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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Congrats to Fragoza! He did a heck of a job nuking the FSL and it's always good to see a guy really hit in Ft. Myers. Wonder what his eventual position will be? He's played 3B, 1B, RF, LF, even some CF...be great if 3B is a legit position for him too?
  2. jmlease1
    Larnach's problem for the Twins is that if he's not really mashing RHP, his value is...low. If he was better defensively, if he could hold up better against LHP, if he added more on the bases then it's easy to offer him arbitration again and find a spot for him. The more expensive you are, the more things you have to offer, or produce at higher levels consistently at the things you do best. Larnach is having a career year at the plate, and he is hitting RHP well, and well enough to be the strong-side of a platoon. But he's helpless against LHP, slow, mediocre to poor defensively, etc. (props to him for not hitting into a million DP's this season so far though). Considering the younger, cheaper, higher upside options the twins will have in 2027, it'll be tough to run him back. Ober's problems are entirely due to a loss in velocity that just doesn't seem to be coming back. He's found a way to survive but chucking junk, and the sweeper and changeup are good enough for him to get away with it, but while his likely price isn't terrible at all even for a back end of the rotation starter, without a fastball that he can throw for strikes without getting tee'd off on consistently...he's in a tough spot. Because the lack of velocity on that fastball hurts his change. Guys can sit changeup and still catch up to the fastball. They can sit fastball and still react to the change. But when he's going, and guys are chasing that sweeper and missing the change he can mow through lineups. Just not consistently any longer, it seems.
  3. jmlease1
    bigoted jackwagon sh!tstirrer says what?
  4. jmlease1
    Nice to see Bohorquez with another good outing; that's 3 straight for him. Maybe he's getting into a groove? The stuff is excellent, but whether or not he can find the plate consistently is the big issue. If he finishes strong people will be talking about him more next season and I suspect we'll see him in AA. Nice to see Houston with a couple good ones in a row as well; he's had a rough August at the plate and it was looking like he might have hit the wall (not unreasonable, really, in his first full professional season). If he's already pulling out of it that's a great sign for him. I think regardless he's had a very good season, but it would be excellent for him to finish strong. I would push Vallimont back up to AAA as well. He's still a long shot, but what's the point in having him face AA guys? He's settled back into the system, run him up to AAA and keep working him. You never know with these guys. He's got the stuff, and the fact that he's battled back after going to Indy ball says he's resilient and willing to work. Might not get there, but send him to AAA and see what he's got. Fun story. I expect little, but I'm rooting for him.
  5. jmlease1
    I'm not that surprised that Houston has hit the wall in his first full professional season. It's a little more surprising from Winokur, who has been through this grind already. But it's been a pretty rough August for Houston. Hopefully they can find a few days off for him and he can get his second (or third) wind. Not panicking; this happened to Culpepper too. Tait is doing pretty well. Still a huge upside for him and he's been hitting well for the last month. Be great if he finishes the season strong. He's got really ugly splits, so it'll be interesting to see if he learns to hit LHP or if he's a platoon bat going forward.
  6. jmlease1
    Lol, I don't think either was unfairly ended here, but I'm hardly surprised they both landed elsewhere. It was pretty funny the people around here who swore neither would work in baseball again...
  7. jmlease1
    He's not particularly good at any defensive position and is barely a league average hitter. He's literally gotten worse every year since becoming a regular. Cincy's cheap-ass ownership is going to pay him $6M in arbitration? I guess if we have a salary floor by then, maybe. It's great that Francona loves him, and I'm sure he's a good guy and all too. It doesn't mean he's a starting quality MLB player, or that because he's willing to run out and play a position that he's actually good at it. Cincy is a pretty bad team, despite some good starters and Steer is unlikely to help them improve much, unless you see a sudden renaissance at 29. His only defensive position is 1B and he doesn't hit enough to be an asset there.
