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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Hill going to Red Sox. Reyes with Mets. Two teams found an infielder at no or little prospect cost. Gourriel still available. How much demand will there be for Dozier, Plouffe or Nunez? Is there a supply of other players like Hill with a low cost of acquisition?
  2. jorgenswest
    If the Twins are reasonably certain he can continue to perform as a number 4 starter over the next two years, they need to keep him. If they look at a large group of similarly aged and performing pitchers, I think that they will find that far less than 1/2 of those pitchers can continue as a number 4 as the progress into their age 34 and 35 seasons. The Twins would need to see something special in Santana that would suggest that he will decline at a slower rate than typical and avoid injury more common with older pitchers.
  3. jorgenswest
    Fair enough. If Arcia returns a player or Jepsen gives salary relief, isn't that what we are hoping to get from the likes of Nolasco or Plouffe? I would put Santana in the salary relief group also. They might not count either. In that case, the Twins have very few veteran players worthy of a return. Everyone should go under on th number.
  4. jorgenswest
    Is the trade counter already at 2? Arcia and Jepsen were part of the opening day roster. Arcia has been moved. Jepsen is yet to be resolved. The return is minimal but similar to what we might expect from Nolasco or Plouffe. Space is cleared on the roster.
  5. jorgenswest
    Kintzler might be of some interest.
  6. jorgenswest
    I may be misunderstanding the "should've" since they were exiting their primes. In no way should the Twins have expected 12-12 records with 4.14 ERAs from Nolasco and Santana. At best, they should have hoped for 2 or 3 seasons between the two of them out of the 8 at that level. I think the performance they have received is much more typical of similar pitchers in their ages 32-35 seasons. They are getting what they paid for. Hughes was in his prime and the Twins locked him up throughout his prime years. They were fools to extend him after a single good season. He would have been off the books after this year looking for a minor league deal. It is signings like these that continue the cycle of mediocrity.
  7. jorgenswest
    Good work John and Thrylos. Thanks.
  8. jorgenswest
    Pitchers are going to decline ages 32-35. They are going to be injured more frequently. A player needs to be very good entering those ages to return in a good performance in that span. If you are league average ages 26-31, there is a good chance you won't be very useful by age 35. The performance and health that the Twins are getting from Santana, Nolasco and Hughes is well within what should have been expected. Terry Ryan is 100% responsible for those decisions. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6349-what-can-the-twins-expect-from-santana-and-nolasco/
  9. jorgenswest
    The next time Berrios and Chargois come up needs to be the last time. Once up, they need to let the work out any struggles at the major league level. Once they are confident there is nothing else to learn at AAA, bring them up. I don't think we can assess that readiness with a stat line though.
  10. jorgenswest
    They have an opportunity to do that in rehab.
  11. jorgenswest
    If no one in the league equates playing SS and 3B poorly with defensive versatility and the best offer is a C/C+ prospect with a rule 5 decision coming up, do you take the best offer? The Mets gave up a C+ prospect and a prospect outside the top 20 for Juan Uribe (and Kelly Johnson) last year. John Gant was up for rule 5. He was recently called up to the majors. At the time Sickels wrote that he was a innings eating 5th starter type. The other player, Whalen, had a better ceiling but also a likelihood of a back end starter or bullpen arm. Uribe is an excellent defensive 3B and was hitting well. I would think his overall game has more value in helping a team reach the playoffs. Kelly Johnson had an OPS of .772 at the time of the trade. Both guys were key players for the Mets in the second half. Their return was good but not the level many on this site are hoping for Nunez. The Twins might expect one of those two for Nunez. Do you trade Nunez for a guy who projects to be a back end starter with the need to be put on the 40 in the winter?
  12. jorgenswest
    Rosario hurt the team in the field this year with several balls he misjudged into extra base hits and poor decisions on throws and cut offs. It is partly the aggressive nature he brings to every aspect of his game. It is also something that can get better with time and commitment.
