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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    We all need to get a re-set on Brock Stewart's value, though. I think it was a bad trade trade because Stewart was worth more to the Twins then and now than Outman is/will be, IMHO. But while talented, his injury history makes him someone that simply can't be counted on to fill a role in almost anyone's bullpen. Dodgers acquired him and he threw 4 times before going on the IL, and it seems unlikely that he'll be on their playoff roster at this point. Are they even going to offer him arbitration for next season? But this is why we got such a nothingburger for Stewart at the deadline. Other MLB teams saw him as a guy who couldn't be counted on. They're not wrong. I do fear that the Twins will fall into the sunk cost fallacy with Outman and treat losing him on the waiver as being worse than spending a roster spot on him, which seems crazy to me. 26-man roster spots have value and that value is higher than Outman. Martin has earned a spot for next season, they're not giving up on Wallner (though maybe they should be thinking about 1B and/or DH for 2026), and thankfully Buxton has a no-trade. That leaves 2-3 spots for the OF, and I would not waste one on Outman. Roden is going to get another shot I'm sure (whether anyone likes it or not) and frankly has more upside at this point even if we all hated the trade that was part of bringing him here.
  2. jmlease1
    I think it's because Fedko is the new shiny toy that hasn't had the chance to fail and disappoint us yet. I agree that Fedko should (and probably is) be behind Rodriguez, Gonzalez, and Jenkins in the pecking order for Twins OF prospects, but I understand the desire to move on from guys who look like Quad-A or retreads to someone that might provide hope and/or excitement.
  3. jmlease1
    I think there is, because if you strip out all of the veterans who make any money at all and implode the rotation the same way they imploded the bullpen, there's zero chance of the bounce back season, the overachieving squad like 2017, etc. And from a roster/player development side, just going with a bunch of rookies puts you with no floor at all. There's still a difference between being bad (which we are) and hopeless (colorado). We're rebuilding and should be looking at it that way, but when you also consider how MLB has disincentivized utterly sucking for 3-4 seasons in a row, what's the benefit to guaranteeing you'll stink? It's so hard to find starting pitching that's actually good and consistently good. I guess I look at dealing Ryan (and potentially Lopez) and seeing a future where the team could easily be awful for the next 2-3 seasons even if Walker Jenkins really is Captain America. Or Culpepper is the team-grown locked in SS we've dreamt about.
  4. jmlease1
    Because he wasn't on the 40-man yet? Because we wouldn't have learned that much about him in such a short span and we might as well find out if Outman can be fixed? (seems like no) Because putting any of the stink of the 2025 Twins on Fedko in september would have caused the fans around here to turn on him immediately if he had a bad week? Because Fedko started the season in AA and this is the first time in his pro career he's had immediate success upon promotion, so maybe making him prove it at AAA isn't crazy? I have little interest in Outman, but I don't really think they've done Fedko dirty here, who has still only played 42 games in AAA in his entire life.
  5. jmlease1
    That would certainly guarantee we're the worst team in the league
  6. jmlease1
    Agreed. Roden will and probably should get another look; while he's flunked out so far in MLB, it's literally his first taste of it and he's crushed AAA. While I was unimpressed with Roden's time in CF, the Twins seemed to think he could play there, so at the very least he should be a plus defender in a corner. But McCusker and Kiersey are organizational filler, and really shouldn't even be on the 40-man. Despite Outman's ability to run into the occasional homer, he's been pretty bad for the Twins and should not be given any serious consideration for a job, and at 28 should be looking at a minor league deal. Martin is a nice floor-raiser. (and that's important!) If the Twins go young, he's a nice 4th OF to protect guys like Rodriguez & Jenkins from tough LHP who will get on base any way he can and has the speed to do something when he gets there (even with the baserunning mistakes). He's going to avoid outs and can lead off or get you baserunners at the bottom of the order, and that's useful. Martin makes it easier for the Twins to move Wallner to DH or 1B if they're inclined. He sets the floor for what should be acceptable in the OF next season at a level that is at least solid, as opposed to incompetent or one-sided. This presumes that this season is more of who he is as opposed to 2024 Martin, but it doesn't seem unreasonable.
