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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I assume I am wrong about Duffey as most of my thoughts are stats and peripheral based but I think he can be an effective reliever. He was an effective reliever early last year and was used frequently.
  2. jorgenswest
    Field is younger than Austin and Astudillo. They are all within a year. He is also within a year of Cave.
  3. jorgenswest
    ‪Jake Cave on Brian Dozier in the Athletic‬ ‪“He obviously has a good amount of time, has made good money, but he never treated anybody differently,” Cave said. “That was cool to me, being a rookie. He talked to me any time I wanted to talk. He was awesome.”‬ So, Cave was sad to see Dozier go. Cave, though, is trying to continue using the things Dozier taught him on how to conduct himself as a professional baseball player. ‪https://theathletic.com/460105/2018/08/05/twins-sweep-royals-jake-cave-grand-slam-trade-dealine-robbie-grossman-disabled-list/‬
  4. jorgenswest
    It could be Astudillo.
  5. jorgenswest
    If Grossman is out the OF options are limited. Buxton, Granite and Wade on DL.
  6. jorgenswest
    I do not see a second half fall this year. I see a fall that connects with AAA on May 22. From the first day in AAA he has had poor strike out and walk rates. I think it is all pitch recognition. His strike out and walk rates were steady in 2017 until the last month and by end of the season those pitchers have likely improved their off speed offerings. It is pitch recognition. He can and will improve.
  7. jorgenswest
    He can scale this wall but they shouldn’t count on him in planning for next year. It won’t be linear progress. Once he has better command of the strike zone he will se better pitches and he will barrel up the ball more often. By June 1 next year I think we will be pushing for his major league debut.
  8. jorgenswest
    Two thoughts... -Most of the players acquired are in A ball or below. I don’t find adding a pitcher and middle infielder to the organization for this month worthy of outrage. Let’s see who is on the 40 this winter. - I really appreciate those who remember that these are men working hard fighting to stay in the game. There should never be a need to characterize anyone as trash from the bottom of dumpster.
  9. jorgenswest
    I don’t think he hit well enough to make up for his inability to play other positions. Where did the Twins miss out on the other deals for middle infielders? Schoop is not a rental. Cabrera has played SS and 3B recently (though I think poorly) and will for the Phillies. Kinsler is a fit. He returned 25 and 26 year old AAA relievers. There might be two arguments that the Twins missed an opportunity. 1) They should have traded him to the Red Sox for the relievers. 2) They should have traded him two winters ago for Jose DeLeon. I really enjoyed the run last season. I am glad they kept him in 2017. I prefer their return over the relievers. Time to move on. The market for Dozier was never good.
  10. jorgenswest
    Inherited runners are also a factor in the difference between the ERA+ of starters and relievers.
  11. jorgenswest
    This is correct. The ERA+ of starters as a whole is almost always in that range. It would be folly to project based on WAR or ERA or FIP but the Two s have a bunch more data in order to project next year. If he projects similarly or better they absolutely should take him to arbitration. I am also intrigued by the opener. He might be a good fit for a pitcher to come in following an opener with his reported better success twice through the line up.
  12. jorgenswest
    I agree. I would like to see Curtiss, Busenitz and Duffey. Have they used Duffey as an opener like they did May? I wonder if he would fit in that role. As a starter his first two innings were his best.
  13. jorgenswest
    If the Twins have a 5 man starting rotation, Garver should be catching 3 of those starters. I think they moved to that 60% at the break. He doesn’t need more game work to continue his improvement. He will need to continue the hard work off the field. I think there is still a lot to learn from Wilson. I would keep him through the season.
  14. jorgenswest
    I agree. I am sure would we both add the “as long as ends the season healthy”. Additional cost to keep him is 4 million. That is an amount they can easily write off if he isn’t effective.
  15. jorgenswest
    I am not sure the data supports holding up for a full season last year. Slash stats in a partial season are not useful. His strike out and walk rates in July of 2017 were pretty much in line or been better though his slash stats had fallen. This year those rates are much worse in AAA. I think it is pitch recognition at a level where the pitchers are throwing a lot of breaking balls and off speed pitches. He has had that trouble in AAA from the day he arrived in May long before the second half.
  16. jorgenswest
    It doesn’t need to tell us anything. The coaches watching each at bat will see his growth long before we see it in fangraphs. Growth isn’t linear. I think he will figure it out and start recognizing pitches and the switch will flip. At that point he just needs some time to sustain it in AAA.
  17. jorgenswest
    I agree. I don’t think service time was ever a factor but options might have been a factor. There is no need to burn an option and send him down at this point in the year though. Even if he levels off as a 4th/5th OF, the ability to move a guy back and forth is valuable.
  18. jorgenswest
    The question interests me. Is there an optimal time to move a pitcher? There are plenty of examples of guys like Chapman that started minor league games the year they started in the majors. On the other end of the spectrum there are examples of guys like Kimbrel that never started a game in the minors. I guess I would want the Twins to give guys like Alcala and Duran every opportunity for success as a starter.
  19. jorgenswest
    One of the reasons it would is impossible is because the people doing the ratings don’t see them play enough and rely heavily on their draft position or international money and slash stat data. It takes a few full years in the minors and some AA before the valuations start to be reliable. I would put no stock in any low A player’s FV or public ranking in system or overall. A skilled scout watching a handful of games would have a much more reliable assessment. How reliable are rankings or FV numbers for Duran, Maciel and Celestino? If they aren’t reliable how would we gather enough data to answer the question above?
  20. jorgenswest
    The days zeroed out. Great question... then what? I don’t want to see the Twins audition Forsythe. They would be auditioning him for all 30 with little to gain. A waiver wire deal isn’t as likely someone can just claim and block if he is looking that good. A month of his salary isn’t that significant and we have seen what secondbasemen are worth. Let’s see a lot of Adrianza. I would suggest at SS with Polanco at 2B. If not Adrianza, I would rather see Rosario at 2B than Forsythe. It would be a huge plays to have Rosario’s offense at that position. Can he turn a DP adequately?
  21. jorgenswest
    Yes. For players who haven’t seen action this year we might also Gonsalves and Wade. As for Gordon I hope they guarantee his age 29(?) season by keeping him in AAA for at least the few weeks necessary next year. In fact I really want to see a good two month stretch at that level. I hope he can start that clock today and continue into next year. In any case the way he has performed as he moved up I would trade a few weeks of 2019 for a full year at the other end.
  22. jorgenswest
    I think they would have dealt Gibson for the right offer. I am glad they dint do the Dozier for DeLeon deal when Dozier was at his peak value. The regular season has a lot of value. Competing and making a wild card spot provided a lot of entertaining g games throughout the season. In fact the same is true for individual games this year. I don’t need the Twins to be in contention to sit down and enjoy the great game of baseball. If there are fewer competitive games this year due to the Dozier trade that is a loss in value that the return may not bring back in the future.
  23. jorgenswest
    I like the return better than the Kinsler return. I wonder if they would look at Adrianza at SS and Polanco at 2B which is probably the better defensive fit. Out of the box look- Rosario at 2B with Buxton or Wade coming up to play OF.
  24. jorgenswest
    I wonder if the Twins had the same offer for Dozier of two AAA relievers already on the 40. The only reason to take that deal is to dump salary. The last thing the 40 needs going into the winter is more AAAA relievers. The front office would have to really believe in one of those guys to take the deal.
  25. jorgenswest
    Maybe the Twins had the same offer of 25 and 26 year old AAA relievers on the 40. There might be a little disappointment that they did not take this deal if Dozier is not moved but I would have waited seeking a younger player with upside not on the 40.
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