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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I have no idea where to rank Royce Lewis any longer. The talent is legit, the injury history is troubling, the production is...erratic? He looked a mess at the plate last season, and hopefully he gets a full re-set this winter. I did like how he started running on the bases again, and that he didn't drag his struggles at the plate into the field; he's a legit 3B. I'm nervous about Festa, and simply don't trust the Twins staff on injury recovery or projections at this point. I love his talent, and would be fine with moving the Slim Reaper to the bullpen, especially if guys like Bradley and SWR seize the back end of the rotation.
  2. jmlease1
    That's a pretty tough bar to clear, though. Because if he can't effing hit at all (and keep in mind even guys like Andrelton Simmons (who was the best defensive SS in MLB at one point) hit in the minors) people will not be ok with anything less than the best, and even then I expect to hear complaints. Again, the Simmons example is instructive: when he was with the Twins he was still playing quality defense at SS, but the .558 OPS made it painful, and after 35 games with the Cubs in 2022 he was out of the league at 32, because he simply couldn't hit. Marek Houston will need to hit at least some or his glove won't matter enough.
  3. jmlease1
    I hope a fresh start gets him back on track. He clearly needed a change of scenery and he wasn't going to get a MLB deal with anyone this season after his disastrous, horrific 2025. He might never get back to being the kind of player he was becoming, which would be a shame. It was a bummer seeing everything good about his game evaporate and for him to struggle so mightily. There's little doubt in my mind that he was seriously impacted by the beaning, and instances like this are something that baseball (and the player's association in particular) will have to wrestle with with player safety in coming years. With pitchers throwing harder than ever, all it takes is one wayward throw for a player's career to be altered permanently or even ended, regardless of intent. Good luck to Miranda.
  4. jmlease1
    Dang quad bypass? That's serious stuff, especially at 70. Hope he recovers well and gets more time with his family and friends. Heck of a relief pitcher for the Twins. He's had some rough times and hopefully this improves his quality of life and doesn't send him spiraling again,
  5. jmlease1
    Who is giving love for Kreidler? Much like Outman, he's a guy on the roster that it feels like we're stuck with. (It's my biggest issue with Falvey's roster management; they'll grab guys like this and instead of giving them a brief audition and moving on if they suck out, they keep chasing value rather than "lose the asset for nothing") They need to have a backup SS on the roster. Right now it's Kreidler by default. In this particular case, I'm not sure it makes that much difference if it's Kriedler v Fitzgerald, I guess? I'm more concerned about the OF and the lack of opportunity for any of the prospects if Outman (who looks like a quad-A guy) and Larnach (who seems to have little upside) stick. As noted elsewhere, there's not even enough PT in AAA for guys right now. Feels like the scars of a few years ago when we literally ran out of competent OF (and it probably cost the team a playoff spot) have lingered too long, and the wrong lessons were learned. I have no idea what to do with Julien at this point. I was a big backer of his, but he's got a lot more failure on his resume now. Much like Outman, why should we believe he can be fixed in 2026? I don't know that he's really blocking anyone, but 26-man spots have value and unless he figures it out fast, he's not adding any. I'm bummed about that, but feels like it's time to move on. Looking at the projected lineup, it's clear that it's dependent on several players improving or returning to form to be dangerous. Now, that's possible; Wallner & Lewis in particular should be better in 2026 than 2025 and both can be real threats. But fans should rightfully be skeptical at this point.
  6. jmlease1
    Yeah, there's no question that Rooker made improvement and adjustments after he left; it wasn't just a case of getting more opportunities. It's important to remember that Rooker flunked out in SD and KC too before figuring it out. But good for him. It would be great if someone like Rosario keeps fine-tuning his game and rises up as a better hitter and player then almost everyone is projecting, but it's not something you can count on. So far, Twins have done ok with him, giving him time in the AFL, correctly assessing his value so they haven't needed to add him to the 40-man...and who knows? Maybe he takes another leap in AAA. But GG is the most likely option; he doesn't turn 22 for another week, but hit very well in a decent sized opportunity in AAA while jumping all the way up from A-ball in one season, and earning it at every stop. There's a lot to like with his hit tool. I don't have any problems with giving GG more time in AAA, but I hope that the Twins will make it more of an open competition for the last spots in the OF, rather than just hand jobs to Outman and Larnach.
