Cedar Rapids... Would not complain if Adams can turn himself into a multi-inning reliever who could go 2-3 innings twice a week; there's a real role for that in MLB now as more than just a mop up guy. Be interesting to see if he can claim that. He seems unlikely to pass Festa, Matthews, or SWR and looks to be behind Morris as well in the pecking order, so this might be the path for him.
  8. jmlease1
    Probably about right. While Ober was walking the line all day, far and away the bigger issue was the offense, which put up 1 in the first and then thought they could take the rest of the day off. 3 hits and 3 walks simply doesn't get you enough baserunners. The pitching was plenty good enough to win, but expecting to get wins with 3 hits is unrealistic. Fortunately, the Twins won the series, and if they get into a pattern of winning series after series they're going to be just fine. But they need Wallner and Buxton back, they need Lewis to get right at the plate, and they need more from Correa. That's just a reality. The pitching is there, and deserves some offensive support.
  9. jmlease1
    I'm definitely concerned about Ober, who looked good on paper today, but there was a lot of solid contact that went right at guys and some good defense that bailed him out. It doesn't feel that sustainable, but you never know. Was at the game today (nice day for it!) and felt like there was some inconsistent umpiring today, not sure what people at home thought.
  10. jmlease1
    Keirsey plays CF, plays it better than Castro by a lot, and with Bader coming off a tweak he's there to play defense until Buxton is back. He seems ticketed for AAA since he's performing so poorly at the plate, but at least he has a role. I don't really know why we called up McCusker, since Rocco's uninterested in playing him. Yesterday was the day to play McCusker, with a LHP starting and he couldn't crack the lineup then either. Wacha as a RHP at least you could understand, but if there's no room for McCusker against a LHP than he's little more than insurance on the bench. seems like a waste to me. Still a very nice win. Right now, if the Twins can just keep winning series they;re going to be in very good shape, and scratching out a win against a division rival like this is very nice work. Shame they couldn't be a little more efficient, because they're really using a lot of pitchers again, but at least that means they're competing and winning games. The increased bat speed sure seems to be making a difference for Clemens and he's doing a very nice job. Sometimes you can find a guy on the waiver wire. It's a fairly small sample so far, but he's been a lovely surprise and shows no signs of yielding his job.
  11. jmlease1
    I don't think it'll be long. He missed a little time to injury, and I'm guessing they wanted to make sure he was all the way back and comfortable first. He's doing great. I don't think it makes a ton of difference if he gets moved to AA in May or June? He's making it easy to get excited about him, though.
  12. jmlease1
    well, I just questioned whether Ty France would be able to find enough power production to deserve being a starter, so of course he hit a dinger. Hopefully he keeps it's up: I'm happy to proven wrong. A little long ball does help you get the victory. Might as well send McCusker back down now: if Rocco won't play him against a LH starter there's really very little point to having him on the team. Seems like he's not going to actually get a chance, just here to pinch hit and ride the bench. I get that he's not a "prospect", but this seems wasteful and a bit baffling, especially since Rocco was very willing to give Mickey Gasper a real chance. But a good win against a good team. Still need to find some more offense, but Cameron has been very good since coming up so nice to battle through there. Getting wins against KC is important.
  13. jmlease1
    I think that's somewhat true, but in Sabato's case he also doesn't turn 26 until June, and as first-round pick hopefully was able to sock some money away. Can't really blame a guy for continuing to chase a dream, especially when he's still in his mid-20's. He's been a professional for 5 seasons, but for a former college player he's not actually that old. No one will consider him a prospect, but if he wants to keep playing and he's hitting like he has been this season, he could end up in AAA as minor league depth as early as this season. Be fun if he turned out to be a late developer and figured it out enough to at least get a call-up to MLB. I'm certainly much happier to have minor league players paid better and put the onus on the teams to decide if they're no longer going to be in the organization over it being a question of "damn, I can't make rent if I want to keep playing the game I love" for the player.
