E. Andrew

Anyone else think McHugh and Dozier look like brothers?

He's looking really down on himself in these mound visits...

This is great, thanks Seth!

Download attachment: monster.PNG Hope for the 2013 season has faded, but Joe Mauer's dominance in the batter's box continues. Among many changes to the lineup, batting him second - not third - has been one move that Gardenhire has stuck to. But while it has led to an increase in plate appearances, the switch, among other factors, has led to a decrease in runs batted in. Several influences contribute, but the basics are obvious: an RBI requires a runner to be on-base. A look at the averages of those batting in front of Mauer reveals the hard evidence. The opportunities to bat second or third in an inning provide the best data. If Mauer bats fourth in an inning or later, he has a chance to do damage. If he bats first, an RBI is impossible. He can be driven in, of course, and help the offense, but he won't be able to produce others' runs, and he'd face the situation often, regardless of his position in the lineup. In 2013, Mauer has batted .386/.442/.514 (AVG/OBP/SLG) when leading off the inning. He's clearly doing his job there. Of course, Mauer bats second in the inning at the start of most games, and frequently thereafter. This season, he's had few opportunities to advance runners. The Twins' leadoff spot has been a Frankenstein's monster of ineffective plate appearances by ten different players, with the majority coming from Dozier, Carroll, Thomas, and Hicks. With a line of .199/.262/.300, this is by far the uggliest monster of all that has batted first in the Gardenhire era. The .562 OPS also makes up the third-weakest batter at any position since 2002, trailing only the 8th and 9th batters from 2011. While no one player has been quite this awful alone, a combination of poor timing and bad luck has led to exceptionally low averages at the top of the order. Batting second in the inning, Mauer comes to the plate with a runner-on just 26% of the time. Batting third in an inning, Joe's chance of driving in runs improves considerably. Mutually inclusive probability demonstrates that the ninth or first batter (or perhaps both) will regularly be on base when Mauer comes up. But at just 46% in 2013, the combination has the lowest rate in the Gardenhire era, thanks to the .268 OBP at the bottom of the lineup. For the purposes of comparison, look back at 2009. Then, the second spot could expect the ninth or first batter to be manning the bases in 59% of his appearances. That spot's modest .700 OPS drove in an impressive 94 runs, the most from that position since 2002. Mauer batted there just 32 times in 2009; the majority of the RBIs came from the motley crew of Orlando Cabrera, Brendan Harris, and Alexi Casilla. But in 2013, the bottom and top of the order are in shambles, and it's hurt Mauer's normally impressive stats. He could expect a bit more personal production if he followed two men in the first inning, but after that, little would change. Simply put, batters owe their RBI's to the players hitting in front of them. The immediate correlation is obvious. Runs come to those who get on base. But how do the on-base abilities at the top and bottom of the order set up the offense in general? Here is a graph of the yearly likelihood that the ninth or first batter was on-base for the second batter, along with a comparison with the overall runs per game. Download attachment: graphy.PNG Of course, correlation does not grant causation; many factors contribute to overall offense. But again, runners need to be on base for others to drive them in. The exceptionally stagnant performances at the top and bottom of the lineup have hurt the team immensely. Mauer is a great fit for the second spot. In a better offense, his ability to consistently reach first would advance runners and set up the heart of the order perfectly. But as the best bat on the team, his switch has sacrificed RBI potential for more plate appearances, with no one to follow his lead. As we've seen in the past, he can be dangerous hitting third as well, but there's little available to fill the hole he'd leave. Unfortunately, Joe Mauer can't bat after Joe Mauer. If only we had two. Click here to view the article

