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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I've been a Larnach stan for a long time, but...he's not really getting it done. He's purely a platoon bat, and when you have that limitation a .740 OPS doesn't really cut it. That's competent, but not good and I think you need to have good when you can't hit the other side basically at all. And he's below average defensively at this point, having already gotten slower. The arm is fine, but not plus, so he's basically a one-tool player whose tool ain't that sharp. Maybe he murders RHP the rest of the season and lines himself up better, but unless he's got an OPS over .800 against RHP... Someone will take a chance on him next season, but not for $4M, I bet, so trading him away means giving something else up, which seems like a mistake. He's gotten his chances and hasn't progressed. I'm sure injuries held him back; he's only been healthy 2 of the past 5 seasons, and the missed pandemic year in 2020 right when he was looking his most promising probably didn't help either. He's not bad or anything, but the twins clearly need more.
  2. jmlease1
    I wish, but the Mauer Experience is instructive to how some people behave. Same with Buxton. two of the most gifted Twins of my lifetime and people seem itching to crap on them. (I'll never forgive Dan Barreiro and his ilk for leading the charge against Mauer because he took too many walks and didn't have enough RBIs. 🙄)
  3. jmlease1
    If you're a MN Twin and you make a big contract, you'd better perform, not just up to the value of the contract but above and beyond it because there's nothing that will turn MN Twins fans on a player faster than making a ton of money and not performing like it every single night. Injuries will be treated as personal failings and the player will be pilloried for their contract (as if it wasn't market rate when signed) as if they player had somehow blackmailed the team into to paying them. I loved having Correa here and was thrilled when they made the move. It didn't end up working out, and the "trade" they made was a fairly embarrassing salary dump, but I loved watching Correa. Healthy, he was the most complete SS we've probably ever had in a Twins uniform, and even when his metrics were sliding defensively he was still a delight to watch in the field. The arm, the positioning...loved it. The "let's hate Correa" nonsense some are doing now is just silly, and I hope Twins fans don't boo him when he returns to Target Field. I certainly won't.
  4. jmlease1
    It is a fair point: filling the SS position for more than a year or two has been a big issue for the Twins over the last 30 years. It's partly why the Twins keep drafting SS every year. Even if Brooks Lee is passable at SS we're still putting a lot of faith in Culpepper (which may be warranted) because Marek Houston may not hit enough, they're moving De Andrade off, and Winokur probably can't stick there which continue to show the challenges of finding a SS who can be at least average and hold down the position for more than 1-2 seasons. I'm probably a little more hopeful than you about Brooks Lee being able to be an acceptable solution for the next 1-2 seasons beyond this, but it's a real issue. Having terrible shortstops sucks.
  5. jmlease1
    If they're having those guys working on pitches right now it might make more sense to have them do it in AAA rather than MLB. Bradley is trying to find his change/split again, which he needs to be effective and consistent and might need more game reps with it. Abel seems to be working on deploying a sweeper. They might get beaten around if they try it in MLB and it's certainly easier to tell a guy (and the catcher calling the game) to keep throwing something whether it's working or not in the minors than the majors I would think? Not sure it's a big deal.
  6. jmlease1
    Hopefully this is a good trend towards good consistent defense from Royce at 3B. Overall he seems to be passing the eye test over there, so it's good to see some statistical information that lend credence to it. It's been much less concerning to see Royce charging in on a ball this season and then unleashing a throw to 1B; in 2024 we really needed Carlos Santana over there! (while France was disappointing overall, I do think he did a nice job at making scoops) But it's still less of a feeling you're in the line of fire for anyone sitting up the 1B line this year? At the end of the day, Royce is going to have to hit to stick, but he's starting to look like a quality defensive option at 3B again after a very wobbly defensive season in 2024.
  7. jmlease1
    I'm consistently baffled by the people who run down Wallner and act like he's not a quality bat. I get that aesthetically the K's might not be pleasing to people, but the dude murders RHP and his power production in the heart of the lineup makes this a much more dangerous team. Even in a down season he's posting a 121 OPS+ and he has a career OPS+ of 133. That's really really good. I don't mind Gasper being on the squad right now; let's find out definitively if he can play or if he's a Quad A guy. I suspect he's a Quad A guy, but with Vazquez out if he can be ok behind the plate and hit a little he might actually have a role here if he can hit. Maybe he can't, but give him some consistent run and let's find out. (also? Hope the recovery goes well for Vazquez. an infection spreading is kind of scary stuff. Seems like a good dude too who will immediately step into a coaching role if he wants it) Remarkable start from Keaschall. Just amazing. Eventually he's going to slow down and have some 0-fers, but this is a fun ride, and he's looked fine at 2B. The arm is a little wobbly so far; he's gotten it done but he's had some easy throws be off target, hasn't shown a lot of arm strength, etc. Hopefully that irons out with reps and as he builds up strength after the injuries and long layoff. But his range looks pretty good so far and the glove looks plenty good enough. Brooks Lee is a key question going down the stretch. Right now, he's the only qualified SS on the roster (with all due respect to Fitz) and expecting Culpepper to be ready to take over in 2026 is a high-risk proposition. Culpepper might actually be ready at that point, it's certainly possible with how well he's shown out in his first full professional season...but no one should be shocked if he ends up needing more development time. If Lee can show better offense and solid defense at SS down the stretch it puts the team in a much better position to bring up Culpepper on his schedule rather than out of desperation, even if Lee is ultimately better suited to being a utility player.