  7. jmlease1
    He's younger and has less of a track record of failure in MLB? Seems to be better defensively at this point? Roden might turn out to be a quad-A player, but he's barely played in MLB and it's not at all unusual for a rookie to suck in their first taste of MLB competition. He might not make it, but he also has options remaining, so it's not a situation where the team has to decide whether to essentially cut him if he's not performing from the jump, which is part of the problem with Outman: if he's on the roster in March we might be stuck with him longer as the old sunk cost fallacy comes into play again. GG is a better fit for the roster in some ways, but again with guys like Larnach on the roster the Twins need a legit backup CF. Right now we've got Wallner, Larnach, Outman, Martin, and Buxton as the OF and dropping Outman for GG means that Martin is the backup CF, which is...less optimal.
  8. jmlease1
    Because we've been terribly vulnerable to LHP in recent years? Because RH hitters typically have less egregious splits than LH hitters? Because a bunch of our top hitting prospects hit LH? It's reasonable to be concerned. I like Martin, but he won't hit for any real power and we still don't know if last season is reflective of his ability or he'll fumble it in 2026. Jeffers might not be here in a year and while he hits well for a catcher, when he slides to DH he's not lighting the world on fire lately. Keaschall has never played a full season. Buxton is the only real proven RH hitter we have, and people are trying to sell him off too.
  9. jmlease1
    I'd say GG is the most likely RH bat to emerge as a real MLB option from this group, but you never know how things will evolve. GG had an excellent 2025, and his improved approach was impressive. I'm not terribly concerned about his less than stellar 2024, but that was almost certainly injury related. He was healthy in 2025 and kicked butt. Rosario is a fascinating case. He's got loud power and when he gets on a run he's an impressive hitter who did well in 2025. He took a good run in the AFL in 2024 and kept it up all through 2025 to get himself back on track. But he clearly has weaknesses: he's not much of a defender, despite good athleticism, and the K-rates can get scary. But he's also a player who clearly works on his game and has been able to add things from year to year. He went from being a guy who never ran to swiping 32 bags last season. Sure, it's the minors and between catchers still learning the position and pitchers not being good at holding guys on it's easy to run wild, but going from single digit steals to 30+ still says something. (I'm not exactly sure what, but it shouldn't be ignored) Maybe he's a guy who can add to his game in increments? What if he really improves his defense in 2026? I dunno if he'll make it and not getting selected in the Rule 5 suggests the league ain't sure about him either, but he's still something and should be in AAA this year. (and with Rosario needing to be in AAA is another reason to not keep effin' Outman on the roster: if Fedko, Jenkins, Rodriguez, Roden, Gonzalez, and Rosario are all in AAA that's too many OF to give people reasonable amounts of PT)
  10. jmlease1
    It's a good list, and I'm happy to see Harper on it. He does seem to be the forgotten guy from the '91 team, but he was a really solid catcher for the Twins. You'd kill to have a guy who could hit like that now catching for you. Twins have had some very very good FA signings, but their volume is also pretty low when it comes to impact moves.
  11. jmlease1
    Pass. He might have a nice bounce-back season at the plate, but there's little reason he's going to improve defensively, and there's plenty of risk that he's going to be more like Ed Julien or James Outman: a guy that had one season, before the league caught up to him. I'm unenthusiastic about Clemens, but at least he adds something defensively while having real positional flexibility. Clemens can fill in at 3B if needed (and Brooks Lee can slide down there as well), and the reality is with only 13 position player's you won't have backups on the MLB roster for every position. Twins don't need to have a dedicated backup to Royce Lewis, and now have 3 guys who can play 1B (Bell, Clemens, and Keaschall) and everyone can DH, so giving up a bunch of prospect capital for Vientos in hoping that he bounces back and finds a position doesn't do much for me. Are the Mets selling him cheap? No? Forget it.