In a lost season, baseball fans take what they can get. Most get by on hope, and for the Twins, looking toward the future has begun as early as ever. Before elbow surgery, Kyle Gibson's name often topped lists of reasons to keep the faith. Though he's stumbled out of the gate, he has the tools to work at the top of the rotation, and he has the freedom to develop on-the-job. Here are five areas where Gibson can improve as he gains confidence in his pitches and trust in his catchers and coaches, beginning tonight. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Download attachment: chia.JPG [TABLE=width: 357] [TD=colspan: 4]CONTROL WITH RUNNERS ON BASE[/TD] (Plate Apps) AVG/OBP/OPS [/TD] SO/BB With RISP Gibson (34) .367/.412/.845 [TD=align: right]1.50 Twins .291/.356/.798 [/TD][TD=align: right]1.57 AL .259/.336/.736 [/TD][TD=align: right]1.89 [/TABLE] Traditional theory assumes most batters swing more freely with men on, looking for RBIs. But when pitching to them, Gibson leaves too many balls over the middle of the plate instead of consistently working the corners. Some may be mistakes, but others are untimely efforts to stay ahead of the batter. He spends little time "watching" runners back to the bag, instead working quickly after receiving the sign. While it's wise to trust base-stealing threats to veteran defenders, Gibson often looks too eager to rush the pitch and make up for the mistakes that put men on. Statistically, pitching performance shouldn't change dramatically with runners on base. Continuing at a natural pace and keeping the ball down and away from the batter - especially with his slider - will not only keep batters off-balance, but should induce ground balls and lead to more missed bats. [TABLE=width: 357] [TD=colspan: 4]TAKING WHAT'S EARNED[/TD] After 0-1 Count [/TD] Gibson (46) .275/.348/.648 [TD=align: right]3.33 Twins .241/.279/.638 [/TD][TD=align: right]5.08 AL .226/.265/.612 [/TD][TD=align: right]6.36 [/TABLE] After taking an 0-1 lead in the count, pitchers should gain a sizable advantage. Though Gibson is getting first pitch strikes at nearly the 60% league average, he converts them to outs far less often than his peers. After grabbing two strikes - an even greater lead - Gibson has a modest 2.20 SO/BB, compared to an AL average of 5.26. Some of the fault lies with Mauer, but that's to be expected. As both gain confidence in their game plan and pitch selection, strikeout rates will improve. SLIDER COMMAND Baseball America ranked Gibson's slider as the best in the Twins' organization after each of the last four seasons, but it's been his least "valuable" pitch in his short time in the majors. In his home collapse against the Yankees on July 4th, he relied heavily on the breaking ball and off-spead pitches (both 22%, vs. 56% fastball). Ten days later he found relative success in New York by dialing in on his command and increasing his power pitches to 71% (vs. 17% breaking balls and 12% off-speed). A lot of the damage on the slider is due to tough luck (.400 opponent BABIP), and it's still been his best pitch in producing swinging strikes. Expect to see usage rate increase as he gains confidence. Combining it with his controlled fastball and quality change-up will produce a powerful out-pitch and lead to a more impressive K-rate. [TABLE=width: 357] [TD=colspan: 4]GAME PROGRESSION[/TD] [TD=colspan: 4]Gibson vs. Batter[/TD] 1st PA (36) .303/.333/.727 [/TD][TD=align: right]3.00 2nd PA (36) .467/.556/1.122 [/TD][TD=align: right]0.50 [TD=colspan: 4]Twins(Starters) vs. Batter[/TD] 1st PA .307/.356/.823 [/TD][TD=align: right]1.86 2nd PA .285/.343/.775 [/TD][TD=align: right]1.68 [TD=colspan: 4]AL(Starters) vs. Batter[/TD] 1st PA .258/.315/.729 [/TD][TD=align: right]2.82 2nd PA .261/.323/.749 [/TD][TD=align: right]2.34 [/TABLE] Of course, hitters tend to improve slightly each time they face a pitcher in a game, but opposing batters have crushed Gibson after their first time up. Mauer has seen enough of the AL bats to have a feel for their strengths, but as noted previously, he hasn't seen enough of Gibson to embrace new combinations. His release points are consistent, and his velocity and movement look good. As Gibson's confidence develops and reliable pitch varieties follow, he should regain some ground. [TABLE=width: 357] [TD=colspan: 4]HANDLING LEFTIES[/TD] Gibson [/TD] vs. RHB (44) .231/.318/.626 [TD=align: right]3.00 vs. LHB (58) .380/.448/.908 [/TD][TD=align: right]0.33 Twins (RHPs) [/TD] vs. RHB .281/.331/.745 [TD=align: right]2.45 vs. LHB .285/.346/.791 [/TD][TD=align: right]1.68 AL (RHPs) [/TD] vs. RHB .251/.308/.705 [TD=align: right]3.16 vs. LHB .261/.330/.754 [/TD][TD=align: right]2.10 [/TABLE] Simply put, these splits are far too extreme to last. Gibson wouldn't be here if lefties could hit him at this rate. He's faced very well-coached (if only traditionally-potent) AL East lineups three times, and there are always adjustments to be made on the first go-around in the big show. He's a first-round draft pick, and he's earned his trip to the big leagues. Fear not. There’s been plenty of change across the club, and plenty of losses to match it. But the light is growing at the end of the tunnel. Though Twins fans will work to forget 2013, they can remember watching their future stars grow. Here's hoping Kyle Gibson becomes one of them. Click here to view the article