  8. jmlease1
    I think this is right. Jenkins missed a bunch of time early in the season but he's been playing consistently since with no trouble. He'll get over 75 games in, so I don't think the Twins are going to look at it as necessary that he go to the AFL just to get game time in. (If he was going to finish the season with only 30, they might feel differently) I'm increasingly of the opinion that Larnach gets non-tendered as well; he simply hasn't developed enough as a hitter, and a LH platoon bat with no real defensive value simply isn't worth a lot. And with the Pohalds possibly still being in charge of payroll, it's also not where you want to spend $4M... In conclusion, Eff the Pohlads and Sell the Team!
  9. jmlease1
    well, this is the sort of story that comes out after a trade where someone throws a little dirt on a guy so the deal looks better. It also might be true, and a reminder that just because a player might have a public bulldog image where they "only care about wins" and will do anything for the team...they also still might care a lot about their stats, especially behind the scenes.
  10. jmlease1
    This is the sort of thing people "find" when they've already decided they don't want a player on the team. Suddenly the body language is bad, they don't hustle, blah blah blah. Never heard anything bad about Julien as a teammate. And of course everything looks great on Keaschall's intangibles: he can't miss at the plate. When was the last time you saw bad body language on a player hitting .400?
  11. jmlease1
    Was watching the Saints game, since I couldn't watch the Twins. GG absolutely murdered that ball, a no doubt HR that out of the park everywhere. nothing wind-aided or band-boxy about it. Like it. Abel was interesting: you could see the arm talent, but he just wasn't locating consistently. Battled pretty well. Miranda looked bad at the plate IMHO, hitting those weak grounders, and basically looking lifeless. Even the announcers are like "Jose Miranda just wants this nightmare season to end". Keep on rolling Walker Jenkins. And stay healthy, please!
  12. jmlease1
    Is it possible for a player to win Rookie of the Year only playing about 2 months or so of the season? Luke Keaschall sure seems to want it, lol. Heck of a start to his MLB career. Whatever happens, happens, but why not enjoy the ride? Sure is fun. Urena is a pitcher I'm uninterested in seeing again. (well, appearing again, since I couldn't watch the broadcast anyway because the Twins are awesome at dumb business decisions) Pure luck he didn't bury the team from the jump and I don't want to bet on luck. KC is going to be kicking themselves; they drew 8 walks and only scored 3 runs. Oof. (I'm sort of amazed that Sal Perez didn't destroy us; even if he's on the downside of his career, even if he's in a bit of a slump, I just sort of assume he's going to come up big against us. As a baseball fan, you'd want him to stick around forever, but as a Twins fan I can't wait for him to retire. Dude terrifies me) Congrats to Fitz on the dinger.
  13. jmlease1
    I mostly agree with this, though I would say Miranda has done nothing in AAA to earn a recall. I wouldn't bring him up regardless of where his options are: no scholarships. He's having a horrific season, for whatever reason. Maybe he's never really gotten back from the shoulder/back injuries. Maybe he's just not that good. Maybe his head needs re-wiring. (feels like a lot from column A, plus some column B, and maybe a little column C) but regardless: he has to earn his way back and he simply has not done it. There's other guys who are more deserving right now. I'd rather give guys like Fitzgerald or Prato a look over rewarding Miranda for his crap play. I'm increasingly of the belief that Larnach won't be back next season (he's purely a platoon bat at this point, adds no defense, and is due an increase in arbitration) so seeing what Roden can do is worth it. I wasn't high on him, but would be happy to be proven wrong. Maybe Outman shows enough in AAA that he gets another look, but I'd make him earn it too. McCusker has done more this season (though he's been dreadful lately and has had an awful summer after fast start). I would also say figuring out more of what you have with Bradley, Matthews, Festa, Morris and Abel as starters (and to some extent SWR) would help mitigate the failures of 2025 (I can't call it a "success" regardless; this team was picked to contend for the division, and should have at least been in the WC fight and they simply didn't play up to spec. That's a failure, and the sell-off was deserved. The injuries hurt, but there are always going to be injuries, and frankly the Twins didn't get beat up badly enough this season on the injury front to let them off the hook for their record.)
