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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I write about the 4 year outlook for Santana a while back. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6349-what-can-the-twins-expect-from-santana-and-nolasco/ The Twins really needed to bank on his first two years. He looked to decline to a number 5 starter or worse the last two years. That was assuming he wasn't helped by steroids. If the evidence is there and confirmed, release him. Do it today.
  2. jorgenswest
    The Twins need to release him today. He was a number 4 starter using steroids. Off the steroids he will decline fast. He is of no use to the Twins. He has no trade value. They are not going to sell more tickets in games he starts. He just takes a spot that needs to go to the future. Maybe this will stop Terry from bringing in veterans to be role models and mentors. .
  3. jorgenswest
    I found some comps of players with a similar age and performance through age 28 while thinking about Schafer last fall. Not too many Brady Andersons. In fact only one. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6225-jordan-schafer-breakout-or-bust/
  4. jorgenswest
    I agree. He is the kind of player that teams projected for 90 losses should give two months. If he looks OK as hid did last summer, give him another two months.
  5. jorgenswest
    His other two years of more than semi regular play he put up an OPS of just under 600. Steamer and ZIPs projection fall on both sides of 600. This is probably his peak season and the Twins play in a park that boosts offense so maybe a really optimistic OPS is 630. In a strict platoon maybe he can approach 700. If he is in the low 600s on June 1, I hope the Twins will look elsewhere. ZIPs and Steamer like Gose much better than Schafer. His CF metrics are better. He is at a age and experience level in his career where a jump up is much more likely. It is really hard to buy an argument that Schafer will outperform him with the bat or the glove. If the White Sox offered Gose for Schafer, the Twins should take it and run.
  6. jorgenswest
    Seems like they could have began Pelfrey's transition much earlier. Now we have a long reliever that can't come in the middle of an inning until he is comfortable. Let's start the year with that additional burden on the rest of the bullpen. Isn't a long man almost always needed mid inning? I guess they could use him as an 8th inning guy who less often is needed to come in and put out a fire. This could have been foreseen. It is well known that Pelfrey's performance drops off with runners on base. It is also know that he has a long warm up routine.
  7. jorgenswest
    I think a team projected for 90 losses should be searching the waivers for guys like Felix Dubront to pitch the low leverage innings rather than decline phase veterans that will not be part of the solution. If Stauffer or Boyer don't have the talent to be late inning guys, they should not have a place on this roster.
  8. jorgenswest
    They needed to go with young arms and let them grow. They would rather rid the certain mediocrity (or worse) from a veteran than give a long look to a young bullpen arm. They need to invest in that upside instead of continuing to cycle through cheap veterans. The old way of building a bullpen hasn't worked since his return. The bullpens of 2012-2014 were among the worst in baseball. At some point we have to stop thinking that Ryan has the ability to put together a good bullpen on the cheap.
  9. jorgenswest
    The Twins might find better solutions than Nunez and Robinson among those DFA'd. Sounds like Nunez doesn't have the ability to defend anywhere. The Yankees came to that conclusion a year ago. If he is only a bat, wouldn't there be better options among those DFA'd? Maybe the Twins can hit on a Sam Fuld type for the fourth OF again. They should be looking for bullpen upgrades among the DFA's also.
  10. jorgenswest
    How about strike outs instead of xFIP? Let's just look at inning 7-9 and throw out the middle relievers coming in after those short starts. The Twins late inning relievers were 30th last year and it was even close. Even an improvement of 10% from 321 to 353 would keep them with a rank of 30. They ranked 19th in 2013 and 30th in 2012. The bullpen Ryan built for the team last year performed among the league's worst if not the worst. That includes the performance of the late inning guys. They performed poorly last year. They haven't performed well since Ryan returned. Maybe it is not possible to cobble together a cheap bullpen in the current era that Ryan has reentered. Maybe good bullpens are built on strong young arms rather than cast off veterans.
  11. jorgenswest
    Since his return Ryan's bullpens have ranked 28th, 24th and 29th according to xFIP. While cheap, they haven't been quality.
  12. jorgenswest
    I wonder if anyone other than Perkins would make the Royals bullpen. Adding to the frustration is that they have no one with upside other than Graham. I suppose Pelfrey may have upside. How would they know? Has Pelfrey even come in mid inning with runners on base? Have they evaluated his ability to pitch on back to back days? Do they have any idea if he is suited for the role?
  13. jorgenswest
    There is a small chance that Schafer will find some of the promise once projected for him. Brady Anderson, with the help of steroids, did it at his number of plate appearances. It is hard to find many others, but it is worth a shot until June 1. I have to believe that by June 1 one of Hicks, Rosario or even Buxton will be ready to take over. Meanwhile they can be on the watch for another fourth OF type to be DFA'd or go with Robinson as the fourth OF. Schafer and Nunez are the kinds of chances a 90 loss team should take.They can close the book on Nunez soon, but Schafer is worth a two month shot.
  14. jorgenswest
    I sure hope the Twins are not looking at spring training stats in making roster decisions.
  15. jorgenswest
    The Twins have team control through age 28. I don't know what the numbers need to be, but I would be talking with his agent about an extension that gives the Twins control over first his two seasons in free agency. I don't value cost control nearly as much as team control through a players peak seasons. Any deal that only buys arb seasons would not be one I think the Twins should consider.
