jmlease1

The projections assume Ryan & Lopez are here in 2026, since they're on the roster. They assume regression to the mean for veteran players, so guys with down seasons like Wallner or Lewis will be projected to have a return to form. It doesn't care about inexperience in late-inning roles for bullpen pitchers, only what they might be able to do statistically in some role without presuming that they'll be better or worse in lower or higher leverage roles. But these projections are often a reasonable evaluation of the overall talent level of a team. It's not that hard to quint and see the opportunity for this team to bounce back quickly and stop sucking. It's just hard for anyone around here not to believe that our terrible owners are going to force a trade of Lopez/Ryan/Buxton, or that we're going to continue to have bad luck with injuries, or our young players will not take a leap forward when needed. Pessimism reigns around here because ownership has put such a black cloud over the fandom. (and the tone-deaf front office hasn't done enough to justify their apparent job security)

Is that actually true? Because of all the LH hitters that played for the Twins in 2025 only Keirsey is listed as being left-handed as a thrower. Wallner, Larnach, Outman, Julien, Clemens, and Fitzgerald are all listed on B-Ref as throwing righty. If you throw LH you're probably going to hit LH, but I don't think the reverse is true

Yeah, they need to sort through this pile, which is why it's surprising to see what are likely to be really short assets spent on Larnach, who provides no defensively value and is a platoon player with seemingly minimal upside at this point. Of course, I'm of the camp that thinking Outman should not be on the 40-man, and if you stripped those 2 off the roster, then we're much less overloaded, though we still need to actually find out who can play and who can't. Wallner (who could shift to more of a DH role), Roden, Rodriguez (who has injury issues), Jenkins (who is still a baby), and Mendez (who is likely getting time at 1B) as a collective seems to provide both opportunity and depth in reasonable measures. If Larnach and Outman are both on the 26-man, then we have a log-jam for playing time AND low ceiling players grabbing too much PT. They need a RH bat who can play 1B, DH, or COF. they don't need more LF COF until at least 2 of Rodriguez, Jenkins, Roden, and Mendez have proven they can't play in MLB.

There were also cases being made for McKay, who has been a total bust and is out of baseball. Greene looks like he's figured it out, but has injury issues of his own. Gore had his first good season last year. But please tell me who exactly it was around here that was able to accurately predict the injury history for any of the top 5 picks in that draft before they happened? Royce's issue has been injuries and not staying on the field; even last season he only made 106 games. yes, he struggled, but that's also after having how many injuries? Rays went over slot on McKay. think they feel great about it now? Braves went over slot on Wright, and probably thought they had something after 2024. After 2025, when he was injured and terrible, they might feel a little less good. Notably, the Rays in 2017 couldn't sign their late first round pick, who went back to college and probably cost himself about $1.5M after falling to the 6th round the next year. Rays also went over slot on their second round pick, much like the Twins did with Enlow, for Mercado, who spent 5 years in their system doing nothing before getting dealt for next to nothing. He's been bad and can currently be had for likely a minor league deal assuming he doesn't move on in life. Twins didn't really do anything wrong in the 2017 draft; it just hasn't worked out for Royce so far. If he comes back and has a good and healthy season in 2026 they're still doing ok. (and notably, 2017 was when they found Bailey Ober in the late rounds) Baseball draft is still seriously hard to predict. Walker Jenkins and Kaelen Culpepper sure like they were pretty good picks, so there's good reason to believe the Twins would pick wisely with a top pick.

thanks!