  8. jmlease1
    The Varland trade was bad at the time, and is bad now, even if Rojas shows potential and is substantially younger and controllable/cheaper. It only really made sense if you were going for a more complete tear-down, in which case Falvey should have just traded Ryan as well. But even then it's looking poor: Roden looks like a Quad-A guy (even if he's mostly just the swap for France who wasn't sticking around) and Rojas has a lot of work before he gets to Varland's level. Hells bells, they even botched it with Rojas after they brought him over, forcing him up to AAA on scholarship as if to prove "no no no, trust us, this guy is great!" Now, the ranking for the Duran trade is too harsh. Abel was really looking like he could be a guy before going down with injury, and still has a very bright future as a rotation piece who could be a playoff caliber, front-line starter. Tait hasn't lit the world on fire, but the tools are impressive and he's very young. You have to show some patience there and downgrading the trade because he didn't immediately crush A-ball is short-sighted. This one could still pan out to the Twins advantage, and if Abel starts 25 games next season this trade grade changes drastically. The Stewart/Outman trade was fairly meaningless but ultimately bad...but not because the deal was all that terrible. Taking a flier on Outman was ok, and Stewart's health makes him too unreliable to ever count on in your bullpen. Has he pitched well this season? Sure, but he's hurt...again. The real failure on this was not cutting your losses on Outman after his awful 2025. Handing him a job this year, despite him being terrible, wasted a roster spot for far too long. The trade itself wasn't that horrible, really...but if it meant that the FO thought it had to keep trying to extract value from it into 2026 makes it a bad deal. I think the Castro deal is also treated a little unfairly: Castro was gone after the season, and flipping a rental (who was absolutely a rental for Chicago, especially after being terrible) for an asset that at least has some upside and could provide some depth in Gallagher is a solid deadline move for a team that was cooked. Sure, Gallagher still has control issues and may not make it. But Willi Castro, despite being a great dude, was never sticking around: we weren't going to pay him, nor should we have. This was a reasonable deal for pitching depth.
  9. jmlease1
    It definitely seemed to happen to Culpepper last season. There's a real adjustment that guys need to make to the rigors of the long pro season, and Houston might be hitting the wall. Hopefully he can get a few more days off and finish out strong. It shouldn't be a surprise and it's another reason why the people insisting he be promoted to AAA needed a cup of Calm Down Juice. Diaw had a very nice week and is having an excellent season. He's an intriguing prospect. Gonzalez and Young both had good hitting weeks as well; Young is definitely a guy who has tools that need polishing. He can make loud contact that makes you see why he was drafted where he was...and then have a week where he misses everything and you wonder if he'll ever get out of A-ball. We'll need to be patient with this guy. GG has been inconsistent this year; hopefully he can finish on a high note. He should be competing for a job in spring training next season if he can get back on track. I still like his RH bat?
  10. jmlease1
    Can't ask for much more than we've gotten from Kremer so far. Nice to see the trade deadline guys generally playing well and showing why they were acquired. Pretty good offensive showing. Could have had even more runs early, but nice to exit the LH starter early by clogging up the bases with runners. Would have liked to see Adams pitch better with such a big lead and Rogers could have been better as well, but these guys are probably now in the bottom 3 of the bullpen which is a much better position to be in. (Baltimore can't be happy with Garcia or Wolfram last night; the former faced 4 guys and retired none of them, and Wolfram immediately surrendered a 3-run dinger. ouch.) Interesting to see former Twins prospect CES get in a game; he was the prospect I thought we might really regret losing, but so far he really hasn't done much (injuries have been a problem too). Mahle might have busted out for us because of injury, but the "big prospect haul" we gave up was more suspects than prospects (Hajjar out of baseball, CES got sold for cash, and after a nice rookie season Steer has turned into a utility player who probably won't be offered arbitration...)
  11. jmlease1
    I doubt the Mets asked for Jenkins in any conversation for Minter, unless they were obviously joking, because they didn't want the Twins hanging up on them and saying "these people are disconnected with reality" to everyone else around the league too. There's aiming high and then there's being insulting. Literally no team does that trade, even Dombrowski, who never saw a prospect he wouldn't deal, would have laughed at that and called them stupid. The different between Neto and Minter as a trade chip is night and day. Come on. I wouldn't have sent out Jenkins in a package for Neto either. With Culpepper and Houston both looking so good, I'm unclear why the Twins were supposedly so in on Neto, but either way, Jenkins was never going to be the centerpiece for that kind of deal: it would have had to have been Culpepper or Houston as the prime piece and that's probably not enough from the Angel's perspective. Now, the Angels have been terrible in almost every aspect , so who knows?
  12. jmlease1
    Diaw is having a wonderful season. Really liking what we're seeing from his hit tool. I think there's a little more pop to unlock as he matures, but with his athleticism if he could stick at catcher or play CF? He's lining himself to be in AAA at the start of 2027. Gotta feel good about his trajectory right now.
  13. jmlease1
    A very nice win. Good to see the offense get it done against a good LHP. They really tried to stack up the RH bats and it paid off. Bell and Lewis were stinging the ball and we definitely needed it. Did it lead to a less than optimal defensive alignment? It did, but that's the way it goes. With Lee scrabbling at the plate there weren't exactly a lot of other choices. Could they have swapped in Larnach in OF to get Clemens back at 2B and Lewis at 1B? Sure, but would that have made that much difference? I did like how Clemens pushed a bunt, considering how cold he's been lately. He was bunting for a hit, with the secondary bonus of moving runners up and he's been rough against LHP. Culpepper did fine. A little rocky on D, but on a couple of the plays where he couldn't find it the likelihood of him actually getting the runner was pretty low. The double play he hit into looked like a rookie not waiting for his pitch after ripping a homer. But the homer looked great! There's going to be some bumps, but I think he'll be fine. Great to get that first hit out of the way. He's got the first game done and it should smooth out some nerves. (man, his family looked so damn happy out there! was nice.) Not a great outing from Zebby. Left too many pitches out over the plate, wasn't finishing guys off well enough...but he gutted through it without a lot of help from the D. Bullpen on the other hand stepped up. Made it a little nervous, but the results were great.