  16. jorgenswest
    Travis has a point about the Twins. However it is 2.2 million. It is an amount similar to a small arbitration award. The salaries of Duensing, Milone, Schafer and Nunez surround Stauffer's salary. I will follow this spring if any teams are willing to release a player at that commitment level. If the Twins aren't willing, that means that they have fixed roster spots for 5 near replacement level players before the first day of spring.
  17. jorgenswest
    No team would have signed a decline phase low leverage reliever with poor road numbers with absolute expectation that he would be on the roster. There had to be some conversation about the risk that they may need to release him. There is also no reason to give a low leverage spot to a pitcher with no upside. At the time of his signing, they had to be thinking that he is either a cheap 2 million dollar replacement for Burton or released if he didnt look like he would help in that role. Any trade talk is futile. The signed him for 2 million and if anything his stock has gone down. Any team that wanted him this winter could have had him easily. Why would they trade for him? Why would they give up a player and pay the price that they wouldn't pay his winter?
  18. jorgenswest
    Back to roster decisions... It is clear the Twins don't want a young pitcher who can work his way out of command trouble with great stuff. They would prefer a veteran pitcher who has no stuff to get him out of trouble as a result of contact and poor defense. This quote from an article by Eno Sarris might be relevant. http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/72512952/major-league-baseball-pitchers-velocity-peaks-at-an-early-age I wrote about how it isn't unusual for pitchers with good stuff to have high walk rates in the minors. Some teams will bring those pitchers to the majors in spite of their walk rate. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6339-alex-meyer-and-aaa-walk-rates/#commentsStart One theory on the higher walk rates is that minor league hitters can't make as much contact against pitchers with good stuff. This forces longer counts and more walks. Instead of poor contact and an out early in a count, they are making no contact. If the Twins wait long enough, Meyer's command will improve as a result of a decline in fastball. According to Sarris's graph, velocity starts taking a noticeable drop at around age 26-27. They will be comfortable to bring him up then with some of the similarly aging reliever candidates.
  19. jorgenswest
    It didn't get worse for these guys. Poor walk rates didn't stop their clubs from bringing them up to the majors. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6339-alex-meyer-and-aaa-walk-rates/
  20. jorgenswest
    Doesn't Herrmann's option give the team more flexibility? They will need a 13th pitcher at some point. Herrmann can move back and forth when that is necessary. Escobar, Schafer and Robinson don't come with that same flexibility. Pinto and Hicks have an option but I don't think they would want them going back and forth. It will be easier to get Nunez through when every team is trying to cut down to 25. His arb1 salary also might make it less likely someone would claim him.
  21. jorgenswest
    ... and the cycle of mediocrity continues. The worst bullpen in the AL. The only changes are Burton to Stauffer. Swarzak to Pelfrey. Deduno to Graham. Everyone else is another year into their decline. The younger AAA arms are getting older in the minors. They are all already past their age of peak velocity.
  22. jorgenswest
    My guess is Hunter will have a good half season and get an extension. Either that or he will be in full decile mode this year. Either way Minnesota is sure to get the decline. It's the Twins way. Sign a guy, get a few good months and then let them play through the decline. Sometimes they do it with an extension like a Doumit or Burton. Sometime times they pay for it upfront like Willingham After they extend Hunter, Stauffer will be next in line.
  23. jorgenswest
    Great report Nick. Thanks.
  24. jorgenswest
    On the question of strikeouts, Twin catchers suppress strike outs. When cFIP is calculated, Twins pitcher strikeout rates will be adjusted (increased) due to the catcher. The other FIP variants do a good job keeping pitching independent of the defense in the outfield and the infield. The difference between last year's FIP/xFIP and ERA might be explained by the poor defense in the OF. FIP and xFIP do not adjust for the catcher or umpire.
  25. jorgenswest
    So glad someone else brought this forward. Jonathan Judge's recent work on cFIP and on measuring catcher framing has added to the debate. The outfield defense is already factored into the other variants. The Twins had much better FIPs and cFIPs than ERAs. It wasn't bad luck. It was bad defense. Most of the FIP variants base themselves on basically three outcomes. Strike outs. Walks. Home runs. FIP sees them as defense independent. Variants try to adjust them. The catcher and umpire part of the calculation is new with cFIP. The catcher is added to the strikeout, walk and hit by pitch part of the equation. The umpire to the walk and hit by pitch. Not sure why the umpire isn't in the strike out part of the equations. Home runs get the stadium as part of that calculation. How does it differ from the other FIP variants? The biggest impact for Twin pitching is the catcher. Twin pitchers are losing strikeouts and adding walks due to their catcher and their ability to get strike and ball calls (and hence strike outs and walks). While the front office has been madly spending dollars trying to fix the pitching, little has been done to recognize the impact of the outfield and the catcher on preventing runs. On the other hand, maybe the Twins are right and the problem is solely awful pitching with the outfield defense and poor framing numbers having little impact on runs given up. Judge's recent work may just be added to the pile of work that the Twins and many on this board think should be ignored.
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