I hate everything about trade scenarios involving Byron Buxton, one of my all-time favorite Twins, and one of the most exciting and fun players to watch in Twins history. He wants to be here, and we've screwed it up with terrible ownership and a front office that has offended/turned off so many fans some people can't even accept they may have done some good things while here. Yes, his health hasn't stood up, but when he's even close to right he's one of the most electrifying players I've ever watched, and I've seen a lot of effing baseball. The fact that we're speculating about trading him is a goddamn travesty. I hate these rumors, and I hate all these trade partners. I hate all the coastal writers floating trades that will almost certainly give the Twins the short end of the stick. I hate the fact that Twins beat writers have to cover this story. And if any of them enjoy it, I hate them too. Hey Twins: wanna make it even easier for me to not come to a game or even watch on TV? Trade Byron Buxton. Baseball is a great game. But today? Baseball sucks.

the odds are against basically every prospect. It's always going to more likely that a prospect fails than succeeds, and it's like that for every team (yes including Tampa Bay and the Dodgers, who are frequently cited as being uniquely more clever than the Twins, and still have more prospect misses than hits) But players will break out and crush their level of the minors, and that's a) worth celebrating, and b) fun to speculate on. Get out of the bitter barn and come play in the hay! :P

I'm very interested to see what a healthy Charlee Soto looks like in 2026; I think he could take a major leap if he's able to stay on the field. I'm more than a little concerned that the Twins might have screwed up Rojas' development by pushing him too aggressively last season; to me he looked like a player that was not ready for AAA, but the team left him up there in a misguided attempt to justify an unpopular trade. I hope I'm wrong. There's quite a bit of talent in the Twins farm system. The challenge as of late has been in making the last step it seems.

I was a big Julien backer, but he hasn't done enough to merit a spot on the roster; beyond that he's a poor fit to back up Clemens or any of the likely DH candidates (LH bats all). While he's on the 26-man by default based on his lack of options, this is where sunk cost fallacy comes into play. It's frankly the biggest concern I have about Outman: rather than "lose the asset" they'll keep a player who isn't good enough to be on a MLB roster hanging around. I'm not even very enthusiastic about keep Larnach, and he's been far better than either Outman or Julien over the past 2 seasons at the plate. I don't hate the lineup that much outside of these problems, but it's predicated on better health or performance from several guys: Wallner, Lewis, Keaschall, and Lee, while having continued health/success from Buxton, Jeffers (who wasn't great last season), and Martin. And that can go wrong in a hurry. The rotation looks great, right up until the Cheap Pohlads force us to trade Lopez or Ryan. But right now? That's a pretty dang good rotation, especially if Ober bounces back. Bullpen still needs experience and Kline doesn't have it. I don't mind running with some of the younger guys and converting some starters, but they need to add a guy who has experience late in games. I question whether Preilipp will go bullpen from the jump, but I'm here for it.

Well, first off you appear to be misrepresenting what replacement level means in the context of WAR. That's for guys who put up a negative WAR which yeah...you can find cheaply and off the street. WAR doesn't presume that you can replace a starting quality player easily or cheaply, which is why they value 1 WAR at $8M or so. Have the Twins found a consistent replacement for Rosario in LF? No, but they've certainly replaced Rosarios production since he left...because Eddie stopped being good. Twins got solid production in the COVID season in 2020 (OPS+ of 116 with decent defense in the smaller sample). After that, it hasn't been good for Rosario and the Twins still look smart for not investing playing time or financial resources in him. Atlanta got overly excited by a hot run down the stretch and handed him a big contract, that immediately blew up in their faces. In a fairly similar amount of playing time (overall) from 2021 through 2025, Trevor Larnach was in fact better than Eddie Rosario, and much much cheaper. Because of injuries and lack of production, Larnach hasn't been able to seize the LF job on a permanent basis, but drop Rosario's production in there and things are even worse. Martin is an intriguing option for LF in 2026, because he finally started to look comfortable out there and his ability to get on base was strong enough to make up for not having any real pop in his bat, and his speed on the bases offset the mistakes. If he produces like he did in 2025 for an entire season, he's a solid starting LF that provides speed, defense, and a solid ability to avoid outs, while not adding anything for power. Roden has a higher upside, because he looks like he could potentially play all 3 outfield positions credibly or better, could have some decent pop in his bat, and might avoid outs effectively. But his hit tool hasn't shown up yet. (BTW, Roden has a better track record as a hitter in the minors than...Eddie Rosario) He should get chances in MLB this season. I'd rather give Martin the starting job out the gate because I think Larnach's upside is pretty limited and Martin adds more things. Roden should get chances in LF, RF, and CF to play and show he can hit. If we're adding in a prospect to compete for OF time (and I believe we should), I'd make it at the expense of Wallner in the OF, moving the moose to DH, but not having Larnach on the team at all. Regardless, I'm not really missing Eddie Rosario in LF. 2018 Eddie? Sure. But that guy ain't been around for a long time.

