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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I would be concerned about Wade's ability to hit with hard contact as shown by his ISO. As compared to Grossman's time in AA it is much lower. The Twins have much better data to look at for barrels and hard contact. Maybe most of his hard contact is directly at fielders and his low ISO is a poor indicator. He won't walk in the majors if he doesn't hit the ball with some authority. Major league pitchers will pitch to his weaker contact and his walk rate will drop considerably. While he is in AA, he needs to be more aggressive attacking pitches that he can drive. Without recognition of pitches that he can drive, it will be hard to be successful in the majors.
  2. jorgenswest
    Over his last 8 starts, he has performed close to his projections coming into the season. He has thrown 54 innings with a ERA of 4.00. Those almost 7 innings a game at 4.00 are pretty useful to a team. I think it is reasonably close to what the Twins (or any team considering a trade) should expect for the remainder of the season.
  3. jorgenswest
    I have no clue which direction they should go. I do trust their process as shared on inside twins though.
  4. jorgenswest
    Another honest question for a mid market team. If you sign a college guy, wouldn't you likely have them through age 29-30 and a good portion of their prime. Sign a high school guy who might come up at 20-21 and you have them until 27-28 losing a few years of their prime. Is it a consideration?
  5. jorgenswest
    I would take the player with the highest upside. I don't know who that would be but the only way the mid market Twins acquire a superstar is the draft them or sign them internationally. They shouldn't go with the safe pick. Is there consensus on the player with the best upside?
  6. jorgenswest
    Watched and wrote about his start in the draft thread. 122 pitches. Two bad innings. Manager should never have allowed him to pitch disastrous 7th inning. He was nearing 100 pitches and velocity was down a tick in the 6th. If a single performance could hurt his draft stock, this was it.
  7. jorgenswest
    Absolutely. It has been lack of command and not lack of third pitch that has held him back.
  8. jorgenswest
    From 2008-2013 Ervin lived on fastball and slider throwing that combo more than 90% of the time. Command is far more important than a third pitch and last night Ervin had tremendous command.
  9. jorgenswest
    The "can't be a starter if they have two pitches" thing is a myth. Plenty of starting pitchers have been successful using two pitches 90% of the time. It is far more important to have command of both rather than have an adequate third pitch.
  10. jorgenswest
    I am not looking at the data but my impression from watching Gibson is that he is getting strike one much more often than earlier in the season. If he gets the first strike, the curve ball has a chance to be more effective. Batter's can't let it go and sit on the fastball like they can when they are ahead in the count. So I wonder... Is he getting the first strike more often? Is he getting ahead with the fastball? Has his curve ball been more effective? I am hoping that someone can point to a pitch sequencing change since his return. If that is the case, there might be reason to hope that he can be a useful number 4/5 starter.
  11. jorgenswest
    I wondered the same thing. No. http://www.truebluela.com/2017/6/2/15734048/dodgers-obtain-jason-wheeler-twins-cash-considerations-rob-segedin
  12. jorgenswest
    Thanks. Helpful. Another honest question. I have not seen any of the potential selections pitch. Shouldn't there be more concern about his first part of his season? At a small sample of 6 weeks, the difference is much more likely to be random variation rather than a change in skill level. Is it possible the last 6 weeks represent an outlier of his skill set? Could selecting him be like buying high in a trade?
  13. jorgenswest
    It seems likely me Strasburg, Price and maybe Cole were much clearer number 1 picks. How does the scouting on Wright compare to those three? Appel, Hochevar and Burlington were also college pitchers picked first overall recently. How does Wright compare to that trio?
  14. jorgenswest
    Are there other teams interested in Dyson? Rangers won't get much in return. I would guess they would move him to a team that isn't going to compete with them for the wild card. NL clubs or a team that is off to a poor start might the direction. The last thing the Rangers need is for Dyson to pitch well for a team competing for the wild card.
  15. jorgenswest
    No reason to expect Breslow or rest of the bullpen to have anything after yesterday. Why make the moves if you aren't going to use the fresh arms to protect a 5 run lead?
  16. jorgenswest
    It sure sounds as if they were waiting for him to repeat something mechanically with consistency. I believe I last heard Falvey reference it is the Inside Twins show. While no one would know how he was going to fare, they would be able to assess whether he was consistent with the mechanics they were trying to establish. I think that is the "readiness" they were seeking.
  17. jorgenswest
    Changing the catching was the only real move this front office made as they take over. They chose Castro and Giminez knowing they wouldn't hit much. They must believe the value they bring to roster contributes significantly to preventing runs. I find myself agreeing with them though this skill is very complex to measure. Some of the pieces can be measured over the long term. If you don't support Falvey and Levine's only fundamental roster decision, it is hard to imagine that you would support their continued role leading the Twins front office.
  18. jorgenswest
    Mientkiewicz and his staff saw a lot of Polanco at SS. Their input should have had significant weight in the decision to play him at 2B exclusively in AAA last year. Let's hope the assessment of that staff was wrong. Any implication that someone outside the organization might influence that decision is inconceivable. Let's also hope that they still are heavily invested in Gordon at SS. The future of the middle infield is Gordon and Polanco.
  19. jorgenswest
    Short of an injury, the front office should stick with the roster they determined twas the best to begin the season. They could not have learned anything new in 9 days. They shouldn't react to a 8 game sample. It would not have been my 25, but I want a front office that makes a reasoned decision followed by patience in the short term.
  20. jorgenswest
    I am having a hard time wrapping my head around the statcorner data from this series. Is it possible that 32.2% of called pitches in the strike zone were called balls with Perez as catcher? The number was 21.7% for Castro. I wonder what the scouting report on those umpires must look like. Don't swing at anything on the edges has to be a key emphasis. The Twins did a good job of staying patient. Patience in the next series may result in more pitches in the zone being called strikes and adjustment will be critical.
  21. jorgenswest
    Thanks Seth. You always remind us of the tremendous work and commitment of those aspiring to play in the majors. I am curious about players that are in extended spring training or released.
  22. jorgenswest
    Spring training stats are useless in projecting who will perform well in April. They shouldn't be kept or considered in roster decisions short of any pitch level data collected on velocity, location and spin rate. That doesn't mean spring training is meaningless. The thoughts and observations of a skilled staff interacting with players in work outs and games has significant meaning.
  23. jorgenswest
    Do we see any evidence that roster construction is different with the new leadership? Has there been any impact on the roster?
  24. jorgenswest
    In support of riverbrian's statement, 177 pitchers started at least 1 game in April last year. That is 27 pitchers beyond an opening day starting rotation.
  25. jorgenswest
    I would take a Nolasco at 26 through his prime. I wouldn't give up on a career xFIP- of 91 through age 25. I certainly wouldn't shut down his starting career. If the Twins front office believes his ERA represents his true ability better than his peripherals I would be very disappointed.
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