  14. jmlease1
    Good to see Morris back and throwing hard. I like his upside, hope he can finish out the year strong and be an option for next season. Walker Jenkins ain't slowing down at all. Love to see it. Debarge is really struggling right now, he's really fallen off after a good first 2 months. The steals don't mean all that much when you're hitting 3 for 28 with zero xbhs. He really needs some kind of reset. Dasan Hill is an intriguing prospect. If he can pull those walks into something more manageable, he'll get pretty interesting, but right now he's all arm talent. Worth watching, but long way to go.
  15. jmlease1
    Fitzgerald is really just insurance because they don't have anyone else on the roster who can play SS. What are they going to do, throw Martin in there? I mean, I guess they could have called up Eeles, but he wasn't going to play either, because they want to see how Lee does every day at SS. But with Correa and Castro both gone, there's no other real SS on the roster and they're not going to want things to go sideways if Lee rolls an ankle in the 3rd inning. Call it a reward for Fitz for being a good organizational player.
  16. jmlease1
    Last night's game is a reminder that it's hard to put up runs with no extra base hits. Twins offense is impressively bad against LHP, never did any real damage. Royce had a bad game at the plate, but no one did well with runners in scoring position. If you're relying on 2-out hits to get runs, you're going to have plenty of games where you come up short. Ober did pretty well, looked more like the guy we've seen over the past 3 seasons, which is nice against KC, because they have killed him before.
  17. jmlease1
    I suspect people would sour on him quickly in CF. As a corner OF who can also play 1B, he might get a chance, but I'm still not sure about his bat. He had a very nice run in AA and earned his promotion, and while BA isn't everything, it's a little concerning that even in a good season he was hitting .253 and hasn't always hit for much power. He does seems to have good judgment on the strike zone, so we'll see how it translates. If he can hit, he'll get a look, I think because a RH who can play 1B and the OF is a need for the Twins right now. But he'll need that bat.
  18. jmlease1
    Fedko has the kind of track record that will keep him from ever appearing on any national prospect lists. He's needed to repeat levels to figure them out (it will be interesting if he can keep his roll on this season after earning his promotion to AAA) which is why he's not getting his first crack at AAA until 25. He's not really a CF, but does fine in the corners. Just not sure he's going to be a good enough hitter to make the leap. But he earned the chance in AAA. Walker Jenkins looks great. Just want him to finish off the season healthy. The power seems to be developing and he's a very tough out. Not bad at 20 years old! Rosario has had an interesting season. Brutal start in April where he looked almost unplayable, followed by very good output in May & June (very nice K/BB numbers with good power), a bit of a lull in July where he was swinging too much and not making enough contact, but the power kept him above water, and now he looks locked in again in August. I wonder what the organization thinks of him at this point? If he finishes off this season well, he should be tracked to go to Saint Paul next season, and he's just barely turned 23...
  19. jmlease1
    I guess Keaschall has no intention of slowing down. Hey, good for him. He's definitely got a little of that energizer to him. At some point the grounders through the infield are going to stop going through every time, but he's still got a good approach at the plate and all signs are good I think. He looks fine at 2B as well with good range and a solid glove. Still some concerns about the arm, but that might improve just through getting the reps in. Roden did well again; hopefully he just needed some time to settle in. I'd love to be wrong about him and that he's more than just a Quad A player. It does look like the Twins see him as being a replacement for Larnach? Great to see the offense clicking like this. Jeffers is locked in at the plate right now and looked great (less great on that throw he airmailed to CF, but they got through it). Little surprised to see Wallner catching flack for getting rung up on that 3-2 pitch and being mad about it; maybe it nicked the corner, but also looked like it might have never actually touched the plate. The ump's reaction on it makes me back Wallner: he was slow to make the call, waited until Wallner started to walk to first, and then stumbled in his actual strike call as if he wasn't actually sure he had it right. That kind of crap is going to tick off the player and make him more certain that the ump got it wrong, and I don't blame him. A good win. Ryan is always fun to watch pitch. I'm going to be furious if he gets traded in the offseason; he's the kind of player to extend, not deal. Please sell the team!
  20. jmlease1
    Bad comp. I know Sano is persona non grata with a lot of Twins fans, but before the injuries ruined him, Sano was a good hitter and put up impactful numbers. His value was limited because of his poor defense and his career was ruined by injuries (yes, much more than the weight) but his minor league numbers translated into an impact hitter...for a while.
