Jump to content
Our free agent ranking is up to 100 names, and now you can filter by player position! Click here to check it out! ×
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

jorgenswest

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    8,284

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    9

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I wouldn’t look at slash stat splits. They really need a large sample to be reliable. The natural variation of BABip and short term injuries highly influence that data. There may be reason to be concerned about Rosario but shifts in OPS by month do not make a path or a trend or a streak. It is most likely random variation due to sample while his skill level remained the same.
  2. jorgenswest
    Would the statcast coach probability numbers give us an idea about Rosario’s range independent of Buxton? The data goes back three years so we might see if there has been a decline since 2016.
  3. jorgenswest
    I don’t think Duffy will still be on the roster after they sign two or more pitchers. I still have some hope that he can be an effective reliever given his strikeout and walk rates as well as his curve ball. His career major league xFIP is 3.85. He has an option. I would bet on his career going forward over Slegers or Magill but if all are designated as a result of adding free agents I won’t object. Granite and Reed are position players in this same group on the fringe of the 40.
  4. jorgenswest
    Is this directed towards me for a reason? I am not sure how it fits either my few previous comments about Kirilloff or anything we need to know about the Cruz deal. Maybe you are advocating for Kirilloff to start in the majors opening day instead of signing Cruz. I can assure you I would never call a human a hack or trash or something from a dumpster.
  5. jorgenswest
    With Buxton in CF and likely good range on the other corner I think the Twins can survive some games with Cruz in the outfield.
  6. jorgenswest
    There will be one player removed now and hopefully at least two other spots as they sign pitchers. It doesn’t matter to me whether they remove an outfielder or pitcher today. I do care that this isn’t the last spot on the 40 they will need to clear.
  7. jorgenswest
    MLB.com These prospects drove the ball the best. Two Twin prospects make the list. https://www.mlb.com/news/10-prospects-who-drove-the-ball-best-in-2018/c-302274922
  8. jorgenswest
    I hope that Astudillo is getting real consideration for the starting catcher job.
  9. jorgenswest
    Editing my comment above... Willians Astudillo is an alternative that could match Sano’s defense and provide some offense at 3B.
  10. jorgenswest
    I am encouraged by both the reduction in strike out rate and increase in walk rate in 2018.
  11. jorgenswest
    Good list and they may all go as relievers are added. I would start with those that don’t have options. I think that is Reed and Magill.
  12. jorgenswest
    To project forward I think you would be better off capturing a bigger sample. Most would look back at least three years. There is too much variability in slash stats due to balls in play and injury. That natural variation makes it appear there is a trend when it is more likely that the skill level has not changed.
  13. jorgenswest
    Sano at 3B is critical to the Twins success this year. I don’t think there is an alternative in the organization that would be anything other than replacement level at 3B.
  14. jorgenswest
    Hrbek signed a 5 year extension following the 1984 season extending the team control. He would have become a free agent following the 1987 season after 6 years as a Twin. Kirilloff could be on a similar path relative to age.
  15. jorgenswest
    In any era the players that show the best hope of being successful rushed are going to demonstrate elite pitch recognition and management of the strike zone. The best we have in numbers is strike out and walk rates but that isn’t sufficient. Pitch recognition goes both ways. Players need to lay off pitches that are not in the strike zone. They also need to demonstrate that recognition of pitches that they should barrel up and attack those pitches. We only have traditional data to try to make that assessment about Hrbek. I would look for... - low strike out rates - high ISO (relative to league) - red flag with high walk rates. ISO isn’t great but the best thing we might have to evaluate barrels. I would be concerned about a very high walk rate particularly when the ISO isn’t also high relative to league. I think this is an indicator that the player is not recognizing pitches they should be attacking or are simply unable to barrel the ball up. Instead of an extra base hit they may fouls that good pitch off or take that pitch only to walk later in that at bat. Aaron Hicks needed more time to recognize pitches he should attack. I think a Hrbek fared well in all three. Of the current prospects I am very encouraged by Kirilloff’s ISO and strike out rates. He has 793 minor league plate appearances. Even the rushed Hrbek had 1008. Signing Cruz is not blocking Kirilloff. He needs more time but with another 300 plate appearances as solid as his first 793 I will join the group advocating for his arrival.
  16. jorgenswest
    I think the risk is only money. He will either be a reliable starter or not close to a number 5. If he has his velocity sign him and see if he can maintain it through the spring and into the season.
  17. jorgenswest
    Are these unique views? Are forum discussions and multiple returns to discuss the article (or often something unrelated) all counted as different views?
  18. jorgenswest
    How does it contradict the AL results from last year or the data that shows that Odorizzi’s 5 year numbers in the first inning are comparable to ace pitchers but his results in innings 4 to 6 are near the bottom of the group? Tell me where to look. I like this kind of work. I am happy to be contradicted.
  19. jorgenswest
    I would only add that it really isn’t the relievers themselves or their ability that is volatile year to year. The inherit sample of any reliever is too small to be reliable and it is the variablility of a small sample that drives the perception of volatility. This is important in our perception of Addison Reed. We see last year’s number and assume a drop off in skill but that may not be the case. We might have been seeing the 10th percentile results of a reliever his skill level.
  20. jorgenswest
    It would be more convincing if there were any data to support this claim particularly when the work has been done to post the AL only data related to inning earlier in the conversation. It was clearly true for the AL last year as posted by ERA earlier. There were more runs scored in the first inning in the AL last year than any other inning with about 200 runs scored in the first than the second or third innings. The difference is significant and not surprising since opposing pitchers are guaranteed to face the best hitters.
  21. jorgenswest
    Sano is very tough to project. I also think he is more likely than others on the list to find himself in trouble off the field which will impact his play or his status to play on the field.
  22. jorgenswest
    Opinion or based on projection models?
  23. jorgenswest
    Trades of an established position player for a top prospect pitcher in A-Ball are going to be own most often by the team acquiring the established player. When the team acquiring the prospect wins, they can win really big.
  24. jorgenswest
    Exploring typical a little further and using last 5 years data so that the data has stabilized. Odorizzi’s numbers in 2018 were consistent with his career. First inning ERA: Odorizzi ranks 5th of 77 behind Scherzer and Arrieta and ahead of Kluber and Sale Inning 2: 39th Inning 3: 26th Inning 4: 71st Innings 1-3: 18th (3.25) Innings 4-6: 66th (4.72) I don’t think that is typical of a 3-4 starter. Those are clear number 1s in the first group.
  25. jorgenswest
    I don’t think you wait on the HoF. They don’t have a clear borderline. The Twins have done a good job in selection. There is a pretty clear borderline (at least in terms of bWAR in a Twins uniform). Hrbek and Blyleven are the borderline. Knoblauch and Radke are just on the other side. Nathan is another territory for which the border has nor been defined.
×
×
  • Create New...