jorgenswest

The starter with the best xFIP and SIERA was Tyler Duffey last year. Both have a higher correlation to future ERA than ERA. His xFIP+ was 8% better than league. The disparity between the two was huge. He had the perfect storm of a bad defense, abnormally high HR/FB rate and a significant drop in DP rate compared to 2015. I would plan to have Duffey in the rotation entering spring. The Twins can't afford to miss on any young starter. Duffey, May and Berrios are critical to the Twins short and long term future.

How is his data more trustworthy than that of Dozier, Santana or Plouffe? I see in the data 200 games at 2B in the minors and almost exclusive play at 2B by his winter ball coaches. It would have to be extreme incompetence on the part of the Twins to play his that often at 2B that often if they thought he had a shot to be a decent SS. It is critical teams keep players as far to the right of the defensive spectrum as long as possible. I am curious what you see in the data that gives you more confidence in his ability to be decent than the three players above who couldn't make it. All three played SS a much greater rate of time in the minors.

I suppose the same could be said about Plouffe, Nishioka and Dozier as they started playing shortstop for the Twins. There were people who questioned their ability to play decent defense at SS in the majors. Perhaps they were unreasonable. The Twins did seems to have more confidence in Plouffe and Dozier at the time they arrived given they had stayed at SS through the minors. The Twins moved Polanco away from shortstop a few times including the start of 2016. Reports of his struggle with defense have been around since he hit high A. I think there is a good chance his defense won't approach my understanding of decent (not in the bottom quartile). Call me unreasonable.

Groundball pitchers Duffey and Gibson will benefit most from Adrianza. Duffey had the best xFIP and SIERA among their starters last year and he seems the getting little consideration for the rotation. He mixed an extremely high HR/FB rate and a significant drop in double play rate last year driving a huge disparity between ERA and xFIP. The HR rate will regress and Adrianza should help considerably. I could be wrong about whether the Twins view him as a starter but I hope his xFIP- of 92 offers them some hope that his ERA was driven by both very poor luck and very poor defense. They should be counting on him for the rotation.

Izturis had 7 seasons as the primary SS with more than 100 starts in seasons between ages 22 and 30. The two years he fell short of 100 he bounced between two teams. He never really was a utilityman. His glove was good enough to be a starting SS for most seasons through his prime. If Adrianza's glove is the level of Izturis, he might be the Twins best option at SS. If not, he is AAA depth.

Light or Belisle? I would take a Belisle. His veteran presence should be valuable. Light has limited upside. Park or Adrianza? Park has the upside, but if they can pass Adrianza through waivers he adds an excellent glove at SS in AAA. Adrianza is not a good fit in a utility role. His value is all in his glove at SS. He either hits enough to start at SS or bounces around. My guess is They DFA him when they sign a veteran hoping he passes through to AAA. They might already have that deal with a veteran and needed to time his signing first. It could be a veteran bat to go with Belisle with the additional depth of Adrianza in AAA at the possible cost of Park and Light.

I am not talking about an emergency catcher though Gimenez did play some 1B and 3B last year. He also has played OF. That isn't my vision of an emergency catcher but rather and emergency corner player. Our new GM came from an organization that valued catching enough to put 3 catchers on the ALDS roster. Is it possible that he would do the same with the Twins roster this year? Is there some value a veteran catcher like Gimenez brings on the bench and in the bullpen that exceeds the value of a guy like Santana, a bench bat or a 13th pitcher?

Any chance the Twins carry 3 catchers? The Indians made news carrying 3 catchers on the roster in the ALDS (Perez, Gomes, Gimenez). Falvey and Levine know Gimenez well. I would not be surprised if he were the number 2 or 3 catcher on the roster. I have no way to value his presence on the bench but he must bring something unmeasured to the game that keeps him employed. If he is on the roster as the 25th man, I will trust that Falvey's sees value that is not measured well by the metrics we have available.

Belisle hasn't been able to stay healthy the last two years pitching about a season worth of innings in the last two. I wonder if he had other major league contract offers. He went to the Nationals on a minor contract last year. I don't see a pitcher the Twins should be counting on in high leverage situations. On the other hand, he could be a good veteran for the young relievers to learn from in the pen. It sounded like Falvey and Levine were looking for that quality from a veteran. Hopefully he stays healthy and post another ERA significantly lower than his peripherals while being a leader in the pen.

