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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Where are the late inning relievers supposed to come from?
  2. jorgenswest
    Detroit is wise to set the bar high for their better pieces this far from the deadline. There are more buyers for relievers of Greene’s tier than sellers.
  3. jorgenswest
    For some reason I care about this... I found three other Twins games this year in which the starter did not go 5 but left while leading. One was a Twins home game. Perez followed Pineda in an early season game. Perez gave up the only 3 runs the Twins allowed and was awarded the win. Harper pitched a scoreless inning but I guess was somehow determined less effective than Perez. Pineda was the most effective pitcher this day but the scorer couldn’t choose him. In an away game Hildenberger pitched 1/3 of an inning to finish the fifth for Gibson. He was awarded the win for his 1/3 inning. May pitched a scoreless full inning but I guess was deemed less effective than Hildenberger. In an away game Duffey finished the fifth for Berrios and had a clean 6th inning. This was the game that Austin Adams blew hitters away for 2 innings striking out 4 though he must have been less effective than Duffey who was credited with the win. In every case the reliever completing the 5th inning was awarded the win. In each of these cases I think there is a lot clearer argument that another pitcher was more effective. Thorpe and Duffey were critical to yesterday’s win. Unless it is so clear that Thorpe was much more effective Duffey should have had that win.
  4. jorgenswest
    If Harper came in and gave up a run changing Thorpe’s line to two earned runs but not changing his effectiveness would you still award him the win over Duffey?
  5. jorgenswest
    Thanks. So the scorer chose the reliever third in WPA. According to box score Duffey doesn’t even get credit for hold.
  6. jorgenswest
    In order for the scorer to give the win to Thorpe they must determine that Duffey’s performance was both brief and ineffective. I think the reality is very different. Duffey came in facing the tying run and needing to put out a fire. He faced the heart of the order with no outs from the stretch. WPA Duffey 0.111 Thorpe 0.075 It really doesn’t matter that Thorpe pitches well or possibly better. The determination needs to be about Duffey’s performance. Do you see it as both brief and ineffective? The example given is when a reliever gives up 3 runs and then their team retakes the lead. Is that how you see Duffey’s contribution?
  7. jorgenswest
    Great job by bullpen though Duffey comes out of the game without a hold or win to his record. His stopping of the Yankee momentum was critical. Two runs in. Tying run at the plate. Heart of the order. No outs. One fat pitch and the four run lead has vanished. He gets out with a clean inning. Stops the momentum. I would have given him the win. In support he had the highest WPA among the pitchers. Thorpe was awesome also. Seems like Duffey should at least have a hold in the box score.
  8. jorgenswest
    The 4 walks in 6 innings still make me wonder about command but I was looking at pitch level data for the comment. First pitch strike and zone % well below career norms. I would be concerned if I were a Cubs fan.
  9. jorgenswest
    Relief pitching is so difficult to assess. I thought they should have signed Kimbrel because he was available and ready a month before the deadline. It wouldn’t have helped thus far. He has struggled and can’t find his command. It could be a long three years for the Cubs.
  10. jorgenswest
    They have one spot that Stewart is holding instead of Magill. They felt they needed Stewart for length after Magill’s last awful performance. Stewart’s performance against the middle of the A’s lineup was critical to the win. They must have assessed that Duffey and Littell are better options than Morin and Mejia. That might be an incorrect assessment. They could have optioned the two and retained Morin and Mejia. I don’t think the three were removed because they needed space. I think they were removed because the Twins assessed that they weren’t better than the players they can shuttle between AAA and the majors.
  11. jorgenswest
    Prices aren’t clear to me. I don’t see any completed moves for top relievers yet. I think there are some third tier pitchers that teams will move now knowing that they may not go at the end. The first on the handful of top tier relievers hasn’t moved yet. No urgency for the seller. They know they can move them on the 31st. I am ready to significantly overpay and lose the deal to get a reliever. I think that is what it will take today.
  12. jorgenswest
    Four tight baseball games. Two very good teams. Bring on the Yankees.
  13. jorgenswest
    That isn’t how I saw it. Olson was going to be his most difficult hitter and he didn’t give him anything in the middle of the plate. His third pitch was in the strike zone but called. I though he attacked the last three hitters. He worked ahead and didn’t give them any fat pitches with two strikes. I don’t think he got to three balls in any of them. How did you see it as effectively wild (which is often used as a back hand compliment)? I saw him pitch carefully to the guy who would do the most damage and attack the three others.
