Jump to content
Can the Twins take advantage of a reeling Mets team? Join the discussion! ×
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

jorgenswest

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    8,082

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    9

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Whatever the deal, the debate following should be deal or no deal. It shouldn't be the Twins should have forced the Braves to take a package of lesser prospects or take more money and a lesser prospect. Neither the Braves or the Twins are pressed for money. With the demand for starting pitching greater than the supply, the Braves are in a great position of setting the bar high and have no reason to lower that bar with so much time before the deadline.
  2. jorgenswest
    The Braves would be wise to demand a better prospect rather than demand the Twins (or any other team) pay the entirety of his salary. They are doing well at the gate this year. They can't be pressed against their budget. Since they can pay, they can seek the single best prospect offered. That is so much better for them than to take a package or a lesser prospect and dollars. If a team feels stretched at the prospect they can the offer to send back a lesser prospect or cash rather than lower the bar on the return. They have a lot of time between now and the deadline. Any deal they take now would have to exceed their expectations. Over the long term, the Twins will likely lose on this deal. It is part of doing business as a contender at the trade deadline. It is great to be a contender though. Whether it is Thorpe or Blankenhorn or Stewart or Garvin, it is going to hurt. The gamble is that the Twins go 7-6 as opposed to 5-8 in the 13 Garcia starts. Those two wins can offset that hurt.
  3. jorgenswest
    Is it possible that he was given a two start leash by the front office? It might be show something in two starts or be released or retire.
  4. jorgenswest
    The comps are close but they would need to do better than Thorpe to comp Luzardo. Thorpe's injury history is compounded by the need to make a 40 man roster decision. The Nats have a lot of time to work with Luzardo.
  5. jorgenswest
    It is hard to imagine Santana ever having more value than he will at this deadline.
  6. jorgenswest
    Either because he is not on the market or because the Twins can't match the market, Archer should not be considered as a trade target.
  7. jorgenswest
    The starting pitcher bar has been set very high. The Cubs must have contacted the Rays trying to get Archer with a similar package. They Rays must want more. They must have contacted the A's to try to get Gray without giving up Jimenez. Do the A's even take the Twins phone call if the starting point is Gordon? I am sure the Rays don't. If this sets the market for starting pitchers, I hope the Twins are listening on Santana and cautious about trying to acquire a starter.
  8. jorgenswest
    What would it have taken from the Twins system to beat that deal?
  9. jorgenswest
    Trading for Quintana probably means they will come up a little behind the Indians and Royals this year a little behind the White Sox in the future.
  10. jorgenswest
    This may be a better comp to the '84 team that made a run. They were 43-41 at the break. Key players were 23-25. They were not active in the trade market. They made two August deals that did no compromise the future. They sent a AAA pitcher, Jay Pettibone, in an August deal to try to fill an enormous void at SS in veteran Chris Speier. He didn't. They sent an A+ 2B prospect, Carson Carroll, to the Mariners for Pat Putnam to try to find someone that could give them offense from DH. He didn't. It would have been easy at the time to suggest they trade the empty bats of Puckett or Gaetti for a pitcher or bat that would make a difference down the stretch. Glad they didn't.
  11. jorgenswest
    Sam Fuld had a .379 OBP throughout three seasons in the minors at the time he hit the majors. It didn't translate well to the majors because it wasn't backed up by ISO. He even had an AZFL split of 402/492/696 in 126 PAs. How different in skills is Zach Granite from Sam Fuld?
  12. jorgenswest
    Kintzler is a free agent after this year. Dozier, Escobar and possibly Santana after next year. They might be sold. The remaining trade assets are under control for several years. I wouldn't trade Polanco unless the return has a similar number of years of team control. I think they are sellers but the only asset they must sell is Kintzler. The only other reasonable option with him is a one year extension. He is 32. For many relievers the shift from useful to liability is abrupt. The Twins needs to be on a one year commitment when that happens to Kintzler.
  13. jorgenswest
    The last administration traded athletic young outfielders before seeing them in their prime. Gomez after his 23 year old season and Hicks after his 25 year old season. They stuck with Span through age 28. Revere was 24. Need a center fielder? Don't develop them. Just wait until they struggle for a few years in Minnesota and then take them in for the prime of their careers. I hope this administration is committed to seeing their young and talented players through their struggles. Buxton, Kepler and Polanco showed enough in the minors very young for their leagues. In fact, they are all younger than Granite. They need tremendous patience as they develop in the majors. We couldn't even give Hicks 1000 plate appearances. Gomez just over 1000. I would want to see closer to 2000 plate appearances with this trio. The Twins need to buyers for their primes.
  14. jorgenswest
    He had a start on June 28. I assume he has been throwing. He can start on the 13th for Rochester and be ready for a start against the Yankees the 18th. I agree that they don't think much of the AAA pitching depth beyond their plan to have Berrios and Mejia as depth behind Santana, May, Gibson, Santiago and Hughes. It wasn't enough depth. Duffey is valuable in his relief role. Time to take a shot on Colon.