They could lose the guy they drop off the 40. It is possible that the guy they drop has a better career moving forward than one year of Matt Belisle. If they lose a player and Belisle pitches at a mediocre level, did they make a mistake? Edit: If they drop Tonkin, he had essentially the same xFIP in the context of the American League and essentially the same Steamer projection (also in the AL context).

Any similarities to Tim Stauffer?

Twins who have received the same recognition as best defensive infielder from 2006-2014. All were shortstops at the time. Trevor Plouffe, Alexi Casilla, Deibinson Romero, Matt Tolbert, Jorge Polanco, Brian Dozier, Levi Michael, Danny Santana I think it is more telling that Dozier, Michael and Santana were seen as better defensive infielders at shortstop over Polanco 2012-2014. Edit: Romero was a 3B when recognized

I would sign any but Drew to a one year deal. I don't think Drew can play middle infield any longer and he has little value to this team as a bench bat occasional 3B. The others can all be flipped by mid season or released if they can't play anymore.

They can go ahead and play Polanco at SS but they shouldn't do so thinking he will turn a corner at the position. That would be foolish. They have had him in the organization since he was 16. They have seen him at the position. A major league ground ball or throw from the hole or feed for a double play isn't that different from those in the minors. It would be like thinking that Pinto was going to become a good catcher or Plouffe a good SS in the majors after seeing them struggle for years in the minors. Polanco needs to have his bat in the line up regularly. He needs major league at bats. Right now it looks like the best option is to acknowledge that his play will cost them runs defensively and play him at SS until Dozier is moved. Meanwhile they can balance it with improved defense at catcher and the outfield. Last year they opened with Arcia and Sano on the corners and Suzuki at catcher. That was a disaster.

Castro is a good choice offensively but there may be some value in pairing catchers with a pitcher. Are there pitchers that benefit more from framing? Will the younger pitchers have a greater need for an experienced catcher? Catchers may platoon but it is not obviously clear that it should be based on the opposing pitcher. It might make more sense to platoon by Twin pitcher. Mauer, Park and Vargas also represent a possibility. There is no way to know when scouting by stat line whether Vargas has an advantage one way or the other though. He does not have enough career major league plate appearances against either side to answer the question. While his major league slash stats look good against lefties the sample is so small it should be ignored. It also conflicts with his minor league data where his slash stats have been better against right handed pitching. Park's record, unless there is something from Korea that should be trusted, has less. Mauer playing less would be helpful but it might be better if he is the bench guy getting starts against right handed pitching rather than the starter sitting only against lefties. Hopefully Kepler develops into a solid hitter that does well against both sides of the platoon. That can't happen unless he sees enough left handed pitching.

Duffey's WAR was good because the FIP was good relative to the Twins. His xFIP was also relatively good. Unfortunately, the exit velocity of balls in play wasn't very good. Hughes and Jepsen were worse among Twins when looking at fly ball line drive exit velocity. I wouldn't be surprised if we learn that exit velocity is a "skill" and there is a correlation year to year. More data is needed before that happens. If it does, the varied ERA estimators will go by the wayside as exit velocity becomes a variable in those calculations.

I was interested in whether most similar players continued to hit well. They did. I don't think he has the value of a 40+ HR hitter today and I don't believe that will be his value in the summer. According to the market his value appears to be a Jose De Leon. The chances are reasonable that his value remains at that level into July. It is a risk. He could be injured. Fly ball/pull hitters tend to fluctuate more in the small sample of a partial season. If the Twins are trying to squeeze out a few moderate prospects, it might not be worth it. They should take De Leon. If they are trying to get a second top prospect and can't this winter, it is possible the demand will be greater in July.

I think there is a reasonable chance (~30%) that Gibson has a better ERA than Santana next year. He was better in 2015, their xFIPs were 0.29 apart last year and I think Castro will have more influence on Gibson's performance. It is likely Santana will move towards his xFIP and possible Gibson towards his 2015 line. Santana still should have the edge as he will go deeper in games and pitch more innings but their projections will probably be close.

I don't think teams are valuing Dozier at his 2016 performance level this winter. They would be foolish to do so. I think they seem him with an OPS in the higher 700s. I think he will perform in that range next year.