  14. jorgenswest
    Really nice work from Kohl Stewart.
  15. jorgenswest
    Duffey has only pitched 4 innings with no rest. In those 4 innings he has given up half his runs on the season.
  16. jorgenswest
    Any thought to deleting the thread here? In the moment humans have reactions in the extreme all the time. His initial perception is real but after some time to let it sit his new reality is just as real. We can let it go too or we can go on for pages in the initial moment.
  17. jorgenswest
    I think that will happen but it is going to take 10 days. I do think lower tier players will get moved earlier. I do think teams might be trying to move some difficult to trade contracts. The Twins might make one of these deals and get a 7th inning guy we see as similar to May in the next few days. They need someone to match with Rogers though. They need a top starter. There aren’t very many of these guys and the sellers are wise to wait and play the buyers against each other. The Twins would have to make them an offer that they are absolutely certain won’t be beat.
  18. jorgenswest
    I am not sure it is lack of urgency. They need to find a seller and sellers have no reason for urgency. If you have one of the best relievers or starters in the market it is to your advantage to wait. There are more buyers than sellers. The Twins could overpay significantly and win a deal today. I would think that is a move of desperation rather than urgency.
  19. jorgenswest
    I don’t see it that way. The cash is minimal. Morin’s contract is minimal. My perception is they want to improve the bullpen. My perception doesn’t matter though. Berrios’ perception is real and the front office should be concerned. I doubt it was this one move that caused the response from Jose. Maybe perceptions will change if they take on some contracts at the deadline.
  20. jorgenswest
    Happy for Hendriks. He has been DFA’d several times but it is still very frustrating how the Twins developed him. He came up too early 22 and wasn’t ready. In his two main seasons with the Twins he started 24 games. Who was his main catcher? Ryan Doumit caught 11 of those starts. Josmil Pinto and Chris Herman caught 3 each. I am sure Gardenhire was thinking something like... “Hendriks has good control we can afford to start Doumit here.” He would then complain about him nibbling. The reality is a guy like Hendriks that can paint the black needs a catcher that can frame that pitch on the black. Instead with Doumit his pitches needed to catch more of the strike zone inside the black to be called a strike and we saw the results. Last night Hendriks was nibbling in the high 90s painting the black for two innings, Herrman had someone teach him how to receive a ball and thankfully that era of Twin baseball is in the rear view mirror. I am hopeful that the Twins will find some value in a talent like Littell. That would not have happened in 2012.
  21. jorgenswest
    FIP uses home runs and xFIP use fly balls. Since fly ball rate stabilizes much earlier than home run rate, xFIP will stabilize sooner. Neither is very useful for a reliever if we want to predict forward based on a partial season but if one must be used xFIP would be more reliable.
  22. jorgenswest
    Rogers use is similar to Hader’s this year with about the same number of appearances and innings (particularly since becoming the closer). This isn’t the traditional use of a closer but maybe fewer appearances and warm ups is better on the arm. I don’t think Rogers has warmed up very often without entering the game.
  23. jorgenswest
    With relievers and their inherent small sample we can probably pick stats to fit any narrative. Did you know that Duffey has not allowed an inherited runner to score this year? Did you know he has an xFIP- of 81? I will add that his K%-BB% of 22.4% is well above league average and only Rogers is better on the Twins. That narrative is very different from a horrible pitcher. My point isn’t that he is a valuable reliever but only that it is very difficult to use the result based stats available to us to argue one way or the other about the value of a reliever. At Duffey’s 133 batters faced the only result based stats starting to stabilize are strikeout rate and walk rate but even then I don’t think it is enough sample to project the next few months reliably.
  24. jorgenswest
    There aren’t very many dominating starters. They really make a difference in the playoffs. They have been nearly impossible for the Twins to develop within or acquire in free agency. Like all pitchers, their injury risk is high. The Twins need to pay up and take the risk.
  25. jorgenswest
    Nice work by Gibson. That is the kind of start against a good team that can win a playoff game. Rogers is awesome. Another two inning save. I love how Rosario was ready on that first pitch. It was a really good at bat by Sano to draw a walk. He had a hard time laying off those pitchers on the low outside edge earlier in the season. So often it would be a strike called on his attempt to check his swing. It was also an alert play with a good secondary to get home on the passed ball. Loved the defensive play by Gonzalez in the outfield. He has been so reliable at so many spots.
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