It'd be one thing if he was 28, but he's not. Where's the evidence that he plays even a competent 1B and that his knee would hold up to a MLB schedule? Can he actually catch up to MLB fastballs or is he just punishing lower velocity and mistakes? At best he'd be worth giving a minor-league contract to. Which he probably doesn't take, especially from the Twins (it's hard for someone who was an all-star with a club to accept a make-good deal in the minors; pride gets in the way). Maybe he's healthy and has his head right. But he's played less than 50 games in the US since 2022, so doesn't really look like an MLB player any longer.

You're not wrong. It's not hard at all to see a world where they rebuild a chunk of the bullpen, add a solid RH bat to play 1B/DH, dump some of the reclamation projects off the roster with promising rookies/prospects, and be able to think: hey, with a few breaks this team could be pretty good and should at least be interesting and fun to watch. (I'm less excited about bringing back Spencer Steer, who hasn't been a league-average hitter since 2023 and has been on a decline since his breakout in 2023, despite good health and plenty of PT) You can see a path forward that's fairly reasonable and wouldn't require breaking the bank. But it's even easier to see the Cheap Pohlads forcing more payroll cuts, sunk costs like Outman lingering on for months, and players like Wallner & Lewis not having the bounce back years they need in order to make it happen. I think the article pinpoints exactly where the biggest tells are for what the franchise intends. Never listen to what front office people SAY, watch what they DO. Same goes for managers, owners, etc. I don't care what Falvey says at the Winter Meetings (I'm not going to get mad about it, either). I'll understand what you really meant when I know where Pablo Lopez is starting Opening Day, or Kody Clemens is handed the everyday 1B job, or we sign or don't sign a veteran reliever with some experience at the end of games. (personally, I think we'll know something if Outman gets handed a roster spot on scholarship too, but YMMV)

LOL. I recall when people were peddling what a "great" deal StL got for Gray and how much the Twins were going to regret "letting" him go. StL is so ready to move him along that they're eating that much salary? Says more than a few things right there.

I don't know if I'm ready to give an up arrow to Amick, but unless you're really taking the AFL struggles as a sign of what's to come, he has to stay flat at least. The injuries were a bummer; he has to stay on the field. But he handled things quite well in Cedar Rapids with respectable power and patience throughout the season. There's no "horrible second half" for him as much as "didn't play enough". And I agree: the defense was better than advertised at 3B, enough that it's more than reasonable to keep playing him there while also giving him time at 1B. Amick had a pretty successful season, marred only by health. It'll be interesting to see where DeBarge and Amick start the season in 2026 and might tell some things about where the Twins see their stock...

So the prospects won't be good enough and the free agents are above our price point. What exactly would your plan be then? SS is not a strength right now for the Twins, so we're back to where we were before bringing Correa in. Twins have been patching it together at SS for decades.

I'm not nearly as high on DeBarge as some. Sure the steals are fun, but it's A-ball, where the catching is all over the place, and the pitchers are wildly inconsistent at holding runners on. The real issue is all pop vanished from his bat by June, and his hitting got worse and worse as the season went along. If we're supposed to be concerned about Amick because of how he finished the season and his struggles in the AFL (during an injury-riddled season), shouldn't we be at least as concerned about DeBarge who finished the season looking lost and overwhelmed at the plate? Lot of K's for someone with no power. The walks will decline rapidly as he goes up in levels if he can't show he can make contact and do damage, so even if the steals are an indicator or being a weapon on the bases, what good will it do if he can't get on there consistently? For me his stock didn't change much, with the decline at the plate throughout the season offsetting the speed/defense last season. Impressed with Hill and Culpepper. We'll see if anyone else emerges.

