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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    agree on basically all of this. I think it would be very encouraging if the twins could & would lock up Ryan for the next 5-7 seasons (and I feel like the risk is fairly low, as these things go). I just fear that Cheap Pohlad payrolls make it more likely that he gets tendered and traded. Hope the scenarios you propose above come to pass. Even if Ryan isn't a true #1 (YMMV on him) he's still a guy who can anchor your rotation and be predictable in the kind of performances you can expect. I'd really hate to lose that. Plus, I really enjoy watching Ryan pitch.
  2. jmlease1
    I hope the Twins don't tender Joe Ryan. Because I'm hoping that they work out a long-term deal for 3-5 seasons. I recognize that I'm probably living in fantasy land. (we have ice cream cake here, so it's nice)
  3. jmlease1
    There's no question Royce was running better and looked much more comfortable doing it late in the season. I agree he won't likely ever get elite speed back, but if he can avoid leg injuries for once he can be an above average runner. The big question is whether or not he can make contact without swinging at everything. His month-by-month splits are interesting, if not exactly encouraging, for July-Oct. July was kind of the old Royce: hitting well, making hard contact, taking a few walks but not a lot. August was a mess: little contact, more walks, but no pop. Sept/Oct he started making contact again, but was swinging at everything (1 walk in the last 25 games? Oof.) Is he serious about hitting or guessing out there? I was pleased to see the improvement on defense; he looked much more sound and confident out there in the second half of the season, and didn't seem to be taking his troubles at the plate out into the field. Obviously, he gets tendered. Hopefully he can get on a good off-season program that gets him in a better place at the plate and with a strong and healthy lower half going into spring training. The talent is still there, and it's hard to believe that he simply won't hit if he can avoid significant leg injuries.
  4. jmlease1
    We should not. And no one, literally no one should believe anything anyone associated with Twins ownership says about the team's finances without access to the books and a forensic accountant. Sorry, Tom Pohlad: you're a nice guy, but your family has no credibility on this issue. Hells bells, no owner in pro sports have any credibility when it comes to finances. They will always slant things in whatever way is most beneficial to them at the time. Do I believe the Twins were on pace to lose $40M last season? Not really. And frankly, any losses they may have been taking were a result of their own mismanagement (media rights debacles, lack of business acumen to grow the team's popularity, reportedly loading it up with debt to avoid a capital call, inflating the payroll and then cutting it off...the list is long) If they want to lean in more on defense and speed on the baseball side...ok, I guess? It's a strategy choice, and maybe they'll get in the right players to do it. But the bigger issue is if Twins Way 2.0 is really just "bottom 5 payrolls until the union throws a fit".
  5. jmlease1
    On the one hand, they were part of some good success here. On the other hand they were both already here, and maybe we need a fresh voice more than a turn back to the good ol' days voice. I don't think you can blame Shelton for all the ills of Pittsburgh, but they did get the new manager bounce when he was sacked.
  6. jmlease1
    I'd bet Naylor getting 4 for $70M before Arraez a) getting 5 years, or 2) getting $70M. Maybe I'm completely wrong, but there was so little interest in him at $14M on an expiring last winter that I have trouble seeing anyone re-upping him for 5 years at the same rate. But Naylor is definitely getting more and for longer.
  7. jmlease1
    oh, I hear you. for some reason, pitcher injuries always seem worse. I'm not going to pretend this is entirely rational.
  8. jmlease1
    I think Rod Carew would have been all over modern analytics. This was a guy who adjusted his batting stance based on who he was facing on the mound, and very clearly thought a lot about what he was doing in the batter's box. Don't know about Oliva? Analytics like this can be really helpful for players that can incorporate it into their work. Jeffers has always seemed interested. The trick is always in translating the information into something that's actionable for the player. But that's no different than any of the old-school methods of improving a player's swing or results at the plate: what can the coach tell them that they can use to improve? For some guys, seeing the data helps them commit to an adjustment. Understanding the why makes it easier to try something different. Other might need a different approach, but that can still be based in data and information rather than being purely about vibes.