  7. jmlease1
    They're at like $90M in payroll commitments if they bring everyone back and pay projected raises in arbitration. I believe this also includes the $10M we're paying on Correa's contract (which you know Twins ownership will include in any payroll limits). Dump Lopez and Ryan and replace with minimum salary players and we're still looking at over $60M, which is basically the floor unless Buxton waives his no-trade. (I am not advocating for Buck to waive his no-trade, and I hope he finishes his career as a Twin, even if the team is a mess right now with horrible ownership)
  8. jmlease1
    I hate this idea. I hate everything about trading Joe Ryan, who is the kind of player you should be extending, not selling off. There should be plenty of payroll room for Ryan, and trading him to Boston or anywhere is a white flag of surrender and proof positive the Pohlads not only don't care about contending, but they also don't care if the team stinks or if anyone shows up to watch next season at all. Which might very well be the point. The fire sale might continue, pushing the payroll down to more like $75M as ownership utterly throws away another season in anticipation of a lockout in 2027. Yuck. It's a horrible result in so many ways for Twins fans. So it's probably what's going to happen. If it does, I just hope it's much more like the trade that brought Ryan here in the first place than say the one when we sent out Johan Santana.
  9. jmlease1
    Considering he's at 1.1 bWAR in a season where he's still not close to a full slate of games, I think 2+ bWAR is certainly still achievable even without returning to the all-star level hitting we saw prior to his knee exploding (again), especially with the defense looking stronger. A relatively modest improvement in his hitting and playing 120 games would get him there. But I do agree that counting on him to be a cornerstone with all-star upside is unrealistic. I'd love for it to happen, but until he actually shows he can be that kind of hitter again in a full season, planning for it sets you up for failure. But with the Twins struggling so much to even get 4-5 guys who can be 2+ bWAR players in the lineup, If Royce gets back there it'd make a real difference in raising the floor. After Buxton and Keaschall the next most likely players to put up a bWAR of 2 or better are Austin Martin (which does require some projection), Jeffers or Wallner (requiring a return to form, but at least they've done it in '23 & '24), or a group of rookies who haven't done anything at all yet (Jenkins, Rodriguez, Fedko, or Gonzalez all could do it...but that's asking a lot for rookies) Can't really bet on it from Roden, Lee (who I still think can be better, but I will admit to possibly fooling myself), Outman (blech), Larnach (if he's even here), or even Clemens (who in a career season at age 29 is still only a touch ahead of Royce). Boy the lineup really let the team down this season. probably why we're looking for hope inside of Royce.
  10. jmlease1
    It's definitely concerning how often Royce has been getting himself out the last 2 seasons. And even while finishing stronger this year, he's basically hacking at everything. he's got to find a more disciplined approach that keeps him from chasing, and start hammering fastballs again. But hopefully the fact that he looks like he's got his legs back under him can help improve his base at the plate. He's doing well in the field, showing off very good range, and now he's running the bases better too. An off-season without needing surgery did wonders for Buxton, maybe it makes a difference for Royce too. He's barely 26, but this is the healthiest season he's had since 2019 (aka, before the knee surgeries) and he's still not cracking 120 games. But if he can finish the season healthy, on a bit of an upswing, and a foundation to build on for next season...the talent is there.
  11. jmlease1
    A little bit of a bummer than Morris' last start was a dud, but it's the only bad outing he's had since coming back from injury in August, so he seems like he's on track. If the Twins hadn't added both Bradley & Abel, I think we would have seen Morris in MLB in 2025. As it is, I'd be very surprised if we don't see him at Target Field in 2026. Fine season for Fedko. First time he hasn't needed a second pass at a level in order to perform well, and that seems important for him. I think there's fair concerns about both his floor and ceiling in MLB, but can't ask for much more from his performance this season. You'd think he'd get a long look in spring training with all of the LH outfield bats we have. Looking forward to seeing where the prospect ranking end up, and the AFL reports (and any winter ball sightings) to get some minor league fixes. Hope springs eternal, and it begins with prospects.