  14. jmlease1
    It's tough for him in two different measures. 1) he's not on the 40-man. Not a huge issue right now (there's room to maneuver there) but it is a thing. 2) he literally can't play anywhere other than 1B or DH, making him duplicative of Josh Bell from a position standpoint. That's tough when teams carry 13 pitchers. Now, could Sabato contribute more than Alex Jackson? I would argue yes. But his role would be start against the short side of a platoon, pinch hit, and maybe get a little more run to rest a guy like Bell if he's not hitting? Give Lewis another day off or Clemens if Lewis slides to 2B? It's not a huge role. But it's at least interesting. I dunno if Sabato will get a shot in MN, but someone will take a look at him now. And props to him for continuing to grind, make adjustments, improve, and give himself a chance, especially after everyone, and I mean everyone (myself included) calling him a bust. I respect the heck out of a guy who in the face of all that, with real adversity in the minors, fought through it trying to realize his potential. Baseball is damnably hard. I dunno if Sabato can really make it in MLB (they say the gap between AAA and MLB is as big as it's ever been) and I'm sure some people can't stand the idea of seeing him up with the Twins (either because he's a Falvey pick, or because he's a guy who swings big and K's a lot) but I think it would be a heck of a story if he got a look and he might have something to add. Rooting for the dude. prove me and everyone else who called you a bust wrong. Make us look like the dumbass keyboard klowns we are. :P
  15. jmlease1
    You would hope, but there have been people pushing Houston like crazy this season because he's had an excellent half year. Houston is a 2027 player (and I say that as someone who likes him) but you'll never convince some people. I'm excited to have Culpepper up. It's the right move, and he's got real skills and potential. Hopefully people won't immediately quit on him if he doesn't light world up his first week. That said, here's hoping he crushes it out the gate! Wouldn't that be fun?
  16. jmlease1
    I don't think the Twins are that worried about trying to close a RoY award. It's the most random award around. If Culpepper hadn't gotten hurt, he probably would have been up even earlier. I think they've been looking at him as being with the team at midseason for some time and the injury almost certainly got in the way of that. YMMV on whether they kept him in AAA too long (I say yes, but I'm an idiot at a keyboard) after coming back, but this has been coming for a while IMHO.
  17. jmlease1
    As a general rule, I prefer that the Twins not invest substantial resources in the bullpen, but the sell-off last season was so extreme that they literally had no choice unless they were planning on a full-on rebuild. Which would have been a waste IMHO (too many good prospects near MLB, would have driven Buxton out of town, would have driven the interest down even further, and frankly wouldn't have had any better odds of success in bringing a title here really. Would have saved the Pohlads a bunch of money. screw that). While it's a bummer to give up a prospect like Hill, who has big upside (and bust bust capacity as well), we neither added a rental or a marginal player. We've rebuild the bullpen enough in 1 season to no longer look at it as a disaster, but even a potential strength...and without committing too much in terms of dollars to it either. There's not going to be a single arm in there they're paying $10M+, and Hoffman will likely be the most expensive arm with his discounted salary. That's a good place to be in. I liked the fact that they were willing to strike early. I prefer to see flexibility from a front office in how they approach things like this. Don't wait too long and hope something falls in your lap...but don't overpay early either. I hated it when Terry Ryan would rush to finish out his wishlist early and we'd end up with a lesser player filling a role as much as it sucked watching every good player at a position of need came off the board under Falvey. You have to be able to read the market and take risks going both directions in order to get the best value and best fits. Hopefully Zoll, under Pom Tohlad can do that. I'm not ready to declare a big shift in attitude around payroll and taking on money. It's a lot easier for the Twins to take on $5-7M in salary after they've chopped off $40M from the payroll already. I doubt we take on any money if the payroll is sitting up at $150M, but YMMV. I think they had a pretty good trade deadline, and get a little credit for doing what they said they would do if in this position, and filling the needs they said they would try and fill. But it's a little credit. Not full faith and credit. And not necessarily a signal that they've made that significant a shift in philosophy.
  18. jmlease1
    YES! this is excellent news. Looking forward to seeing what he can do. Hope they plan to start him basically every day. Kreidler is best suited to be a utility guy (and his ability to play quality CF defense is great) It make take a little time; I'm trying to not get ahead of my skis on Culpepper, but I am excited to see what he can do. I think he could be a really good player.
