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What do the Twins do about Trevor Plouffe and Brian Dozier? Extend? Go year to year? Hope to sell high at 30? There has been some great discussion started by Seth on Dozier and Plouffe. Dozier is 27 years old and will become a free agent when he is 31 years old. Until that time the Twins can give him one-year deal, albeit at increasingly expensive contracts if he performs well. Plouffe is 28 years old and will become a free agent at 31 years old, too. There also have been studies that show aging curves in the post steroid era are changing. Fewer players are maintaining their peak seasons into their thirties. There are many studies to read. Here is one by Jeff Zimmerman for Fangraphs.I wondered how players currently around 33 years old have aged. With the help of play index from Baseball Reference, I searched for all players who had seasons with an OPS+ of 100 or better in 2006-7 as 26- or 27-year-olds. There were many others that were below that level but they were probably not in any team consideration for getting an extension. Before getting to the group there is one player who might be included in the group who should be mentioned here, because he is an extreme outlier. He, by age 27, was with his 5th team, having been waived twice and traded for the likes of Justin Huber and Robinson Diaz. After over 1500 plate appearances through age 27 he had an OPS+ of 89. For comparison, Chris Parmelee sits at 96 and he was just released by the Twins. Tony Batista, that one player, has had a performance since age 27 that has been outstanding with his opportunity in Toronto. He didn't make the group because at age 27 Pittsburgh wasn't thinking extension, they were thinking dump. I would like to place a table of data below so you can see all of the players. The new blogging software makes tables very difficult. All 24 of the players in the search can be found in this google sheet. For each player I grouped his performance in three season chunks using ages 25-27, 28-30 and 31-33. I did this so that any single year variation did not stand out. I also used three as it is the norm in many projection systems. There were a few middle infielders in the group including Mike Aviles, Khalil Greene, Brandon Phillips and Dan Uggla. There were some former Twins like Ryan Doumit, Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel. I added Jason Bartlett, but he did not meet the first criteria since his over 100 OPS+ seasons came after 27. His decline at 31-33 is similar to several others. I wondered how many of the players had more plate appearances AND a better OPS+ from 31-33. The answer was none; no one had more plate appearances and a better OPS+ from 31-33 than they did from 25-27. No one. There were, though, two players with a better OPS+ from 31-33. Matt Holliday had an increase of 5% in OPS+ while coming to the plate 5% less than he did from ages 25-27. Shane Victorino had an OPS+ increase of 4% while injuries and platooning dropped his playing time by 17%. Brain Dozier through his age 27 season sits at a career OPS+ of 98 in 1670 plate appearances. Maybe the Twins will get lucky and he will follow a path similar to Brandon Phillips. He only dropped 1% in his age 31-33 seasons while playing time dropped by 6%. From age 28-30, he was up 13% compared to 25-27. Trevor Plouffe through age 28 has an OPS+ of 99. Plouffe and Dozier started at an older age. Does that make a difference? Aging curve studies suggest that it will work against them and later career starts lead to earlier declines. There are several players in the group who started at age 25 or 26. They did not age well. The two that improved debuted at 22 (Victorino) and 24 (Holliday). The decline of players into their early thirties is real. Teams need to plan for it as they make any extension offer. Player with and OPS+ of 125 or better over three years have plenty of room for decline. That isn't the case for Dozier and Plouffe. If the Twins do decide to buy free agent years from either, the Twins must be certain that there is something different in Plouffe and Dozier that will keep them playing at their peak longer than anyone in this group. Click here to view the article

