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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Twins offense is at it's best this season when they're grinding out walks. When they're putting together 4-5 baserunners via the free pass it's been doing good things for them. When they're up there hacking it's been much less reliable. Lee & Martin are both struggling right now, despite Brooks getting the triple. Nice job from Zebby after giving up the dinger; he settled down and got the job done. Nice job by Adams & Banda as well. Tough loss. Finding offense is going to be more challenging without Jeffers, who has been consistently dangerous all season. Need to see more from Keaschall, Martin, Lee, and Larnach.
  2. jmlease1
    Okert is just a reminder how so many veteran relievers are fungible assets that you shouldn't invest real money in. He's been solid enough for Houston, just like he was in Miami. He "stunk" with the Twins because in a small sample in 2024 he simply couldn't get RH batters out. Normalize his splits a little more and suddenly he's a perfectly acceptable LHP in the bullpen who is annihilating LH hitters and getting thumped by RH hitters, but not destroyed by them. There's a reason he's playing on a $2M contract. He'd very likely be doing the exact same things if he was still with the Twins, but fans would have lost their minds if they'd brought him back after 2024.
  3. jmlease1
    It hasn't worked out well so far, but we didn't exactly lose much: Polanco was expensive and there was little market for him. Before Topa imploded this season the deal wasn't that far off even, making it a minor move. Polanco was bad enough that he had almost no offers and took a significant pay cut in his free agency year. (congrats to the Mets for massively overpaying him; he's been bad and now is hurt) You seem to have some expectation that Polanco had a lot more value than he did; this wasn't Jorge from 2021, who played at an all-star level, this was a guy getting more expensive, while playing less.
  4. jmlease1
    I don't think anyone really expected a quick return to form for Wallner, so probably not much of an indicator...yet. We'll see: maybe he gets it together or maybe he simply can't catch up to fastballs any longer. at 28. But at least the Twins have properly sent him down to AAA to figure it our, which is the same for Royce. They both got extended looks this season, both had an excuse that maybe bought them some additional time (Wallner was exposed to too many LHP, Royce had an injury that put him on the shelf for a bit) but both have been not just bad at the plate but looked entirely lost. I appreciate the fact that the Twins didn't wait until June (or later) to make some of these calls. I like to think that if Rodriguez was healthy they would have pulled the pin on Outman as well by now, especially with Wallner's performance. be interesting to see what Arcia brings: he should be at least solid defensively at 3B and it seems impossible for him to hit less. Mostly a platoon with Gray? Maybe give Keaschall some breaks at 2B? Lineup is missing some thump with Jeffers out, so really need Buxton back.
  5. jmlease1
    That's just made up math. It's -1.4 bWAR, because Topa has really sucked this season. Going into the year it was -0.8 bWAR with GG still to play out. You simply can't honestly count Polanco's second season with Seattle, where he signed as a free agent, against the trade. Hells bells, why not count Polanco's rotten season (and terrible contract) to date with the Mets?!?
  6. jmlease1
    I think he might be good enough to deserve it, but I suspect he'll never hit a list. Too many prospect evaluators value tools and projectability over production and almost punish prospects for being too close to a the MLB call-up. They're likely to ding Mendez for not showing enough power production. I think that's a mistake, but I don't need the Twins prospects to all get the blessing of the national prospect evaluators. If Dasan Hill were eligible for the purposes of this exercise, he'd be the easy choice I think. There's also a fair case that the Twins next first round draft pick could/should be a top 100 guy on Day 1.
  7. jmlease1
    well, I hate the idea of losing Ryan generally, but who is making offers right now? A lot of teams don't even know if they're contenders or not, so we're not getting good offers right now we're getting "sure, I'll take him for 2 A-ball lottery ticket pitchers coming off TJ!" Good luck trying to sell off in May; there's maybe 1 buyer.
  8. jmlease1
    Tough one. Hate to see Lewis getting sent down, but there was little choice left. Sending him out to flail away wasn't doing him any good and it certainly wasn't good for the team for multiple reasons. Dreadful news about Jeffers, who was having a great season. What a bummer. Guess we'll what what Alex Jackson can do for us. Glad they DFA'd Topa. I wasn't sure they would; they have historically given veterans a lot of rope, but yeesh Topa has looked bad lately. Adams isn't exactly exciting but he should be more competent and at least has some upside potential. Arcia should add some consistency to the infield, and I wonder if we're going to see Kreidler playing more outfield? Would still really like Rodriguez to get healthy and get up here. To me, the clock is ticking on Outman now. He's going to get some additional opportunities and if he can't do anything with them then he should get the DFA as soon as Rodriguez is ready...and if not him then give Mendez a shot if he stays on a roll. No more scholarships.
