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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Rogers will start in bullpen http://m.mlb.com/news/article/168647328/twins-option-jr-graham-taylor-rogers
  2. jorgenswest
    Keeping Quentin for a time allows them to see if Park is ready.
  3. jorgenswest
    I like the depth in AAA. Kepler and Polanco can come up and start in several positions. Vargas can tear it up and force his way onto the roster. Catching as a whole has more depth with Murphy, Hicks and Centino replacing Herrmann and Fryer. Berrios and Duffey give depth and upside when a starter is needed and there are some strong arms very close to ready in the bullpen.
  4. jorgenswest
    I have serious questions about whether Nolasco's difference between FIP and ERA is based on 10 years of bad luck or rather his skill in pitching with runners on base. His career splits with runners on base are very different than with bases empty. Maybe he only has bad luck with runners on base or maybe it is a skill. If it is a skill, it is one that shows up in ERA and not FIP. In either case, the starting rotation is the spot. He is the last pitcher I want coming in with runners on base. I would suggest the Twins start him and give him a very short leash with runners on base innings 5 and later. Let's see how he does his first 8 starts. If he doesn't perform well, release him and go with Duffey or Berrios. If Nolasco can pitch as a mid rotation starter this year, it will go a long way toward a successful season.
  5. jorgenswest
    The best possible case for the Twins is Nolasco contributing in the starting rotation. His start today is very encouraging.
  6. jorgenswest
    Thanks for all of the reports.
  7. jorgenswest
    They can begin with Duffey starting in AAA. He will be needed. It is worth seeing if Nolasco can approach the pitcher he was with the Dodgers. Their rotation depth is a strength if they have Duffey ready and Nolasco has something left. The bullpen will sort itself out. The last spot is not going to shift the record. Giving it to Tonkin and having him pitch in a low leverage role might give him a chance to show he is a major leaguer before they expose him.
  8. jorgenswest
    Is there any concern that he won't stay healthy in the bullpen role. Mike Berardino wrote about it towards the end of last season.
  9. jorgenswest
    It has been the Twins practice to roster three catchers at times or roster two utility men for the bench. Those decisions have made it very difficult for a manager to use a platoon. Santana's versatility creates an opportunity to roster an extra corner player on the bench that might be used to platoon and pinch hit. Up the middle can be covered by Santana and Murphy and the other two spots could be bats.
  10. jorgenswest
    I am with you as long as results are not based on statistics from spring. Results must be based on the assessment of a skilled staff seeing the approach at the plate and on the mound. The assessment in work outs about the quality of pitches and the ability to defend in the field and recognize pitches at the plate.
  11. jorgenswest
    I don't care about the box score or any stats in spring. I do care about the approach he brings to the plate. In the at bat that happened to go for a double, he patiently looked at the first four pitches. The first two were balls. The third was a strike on the corner that a good hitter gives the pitcher as strike one. The fourth was a good curve ball below the zone that he was able to recognize and check his swing. Ahead 3-1 he made great contact on a good pitch to hit. Had he lined out to the left fielder instead of doubling, it would not have changed the major league approach he brought to that plate appearance.
  12. jorgenswest
    Mauer was underpaid the first half of his career and overpaid the second. In the end he will have been worth more to the Twins than they spent. The money is committed and they have to pay him. They don't need to roster him though. He should be expected to earn that spot based on his performance. If the Twins can improve the team by replacing him, they must do so.
  13. jorgenswest
    At some point before the contract runs out the Twins will have at least two better options at 1B/DH than Mauer. Even this year, Park, Arcia and Vargas have an OPS projection from steamer greater than Mauer's. All three have too many questions but if two are clearly better a some point this season or entering next, it will be time to move Mauer to the bench and eventually release him.
  14. jorgenswest
    Maybe Vargas should be in the bench bat discussion. I do see value in having him ready at AAA when needed for injury replacement. I also see value in utilizing his option and having him on the 25 man roster at times. Nunez, Santana and Arcia are out of options. If they are the bench, one will go when a 13th pitcher is needed. I also wonder if the Twins would consider moving Sano to 1B when a defensive replacement in RF might be used. It keeps his bat in the game and strengthens the defense in RF. Maybe he will be an adequate RF and it won't be necessary.