There's a variety of reasons some people are still upset, it's not just a linear action of people being bad they weren't playing the young guys and now being forced to play the supposed young guys. There's the people who hate Falvey, and won't be happy until he's fired; there's the crew that won't be happy until the Twins get rid of guys who strike out a lot and start bunting more; there's those who thought we were finally moving on from the Cheap Pohlads and had the rug pulled out from under us, etc. That said, a lot of people are asking to see the prospects and let them sink or swim, but there's no real evidence that the Twins are planning on that happening yet. There's definitely some inexperienced players who will be relied on, but it sure looks like a lot of the top prospects in the high minors won't be starting with the team. Outman & Larnach are looking like they're on the 26-man and they're neither young nor prospects of any kind at this point. (Martin isn't all that young any longer either, but at least he played well last season) Clemens isn't young, and isn't a prospect. Lewis isn't a young prospect any longer either. Even in the pitching we don't know who is getting a chance; are we actually going to see Raya & Preilipp in the bullpen or are we going to see a bunch of dumpster-diving bullpen candidates in Spring Training and even guys like Adams and Ohl still trying to land a job? So far the only young prospects that are somewhat locked in are Keaschall (who needs to stay healthy) and Lee (who isn't that young since he was a college player and has been up in MLB in 2024 & 2025). Julien will be 27 coming off back-to-back poor seasons. Larnach will be 29 and struggled. Outman will also be 29 and has declined in the field and is a horrible mess at the plate. Roden's the baby of the group and will be 26. Clemens will be 30. All of them are likely to need time in the OF or at DH and just their presence on the roster makes it harder for guys like Gonzalez, Rodriguez, or Jenkins to get time absent injury. None of them were good in 2025. It's not a real youth movement. And there's a bunch of sunk costs that the Twins can't move on from.

Not sure with Lowe; which guy would we get? The one who looked lost at the plate in DC or the guy who bounced back in Boston? Does he return towards career averages in 2026 or has the slide begin for him? Should we expect career splits or is he going to get murdered by LHP for the rest of his career? (this would matter less if Kody Clemens wasn't the other 1B) Just don't know. Think I'd rather sign the RH bat? The OF are both eff no. we don't need non-tender OF right now; frankly we have too many guys cluttering up the roster in the OF already (am I interested in more of the sunk cost of James "my name now represents me" Outman? No.) and I'm more interested in seeing what Gonzalez, Rodriguez, and Jenkins than I am with another retread. I'd rather see more of Roden than either of these clowns.

Jackson has always been solid defensively, which is why he keeps getting chances to stick as someone's backup. If he hits at all he'll be a nice player at a reasonable price. It comes down to whether or not you think the adjustments he made and results he put up last season are reflective of where he is as a hitter or just a small-ish sample size fluke? As noted in the article, there are underlying metrics to suggest that he may have found something. His MLB track record prior to 2025 as a hitter has been pretty poor, but he has hit in AAA. Considering how poor Vazquez was as a hitter the past 2 seasons and just how low the bar is for catchers as hitters in MLB, this could end up as an upgrade at a much more palatable price. Better than Pereda? We'll see.

Nice trolling putting Royce Lewis on this list. Gonzalez should be ahead of Fitz, Kreidler, or McCusker and if he's not then we're pretty damn stupid. Frankly, I'd rank him ahead of Outman, who I think is unsalvageable and a waste on the roster and spending a 26-man spot on him with better prospects with higher upside is foolish. Ranking Martin below Roden after last season is weird. Martin was good, showing an offensive skillset that while lacking in power was still effective and he showed real improvement in LF. Roden was dreadful at the plate, and while he may be a higher rated prospect at this point, Martin has substantially out-performed him in MLB. Frankly, Martin should be above Larnach, whose mediocrity on offense and lack of defense has him as a fringe roster player. Martin is looking like a solid contributor.