  9. jmlease1
    It's a real issue. While it does happen that great players can also be good/great managers, but often the skillsets are too different and the all-star player can't translate the things that made them great for other (lesser) talents. Many can't explain how they did something: they just did it. Now, some players who were thought of as great leaders can be CEO type managers who work the clubhouse and the media and leave the tactical and skills prep to their coaches. I think you see this in the NBA a fair amount, but the great players still flame out a lot too. For every Jason Kidd there's an Isiah Thomas. Molitor was manager of the year...but also got fired and never took another managerial job. YMMV on whether he worked out as manager? But that's a hall of famer who took a managerial job in the last decade. I think most great players aren't interested in the grind of managing, along with the travel, once they're in retirement.
  10. jmlease1
    No. If his arm might not play at 2B, it's not going to play at 3B. He's more likely to shift to 1B or OF than 3B. But Lewis' defense was looking good again at 3B, especially in the second half as he really got his legs under him. Moving him seems unlikely.
  11. jmlease1
    I both want the special arm and fear taking them. I would love to get a front-line college starter who could step in almost immediately. And I'd probably be too scared to take them! Oh, the injury risk... :P
  12. jmlease1
    It'll be interesting to see where Winokur, Mendez, and Amick are after a couple of weeks in the AFL. Feels like they all have some things to prove. And it should be a good test for Winokur & Amick in particular.
  13. jmlease1
    He seems like an interesting candidate? He certainly ground his way up, which you have to respect. Maybe that would help him understand the struggles young players have in adjusting to new levels of competition, and we're certainly going to be seeing a bunch of those guys. He does sound well-rounded, rather than someone known for doing one or two things really well, but who knows. I'd be surprised if the Red Sox didn't let him interview. And frankly, it would be a real knock against their organization if they didn't.
  14. jmlease1
    I don't hate Arraez, I just think he's got a limited skill set that doesn't help the Twins enough. I agree that Clemens shouldn't be getting a lot of time on a good team: he's a useful bench player who can swat some homers, get on a hot streak, and play credible defense at several positions. But I think we're keeping him for next season, so part of the equation at 1B is how can he be deployed optimally? With Arraez on the team, there's really no 1B time outside of defensive replacement that makes much sense. That's part of why Andujar might be a good fit: he pounds LHP, he might be able to play a quality 1B with reps, and while he's best at hammering LHP, he's not helpless against RHP so you don't have to put him in a strict platoon, which can help you from over-exposing someone like Clemens. Comping Arraez's OBP to Buxton's doesn't really help here: Buxton is a far superior all-around player, so finding a stat where Arraez looks the same to an all-star CF doesn't really sell me any more on Arraez; instead it says to me that Arraez needs to be able to do more things well to be anywhere near Buxton's level. With Wallner, it's not really even a question of which one is "better": we have Wallner under team control for cheap, he's got some useful skill sets that can make him a useful/valuable RF/DH. We shouldn't be picking between Arraez & Wallner. And as much as the Twins have needed more contact-oriented players the last couple of seasons, with Keaschall & Martin in the lineup, we do have more of that in place now. But if you were adding another contact heavy guy, wouldn't you want them to have the speed to go with it? Arraez isn't a bad player, but he's limited. Would he be getting any real consideration if he weren't a former Twin?
  15. jmlease1
    Justin Lebron is interesting, but the step back he took in SEC play is a little worrisome. Feels like there's a real step down after Cholowsky from the college ranks? But is that because Cholowsky just looks like such a can't miss star prospect or because the other guys are lesser talents? Interesting question. And some people might like the way they see Lebron's tools translating and value his quickness. Seems like things are really open right now after Cholowsky.
  16. jmlease1
    I think Adams and Ohl are interesting options for middle relief, and have potential to do better. I would definitely be looking at Raya for a relief role; he's got the stuff and seems less and less likely to make it as a starter. Funderburk did well enough to have a role, but I would prefer he not be the only LHP in the bullpen. If you keep Topa & Sands there's still 2-3 spots you need to fill, and those need to be back-end guys not middle relievers. Just don't know if they're ready to move anyone from the Festa/Mathews/Bradley/Morris/Abel group into the bullpen yet, and I understand the reluctance. I'd like to see them spend $15-20M on the bullpen (for once) to get a quality set-up guy, someone with experience closing games, and a LH option in some combination. That, plus Sands, Topa, Ohl, Adams, and Funderburk takes this bullpen from disaster zone to acceptable...with potential for more if guys like Adams or Ohl show an ability to step up, and someone like Raya is able to be a quality reinforcement for the inevitable injury/ineffectiveness of someone in the 'pen. I don't think there's a good path to a quality bullpen internally alone. They burned it down too far for that, and there needs to be some outside infusions to support the internal candidates. (even finding a Sergio Romo type would help)
  17. jmlease1
    It's fascinating when someone becomes so blinded by hatred and/or contempt like this that they can't see any possible way for a person to do anything correctly. The idea that a managerial candidate from another organization can't possibly be good because Falvey might like them is pretty wild.