  21. jmlease1
    You're presuming that you can make a player be effective in a role just by deciding on the role and having them do it. There's a very interesting question to see whether some of the rotation options we have might be effective/more effective if they were pitching 3-4 innings more often than as a starter but less often than they would be as a 1-inning reliever and fill a different type of role. Long relievers have existed for a long time in baseball, but in the modern era if a team has one on their roster, they're usually treated as a low leverage pitcher that's only there to throw and absorb innings in a blow out situation of some type. Part of what's intriguing about some of this idea is seeing whether there are players who could fit into this type of role in higher leverage positions as well. I'm intrigued by the possibilities of piggybacking some of our younger/less experienced starters for the rest of the season both to evaluate where they are against MLB talent but also to see whether some of them might thrive pitching a little more often but a little less. If even one emerges as someone who can fairly reliably give 3 innings twice a week for the future, that could be a very useful role to save the bullpen, carry the team through the middle innings if someone goes "5 and Fly" (or a bit less), etc. Part of the question this season is how many rotation type guys need MLB innings to get the evaluation and development they need this season. Bradley, Abel, Rojas, Matthews, Festa, SWR, Ohl, and Adams are all contenders for this, but how many of them might be better off just pitching in the rotation at AAA while they work on stuff/get evaluated by Twins staff? I think that's a harder question. Ohl & Adams fascinate me right now, because they both have had stretches where they looked great/effective and stretches where they looked incapable of pitching at the MLB level. Part of the book on Bradley coming in was he needed to get his change back in order; should he be working on it at AAA or MLB? Rojas has lots of arm talent, but needs refinement and innings, and with so little experience above A-ball might not be well-suited to test-driving a new role in MLB. Matthews & Festa have good upside, but it seems like they need to be tested going deeper in games more than anything. I will say, the remainder of the season is the time to be creative, because they're unlikely to make some kind of crazy run and get back in contention with the shambolic bullpen we have.
  22. jmlease1
    I would not be saying call him up if he had crushed those first 5 games either; I think you've read and commented on enough of my posts to a) know better, and 2) not put words in my mouth. GG started this season in A-ball after having an unimpressive season where he battled injuries. He's already on his 3rd level this season, having earned 2 very deserving promotions. What's the benefit to throwing him in the fire one more level up at 21? Appeasing the fanbase? They can do that by selling the team. Keaschall is a reasonable comp, but notably did NOT jump from A-ball to MLB in the same season. And even without the surgery, it seems unlikely that he would have skipped past AAA entirely in 2024. We'll never know if the Twins would have tried to call him up during the collapse last season if he'd been healthy, but at least going for the playoffs might have made it justifiable. Why do it now? The argument for calling up GG right now mostly seems to be "screw Roden, Gasper, Larnach, Outman, etc I wanna move on to 2026 now!" rather than what might actually be best for his development.
  23. jmlease1
    I think this is right. Didn't really hold back Keaschall to not play in AAA last season. If Culpepper can replicate his development track (without the injuries) that would be spectacular. It's going great for Culpepper right now. Love to see it. Going to be fun seeing prospect evaluators change their tune on him.
  24. jmlease1
    I'm betting that the biggest difference-maker for GG is simply good health this season. No injuries, fully healed at 21 and he's shown excellent development. For the people already wanting him in MLB: he hasn't exactly crushed it out the gate in Saint Paul. .558 OPS in a hitter's ballpark and hitter's league isn't someone that should be thrown into the fire in MLB at 21. Let's give him the proper development time, let him adjust to the new level (hopefully when he settles down he'll start showing the patience he had earlier in the season, along with a little more pop in his bat; right now his BA is higher than his OBP, so he's got some work to do). I'm a fan, but it would be malpractice to call him up right now. Let him finish the season in AAA, continue to work on his defense in the outfield, show he can be the guy who earned his promotions at the plate, and put himself in contention to be in the running with a strong spring next season. Twins need his right-handed bat for sure, but letting him get his butt kicked in MLB (and he will right now) when he's scrabbled a bit in his first few games in AAA and still has things to work on isn't going to help him out.
  25. jmlease1
    well, that's why I said he's in Saint Paul on scholarship: he hasn't really earned his way up there based on performance, but on arm talent and projection of what he can be. Considering how little AA time he's had, it feels a little like PR to drop him in AAA right now ("we know you're pissed about Varland going out, but this super-talented prospect guy is close to the majors, we swear!"). So hard to evaluate catchers, especially in the low minors. They don't exactly get much help from the pitchers in controlling the running game (which is one of the reasons you have to pump the brakes on players with gaudy steal numbers at that level too) so I don't know that I'm that worried about Tait's ability there yet. I've heard he's got enough arm at least? (and did throw out 32% of guys in Low-A this season) Hopefully he looks comfortable back there, sets up a decent target, and passes the basic eye test for now. Would love to keep hearing more about how he looks back there, because if he can be solid defensively it would be a big win.
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