  9. jmlease1
    A nice list. The question with Mendez isn't whether or not he'll hit, but whether or not he'll show some power production, since he's unlikely to be much of an asset defensively. He did well last season at AA and has continued to show enough this year to make me think that he can be an impactful hitter. Hope he keeps rolling. Again, he doesn't need to be a 20+ homer guy (be nice if he was), just someone who can punish the ball if a pitcher leaves one hanging or tries to groove a fastball to get a cheap strike. Hill has tremendous upside. Am still concerned about his walks, but that's an A-ball pitcher for you. I won't be shocked if he spends most or all of the season in Cedar Rapids, and that's fine IMHO. As he starts to refine thinks more promotion will be a fairly natural process and he could make jumps quickly. Moring is interesting. I think he could move up to Cedar Rapids sooner rather than later as a college pitcher. He's showing he can get after professional hitters, so I won't be surprised if he starts getting pushed a little. Nifty start.
  10. jmlease1
    Rojas really did look good. Hope this is a sign rather than a fluke, but he's still pretty wild. But my goodness the stuff is excellent when he's cooking. Really thought the bullpen was going to kick this game away for a bit; Topa was quite bad and really doesn't have an excuse of the weather delay. Looking at his last 5 games there's 3 really bad ones and 2 good ones and that's not a ratio we can live with. Bummer that the rain came in after just 1 inning from SWR. Really wanted to see how he'd do in a 2-3 inning stint. Great to see Bell get off the shnide; he's actually hit some balls hard lately but come up with nothing, so maybe the 2 dingers gets him rolling again. With Jeffers going down (sigh) we need him slugging.
  11. jmlease1
    Did you really want Ober going back out for one more? He was dancing through the raindrops, not dominating. Happy he limited the damage, but who cares what his pitch count was? The goal is to win the game, not have the starter throw 100 pitches. Ober was getting hit pretty hard, be happy he fought through 5.
  12. jmlease1
    Morris is starting to look like he could be a high-octane late inning reliever. Love to see it. Need to find another one like him this season but it's a start. Glad the Twins got at least one out of this series; frankly would have felt a little unfair if they'd gotten swept. And certainly good to see the offense be less tepid. Clemens is one one of his patented hot streaks, so let's ride it for as long as it lasts. Keaschall still needs to keep it going, but at least he's starting to trend in the right direction. Royce on the other hand just continues to struggle. The early K to let Gasser off the hook seemed inevitable; it was good to see him fighting off pitches, but did anyone feel like he was going to come through there? It's getting sad. Think he goes down by June. Not a great Ober start, but he did enough. He gave them a chance, which is just fine.
  13. jmlease1
    well, you're quoting AI... Good luck finding nuance or accuracy there. I'm not going to say RBIs themselves are useless or meaningless, but as a statistic, it's not especially useful or descriptive in informing someone about how good a hitter a particular player is.
  14. jmlease1
    Prielipp is doing a fine job in the rotation. Hard luck outing with the offense not giving him any help, but it's starting to look like we may have something here. If we can get Taj back soon and send SWR to the 'pen then the rotation will be in pretty good hands. Sad to see Lewis struggling so much. Got a hit, but the error was a tough one. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets a few more weeks to try and sort himself, but he's making it too easy to send him down to AAA right now. So used to Martin doing well at the plate this season that it seems strange to see him have an ofer. Tough luck for him on that broken bat flare to RF; almost got it down for a hit and Outman was caught a little trying to figure out what to do. I think he could have scored on the tag up (tough to make a good, accurate throw off a sliding catch even with it being shallow) but I understand the hesitation with it being so shallow. Bummer to waste a triple like that. Missed having Buxton in the lineup. Not much room for error right now. Henderson did a nice job with that change, though.
  15. jmlease1
    something going on with Houston? hasn't played as much recently and is in a mini slump. Maybe he picked up a knock? Good to see debarge with another nice day, hopefully he's working his way out of whatever was going on and will keep hitting. same for GG, who has not had a good start to his AAA campaign in 2026; he needs to get on a roll for a while, because he's really struggled this season. Hope some more guys get healthy. Always depressing to see 20% of the top 20 prospect list on the IL...
  16. jmlease1
    Offense never really got going; 2 runs simply isn't enough against a team like MKE. Ryan did a nice job after starting out a bit flat, and while Morris' outing was a bit disappointing you do wonder if things would have gone differently without that obstruction call. MKE fans outnumbered Twins fans in the stand by what, 6 to 1? More? Oof.