  13. jorgenswest
    Keep playing Buxton. They should have kept him in AAA, but once they brought hi they need to stick with him. Rosario in the same sample as Buxton is doing well in AAA. The can't make decisions based in that sample. If they want to add Rosario into the LF mix with Grossman that's OK. It could be an odd platoon based on plate discipline and opposing pitcher. He is up instead of a 13th pitcher and not Buxton.
  14. jorgenswest
    ZIPS projection of 106 wRC+ for Dozier is a match for his performance at the moment. That performance is slightly above the typical performance at 2B. The Twins need more of these guys. Not less. Any trade needs to bring a valuable piece to the 2017 team.
  15. jorgenswest
    Gourriel and Valencia might need to go first before teams look to Plouffe or Nunez. Escobar and Solarte are probably also available and might be better fits. The Royals value defense do it is hard to see them taking Nunez. I don't think they would equate versatility with having played several positions poorly. They probably have a better solution in Cuthbert than Plouffe or Nunez. The Indians have some flexibility. They can put Jose Ramirez at 3B. The supply might be greater than the demand. The best option could be to keep Nunez for 2017.
  16. jorgenswest
    Buxton struggles with plate discipline in the majors and then dominates AAA in 129 PAs. He returns to the majors and struggles with plate discipline. Maybe it wasn't enough time in AAA. Solution - call up Rosario and his 126 PAs dominating AAA.
  17. jorgenswest
    Oscar Hernandez might be a closer example then. Cabrera was 21 In low A. Young prospects at low levels need to be protected. Though they are years from being successful, teams can't risk losing the upside. Better to lose a Gilmartin.
  18. jorgenswest
    I assume success means that the player was lost to the organization. Rule 5 guys often spend their second year with the acquiring club in the minors. They still have options. For example Oscar Hernandez was taken by Arizona a year ago. He played as a 20 year old in A-Ball with Tampa Bay.. He spent last year at the end of the bench and is now in high A with Arizona doing well.
  19. jorgenswest
    Everth Cabrera
  20. jorgenswest
    Johan Santana
  21. jorgenswest
    I am not as certain about Rosario. He has three extremes that will makes it difficult. He swings and misses at an extreme rate. The leader in that category is often a power hitter which isn't Rosario. He swings at pitches out of the zone at an extreme rate. That can work if your out of zone contact rate is also high. Unfortunately Rosario contact rate out of the zone is below average. It is not just out of the zone but his swing rate in general is extreme. He doesn't match that with an extreme contact rate. It is possible to be successful swinging aggressively but players need to match that with high contact rates. No hitter is going to be successful long term if they swing at a higher rate of pitches than anyone else with a swing and miss rate also amongst the leaders. The AAA slash stats tell us little about his progress. My guess is that AAA pitchers aren't as deceptive and his contact rate is up. I am hoping that he has improved his plate discipline but there is nothing in the slash stats that would show that improvement.
  22. jorgenswest
    I think it is about pitch recognition. The players above were not given the time in AA/AAA to develop that skill. Even in Hicks' case, he came up not recognizing a pitch to attack. Others were stacking pitches they shouldn't. It is the same skill and the Twins didn't have the patience or plan that allowed them to develop it.
  23. jorgenswest
    Through age 25, Ortiz and Arcia had very similar offense relative to the league with an OPS+ of 103 and 101 respectively. Through age 24, Arcia had the edge. A difference is the opportunity Ortiz was given in his age 25 season by Kelly.
  24. jorgenswest
    In Paredes case, the Phillies made the trade to circumvent an anticipated waiver claim according to MLBTR. A team may do the same in acquiring Arcia. The best return is likely cash. If no trade occurs, there is very little interest.
  25. jorgenswest
    I think any trade will involve cash considerations in return. The only hope is that someone puts in a claim forcing a team with a lower priority to make a trade. It will likely mean a little more cash like the Paredes deal after being DFA'd. Extra cash doesn't help much closing out ball games. Federowicz is interesting. For some reason the Red Sox, Dodgers, Padres and Cubs have all had him in their organizations without giving him a significant shot at the majors. The bar is pretty low for the Twins. He might get more opportunity.
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