  12. jmlease1
    I would say Raya, Adams, and Ohl for sure. Cory Lewis should probably start thinking about how he could do in relief. Twins have found some reclamation projects in free agency, but when they've spent more significant money it's frequently gone sideways to be sure. (It's not uncommon, considering how fungible so many relievers are) But Kintzler worked out, Coulombe certainly, Belisle was ok, and Fernando Rodney did the job. But Colome, Robles, Reed...none of them worked. They could supplement the bullpen in FA and get it back to functional, but the track record on FA relievers is spotty and they simply can't afford to give a guy $8M per and have him crap out.
  13. jmlease1
    Can't agree that the deepening of the farm system is something that went right in a season gone off the rails, because a) it was part of a surrender flag, and 2) unclear the Twins actually made the right moves. None of Bradley, Abel, Rojas, Outman, or Roden have stepped in and looked impressive. (at this point it doesn't matter if Outman plays well in AAA) Tait and Mendez have shown promise, but they're also the furthest away. A healthy Buxton season, Keaschall looking great, Martin performing...all good. Ryan broke through with first half recognition, but has finished the season poorly, which has been an issue for him. Of course, the bigger issue is the Twins need a lot more than 6 things to go right to start turning the ship.
  14. jmlease1
    Andy MacPhail is 72, has been out of baseball since 2020, and his last stint as team president in Philly he presided over exactly zero winning seasons. Bringing him back is frankly exactly the sort of country club nostalgia play I'd expect from this ownership to try and play a magic show to hide the fact that they're awful at owning a baseball team and are cutting the payroll again.
  15. jmlease1
    Games like this are why you can't quit on Rodriguez. Healthy and locked it he looks like a star. Would be really fun to see him and Jenkins together in MLB. Nice to see him finishing the season strong. How do we keep him on the field and out of the training room? Rojas...better I guess? Still think the team blew it by dropping him in AAA immediately. Lot of arm talent, but still needs a lot of refinement. Looks at least a year away to me, and certainly should be behind a lot of other guys until he shows out better.
  16. jmlease1
    Sounds like you never saw the Ray Miller Experience. Listen, I'd let Rocco go after this season. A change is necessary. But ranking him last is laughable for a franchise that had Goryl, Gardner, and Miller in sequence.
  17. jmlease1
    Probably true. It also sounded important to Vazquez personally to come back and play to finish the season, so i'm not surprised the Twins would honor that. It's a relatively small thing, but it's all part of the "how do you treat veterans" bit for the franchise that starts to matter when you're trying to get a guy to sign with you. The Twins may have cheap, clueless ownership that doesn't give two craps about the fans, but the organization has a pretty good rep around the league for how we treat players. (despite the fans who keep insisting we drove Sonny Gray away...)
  18. jmlease1
    Manager of the Year is frequently given to the manager of the team that most overcomes expectations. YMMV on whether that's appropriate or not, but it's frequently the most defining characteristic. It's also how both Baldelli and Molitor won theirs. Interesting that Gardy was runner-up for so many seasons before winning it in his last season ever as a winning manager...
  19. jmlease1
    I think it's hilarious to see Molitor on this list. What did he actually do as a manager that made him good, other be Paul Molitor, Hall of Fame player? (I'd say that wore off pretty fast) He reportedly had some of the clubhouse conflicts that a lot of great players have when they try their hand at managing, caused by them not understanding how lesser players couldn't just do some of the things that came naturally to him. Molly did a terrible job running a bullpen (we all complained about it around here, and we were right). It may be that his age and level of interest in continuing to manage are what really kept him from another job, but it's also very likely that the rest of baseball saw him as a guy who didn't communicate well to today's player's in a managerial role and may have had the game pass him by. Sneaking into a WC in one season surrounded by 2 bad ones shouldn't get you on this list. Gene Mauch was superior (and better than Baldelli) and should be here, even if he was short timed...he was better than Molitor. Billy Martin was a genius (and an utterly self-destructive maniac and a$$hole; he can be both things) but one season ain't enough, even if it was kind of amazing what he did. Baldelli reminds me a bit of Gardy: when his players are healthy and play well, he looks good, and when they're not and don't every single thing that bothers you about him is magnified times 200. TK Mele Gardy Mauch Baldelli...I guess? (it's not a great or even that long of a list) Putting Rocco last is recency bias and/or showing how much you hate analytics or something. Because come on: Ray Miller. (and Bill Rigney and Billy Gardner were both really bad; look at how fast the Twins fell apart under Rigney, and they still had plenty of talent.)