  17. jmlease1
    Amick is doing great right now, hope it continues. He needs to hit to advance, but I like how he's responded to adversity. DeBarge really needed a day like this. Hope he strings together a few more. I don't think he needs to be swinging out of his shoes and trying for homers, but he's got to hit, and it needs to be a little more than the occasional single too. 14 out of the top 20 didn't play for various reasons. That's less fun. Hope the injured guys get back to health soon. Would love to get an update on Soto for example. It's been 13 months since he pitched in a game, and if he's going to be out for much longer he really needs to be moved down as a prospect. Yes, he's still young, but if you can't play...what kind of prospect are you? I love his arm, but it's been a long absent stretch. Speaking of which: Matt Canterino is eligible to come off the 60-day IL for Saint Paul next week; any chance he might be ready and get to pitch again? I'm rooting for this dude. He's not a prospect any longer, and you can project or plan on anything for him...but he's still trying to make it happen and if he can ever get healthy he's got the tools to make it to MLB. I hope he does. (and I will never not blame Rice for wrecking his arm)
  18. jmlease1
    honestly I think that's going to depend on him. I expect they'll be very comfortable sending him out for 90 plus pitches...if they're spread over 6 innings. It's when he has those high-stress innings where he needs 25+ pitches to get through it that they'll be looking at the faster hook. If he needs 27 pitches to get through the 4th and is sitting at 70+ pitches, I wouldn't be surprised to see the bullpen take over. If he's at 75 after 5 and was efficient in his last inning, I won't be surprised to see him get the 6th. They need to push him some in order to see what he can handle, but also need to protect his arm and avoid another big injury. It's a delicate line to walk. But so far he's doing well and has been able to get through 5 in 3 out of his 4 starts, throw 80+ pitches in all of them, and given the team a chance to win. The FIP is probably a better indicator of where he is over the actual ERA right now, so it'll be interesting to see which one has the most movement. If we can get Bradley (who it sounds like is close) and Abel back the starting pitching depth starts looking solid again with Zebby also in the mix. Have to feel good about where Prielipp is right now, especially after so much injury trouble to start his career. Bullpen is not inevitable.
  19. jmlease1
    Here's the good thing: despite Tom Verducci pushing the concept, there really isn't any real research that shows that there's causation between and increase in innings pitched year over year and injury. They need to monitor his workload and make sure that his body isn't having bad reactions and they should be careful about his pitch counts and pushing him after high stress innings....but they don't have to go "welp, he's never pitched over 85 innings, so we only get him for 100 innings this season before we have to shut him down". He's done well so far. He's not dominating, but he's not getting blown up either. You can see the upside, and he hunts Ks effectively. There's a few too many baserunners and I'm a little nervous about the 3 homers in the last two starts, but there's a lot to like.
  20. jmlease1
    Great start by Zebby! Exactly what the team needed after a poor start the night before. Also very happy to see the team not sleepwalk through it on getaway day. I'm not sold on Outman, even if he had a good game. I'd still be looking to bring up Rodriguez if he gets healthy soon. But I'll take anything we get. Austin Martin is having a fine start to his season. I think I'd rather see him in LF than RF, but that's a small thing
  21. jmlease1
    Tied for 2nd behind Zebulon Matthews, right?
  22. jmlease1
    Austin Martin just keeps getting on base, doesn't he? I've been a fan for a while, glad to see him having a good start to the season.
  23. jmlease1
    Good spot for Rojas to work. Let him try to finish it, plenty of run support.
  24. jmlease1
    Guessing Zebby gets a chance to do the 7th, but might get pulled if he looks like he's flagging, which seems fine. Hopefully he cruises through it and hands off the game with a 6 run lead. He's done well today and it's be great to have 1 more inning.
  25. jmlease1
    I think part of what you're seeing is what can be accomplished as long as you have at least one elite pitch. Ober's changeup is pretty damn great. The sweeper & slider are plenty effective with good movement, so it's not like Ober's arsenal is limited to chucking the change and hoping. The fastball velocity may be at the bottom of the league, but his extension is at the top, which reduces the amount of time hitters have to figure out the pitch as well, not just having the fastball play up a bit. Throw strikes, change speeds, hit your spots...it can work. I think looking at Ober's 2025 is interesting as well: the first start was a disaster, and that was a bad call on Rocco's part: he should never have pitched that day. After that, he was a quality starter the next 2 months. June was dreadful. July was the IL. August and Sept were inconsistent, but there were quite a few good starts in there. Velocity is useful. It's valuable. It's also probably the easiest? For most pitchers, what's going to be the easiest pitch for them to command? It's the fastball. But if Ober is able to consistently command that changeup, hit his spots with the breaking stuff, and mix in the fastball in ways that guys can sit on it and try and tee off on it...maybe he's got a new formula that will hold up. It's interesting. I love a good changeup. Ober's is one of the best we've had since...Johan?
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