  12. jmlease1
    Who knows on Royce? He's shown all-star upside and meh reserve quality. Which is part of the problem with "replacing" him when he's still relatively affordable. Larnach could be a bit more than that (he was above that in 2024) but I tend to agree: the ceiling is limited. Lee is another one where it's probably too early; he really doesn't have that much track record (he's well under 1000 PA's and has only had 1 full season in MLB). He's shown improvement as a hitter year over year, but needs substantial improvement both offensively and defensively to be part of any core. Martin is slightly older, but has even less track record. He was a mess defensively and didn't hit well in his first, limited MLB exposure, but improved markedly in limited time in 2025. He's got fewer PA's than Lee. You could easily give Martin's playing time to a RH bat...but would it be the best idea? Twins need to give playing time to the prospects in the OF and put money into the bullpen so that it has a baseline of competence while they cycle guys through looking for the next Jax, Duran, etc. Upgrading at SS would be lovely, but a) is someone like IKF (who can defend but can't hit) going to be that impactful for the money, and b) how close is Culpepper really? Because the twins simply can't pay a guy like IKF $7M to be the defensive replacement/utility guy.
  13. jmlease1
    I mean, you can make the argument that any position that doesn't have an incumbent all-star is worthy of an upgrade. But that's simply unrealistic, even for the unlimited payroll teams. Jeffers certainly has proven worthy of a roster spot; a catcher who can hit even a little is valuable and Jeffers has shown he can be more than that. Grouping Wallner, Larnach, Lee, Lewis, Martin, and Julien all together is complicated, because while the Twins could use an upgrade out of all of them, technically, the reasons are different and the degree is different. Wallner has multiple seasons of being not just an ok hitter but a really good one, and we don't know if 2025 was an anomaly or a trend. Larnach has an ok floor but never shown much ceiling. Lee is still a young player. Lewis has battled injuries constantly, including last season. Martin looks to be rising, but is relatively unproven. Julien has fallen apart as a hitter and doesn't seem to fit with the rest other than disappointing last season too. The bullpen is where the Twins need the greatest immediate investment.
  14. jmlease1
    The answer should be "yes", but since the biggest issue is still ownership...
  15. jmlease1
    If he's the hitter from the second half of 2025, then he'll be a very useful addition to the Twins lineup. There's reason to think he can repeat that, but there's also risk. But this is the kind of risk I'm ok with them taking? He's not blocking anyone, he makes us less reliant on Clemens, and if he gets back to career averages from the right side then he'll help us not get killed by LHP. I feel like he's likely to raise the floor for the Twins while still having some potential to raise the ceiling. Now, add in a couple of veteran relievers and maybe upgrade the backup SS (I'm unenthusiastic about Kreidler for sure) while sending Outman off the roster and the outlook improves even on a Pohlad budget...
  16. jmlease1
    Eh, we'll see. Part of the loss of trust that Tom has recognized is that people are going to be rightfully skeptical that changing which Pohlad is in charge will make a meaningful difference. There's also the issue that people want to see something big and splashy as proof that things are different...but usually when there's an ownership change, teams that make those kinds of big splashy "new owner" moves frequently regret them. Would I love for the Twins to pump the payroll, go get a significant FA, etc? Sure would...but not if it means ratcheting things back again in 2 years. I'll take incremental action and better/smarter communication for now. Can't have more statements like at the deadline that look like they were written by AI and were utterly disconnected from reality. Can't have ownership isolated from the fanbase: sorry, billionaires, but you might have to mingle with the masses. Show us what you intend to do to increase interest in the club, grow the fanbase, increase revenue, and put butts in seats. Get 20,000 people IN Target Field, not just sell 20,000 tickets. Show us you're not just biding time for a new CBA or a franchise sale in 2-3 years.
  17. jmlease1
    I don't think people here are undervaluing Arraez, though. Especially because we're being pretty clear it's not because he hits singles that we're less enthusiastic about him, it's because he's been going in a direction where that's all he's doing. He's not taking walks like he used to, he doesn't hit for power, he doesn't add value on the bases (and he also hits into a lot of DPs)...that's the issue. I think it's fair that batting average has become undervalued to some extent in this era, but people get hung up on the aesthetics of strikeouts as much as the impact of strikeouts, when at the end of the day there's little difference between a K with no one on base and a lazy fly to left...but some people get much much angrier about the K.
