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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Like this. Polanco in LF seems more plausible than Sano in RF. I would think he can at least get close to the Robbie Grossman level of defense. He helps because Rosario, Kepler, Buxton and Santana all hit better against right handed pitching over their major league at bats. It doesn't need to be a strict platoon but it would help if Polanco took LF against a left handed pitcher for one of the starters and sitting or shifting Rosario to one of the two other spots.
  2. jorgenswest
    Players without significant contracts will get blocked. The return on others will not shift the franchise. If a team claims Plouffe or Suzuki with the intention of blocking (they don't offer a player in return), should the Twins let them go? What would be the point of keeping Plouffe in that case? His arbitration award will make him even more difficult to trade this winter. Taking him to arbitration almost certainly means he is on the 25 next year. If they don't plan on taking him to arbitration, why keep him in September? Play Sano, Polanco and Vargas more often. They can also let Suzuki go and give the time to Centeno and Murphy. Suzuki may be able to get a multiyear contract this winter. I hope it is not from the Twins.
  3. jorgenswest
    Logjams are good. Right? They certainly are preferred over what we have at catcher. Vargas looks to be a major league player. Not sure about Park. He can play in minors until Vargas gets a long shot or someone wants him. In 2018 Vargas and Sano might be the DH/1B combo with Mauer declining to an A-Rod role. In 2019 both will be on their primes with power and walks in the middle of the batting order. We need one more year at 3B with Sano.
  4. jorgenswest
    I wonder if Vargas' solid walk rates give him a better chance of more success as he grows into his prime. I think he has a more promising future than Park or Plouffe.
  5. jorgenswest
    Whether they use it or not it does give an exemplar of what 9 million dollars buys. To win this trade the Twins need to get more value out of the 9 million and Busenitz than the Angels get from Meyer and Nolasco's 2017.
  6. jorgenswest
    That 9 million buys a pitcher the level of Pelfrey in free agency. It is hard to imagine they can spend it on someone who will have more trade value than Santiago at the deadline next year.
  7. jorgenswest
    Looking forward to a good start from Santiago and a sweep of Cleveland. I doubt this trade does much to shift the future of the Twins, but I do have more interest in today's game.
  8. jorgenswest
    Home runs stabilize at around 1250 plate appearances. Splits, each in a smaller sample, might not be very informative. I would think that Santiago would have given up a greater number of home runs at home had the park over the last three years been Target Field. I did look at the partial home run data for 2016 and see that Angel Stadium was giving up home runs at a much greater rate than the three year stretch from 2013-2015 when they were among the most difficult places to hit home runs in the AL. I don't think they made stadium changes And it is a small sample of the partial season. In any case, Santiago's difficulty with home runs at home this year coincides with his increase in ERA.
  9. jorgenswest
    Angel Stadium was the perfect park for an extreme fly ball lefty like Santiago. Target Field may not be very friendly. Angel Stadium is one of the more difficult places for right handed batters to hit home runs. Saniago still gave up more home runs than any other pitcher last year. Right handed batters see an increase in home runs in Target Field. This combination could prove difficult for Santiago and his future value.
  10. jorgenswest
    I think I agree with both of you above. Is it fair to say the deal has little long term value to the Twins? There should be a 1 win bump next year if they use the 9 million wisely (either taking Santiago to arbitration or spending it in free agency). Is it also fair to say that the Angels have the better odds at long term upside? With that upside comes the greater likelihood that they will get less from Nolasco than Santiago next year and Meyer will never be healthy.
  11. jorgenswest
    I wonder if my understanding of the money is correct. The Twins are paying Nolasco for the remainder of the year. After that he is owed 13 million. Of the 13 million the Twins are paying 4 million. That leaves 9 million which will be close to what they spend on Santiago if they take him to arbitration. I don't see a savings for 2017 but I do see an upgrade of about 1 win if they retain Santiago. They also have the opportunity to deal Santiago as a rental. They can also non-tender and spend the money elsewhere but that amount isn't buying much more than a win. Since the cash is neutral, is the difference between Santiago and Nolasco to the Twins in 2017 worth more than the future difference of Meyer and Busenitz to the Angels? Unless a team views itself as a solid contender for 2017, wouldn't they be better off gambling on the future?
  12. jorgenswest
    Meyer was added to the 40 man roster following the 2014 season. The Twins send options in 2015 and 2016. He should have an option remaining. For 2017, the Twins appear to be the winners. Hopefully the Twins will have studied how the change in home parks will impact Santiago's performance. He led the league in home runs given up last year in a park that suppresses right handed home runs. Target Field will not be as friendly. For 2018 and beyond, the Angels win the trade if Meyer is a major leaguer. The Twins only hope is being able to move Santiago. I would gave preferred they cut loose Nolasco and kept Meyer, but it isn't a bad gamble that Santiago will retain his value into next July.
