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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Lance Lynn among Dave Cameron’s free agent land mines. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-2018-free-agent-landmines/
  2. jorgenswest
    The point is that a third catcher can add flexibility on the bench that you don’t get with a first baseman. Teams value that flexibility more in the playoffs but it can add value. I went back to 2000 to find a 1B. Gibbons stuck with Baltimore. He was older and had great OPS in AA the previous year. His bat was ready to be a platoon player. He wasn’t stashed. He played. I can’t find anyone similar to Diaz. Why aren’t there comps to Diaz of a low A rule 5 1B stashed by a team for a season? Catchers get stashed frequently. I don’t think it is the same.
  3. jorgenswest
    Sigh... How about Maddon on the flexibility of a third catcher? http://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/chicago-cubs/why-maddon-cubs-opted-keep-three-catchers-after-miguel-monteros-return Or maybe Girardi... http://web.yesnetwork.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140821&content_id=90729754&vkey=news_milb Astros appreciated the flexibility of a third catcher in the playoffs https://climbingtalshill.com/2017/09/30/astros-most-likely-to-carry-three-catchers-in-the-playoffs/ We disagree on whether a third catcher adds flexibility. Coming back with “This makes no sense” as if no one in their right mind would consider it is just annoying.
  4. jorgenswest
    Except a team might pinch hit for their catcher which makes that third catcher useful. I don’t know if a team will be pinch hitting for their first baseman. The Padres pinch hit for their catchers at least 32 times last year. There will be more but I don’t know how to count the times that they pinch hit for the catcher and then did not go out in the field again. I can’t imagine a team pinch hitting at 1B that many times. Even if they did, there are many players on the team that could play 1B. Diaz brings no worthwhile major league skills to the table. Being able to play 1B isn’t helpful.
  5. jorgenswest
    The challenge with Diaz is that he doesn’t have any skill close to major league ready. Select an up the middle player and they can contribute with the glove and often positional flexibility. Guys who play middle infield or centerfield often can be used as pinch runners. Pitchers can be given low leverage innings. What do you do with Diaz on the bench? He would likely be the worst pinch hit, running and glove option on the bench.
  6. jorgenswest
    Is there a 20 day rule about options? He would have been recalled in September just short of 20 days.
  7. jorgenswest
    Was his first appearance as the 26th man in a double header? Does it matter? He was optioned August 18 and recalled September 4. Does that matter?
  8. jorgenswest
    Do you like Pentecost over Garver? In the long run he could be much better. However, I think he has TJ prior to being drafted and three shoulder surgeries since. As a result he has caught 20 games since 2014. Being selected and stashed will be another year of lost development. He really deserves a chance to play a few full seasons in the minors to develop his catching and have a real shot at a major league career.
  9. jorgenswest
    I think someone could take Burdi with the knowledge he would need to start on the 25 man roster in 2019 and finish his 90 days. At that point, if he needs more minor league time he could be sent out. I would imagine that it will take him some time to regain his command which was a big problem prior to TJ. It is hard to imagine he will be useful before 2020. Winkler is a similar case. He still hasn’t paid off for the Braves after 3 years and many days on the DL.
  10. jorgenswest
    Rule 5 and 60 day DL https://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/ask-ba-deciphering-disabled-lists-rule-5-draft/#LegrR4ciGcXfx7Rt.97
  11. jorgenswest
    It might be stats. I think more likely it is measuring a player’s long term ceiling vs. their real need to have enough of the 40 man roster devoted to players that can make a 2018 contribution. Anyone they protest by adding now, they can’t drop later this winter. They can remove Slegers and Boshers to make room for a free agent. Stewart and Burdi will be of no help in 2018. They must feel that they can do better than Reed and Bard who might have helped. None of the four have high ceilings.
  12. jorgenswest
    Yankees added more international money today.
  13. jorgenswest
    Seth - you are not wrong on Diaz if he gets selected.
  14. jorgenswest
    They have to wonder whether May can stay healthy as a reliever. If they go with the reliever role, they need to avoid pitching him on back to back days.