  20. jmlease1
    I agree with you on Miranda. He's an utter mess. have to wonder if the back & shoulder problems have simply made it impossible for him to generate the kind of swing that used to work for him even with his lack of patience. And I really wonder if even an offseason of rest and strengthening can fix it. He had 2 seasons where he put up an OPS+ of 112 or better. Outman (whom I don't like for the Twins) at least still crushed AAA pitching again when he got sent back down after crashing out. Miranda actually had a better overall track record as a hitter (Outman had one good season and hasn't hit in MLB since; Miranda had two solid ones as a hitter spaced out over 3 seasons) so his utter implosion in AAA is sort of wild. It's a bummer, and I have no idea whether he can get it together. I'd say Julien and Outman have at least somewhat confirmed they're probably Quad A guys. Outman might be able to add enough on D and run into some homers, but the floor is low, the ceiling isn't high any longer and I'd say neither should be with the Twins in 2026. (and I was a big Julien guy. I was wrong. He's too easily exploited at the plate.)
  21. jmlease1
    Yes. He's been awful. He looks nothing like the player who destroyed the minors a few years ago and had success in MLB in 2 separate seasons. I was trying to understand the "unpleasant thoughts about the organization" comment, which read like he was somehow faulting the Twins for his struggles. And possibly the implication that you felt like this was another thing the Twins had screwed up.
  22. jmlease1
    does he have unpleasant thoughts about the organization? Or are we projecting something on a player who has really struggled over a year now. I mean, you're sort of suggesting he's tanking on purpose because of a beef with the Twins, and if that's true than I'd like to see some evidence beyond bad body language and poor effort. Twins gave him chances this season and he stunk. I'm not really sure why he would or should be mad at the club. They've been giving him AAA opportunities to get himself back up, and he's been blowing it there too. I mean, maybe they should have sent him home for the year with a "go get your mind and body right" message, but I have trouble faulting the Twins for how they've handled Miranda. (I can fault them for many other things, don't need to throw this on the fire)
  23. jmlease1
    need more caffeine today. you are correct, of course. boy those splits are rough, though.
  24. jmlease1
    Keaschall started off so hot that it was inevitable that the league would catch up to him at least somewhat. I do think this article has nailed it: how does Keaschall adjust to the adjustment, and can he do that without losing some of the things that have made him special so far. Avoiding a significant sophomore slump, which neither Julien or Miranda did, would be huge for the Twins. The Julien comp only works on a positional and "hot rookie season/sophomore slump" angle, because as hitters the approach is very different. With the kind of aggression and plate coverage we've seen, Miranda is a better comp, but Keaschall still draws a lot more walks than Miranda ever did; the only way for Jose to get up near a .400 OBP was to hit .340. (I've also wondered if Miranda's true downfall is related to injury; he's simply not been the same hitter since missing time in July of 2024; Keaschall's success post significant injury feels like a positive sign for him) It's a really good analysis. You have to think that surrounding him with better/more consistent hitting would help too, giving him some protection. I'd like to see him hitting leadoff or 2nd in the order next season. The other thing to look for is improvement vs LHP. He's struggled like so many LH hitters. I'd say he's got the skill set to make himself into a harder out that's able to hold his own better than many LH sluggers, but going to competent from truly dreadful would make a difference for him too. It's a small sample for sure, but he's absolutely sucked against LHP.
  25. jmlease1
    Rodriguez had a messed up season. Bunch of injuries, none of them major. Power production is way down, but the patience and eye for the strike zone remained intact. He's finishing the season...ok? Not great (again, where did all the power go?) but could be worse. Would winter ball help him by getting some more game ABs in, or does he just need a quiet offseason and opportunity to go to Spring Training healthy? Gonzalez really does deserve consideration for minor league hitter of the year. He's done great at all three levels he played at, and while I'd like to see him show a little more patience at the plate again, the contact skills are shining and he's hitting the ball with authority. He's not some slap hitter and can punish mistakes. I hope the Twins give him a real chance to win a job in 2026. It's exciting to think about him paired with Jenkins, and a 5-man OF of Buxton, Jenkins, GG, Martin, and (eventually) Rodriguez could be a a really strong and flexible OF that hits, runs, and defends.
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