  15. jorgenswest
    It would take data from his last three seasons on the bench to reliably use his OPS. It is reasonable to question that his numbers last year represent his true skill level. Various projection systems suggest his skill level is closer to an OPS in the 670s or 680s. That would be very good for an average or lightly below defender at SS. Good enough to be a starter. Unfortunately I don't think many or any teams believe he has the glove to be a starting SS. On the Twins he would be their best right handed pinch hitter. If that is the role where he helps the Twins the most, the question becomes whether some other right handed batter might do a better job in that role.
  16. jorgenswest
    Jeff Sullivan wrote this during the 2013 season. "When a guy’s ERA doesn’t match his FIP for a year, usually we don’t mind it. We blame it on sequencing or coincidence. Two years, still, it can be noise. But between 2006-2012, Nolasco threw more than 1,100 innings, which is a pretty enormous sample size. There was reason to believe this was a serious problem." Several hundred innings later and the discrepancy between his performance and peripherals hasn't changed.
  17. jorgenswest
    I don't think the arbitration contract becomes guaranteed until the start of the season. Unless it has changed, teams would owe 30 or 45 days of pay. Neither contract should guarantee a spot because of arbitration. I don't know what is in the minds of the Twins front office, but offering arbitration to those two gives them some depth and security against spring training injury. It is still a good decision if the Twins leave spring healthy and either is beaten out for a job.
  18. jorgenswest
    The competition for the bench starts with Murphy, Santana, Nunez and Arcia. Quentin can take the spot of either Nunez or Arcia. If the Twins assess that Quentin right handed bat is a clear upgrade over Nunez, his presence on the bench might be more valuable. Nunez does not do anything defensively or in the running game that can't be covered by Santana. Polanco is in AAA if a middle infielder were injured. With Polanco the Twins don't need to carry two utility players. They aren't going to pinch hitting or subbing for 2B and 3B very often. Sweeney is more in competition with Santana and Arcia. Sweeney can play CF and bats left handed. Assuming a back up catcher which trio gives the Twins the most options from the bench? Santana, Nunez, Arcia Santana, Nunez, Quentin Santana, Arcia, Quentin Nunez, Sweeney, Arcia Nunez, Sweeney, Quentin The Twins had the worst pinch hitting in baseball last year. Maybe Quentin has enough left to turn that around.
  19. jorgenswest
    Mid market teams should not be in the practice of buying out the arbitration years of average players already in or close to their prime. They can afford the risk that the player will take a step forward and earn their reward in arbitration. It is far better to remain flexible and be able to move on from a player if they drop in performance either due to injury or early decline.
  20. jorgenswest
    Should Nunez be included in the article? I guess he used his last option in 2014 so he wouldn't fit the criteria. I don't think his Twin future should be anymore guaranteed than Arcia, Santana, Tonkin or Milone.
  21. jorgenswest
    ERA+ since 2012 (all pitchers well over 500 innings) Milone 99 Santana 96 Hughes 96 Nolasco 85 The various ERA estimators converge with ERA at 500 innings. ERA is meaningful at this sample.
  22. jorgenswest
    There is no reason to buy Gibson's 32 year old season. The Twins are not a small market team. They don't have to make deals to protect themselves a possible few million in arbitration. If Gibson pitches well, pay him what he has earned in arbitration. If not, be able to move on without being tied to a contract. We have enough low ceiling starting pitchers with multi year contracts.
  23. jorgenswest
    It would be typical of the Twins to extend a decline phase player based on a an outlier year or even half year performance. Suzuki, Doumit and Burton are recent examples. Let's hope they have learned from those contracts.
  24. jorgenswest
    As a minor leaguer he was always several years younger than league average. He didn't perform well with the bat in that context but his glove kept moving him forward. He was in AA by 21 and the majors by 22. It isn't unusual to both struggle with the bat and improve significantly under these conditions. We knew that when he was acquired but there was so much noise the other direction it went mostly unheard. His last two seasons were real. It may have been a ceiling but it is a ceiling that should hold through his team control with the Twins. Players with his skills are valuable to any roster.
  25. jorgenswest
    If you plan to tank don't you stick with Liam Hendricks for a long stretch as they did with Viola rather than sign Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey? Don't you give Pinto a long look rather than sign Suzuki to be a starter?
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