  15. jorgenswest
    I expect the Twins will throw fewer change ups. They ranked 8th in change up frequency and 23rd in change up effectiveness. That 23rd is only that high because Santiago had one of the most effective change ups in baseball at 7.2 runs above average. The rest of the team was -14.3. Kyle Gibson was the only other starter with a positive change up. I expect them to help pitchers make their best pitch even better. Tyler Duffey entered in 2015 with an effective fastball and curve ball. My impression from reading reports is that there was a lot of emphasis in Duffey developing his change up. Would it have been better if he put in that energy towards making his promising curve ball better? Ryan Pressly had one of the better curve balls in the league. Can he improve it further? Is he throwing it enough? They need to work pitchers and make their best pitches better.
  16. jorgenswest
    Over three to four years, I think there is more upside in Chatwood than Lynn. Chatwood’s peripherals last year and age project to that better upside. I also wonder if remixing his pitch mix and sequence holds some unrealized value. It might be best to pass on both and go after a pitcher that can lead in the playoffs. Go after Darvish. Seek Cole in a trade. Failing that wait until the deadline. At that point a prospect like Lewis may have taken another step forward and be the piece that can bring in that top pitcher. Chatwood does have my interest though but it mainly relies on the possibility of unrealized value that may not be there. Signing a guy like this requires thorough homework and a talented staff.
  17. jorgenswest
    Earlier this year Chatwood and his change up made fangraph’s underthrown pitch series. https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/underthrown-pitches-and-the-pitchers-who-underthrow-them-vol-3-sliders-and-changeups/ The combination of leaving Coors and the possibility of better utilizing his pitch mix are intriguing.
  18. jorgenswest
    At the risk of derailing this conversation further by replying to the constant push back I will clarify once more and then I suggest we might ignore each other after your last word. - I suggested buy big or seek a trade. Darvish is far enough above league average that he is much more likely to be a guy we want starting in the playoffs as he declines into his 30s. - I use strikeout and walk rate because it stabilizes in a small sample. There is real reason to be concerned about Lynn’s strike out and walk rates as well as his move to AL. - I started with that teams must do their homework. The skill of our front office in projecting the performance out 3-4 years is critical. The data available to teams makes this possible. I would endorse opening the coffers for Darvish and be very cautious about committing to Lynn.
  19. jorgenswest
    Darvish
  20. jorgenswest
    I think I would either spend big or seek a trade. Failing either of those, I would wait until trade deadline and pay for a rental. Santana is the exception for signing league average pitchers to a 4 year contract into their 30s. There are more Nolascos than Santanas.
  21. jorgenswest
    I think I do have enough doubts not to be the team that gives him a 4 or 5 year contract. There is a high likelihood that he will decline and be a Nolasco like burden on a team. I would go after the top pitchers and failing that seek a trade. As for FIP and xFIP, in his 5 years he has outperformed in 3 of them so his career numbers after this season are better. The difference was negligible entering the season with an ERA of 3.38 and FIP of 3.39. The weight of this season has significant impact on his career numbers. Is that what you meant by throughout?
  22. jorgenswest
    Simply responding to an earlier question about first half/second half in response to significant downturn in rates. I think that poster had hoped they improved during the season as he moved further away from TJ. They didn’t. Not everyone returns to their pre TJ level. Not every pitcher pitches as well at 31 as 28. Any team signing Lynn really needs to do their homework. They need to be confident that he will return close to his age 28 level. His value in fWAR was very similar to that of Gibson in 2017. The Twins don’t need to pay big dollars for that performance.
  23. jorgenswest
    First half k/bb 22.0/9.0 Second half 17.0/11.3 His first half number were close but worse than his career norms. His second half and season overall were significantly worse than career norms entering 2017. Not everyone comes all the way back from Tommy John. The Twins need to do their homework here. His reasonable 2017 ERA is of little value projecting 2018-2021. His poor 2017 FIP and xFIP are more telling of the future than his ERA.
  24. jorgenswest
    With the lowest K rate at 19.7% and high walk rate at 10.1% of his career, any team should carefully do their homework. His career rates entering this season were 23.1% and 8.7%. I think both numbers have shifted in the wrong direction significantly. The drop and the move to the AL seems a very risky signing.
  25. jorgenswest
    I don’t think it would be wise to give him an extension beyond two years even if that means he gets a boost next year plus two more. He likely wouldn’t take the deal and move on. Even at two years, I don’t think it is a wise move. Polanco’s best fit is probably 2B.
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