I finally caught up on Breaking Bad after giving up twice a year ago... now I need to check off another in the top tier of TV greatness. I'll watch the winner, and consider any others in the comments...

How about an aging, darker Batman down the road... with a simple suit, simpler morals...?

'piece' as 'peice'. For the life of me I have no idea why. It's the only word where I stop and think, and I always guess wrong.

Variety's poll is sitting at 77% - bad idea. Who would you pick? After Avatar I want to see Sam Worthington getting more work, I would love that. Here's other ideas.

I'll start a thread in the Sports Bar, we can fix it.

That's the key. The more baseball you watch, the more your anecdotal memories and human emotions cloud your perceptions of a player's overall value. Stats quantify the data mined from the eye test, and keep you 'level-headed'. It's a bit ridiculous for anyone to believe they can properly quantify all of the situations they've witnessed over 162 games in a season. Brad Pitt's 'Moneyball' wasn't really my thing, but I loved when he said 'I don't watch the games.'

This is a tremendous point. It is INCREDIBLY difficult to accurately criticize/critique on-field management in baseball, because most of the manager's responsibility takes place behind closed doors, and the parts that we can see usually vary in only the smallest amounts from the current 'book'. That said, motivation tends to be obvious to almost anyone that has played a sport at any level. We're often aware of it, even if we can't describe how. The Twins motivation has been frustrating at times. Baseball should be fun, and players shouldn't be machines. But guys like Thomas, Plouffe, Ramirez, and Arcia laugh off their near-mistakes with unfitting regularity. Doumit makes some really crap plays in right field, but he beats himself up over it. We've seen Deduno lose it in the dugout, and we saw Correia check off an impressive list of four letter words on Wednesday. Those are the players you want around.

A) Unfortunately, there aren't stats, at least specifically for mental errors. Regardless of where fieldF/X data takes us, defensive play will need human data collectors for the foreseeable future. These efforts are always expanding, but even stat-heads find the work tedious. I imagine most organizations work to catalog some of these stats through their advance scout work, but even they may not quantify it, and fewer scouts watch Clete Thomas than Oswaldo Arcia. And they don't compare notes. For public consumption, you'd have to depend on the motivation of a very dedicated fan. This is even more difficult. I think it would depend on the organization, and it would trend toward managers being held most accountable in small-market organizations. There are a variety of ways to produce/save runs, and its cheaper to find that value in defense. Certain clubs will accept defensive errors as the price for a potent bat. 'Poorer' clubs cannot... Despite our payroll, our 'executive' strategy still suggests a defensive, small-market approach. So I would say, YES, here. We have awful, awful batters, below replacement level. So players that make consistent defensive errors here should be removed. Though that changes in a rebuilding situation, the front office has some control too, mistakes do happen, etc.

Why, oh why, oh why did they have to call it dizziness. In this case, I would rather be lied to. Now I'm going to have to go to work tomorrow and listen to people throw another log in the 'Mauer's weak' fire.

I didn't really know the name until I started playing around with the Infield Organization Depth Chart. This kid's really put together an impressive season... It'd be interesting to get Mientkiewicz's thoughts on him, he's had really perceptive notes on Rosario's play...