  14. jmlease1
    Happy Correa doesn't appear to have any lingering issues and has recovered well. Hopefully some of what's going on with Buxton is precautionary and being properly concerned about a player's overall and long-term health. It is a big weekend for the Twins: they need to show they're not going to fall over now that the streak is done. got to find some offense to go with the good pitching, and Correa can be a real difference maker there. Looking forward to getting Wallner back too.
  15. jmlease1
    bWAR isn't hard to find: https://www.baseball-reference.com/ I usually use it for that fact: it's not pay-walled. You are correct: Sano was not particularly good after 2019. Almost all of his value was in his first 5 seasons. Who does that also look like right now? Ty France. By the way, 2020 Sano played roughly about as much as France has to date this season...and provided about the same value. (Sano hit quite a bit better and provided no defensive value. France has been a below average hitter and ok at 1B) My point isn't that Sano was some kind of great player (he was a dangerous hitter who stunk on defense and had injury problems). It's that he produced overall value not dissimilar from Ty France, but in a way that was less well-received. Healthy, he was a feared hitter at the plate. Ty France isn't feared by anyone right now. He's barely above replacement level. The idea that Ty France has "saved" us from someone like Sano just doesn't really work. It's great that Ty France isn't costing the Twins much, but it's not great that he's producing relatively little. His contact skills make him useful with runners in scoring position, but his lack of power makes it hard for him to help put a crooked number on the board. He's been fine defensively, but is slow and adds little on the bases. He needs to find more pop in his bat, but this has been the problem with him for what's now the 3rd season in a row. Not good.
  16. jmlease1
    Sano is an easy target for some people, but the reality is when Sano was healthy he hit, and produced on offense. It might not have been in a style that you approve of, but the production was there and the contract he signed wasn't a terrible one...he just couldn't stay healthy. Was some of that maybe his own fault, due to less than elite conditioning? Maybe, but no one can prove it one way or the other. (there's no questions about Buxton or Correa's conditioning, or Joe Mauer's, but they've struggled to stay healthy too) BTW? through 7 seasons Sano was worth 8.9 bWAR. Ty France is currently at 8.3 in his 7th season, with basically the same number of games, PA, etc.
  17. jmlease1
    Ty France has been...meh. He's playing like an acceptable reserve, not a starter, but he's getting starter's time. That's not thrilling. The defense has been fine, a bit better than originally advertised (he does do a nice job scooping the low throw, but doesn't cover much ground out there and occasionally looks lost trying to track a pop-up in foul territory) but not exactly something to crow about. As a hitter, he's still showing the power outage that made it easy for Seattle to move on from him. At the plate, he looks a lot like the same Ty France we've seen the last few years. The WPA has been nice, showcasing good hitting in important spots, and hopefully he starts getting a bit luckier at the plate...but he looks a lot like a reserve-quality player taking a full-time role that he isn't producing for. Especially if he can't find some more pop in his bat. It's not a disaster or anything, but this is exactly the kind of player that people start trying to talk up intangibles for because the stats just don't merit the playing time.
  18. jmlease1
    Yeah, I saw this and immediately thought "uh-oh." Hope this is just part of their plan to build him up carefully and not an indicator of a problem.
  19. jmlease1
    He's not long for the league, so not much point in getting too hung up about him. If Bader were fully healthy, we'd be seeing less of him in the field and he'd be a defensive replacement/pinch-runner again. The defense is certainly better than Larnach, McCusker, or even Castro in the OF and he's useful as a pinch runner. Problem is, he hasn't shown he can hit at all at this level. It's notable that he's played in 39 games but only has 53 ABs. But who's the replacement for him right now? Rodriguez? He's showing he needs more time in AAA, not that he's ready to hit in MLB. Morales? a .770 OPS isn't impressive at Saint Paul and he's not on the 40-man. Until Wallner or Buxton are back we need an OF, especially if Bader is still a little a little touch and go. If Austin Martin was healthy he'd already be up and Keirsey would be back in AAA. Yes, it sucks having a guy who is a black hole on offense, but injuries are pushing him into a role he's not capable of, not desire to have him get starts.
