jorgenswest

I wonder if anyone other than Perkins would make the Royals bullpen. Adding to the frustration is that they have no one with upside other than Graham. I suppose Pelfrey may have upside. How would they know? Has Pelfrey even come in mid inning with runners on base? Have they evaluated his ability to pitch on back to back days? Do they have any idea if he is suited for the role?

There is a small chance that Schafer will find some of the promise once projected for him. Brady Anderson, with the help of steroids, did it at his number of plate appearances. It is hard to find many others, but it is worth a shot until June 1. I have to believe that by June 1 one of Hicks, Rosario or even Buxton will be ready to take over. Meanwhile they can be on the watch for another fourth OF type to be DFA'd or go with Robinson as the fourth OF. Schafer and Nunez are the kinds of chances a 90 loss team should take.They can close the book on Nunez soon, but Schafer is worth a two month shot.

I sure hope the Twins are not looking at spring training stats in making roster decisions.

The Twins have team control through age 28. I don't know what the numbers need to be, but I would be talking with his agent about an extension that gives the Twins control over first his two seasons in free agency. I don't value cost control nearly as much as team control through a players peak seasons. Any deal that only buys arb seasons would not be one I think the Twins should consider.

Travis has a point about the Twins. However it is 2.2 million. It is an amount similar to a small arbitration award. The salaries of Duensing, Milone, Schafer and Nunez surround Stauffer's salary. I will follow this spring if any teams are willing to release a player at that commitment level. If the Twins aren't willing, that means that they have fixed roster spots for 5 near replacement level players before the first day of spring.

No team would have signed a decline phase low leverage reliever with poor road numbers with absolute expectation that he would be on the roster. There had to be some conversation about the risk that they may need to release him. There is also no reason to give a low leverage spot to a pitcher with no upside. At the time of his signing, they had to be thinking that he is either a cheap 2 million dollar replacement for Burton or released if he didnt look like he would help in that role. Any trade talk is futile. The signed him for 2 million and if anything his stock has gone down. Any team that wanted him this winter could have had him easily. Why would they trade for him? Why would they give up a player and pay the price that they wouldn't pay his winter?

Back to roster decisions... It is clear the Twins don't want a young pitcher who can work his way out of command trouble with great stuff. They would prefer a veteran pitcher who has no stuff to get him out of trouble as a result of contact and poor defense. This quote from an article by Eno Sarris might be relevant. http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/72512952/major-league-baseball-pitchers-velocity-peaks-at-an-early-age I wrote about how it isn't unusual for pitchers with good stuff to have high walk rates in the minors. Some teams will bring those pitchers to the majors in spite of their walk rate. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6339-alex-meyer-and-aaa-walk-rates/#commentsStart One theory on the higher walk rates is that minor league hitters can't make as much contact against pitchers with good stuff. This forces longer counts and more walks. Instead of poor contact and an out early in a count, they are making no contact. If the Twins wait long enough, Meyer's command will improve as a result of a decline in fastball. According to Sarris's graph, velocity starts taking a noticeable drop at around age 26-27. They will be comfortable to bring him up then with some of the similarly aging reliever candidates.

It didn't get worse for these guys. Poor walk rates didn't stop their clubs from bringing them up to the majors. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6339-alex-meyer-and-aaa-walk-rates/

Doesn't Herrmann's option give the team more flexibility? They will need a 13th pitcher at some point. Herrmann can move back and forth when that is necessary. Escobar, Schafer and Robinson don't come with that same flexibility. Pinto and Hicks have an option but I don't think they would want them going back and forth. It will be easier to get Nunez through when every team is trying to cut down to 25. His arb1 salary also might make it less likely someone would claim him.

... and the cycle of mediocrity continues. The worst bullpen in the AL. The only changes are Burton to Stauffer. Swarzak to Pelfrey. Deduno to Graham. Everyone else is another year into their decline. The younger AAA arms are getting older in the minors. They are all already past their age of peak velocity.

My guess is Hunter will have a good half season and get an extension. Either that or he will be in full decile mode this year. Either way Minnesota is sure to get the decline. It's the Twins way. Sign a guy, get a few good months and then let them play through the decline. Sometimes they do it with an extension like a Doumit or Burton. Sometime times they pay for it upfront like Willingham After they extend Hunter, Stauffer will be next in line.

Great report Nick. Thanks.

On the question of strikeouts, Twin catchers suppress strike outs. When cFIP is calculated, Twins pitcher strikeout rates will be adjusted (increased) due to the catcher. The other FIP variants do a good job keeping pitching independent of the defense in the outfield and the infield. The difference between last year's FIP/xFIP and ERA might be explained by the poor defense in the OF. FIP and xFIP do not adjust for the catcher or umpire.

So glad someone else brought this forward. Jonathan Judge's recent work on cFIP and on measuring catcher framing has added to the debate. The outfield defense is already factored into the other variants. The Twins had much better FIPs and cFIPs than ERAs. It wasn't bad luck. It was bad defense. Most of the FIP variants base themselves on basically three outcomes. Strike outs. Walks. Home runs. FIP sees them as defense independent. Variants try to adjust them. The catcher and umpire part of the calculation is new with cFIP. The catcher is added to the strikeout, walk and hit by pitch part of the equation. The umpire to the walk and hit by pitch. Not sure why the umpire isn't in the strike out part of the equations. Home runs get the stadium as part of that calculation. How does it differ from the other FIP variants? The biggest impact for Twin pitching is the catcher. Twin pitchers are losing strikeouts and adding walks due to their catcher and their ability to get strike and ball calls (and hence strike outs and walks). While the front office has been madly spending dollars trying to fix the pitching, little has been done to recognize the impact of the outfield and the catcher on preventing runs. On the other hand, maybe the Twins are right and the problem is solely awful pitching with the outfield defense and poor framing numbers having little impact on runs given up. Judge's recent work may just be added to the pile of work that the Twins and many on this board think should be ignored.