  19. jmlease1
    Have you really never experienced it when your boss changes and the new guy wants to go in a different direction? The difference between being the head of the division vs still reporting to someone else? It's sports so fans love to declare the GM incompetent and expect instant gratification, but...whatever.
  20. jmlease1
    Desperately needed this win. Still concerned about the offense; I would expect to see more runs with 7 hit and 7 walks. But it does seem like when the Twins are being patient at the plate and taking those walks it ends up turning into wins. Love seeing Lewis blast one. The re-set in the minors really does seem to have gotten his confidence back at the plate and he's back to showing off his talent. I'm into the idea of him being the primary 1B going forward. Sure, he wobbled a bit in July, but that's going to happen. There will be streaks. But he's no longer looking lost up there. Morris is certainly solidifying his place in the bullpen going forward. Team is in a much better position there now and for '27 as well. (if Sands recovers well from surgery, they bring back Banda and maybe Minter, and now you have a good bullpen from the jump next season)
  21. jmlease1
    Sure would like to to see Jenkins in MLB I mean, let's goooo! Nice to see Bohorquez have a good day. The stuff is great, but he's another one of those guys that has to find the zone most consistently. But this is 2 good outings in a row and 4 out of the last 5, so many he's starting to get into a rhythm and finding something that works for him. He still needs to figure out how to neutralize LH hitters better, but he's absolute death to righties. Still real potential here. Winokur seems to be handling AA ok so far; he's not destroying the pitching or anything (yet) but he's holding his own quite well and I like seeing him at 3B. The bundle of tools is still very intriguing and he's the sort of prospect that could make a big leap at any time if things click.
  22. jmlease1
    And if Zoll had dumped Wallner just to open a spot he would have been pilloried for that too. I think Zoll deserves a little more time to reshape the 40-man than a short run-up to the season after a shakeup in senior leadership and a trade deadline window where his priority had to be addressing immediate needs. And guys will stagnate less in AAA if the team would just call up someone rather than running around with a Tristan Gray. I suspect the twins 40-man will get some more significant tailoring in the offseason.
  23. jmlease1
    Lackey also played some 3B last year in college, maybe that could be a spot where he gets some reps if they just want him getting more ABs and there isn't enough DH time. I'm not super worried about how they will divide it up, just think it'll be interesting. Would not be surprised to see Diaw in AAA to start next season, with Tait & Lackey in AA. But no matter how it shakes out, this is a really good problem to have...
  24. jmlease1
    Mine too. I see him as more of a trade asset than a likely MLB Twin right now (I think the team is higher on Tait's potential?) but if he continues to hit with his athleticism he'll find a defensive home even if it's not at catcher long term. But I have no problem with continuing to give him time there right now, because he's still doing ok there. I'll be interested to see how he finishes the season, especially in terms of the pop in his bat. If can hit a few more doubles in Wichita through the end of the season it should be pretty fun. if he's getting 25-30 doubles along with the occasional dinger, that'll be a profile that works with his contact skills, speed, and understanding of the strike zone. It'll be interesting to see how they arrange their catchers in the organization next season. Really fun to see them have real organizational prospect depth at that spot, rather than hoping an Andrew Cossetti type might figure something out...
  25. jmlease1
    I don't think the Twins management sees it in such stark terms. I suspect they value making the playoffs and don't have a World Series or Bust mentality, and I can understand that. If you have to presume that you're a top 5 in the "power rankings" to have a legit shot at winning the WS, then that's going to be a tough hurdle for a team without the ability to buy itself out of any mistake or solve any problem by throwing cash at it. As I've discussed elsewhere, with the short series aspect to the playoffs, even with expanded rounds making it more advantageous to higher payroll teams, baseball post-season has a higher level of randomness than say the NBA. (no one seeded lower than 3 has won a title in the last decade; in MLB you've had 2 Wild Card teams take a WS as well as an Atlanta team which won a weak division and had the 5th best record in the NL) There's a fair argument that just getting into the playoffs gives you a shot. All you need is a chip, a chair, and a chance because who knows? Joe Ryan & Taj Bradley both getting on a roll in the playoffs could win you multiple series almost by themselves (seems unlikely now with Ryan's dead arm or whatever issues...but dude was a deserving all-star). So I think they wanted to show something to the fans. They wanted to show something to the players. And they simply want to make the playoffs if they can do it without wrecking their chances to stay competitive. I don't mind that; I'd rather my baseball team take as many reasonable shots to stay competitive as possible. They've disincentivized tanking anyways, and considering how easy it is for prospects to never be more than suspects, it not sure bet that stinking for several consecutive years to try and stockpile talent will work anyways. Now, I still think they need to actually play their rookies/prospect more and see what they have rather than give innings to the Tristan Grays of the world and shouldn't carry 3 catchers even if it means losing Jackson...but that's a different issue.
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