  13. jorgenswest
    Santiago has performed significantly better than his FIP over his career. The opposite is true of Nolasco. It comes down to performance with runners on base. Nolasco's performance drops with runners on base over his career. Santiago has actually pitched much better over his career with runners on base. Is it luck? Maybe. They both have significant PAs against over their careers. Target Field may not be kind to Santiago though. He led the league in home runs given up last year. He moves from Angel Stadium which suppresses home runs from right handed batters to Target Field where right handed batters hit home runs above the league average. I used 2013-2015 as the sample for the parks but Angel Stadium has been a more difficult place for right handers to hit home runs than Target Field each year since Target Field's opening in 2010.
  14. jorgenswest
    A good trade. I honestly trust took the best offer they had for Abad. This is the kind of deal losing teams need to make.
  15. jorgenswest
    The money is a wash. Busenitz is an organizational player. The Twins might project 1 win better with Santiago in 2017. Beyond that they are both gone. Meyer is the only player who has the possibility of making an impact for his current team in 2018. This is the kind of trade losing teams like the Angels should be making. If Meyer works out, they win big. If not, they lose the difference of Santiago vs Nolasco in 2017. The way the Twins win this trade is if Santiago has a fairly good half season next year and they are able to deal him before he hits free agency. It could happen but Angel stadium is a much more friendly pitchers park. It is possible but I don't think it is as likely as Meyer being a valuable reliever for the Angels.
  16. jorgenswest
    Mejia has 8 starts in AAA. He should get at least another 5 this year. With success and a good start next year in AAA, he hopefully can be ready early in the 2017 season. There is no magic number of starts, but significant learning happens in AAA.. Most prospects don't blow batters away with raw stuff and the mistakes they get away with in the minors are barreled up in the majors. The Twins need to have the patience to develop his talent and waiting some of April has the side benefit in an extra year of control.
  17. jorgenswest
    I think strategically Lucroy would list teams without a long term catcher and some possibility of contending. That would give him the best chance to leverage his no trade clause.
  18. jorgenswest
    He needs to be up for good no matter what he struggle. He has nothing to learn in AAA. I really think Duffey is in the same position. He has 46 starts in AA and AAA. He was very successful. He doesn't need more time in the minors. He needs time to work it out in the majors. Viola and Radke were very up and down their first 50-60 major league starts. The Twins can afford to let Duffey and Berrios work out their struggles at the major league level.
  19. jorgenswest
    McCann and Norris are still in the supply with Suzuki. I don't know if the demand is large enough. Suzuki's framing and throwing probably make him more difficult to deal to a team looking for a number 1 catcher. The offensive numbers are nice and over three years above average relative to catchers. I would take the best offer which might be a player closer to 500 than 100.
  20. jorgenswest
    With Norris and Lucroy in the market, will there be an offer for Suzuki? The demand for pitching will generate offers on Kintzler, Abad and Santana. They should take the best return offered on those three. I am not as sure the demand at catcher will generate an offer for Suzuki.
  21. jorgenswest
    Watch the third base coach. Not much of a stop sign.
  22. jorgenswest
    Additional data... Best Twins defensive infielder last 6 years from BBA. Polanco's ranking following 2010 season. 2011- Jorge Polanco 2012- Brian Dozier 2013- Levi Michael 2014- Danny Santana 2015- (can't find book) 2016- Engelb Vielma Not sure about 2015 but they must have liked Dozier, Michael and Santana better at shortstop than Polanco following the 2011-2013 seasons.
  23. jorgenswest
    I don't know why the Twins aren't playing him at SS, but if he can play that position I would replace every one starting involved in the decision starting with Brad Steil and the AAA and AA staffs that see him every day. He was Mientkiewivz's regular shortstop for 2 years. He must not have given good feedback to the organization about Polanco's ability to play SS. There are two possibilities and I tend to think that the Twins are correct on this one in their assessment. I haven't seen him play regularly and have no way of judging otherwise. If the Twins are wrong a lot of people need to be cleared out. You can't miss on a guy who could be a regular SS.
  24. jorgenswest
    Nolasco through his years of team control was a number 4 pitcher or better. That would be an incredible return for Nunez. Hopefully they will have learned that guys who are number 4s in their primes aren't very useful 32-35.
  25. jorgenswest
    I would agree that Dozier in the midst of his prime. At his age, two more seasons close to this year are reasonable. The market for 2Bs seems very limited. I don't think it is anyone's top priority. His bat wouldn't play as well at DH or a corner position. His value is at 2B and there needs to be a team that has a significant need to make a significant offer. Blue Jays? Travis is healthy. Cardinals? They have Carpenter, Diaz, Peralta and Gyorko (as well Wong) under contract next year. With two injuries they have a short term need. They would seek a short term cheaper solution. Pirates? They have committed to Harrison for years with Mercer, Kang and Rodriguez. I don't see the market.
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