Just wondering... How much would it cost a team to bring salaries up to a reasonable wage? Is it possible that on doing so, a few more players would make the majors that otherwise wouldn't?

Thanks for the article. He messed up on the bases and the manager dealt with it in game. I respect that approach much more than making offhand comments in a press conference. I think Hicks will also and respond positively. His approach at the plate is moving in a positive direction. I trust Molitor to know where he should begin the season.

At some point the Twins need to see how Pelfrey does when he comes in with runners on base. His performance as a starter with runners on base was significantly worse than with the bases empty. It contributed to ERAs that were worse than his FIPs. It could be his slowed pace with runners on. It could be a drop in performance when pitching from the stretch. They also need to see how his arm bounces back and whether he can pitch on back to back days without loss in velocity or command. I am not sure that can all be assessed in spring but as soon as they determine he is not a starter they need to be putting him in situations they expect him to see as a reliever.

For 2 million dollars you get a decline phase veteran reliever that was used in low leverage situations with poor performance outside of Petco park. Good set up men cost north of 5 million on the open market. Only the eyes of the Twins staff should be able able to gauge whether to be concerned on his performance earlier this week. There is good reason for anyone to be concerned that the Twins see him as a late inning reliever based on his performance outside of Petco and age. There could not have been many teams competing for his service this winter.

I hope the entire bullpen outside of Perkins are fighting for a job. I hope the Twins are willing to let Duensing and Stauffer go as soon as a younger player shows they are ready. If that is opening day, so much the better for the Twins.

Fien has a very high fly ball rate at 49%. He needs a strikeout rate closer to 30% or at least north of 25% to be effective with that fly ball rate. Unless he has a role where he comes in with no one on base, he is a disaster waiting to happen from the pen. His strikeout rate dropped from 29.9 to 19.6 last year and it wasn't just the end of the year. It was around 20 all year. He needs to be closer to his 2013 rate than his 2014 to be a useful reliever.

Framing would effect balls and strikes and therefore be considered defense independent. A pitcher's FIP and xFIP are based heavily on strike outs and walks so any change in those numbers due to framing would result in a pitcher's FIP or xFIP that didn't represent his true abilities. Framing has significant impact on those measures. Outfield defense would have no impact on xFIP and little on FIP unless there was some superman effort in stealing home runs therefore resulting in a lower than expected FIP.

There is little evidence the Twins value framing data or the skill and technique related to framing pitches. You only have to look at the signing of Doumit, the extending of Doumit, the signing of Suzuki and the extending of Suzuki as evidence. Pinto has been trained in the organization since 2006. Despite 9 years, he enters 2015 with very poor technique and skill particularly in the area of framing. He is still young enough to improve his skill, but it doesn't seem likely the Twins can help him. It is hard to have any confidence in the organization's ability to develop or even recognize a catcher's ability to frame pitches. Let's hope the other clubs are wrong and this skill has little effect on runs given up.

Spring training is meaningful. Jobs are won and lost as a result. They should be. Statistics from spring training exhibition games have no meaning. They should not be kept, reported or used in support of roster making decisions. I hope the Twins don't keep them or use them. Not only is the data in a sample too small to be meaningful but the level of competition varies. It is critical the Twins get the roster right though. They need to rely on the skill of the coaching staff and other staff in spring training to get the best 25. They need to be able to assess whether Milone, Pelfrey and Nolasco are healthy and throwing the ball like they did when they were more successful. Suzuki can help assess Milone also. They have to make the correct assessment on these three and have plenty of time and plenty of eyes to get it right. They need to assess whether Hicks has fundamentally changed his approach and possibly swing. They need to assess whether Schafer's numbers the last two months were result of a fundamental change or simply variation due to sample. Last year's staff should have seen a fundamental change in Kubel's bat speed. They should have seen Bartlett's inability to play outfield. They should have seen the need for Pinto to catch every day in the minors. They should have seen enough from Worley to retain him in AAA once he cleared waivers and was off the 40. The Twins can't afford to miss again this year. They need the skill to correctly assess the pitching and bring the best 12 north. They need to be right on Hicks and Pinto and put them in a role where they will best help the team win games. Spring training is critical to the Twins this year. Let's just hope they ignore the numbers and rely on their eyes. Let's hope the new Twins staff is more skilled than last year's staff. Spring training is meaningful. Spring training stats are not. Let's not use them.

Rosario has 649 plate appearances in AA in which he performed basically at league average. His slugging is slightly better and on base slightly worse. He did this while being much younger than the league. Combine that sample with a good AFL performance and it isn't stretching him to place him in AAA. He needs to be in AAA and if he dominates over 50 games, he needs to be in the Twins OF. Best case, he pushes Hunter to the bench because of his play combined with the emergence of Hicks and Arcia.

Harrison does need to be in AA. There don't need to be blocks at any position. Rosario and Sano need to be in AAA. At 25, Hicks is an organizational player. He can be 1B at any level that needs him. If 1B is Harrison's spot, put Hicks in A+ or AAA.