What do the Twins do about Plouffe and Dozier? Extend? Go year to year? Hope to sell high at 30? There has been some great discussion started by Seth on Dozier and Plouffe. There also have been studies that show aging curves in the post steroid era are changing. Fewer players are maintaining their peak seasons into their thirties. There are many studies to read. Here is one by Jeff Zimmerman for Fangraphs. I wondered how players currently around 33 years old have aged. With the help of play index from Baseball Reference, I searched for all players that had seasons with an OPS+ of 100 or better in 2006-7 as 26 or 27 year olds. There were many others that were below that level but they were probably not in any team consideration for getting an extension. Before getting to the group there is one player in the group that should be addressed. One player by age 27 was with his 5th team having been waived twice and traded for the likes of Justin Huber and Robinson Diaz. After over 1500 plate appearances through age 27 he had an OPS+ of 89. For comparison, Chris Parmelee sits at 96 as the Twins have released him. Jose Bautista's performance since age 27 has been outstanding with his opportunity in Toronto. He didn't make the group because at age 27 Pittsburgh wasn't thinking extension, they were thinking dump. I would like to place a table of data below so you can see all of the players. The new blogging software makes tables very difficult. All of the players in the search can be found in this google sheet. For each player, I grouped their performance in 3 season chunks using ages 25-27, 28-30 and 31-33. I did this so that any single year variation did not stand out. I also used three as it is the norm in many projection systems. There were a few middle infielders in the group including Mike Aviles, Khalil Greene, Brandon Phillips and Dan Uggla. There were some former Twins like Ryan Doumit, Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel. I added Jason Bartlett, but he did not fit the first criteria since his over 100 OPS+ seasons came after 27. His decline at 31-33 is similar to several others. I wondered how many of the players would play have a better OPS+ from 31-33 as well as more plate appearances in that time frame. With over 20 players in the group, no one had more plate appearances and a better OPS+ from 31-33 than they did from 25-27. No one. There were two players with a better OPS+ from 31-33. Matt Holliday had an increase of 5% in OPS+ while coming to the plate 5% less than he did from ages 25-27. Shane Victorino had an OPS+ increase of 4% while injuries and platooning dropped his playing time by 17%. Brain Dozier through his age 27 season sits at a career OPS+ of 98 in 1670 career plate appearances. Maybe the Twins will get lucky and he will follow a path similar to Brandon Phillips. He only dropped 1% in his age 31-33 seasons while playing time dropped by 6%. From age 28-30, he was up 13% compared to 25-27. Trevor Plouffe through age 28 has an OPS+ of 99. Plouffe and Dozier started at an older age. Does that make a difference? Aging curve studies suggest that it will work against them and later career starts lead to earlier declines. There are several players in the group who started at age 25 or 26. They did not age well. The two that improved debuted at 22 (Victorino) and 24 (Holliday). The decline of players into their early thirties is real. Teams need to plan for it as they make any extension offer. Player with and OPS+ of 125 or better over three years have plenty of room for decline. That isn't the case for Dozier and Plouffe. If the Twins do decide to buy free agent years from either, the Twins must be certain that there is something different in Plouffe and Dozier that will keep them playing at their peak longer than anyone in this group.

Lots of things point towards Stauffer trending down. -Changing to AL -Moving from Petco Park (0.826 and 29th) to Target Field (1.116 and 3rd) -In the decline phase of career. Non closers drop off significantly from age 31 to 33. -Used in low leverage last year. If the Twins change that use it will impact performance. His ERA and missed bats in low leverage situations were nice last year, but it would be foolish for the Twins to take last year's numbers and project something similar this year. http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor I also did a study of aging on relievers from 31 to 33 when the Twins were considering extending Burton after 1 year. He declined significantly passed 31. Unfortunately, the study is unreadable after TD's change in blogging software last summer. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-1759-burton-whats-is-the-future-for-a-31-year-old-set-up-man/

The Twins extended Span through his age 31 season. The Twins already have that team control with Dozier. It isn't a good comp unless the ages are the same. Two guys that started at a similar are Donaldson and Carpenter. They have career OPS+ of 125 (far better than Dozier's best single season). Kipnis is a year younger on the path and has a career OPS+ of 109. All have space for decline. Dozier has a career OPS+ of 98. There is no space for the decline. Shouldn't they at least wait until the career number look closer to 110 in OPS+? The best path is to sell high by age 30 and let someone else buy the decline. His contract will be easier to trade if it does not include age 32 or 33 seasons. They must not extend now and buy a free agency year. Span is not a good comp. They didn't commit to Span's age 32 season and even age 31 was an option.