  20. jmlease1
    Culpepper has a much better chance at sticking at SS defensively. Winokur might have a higher ceiling on offense (also has a substantially lower floor), but if I was going to be on who is the guy more likely to being playing SS in MLB, it's Culpepper. Winokur has impressive athleticism, but as the competition levels have increased, he's struggled to make consistent contact. Don't get me wrong, I like the guy and he's a fine prospect, heating up this week and maybe starting to get comfortable in high A, but he's got a long ways to go and I think he's more likely to end up in CF than SS. Culpepper might actually be a real live SS and will probably be in Wichita soon.
  21. jmlease1
    Congrats to GG on his first AA hit! Nice to see him up in Wichita; I thought they might give him another few weeks in Cedar Rapids since he missed so much time with injury last season, but clearly they had seen enough and gave him the promotion. He certainly was looking ready. Should be fun to see how he does there: AA can be a big change. So happy to see Prielipp staying on the mound and getting the opportunity to show his talent. Can't blame the Twins at all for being cautious with him considering the significant arm injuries and surgeries he's already had, but the talent is clearly there. Just hope it's not going to be a Canterino situation where every time he starts showing off his skill and stuff another arm injury sends him back to the IL. With the way they're trying to build him back up, it's probably a little more complicated to make decisions on when to promote him. While I'm super excited by his talent, we do need to remember that his career high for innings pitched is 23 1/3, including college. He's 1/3 of an inning away from that.
  22. jmlease1
    Good news on Wallner. Would very much like to get his power production back in the lineup, add some real danger behind guys scratching out singles. I hope Coulombe is right about his injury, but I'm so used to players being overly optimistic/wrong about their health that part of me is simply uninterested in what a player has to say about their own status, unless they're repeating what the training medical staff has told them (since those people will almost never say anything on or off the record any longer, which while frustrating for fans is correct from a medical privacy standpoint). Tonkin's status would be more concerning if guys like Stewart and Topa were still fighting to get healthy. Right now, there isn't an obvious guy to drop for him even if he was ready. Would love to know where Buxton, Correa, and Keaschall are on their rehab timelines.
  23. jmlease1
    The bullpen is rounding into shape nicely, but hope that Coulombe isn't out long. He's been excellent, very capable of getting that last out with runners on base or attacking an inning where he'd be facing 2+ LH hitters. I do agree, we're missing a guy who can consistently be asked to go more than 1 inning at time (I actually think Varland could do it, but they clearly like him as a guy who is going max effort for one inning and are testing him to be a late inning guy, which isn't unreasonable at all). But there's an argument that role is the new pitching unicorn; most long men are guys that aren't good enough to be starters and seem unsuited to be in high leverage roles and aren't weapons but mop-up guys. But if the Twins starters are consistently getting into/through 6, the bullpen is well-suited to finishing it off without getting overloaded. Duran, Jax, Stewart, and Sands give them 4 high-leverage arms, and Topa & Varland are guys you're increasingly comfortable pitching close and late. That six arms you feel great about, and Coulombe will make it 7. When Alcala is your worst reliever, you're in excellent shape.
  24. jmlease1
    I'm expecting his K-rate to be north of 30%. If he keeps it south of 40% while dropping in a bomb every 20 PA's, then it'll be pretty good in this first go around. He's going to swing and miss. A lot. Hopefully he gets some full games to show what he can do and not just some 1-2 PA appearances. Let him get a start or 3 while we wait for wallner, buxton, and correa to get back.
  25. jmlease1
    I think Schobel's going to have to show it for at least another month or more; this is the first time he's hit in AA, and I suspect that the Twins are going to want more time to see if he can sustain the power production and contact rates at this level, when his prior track record has frankly been pretty disappointing to date. He's not a bad fielder, but he needs to swing the bat to keep moving up. It's encouraging to see the K's coming down to a much more reasonable level, but I'd also like to see him taking a few more free passes and really showing better mastery of the zone. But it's a nice rebound year for him, which he badly needed.
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