The Dodgers don't need to offer the Twins an equivalent return. It just needs to be better than any other club is willing to offer. They don't need to outbid themselves. They know the Twins need pitching long term and Dozier is controlled for the short term.

One of the questions the Twins must be asking is whether Brian Dozier will retain his value. We have seen his streakiness in season, but season to season he has been pretty reliable. I do wonder if hitters with his characteristics (pull hitters, fly ball hitters, relatively high ISO, right handed) tend to be more streaky within season. On the other hand, slash stats don't stabilize short of a full season and really aren't very meaningful in splits. We shouldn't expect them to be reliable by the month or half season. I looked for a comp group with a similar age 26-29 seasons centered on Dozier while trending up at age 29. Searching for right handed hitters with a similar OPS+ and ISO, I found 30 hitters since 1991 with a 4 year OPS+ of 115 and ISO of .215 (Dozier is 114/.208). There were 31 in the age 29 group with an OPS+ of 139 and ISO of .251 (Dozier was 136/.278) The overlap group includes Andruw Jones Brian Dozier Chris Carter Corey Hart Dan Uggla Dean Palmer Ian Kinsler Kevin Youkilis Mike Lowell Pat Burrell Paul Konerko Rich Aurilia Todd Frazier Troy Glaus Vinny Castilla Yoenis Cespedes Chris Carter is the same age as Dozier. Carter and Jones aren't great positional fits in opposite directions. My interest is whether Dozier will continue to hit though. This group of healthy regulars maintained their heath for the most part ages 30 and 31. Only Hart lost a season (31) due to injury. Six of the twelve age 30 seasons made the all star team. The median OPS+ was 127. A drop from the age 29 season but better than the career number. It isn't surprising that it was a drop from age 29 since I looked for players that trended up. That group did not regress very much. Only one player Glaus did not play a full season at age 30 but even he had 456 plate appearances. Jones and Kinsler had an OPS+ below 100 and only Jones had a bad season at the plate. There was a drop at age 31. Jones and Hart were injured. The median OPS+ was 107.5 (without Hart). This group is dropping off. Dozier is probably not a good extension candidate. The discussion needs to be centered around dealing him now, dealing him later or keeping him through age 31. I do wonder if this type of hitter declines earlier than typical but I don't expect that decline to begin next year. Holding onto Dozier for a year seems a reasonable gamble. The Twins don't need to trade him for fear that he will fall apart next year. It could happen. It could also happen that the players they get in return fall apart. That is why they must get more than one significant prospect or wait until they see that offer.

Neal wrote "The Twins have been pushing for De Leon plus another prospect, but the Dodgers haven’t blinked." MLBTR interpreted "Neal suggests that the sticking point between the Twins and the Dodgers, who have long been the clear primary suitor for Dozier, has been that Los Angeles is seeking a straight up, one-for-one swap of Dozier and top pitching prospect Jose De Leon." It isn't clear whether non-prospect minor league filler types have been offered. Does that even matter? I think it is fair to read Neal's article as the Dodgers have offered no other prospects in the deal. MLBTR's statement is a little stronger with the one-for-one but the only real difference might be AAAA types that have little chance to have any major league impact. I don't get how the front office would pass up De Leon and Alvarez. I do get how they would pass up just one of them. My heart wants to trust Dave's source but I have to balance that against the reporting of a veteran reporter respected in the industry and former president of the BBWAA.

If DeLeon and Alvarez are on the table and the Twins management doesn't take the deal we need Terry Ryan back.