At SS they need to use the guy with the better glove. If it is Escobar, then Santana can fill a need in CF. If Santana, Escobar will get plenty of at bats in the utility role.

I am sure you are correct. Last year the Twins had one of the oldest pitching staffs in the AL. The number of innings from 25 and under was near the bottom. Those veterans gave them near bottom performance from the pen and rotation. Is a long term solution in the plan? Ryan's solution is to fill their bullpen with guys in their 30s in Perkins, Fien, Duensing, Pelfrey and Stauffer. Perkins is the only one of the 5 that would make any roster.

Neil Allen was a starter in the minors. He hit the majors at 21 as a reliever mixing in 5 starts in 50 appearances. After closing for a few seasons, he returned to the starting rotation at 25 with the Cardinals. I wonder how that experience will influence him as a coach. I would hope he would see it as a positive and be open to the idea of Meyer or May in a similar role. A bullpen including decline phase players in Stauffer, Pelfrey, Duensing and Fien does nothing to build this team long term. I would rather see that opportunity go to Tonkin, Oliveros, Pressly, May, Meyer, Graham or maybe even Achter. If any off those guys develop, the Twins have a piece of the future.

I won't be opposed until he makes the roster in favor of Tonkin. There are very few people left who would call a Target Field a pitching friendly park. It was number 3 in park factor according to runs last year. Number 1 in the AL. Every element of offense was given a boost in Target Field. One year isn't enough to judge a park. The usual standard is three years. The two years previous it ranked 10 and 12. Target Field did look like a pitching friendly park in its inaugural season. That impression created the first season lingers in a few minds.

It may be his last chance to be a regular CF, but he has demonstrated skills that can help a major league team. He can hit left handed pitching. He would be an above average defender on a corner. He is adequate in CF. Some team will give him a role platooning in RF with a guy that doesn't hit left handed pitching well and is limited defensively. His skills play well on a bench. Defensive replacement, pinch hitter against a LOOGY, pinch running and a platoon option on a corner. I would give him two more months to see if he can hit righties well enough to be a regular CF. Meanwhile Rosario is the AAA CF and Buxton is the AA CF. On June 1 if either is dominating while Hicks is struggling, they come up and take over and Hicks slides into a bench role and start him on a corner against lefties.

Hicks is a useful player. He has a good arm. His acceptable CF play would be a plus on a corner. He had an OBP over 340. His career OPS against lefties is .758 (792 last year). He is young and will get better even without fixing. He could platoon with Arcia right now and be valuable.

Meyer has 40 starts in AAA and AA. Compare that to Ventura or Duffy or Richards or Sale or Zimmerman or Cueto or ... Meyer has 27 starts in AAA and counting. Some teams would have had him in the rotation after half season at that level. The only possible conclusion is that the Twins don't see him as a good starter and are unwilling to invest starts in a future back end of the rotation guy. If they see otherwise, they need to make a spot for him now. They same can be said for May. This team will continue its cycle of mediocrity if they can not acquire, develop and invest playing time into their own young talent. The signing of Willingham followed by Hunter, the string of starters beginning with Correia, Doumit followed by Suzuki have helped them approach mediocre. It won't help them develop the next team that wins a playoff series. That help must come from within.

The only way out of mediocrity is to develop starting pitching. That takes talent and opportunity. The Twins front office at this point must not see much talent or isn't willing to risk the chance that their struggle may cost a few games. Meyer is at an age where he is close to peak velocity. He will spend that time in the minors. May likely won't be given enough starts to develop. Viola and Radke struggled for two years without being sent down. Today's Twins would have returned Santana after a few months of awful pitching his rookie year. The new stadium need people In the seats. The Twins have a better chance of filling those seats short term by giving the illusion of being competitive into July. The short term gains accomplished by filling with decline phase veterans has a cost on the long term solution.