  18. jmlease1
    yeah, I think that's certainly an issue. Joe was put out as the forward face of the family and certainly has attempting to influence the baseball decisions, and had increased authority and responsibility on the business side...but at the end of the day, Jim was still the real final decision-maker for the family, and the fact that Tom is now getting that official role with MLB that Joe did not says some things. I don't think Joe had the requisite experience to really drive the train, he definitely didn't have the gift for being the public face (which was definitely what the family seemed to want from him), but we'll never really know if Joe was the one that sold the idea of the payroll increase and then pulled it back or if it was Falvey who sold Jim on the payroll increase with Joe cheerleading and then Jim & the family (which was probably driven by Bob but also might have included Tom) pulled it back because of how the losses were piling up. Joe wanted to be in charge, wanted to be "the owner", but never really had the power. Tom will still have to answer to the family/board, but has much more power as a decider than Joe did. I'm not sure I care that much. Show me some competence in the business ops, that you actually know how to raise the profile and revenue of the team without just cranking ticket prices. develop some plans to get fans in the stands. (and no, "just win" isn't enough: good teams don't always fill their stadiums, and bad teams can still draw. The effing Rockies stink and still sell tickets; they've been at 30K per season for the last 4 seasons. Tampa has frequently been good and in the mix, including a WS run and hasn't broken 20K attendance since 2011)
  19. jmlease1
    Good luck to McCusker. Hope it goes well for him, and he makes enough money to set up his family for life. Hope he embraces life in Japan and he enjoys living and playing there. Seems like a good opportunity and better than trying to grab a AAA contract in the US.
  20. jmlease1
    It's the smart play for him. He's not going to get an MLB deal off of winter league showings.
  21. jmlease1
    There's several things that are of interest, both in Joe Pohlad being shown the door (which will 100% be a source of conflict in the family and I'm sure that will linger) and Jim finally stepping aside as the official controller. The latter is very interesting to me, since they didn't take this step when they put Joe out front and center. Will it make any difference? We won't know until we start seeing some actions...and sadly some of those probably won't happen as quickly as we'd like. Falvey probably isn't going to get canned in December, but I'd be shocked if his seat hasn't gotten quite a bit hotter. We'll see if Tom (along with the minority partners) actually changes anything. Frankly, they need a massive overhaul in their business practices, because they've utterly mismanaged things over at least the past 15 years. And we're not likely to see how that changes immediately unless they announce a lot of staff firings (and hires). But right now the Twins are arguably 5th in popularity among pro franchises in MN and have been declining. That has to get addressed as much as the on-field product.
  22. jmlease1
    well, this is part of the fundamental problem with Pohlad ownership: it seems exceptionally likely that the family took profit distributions out of the club at various points, but never did a capital injection, except for possibly their share of stadium construction (but we don't actually know; that could have been deficit financed as well). We do know that over the past 5 years at least, any operating losses were funded by loans without any capital call from the Pohlads. Owners that care about winning and the sport they are a steward of through their team, will reinvest profits. They'll make capital calls for development, rather than borrow. Hard to see that being the way the Pohlads have run this team. But we'll never actually know because there's zero chance they'll open the books to anyone that's not an investor. The hope is that the new partners saw everything on the books and still saw the team as a good investment...
  23. jmlease1
    Leipold hasn't been as successful; as Wild fans would like, but at least it's clear that he's a) trying, and b) loves hockey. Part of the utter dissatisfaction with the Pohlad Family ownership is they frequently don't seem to be trying to do anything significant with the Twins, and outside of Nephew Joe (who boy howdy was the King of Not Ready For Prime Time) and the long gone Eloise they've never seemed to actually care about baseball all that much. The fact that they've been out selling the idea that they managed to heap hundreds of millions of debt on the team in only 5 years tells a lot about how they actually run the franchise. I don't expect much from the new minority owners; minority owners don't get much say. But if it clears the debt and makes the franchise more saleable after the sadly seemingly inevitable lockout in 2027...
  24. jmlease1
    Well, we'll see if it lands there? If he hits like he did in the second half of 2025 we won't be. That's the risk we're taking here. If you're saying we can't take risks paying players looking for improvement or bounce back seasons...what exactly are our options with this ownership? I'd rather take a swing at Bell (who people find attractive in the trade market if the Twins season is toast at the deadline) than some others. I'd have been willing to try and acquire someone from the O's, but who knows what they were demanding in a trade package? Mayo might turn out to be A Guy, but if the price is Pablo Lopez? Hell no.
  25. jmlease1
    Yeah, he does strongly believe in taking his best clients to free agency, and it's certainly worked for him. I'd be interested in doing a long-term deal with Keaschall, who didn't get a huge bonus and might be interested in some security and certainty, while still being young enough to hit free agency at a good age. My confidence level in him is high, even with the injuries and questions about his long-term defensive position. But it probably won't happen.
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