  15. jorgenswest
    Love the view of Britton going to back up third and turning after realizing Buxton is already there.
  16. jorgenswest
    I don't see the Padres taking someone that they will need to take to arbitration. They should be seeking most of the 6 years of control in any player acquired. They are too far away from being competitive. I just don't see Escobar meeting their needs and they can do better than Rosario.
  17. jorgenswest
    I don't think it conflicts and neither characterizes his approach as slap happy.
  18. jorgenswest
    I have no thought of trading him. The Twins need pitching. If he can be a starter next year, the cost of replacing his 6th/7th inning role in terms of prospects or free agent dollars is cheaper than adding a starter. To that end, they can give a Hildenberger (or a different young pitcher) his relief role now while he shows in the rotation whether the huge discrepancies between xFIP and ERA was really poor defense and luck or whether his ERA was a better indicator of skill than xFIP and SIERA. There is a very good chance that his ERA from 2016 was not a good indicator of his skill level. Other teams find ways to stretch out pitchers. There are solid starting pitchers living on a fastball and breaking ball over 90% of the time. These seem to be two paradigms that Molitor and Allen don't want to test.
  19. jorgenswest
    How much time would it take to stretch out Duffey? He is probably good into the mid 30s today. Seems like the Royals stretched outs their Duffy to a point where he was into the 6th inning by his third start. Peacock, Delgado, Montgomery and others have done it this season without going to the minors. The stretching out part and the third pitch part are empty words. Pitchers have been successful throwing a breaking ball and fastball over 90% of the time. Relievers are getting stretched about by other teams without going to the minors. Duffey is valuable to the bullpen but the cost of acquiring a starter is much greater than the cost of a 7th inning reliever. Duffey had the best SIERA and xFIP among their starters last year leading to the best projections among starters entering this year. His ERA awful last year was but the combination of poor defense as shown by a huge drop in double play rate and his unsustainably high hr/fb shouldn't be ignored. To me, he is much more worthy of a half season of starts than any other option they have in the organization. The Twins have an opportunity to see Hildenberger in the Duffey role and Duffey in the Hughes/Turley/Jorge/Matt/Tepesch role. If Hildenberger can come close to matching Duffey, I think Duffey will out perform the others. Maybe they will learn that both are valuable pieces of the 2018 team.
  20. jorgenswest
    I had not heard this before. I would like to know more. Is there a study you can link? I would have been of the belief that day to day variation on performance would be a good amount of ramdom noise as well as a correlation to the skill of the current day starter.
  21. jorgenswest
    Nice start by Gibson. At the time he was sent down, someone from the front office spoke about the reason on the Twins Insider Show. It wasn't mechanical but he needed to be more aggressive (may have wrong word). Molitor has referenced nibbling following nearly every start since his return. I sense that this might be harder to fix than a mechanical adjustment. It could be a career long battle for him.
  22. jorgenswest
    I think there was authenticity in the fact that they hurried Hughes' return. He had another relief appearance scheduled in AAA but was brought back early when Breslow needed to be put on DL.
  23. jorgenswest
    Isn't he on the DL? I don't get the reference.
  24. jorgenswest
    Is there any mathematics that supports that those statistics above are meaningful for projecting his performance the next few months? Many of those numbers become meaningful in a much much larger sample. At his current sample, only strike out rate starts to be meaningful for projecting future performance. Isn't that what matters? The Twins decision to release him should be based on how they project his future performance this year. I am not arguing that many of the plate appearance and inning level numbers are not different. They are different and they are lousy. I am arguing that they are not good indicators at this sample of how he will perform the remainder of the season. They also don't indicate that he will pitch like he did on 2015 and 2016. Those samples are also small. I appreciate the discussion but I don't think I have any more to contribute. It is hard to put aside my math/statistics background when engaging in discussion related to data.
  25. jorgenswest
    Walk rates very more than strike out rates and take longer to stabilize. It could also be random variation. Is there a significant difference in his pitch level data? That would be telling. The reason performance varies greater for relievers than any other position is not the variability of their skill level but rather the size of the sample for which their performance is based. It doesn't matter to the data whether you are a starter or reliever. They begin to stabilize at the same point. He what's walked 12 batters in the 141 batters he has faced. Might be 136 - do they count an intential walk as a batter faced when you don't throw a pitch? That can even happen to the first batter you face. In 2015, he walked 13 batters in 149 batters faced. Is it enough difference in this sample to support a change in skill level? Last year he walked 4 in 186. Likely random variation due to sample and not a skill change. All I am trying to say is that we can't go by the at bat level or inning level data to make conclusions about how he will perform the remainder of the season. The sample doesn't support that conclusion. The Twins may well have pitch level data related to command that does support a change in skill level.
×
×
  • Create New...