There are all kinds of questions surrounding whether the Twins should trade Santana. The market is a huge factor. Is it better to keep him given the limited options in or outside the organization? Is it better to trade him given the demand and supply? Will the demand be greater in July? My interest is exploring the likelihood that he will continue to be a valuable pitcher for the next three seasons that the Twins can control. I looked for a similar group of pitchers with a healthy track record and solid age 33 season as well as providing league average performance age 29-33. I used this criteria Pitchers pitched at least 750 innings in the 5 seasons age 29-33 Pitchers that had an ERA+ centered around 102 for those 5 seasons Pitchers with a good age 33 season and an ERA+ of better than league average Pitchers since 1990 and the change in bullpen usage Note- ERA+ is a searchable tool in play index. The various ERA estimators relative to league are not. At 750 innings, ERA+ will do as well as the others. It isn't as good for the age 33 season but looking at group data will give a good sample. I pulled two groups from B-R's play index. The first group was the age 29-33 group. I found a group of 66 pitchers centered at an ERA+. The second group was age 33 pitchers with a good full season at that age. I found 64 pitchers in that group. After finding the intersection of the two groups I ended up with 23 pitchers. One is Santana of course. Two others were also 33 in 2016 in J.A. Happ and Jason Hammel. This is the remaining group of 20 pitchers. Radke is in the group though he retired after age 33 due to a shoulder injury. Removing him would be cherry picking but you might consider it a group of 19. Ken Hill Pete Harnisch Kevin Gross Woody Williams Ted Lilly Brad Radke Shane Reynolds Tim Belcher Ervin Santana Jason Hammel Miguel Batista Bobby Witt Dave Burba J.A. Happ Jake Peavy Bronson Arroyo Kevin Appier Kyle Lohse Steve Trachsel Todd Stottlemyre Doug Davis Esteban Loaiza Hideo Nomo At age 33, the group had an ERA+ range of 100 to 144. Santana was 124. Comparing Santana against the median median 12-10, 195 IP, 189 H, 60 BB, 143 K, 3.83 ERA Santana 7-11, 181.1IP, 168 H, 53 BB, 149 K, 3.38 ERA The context of offense and strikeouts was a little different in 2016 than the earlier part of the chosen era but it seemed a fair comparison group. The 5 year group had an ERA+ range of 97-111, Santana was 101. median 152-144, 896.2, 862, 309, 661, 4.12 Santana 140-140, 874.1, 820, 264, 704, 3.91 So how did this group perform at ages 34 through 36? Age 34 There were some outstanding age 34 seasons. Nomo had Belcher had excellent seasons. 10 of 20 pitchers had an ERA+ of 100 or better. 9 of 20 pitchers threw at least 150 innings (Batista was a closer) so 10 in 20 were healthy full season. Peavy and Stottlemyre had good seasons while not injured in 19 and 17 starts. 2615.1 innings from the group As a group, the median ERA+ was 95.5 (100.7 ERA+ weighted by innings pitched) Age 35 Woody Williams was outstanding in his 17 starts while healthy 5 of 20 pitchers had an ERA+ of 100 or better. 8 of 20 pitchers threw at least 150 innings. Additionally Williams was very valuable in his 17 starts 2403 innings from the group As a group the median ERA+ was 86 (93.6 ERA+ weighted by innings pitched) Age 36 (19 in this group. Peavy is 36 this year) Tim Belcher had a very good season with 34 starts and an ERA+ of 111 6 of 19 pitchers had an ERA+ of 100 or better though 2 of those seasons were less than 50 innings 5 of 19 pitchers threw at least 150 innings 1426.1 innings from the group As a group, the median ERA+ was 75.5 (96 weighted by innings pitched) Innings as a group 33: 3786 34: 2615.1 35: 2403 36: 1426.1 This started as a group of 20 pitchers that had been healthy ages 29-33 while pitching well at age 33. In spite of their health, injuries were a factor age 34 to 36. Even at age 34 only 10 of the 20 provided full seasons. There is a reason to be optimistic about 2017 for Santana. Those that stayed healthy maintained their solid performance. Twelve of 20 made solid contributions. There is also a reason to be a little optimistic through 2019. The ERA+ weighted by innings shows a near league average performance which isn't easy to acquire and rare among Twin pitchers since 2011. There is also reason for concern. The innings drop off from the group of healthy pitchers is significant. Ervin Santana is a very good pitcher and valuable to any team. He could well perform as a number 2 starter again next year. There is a reasonable chance that he will be a solid pitcher the next three seasons. Perhaps a better chance than Donald Trump winning the election. Should Santana's age be a factor in the Twins decision on whether to trade him? Is there some reason to believe that there is something different about Santana compared to this group of pitchers who were also reasonable healthy through age 33? Pitching is difficult enough to acquire that they might be better off gambling on Santana staying healthy. Those that stayed healthy performed reasonably well through age 36. The Twins could trade Santana for a young prospect, but there is no guarantee that prospect will remain healthy. After looking at this group, I think I might gamble on Santana.

I think the difference between FIP and xFIP is home run rate (which requires a large sample) and fly ball rate (smaller sample). The difference between the two does become meaningless by 500 innings pitched.