As long as we have the attitude gap filled, who cares about the one in left center.

I wonder if pairing Santana with Pinto would work. Suzuki wore down with the workload they gave him last year. They need Pinto to fit in somewhere and keep Suzuki closer to 100 starts. I would think if Pinto is going to develop into the catcher they need, it is going to be a veteran with command like Santana.

I wrote this elsewhere... Extending a very good player like Donaldon or Carpenter through 33 makes sense because they have room for decline with their career OPS+ of 125. They are likely to still be a valuable player. Plouffe has a career OPS+ of 99 at a similar spot in his career. It is much less likely that he will be a valuable player. He has little room for decline.

Awful pitching. Awful defense in the OF. Awful pitch framing. Together they gave up 777 runs or 107 runs above league average and last in the AL. How many of those 107 is on the defense can be argued but is really unknown. We can probably agree that both need fixing. We probably also agree that nothing has been accomplished this winter that fixes either.

Phil Hughes was 6th among qualified pitchers in FIP (2.65) and 42nd (3.52) in ERA. Seems like something had a negative impact on his performance. By ratio, no qualified pitcher had a greater disparity in the ERA compared to their FIP. It is true that as long as the Twins can put together a rotation of 5 guys that put up league top 10 FIPS, they will perform well in spite of the horrific outfield defense.

It will give the Twins very little leverage to get anything in return.

Moving Arcia to left field would be so short sighted. Rosario is not going to be RF. They desperately need a player with range in LF and they signed another DH.

In my argument I almost said that if either put up san OPS+ like Carpenter or Donaldson it would be a different question. They both also started career at 26 but put up an OPS+ in the 140s in their second year. There is a whole bunch of room for decline from that level.

The Yankees let Nunez go because he can't play 2B. They kept Anna and Solarte instead. In the few games Dozier missed, they moved Escobar over instead of using Nunez at 2B. He is more 3B/LF/emergency SS than true utility. I wouldn't mind if they sign him though. A trade of a Plouffe may open a temporary role. The salary might keep others from claiming when DFA'd and he can be stashed in Rochester.

A difference between Plouffe and Dozier compared to the previously mentioned Span, Seager and Gyorko is the age in which they would hit free agency ending team control. I hope the Twins management has the belief that there is a significant difference between losing a player at age 30 and losing a player at age 32. They extended Span through age 31 with option. They don't need to do that with Dozier and Plouffe. They have those seasons under team control. It doesn't matter the player. No player projects to play better at age 32 than age 30. No random large group of players performs better as a group at age 32 than age 30. Extending contracts so that a big portion of the contract value is during the age 32-33 seasons is going to make them very difficult to trade. Teams signing free agents don't have a choice. They have to pay for the decline. The Twins don't need to pay for the decline of players under team control through the typical peak.

Gyorko was a college draftee. Seager was a college draftee. Dozier may have been on a fast track, but he also had the full track. Seager and Gyorko played A Ball the summer they were drafted. On the short track, both had their first full season in the majors at 24. Dozier was 26. The Twins get two more years of control through the aging curve.

The A's traded number 1 starter Rich Harden for four young players in 2008. Rich Harden was a sell high and the trade was seen by some as a steal for the Cubs. One of the prospects in return on a buy low was Josh Donaldson. He was their number 7 prospect going into 2008 and was having a bad season. He certainly had fallen out of their top 10. Somehow the A's scouts always make these deals work. Will it be Brett Lawrie? Is he traded 5 years from now for another 4 guys? Will it be the 18 year old SS prospect? Do the A's see something in those starting pitching prospects? I don't know. They continue to win by selling high. It works because of the success of their scouting department finding the right guys.