  18. jmlease1
    Listen, you're the one who brought up Arraez vs Goldschmidt. The knock on Arraez is he hasn't produced that well for the past two seasons. He's currently showing exactly one skill: contact. Now, he's elite at it and it generates a lot of hits for him, but he's giving you nothing else. He doesn't walk, he doesn't hit for power, he doesn't run, he doesn't defend...and he only does his one big skill against RHP. That's a limited player. I'm not going to pretend Wallner isn't a limited player: he is. He's not a good fielder, despite a superior arm, and when it's going badly for him he's a K machine. But he's also cheap and a very reasonable candidate for a rebound, since 2025 was far and away his worst season in MLB (I think we can ignore the cup of coffee he got in 2022). You're talking about giving Arraez $15M. Diaz & Andujar are both better fits at 1B for the Twins. Diaz is a poor defender, but he fits with Clemens backing him up, being a defensive replacement late in games, and letting Diaz hit. Notably, Diaz had exactly 6 fewer hits than Arraez, while taking a lot more walks and clouting 25 dingers to boot. But it's a fairly big assumption that TB will decline the $12M option, considering how well he played last season. Andujar is an interesting option. He's got limited experience at 1B, but he's also a player who might do better getting off 3B and trying to play OF and just sliding in as a 1B/DH guy. He's appeared there, even if the experience is limited. Last season's hitting might have been a high point, though; he really struggled for 4 seasons in a row before finally getting back on track a bit in 2023. So there's some risk that he's more of a 105-110 OPS+ guy rather than a 125 thumper. But he's got a fine track record of hitting LHP and can hold up ok against RHP, allowing the team to mix and match with Clemens (whom I presume will be on the team). I suspect his price tag will be more in the $6-8M range, which might actually fit the Cheap Pohald Payroll. I'd certainly prefer someone like Naylor (even if he's a LH hitter who isn't great against LHP) but Naylor has likely priced himself out of the Twins market.
  19. jmlease1
    Giving Arraez $15M per season is a fireable offense. I know he's a super likable dude and was a very popular ex-Twin, and he's extra appealing to the "strikeouts are the greatest evil in the baseball universe" crowd, but he's not a great choice for 1B for almost any team and especially bad as a fit for the Twins. And $15M? Why would anyone give him a raise at this point? Which is more likely: Arraez returns to his 2023 form at 29 with bad knees, or continues as he's been the last 2 seasons? Arraez has really reduced the number of walks he takes and basically swings at everything now. It's great that he led the NL in hits, but not great that his OBP was in the Wallner/Larnach/France range. He's got little to no pop in his bat (in part because he's swinging at everything with a lot of weak contact), has zero speed, and is poor defensively at 1B (he's a tiny elf, no exactly getting a big target to throw at). He really shouldn't play 2B at all any longer, either, but thankfully we don't really have a need there. But for the Twins, he's an especially poor fit, because he simply doesn't hit LHP (and has never hit LHP) which means you can't even do a split with someone like Clemens that makes any sense. There's a reason SD was trying to dump his salary last season, and I doubt they're going to make much effort to bring him back. If anyone gives him $15M per season, I'll eat my hat.
  20. jmlease1
    I think he's a solid middle reliever and $2M is a reasonable rate. The injury issues are the biggest concern there, but I'd say it's still worth the risk there coming off a pretty healthy season. Considering how there's a real possibility of how many spots are potentially getting filled with inexperienced relievers (Adams, Ohl, Raya, maybe Festa, etc) who are not just inexperience at being MLB players but inexperienced at being relievers, really...having a vet presence in Topa who has already been here isn't the worst idea. Pay the $2M, don't try and play games with arbitration to (maybe) chisel out $150K.