The injury issue is going to be with him until he shows that he can stay on the field. But the talent is real. Personally, I would prefer to give him a shot to win a job out of spring training (along with Roden, Gonzalez, Jenkins, and Fedko) than keep Larnach on the roster. Emma can play a credible CF, and an OF alignment of Martin in LF, Buxton in CF, and Rodriguez in RF allows Wallner to spend more time at DH with someone like Roden (who has little to prove at AAA) as the 4th OF and now you have an OF that defends well with good speed and the potential to hit, while finding out more about what we really have in some of these players. We'd still be a little too LH at times, but I'd rather be looking this way than hoping against hope that Larnach gets better at 29. Play the kids. We've got 5 outfield prospects with AAA or better experience (not including Outman, who I think is a lost cause) and while Jenkins might be the only "sure thing" while still needing a little more time to develop, what are we really waiting for? Even if Rodriguez gets nicked up and struggles to stay on the field, we still have other guys ready to step in. It's not 2022, when we ran out of OF and didn't have any options to call up in the minors. Either these guys are legit prospects or they aren't.

There's no real 40-man roster reason to "need" to non-tender Larnach; there's several candidates that could be DFA'd without any real consequence (McCusker is an obvious choice that even plays OF, but there are several others). To me, if Larnach is non-tendered it's about money and the Cheap Pohlads setting the payroll at a very low level for 2026. I hope he's traded rather than non-tendered, but I suspect there's little market for him. He's a league-average platoon bat with no real defensive value, some injury history, who is getting more expensive, turning 29 before the season starts, and has limited upside. Not sure who is clamoring to pay that guy $4-5M; I expect he either signs a 1-year deal as a free agent in the $2-3M range or goes to Japan/Korea.

I don't think re-examination of Hunter's case for the Hall gets him any closer to induction. It's a really long road to go from where he sits to the 75% needed for induction, and he'd need a really substantial jump right now to build enough momentum to get anywhere close. Beyond that, as much as I loved Torii as a player for the Twins, he's the classic example of the Hall of Very Good. He was never really bad (probably just played too much the last two seasons) once he got established in MLB, but he also wasn't consistently great. he got 4 all-star nods which was quite frankly...very fair. It's hard to say he deserved more of them just maybe that he got the nods in some years he maybe shouldn't have and was passed over in some years where he was deserving. It even out. He never had the big MVP season; the one time he finished in the top 10 for AL MVP he easily had the worst season of anyone in the top 10 voting (it probably should have gone to A-Rod that year but Texas stunk). It's hard to say he was overlooked in MVP voting. He's remembered for his defense, but his defense had slipped long before he stopped getting Gold Gloves. A very good player, who was very good for a really long time. But not better than Lofton or Edmonds (who were contemporaries), or Andruw Jones (another contemporary) who had a much higher peak. You have to rate Hunter's late career consistency pretty high (and it is impressive how he stayed a very good player well into his 30's) to push him up. Loved watching him play (although the yahoo hero-ball play he tried and failed to make against the A's in the Dome still drives me crazy all these years later), and he's a Twins Hall of Famer for sure. But not MLB Hall of Famer.

Aggie started for the Twins when he first came over (he'd only just moved to the Mets bullpen full-time in '89). Reardon was the one who was an established closer when he came over to the Twins.

I think there's little chance we see Rojas in the bullpen or the rotation any time soon. Yes, his stuff is impressive, but he was pushed too quickly last season and got throttled in AAA. He needs real development work and while he can probably get past last seasons crapitude, this is not a pitcher who is anywhere near ready. He's never made 20 professional starts. He's never thrown 100 innings. he only had 4 starts in AA last season. He only made 9 starts in AAA and struggled in most of them, and even in his best outings wasn't efficient at all. He should have been in Wichita last season, and there's a fair argument to make that he should start 2026 there regardless. Notably, he didn't even pitch the first 2 months of the season last year. Loads of talent, nowhere near ready.