  21. jmlease1
    It's a little amusing to see Aaron Boone's name here as a potential comp when Yankees fans are ready to fire him into the sun. Torii might be fine. He's the risk/reward candidate, I think? The vibes would definitely change, which would help. The real question is what happens if/when the team has their first losing streak (and if the Cheap Pohlads stick him with a payroll under $100M, they will have a long losing streak at some point, possibly many of them) or something like that. Will Torii play to the media or his team? There's evidence from him as a player that he might play to the media, but he's also older, more experienced, and no longer a player. So you don't know. The people looking for a different type of tactician or for less general strategy to be directed from the front office will probably be disappointed. The people who expect the manager to be spending lots of time themself drilling players on the fundamentals will also likely be disappointed. The people who want a little more fire and more interesting interviews from the manager are likely to be happier. I do think the team would be wise to pair a manager like Torii with an experienced hand as a bench coach. Personally, I think Torii Hunter would be a manager whose flaws will be minimized when his players are healthy and performing well and maximized when they're injured and underperforming. Which applies to a lot of the league.
  22. jmlease1
    I agree that the Twins should be able to find a 1B at a reasonable price that fits even their limited budgets (and frankly they should be able to spend a decent amount rather than just dumpster dive unless the Cheap Pohlads are bound and determined to clear an 8 figure profit for themselves and their new partners in year 1 of this limited whateverness). But whoof, there's a lot of dumpster diving on that list. Guys to avoid: Santana (really be betting on a bounce back at his age of 912?), France (who defended well, hit poorly), Bell (a butcher in the field), Wade (poor 1B and really sucked last season), Tellez (probably worse than Clemens), Turner (probably cooked at 41 and retiring), Moncada (never played 1B), Hoskins (hasn't been the same player since a serious injury), and Goldschmidt (hit the age wall and rep will overprice him). Increasingly it looks like there's 2 guys at the top of the market in Alonso & Naylor (probably out of the Cheap Pohlad league). The Japanese guys would be showing some creativity. Could we land either? No idea, but it's intriguing. Best of the rest: Mountcastle (who swings at everything), Diaz & Andujar (not good defensively, but they can hit and do it from the right side), Arraez (bad defender, unplayable against LHP, declining), and O'Hearn (not great defensively either, wish he was RH). Diaz, if he's let go by TB ($12M isn't unreasonable, but it's TB) might still be gettable? Andujar might hit enough to be worth a shot and maybe getting him permanently at 1B ticks the D up? If the Cheap Pohlads don't tank the payroll completely (I can't believe I'm begging for a payroll of $125M from these greedy twerps) I'd go hard at Diaz (if TB lets him walk) or Andujar early and get a RH 1B on a 2-year deal if they'll go for it. Might be a little too high on Andujar, but he's going to thump LHP, can hold up on RHP well enough (and get spelled by someone like Clemens) and there's a little more upside there. Diaz will hit. Won't do a lot else, but...
  23. jmlease1
    Best player available. Would love to get Cholowsky; everything about him to date screams "star quality". And I don't worry about position for the draft: guys this good will get on the field. I'd love to have the problem of deciding who should be the long-term SS for the Twins, Culpepper or Cholowsky.
  24. jmlease1
    I think there's a good argument for Carlos Correa to be on this list. Sure, he wasn't as straight-up bad as some other players, but he was the highest paid player at the start of the season and by bWAR barely managed to get himself above replacement level while starting 93 games. The difference between expectation and performance was really high. Adams wasn't good, of course, but he only threw 33 innings and showed signs of life as a 1 inning reliever late in the year. I'd swap Adams for Correa. I mean, Brooks Kriske really stunk, but it was 12 innings after the season had reached "It doesn't matter anymore" stage. Outman was dreadful, but did it matter, other than making people angry that we brought him in at all? Sucks seeing Brooks Lee on this list. I've been very high on him, and he hasn't shown out in MLB yet at all. I haven't given up on him yet, but next season is a big one for him.
  25. jmlease1
    Easy choice to tender. What his specific role should be in the Twins bullpen in 2026 is a little more murky, but there's no question he'll be part of it. I feel like he could actually do well as a classic 9th inning guy, rather than maybe being a "fireman" deployed against the heart of a lineup in late & close regardless of whether it's the 7th, 8th, or 9th. But YMMV.
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